Utopia Talk / Politics / Crypto corner

Nimatzo iChihuaha	Thu Sep 23 13:09:13 Previous thread http://uto...hread=88583&time=1632419596074 LAat post nhill Member Thu Sep 23 12:53:16 Looks like BTC broke initial resistance on the news that Twitter is rolling out Bitcoin payments for p2p tips. Could fuel a nice rally here. As usual, I'd like to see a retest and strength to confirm support before going all out. But I did put some risk on again.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Thu Sep 23 13:31:17 If you ever decide to play whale on a small cap DM me so I surf the wave ;)
nhill Member	Thu Sep 23 18:20:51 Haha, will do. Looks like some nice consolidation above resistance with solid retests on BTC: http://i.imgur.com/QnvMd6Q.png Ethereum painted a lot of bearish divergences on the 1 hour time frame ... usually not a good sign. But Bitcoin looks great. I'm going to keep some risk on, as ultimately BTC controls the narrative here, but I'm not going full-on until ETH can paint bullish.
murder Member	Thu Sep 23 19:13:03 "Twitter is rolling out Bitcoin payments for p2p tips." I'm sure that will be massive.
nhill Member	Thu Sep 23 19:50:37 It'll take simping to a whole 'nother level, that's for sure. ;)
nhill Member	Thu Sep 23 22:07:40 BTC broke support levels… expecting downside from here. Shorting BTC @ 44500
nhill Member	Fri Sep 24 01:03:48 Closing 44234
nhill Member	Fri Sep 24 01:24:01 That was a strong bounce off the local trendline. Looks like the recovery is still healthy. Nice little pullback and bounce there for BTC. Made a little profit (0.6%) on the short side to hedge the DeFi farms and potential retrace. Not outta the woods yet until we can reclaim above resistance ~$44,600 and turn it back into support. But it's a good look for now!
nhill Member	Fri Sep 24 01:27:13 As for FTM it's still bumping heads against the 1.225 resistance level. But I never worry about FTM. No matter how far it drops, it recovers. Coin is still undervalued for its fundamentals (should be $3.00 by end of year, $10 by end of next year).
nhill Member	Fri Sep 24 01:33:23 Wonderland looks nice. Had a pullback from $3,9677 to $3,068.30. It's hard to price the coin as it has gone up so fast, but I don't see it dipping much more than this if BTC/ETH are continuing to recovery. Even at a $3068.30 premium, the treasury can back a 35,612.8% APY through the bonding. With that type of yield, anything under $3,561 is going to be a steal for long term stakers. As even if it went down to $1, you'd still make a profit from the compounding. $OHM also had a nice pullback. I find it reasonably priced as long as it is under $700, considering the yield it gives from its treasury. Currently it's $621.
nhill Member	Fri Sep 24 01:54:15 Lol it literally spiked to $3,226.57 right after I posted that. Which one of you here is lurking and copy trading? XD
nhill Member	Fri Sep 24 03:07:55 $3,335.01 now ... But anyways. BTC broke back through resistance and tested it as support. Quite the battle going on right now. The Twitter news seems to have brought some momentum that has been hard for bears to suppress (check $BTC.D chart to see it). That, combined with China debasing its currency, might be enough dry powder to get us out of the September range. But for the immediate term, I'd like to get $BTC out of its channel, i.e. hold > $45,300 before we have a chance to test the range. There's a lot of gravity right now. This dump was interrupted by news and bears are pissed. I'm sure they were hoping for 36-38K for a long entry, but again, the price went up before we it. Sure seems like a bull market pullback to me, so far. A lot of OGs are still calling for lows in the 10s & 20s because of previous bear cycles. But I'm not buying it yet.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Fri Sep 24 03:22:41 I wish, but I was sleeping :( looks like ETH is being bypassed? We talked about this, why would new money enter a congested and expensive protocol? Why not go into LUNA, AVAX, FTM ir SOL? Seen some figures and there are a lot of new wallets in play, small time investors are entering the fray. I had a buy order for avax that was triggered at 72 usd. Looking for a good place to enter LUNA again, though it is friday… I’m in no hurry.
nhill Member	Fri Sep 24 03:36:28 There's still not a lot of awareness in the wider investment community of anything other than Ethereum and Bitcoin. Plus Ethereum and Bitcoin are the safest investments. Both protocols have the advantage of the hash power securing it and 5-10 years of being proved out. Then you consider things like mutual funds which are almost exclusively BTC or ETH, and that partly explains the new money inflows. Remember, we're spoiled in the crypto world with coins like FTM where we can make 25% or more in 24 hours. Most traditional investors are plenty impressed by 5-10%. There's also a lack of knowledge out there. Another thing is that apps like Robinhood only support BTC/ETH/LTC/DOGE, etc. Thankfully the good coins still have relatively low liquidity so they both have more upside and can move faster. On trading platforms like Binance a lot of people trade the BTC pairs, e.g. ETH/BTC, FTM/BTC, etc. That's why $BTC remains king when it comes to fiat denominations and when it goes down everything goes down faster. Because, if your base denomination is going down in fiat terms, the crypto itself will also go down with it. Even if nobody sold FTM it would still go down when BTC does simply because of the FTM/BTC pair. Think of it this way... right now the FTM/BTC pair is worth 0.00002751 BTC. If 0.00002751 goes down 5% in fiat terms, the FTM in that pair would also go down 5% as that's the denominator. Now, you combine that with the fact that BTC is considered the safer asset, and you can see why when BTC drops 5%, FTM probably drops 10-15%. All cryptos on exchanges are essentially leveraged BTC at their core. Some to varying degrees of leverage (depends on the volume and liquidity of the USDT pair vs BTC pair). On the other hand, BTC is solely denominated in fiat or stablecoins. That's why, all things being equal, Bitcoin will perform better in a bear market. It's also why innovations like $OHM that don't get their liquidity from $BTC are so critical for altcoins. It's still super early for it to make a difference, but at 1 billion market cap, it's certainly catching on!
nhill Member	Fri Sep 24 04:13:17 > China Central Bank Says Overseas Cryptocurrency Exchanges Must Not Provide Services To Mainland Investors > China Central Bank Says Cryptocurrency-related Activities Are Illegal Well that certainly dropped the bottom outta the market. China bans crypto (again, for like the 20th time). Shorting $43700, let's see how far it dumps! :D
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Fri Sep 24 04:20:10 No you are right. It’s part wishful thinking and some bias looking for patterns on my part. Look at that sell off btw :-)
nhill Member	Fri Sep 24 04:27:43 Hmm I think this China news is actually from September 15th. As far as I can tell, this is the source: http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/4QWsmCyksuDGQO8eKiixwA Statement was from the 15th, but it was put up on the China central bank website tonight maybe? Unsure. But I'm definitely going to buy this dip once I close my short. China dips are the tastiest. ;)
nhill Member	Fri Sep 24 04:32:39 Selfishly I'm pretty happy right now. have some stablecoin reserves that I'd like to blow now that the trend is our friend ... and this gives the perfect FUD-driven pullback to make a great entry. Time to go alt shopping! Not going to buy until it settles down, but I'm scrounging the bargain bins looking for some overdumped gems.
nhill Member	Fri Sep 24 04:35:05 I think I'll scoop up some Tezos and Luna here when the dust settles. I'd started a small Luna position, but would like to feed it a bit. Tezos is in a great position to feed off the NFT craze that will hype up again here in the next few weeks (good time to buy while NFTs are cooled off imo).
nhill Member	Fri Sep 24 04:38:03 I'd prefer the 4 hour candle to close before making any decisions...so minimum of 2.5 hours before I make any real moves. Gonna take a nap. *yawn*
nhill Member	Fri Sep 24 05:19:32 Closing short 42517, +2.8% Don't think it's done dumping, but just to be safe going to lock in profits here.
murder Member	Fri Sep 24 07:26:50 Now we only need the US and EU to ban fake money.
nhill Member	Fri Sep 24 07:56:19 But then what would we do without the US Dollar? ;)
murder Member	Fri Sep 24 08:00:53 Be poor I guess. :o)
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Fri Sep 24 09:05:59 Alright, I'm in a much better position this time :) That AVAX order seems to have worked out OK. Despite that LUNA sell being a waste, but at the time nothing indicated LUNA was gonna go crazy. I did a trade yesterday with LUNA making up some of that loss B:36 -> S:38, but still a net loss there.. An observation is that, at least the things on my radar, AVAX and LUNA rallied really hard and quickly. Another one is RAY, suffers from low liquidity, so that sucker is 30-60% upside from here. Nhill What do you make of this stgnation during the summer rally? http://www...mber-of-ethereum-transactions/
nhill Member	Fri Sep 24 11:49:04 It's trying to make me register to see it. But I assume is it saying Ethereum transactions stagnated? That's because alternative L1 chains matured over the year and gas prices are still quite high even with EIP-1559. EIP-1559 doesn't really help prices, even, it helps *predictability* of prices. Also, it screws miners (unnecessarily, IMO) by burning the fee instead of rewarding it to miners. There's still the block reward (and a potential small tip), but my mining revenue has gone down a lot. :p
nhill Member	Fri Sep 24 11:53:24 AVAX and LUNA are both great. RAY is interesting. It's a yield farm token so it's very inflationary by nature. People get it as a reward for providing liquidity to the Raydium Exchange. Which naturally most people will sell right away. Although you can stake it too. Eventually I expect Raydium to build more use cases for their token, which will cause it to appreciate over time. Just I've learned to be extra careful with yield tokens. $AVAX is inflationary but it has a real use case as it's used for gas. Luna also has a real use case of stabilizing the protocol and is used for governance.
nhill Member	Fri Sep 24 11:54:36 I farm $SOL and $RAY on Solfarm, so naturally I'm bullish on the token over time. But I also expect periods of depreciation as the protocol matures.
nhill Member	Fri Sep 24 18:39:49 I derisked my DeFi farms again when $ETH was at $2977 about an hour ago. Volume looks like shit heading into the weekend. Don't want to get dumped on, and, again, made a tidy profit (+22% profit on $SPELL with the fUSDT-SPELL LP leveraged on Tarot) buying the dip. Pump it or dump it. I care not. My stablecoins are ready for another correction. >:)
nhill Member	Fri Sep 24 18:47:51 I still stand by my original thesis for $2600-2900 being an accumulation zone for Ethereum. Why? Because that's my accumulation zone. ;) Gotta think like a whale. My guess is that the price will continue to be pushed into this range for a while until whale bags are filled. Then it'll be a violent upswing to new all-time highs. Thesis invalidated if $ETH sustains PA under $2600. Otherwise...it's a bull market confirmed. Nim If you want to research the accumulation and distribution patterns, spend some time learning about Wyckoff Schematics (particularly accumulation and distribution). These are patterns whales use to keep the price in their desired range to prevent slippage. Be careful with this, though. People like to chart Wycoff Schematics and use them predicatively, but I find that rarely works. As the schematics are most effectively applied in hindsight. They aren't a great leading indicator because the timeframe is only evident ex post facto.
nhill Member	Fri Sep 24 23:26:26 "nhill Member Fri Sep 24 06:27:1 But I never worry about FTM. No matter how far it drops, it recovers." :)
nhill Member	Sat Sep 25 02:12:02 I'm going to predict $2 for Fantom by the end of next week (October 3rd). Not even Bitcoin crashing is going to hold it down Wait and see. NFA ;)
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Sat Sep 25 03:40:25 "I farm $SOL and $RAY on Solfarm, so naturally I'm bullish on the token over time." Yea me too, I meant RAY as a short/medium term trade. "People like to chart Wycoff Schematics and use them predicatively, but I find that rarely works" Will do. Is the fib ret. predictive value better you would say? "I'm going to predict $2 for Fantom by the end of next week (October 3rd)." Now there is a full degen scenario =) I do have enough in that farm, that if it did, I would 100% take out all the accrued interest. But what is happening? I know there is a dev conference 25-29th, you think as part of the run up? You have some inside scope =) An idea is that retire the SOL farm and place it all on FTM, at least in the short term.
nhill Member	Sat Sep 25 04:00:38 Multiple angles on this one: * Artion release is going to cause a flood of Fantom enthusiasts. * Fantom dev conference this week will have some surprises. * Tarot farms will release FTM incentives as part of their incentive program. * A few other predictions on smaller projects (e.g. $SPELL staking) that are imminent. None of this is insider knowledge, more of a confluence of the charts, public knowledge, intuition, and trends. I could be wrong here, but I feel as if $FTM is on the cusp of another rally. Remember, I predicted $1 by end of September, and that seemed outlandish at the time. >:)
nhill Member	Sat Sep 25 04:03:06 > RAY as a short/medium term trade Personally, I wouldn't trade $RAY or any yield farm token. It's very much dependent on the long term appreciation. I bought in at around $2.50 IIRC and the bulk of the appreciation was from it being listed on Binance. I didn't predict or have any knowledge of the listing. I just knew the marquee farms get listed eventually. $BOO is a token that will get listed. It's going to be the next $RAY. You heard it here first... again...
nhill Member	Sat Sep 25 04:05:02 Price prediction: $BOO will be worth $55.89 within the next 6 months.
nhill Member	Sat Sep 25 04:11:18 > Will do. Is the fib ret. predictive value better you would say? Yes, fib retracement / extension have better predictive value for specific entry/exit points. Wyckoff Schematics help you understand the macro perspective, but don't necessarily help with trading in my experience. But some people swear by it, so it may click for you. I don't want to come off as the be all, end all. Rather, I'm trying to share what has worked for me over the years in the narrow set of scenarios that I found suitable for a technique. It's the confluence of techniques that makes it successful, but I suspect everyone has their unique composition that is suited to their knowledge stack and psychology.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Sat Sep 25 04:15:33 BTW I have been look for a way to get interest on USD denominated stablecoins. The Solfarm lending (USDC) looks pretty neat. Easy, straight forward. They do however take 10% of the interest, there is that, but on the other hand no LP pairs, no bridging, I do like the simplicity. I know you use AAEV, but my understanding is that the gas fees are higher even on Polygon, compared to SOL. I read whatever little there was to read, thought I raise it see if there is something I am missing before I do it.
nhill Member	Sat Sep 25 04:21:37 http://www.tarot.to/ is where I lend out stablecoins. You can get around 30-70% there for single-sided lending. Don't be tempted into leveraging the LPs unless you understand it. It's risky and requires a lot of skill and management to profit from a leveraged yield farm. But you can single-sided stake with no risk. Just lend out $fUSDT, $USDC, $DAI, or $BUSD to one of the pools. It will grow automatically, no management necessary. It's what I currently do for my stablecoins. Haven't used stables on AAVE for weeks. :) The opportunities move fast so I don't necessarily update every aspect here.
nhill Member	Sat Sep 25 04:25:06 I don't really use Polygon at all any more, other than some choice investments in projects that only have their coins on Polygon (e.g. $GHST). Most of my DeFi has moved to Solana, Arbitrum, Avalanche, and Fantom. I follow the developers. I was extremely bullish on Polygon around January of this year (and got over 10x returns on it), but at this point it's old news.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Sat Sep 25 04:26:03 "$You heard it here first... again..." I guess I'm gonna have to stake some boo and xboo :)
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Sat Sep 25 04:32:53 "But you can single-sided stake with no risk. Just lend out $fUSDT, $USDC, $DAI, or $BUSD to one of the pools. It will grow automatically, no management necessary." My man, yea that looks just as easy and much better :D
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Sat Sep 25 04:33:25 I stay away from any and all kinds of leverage, especially right now.
nhill Member	Sat Sep 25 04:34:28 I certainly am. :)
nhill Member	Sat Sep 25 04:35:26 ^wrt to $xBOO. As for leverage, that's wise. Things are volatile and unpredictable. Leverage is fun but can go wrong quickly...
nhill Member	Sat Sep 25 04:44:18 Btw if you want to keep track of things across chains I like the debank dashboard. And because I'm a bit drunk right now (both on the FTM rally and anejo tequila) I'll share mine: http://imgur.com/Omm0sGB Basically it aggregates everything together in one view from EVM compatible chains like Ethereum, Avalanche, Fantom, Polygon, etc. (Arbitrum isn't showing up in mine yet because I'm still in the research phase, but I plan on starting DeFi there soon)
nhill Member	Sat Sep 25 04:46:38 http://imgur.com/a/FYAV7ws here I'll even put my username on it so the haters don't think I'm just posting some random link ;)
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Sat Sep 25 05:04:23 Oh you bastard. Nice stash! Very helpful tool, keeps you from using a calculator and read the numbers off multiple sites everyday like we are living in the stone ago. Thanks!
nhill Member	Sat Sep 25 21:37:37 Thank you ser. It's been a long road to get there!
nhill Member	Sun Sep 26 08:20:37 Once again ETH shoots out of the demand zone, confirming to me that $2600-$2900 is where accumulation is taking place. I expect it to continue to get pushed in that zone until all bags are filled. No idea how long it'll take.
nhill Member	Sun Sep 26 19:52:04 May need to have some patience with $FTM here. So many bullish fundamentals are fermenting under the scenes. I'm thought we'll see them released (TAROT incentive program and $SPELL staking) this week, but, if not, it may take a minute to hit $2. But it's coming. No idea when SpookySwap will get the listing boost, but that's coming also. It took a couple months after I bought $RAY, so perhaps a month or two down the road. In the meantime staking $BOO for $xBOO and staking $xBOO for $FTM is a fine investment. $BOO is mainly leveraged $FTM (check the liquidity pools ^_^), so when $FTM goes up, $BOO will go up faster. The inverse is true also. But this is a macro play for me. No rush. Any price under $30 is a steal.
nhill Member	Sun Sep 26 19:53:10 I think we'll see them released this week.* Oops, copy pasted what I was writing elsewhere and messed up the tense when tweaking it.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Mon Sep 27 02:15:34 I started xBOO. Being patient with FTM is easy, that farm has worked out pretty good.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Mon Sep 27 02:26:06 I’m actually thinking about pulling solfarm and moving that value into FTM and xboo.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Mon Sep 27 02:49:33 But on the other hand, I should probably not go full degen, or shall we call it full rabbi? :) About leveraged farming of USD denominated SCs. You can do this without risk of liquidation? By cutting yourself a healthy margin, factoring in the leverage. I don't remember how much USD SCs could fall off peg, but 2-3% right? With a 10X leverage that would be 20-30%. So only borrow 50-60%. Probably 50% just to be really safe. Are you doing this? The thing is, quite clearly, DeFi farms are far less time consuming and if I average it out, probably making me as much money as I can do trading. Sure the APY/APR drops, but until I have the time to analyze and pay more attention, this is far more effective.
nhill Member	Mon Sep 27 10:16:42 Nice! I would recommend staying diversified. You never know when a hack or blockchain DDoS or whatever may hit. Always good to stay nimble and liquid. ;) I'm usually in about 8-10 small caps at a time. Partly because I have too much crypto and I'd move the price too much, but mostly because diversification is the key to success! As for the stablecoin pairs on Tarot, you can leverage them pretty much as far as you want. I have one that's been leveraged 15X for a while (fUSDT-BUSD pair). The only issue is that sometime the borrow APR exceeds the farming APR (when the $TAROT crypto is on sale), so you get exposed to a negative APR. That isn't as bad as it sounds though. It only goes negative when $TAROT is trading at a low price (under $1), so all you have to do is hold onto the farmed token until it raises in price and you are still in the green. Remember, on this platform you can only be liquidated through impermanent loss and it uses a time-weighted average price to prevent sudden changes from liquidating you. Also, liquidation returns you your collateral minus a 4% fee, so it's not as scary as being liquidated on Binance or something like that. You don't ever lose all your initial collateral. Sometimes the stablecoin farms can be hard to leverage because people aren't supplying enough coins. At that point, I like to supply coins. You can get 50-100% APR on a stablecoin simply by supplying it. No farming, no risk of impermanent loss, no maintenance. You just watch your money grow. :)
nhill Member	Mon Sep 27 10:19:25 > Remember, on this platform you can only be liquidated through impermanent loss and it uses a time-weighted average price to prevent sudden changes from liquidating you. Also, if you spot the impermanent loss, you can mitigate it by borrowing the imbalanced crypto. Shouldn't need to do that with stable pairs, though. My favorite Tarot farm is the fUSDT-SPELL pair. I have it leveraged 5x. But sometimes SPELL can move fast so I'll either have to borrow SPELL or fUSDT to keep the ratio balanced (and then sell half, create liquidity pair, then deposit to balance out the leverage).
nhill Member	Mon Sep 27 10:23:18 SPELL is one of my favorite new cryptos. It's from the http://abracadabra.money/ project that I like. Basically the project is the same thing as Liquity, and you know how much I liked the Liquity model. ;) Although this one isn't immutable. But I'm familiar with the lead developer in the project and I think it has a lot of potential. I expect them to release $SPELL staking on $FTM soon (could be wrong...only have hints), which is partly why I think FTM is about to take off this week.
nhill Member	Mon Sep 27 11:13:17 The fact that they haven't been able to keep Ethereum in the accumulation range for long periods of time (and usually only on a weekend) is incredibly bullish. It sounds crazy right now, but I can see Ethereum hitting $6000 by end of the year. And I can't even imagine how high some of the alts will hit if this plays out.
nhill Member	Mon Sep 27 11:19:15 That said, I would not be surprised to see one final push deep into accumulation for a last ride and attempt to shake out weak and over-leveraged hands. But once we're out of this pullback and hold above $3200-$3400, it's going to explode. So much fresh liquidity has been injected into the market.
nhill Member	Mon Sep 27 12:56:59 > I would not be surprised to see one final push deep into accumulation. Or even multiple pushes, for that matter. I wouldn't mind at all if we keep pushing it down to 2600-2900. Allows me to accumulate more as I finish up AI contracts that will be paid out in USD. ;) Basically, at this point, I'm not worried about going back into the May-June range again (not ruling it out, either, but it seems less likely each day). We had so much bad news happen all at once and it didn't even graze $2600. The Evergrande issue (outside of the pandemic, imo it has been the biggest systemic economic threat for around 7 years), China making crypto even _more_ illegal, Solana getting DDoSed, weak volume, pump n dump n pump n dump, Sparkpool shutting down, etc. All that and the selling has only pushed us in the accumulation zone for about 20 total hours of the past week. And we also got confirmation that China is willing to debase its currency to prevent an economic meltdown. I don't think it's any coincidence that they made crypto more illegal right after they printed around 20 billion USD worth of yuans. Crypto is meant to fight agains the effects of such unilateral actions.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Mon Sep 27 13:46:04 "recommend staying diversified" You are right, I figured if I type out what the degen in me is thinking, I can hold myself accountable :) "As for the stablecoin pairs on Tarot, you can leverage them pretty much as far as you want. I have one that's been leveraged 15X for a while (fUSDT-BUSD pair)." Hmm, how does this work, if you can only get liquidated for 4%, how is that leverage being paid? "All that and the selling has only pushed us in the accumulation zone for about 20 total hours of the past week." Unstoppable >:)
nhill Member	Mon Sep 27 14:00:27 > Hmm, how does this work, if you can only get liquidated for 4%, how is that leverage being paid? You're thinking in terms of traditional liquidation. :) These are linked pairs. So say I have $USDC-$FTM linked pair leveraged and $FTM goes to the moon. Well, that can make it so my linked pair isn't enough collateral to cover my $FTM debt (a forward liquidation, where you get liquidated for the crypto going up, not down), so the liquidation would use the value of my linked pair (which is half USDC) to pay off the $FTM debt and return you the leftover (minus the 4% penalty which goes to the liquidator). It's a very different model than leverage elsewhere. You are only leveraging the pair itself-- so if $FTM and $TAROT go up 2x, and you're 5x leveraged, you don't get 10x gains like you would with traditional leveraged (which is margined with USD). You would still get 2x. Because your debt increases at the same rate as your LP. What you're leveraging for is the liquidity provider rewards. And what you have to look out for is the imbalance between the two coins. The price doesn't actually matter for liquidation, simply the interaction between the coins in you liquidity pair.
nhill Member	Mon Sep 27 14:06:19 Note, that in the case of you getting liquidated because a crypto goes up too fast, you also experienced those gains along the way. So sans the 4% penalty, you are going to get more money out than you initially put into it.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Mon Sep 27 14:21:45 "What you're leveraging for is the liquidity provider rewards." "So sans the 4% penalty, you are going to get more money out than you initially put into it." Ah, I see.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Mon Sep 27 14:26:23 Is anything indicating that this friday will be different than the last? A good shake, maybe even a lower low. Then Monday China bans thinking of cryptocurrency and then Tuesday, BOOM! TO THE MOON!
nhill Member	Mon Sep 27 16:43:20 No reason that I can think! There's clearly deep pools of liquidity in the 2600s. They got tested three times and made a series of higher lows on the wicks. Would need to see some jet fuel for that support range to break. Maybe Elon Musk has another tweet in him? ;)
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Mon Sep 27 17:22:11 Dear lord, Tomb just jumped 100%+. o.O
nhill Member	Mon Sep 27 17:40:47 As expected. :)
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Mon Sep 27 18:22:55 I pity the fool that didn't listen! >:) I also notice the TVL has grown considerable over the last few days in the FTM-TOMB pool. Good signs :)
nhill Member	Mon Sep 27 19:01:23 Yep, Harry Yeh is a savvy investor. He wouldn't have taken on the project if it wasn't salvageable. That was my original thesis and here we are. Made a nice little penny on this one so far, glad you hopped on for the ride!
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Tue Sep 28 02:09:40 I wale up and it has returned to FTM peg :) my farm has effectively doubled in size!
nhill Member	Tue Sep 28 02:59:59 Nothing like a little two bagger. Honestly, I was surprised it returned to peg so quickly. I would have held $TOMB instead of farming if I had known. All coms had suggested it’d be a month or two before anything material. But looks like Harry found investors quickly. Oh well. Doubling your money never hurts.
nhill Member	Tue Sep 28 03:02:13 It all comes down to risk management in the end. The auto compounding farm was the least risky play, and ended up not having the most reward. Can’t complain, though.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Tue Sep 28 09:32:20 Yea, I am not gonna cry. Tomb carries risks, it is a project that got rekt once, this IL is acceptable. Nobody got poor _only_ doubling their money in a few weeks ;-) Now we wait for FTM to double.
nhill Member	Tue Sep 28 10:53:05 It's coming. Once ETH starts recovering FTM will be unstoppable. $TOMB is back up and running. Artion is picking up steam. Tarot incentive program should start soon. Yearn.Finance will launch on FTM soon. Abracadraba staking. Fantom dev conference (which is actually next month, I had my dates wrong). Tajikistan exploring using Fantom for its central bank. May be the first crypto outside of Bitcoin to be adopted as legal tender. Andre Cronje is focusing full time on Fantom development. I would bet he's got a few things cooking of which I'm not aware. One of these days, it's simply going to explode to $2 and beyond.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Tue Sep 28 11:30:08 ”Tajikistan” Awesome news and that it is FTM! It is interesting to watch how countries are dealing with this. Even among authortarian countries within the same axis eg China and Iran, how wildly different they are handling crypto. China is trying to regulate it out of existence, Iran is regulating it into the system. To China it is a threat, for sanctioned Iran it is an opportunity.
jergul large member	Tue Sep 28 11:41:36 For Iran it is an opportunity given the sanction regime.
nhill Member	Tue Sep 28 12:31:39 Forgot to mention Coinbase is most likely going to list FTM soon, another reason for the price to spike.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Tue Sep 28 12:45:44 That is a string of good news for FTM.
nhill Member	Tue Sep 28 22:07:47 Yup ... I'm not an FTM maximalist though, simply an opportunity maximalist. Once I think FTM has reached fair value (similar market cap to Solana) I'll be on the lookout for the next diamond in the rough.
nhill Member	Tue Sep 28 23:39:16 Hmm would you look at that. ETH once again spends about 20 hours in the accumulation zone, makes another higher lower, and shoots back out of it. I swear I'm not the market maker. ;) Let's see how many more times they can try this. They barely got it below $2800 this time around. So we've gone: $2650 (9/21) $2733 (9/24) $2743 (9/26) $2785 (9/29) Hmm. Doesn't take a Dukhat to spot this pattern. Eventually they won't be able to push it under $2900 anymore, and a massive rally will be triggered as shorters are forced to switch bias. Watch. popcorn.gif (my guess is that Q4 will open with a bang and that there's be one final push into accumulation on Thursday. Friday pump, weekend dump, and next week send it. Could be wrong here. It's a bit dependent on politics, as we need the debt ceiling raised for people to ape into risk assets.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Wed Sep 29 07:09:53 Commodities in Quad 2 and 3! Long BTC ;) What do you do in quad 4 with respect to crypto? If we view it as a high risk commodity as you explained. There is more finesse here I assume than simply selling everything.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Wed Sep 29 07:10:48 Or rather as we are about to transition to quad 4.
nhill Member	Wed Sep 29 09:59:28 Quad 4 is extremely tough to trade. Sustained deflation usually means crypto rallies are short and sweet, and the corrections nasty. If Keith is right that we are about to transition to quad 4 (he's usually right, would say about 70% of the time), my strategy is to lend out stablecoins more heavily and book gains more readily. I think risk-averse assets like $OHM that are denominated in USD will do well, also. I have a large position in $OHM that I've been staking since it was under $300 (now $700, but also has around 7000% APY).
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Wed Sep 29 12:57:13 "strategy is to lend out stablecoins more heavily and book gains more readily." These farms looks so nice, I have been tempted to move all our money into one. The the risk in the code and whatever custodial risk that are still there and having no insurance. How do we create a decentralized insurance for your tokens? Is this a concept yet? Or will such levels of safety start and die with the code?
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Wed Sep 29 12:58:24 I botched that sentence. The risk in the code and whatever custodial risk that are still there and having no insurance *has kept me away*.
nhill Member	Wed Sep 29 14:12:47 Yeah, that's fair. The risks are real, rugs and bugs are common. http://unslashed.finance/ offers insurance for a whitelisted set of protocols. Right now it's pretty adhoc it looks like, but I imagine in the future there'll be a standard actuary insurance model (e.g. based on code audits, TVL, protocol security, etc.). A lot of these yields are based on risk/reward, too, so I expect the opportunity to decrease a bit as the ecosystem matures. Right now a lot of the rewards are so high to overcome the risk tolerance and encourage liquidity. :) Once DeFi is less risky and has deeper liquidity, I would expect the 50-100% APRs on stablecoin lending to decrease significantly. But you're still being the bank and reaping 100% of the rewards, so 10-20% is within reach and beats the pants off any yield in TradFi. The core principle here is you get access to the same profit margins as the banks themselves in DeFi.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Wed Sep 29 14:23:50 "http://unslashed.finance/" Very cool that these things are spawning. "I expect the opportunity to decrease a bit as the ecosystem matures." Hence the constant temptations :D
nhill Member	Wed Sep 29 14:48:21 The cool thing is that you can supply capital to back the insurance premiums and obtain yield that way. So you can be the insurance company, too! But who insurers the insurers? ;) In the end, it's going to come down to trusting well-vetted code. After all, that's the spirit of decentralization! But I wouldn't be surprised if we see centralized insurance companies jump into the arena. There's money to be made and a nice use case. Using decentralized financed but having your deposits covered by a centralized insurance company will reassure a subset of the population. Which is part of the reason why I said I think over 50% of financial transactions will happen in DeFi in the coming decades. I never said 100% :) Centralized finance will always have its place, but DeFi will be the part of the infrastructure they leverage. The cool thing is that enterprising individuals such as ourselves can leverage it alread, whereas the Dukhat's of the world will have to wait until their "Smart Friends" recommend them a service that adds a fee on top of what we're already doing. :)
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Wed Sep 29 15:50:16 Sooo, how well vetted is Tarot >:)
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Wed Sep 29 15:51:27 Or Olympus DAO for that matter.
nhill Member	Wed Sep 29 16:09:13 Tarot: Solo anonymous developer. One of the riskier projects. But it's forked from the Impermax codebase which has passed multiple audits, and I haven't seen any issues in my audit. That said, solo anon developers are the ones most often rugging or getting hacked. I don't get a bad vibe from him/her (chatted a bit), but there's the reason I see it more on the degen side of the play. The code is pretty good, so, if you want to prevent a rug, just sell the $TAROT token as you farm it instead of holding it. But the liquidity pool was generated pretty fairly, so I don't mind holding the token. But it's up to your risk tolerance. The real risky projects are ones that provide the initial liquidity pool, as they could drain it at any time (called a rug). This one had a liquidity generation event that allowed everyone to participate, so that risk is hedged (although a clever rugger could have just used a bunch of wallets and acted like it was fair, so there's always risk). Olympus: Olympus DAO is very safe. It's been out for a while, has had multiple audits, and the dev team is well known. The DAO itself is very transparent about everything. Salaries, marketing budgets, etc. On the scale of 0-10, 0 being a dog coin on Binance Smart Chain, and 10 being Bitcoin, I'd give Olympus DAO a 7 for security (5 would be average, so 7 is pretty high, especially for an ERC20 token).
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Wed Sep 29 16:37:06 Clear as always, thank you Nhill.
nhill Member	Wed Sep 29 17:22:03 Sure thing!
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Fri Oct 01 06:07:03 And bird that allegedly knows a whale just told me to sell everything. Do what you will with that info. I checked coinanlyze and oepn intrest is collapsing. Preceded by rising open interest in a sideways market. Don't know what the latter indicates, but it looks fishy! Was not expecting this surge today, the opposite in fact. I don't like it! I am not touching the farms, and that is right now my only exposure.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Fri Oct 01 06:30:16 "Preceded by rising open interest in a sideways market" Scratch that. I was seeing things wrong. It's just collapsing OI, a lot of short positions got liquidated.
Habebe Member	Fri Oct 01 06:34:32 "And bird that allegedly knows a whale just told me to sell everything. Do what you will with that info" Yeah, a lot of people for a while now have been predicting a matket crash this fall, and the worldy economy has already been shaky, evergrande is another jenga block being pulled out.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Fri Oct 01 06:55:19 I see that a slower pump brought BTC above the level of the lower high around 44800. That could indicate that this is a natural rally in the wake of a bullish sign, maybe?
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Fri Oct 01 06:58:31 "a lot of people for a while now have been predicting a matket crash this fall" Probably not this early in the fall though, November December as companies are closing the fiscal year. I have this, probably unfounded, idea that bad things usually happen after new year.
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