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Utopia Talk / Politics / US finally 50% vaxed!!!
Habebe
Member
Sat Aug 07 00:58:41
http://www...9-cdc/ar-AAN1D51?ocid=BingNews

About a month after I thought.Over a month after my estimate.
TheChildren
Member
Sat Aug 07 01:31:54
100k corona cases a day.
ROFL

butbutbut PFIZAAA? butbutbut it works so well vs sinovac?

ROFL.

OWNED OWNED OWNED !!!

Forwyn
Member
Sat Aug 07 01:34:55
CDC | Data as of: August 6, 2021 6:00am ET. Posted: Friday, August 6, 2021 4:12 PM ET
% of Total Population
One Dose: 58.4%
Full Vaccinated: 50%

Lulz @ jergul
(-146 days)
jergul
large member
Sat Aug 07 04:49:44
Jergul: 50% after January 1st 2022
Ruggy: 50% before January 1st 2022
Sammy: 50% before June 1st 2021 - off 9%
Fowyn: 50% before November 1st 2021
Habebe: 50% before July 1st 2021 - off 3%
State Department: 50% by May 19th 2021 - off 12.2%
Obam: 50% before May 15th 2021 - off 13.8%

=============

Lulz@forwyn
(-86 days)
jergul
large member
Sat Aug 07 04:55:00
Ranking by days:

Habebe 33 days
Sammy 66 days
State department 78 days
Obam 82 days
Forwyn 86 days
Ruggy 145 days
Jergul 146 days

Percentages to be determined in 146 days.
Habebe
Member
Sat Aug 07 05:32:55
If this was the price is right, would atleast get a spin.
Sam Adams
Member
Sat Aug 07 14:20:22
RIP jergul!
Forwyn
Member
Sat Aug 07 16:57:18
jergul be like: "1=-1"
Pillz
Member
Sat Aug 07 18:20:08
I wonder why the norwegian state health authority doesn't revoke jergul's internet access. He is clearly suffering
jergul
large member
Sat Aug 07 20:11:46
Sammy
RIP USA. Your vaccination progress is attrocious.

Forwyn
Disputing that you were 86 days off? How quaint.
jergul
large member
Sat Aug 07 20:12:08
Pillz
Get a life.
Habebe
Member
Sat Aug 07 20:28:43
Meh, Jergul came to grips Being way off on his estimate a while ago, ripping on him for it now feels like beating a dead horse.
Forwyn
Member
Sat Aug 07 22:31:17
"off"

lol jergul, keep being retarded
jergul
large member
Sun Aug 08 03:52:16
habebe
I am hardly way off. Remember that my estimate was made months before yours.

Anyway, the point still stands. The US was going to do really poorly getting vaccines into arms.

You will likely be more off percentage wise than I am.
jergul
large member
Sun Aug 08 03:52:56
Forwyn
You were 86 days off. Lulz.
Habebe
Member
Sun Aug 08 05:49:26
Jergul, IIRC these estimates were all made within like a 2 week time frame.

You need to elaborate how I will be more off % wise than you.
jergul
large member
Sun Aug 08 06:05:18
You recall incorrectly. I was hazed for quite a while before I asked you guys for your best guess.

Vaccination rates slow down.

It took 33 days for vaccination percentages to go from 47 to 50. (3% per 33 days)

It took 33 days for vaccination percentages to go from 41 to 47% (6% per 33 days)

It took 11 days for vaccination percentages to go from 37,8 to 41% (9,6% per 33 days)

It took 4 days for vaccination percentages to go from 36,2% to 37,8% (13,2 per 33 days).
jergul
large member
Sun Aug 08 06:12:33
So 51.5% in 33 days
52.25% in 66 days
52.62% in 99 days
52.79% in 132 days
52.88% next 165 days
etc.


Not that it will play out exactly like that, but that is the elaboration
Habebe
Member
Sun Aug 08 06:18:06
We will have to find the old threads with dates...

It still doesnt explain how my being 33 days off and your being 146 days off could make you closer by percentage.Im drunk. ATM and that still doesn't sound right.
jergul
large member
Sun Aug 08 06:36:08
The number of new vaccinations are slowly trending towards 0. You will never pass 53% if current trends continue. Meaning you will be 3% off and I will be less than 3% off.
Nekran
Member
Sun Aug 08 07:29:24
Yeah... you can all laugh at jergul, but he was way less off than I thought he would be and most of all than he should've been. The US vaccination rate is proper worrying at this point.
Habebe
Member
Sun Aug 08 11:39:22
Jergul/Nekran, Vaccine hesitancy is a serious problem. I'm fairly happy that 70+% of people have atleast 1 shot TBH.

I've never claimed that final rates in the US will exceed Norway, VT is probably a closer comparison anyway.

But I would point out that you can look down at the US all you want, but remember the EU has a big problem with vaccine hesitancy as well.

Sure Norway is going to top the list for vaxes, but so is VT Id imagine.I don't know withers stats off the top of my head but I inow VT pretty well.France and Germany IIRC have pretty steep hills to climb as well as eastern Europe.
Nekran
Member
Sun Aug 08 11:51:43
I'm from Belgium myself. But I am not looking down on it... I'm worried by it. I want high vaccination rates all around the world.
Seb
Member
Sun Aug 08 12:09:09
Hopefully, if they make a nose spray version that might help.
Habebe
Member
Sun Aug 08 12:28:00
Nekran, Agreed. One slight bright side here is that rates have seemingly bottomed out and started to uptick.

Also, plenty of people are probably fine with only one jab.
Habebe
Member
Sun Aug 08 12:42:57
We should offer free whores for vaccines.Get a free blowjob if you get vaxed, I bet rates would jump up.
jergul
large member
Sun Aug 08 13:38:25
58% have the first shot.

The point of my prediction was to highlight what I thought was a very high chance that the US would have trouble vaccinating its population.

Factually, the only thing I got wrong was thinking only 18+ would be vaccinated within the timeframe given (2021). So of course I was off when that changed.

Mission accomplished. This is what, thread 6 on the topic? The issue has indeed been highlighted.
Habebe
Member
Sun Aug 08 13:45:35
70% of the adult pop* my bad.

Still, not terrible.

The most revealing thing to me was how anti vac the EU is.I didnt know they had that sort of issue before.At least not on that scale.
Sam Adams
Member
Mon Aug 09 11:03:25
Jergul still trying to come up with excuses. Lulz.
Sam Adams
Member
Mon Aug 09 11:06:00
Euros, remember to thank the US for leading the vax efforts and saving you.
patom
Member
Mon Aug 09 17:43:37
Here in Maine we have 80% with at least one shot.
TheChildren
Member
Tue Aug 10 10:30:13
230k daily infected. butbutbut ma pfizas?

ya lost control. da numbas r gettin HUGE now.
TheChildren
Member
Tue Aug 10 12:52:35
hai guyz

rememba ur shit fakenewsMEDIA. at this point can we actually still call it "media"? it downright hatespeech and fakenews by now.

http://www...a-vaccines-covid-outbreak.html

http://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/08/five-vaccinated-countries-with-high-covid-rates-rely-on-china-vaccines.html

http://www.forbes.com/sites/roberthart/2021/06/17/chinas-sinovac-vaccine-under-scrutiny-as-covid-soars-in-highly-vaccinated-countries/

just some examples of ur hatemongerin fakenews clubs

over 230k infected last day in ur country. complete loss of control. hospitals pilin up again. daaaammmmnnn son.
TheChildren
Member
Tue Aug 10 12:53:15
u ever heard of da word karma be4?
damn...
kargen
Member
Tue Aug 10 13:00:12
yeah but karma isn't what is causing the increase in covid cases. Look at the people coming across the border that are infected and what states they are being sent to. There you will find a big part of the current spread.

That aside most are unvaccinated so the numbers don't really apply to a conversation about vaccination effectiveness for those who got the shots.

And that Forbes article is spot on.
Forwyn
Member
Tue Aug 10 23:08:29
"butbutbut PFIZAAA? butbutbut it works so well vs sinovac?"

Yes lol

Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine outperforms Sinovac jab in antibody study
02-Aug-2021 By Nick Taylor

HTTP://WWW.BIOPHARMA-REPORTER.COM/ARTICLE/2021/08/02/PFIZER-BIONTECH-COVID-19-VACCINE-OUTPERFORMS-SINOVAC-JAB-IN-ANTIBODY-STUDY
tumbleweed
the wanderer
Tue Aug 10 23:11:01
"Look at the people coming across the border that are infected and what states they are being sent to. There you will find a big part of the current spread."

jesus, dude... you buy whatever they put out... Sad!
TheChildren
Member
Wed Aug 11 00:09:30
"Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine outperforms Sinovac jab in antibody study "

>> ya no00b is that why u have 230k cases yesterday and we have 49 cases?

also 1,4 bill peoples vs 300 mill peoples and u still have almost 1000x more cases?

lol owned
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Wed Aug 11 19:45:24
lol the EU beat the USA to 50% fully vaccinated, despite having trouble with vaccine production for months.

SUCK IT!
Sam Adams
Member
Thu Aug 12 13:47:54
Your welcome europe.
Habebe
Member
Thu Aug 12 14:53:06
Nimatzo, Is that entire population or adult population?
Sam Adams
Member
Thu Aug 12 15:59:59
The US and EU reached 50% of entire population at approximately the same time. EU may have been a couple days ahead but it was close.

Everyone that wanted a vax in the US had access a few months ahead of the EU though, since the vaxes were ours.
Cloud Strife
Member
Mon Sep 06 13:37:36
EU really soaring ahead on these vax rates.
Habebe
Member
Mon Sep 06 13:50:47
Isnt the EU still in a recession?
Cloud Strife
Member
Tue Sep 07 06:17:33
No, it grew last quarter.

I think the EU economy is a bit better than the US, because it has a better fiscal and employment situation, with less covid related risk. However, they're both facing inflation, and low growth. The US has more inflated asset valuations suggesting that there is more potential for inflation there, but the market thinks the US is a bit more resilient than the EU, economically.
Habebe
Member
Tue Sep 07 08:00:59
Both have dicey recoveries, but Id think the EU has a longer road.

The US unemployment right now is really good, more jobs than workers is raising wages.

Ive heard stagflation warnings get thrown around for both economies..
But who knows.
jergul
large member
Tue Sep 07 08:08:14
Just keep on adding those trillions to the federal deficit. I am sure it will end well.
jergul
large member
Tue Sep 07 08:08:59
http://dat...-finance-guide/deficit/trends/
Dukhat
Member
Tue Sep 07 08:37:01
Stagflation existed because wages were way more sticky back in the 70's and 80's with unions baking in automatic wage-increases tied to the price level.

Now that Republicans have basically destroyed unions, wages go up and down as needed.

The cause of inflation is mostly supply-chain disruption which is caused by both Covid and Climate Change (Taiwan not getting rain for over half a year drastically cut the chip supply).

The thing is, when prices go up, they almost never ever go down so we're seeing significant price increases this year while wages don't rise much even if inflation ends sometime in 2022 or 2023. Not a good situation or feeling to be in for someone dependent solely on wages.
Sam Adams
Member
Tue Sep 07 10:22:39
"The cause of inflation is mostly supply-chain disruption which is caused by both Covid and Climate Change"

Climate change? Ahahahahaha

Dunce.
Cloud Strife
Member
Tue Sep 07 10:34:48
The supply chain disruption is pretty important, underlying the fragile interconnected global economy, as well as the west's inability to create and distribute it's own goods.

However, the underlying cause of inflation is more the result of decades of monetary and fiscal policy designed to spur growth. The slack in the system (monetary easing and fiscal spending) that is generally used to improve conditions has just been burnt frivolously, and now there's nothing left but inflation to keep the wheels turning.
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Tue Sep 07 10:41:30
The price for shipping containers have quadrupled since last year! Unheard of in recent memory. It was always a side effect of trade imbalance, that containers end up in the wrong part of the world, it just got way worse during covid.
Cloud Strife
Member
Tue Sep 07 10:58:24
It's an interesting loop that the containers take. The Chinese send us proverbial trash from their factories, and we send them back literal trash to be recycled.
murder
Member
Tue Sep 07 11:33:06

"Just keep on adding those trillions to the federal deficit. I am sure it will end well."

If it ends badly for us, it will end badly for everyone so ...

Cloud Strife
Member
Tue Sep 07 11:41:24
It will end well for China. They're already set to be the worlds largest economy in less than a decade. The sooner the better for them.
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Tue Sep 07 11:41:25
Buy ETH and salt. You will be fine regardless what happens. If we upgrade to the 2.0 version of finance, the ETH will make you rich. Should we revert back to beta version as civilization collapses, that salt will be more valuable than gold.

Of course, stock up on booze and weed either way.
Cloud Strife
Member
Tue Sep 07 13:27:59
I do enjoy imagining a world where somehow that makes sense. Some sort of weird post apocalyptic cyber punk hellhole? Do you need to siphon gas from an old tractor to run a generator to charge your cell phone? Are the cell companies now war lords that demand payment in salt?

And how the hell is imaginary money that needs the internet and the power output of Austria going to help in a world with a collapsed civilization? Is it like Elysium? Have the neckbeards rode Elon's cock all the way to Mars, and maintain a link up in the rare case that someone can buy a ticket off of our once prosperous rock?
jergul
large member
Tue Sep 07 15:28:02
Murder
I am not so sure about that. Depends how well economies are positioned to pivot to China being the importer of choice :D
Habebe
Member
Tue Sep 07 19:44:39
"It will end well for China. They're already set to be the worlds largest economy in less than a decade. The sooner the better for them."

Probably not going to happen, kind of like how Japan was going to do it in the 80s.

Chinas fundamentals just arent there in the near future, already on the way down.
jergul
large member
Tue Sep 07 23:48:49
Is definately going to happen. I can give you three trillion reasons why.
Habebe
Member
Wed Sep 08 00:19:43
http://www...l-Track-Overtake/dp/0395633168
jergul
large member
Wed Sep 08 00:39:49
OMG, somebody wrote a book in 1995. Your point? Because my point is US government spending is keeping your economy artificially afloat and that rate of debt accumulation is unsustainable.
Habebe
Member
Wed Sep 08 00:59:34
And I'm saying I dont think China has the ability to become the largest economy anytime (sustained) in the next 20-30 years barring some major event lile 6 billion people droping dead at once.

Chimas growth had been dwindling for years, growing very old, very fast, and Xi is just exacerbating it and all these "when China has the largest economy" will sound a lot like "When Japan has the largest economy"

They both have many of the dame flaws and disregard demographics.
jergul
large member
Wed Sep 08 01:27:38
Habebe
China already has the largest economy using activity as a measure (PPP). You are pinning an awful lot of hope on the USD remaining strong (the only reason the US economy is larger in nominal terms).

Disregard demographics? Like there is 1.3 billion of them and only 335 million of you? That the demographic factor we are disregarding?
jergul
large member
Wed Sep 08 01:33:37
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)
Habebe
Member
Wed Sep 08 01:41:15
Whatever makes you feel better.

You know exactly what I'm talking about, the dependancy ratio.
Cloud Strife
Member
Wed Sep 08 03:15:10
China has problems. Everyone has problems. China's problems are hugely overblown. Aging populations are literally a hallmark of advanced economies...
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Wed Sep 08 04:02:14
It isn't just an aging population, the one child policy together with the habit of selectively aborting the females is actually a very undesirable position to be on demographically, you want the opposite for a quick bounce. They have unwittingly created a bottle neck. The recent changes in policy, if not mostly offset by the drop in fertility as life standard goes up, will take 20 years to bear fruits and be hampered by the above mentioned gender ratios.

They can really only effectively automate themselves out of this hole, which they are, but then again, everyone can do that and everyone is.

This uncritical acceptance of everything China says *shakes head*, comparing that with the high transparancy governance (in comparison) we live in to China. You people are in for some rude awakening :)

China has a massive population to maintain, as it and the world is increasingly moving towards automation. What you view as an advantage is turning into a liability. Which China is currently handling by employing A LOT of people, both in the military and state companies, building ghost cities.

You can view this as the physical instantiation of what the US FED is doing, printing money. China is printing stuff that no one needs (not even the Chinese), because otherwise 10's of millions of people would go unemployed. All of this drives up productions cost of course.

All of this concludes in, Chinese companies use twice the amount of capital and 5 times the labor to produce the same amount of value as an American company, on average. Very impressive and more importantly very sustainable.
Habebe
Member
Wed Sep 08 04:18:46
"They can really only effectively automate themselves out of this hole, which they are, but then again, everyone can do that and everyone is."_

Yup, China's economic clout is based on cheap labor in abundance.If its automated, why buy it from china nd pay shipping?

------

Nimatzo is right that an aging population is oversimplified.

Basically dependancy ratios are how many workers are supporting how many non workers (kids/elderly etc.)

If one worker has to pay more to cover pensions and braces means they have less money for themselves and have to work harder.

the demographic shift in China that's coming when their baby boomers retire and they are dependant on their little emperors is fucking steep.

Japan is the best example, look at their dependancy ratios over the last 50 years and compare it to economic output and growth and then look where China is headed.

And the one child policy and female preference just throws salt in that wound.

Even now, they upped it to a 3 child policy, the problems though are

1.So far its not really increasing fertility rates and will be a tough sell.

2.With a shrunken female population , it takes a greater toll on the dependancy ratios if these working age females start leaving work to raise kids.

Not to mention China is already heavily indebted prior to having to pay for more non workers.
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Wed Sep 08 06:01:41
Indeed, this demographic problem will have casquading effects. At the same time that the working population is aging and collapsing the goal is to produce more children, you need women for that. Well, who is going to take care of all the old AND the offspring of this desired explosion in fertility? Women, the group that there already isn't enough of.

China should start cloning women.
jergul
large member
Wed Sep 08 06:01:49
habebe
Are you talking about your 47 trillion in unfunded pension liabilities?

http://www...-cant-fulfill/?sh=3000caf265b1

Note the year. 2017. You know, before this current 3 trillion dollar deficit.
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Wed Sep 08 06:05:21
Cloudstrife
"I do enjoy imagining a world where somehow that makes sense."

It makes more sense if you view it as the two different scenarios I described and not one and the same.
jergul
large member
Wed Sep 08 06:15:21
Fact of the matter is that the US economy is bloated and would, in an equal world, be something between 50% and 67% of the size it is now (nomative value).

The question you need to ask yourself is if this global imbalance is likely to persist at its current strength forever?

And Jesus, the are 40 million more men than women in China. Of a population of 1.4 trillion. So 730 million women to 770 million men.

Just out of interest.

http://ourworldindata.org/gender-ratio

Habebe
Member
Wed Sep 08 06:32:40
Jergul, US debt isnt as big of a deal since were not set for a seismic demographics shift like China is.

Also, your judging the M/F ratios wrong.

How many women would be there naturally?

How many women are of suitable baby making age?
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Wed Sep 08 06:40:39
They need not be much more dramatic than that. Just like we didn't need a very deadly virus to create huge problems for us globally and wreck havoc.

Things don't need to be extreme and eye catching, statistically, to be structural problems. Especially when they are at the root of some larger structure, gender ratios sit at the base of population demographics. If you suddenly want to change that by heavenly mandate, you need women.
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Wed Sep 08 06:50:52
habebe
"How many women are of suitable baby making age?"

Those figure are far worse than the total figures, since that is the 1 child policy generation the people who are suppose to have children now.

The other side of this, is of course that you have 40 million men with low prospects for finding a mate. That it self is a liability and threat against stability. How many disgruntled men does it take to revolt?
Cloud Strife
Member
Wed Sep 08 07:04:03
You guys really harping on these demographic "problems". It's always like this with ya'll, because you're emotional. You want to argue to the premise that China is failing. Nim is arguing that there will be some sort of incel revolt?

The demographic issue is not significantly worse than in Europe, or Japan, or the US for that matter. Demographics are also easy to adjust by immigration policies. It is like this for all of the issues, except for structural governance issues, but Chinese governance decisions almost always make sense when viewed through a long term lens. It is possible that Xi or a successor go full retard and burn everything to the ground, but they have historically been fairly popular leaders who have developed policy that largely benefit the working class, in opposition to the leadership in certain nations who only service the wealthy.
murder
Member
Wed Sep 08 07:14:50

"Demographics are also easy to adjust by immigration policies."

Every nation isn't as welcoming of immigrants as the US.
Cloud Strife
Member
Wed Sep 08 07:18:14
Nonsense. I've met few people who would rather be poor than have a few foreigners around.
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Wed Sep 08 07:48:39
You are unusually stupid CS. Countries have challenges, we share some of them universally, while others are the results of the culture or prevailing ideology and bad policy. That is the topic, but you are obviously here as a China apologist, hence why you are looking.

"Nim is arguing that there will be some sort of incel revolt?"

It is certainly a threat, but I didn't discover it, it is a studied topic. When enough men can't find mates, be it because for stratified socioeconomic reasons or in this case the reality of there not being enough women. It leads to instability.

Maybe this isn't apparent to you, but having a partner is one of the most important basic desires in the life of most people next to. Once you got the food, water and shelter covered, well now I want a wife/husband. Sits at the root of happiness. And it isn't like young single men have been the foot soldiers of every revolt and revolution, right?
Cloud Strife
Member
Wed Sep 08 08:01:21
Your argument is that most soldiers are unmarried? Is this even true? Does it not have more to do with the fact that soldiers are generally younger than married age? Then there is the fact that unmarried men have far more reason to go to war (or far less ability to avoid it) than married men. To think that unmarried men cause war is just... so fucking stupid. It's like saying poverty causes skin pigmentation.

`You are unusually stupid CS.'

Oh hush. We've all seen the investment decisions of you and your mentor.
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Wed Sep 08 08:20:56
Wow. I suggest you go do some googling and figure out what I said. It is a studied phenomena, to take anything you said seriously, is taking seriously the opinions on a book, by someone who has neither read the book nor can even read.


"investment decisions"

They have been paning out amazingly, thank you for asking. But if you have any advice I am all ears, I do not discriminate. Put up or shut up, Nhill did, in black and white for everyone to see. It's not like he is right 100% of the time, but he puts it out there. Talk is cheap as they say, vague insult are even cheaper.


jergul
large member
Wed Sep 08 08:30:34
Women of childbearing age had tremendous mortality throughout most of human existence. Scewed gender ratios is the norm, not the exception.

Factually, most everyone would lose their partner and absolutely anyone that survived to maturity would lose multiples of children.

Never mind stratification, slavery, or indentured servitude that ensured that many would never have a partner at all.

So, your argument has to relate to specific vulnerabilities in post modern societies that simply are not robust enough to deal with something as trivial as gender imbalances (that could easily be resolved by men having 2.1 years break between partners and women having 1.9 years break between partners).

Also, a huge portion of any modern society is single people living in single person households.

Should we put those threats to our future in special camps`?

Lol, I think CS is on to something. Exactly how sound are your investment decisions if you are investing into a toppling pyramid scheme?

Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Wed Sep 08 10:00:19
"Women of childbearing age had tremendous mortality throughout most of human existence. Scewed gender ratios is the norm, not the exception."

Difficult to assess without actual figures, but not very relevant for the here and now nor for what I said. A population bounces back quicker from a sex ratio skewed in favor of women and slower from women. Which is relevant for the Chinese situation, that the Chinese are trying to get out of. I am sure history is full of both examples.

"your argument has to relate to specific vulnerabilities in post modern societies"

I mean we are talking about the threats and challenges of modern China. That is why stone demographics and social organization isn't very useful.

I am sure we can imagine many solution to this, but they also have to be practical, acceptable culturally and socially. I'm don't think China is doomed, anymore than I think they will take over the world.

"Should we put those threats to our future in special camps`?"

It is an interesting way too look at people who just want to get married and have a normal life, but are left with shitty incentives because of bad policy and shitty systems. Ultimately not one I subscribe to.

"Exactly how sound are your investment decisions if you are investing into a toppling pyramid scheme?"

heh ok :)
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