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Utopia Talk / Politics / Crypto - more manipulation
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Tue Sep 14 04:14:35
Yesterday we saw the LTC walmart fake news rally the market, to then crash back down again as it was retracted and corrected. Some people made a lot of money on this.

Nhill
I saw something on coinalyze after this stuff happened. Open interest started to collapse massively when BTC was going up. Was that an indication that there was potential trouble?
nhill
Member
Tue Sep 14 05:09:49
Open interest is the amount of money currently invested in futures contracts.

Due to the spike in price, open interest dropped quickly because people got liquidated (which closes their open interest automatically).

You can see this in the fact that open interest dropped on the way down, also.

But, to answer your question in another way, the open interest not increasing on the way up was a *clue* that the rally wasn't organic and driven more by liquidations than natural price appreciation.

Open interest is always a component of the big picture and not to be relied upon solely.

If open interest is trending up AND volume is trending up, then you have evidence of a strong market (either bear or bull).

If open interest and volume disagree, that means the market isn't necessarily strong yet, and is being driven by inorganic factors (but those can turn organic and become a self-fulfilling prophecy at times).

It's one of those metrics that's extremely useful in a narrow set of circumstances. I *always* check it, because when it's significant, it's *very* significant.

As for the Litecoin news, that appeared to be a fake press release designed to pump and dump the price.

That's a difficult thing to combat without regulations.

It'd be possible to analyze on-chain and on-exchange activity to find the perpetrators, and, if they are on-chain and anonymous, blacklisting their addresses.

But we're not there yet. Gary Gensler is going to argue in front of the senate today that the SEC needs to provide investor protections:
http://www...sler%20Testimony%209-14-21.pdf

Here's his speech which gets pre-printed. I'm curious to see how the market reacts. I assume most of it is being priced in already (and perhaps responsible for the mini rally we are experiencing on low time frames).

Overall, I find it to be a very positive development. He's providing evidence that the SEC takes cryptocurrency seriously and isn't trying to get rid of the market, but, rather, provide the investor protections we all know are needed for the next evolution.

Now, on a longer time-frame, 10-30 years, where I expect users to be able to transact solely within the crypto ecosystem, the press release pump and dump becomes more difficult to combat. So there'll be tradeoffs between anonymity and investor protection that will have to be addressed.

Although, for the day-to-day user, it shouldn't matter as much. The price resumed the same trend after the pump and dump, and it was only the investors/speculators that got burned (or profited).
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Tue Sep 14 06:28:44
"You can see this in the fact that open interest dropped on the way down, also"

Yes, I thought it looked off so to speak, I had some memory from when you explained this dynamic the first time.

"Open interest is always a component of the big picture and not to be relied upon solely."

In theory I understand this, but when trying to apply new things in practice, it is not uncommon to take whatever new thing I have learned, and blindly look at that as that is everything you need. As conscious as I am about this flaw, I really appreciate that you keep hammering on this.

"Although, for the day-to-day user, it shouldn't matter as much."

"if they are on-chain and anonymous, blacklisting their addresses."

Right, a few days ago I was actually thinking exactly along these lines and that the CEXs could self regulate some of this and blacklist. The structure probably isn't there, but it shouldn't be that difficult provided the will is there. What am I missing?
Habebe
Member
Tue Sep 14 08:43:21
Intervention! Intervention!

Gonna snap his ass up in a bear trap, mabey just a net.
Habebe
Member
Tue Sep 14 08:44:04
Oops, wrong thread.
nhill
Member
Tue Sep 14 12:56:30
> Right, a few days ago I was actually thinking exactly along these lines and that the CEXs could self regulate some of this and blacklist. The structure probably isn't there, but it shouldn't be that difficult provided the will is there. What am I missing?

They could definitely do this, but I'm not convinced they want to without being forced, as disallowing it would them a competitive advantage. I'm sure they rake in the fees from these whales, so they want to keep them. It'd be nice if they all banded together and made a uniform policy, but I don't see that happening soon.

Also, I've long suspected the exchanges themselves manipulate the price at times to stimulate more volume. Their business isn't really dependent on crypto price appreciating, it's dependent on the volume of trades.

You can see in the charts that there was very little volume once Bitcoin got above 50K. Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday were quite low.

Then the manipulated crash/liquidations happened on Thursday and it stimulated the highest volume in weeks.

The only real winner is the broker in trading...everything else is a negative sum game.
nhill
Member
Tue Sep 14 13:04:30
Fantom is interesting right now. The worst performing coin in the top 100.

I'm not worried about it, as the same fundamentals that interested me in the platform are all there (tech tech, e.g. EVM compatible, inexpensive, fast).

It might be a shakeout by large institutional investors suppressing the price so they can accumulate.

That can happen if a little known coin like Fantom explodes out of nowhere and takes the big boys by surprise. They'll keep the price down (short selling) and accumulate at the same time from the panic sellers.

My gut tells me this is a gut check for holders. The worst performing coin in the top 100 coins, will you still hold?

I'm in, but hopefully I don't go down with the ship ;)

It's almost impossible for me to lose at this point because my Fantom bags have grown so much. Even with this pullback I'm up ~8x on my initial investment in the ecosystem. It'd have to dip below $0.30 for me to feel any pain, so I'm sitting comfortable now at -7.4% from initial entry ;)
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Tue Sep 14 13:31:05
"but I'm not convinced they want to without being forced"

lol and every one of them keep saying "we welcome regulation", they they whisper in the hallways, "but we will keep milking it until you do!".

"Gary Gensler"

I read the speech. I think it starts from the right place, consumer protection. That sets a constructive tone. I am optimistic.

Solfarm has bugged out due to resource exhaustion and alt coins have been eating dick last few days. Preparing for a harsh winter!
nhill
Member
Tue Sep 14 13:40:11
They welcome regulation because none of them wants their competitors to have an advantage that they can't also have. ;)

http://i.imgur.com/YMi7bha.png

This is my thoughts on $FTM right now from a technical analysis perspective. But as I said a few days ago, if Bitcoin and Ethereum keep dumping, $0.90-$1.00 seems to be a more likely entry target.

Meanwhile, $CRV and $AAVE are having a nice day, along with my $OHM and $TIME.

I'm hemorrhaging money on $FTM, but a few other things are making up for it... this is why when I posted my ideal crypto portfolio it consisted of 16 projects. You never know when one gets hacked or manipulated, but, unless we are in a true bear market, something is going to offset it.

I still think this is mainly a cleaning of the order books. Getting people off leverage, resetting some key overbought indicators, and then it'll resume an upwards trend.

If it was the start of a bear market again, we wouldn't see alt coins like $CRV at +12% today.
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Tue Sep 14 13:43:30
"My gut tells me this is a gut check for holders. The worst performing coin in the top 100 coins, will you still hold?"

To the moon or bust for me. I am getting close to where I will start going red, 1.04, but I am not moving, I will happily collect that APY for the long game.
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Tue Sep 14 16:03:46
"http://i.imgur.com/YMi7bha.png"
"if Bitcoin and Ethereum keep dumping"

If the prophecy does not hold, then I shall use the remaining stable coin reserve if it breaks under 1 dollar.

If we go back to 0,4. I am betting it all, everything I own that isn't nailed down to the floor including wife and children allt of it!

My only regret is not understanding these things about FTM and SOL and DeFi earlier. It takes time being completely noob and also getting caught up in the trading addiction slowed me down. However in over 20 years of coming here, this summer was by far the most intensely fun I have had posting on UP. Good times.
nhill
Member
Tue Sep 14 16:46:17
As for Solana, I'm planning on buying some leveraged futures short, probably 5x leveraged once I see evidence of mainnet coming back online...will take profits to offset my losses from it being offline and then buy the dip.

But yeah, Fantom at $0.90 would be a gift, $0.40 would be a miracle. I'd definitely move around some reserves if it got that low :)
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Tue Sep 14 17:15:29
Yea it's been a rough day for my two favorit projects :/
nhill
Member
Tue Sep 14 22:35:05
http://imgur.com/a/KzOSEWC

Looks like FTM is ready to take off.

Solana, on the other hand, is experiencing issues...they deployed a fix but it had a separate bug that caused validators to crash.

Now they have a second fix but most of the people from Europe are already asleep so they can't bring up their validators. It's been a shitshow so far, but I understand...it's stressful pushing out a hotfix afterhours when billions of dollars worth of value are at stake...

Wouldn't be surprised to see this dump hard though. I already exited most of it around the same time as FTM, so I'm ready for a dump.
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Wed Sep 15 02:11:41
It just went back online.
nhill
Member
Wed Sep 15 03:49:45
Yeah, thankfully it didn't dump! I made 44% shorting it before it came back online...that's one of the very few times I've done leverage, just because I knew first hand the problems (I was on the discord with the validators and seeing the problems first hand).

But...$FTM :) Look at that rally. +25% from the entry point in my chart.

That's what I love about this coin...it's not a small cap but it's super volatile. Can generate a LOT of alpha on it.
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Wed Sep 15 03:59:42
Seems to be holding, but I am still reading on twitter that not everything is working everywhere, so not ready to celebrate.

It wasn't that long ago that an entire Swedish grocery chain's entire payment system went down in the so called "Revil-attack". The entire chain stood still. They finally got running so you could pay in cash. Consequently an amount of cash is now a staple item of our household prepping kit.
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Wed Sep 15 04:29:24
Grats on that short :) I understand your reasoning for leveraging, it was basically risk free! Because even if as now it didn't dump, there was practically 0 chance for a major rally after this "scandal". Yea, I need to start using short positions, can't hedge my exposure effectively without it.
---

Lots of hype that "this is the accumulation period of a life time" for crypto. Expectations to go parabolic and that this will likely never happen again. A lot of this and it is all happening this year of course! BTC 200K! ETH 10k!

How is this going to happen with the looming stagflation? Or is happening because of stagflation? People dump their money on to the chains?

This I feel is what I am missing, the sources I have so far who are reporting/analyzing crypto, put practically zero effort into connecting it to the rest of the world economy. They are living in a crypto bubble and I have been living there too for the last 5 months. Which is fine, those people will report stuff that others will not see, but I need balance.

So, besides yourself :) what crypto friendly voices are there that are analyzing crypto holistically and not just gazing inwards?

This is my weakness, I am still relatively starved on good sources and as valuable as you have been, I also know I can't count on you answering every question I have, or really that we will remain in contact for ever. I am trying to not become a pain in the ass for you :)
nhill
Member
Wed Sep 15 13:48:11
> Seems to be holding, but I am still reading on twitter that not everything is working everywhere, so not ready to celebrate.

Seems to be working good now. I'm still bullish on Solana long term.

> Grats on that short :) I understand your reasoning for leveraging, it was basically risk free! Because even if as now it didn't dump, there was practically 0 chance for a major rally after this "scandal". Yea, I need to start using short positions, can't hedge my exposure effectively without it.

Yes, you got it. I knew there was going to be delays that would 99% of the time cause weak hands to sell, so I took the opportunity. Made back the money from the drawdown as planned. I am surprised it didn't dump harder once the network spun back up, though. SBF cult strong.

> Lots of hype that "this is the accumulation period of a life time" for crypto. Expectations to go parabolic and that this will likely never happen again. A lot of this and it is all happening this year of course! BTC 200K! ETH 10k!

Price on cryptocurrency is speculative. It has a tenuous connection to other risk assets. I don't listen to anyone who says BTC 200K or ETH 10K... it's pointless. One piece of news or regulation could invalidate any long term thesis or technical analysis.

My advice to you-- in regards to price-- is focus on 1-3 days max. Long term price trends are merely a derivative of short time frames. So if you can get the short time frames right, the long term stuff only matters to pontificators and shillers.

> This I feel is what I am missing, the sources I have so far who are reporting/analyzing crypto, put practically zero effort into connecting it to the rest of the world economy. They are living in a crypto bubble and I have been living there too for the last 5 months. Which is fine, those people will report stuff that others will not see, but I need balance.

It's best to view cryptocurrency as a risky commodity in the macro space. It has the same volatility characteristics. Remember lumber went +460% from May of last year to May of this year. It has since dropped -67%.

If you research trading commodities, a lot applies to crypto. The +460% move in lumber was partially from demand, but mostly from speculation. Crypto is the same way.

As for the best voices in crypto, you have to look outside of the crypto community. My favorite is Keith McCullough from Hedgeye.

He sells the Bitcoin Trend Tracker if you want the numbers behind it: http://acc.../bitcoin_trend_tracker/616!617
nhill
Member
Wed Sep 15 13:48:16
But if you want the knowledge and narrative, the Hedgeye Macro Show is something you should be watching every day. It's a very valuable resource:

https://accounts.hedgeye.com/products/macro-show/128!372
nhill
Member
Wed Sep 15 13:48:34
http://accounts.hedgeye.com/products/macro-show/128!372

linked
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Wed Sep 15 14:00:07
"I am surprised it didn't dump harder once the network spun back up, though."

+1 I was preparing for the worst, but in hindsight I think people have learned that, this petty stuff will happen at least once to every protocol and by now it has happened so many times in this space. Besides what site has not been DDoS attacked?

Taking notes on everything else you wrote. I will be checking that out right away.

May the ledger confirm all your transactions without delay.
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Wed Sep 15 14:05:49
Perfect 1st month free on hedge eye :)

Signed up!
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Wed Sep 15 16:02:01
Solid stuff. Is that trend tracker useful =)

I have doubled my reaper farm, so I am good on the FTM front. Sold the remaining FTM on binance and bought AVAX ($56) and LUNA ($36).

nhill
Member
Wed Sep 15 16:51:42
> Is that trend tracker useful =)

Very useful. Buying at the low end of the range and selling at the high end of the range is a high probability move. It's not perfect, but it's a good sanity check. I very rarely make moves in the middle of the range unless it's a short term pullback and trend continuation move.

> I have doubled my reaper farm, so I am good on the FTM front. Sold the remaining FTM on binance and bought AVAX ($56) and LUNA ($36).

Nice! Glad that farm worked out for you. As I said, it was the 2nd biggest opportunity in crypto, in my eyes. Still a lot of upside with $TOMB from here. Very bullish on the project at these prices.

> +1 I was preparing for the worst, but in hindsight I think people have learned that, this petty stuff will happen at least once to every protocol and by now it has happened so many times in this space. Besides what site has not been DDoS attacked?

I was pleasantly surprised. I'm too old a cat to call a kitten...so I had a playbook in mind. But when it didn't sell off too hard (only -3% after opening up), it's a sign of the maturation of DeFi space.

Very bullish sign. People aren't losing confidence easily anymore. I know have to reflect this behavior in my mental models of volatility. I'm always going to lean conservative, but yesterday told me a *little* more risk than I usually take is a good strategic move (as my previous mental risk model was invalidated).

One thing you have to do in this space is adapt. Constantly. The biggest losers are people that stick to their same thesis for years, despite evidence to the country (e.g. the people that bought Ripple for $3 and still hold it at a loss thinking it will return to value).

A beginner's mindset will bring you a long way and give you a big advantage. I see this attitude in you, so I'm optimistic about your future success should you be able to maintain your mindset. ;)
nhill
Member
Wed Sep 15 19:55:54
Closing FTM trade @ 1.44, +10.7%
nhill
Member
Wed Sep 15 19:56:27
(note that is a trade signal ... for a trade ... I'm still farming FTM)
nhill
Member
Wed Sep 15 21:25:04
Buying 1.39 (FTM)
nhill
Member
Wed Sep 15 23:45:35
Ah what a beautiful trade if I don't say so myself. FTM is an alpha machine.

Selling 1.44. +3.5%
nhill
Member
Wed Sep 15 23:59:49
Buying FTM @ 1.41 .... let's do this again?
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Thu Sep 16 03:13:32
Thank you for the encouraging words Nhill :)

My own education and the developments we have witnessed in the crypto space these past months have increased my confidence that it is here to stay.

FTM has become a fun coin to trade now that the volumes allow for it :) heh I was actually thinking about this yesterday. I know I said I am done trading, but probably that isn’t 100% true ;)
nhill
Member
Thu Sep 16 09:43:02
Buy more 1.33!
nhill
Member
Thu Sep 16 12:38:13
No problem!

I agree it's here to stay. It'll be a bumpy road like all new paradigms, but they can't kill an idea.

Plus, it's pretty clear from the SEC that they have no intent on taking it away, they simply want more investor protections.

FTM is a lot of fun. People trade it quite aggressively, so you can make good returns on it if you time it right.

Of course, I have a forever bag farming and accumulating, but trading keeps you sharp and is fun. ;)
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Thu Sep 16 12:41:06
Well gosh darn it. I'm in 1.34!

Sold AVAX @ 62 +10%

I guess I am trading again.

nhill
Member
Thu Sep 16 13:08:32
AVAX is a nice one! Right now I have all my AVAX crypto in Wonderland: http://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/wonderland

It's a fork of my favorite Ethereum project, Olympus DAO, that profit shares 33% back to Olympus.

Which is great :D Buying $TIME on Wonderland (and staking it into $MEMOries helps profit share my $OHM bags.

Wonderland going up 29.4% in the past 24 hours doesn't help... not to mention it has 26,356.5% APY currently (the protocol operates on profit sharing, so the yield is real yield, it's not a yield farm).

That said, right now the premium of Wonderland is $1,953, which is quite expensive for a token backed by $1 worth of crypto (that's how it works-- each token is backed by 1 stablecoin). However, if the yield stays high, even if it drops to $1 you still profit. But the yield is dependent on the bond mechanism and treasury growth.

It's more like a dividend sharing company than a traditional crypto project. Love unique little gems like this.
nhill
Member
Thu Sep 16 13:09:02
"Wonderland going up 29.4% in the past 24 hours doesn't help"

Doesn't hurt, I mean XD
nhill
Member
Thu Sep 16 13:12:25
I bought my $TIME for under $600, so it has gone up around 200% so far. Probably a bit overvalued at this price, but I'm not taking profits. Playing the game theory angle and maintaining a stake, as that guarantees I get a % of the market cap as the currency "inflates".

http://docs.olympusdao.finance/ explains it better :)
nhill
Member
Thu Sep 16 13:15:21
Despite feeling like $1,953 is an expensive premium, it may not be a bad price. The market cap is still under 100 million and the project is only a couple weeks old. Hard to tell where it'll end up.
nhill
Member
Fri Sep 17 03:32:05
Selling 1.38, +1.5%

Little pump here but gonna be cautious.
nhill
Member
Fri Sep 17 03:57:33
Buying 1.35. Doesn't seem like a high volume sell reaction.
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Fri Sep 17 04:40:58
I need to quit my day job at the Institute of missing the fuck out, looks like I missed a sell opportunity. Good call.

Macro show is another threshhold, I am bombarded with new jargon and terminology. Good stuff, especially their break down of quads.

Reading the stuff they have on quads made me realize I need to move our money to another bank. Our current bank just does not have all the stuff I need, like rare earth and utilities, a bunch of stuff is missing. I did some moving before the summer, but as I am going deeper I realize I am lacking the full range of opportunities.
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Fri Sep 17 08:34:35
Rough day. People are more nervous for the weekends now it seems and there are more sell offs. I want to say this is a recent change after that liquidation dump. Or I am seeing pattern that isn't there.

AVAX holding good, shouldn't have put that overnight sell order :P


nhill
Member
Fri Sep 17 09:20:21
Buying 1.27
nhill
Member
Fri Sep 17 09:39:08
> looks like I missed a sell opportunity.

There will probably be another one soon.

> Macro show is another threshhold, I am bombarded with new jargon and terminology. Good stuff, especially their break down of quads.

Yeah it takes a while to get used to the jargon. There's a user guide on the site that covers some of it!

> Reading the stuff they have on quads made me realize I need to move our money to another bank. Our current bank just does not have all the stuff I need, like rare earth and utilities, a bunch of stuff is missing. I did some moving before the summer, but as I am going deeper I realize I am lacking the full range of opportunities.

We're spoiled here in the US in that regards. The brokers here are pretty robust. I use Schwab because it has a lot of OTC stocks. Hedgeye covers some obscure OTC stocks from time to time that most exchange brokers miss out.

> Rough day. People are more nervous for the weekends now it seems and there are more sell offs. I want to say this is a recent change after that liquidation dump. Or I am seeing pattern that isn't there.

Yep, in general people are going to be cautious going into the weekend. I beefed up my stablecoin reserves. The volume is already pretty low, so we're ripe for another set of liquidations.

> AVAX holding good, shouldn't have put that overnight sell order :P

It was down for a while but staged a nice rebound. The alternative L1 chains continue to be the hottest space in crypto. I bridged into one that hasn't pumped yet ($TT) to a) experiment with the platform and b) see if I can catch a lagging pump.
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Fri Sep 17 13:03:44
There is an pretty big Swedish online bank that has it all basically, called Avanza. I used to have stuff there a long time ago. Still have an account. But that means I have to sell everything... have to pay 30% taxes :,(

Well it was over due that I do this and move away from the traditional account. In Sweden there is another kind of account where you pay a flat rate tax around 0,3%, but on the entire value of the capital, instead of 30% on profits of every sale. You also do not have to declare every sale. Which also mean you can't deduce any losses. In the long run this ends up being quite a nice deal.



nhill
Member
Sat Sep 18 00:01:37
Sold 1.36, +3.7%
nhill
Member
Sat Sep 18 00:05:52
Buying 1.33

Volatility FTW
nhill
Member
Sat Sep 18 00:39:36
That tax doesn't sound too bad. At my income level I pay a lot more than that on my profits in the USA. Our tax levels are high. I pay 37%.
nhill
Member
Sat Sep 18 00:40:58
37% at the max bracket, anyways. Averaged out it's a bit lower.
nhill
Member
Sat Sep 18 00:41:43
http://uto...hread=88567&time=1631540138678

Link to last thread so we don't lose the chain. :)
nhill
Member
Sat Sep 18 00:44:37
"Wed Sep 08 20:38:50
http://solana.com/ecosystem/akash

Here's a good project if you're looking to diversify your $SOL ecosystem bags a bit.

Currently $3.62, my price target is $70."

Looking back at the last couple threads ... sometimes I forget how good my calls are these days. Pullbacks do that to ya.

This is up +40% in a mere 10 days. Some people play the stock market for years hoping to see that type of gain.
nhill
Member
Sat Sep 18 02:19:31
Sell 1.42, +6.7%
nhill
Member
Sat Sep 18 02:45:18
Buying 1.39.

Just riding the vol at this point. :)
nhill
Member
Sat Sep 18 03:23:56
Selling 1.43, +2.8%

This is why FTM can be so much fun ;)
nhill
Member
Sat Sep 18 04:11:35
Buy 1.39 again.
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Sat Sep 18 05:07:40
You have been a busy little bastard, I was sleeping :)

I will hold the FTM a little more then!

So, what have you done with this Akash?
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Sat Sep 18 05:16:05
I hate to validate stupid stereotypes, but BTC ended up being a gateway coin for more volatile stuff :,)

Nimatzo was a nice kid, then he started trading BTC and before you knew it he was buying and selling ETH, Solana and then got into the real volatile stuff like FTM..
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Sat Sep 18 05:22:06
Sold 50% of the FTM @1.4134 +4.6%
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Sat Sep 18 06:18:16
Misbehavior of Markets. You mentioned this book, so does hedge eye, I presume this is of one of The Books in this space. It's on the reading list now. Gonna do the blinkist version today.

This is all so straight forward. If you get 5% better at managing my money, 10%, whatever %, that translate into more money and it compounds on itself both in terms of the money and knowledge... In theory and *if* I stay mindful of risks and do not go full retard and full degen.

Rule no. 1: In order to succeed, you first have to survive.
nhill
Member
Sat Sep 18 13:09:02
For Akash I have it farming yields on Osmosis in the 66% AKT, 33% $ATOM pool.

I should be adding a couple decimals to the FTM price here, considering the ticks are so small.

In general, I’m still growing my bags through being a liquidity provider. The trading itself is just a small allocation.
nhill
Member
Sat Sep 18 13:15:31
> This is all so straight forward. If you get 5% better at managing my money, 10%, whatever %, that translate into more money and it compounds on itself both in terms of the money and knowledge... In theory and *if* I stay mindful of risks and do not go full retard and full degen.

This is what I love about the space. I’m a huge math nerd and love statistics & probability. The markets allow you to take the knowledge and test it. Like a blacksmith at the forge, I can take my knowledge and turn it into cold hard cash.

I think it’s beautiful. If I have 70% confidence in the crypto market going up, I can *directly* express that probability by being 70% long something I’m bullish on, and 30% short something I’m bearish on (e.g. 70% long FTM, 30% short $ADA).

You can take that and overlay it fractally with time frames like back when I was showing how to trade on three time frames at a time. Love this shit.
nhill
Member
Sat Sep 18 18:39:03
Buying 1.328
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Sun Sep 19 09:38:18
Sold FTM 1.43
nhill
Member
Sun Sep 19 13:56:10
Sold 1.455
nhill
Member
Sun Sep 19 13:57:34
+6.9% ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Sun Sep 19 15:06:24
Nice :)

Been doing a lot of reading today jumping between, Misbehavior of the Market, Fooled by randomness and the hedge eye university materials. Got into a side track reading and using William's alligator and William's fractals. Added 3 hours worth of videos of Williams giving lectures on his books to watching list. It turns out that fractals as a concept is fractal in it's application.

All of a sudden I realize I need more screen real estate (24 tabs are open atm) and ordered a 34 inch curved display.
nhill
Member
Sun Sep 19 21:14:41
Haha, nice. Sounds like you're of a good track here. Buying 1.398.
nhill
Member
Sun Sep 19 21:14:59
on* a good track :)
nhill
Member
Sun Sep 19 23:24:34
Buying 1.269
nhill
Member
Mon Sep 20 09:08:40
Wow, that was quite a freefall last night. Good thing I was sleeping ;) Still positioned pretty heavily in stablecoins, though ... might have been a good dip to buy. But I'm still playing cautious ever since my spidey-sense tingled a couple weeks ago.
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Mon Sep 20 11:50:06
Brutal, looks like it is holding for now.
nhill
Member
Tue Sep 21 03:59:36
Looks like ETH bottomed out around $2800. Patient limit order filled. :) Been quite a leverage flush these past couple weeks.

I re-entered the majority of my positions.

Don't think we're out of the woods yet, but looks like we're going to have a risk asset rebound for a little while. May be a dead cat bounce, so I'll be taking profits early.
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Tue Sep 21 05:17:13
Yea I am waiting for a good exit point on the majority of my stuff. I won’t be greedy :)
jergul
large member
Tue Sep 21 07:51:01
Nimi
The trick is to be just a tiny bit less greedy than everyone else :D
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Tue Sep 21 15:51:08
Here we go! Time for cash reserves to be spent!
nhill
Member
Tue Sep 21 17:51:51
This is the pullback I was waiting for on Ethereum. Accumulation through the $2600-$2900 zone.

Of course risky because if that zone breaks we are back into the former range for a while.

But I'm still sticking with my bull market thesis. Healthy pullback triggered by news.
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Tue Sep 21 18:07:54
Scary and exciting, we could fall all the way back to 1700.
nhill
Member
Tue Sep 21 19:13:12
Yup ... this is the inflection point. If we dip and consolidate under ~$2600 then I'll start thinking about selling and reloading with my original long term bags that are at $1750.

I still get the sense that this was a massive deleveraging event that cleans the market of excess liquidity.

If Ethereum can hold above $2,600 and Bitcoin above $39,000, this will be exactly the type of pullback needed to hit new all-time highs in both.

We dropped right about the point where people got stuck holding bags in the crash, so the Evergrande news was the perfect excuse for cautious types to unload without booking a major loss from May. I personally wouldn't have held that long, but I also don't have billions of dollars. At some point the slippage and liquidity prevent you from selling on the way down, as the chances of profiting are pretty slim.

Which is probably why this drop was so precipitous.

These deep-pocketed holders also are very afraid of missing a rally now that the price is within their slippage tolerances.

Gotta think like a while sometimes. I can paint 3-5% candles on small cap coins, but whales can do that on Bitcoin. Really limits your ability to trade when you have deep bags.

At some point, Nim, it'd be an interesting exercise to pick a small cap and try to manipulate the price and see what I mean. Theory is one thing, but playing it out live in the market solidifies how they think.

Be the whale. ;)
nhill
Member
Wed Sep 22 01:57:03
China's central bank injects 120 billion yuan ($18.6 billion) into the banking system after concern over a debt crisis at Evergrande roiled global markets.

http://www...-amid-evergrande-s-debt-crisis

This is the buy signal, IMO. Markets want to be sure China is willing to debase their currency like the USA is ... and this makes crypto look even stronger.

Not financial advice, obviously, but I don't think there's enough FUD left in the tank to reduce the price much further.

FWIW I'm keeping stablecoin reserves for a rally confirmation, but I'm mostly allocated again, around 65% back into the market.

Also, I called this crash pretty well:

"nhill
Member Tue Sep 07 08:56:51
Wow, that was a big drop on ETH. Derisking my DeFi bags into majority stablecoins for now."

ETH price then: $3758

Now: $2916

You get a nose for risk over time. I couldn't point you to any one metric that made me call that, more of a confluence of all I check along with intuition.

I'm not good enough to point out exactly why yet, and I missed the initial part of the July 26th rally, so I'm not perfect on the way up. But nailed the start of both "crashes". Let's see if I entered at the end here (accumulated ETH through $2650-2900 as much as I could, as planned here many weeks back).
nhill
Member
Wed Sep 22 02:00:21
BTW, I do expect at least a retest here. That would be healthy. Setting an alert for $BTC at $40600 (daily open), and if I like the impulse reaction from there... GAME ON!
nhill
Member
Wed Sep 22 02:03:07
The other scenario is uponly. In that case I'll wait for it to break $45K and buy the first consolidation.

Although if it's anything like July, there may not be a chance. Hence why I'm approximately 65% back into my DeFi bags.

(my trading allocation is separate from this discussion... I usually keep my DeFi bags ~90% allocated, as the farming naturally buys every dip)
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Wed Sep 22 03:22:12
Good stuff Nhill, always interesting to read your assessment to validate or question my own. Have not touched my defi for precisely the reason you mention, I am getting new tokens every 2 hours :) they will keep running even if we drop levels. I was late so they have bo accunulated any huge amounts.

So right before this started on sunday, I bought AVAX at 69 and lowered my average price for LUNA to 34. Avax really held up far above expectations and saved my profits a lot. But as some point all the profits made since june were cut by 60% while I have been learning about quads and what not. Still difficult to not have your emotions follow the price action. The good news is that every day that goes by I understand a little bit more. I have been putting pretty much all extra time into understanding the making and breaking of money :) I see many mistakes on my part, there is a level of ignorance where you don’t know you are wrong and the next is you know it was a mistake, but not why and what to learn from it.
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Wed Sep 22 07:15:11
So in hindsight and given as you explained "crypto as a high risk commodity", there are 2 things I have taken away from this as important to keep an eye on. The amount of leverage in crypto, which was really high when the hunt started, it was at May levels (!). The other being the fear of the Chinese contagion. Since I am following Hedge eye I was getting information that this was not a big deal, just a flu ;)

That fear of contagion ultimately set off a panic selling of high risk assets. And this is what I meant when I said I am living in the BTC to the Moon bubble, because and I would like your input here, the Evergrande issue was predictable to have this effect on high risk assets. That was the fear narrative that was being sold everywhere. Presumably even without the leverage liquidation, we would have seen the panic sell off?

Was there any scenario where 300 billion debt "contagion" was not going to significantly effect the price of BTC? And I mean for very practical purpose, selling during the weekend to buy back cheaper kind of predictable. I may be suffering from the benefit of hindsight here!
nhill
Member
Wed Sep 22 07:43:19
The Evergrande situation feels very similar to me to the Elon Musk tweet situation.

Had the Evergrande liquidity crisis dropped in the middle of a week with healthy volume in a healthy uptrend (that has had multiple natural pullbacks) it wouldn't have had this effect. It would have been a bump in the road, for sure, but not a sustained two week selloff.

The reason we got this selloff is the same as why I don't like to see the market go straight up without a pullback giving a solid entry point. That reason being, interest wears out eventually in an up only market. Then both the whales that *did* catch the dip and those from back in May that got stuck with a 52K entry thinking *that* was the dip, both of those major categories are simply looking for a reason to sell.

Pullbacks are healthy in a market because they give it a chance to be injected with new heavy liquidity, instead of the same players continuing to inject their liquidity on the way up (which they can afford because they were accumulating in the 29-30K range) or new players simply nibbling here and there, but waiting for that entry with the bulk of their funds.

This market didn't give us that pullback so ended up exhausting itself.

The technical pattern that demonstrates this behavior is the "Rising Wedge". http://www...es/trading/07/rising_wedge.asp

So, what does EverGrande have to do with this? IMO, not that much. Before the news, from the 2nd-6th you can see a bullish exhaustion playing out. Of course, it's easy to point out in hindsight and a bit harder to spot in practice. Reason being is that most experienced traders knew it was going to happen, but they didn't know when. I know a lot it was going to happen in August, but instead we got mostly chop.

But you and I both commiserated that a pullback had to happen and here we are. :)
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Wed Sep 22 08:55:30
Indeed we did, but I must admit I became blind at some point, I guess it isn't happening *shrug* or that the smaller ones we did have was "it". I did not make sense, but then again I lack the experience. Presumably a look at the leverage would have set my sight straight again.

Another thing I will admit, I kinda let go of whatever strategy I had and started flip flopping, not really paying attention to the bigger picture and time frames I went in to the trades with. Largely due to trying to study too many things all at once! Trading technicals, crypto fundamentals and adding macro to it. It's fine to overwhelm yourself like that, but making bigger and bigger trades based on nothing and everything (information overload), that was a mistake.

Anyway, no disaster all is well in the hood and I am learning.
nhill
Member
Wed Sep 22 13:57:18
It's all good. I was getting complacent and taking on too much risk at the end there too. I predicted the crash but I didn't handle it well...kept staying in the "buy the dip" mindset for too long and getting nickel and dimed outta more than I should have on dead cat bounces.

That's the problem with a 49 day bull run. Starts to feel like it'll last forever!

And, on that note, with most of my DeFi bags already up +25% today, I'm taking profits and moving back to stablecoins.

Today was a 6 figure day for me, no need to be greedy.

Knowing those dirty bear whales, it might all be a trap. I don't normally derisk my DeFi bags so quickly, but +25% is too much profit to leave on the table.
nhill
Member
Wed Sep 22 16:33:12
BTW, I don't think it's a trap. Like I said last night I believe the China influx of funds into their monetary system was the buy signal.

Ever since that announcement everything has been green on my signals. Price, volume, and volatility all look very bullish.

I think we might retest a bit under $3000 (as low as $2900) before a continuation. But I'm fine either way. I'm back to in the green from before the crash and we're not even halfway back up the retrace. I'll consider that a win!
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Wed Sep 22 17:31:55
"BTW, I don't think it's a trap."

You ain't made no money until you hit that sell button. I aspire to reach your level of paranoia ;)

I sold my AVAX for 71 +2,9%
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Thu Sep 23 04:01:40
Of course AVAX has gone crazy since then. Doesn’t matter, it was the first one to go green and I had decided that I need more SCs in reserve. Gotta stick with the plan and not FOMO.
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Thu Sep 23 04:14:39
Nhill

About Luna, it is unique in the sense that it is the only protocol with a user count that is an actual fundamental of the business *right now*. Millions of people are using their payment system to pay in fiat and settle in seconds with lower fees. Who doesn't want that?

I am getting totally different vibes from their DeFi, much more user oriented. This is why I raised my exposure. I think as a business venture it covers important bases where others have left this out, on purpose even. Arguably I have a limited bag of things I have come across, but I also have not heard of anything like it. They are not in Beta in the same obvious way everything else is, their platform is retail to some degree with the CHAI payment system. If their payment system keeps growing, it is a foot in the door, a trojan horse for supplanting more of the old system.
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Thu Sep 23 04:24:49
One thing to mention about their DeFi, so far I have yet to find any kind of LP farming with crazy APY's. They do have dex for trading mirror stocks, but all of this consolidates around being a user oriented retail ready system. There are no huge amounts of money to be made for us, but I think owning LUNA tokens is about as close as you can come to buying stocks in Amazon or google in early 2000's.
nhill
Member
Thu Sep 23 04:32:31
I've started to read about it this week! It has a lot of potential.

I'm not done understanding it, so I'll hold off on my "review", but I love what I see so far and started a small position to support the project.

As for $AVAX, I keep my exposure on that network staked in Wonderland with the $TIME coin (that turns into $MEMOries when staked, fun stuff).

http://www.wonderland.money/

I was one of the first 100 wallets and bought it at around $600. It's up to $3,736.99 now. :D

The reason I like it over $AVAX on the upside is because its only liquidity pool is an $AVAX-$TIME LP. Which means it automatically goes up in fiat value as $AVAX does (since it's not priced in USD, it's priced in $AVAX).

So, essentially it's like buying leveraged $AVAX that you can stake for yield to hedge against a drawdown.

That and $OHM are my two best performing holds right now.

$OHM is working much better than I expected as a crypto-native reserve asset. People used it as intended during the crash, and moved their crypto exposure into $OHM.

It's quietly becoming the most important development in the crypto-native space that I've seen in years.

A crypto-native reserve currency that appreciates as all other cryptos go down? Incredible game changer, as this finally frees us from the influence of Bitcoin.

It still needs a few more stress tests, but, right now, it's working super well. Not going up very much when the rest of crypto is going up, but went up fast as it was going down.

Luna looks great for the crypto to practical reality space, and $OHM looks great for the crypto-native space.

The ecosystem is maturing before our very eyes. I'm like a proud parent right now. :')
nhill
Member
Thu Sep 23 04:36:46
> Of course AVAX has gone crazy since then. Doesn’t matter, it was the first one to go green and I had decided that I need more SCs in reserve. Gotta stick with the plan and not FOMO.

Don't worry, my $TAROT went up about 8.8% since derisking my yield farm (was farming TAROT-FTM as my biggest field). I care zero. Booked a +25% gain in 24 hours.

Remember, Dukhat waits at least two years for his S&P500 ETF to book at +25% gain.

You didn't miss out on anything. :)

Plus, right now the big two (ETH & BTC) are right up against very strong resistance.

So strong, I have considered shorting one or the other. But I'm so happy and positive on crypto right now I can't bring myself to do it, lol. Simply selling is short enough for me right now.

Plus, if it breaks resistance, being caught offsides will be extremely painful.

Nobody went broke booking gains!
nhill
Member
Thu Sep 23 04:43:40
> One thing to mention about their DeFi, so far I have yet to find any kind of LP farming with crazy APY's. They do have dex for trading mirror stocks, but all of this consolidates around being a user oriented retail ready system. There are no huge amounts of money to be made for us, but I think owning LUNA tokens is about as close as you can come to buying stocks in Amazon or google in early 2000's.

Crazy APYs often come with crazy risks, so I don't see this as a negative. It's all about Risk-Reward.

Aping into a leveraged yield farm on a small cap Fantom project with an anon developer is probably much riskier than yield farms on LUNA, I suspect. Don't know enough about the LUNA ecosystem to say for sure, but I'd bet on that being the case. :)

And yeah, if LUNA can survive the Great Culling we'll see over the next decade, it will very much be like investing in Amazon or Apple in the early days.

People talk shit about crypto because it has outsized returns (must be scam/ponzi!). But no one mentions that if you bought AAPL stock in 1996 you'd have 132,490% returns by now!

Wow +132,490%. What a ponzi! ;)
nhill
Member
Thu Sep 23 04:46:27
I just sold a jpeg of an digital anime waifu for $1100, AMA.
nhill
Member
Thu Sep 23 04:47:29
a digital anime waifu*

Also, before the previous thread drops, let's not break the chain:

http://uto...hread=88567&time=1631540138678 ;)
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Thu Sep 23 05:07:13
"I'm not done understanding it, so I'll hold off on my "review", but I love what I see so far and started a small position to support the project."

Sweet :) my own review is tentative and surface level, but I do think that surface level is one of The Things with LUNA.

$OHM

Ok, so how are you using OHM? You use it as a safe haven instead of sitting with SCs?

"Plus, right now the big two (ETH & BTC) are right up against very strong resistance"

Indeed, I think there is a decent chance of retesting 39-42K today or tomorrow, if we do not break this ceiling. People are very nervous on fridays and nothing good has happened since last friday. The contagion narrative is still on full blast, I read today, "WORSE than Lehman brothers".
nhill
Member
Thu Sep 23 05:13:14
"Ok, so how are you using OHM? You use it as a safe haven instead of sitting with SCs?"

For my Ethereum chain (UniSwap) bags, yes. I'll swap to $OHM and stake it instead of going to stablecoins.

Once $OHM is cross-chain, I'd be happy to do the same for everything else, but, right now, it's ETH-only (still so early on this one, too, only 16,000 wallets in the world have $OHM/$sOHM in it).
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Thu Sep 23 06:40:26
I am noting everything you say.

In line with the thesis, I sold my LUNA for a 3-4% loss at 33.15. It was for me a big position and I need to preserve capital, will scale into LUNA again starting 31 USD. Solfarm and Reaper still running.

Let's see if BTC does anything convincing.
nhill
Member
Thu Sep 23 12:53:16
Looks like BTC broke initial resistance on the news that Twitter is rolling out Bitcoin payments for p2p tips.

Could fuel a nice rally here. As usual, I'd like to see a retest and strength to confirm support before going all out. But I did put some risk on again.
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