Utopia Talk / Politics / Crypto corner 2.0

Habebe Member	Fri Jul 30 15:54:08 http://www...fter-extreme-price-swings/amp/ Some new German law is set to bring in institutional investors. Ill post the last few posts frommthe last thread next.
Habebe Member	Fri Jul 30 15:56:15 Nhill- Member Thu Jul 29 17:55:30 Soon they will have fee free shorting, also. I can't wait for that. It's already on AAVE v2 for Ethereum. Soon to be released for AAVE Polygon. Then I can go short and long at will, doesn't matter how many times I swap. Will be able to accumulate alpha if I want to trade the 5-15 minute charts for a while. Habebe Member Thu Jul 29 18:11:14 So basically, lets say you buy BTC at 34, it jumps to 39, then you convert it to AAVE and cash out for free? nhill Member Thu Jul 29 18:16:26 Yes. But you can convert it to $DAI to guarantee your gains locked in $USD terms. $DAI == Crypto USD Habebe Member Thu Jul 29 18:35:01 So instead of just cashing out your stalling it in a stable coin to withdraw at whatever pace suits you. Or lets say you want to convert BTC into ETH. You first convert the BTC to AAVE and then to ETH? nhill Member Thu Jul 29 19:27:10 > So instead of just cashing out your stalling it in a stable coin to withdraw at whatever pace suits you. Yes, to accumulate more as it goes up and down. > Or lets say you want to convert BTC into ETH. You first convert the BTC to AAVE and then to ETH? You can convert straight from BTC to ETH on the platform. Habebe Member Thu Jul 29 21:09:33 "You can convert straight from BTC to ETH on the platform" Cool, that's what I was unsure of. Sorry to ask so many questions, but Im guessing this isnt on coinbase, how would one go about being able to trade with nongas fees? Like I get its on thwndefi network, but how would I get into that? nhill Member Thu Jul 29 22:59:51 Habebe Coinbase doesn't support withdrawals directly to the polygon network. Here's what you'd do: 1. Create an Ethereum wallet (Metamask works fine). 2. Send your Ethereum to the wallet address (it'll take up to 20 minutes). 3. Add the Polygon Network to Metamask. Here's how you do that: http://doc...sk/config-polygon-on-metamask/ nhill Member Thu Jul 29 23:00:30 4. Use the Polygon bridge to send your Ethereum to the Polygon network. (http://wallet.matic.network/bridge/) nhill Member Thu Jul 29 23:01:28 5. Go to AAVE (http://app.aave.com/dashboard) and select the Polygon network. From here, you can deposit your Ethereum into AAVE and start earning interest on it. Habebe Member Thu Jul 29 23:04:31 Awesome, thanks. nhill Member Thu Jul 29 23:04:44 If you want to have fee free swaps, you must have the assets deposited into AAVE. I use http://zapper.fi/dashboard exchange function to convert cryptocurrencies for that. AAVE (on Polygon) supports $DAI, $USDC, $USDT, $AAVE, $ETH, $BTC, and $MATIC. I would recommend breaking your crypto into $DAI, $ETH, $BTC, $AAVE, and $MATIC. But it depends on what you want to trade. I wouldn't recommend $USDT (Tether) because it has systemic risks and you can't use it as collateral (due to the systemic risk). You can deposit all the cryptos you want to trade and then swap from the AAVE dashboard. nhill Member Thu Jul 29 23:05:37 DeFi is not very user friendly right now, as you can tell. It's extremely early yet, a glimpse of the future. But let me know if you get stuck and I can proffer some guidance, as I've been doing this for over a year.
nhill Member	Fri Jul 30 19:46:34 http://uto...hread=88389&time=1627617937910 for posterity
nhill Member	Fri Jul 30 19:49:18 Germany news certainly looks bullish. I closed my short earlier at $39300, but didn't feel like making a whole new thread. :) Not opening a long quite yet. Still want to see consolidation above the range. But crypto is back baby! We won't have to hear from Osama and Dukhat for another three years. LMAO
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Sun Aug 01 06:45:54 We need a nice good sell off now.
Seb Member	Sun Aug 01 10:13:12 Not worried by the US infrastructure bill then?
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Sun Aug 01 10:31:29 Us the members of the crypto church were clear, that regulation was desirable. This bill isn’t a worry as much as it it is another step on the ladder of broader acceptance.
Seb Member	Sun Aug 01 13:15:03 Nim: Yes, but applying blanket KYC regs is going to hit volume of trade. It might be good for the industry in the long term, but I would not expect it to be good for prices in the short term.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Sun Aug 01 13:29:36 I have not read the details of the bill, it seems to only apply to the central exchanges like Binance and not DEX, unsure how it will affect those. Presumably Defi is going under the radar, I would be surprised if the lawmakers had even heard of it. Taken at face value, what you are saying sounds like great news. One of the weaknesses of crypto as an alternative currency, if it is ever going to be viable broadly, is the volatility. It is as has been said like the wild west right now, measures that can aid in scaring away the bandits and pirates is good news.
Seb Member	Sun Aug 01 14:26:31 Kristin Smith, executive director of the Blockchain Association, told CoinDesk the draft language could mean a number of individuals interacting with crypto may have to start reporting their transactions. “We interpret this to mean software wallet developers, hardware wallet manufacturers, multisig service providers, liquidity providers, DAO token holders and potentially even miners,” she said.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Sun Aug 01 14:59:57 That sounds retarded, wallet developers have no insight into transactions. And the wallter developer that some how tries to code this into the wallet, is not going to get used by anyone. So this may actually be really stupid and completely useless.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Sun Aug 01 15:07:20 This may even be worse than me assuming Defi going under the radar, they don't even understand how this works at all and have drafted a regulatory scheme that will be impossible to comply with. Back to the drawing board or the industry will move.
nhill Member	Sun Aug 01 20:43:52 The IRS won't be able to enforce the scope of the bill. But I'm happy to see regulations get started. The first regulations are most certainly going to fall on their face and then get iterated upon. But the US infrastructure bill is huge. Yet another stepping stone on crypto eating the digital world. Unfortunately, Seb's totally missing out on it. :'( There's going to be some many people in these forums begging us for crypto advice in the next decade, lol. I'll be happy to help, as always! Btw, DeFi already falls under the purview of tax laws in the USA, so this merely gives the IRS more definite guidelines for enforcement. A very bullish move for crypto as a whole. Once the taxes start flowing in a quantifiable way, they'll never want to take it away. :)
nhill Member	Sun Aug 01 21:10:09 Oh, and I don't actually care about the price of crypto at any specific point in time. I'm trading with a tiny sum (1-2% of crypto) for fun and edification. But it makes no difference to me if Bitcoin is $1,000 or $100,000. I'm in it for the tech, and because I can see (increasingly) obvious trends and get ahead of them. Same reason why I started coding AI years ago. Was a programmer for decades but it's easy to see where things are headed if you have an open mind. I know it's uncomfortable at first.
nhill Member	Sun Aug 01 21:39:23 Buy ETH @ 2560. Is this really all the dip we're going to get here? :/ Looks bullish.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Mon Aug 02 05:05:48 Yea I was expecting a 15% drop :(
nhill Member	Mon Aug 02 11:39:08 Closing @ 2660 Let’s get a do more please
nhill Member	Mon Aug 02 11:39:33 Autocorrect. Dip now please *
nhill Member	Mon Aug 02 11:50:07 My thought here was a double top (yesterday's high) with slightly lower high on the 30 min chart looks bearish.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Mon Aug 02 14:26:13 Mm yes take me back to 2100s :,)
nhill Member	Mon Aug 02 14:58:02 "Take Me Home, Country Roads" by John Denver http://youtu.be/1vrEljMfXYo?t=148
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Mon Aug 02 15:33:47 Sweet song. This is crazy though, day by day this is the longest unbroken upward trend since, forever?
nhill Member	Mon Aug 02 16:49:12 It did it in 2012 for 1 more day, and 2013 for the same streak. But this is the first such stream in about 8 years! Now we are finally correcting...I'm short long 60%/40% in my portfolio at the moment (short $BTC, long $ETH), but on my signals here I'm all closed out, waiting for a good entry. I'm not sure if I mentioned this but I almost never have a long or short only position when trading. Usually do a 60/40 in crypto. Helps even out the volatility, and you can react quicker to price moves (e.g. I was 60/40 long/short earlier today, but took profits on my long position to flip it to short/long). It's called hedging. ;)
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Mon Aug 02 17:21:14 Funny you would say that now, so far I have only had the mental faculty to play one crypto at a time and that has mainly been ETH. But the past few days I have been looking at both ETH and BTC and noticed they are doing their own thing short term. It feels so risky though 8 years in crypto years is like 8 millennia on the stock market, right? :) Feels like any day now we are gonna go and test the 50 day MA. BTC is getting some resistance on the 100 day MA, but ETH looks like it is steaming on. That feels even riskier to my untrained eyes. What are you going on?
nhill Member	Mon Aug 02 17:44:01 Buying ETH @ $2622 Was looking for more of a dip but it looks bullish again.
nhill Member	Mon Aug 02 17:46:14 Nim It's less risky if you go long/short, what exactly feels risky? Risk can be managed...hedged, by picking longs and shorts. I'm long ETH and a bunch of alts (I have one that is so early that it could be a 5000%er). Shorting $BTC. This way crypto becomes less volatile and more manageable.
nhill Member	Mon Aug 02 17:58:40 Also, I'm now using DeFi services on Ethereum, Fantom, Solana, Polygon, Optimism, and Binance Smart Chain. Such an exciting environment!
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Mon Aug 02 18:46:37 Sorry my friend, I am not speaking your language, yes risk can be mitigated in the technical sense here. It is my greed risking to loose opportunities he is wishing for, chasing shooting stars and unicorns, thinking I can catch every high and low.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Mon Aug 02 18:55:52 So my real question is what are you basing the prognosis for ETH and BTC?
nhill Member	Mon Aug 02 19:11:24 I think the simplest way to explain it is this: How confident, in probability terms, are you that <insert favored crypto> is going to go up right now? Let's say the answer is 80%. You can express that probability in a risk managed way, by going long 80% of <insert favored crypto> and short 20% of <insert least favored crypto>. ------- So if you can come up with a probability, why not express it in your portfolio? There's no need to be 100% confident one way or another. You can take profits on both the short side or long side either way. Then adjust. ------ Now the magic here is if your most favored crypto performs better than your least favored crypto, you can actually still make money! Like yesterday, I was up 4.22% on my long Ethereum, short Bitcoin trade. But Ethereum was only up 4% at the time! However, Bitcoin was down -0.37%. It wasn't really the reason behind it, but you can make more on the way up by choosing pairs to long / short. Provided one goes up and the other goes down of course. But the other thing this does is it lessons the volatility in your portfolio and allows you to respond to price action both ways quicker. For example, imagine I'm long Ethereum (60%), and short Bitcoin (40%). If Ethereum goes up 20% and now I feel like it's about to correct, what can I do? I can take profits to the point where I'm now 40/60 instead of 60/40. And then make money on the way down too. Then put those profits back into Ethereum once it's bottoming out. This is what hedge funds do to manage their risk. Very common practice in the big leagues to run a long/short portfolio. -------- Be like water, my friend.
nhill Member	Mon Aug 02 19:14:00 As for why ETH over BTC...I think I've explained that a bunch. But right now EIP-1559 is pumping the price so it's a no brainer. Look at this: http://i.imgur.com/xhMnouw.png Just be careful in a couple days. I think Ethereum will dip upon release of EIP-1559. Ever heard the phrase "buy the rumor, sell the news?" It works.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Mon Aug 02 20:00:24 Thank you for the explanation of hedging, these are not things I am familiar with. This is like the first experience I have with actual day trading. However I meant it as a very specific question in this moment in time. ETH long, BTC short as a trade move right now, or perhaps I misunderstood you and you were not talking about it as a short term move. I am still working on my ability to read indicators for when to go in and out, hence my question :)
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Mon Aug 02 20:03:06 "But right now EIP-1559 is pumping the price so it's a no brainer." Right, it has been a shooting star and for quite some time. Time for a correction? This is my instinct for whatever reason, not yours. Why? Asking for a friend :)
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Mon Aug 02 20:09:38 I need to get more news. It is a jungle out there of podcasts, website and such. I heard from somewhere twitter is a really good for crypto news, what you say?
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Mon Aug 02 20:15:18 And god dam it seb, buy some crypto!
nhill Member	Mon Aug 02 22:58:16 Ah, I see now. Sorry, I'm a bit autistic and have difficulties discerning subtleties. Why $ETH over $BTC, right now? Well, $BTC led the recovery. I'm a macro guy at heart. I got into crypto after years of macroeconomics expertise. From a macro perspective, BTC is considered the safe asset in cryptocurrency. It will recover the soonest and then the risk assets will follow. As soon as $BTC broke the top of the range (around 40K) I started longing $ETH & shorting $BTC. I was anticipating a correction in $BTC and that money to flow into $ETH. It never really materialized. $BTC kept going up, but then consolidated under the range. That's when I went even heavier into $ETH. Why, you may ask? Well, I play multiple macro scenarios at any given point of time. I was wrong with $BTC correcting at the top of the range and having the profits flow into $BTC. But that made me turn to thesis #2: if $BTC doesn't correct $ETH will explode (and alts, don't forget I also longed alts... I don't have the time to explain everything in this format, maybe we can do an audio call at some point)... but anyways, it will explode because it's the risk asset. The safe asset led the recovery. People gained confidence in cryptocurrency as a whole. So, naturally, the best investment in the future of cryptocurrency is Ethereum and Alts, not $BTC. Thesis #2 played out for me perfectly. Did I know it would? Not at all. I only arrived there because I was wrong. I had alternative theses to play in that event. If you're curious, if $ETH didn't recover as $BTC consolidated I would have bought call options on MicroStrategy. MicroStrategy is essentially a leveraged version of $BTC, and call options are, well, I assume you're familiar. You are purchasing the rights to 100 shares so it's naturally leveraged. All this was interleaved with EIP-1559, which is a naturally bullish rumor at this point. I say rumor idiomatically. It's not actually a rumor, it's happening. But in Wall Street parlance something is a rumor until it's 99% certain to happen. That's because money is very important to people. So EIP-1559 is going to be a rumor until it's implemented on the mainnet. In the stock market, things can transition from a rumor to news on a Press Release. Why? Because it's against the law to say things material to investing in a public forum if they are known to be false. So stock market investors move the market on rumors of news, then sell on the news itself. In crypto, it's much the same, but it's like the 2nd derivative if you're into calculus. There's the rumor-- this doesn't do anything usually. Then there's the actual confirmation confirmation of the rumor-- this starts the move. Then there's the actual implementation in code-- this causes a sell off. Buy the rumor, sell the news. >I need to get more news. It is a jungle out there of podcasts, website and such. I heard from somewhere twitter is a really good for crypto news, what you say? Twitter is the best source for crypto news.
nhill Member	Mon Aug 02 22:59:25 > Why, you may ask? Well, I play multiple macro scenarios at any given point of time. I was wrong with $BTC correcting at the top of the range and having the profits flow into $BTC. This should have read: I was wrong with $BTC correcting at the top of the range and having the profits flow into $ETH.
nhill Member	Mon Aug 02 23:12:17 The other thing is that now that $BTC is correcting I shouldn't be longing $ETH, really. The EIP-1559 narrative is strong right now. But if I'm honest, I don't have the heart to short Ethereum. So I short $BTC instead and make less money. It's terrible how feelings get in the way of making money, but hey. If I traded on CEX I'd short an alt instead, but I'm limited to ETH, BTC, and MATIC on AAVE. Definitely not shorting $MATIC. That sucker can pop 50% in a day. I should short $ETH during a correction but I never have.
nhill Member	Mon Aug 02 23:13:06 I'm only human, after all. I don't think I could even let my bots short Ethereum, even though it's objectively the right move a lot of times.
nhill Member	Mon Aug 02 23:56:27 Closing Eth @ 2513, things are moving quick here.
nhill Member	Tue Aug 03 01:08:23 > But if I'm honest, I don't have the heart to short Ethereum. I feel guilty for saying that now. So fuck it. Shorting Ethereum for the first time here @ 2484 Bitcoin broke under my big level, and appears to be holding under as resistance. So I'm going short again. Wish me luck! I've had a string of bad signals after being on a hot streak for weeks. Let's see if we can get this alpha ball rolling again!
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Tue Aug 03 06:49:05 Thank you, this is great. At heart I am a macro/long term kind of person. This day trading is really fun and such, but every time I stare at the 1 min 5 min charts for too long, some voice in my head tells me, you are looking at a bump on the elephants ass here. Which is where I spent the first few weeks :) I am not posting every trade here, but as expected it is 2 steps up 2 steps down at times, but profit at a snails pace while learning. On the daily chart, it looks like a trend shift signal is forming for ETH today, one of those evening stars.
Habebe Member	Tue Aug 03 07:00:42 " you are looking at a bump on the elephants ass here. Which is where I spent the first few weeks :)" Well it is an alluring image. http://www...0&bih=518#imgrc=QX-71DuINlT2dM
nhill Member	Tue Aug 03 17:22:20 Shorting more here at $2516
nhill Member	Tue Aug 03 19:12:08 Closing second short at 2487, letting the first one ride.
nhill Member	Tue Aug 03 21:49:12 I might start signaling trades for multiple time frames, anyone interested? I like to trade three time frame: Trade. Trend. Tail. A trade is usually a day trade. From 0-72 hours. A trend is a swing trade. Like 3-14 days. Tail trade is usually longer than 2 weeks. Of course, there's exceptions for exceptional price action (may close a tail trade early if something unexpected happens). The alpha is pouring in my personal account. Now that I have fee free swaps on AAVE I'm making a ton of money on 0.5%-1% trades. But I don't signal them here. Just giving general signals, no particular time frame. If anyone's interested, I could start going fractal on your asses. >:)
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Wed Aug 04 08:42:04 I am always game you know it. :)
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Wed Aug 04 11:15:07 ETH is taking the lead on this one.
nhill Member	Wed Aug 04 11:27:08 Yup it's definitely looking positive. Going to close the short signal at 2693
nhill Member	Wed Aug 04 11:49:11 Okay, cool. I'll start doing various signals. I've been thinking...buy the rumor sell the news is so effective and everyone is talking about it on Twitter and various chat rooms. This makes me suspect the whales may fade the narrative and actually pump up the price to trap retail liquidity (retail as they are selling, which will then force them to re-enter at a higher price). Pondering this...the London hard fork is tomorrow so I have to make a decision. Should I long it or short it? What do you think?
nhill Member	Wed Aug 04 11:50:10 I guess the question is, is this too obvious this time? Last major hard fork, there was a big selloff and then a rally. I wouldn't be surprised in the least if this time it was the opposite.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Wed Aug 04 12:06:33 Yes, but add to that the fact that we are still in the longest upward trend in 8 years. Together with the jump today, I feel staying liquid isn't a bad idea until this fork is done.
nhill Member	Wed Aug 04 12:22:22 Yeah, good point. http://ethernodes.org/london looks like we have 19 hours to go until the hard fork.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Wed Aug 04 12:49:49 It is disappointing that BTC did not set a new high for the period. Maybe the boomer age of crypto is coming to an end.
nhill Member	Wed Aug 04 13:09:49 Yeah...it's like when your parents joined Facebook all of a sudden it wasn't cool anymore. ;)
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Wed Aug 04 13:47:43 You know, I didn't think of it back then, but me losing interest in FB indeed coincided with my parents and their generation of family entering it. Oh, so this is the kind of place this is. Having said that with the fork coming up and the suicidal momentum of ETH demanding a correction, maybe we can ride the boomer and hope it has enough breath to test 42k again? Not great volumes though.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Wed Aug 04 14:07:57 Nhill Is there a way to see volume/action per crypto in a good overview?
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Wed Aug 04 14:16:12 I open a BTC long position at 39516. Looking for at least 40k, if the volumes look good I will hold :)
nhill Member	Wed Aug 04 20:01:43 Buying ETH @ $2706
nhill Member	Wed Aug 04 20:03:21 What type of overview are you looking for specifically? I use the TradingView charts with a pro plus plan that lets met put up to 4 charts in a single layout. It's very nice.
nhill Member	Wed Aug 04 20:05:14 Closing ETH @ $2694. Thought it was going to pop but instead it dropped. Just going to stop out quickly since it's overextended.
nhill Member	Wed Aug 04 23:05:14 Short ETH @ 2719
nhill Member	Wed Aug 04 23:15:56 Closing @ 2710
nhill Member	Wed Aug 04 23:27:15 Short ETH @ 2710 Doing some short time frame trades to take advantage of $0 fees on AAVE.
nhill Member	Wed Aug 04 23:32:47 Closing @ 2700 (TF: Trade) I'll start tagging the timeframe like that.
nhill Member	Wed Aug 04 23:33:46 Short @ 2700 (TF: Trade)
nhill Member	Wed Aug 04 23:36:19 Closing @ 2695 (TF: trade) Still trying to catch dat bounce.
nhill Member	Wed Aug 04 23:44:00 Short @ 2704
nhill Member	Wed Aug 04 23:47:25 Closing @ 2693 (TF: Trade)
nhill Member	Wed Aug 04 23:49:33 Short @ 2693
nhill Member	Wed Aug 04 23:51:04 Closing 2685
nhill Member	Wed Aug 04 23:53:33 Short @ 2693
nhill Member	Wed Aug 04 23:55:48 Closing @ 2694
nhill Member	Wed Aug 04 23:57:27 Okay, I think that's it for some short term day trades tonight :) Volume looks like predictable now. Looks like I made 1.4% on that series of trades in about 50 minutes, surfing the waves on the 1 minute chart.
nhill Member	Wed Aug 04 23:57:40 Volume looks less predictable now, I mean.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Thu Aug 05 05:33:53 I want to see which currencies are the most decoupled from the BTC and ETH in the ahort term and find other waves to ride. Hence the overview. Is this it? 2600-2580 for ETH was the first level I had in mind, but was hoping for more. Difficult to predict as you say.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Thu Aug 05 05:36:48 I ended up closing my btc trade early when I got to bed, out at 39740. +0.5%
nhill Member	Thu Aug 05 08:59:15 Bought ETH @ 2631
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Thu Aug 05 09:19:11 I did a 1,4% on whatever the hell that was. What is going on with BTC? Is it dying?
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Thu Aug 05 09:22:44 I missed most of the fun though :( retrace dam you RETRACE! ROFL
nhill Member	Thu Aug 05 09:22:47 Well. Yeah, pretty much. I've been on the ETH wagon since November of last year. BTC doesn't have much utility, so Ethereum is taking the reins now. I stopped buying any BTC last year when I got into DeFi, and haven't looked back. They released Wasabix on Polygon I noticed, so I'm playing there. It's a much better experience paying fractions of a cent for gas.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Thu Aug 05 09:28:15 And the market seems to have signaled it loud and clear now. I have shifted most of my BTC over to ETH, I only have a small amount of BTC left. For nostalgia :,)
nhill Member	Thu Aug 05 09:29:44 They way I see it is that if I switch from focusing on BTC to ETH it was probably for a good reason (ETH a better experience). And I'm probably not the only one that feels that way. That's the advantage of using DeFi, you naturally gravitate to the best. Keep an eye on Fantom. It's the best ETH competitor that I've tried (and I've tried all the big ones), and still mostly undiscovered. Their $TOMB project is super cool. It pegs the token to $FTM. Kinda like a stablecoin but pegged to the platform crypto instead. It has some novel use cases (they have this thing called $TSHARES which is like owning a stock in the platform, and $TBONDS like owning a bond). The main impetus for the Tomb project was that $FTM is often locked up in validors and staking. So this is a way to get access to $FTM price appreciation without having the temptation to lock it up. Really, quite an interesting implementation, too. It's the first crypto tied algorithmically to another crypto. I'll be very curious to see if they can maintain their peg. Right now the peg is 1.05X off of $FTM, so they have some work to do.
nhill Member	Thu Aug 05 09:38:40 I said it before, I only keep about 1-2% of my crypto to trade. Most of it I keep locked up in DeFi smart contracts of various forms. Trading is fun, but I've made way more money being ahead of the curve on DeFi. That said, there are risks involved. One of the 20 or so projects I've been using got hacked this week. Thankfully, I wasn't on the feature that got hacked, so technically I didn't lose any crypto. But the hacker got away with 20 million USD worth of crypto by using a flash loan to exploit a bug in the code. I did lose money owning some of the token, because it immediately dropped 50% when the hack was discovered. It recovered from there a bit, and I realized a 25% loss moving out my funds. Could have been worse though. That's why I diversify and move all around. I have DeFi smart contracts locked up on Ethereum, Polygon, Binance Smart Chain, Fantom, and Solana right now. I'm keeping an eye on $DERO now too. They are a monero fork that added smart contracts. Still very early, though, they are only on the test net. The cool thing about $DERO is it's fully private (much like Monero except you can also DeFi). It'll be big once it goes on the mainnet. On every other chain your transactions are public. It's like leaving your bank account exposed for the world to see (although if you don't share your public key, people wouldn't be able to know it's you except the exchanges and the govt, unless you mined the crypto instead of buying it with fiat). Imagine DeFi with the security and privacy of an actual bank account. So much potential!
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Thu Aug 05 09:39:17 I hear you. DeFi is really just now taking off, yepp more and more people are hearing about it. Amazon is apparently working on one I heard recently.
nhill Member	Thu Aug 05 09:49:45 Fantom has a market cap of $783,314,570 which I think is criminally undervalued. Cardano has a market cap of $44,019,894,015, and is a way worse project. Doesn't even have smart contracts yet. I see Fantom as having potential to explode 50x from here, assuming it takes its rightful place over Cardano. But if it realizes its full ceiling and can hit Ethereum level market cap? Watch out! It'd be up over 400x from here. Remember these predictions. :) I haven't been wrong yet.
nhill Member	Thu Aug 05 09:52:45 $CELL is another interesting project. Quantum resistant cryptography implemented on a blockchain. That's the future. All cryptos will need to be quantum resistant soon (next 10 years), and this one has an implementation already (albeit test net right now). It's so cheap, it'd be like buying Bitcoin for under a dollar. (market cap a mere 18 million right now). Buying Fantom would be like buying Ethereum for under $2. Lot of big opportunities if you know where to look & read code / whitepapers.
nhill Member	Thu Aug 05 09:55:22 Looks like I was right about Ethereum not being a sell the news situation. I had a nagging feeling that this would be different. Boom. Right on again! It looks like it's starting a bull flag, it'll probably pop again by the end of the day. I was looking at it from a macro perspective. The London hard fork was a huge risk. Mainly people thought it would break tons of things, particularly DeFi projects. But, it's off without a hitch so far! Don't be surprised of Ethereum hits $3000 this week. We're coming back to save Chuck!
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Thu Aug 05 10:03:25 Again, took a few small losses, but more than made up, by thinking about risks and: 1. being able to lower price average 2. accepting small losses when I think the downward trend isn't done. 3. Being patient when I think the trend is up. 4. Not acting impulsively. I think this one punished me the most. Did another trade ->2070 <-2090
nhill Member	Thu Aug 05 10:08:06 Emotions are the enemy when trading. It's good to have a process and stick with it. I get bit by emotions often still, even after a long time having experience (although I did take about half a year off from it, so still rusty). This is why I want to implement my process in an AI-powered bot. It has massive potential.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Thu Aug 05 11:01:33 Yes! And then you can take commission helping UPers out who were too late!
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Thu Aug 05 11:05:38 You were indeed right, ETH kept doing it's own thing unfazed by the London Fork. Another sign of maturity in the system.
nhill Member	Thu Aug 05 11:13:11 Love to see it. :)
nhill Member	Thu Aug 05 16:07:05 Fantom up 8.12% in the past 11 hours.
nhill Member	Thu Aug 05 19:31:09 BTW my ETH call above was a trend. Now I'll call a trade. Shorting BTC @ 40649
nhill Member	Thu Aug 05 19:32:55 Notice how I'm not closing the trend trade :) I think ETH can still pop up (violently so, even) so I'm shorting $BTC to hedge a temporary drawdown. This is how you can sell without actually selling. Also called hedging.
nhill Member	Thu Aug 05 19:38:44 As a reminder. Trade: 0-72 hours (on avg). Trend: 3-14 days (on avg). Tail: 14+ days. So my maximum allocation when doing this is actually 6% of my crypto. As I can dollar cost average once on each timeframe. In reality, my $ETH buy at $1750 was a tail trade (as in I haven't closed it yet and probably won't for about a year or more). But I closed it as a trade, because I wasn't going fractal yet. More to come. Trying to introduce techniques slowly.
nhill Member	Thu Aug 05 19:39:25 > But I closed it as a trade, because I wasn't going fractal yet. I closed it as a trade on the signals I'm providing, that is. In my account, it is still active.
nhill Member	Thu Aug 05 19:41:34 Another key to successful trading is learning how to be long and short at the same time with different allocations. It seems counterintuitive, but in reality your hedging risk on different time frames and reducing the overall volatility on your portfolio. It's also an effective mental model to prevent panic selling or buying. As your tail trades, you make extremely rarely. Your trend trades are infrequent. Your day trades are frequent. Having different accounts for each also helps. I use a different wallet for each time frame.
nhill Member	Thu Aug 05 20:23:19 Closing BTC @ 40140
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