Utopia Talk / Politics / Jergul crypto classic

Nimatzo iChihuaha	Tue Dec 21 03:41:27 This is the fork of Jergul Crypto where we continue the classical tale of DeFi, the metaverse and the digital dystopia that awaits us. The previous block: http://uto...hread=88992&time=1640034656074 In today's crypto news Terra (Luna) has rushed up to the nr 2 spot of DeFi TVL just barely above Binance Smart Chain, due to Astroport. Astroport has over 1 billion in TVL pre launch.
nhill Member	Tue Dec 21 13:58:43 Nice! $JEWEL looks like it's in price discovery, will probably settle in the $15-20 range is my guess. :)
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Wed Dec 22 05:27:07 To buy or not to buy, that is the question. You ape and get rekt or you play it cautious and are left in the dust. What are you gonna do? lol :)
nhill Member	Wed Dec 22 08:05:49 It's tough missing a move like that :( It should pull back here soon, looks like it just touched the bottom of my sell range ($15). I'm still holding, but slowly converting my $xJEWEL to LPs in this range. Then I can garden and chill. :) Normally in this situation, I'd recommend you put funds into the $JEWEL-$USDC LP (or other L1 like $LUNA if feeling frisky) and then convert the non-$JEWEL side into $xJEWEL on the next dip. Would give you upside exposure but downside risk management. Unfortunately DeFi Kingdoms farms have early withdrawal penalties to prevent predatory farming and flash loan attacks, so that's nice really feasible here...
nhill Member	Wed Dec 22 08:05:58 not really feasible*
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Wed Dec 22 09:07:18 To be honest it is strange that more platforms don’t have that and the locking up of profits. Rent seekers will just merc the incentive programs, it is just too easy.
nhill Member	Wed Dec 22 15:19:07 Agreed.
nhill Member	Wed Dec 22 15:21:15 $LUNA looks like it topped out. Of course it was before $100 to front run the meme. :) I'm looking to enter at around $76-80 for a bounce, provided ETH & BTC continue to plod upwards. $ATOM looks like it caught the rotation out of $LUNA. Still have some bags there...might sell them for $LUNA after they run a bit to front run another rotation. Be like water!
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Wed Dec 22 17:02:16 I put all my Luna into Astroport. Had been staking it since 40 USD. Gonna branch out on the Terraverse once the Astroport launch is done. Take profits as UST and put into anchor.
nhill Member	Wed Dec 22 21:06:05 Nice! I looked at Astroport yesterday, appears to be a solid project. Attracted a ton of liquidity. Wish I had hopped on that rocket, but man, there's just so much value in the crypto ecosystem, I have to fight to resist over-diversifying. I consolidated many things into $JEWEL the past couple weeks, but, prior to that, I had tokens on about a dozen chains and a couple dozen projects. Got a bit overzealous at the buffet :) I prefer to limit myself to ~10 projects, ~15 max. Once you overdiversify, hitting a home run hurts because it's such a small amount of the overall portfolio. Sometimes I miss having just 5 or 6 figures. Was simpler times...hard to enter small caps now. I want to buy some Sentivate, but I'm resisting. :) The liquidity is so low that I'd probably double the market cap with a big entry...
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Thu Dec 23 04:33:17 You said it, consolidate, been thinking about that too funny enough. Yea Terra has had a more holistic and slower approach (not as slow as ADA lol) obviously a lot of community support, but it has lacked a solid DeFi platform, dex specifically (terraswap is so barebones and boring). So there has been a lot of pent up ambition and liquidity on the chain. The time is right! So about Grim. It does make sense that auto compounders, being an additional layer of code, would be an additional fail point. I don't know if you heard, and I don't know the specifics, but apparently this specific exploit, was actually something Solidity audited! Allegedly the response from them was that an intern had done the audit. I have not verified, but lol :) The good stuff is that the FTM community has come together to help out. Specifically Harry, but also this NFT project called Pod town. I think when the dust settles, with different compensation I may come out on top lol. Though I didn't have a lot there. I am so happy that you and I went through the perils of this stuff, that I spread out money not just on tokens, but also on platforms. I pulled out tomb-ftm from reaper and just put into tomb. Harry's big pockets is a good insurance to have in your back.
nhill Member	Thu Dec 23 11:00:55 That's been a recent attitude shift for me, too. The more layers of smart contracts, the higher the risk. Also auto-compounders prevent smart alpha gains because they always sell the farm token. If the project is a good project (e.g. $SPELL, $RAY) you don't want to sell the farm token at the lows. You're better off accumulating at the HTF lows and then selling high. One small cap I've been accumulating this past week is $MAGIC. Proven team behind the loot NFT project (abstract lists of loot that games can use in the metaverse). This project is very ambitious and is designed to be the reserve currency of the metaverse. They've already released an NFT marketplace for more metaverse abstractions. It's either going to 100x or go to 0 by the end of 2022. :) Too much ambition and hype for it to happen any other way. I've been accumulating it through Olympus Pro bonds. http://www.treasure.lol/ Note to any lurkers (not Nim): Research this shit yourself, this is not financial advice. On my small cap plays I expect about 7/10 to go to zero within a couple years. The other 3/10 will make up for all the money lost (100X is not uncommon). So you can't simply go all in on one small cap in crypto. Being wrong is part of the game. :)
murder Member	Thu Dec 23 11:12:44 "Allegedly the response from them was that an intern had done the audit." That's got to be a joke. :o)
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Thu Dec 23 11:35:52 Nhill Yea I hear you. Without auto-compounding you are forced to actively manage the profits and make a decision, reinvest or sell into something else. Feels like auto-compounding lends itself too readily to bad psychology. Murder Not so much a joke as much as it is a meme: It was the new guy. lol :) http://www...zes-for-missing-vulnerability/ "This audit was performed by an analyst who was new to the team... unfortunately this issue was not caught in our peer review process."
nhill Member	Fri Dec 24 09:41:43 Nim Agreed again. If you still have some $JEWEL, now would be a good time to take profits off the table. Looks like it's about tapped $15 but found price discover at around $14-15 range. It went through a massive hype cycle, and I imagine profits will be taken off the table soon as people tire of the shiny new thing. Long term though, I think $100 is in the cards for $JEWEL. That would put it around the market cap for Axie Infinity. Right now DeFi Kingdoms has 3x the daily activity (smart contract interactions) compared to Axie, so I think it's a fair comparison.
nhill Member	Fri Dec 24 09:44:12 A measured move would be about to $13.50 for a pullback if it's able to maintain forward momentum. Going to be hard to avoid a sell off though, with the 500-700% APR. I imagine quite a few people are waiting for their early withdrawal penalties to subside before taking profits, so maybe 3-5 days here we'll see it tap the bottom of the risk range. :)
nhill Member	Fri Dec 24 09:46:26 Meanwhile I'll have my 35 heroes doing quests and farming materials for the big releases down the pipe (crafting, etc.) I'm still hoping for a pet egg. There's a 0.01% of getting one on each quest, so I need to do around 10,000 quests on avg to get one. I'm probably getting close to that. I think I do about 100 quests a day.
nhill Member	Fri Dec 24 09:51:08 Pet eggs should be pretty valuable. I've not seen any on the open market yet, so the demand is super high with 0 supply. Each hero can do around 15-20 quests per day, so assuming the pet eggs will be worth ~$1000 (seems reasonable as the SHVA runes go for $50 and the pet eggs are 20x harder to drop), each hero can make around $30 from eggs and runes alone. Considering they cost around $500 each and have decent resale value, I'm banking on heroes being the real value grab in the ecosystem. They pay themselves off in about 3 weeks and gain XP / skills along the way. I assume having a max level character once the game is fleshed out will be a huge profit opportunity.
nhill Member	Fri Dec 24 09:53:14 That ignore all the other materials you can farm, which also equal about $15 a day at current prices. So theoretically you can pay off a hero in 10 days. I think the market is vastly underpricing them right now. Although it's a bit funny that it costs $500 to even start playing the game. I'm sure once they are further along they'll do a token split for $JEWEL to make it more affordable (or perhaps nerfed heroes than can be had for cheap or even free).
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Fri Dec 24 15:12:35 I have only glanced at the gaming part of DeFi Kingdoms, but definitely on the books. I got some free time now until the new year :) I did buy some more ONE yesterday as it brushed the upwards trending channel. I put it into the ETH-Jewel pair, I basically own no ETH (besides as gas fees on some chains) and compared to AVAX and MATIC, ETH was/is cheap.
nhill Member	Sat Dec 25 12:32:59 It's an interesting experiment. Really it's all about stat optimization, but you can tell they put a lot of thought into the long term economics (e.g. you can breed a gen1 hero like 8 times, but a gen 5 hero only a couple, so there's an increasing supply but also increasing level of scarcity at the same time). Gen0 heroes are going for like $50,000 now. I wasn't in the game back then, but hot damn. The special thing about gen0 heroes is they can breed an infinite number of times (but it gets more expensive each time). I don't expect the huge price appreciation on avalanche, as most of that is because the game was unknown when gen0 for Harmony was released. But I definitely want to get a Gen0 hero this time around, anyways! :)
nhill Member	Sat Dec 25 12:36:29 The other thing you can do with heroes is rent them out for breeding. Basically you can be a digital pimp, lol. It's a simple game with very few mechanics but it's elegantly designed how they all play into each other. Hopefully they can maintain this balance as more features are released.
nhill Member	Sat Dec 25 12:40:07 One thing I would suggest if you're going to buy a hero is to go ahead and get one that is optimal for your goals. Like a Forager with high dexterity and int, for example. The generic heroes at the floor keep losing value (the floor was 45 jewel last week, now it's 36), but the ones that have optimal stat balances are actually appreciating in value. My mistake when I started was scooping up rares and uncommons off the floor thinking they were cheap. Well, now they are cheaper. :) But the heroes where I put in the work and checked spreadsheets, etc. and got them well optimized for my use case have all increased in value. The cool part of play to earn is that you can see your strategies play out in the market in real time. =)
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Sun Dec 26 07:45:37 The basic mechanics seem simple enough, selecting the proper hero is the real work. Thinking about how to finance the hero. Probably plow more into the LP pairs as planed and use the earned Jewel.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Mon Dec 27 08:38:10 http://twitter.com/coinmamba/status/1475417339109818372 Well I'll be damned, here is something you don't see everyday, Andre Cronje promoting FTM. Hell has frozen over hasn't it?
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Mon Dec 27 08:38:57 It is visible on his twitter feed! That link didn't catch that.
nhill Member	Mon Dec 27 12:05:03 He's been involved in FTM since the early days. In fact, he's the one that kicked off the rally I road earlier in the year with this tweet: http://twi...ech/status/1432190805977051141 :D
nhill Member	Mon Dec 27 18:43:30 http://www.necc.io/ just launched recently. Leveraged trading on Aurora (NEAR eco) with OHM bonding. Neat protocol design. Fully doxxed and quality dev behind it. Still exploring, no position yet. Need to wait for volatility to settle.
OsamaIsDaWorstPresid Member	Tue Dec 28 02:16:10 cripto nerds rofl
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Tue Dec 28 06:46:36 Nhill Yes, but I have the impression that Andre has a "tough love" relationship towards FTM. http://www...andre_cronje_calling_fantom_a/ Don't get me wrong, I appreciate people like him a million times over hype men and moonboys.
Habebe Member	Tue Dec 28 08:08:13 Remember when I said I bet my life savings on blockbuster videos comeback? http://www...e-nft-dish-network-2021-12?amp
nhill Member	Tue Dec 28 11:54:03 Ah, ok :) Yeah I like Andre, too. He's got a great way of looking at the crypto ecosystem. Bidding $JEWEL here at $13.05 after selling a bag around $14.50 (dollar cost averaging two buys, this is the first. Will buy again around $10.70 if we get there.
nhill Member	Tue Dec 28 11:55:04 Bonded my $JEWEL is $LUNA. Bought the $LUNA at $84.
nhill Member	Tue Dec 28 11:55:20 w/ $LUNA I mean.
nhill Member	Tue Dec 28 11:55:42 Habebe. Now you can do it for real :D
nhill Member	Tue Dec 28 11:57:30 $LUNA looks like it's holding the market structure pretty well so far, but I wouldn't be surprised to see it tap $72-$76 for a real bullish entry.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Tue Dec 28 12:23:29 Sweet. I have yet to enter the full intended position, but am slowly buying as well. Staking all the earned Jewel to save up for a hero :) Astroport launched, so far so good, no disasters... yet anyway :D I only locked Luna-bLuna, didn't add any UST to the second phase. Sold the lock dropped astro at 2,4 UST, brought the UST over to Anchor for 19 % APY. Gonna wait for all the blood letting to be over, then buy Astro again.
nhill Member	Tue Dec 28 12:49:19 Nice moves! I’m accumulating $MAGIC-$gOHM LP on Arbitrum. Eventually they’ll let you stake it for $MAGIC (should be within a week), but, after selling off most my OHM exposure around $700, figure now is a good time to gather exposure. OHM still is the mack daddy in the space. Literally invented a whole new protocol tactic for liquidity and solved a huge problem in crypto (mercenary farmers). Unfortunately, they had the whole world in their hands and let some sloppy mistakes derail the project, but I have to think the market will bid OHM again after most the forks die a slow death.
nhill Member	Tue Dec 28 12:53:39 Speaking of forks, I also bidded some $VAL from the Vikings.finance project. It’s a proven team behind eleven.finance but their fork is under backing price at the moment. More or less free money if they don’t rug, which I highly doubt they’d do. Their roadmap has synergy with eleven, so it’s an under the radar play. But, as always, I expect about 7/10 small cap plays to go effectively to 0, and the 3/10 that don’t to more than make up for it with 10-100x gains. Never go full small cap ;)
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Tue Dec 28 15:09:59 "Never go full small cap ;)" Amen to that. "OHM still is the mack daddy in the space." Agreed. I have just let it be, because the gas fees just don't sense for me to trade in and out of it. OHM, TIME and Klima (my only 3), they have something going for them that makes them stand out. Though full disclosure I am rekt on Klima, iis a unique and innovative OHM fork. They participated in a webinar with the UN Blockchain Group on how block chain can help with climate change. Strong social sentiment factor together with an innovative product. Other than that I have to agree with you that the OHM forking has forked off a cliff, they don't really bring anything new compared to the three above mentioned. At one time I entertained the idea of owning the OHM forks over the native chain tokens, I don't believe that anymore. For instance, I rather own FTM, Tomb and Tshares (which I do), over Fantohm. Unless the ohm fork brings something new to the game, they and the DAO are just another layer of potential human errors, incompetence and outright scamming.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Tue Dec 28 15:11:39 Messed that sentence up: "Though full disclosure I am rekt on Klima, not irreversible, but -50%"
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Tue Dec 28 15:13:17 One thing I have noticed since a few weeks back is that ONE and FTM pump and dump pretty much in-synch. I figured they must be part of the same L1 rotation?
nhill Member	Tue Dec 28 15:13:27 You can buy and sell $gOHM on Trader Joe for little to no gas fees now. It's the new version of OHM from the admin key debacle and automatically rebases.
nhill Member	Tue Dec 28 15:14:43 But overall, yes, I agree with you. I'd rather use the native tokens and take profits into stables for now. Perhaps someday $gOHM will be the base pair for DeFi and would make more sense.
nhill Member	Tue Dec 28 15:17:30 "One thing I have noticed since a few weeks back is that ONE and FTM pump and dump pretty much in-synch. I figured they must be part of the same L1 rotation?" Yeah they are pretty much the same, EVM-compatible L1 w/ low market cap currently buoyed up by expensive marketing incentives. I think both are very much undervalued and continue to stand by FTM being $10 by the end of 2022.
nhill Member	Tue Dec 28 15:18:47 Harmony has had problems with their tech, mainly their RPC servers. And haven't fully implemented their white paper w/ sharding. So I think the market is pricing in some caution there, should the technical challenges prove impractical to surmount.
nhill Member	Tue Dec 28 15:21:00 http://tra...c9022F6a0bb5931Ac4c18F00?fm=fm $gOHM-$AVAX farm that looks tasty right now.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Tue Dec 28 15:29:15 "You can buy and sell $gOHM on Trader Joe for little to no gas fees now." This is sweet. I need a good exit price, because my OHM has kinda been stranded doing nothing but collecting more OHM lol :) About those incentive programs, what are your thought and speculations about what will happen when they end? Probably it will be the end of some functionally useless chains and protocols, weeding the chaff and all that, but for those that are useful.
nhill Member	Tue Dec 28 15:39:05 One thing I can predict easily is that the TVL of the incentivized chains decrease after the incentives are finished. The question is whether or not the incentives will ever go away. Perhaps they will continue to seek outside funding through OTC deals. I think nearly all the major L1 chains will live forever. That's the advantage of decentralization. I expect crypto to get more fragmented, not less, and for bridges to become the most critical infrastructure. Hence I hold some Synapse and AnySwap tokens.
nhill Member	Tue Dec 28 15:43:16 The digital vanguard that learns how to navigate the bridges gets rewarded. It's not uncommon for me to do a little arbitrage through some lesser known corridors of the cryptoverse. >:) I'd never post an arb opportunity, though, as it'd defeat the purpose. It's like commandeering ownership of a particular channel of crypto-- there can only be 1! But general tips are to look for bridged tokens that have access to the lesser known DEXes (e.g. MorpheusSwap) and set up alerts on price dislocations, then use a bridge to arb between the DEXes on different chains.
nhill Member	Tue Dec 28 15:45:40 In general, you can usually mine like $10,000-$50,000 before the arb opportunity ends up attracting more bots than your own (or yourself if you do it manually). Then the arb opportunity gets saturated pretty quickly.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Tue Dec 28 15:45:56 "and for bridges to become the most critical infrastructure." Hmm, really. Do you think it will be less overt of a process? I honestly don't fully understand the mechanics behind bridges, because I thought you were simply wrapping your token with a layer of code. But from what I understand these bridges need their own liquidity, so then it wasn't as simple as that. There isn't liquidity for every token, so you are limited by that and thus begins a fairly non intuitive and sometimes puzzling process to get to where you want to go.
nhill Member	Tue Dec 28 15:48:34 The fun part about arbs is that you are actually providing a service (keeping the price consistent across liquidity pools) while making delta-neutral profit. It's an alternative game where the risk profile is low, but the difficulty in finding and setting up the channel is high. Arb is one of the coolest ways to make money.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Tue Dec 28 15:51:00 "the arb opportunity ends up attracting more bots than your own" Is this the way forward then, arbitrage bots to create harmony? There was this one protocol (White Whale) on Terra, the aim is to allow you to participate and farm arbitrage.
nhill Member	Tue Dec 28 15:52:10 > Do you think it will be less overt of a process? Yes, I still am of the opinion that the user experience of crypto is what is holding it back. Eventually there'll be a bridge aggregator that will allow you to simply select a coin and bridge it to any other liquid coin on any chain. Then underneath the scenes it'll do the necessary trades and weird bridge flows like having to bridge $AVAX to Harmony One and selling it to $ONE. I'll make it myself if it doesn't show up before I wrap my current projects MVPs up.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Tue Dec 28 15:52:45 "Arb is one of the coolest ways to make money." I believe Sam Bankman-Fried started to make his fortune like this.
nhill Member	Tue Dec 28 15:56:47 > Is this the way forward then, arbitrage bots to create harmony? I think it's a natural consequence and will be more and more prevalent as we continue down the multi-chained future. Arb opportunities are going to multiply exponentially, but their difficulty to find is also going to increase at a linear rate.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Thu Dec 30 08:56:21 Nice call on NEAR btw :)
nhill Member	Thu Dec 30 11:29:25 Ty sir :) Up 70% on $NEAR, 61% on $MAGIC and 130% on $JEWEL. Bear market! What bear market? It's a rotating market right now :)
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Thu Dec 30 13:36:03 Done good with Jewel, so thanks for that one :) Did you catch this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gARBeNaN-fk Not sure how to evaluate all of it, but the initial reaction is that I need be more guarded, even with farms on protocols I am bullish on.
nhill Member	Thu Dec 30 15:30:58 I haven't watched the video yet, but will soon. Crypto definitely has a lot of shady projects and characters, mostly concentrated in the ripoff yield farms. One example: http://polypup.finance/ multi-level ponzi (but to its credit, it's an honest one at least). There's also a strategy that a lot of DEX token launch teams and mercenary capital follow: 1. Launch DEX and yield farm with your own $FARM token. 2. Make $FARM the base pair for all exchanges. 3. This allows the price of $FARM to appreciate as the liquidity is extremely low to start. But the buying itself creates more liquidity so it becomes easier to make large market sells over time and over time the price increases as capital gets set up for farming. 4. Once farming starts, everyone dumps their yield and the price crashes. But since there was so much liquidity built up for the farm rewards, the team itself can dump their issuance at that inflection point. ^you simply have to trust the team not to do that, as it's not always immediately clear which tokens are under the team's purview, and which were bought early as a result of insider information. Another reason why I'm bullish on more regulations, as these should be low hanging fruit to regulate away, especially with how trackable the blockchain is. There'll always be a cat and mouse game w/ Tornado cash and things of that ilk, but clear regulations that are executed as smart contracts would be game over. The DeFi sector would become unstoppable. But, as always, I'm more interested in the cryptoverse as a while. DeFi also serves as the infrastructure in the digital frontier, but there's much more to crypto than simply DeFi. The blockchain has an infinite amount of use cases as we migrate more and more paradigms into the cryptoverse!
nhill Member	Thu Dec 30 15:32:06 I'm more interested in the cryptoverse as a whole, that is.
nhill Member	Thu Dec 30 15:33:38 Bidding $nNECC here. Entry price: $3,121
nhill Member	Thu Dec 30 15:34:03 Also bidding $wsVAL Entry price: $86.76
nhill Member	Thu Dec 30 15:53:18 http://www.gasdao.org/ Airdrop if you spent over $1559 worth of gas on ETH. Actually a very cool concept, too. They are forming an energetic DAO based on Ethereum's most active users. Eventually the amount of $GAS you claim may pay for the gas you've spent. People are market buying a lot of $GAS that can afford it, as they want to be a part of the community. But those that can't afford it can just claim their airdrop and then sell it later. :) Soon they're going to release $GAS farming, where you are rewarded $GAS for burning $ETH gas. Just a really cool positive sum concept popping up again. All of a sudden the 5 figure sum spent on gas over the years has a chance of coming back to me in one form or another. :D
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Thu Dec 30 17:32:02 If you rather read than spend an hour on the video, here is the medium post that the guy on the show has written, which is basically the contents of the show. http://med...nd-mirrors-part-1-117c1f92e186 Has a little matrix with some different projects, ranging from outright scam to "not a hot dog". He has Bitconnec as a scam, Olympus dao as a ponzi. Yearn and and uniswap as legit projects. http://miro.medium.com/max/700/1*gPMfAEkOOwRB7Obtt8m71w.png It is always good to read some harsh critcism, keep you on your toes. The year is coming to end friend and it has been a crazy educating and profitable year :) What is your own prediction for the cryptoverse 2022?
nhill Member	Thu Dec 30 17:41:30 He's rather missing the point of DAOs like Olympus. They are essentially DeFi actively managed funds. They build up a treasury and manage it how they see fit. Yes, the APY is a function of people bonding/minting. But it's not solely dependent on that. It's actually tied to the balance of the treasury. If people stopped bonding/minting and growing the treasury, but the treasury's assets continue to increase in value, the APY is sustainable. But really, the APY doesn't even matter. It's all smoke and mirrors anyways. The only thing that matters is the RFV (risk-free value, or value of tokens other than their own). What you're doing when you buy an $OHM-fork is buying into the multiple on top of the RFV in its treasury. That's a very clear and easy way of looking at any OHM fork. You're investing in the team, whether that team is the devs, or, in some cases, a full DAO. It all happened and evolved organically, and you and I were here to witness it coalesce ;) Perhaps $OHM will become a reserve currency and be used for liquidity over stablecoins, or not. But it's clear that the true innovation here isn't a reserve currency, the innovations are sustainable protocol-owned liquidity and treasury management. Essentially a decentralized way of creating a crypto actively managed fund sans the accredited investor portion.
nhill Member	Thu Dec 30 17:42:22 Great criticisms to read, though, no hate on him! He brought up a lot of good points in general terms, but doesn't seem to have seen through to the more salient points.
nhill Member	Thu Dec 30 17:56:14 "The year is coming to end friend and it has been a crazy educating and profitable year :) What is your own prediction for the cryptoverse 2022?" Indeed! It was a whirlwind. Glad you came along for the ride. 2022: Multichain services and platforms outperform dApps designed for a single chain. Some examples there: $SUSHI $SYN $ANY $ICE But these are the first wave. Can't wait to see what people compose on top of and invent anew with multichain projects!
nhill Member	Thu Dec 30 17:59:03 I think L1s and L2s will reach somewhat of an equilibrium in price (depending on how inflationary they are), and multichain projects will start to command the majority of new liquidity being converted from fiat. Maxis of all chains will decline in relevance over the next year. And their membership ranks will dwindle.
nhill Member	Fri Dec 31 01:02:55 http://www.tradingview.com/x/h6eRkBTM This is how you keep making returns in a crab market. ;)
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Fri Dec 31 06:16:38 We are not playing the game on the same level fren :) but I am happy playing this game at 10-15% effectiveness. Some feedback for myself is that I realize I have been too slow and hesitating too much. I appreciate that value of "risk free" speculation on new projects. Taking profits more regularly, even if it is to hedge my own uncertainty and relative incompetence. I have also been too harsh on myself (it's in my nature), I forget that I only got out on the broader cryptoverse in September. Only 4 months. Expectations must be reasonable. Thanks for your feedback on the stuff I mentioned earlier.
nhill Member	Fri Dec 31 09:08:38 It's a small cap play...both my $WAIFU and $AKT plays have effectively gone to zero for me (they are both down like 80%, but I've cut my losses a while ago)...so we've seen how it plays out live. $JEWEL and $MAGIC gains (both doubled) are developing into big winners. I aim for around 30% success rate on small cap entries. There's usually a reason they have a small market cap, but if you can spot the diamonds in the rough, even spotting just 1 can balance out all the losses. The key is not getting frustrated and reflecting on the losers to try and avoid making similar mistakes in the future. My mistake with $WAIFU was assuming the Boba network would take off. It's a mostly abandoned L2 at this point. Eventually it'll catch a bid, I bet, but, for now, I bridged back to greener pastures.
nhill Member	Fri Dec 31 09:17:25 Speed is definitely a factor, too, as you noticed. Once you spot a potential gem you want to start bidding fairly quickly, as low liquidity can fuel premature rallies. I got smoked with $WAIFU there. Entered around 70 cents and the liquidity was super low. It spiked up to about $1.3 before ETH/BTC shit the bed and then it plummeted down to around 10 cents. I DCAed for a bit there until the liquidity dried up around 40 cents and I booked the ~40% loss. Tough to exit fully when caught in a small cap, too, which is another reason why I only use ~1% of capital. The art of the small cap. :) She's a fickle beast.
nhill Member	Fri Dec 31 14:20:25 Another strategy to keep in mind for the future: I didn't call it out here, but I bought $METIS a couple weeks ago. It's an up and coming L2. I actually found this one through debank. Just noticed they had it as an option, so I researched it and it looked undervalued. I bought 6 figures of it, around $20000 USTT (US Trash Tokens), and put it in into their DAC concept (decentralized autonomous company) and started mining with it. It was looking pretty topped out last night so I sold on the double top formation at around $260: http://www.tradingview.com/x/nIBRnwSt But the strategy I took this time was selling my initial sum to hold a risk free amount. So I sold $20,000 and started transferring it over to the stock market (where I do my actual investing...crypto I'm more of an active user than long term investor, and I peel off profits regularly). Since it more than tripled since my initial stake, I still have around $50,000 of risk-free $METIS in my DAC mining. This is one of my favorite brand of crypto strategies, as, at this point, I'll just let it ride and do its thing. Who knows, may move some in or out later, but there's not much to do on $METIS yet. Just thought I'd share the thought process here. Someday I'd like to go through these threads and aggregate everything we've shared and learned here, and turn it into a more digestible format (like a book or podcast).
nhill Member	Fri Dec 31 16:26:17 http://www.tradingview.com/x/NR8rHGBI $MAGIC TA. Looking for a retest of the last structure at ~$1.99. If it holds above, ~$3 looks likely. That would put it at around 1/4th the market cap of $JEWEL. $MAGIC has similar ambitions to DeFi Kingdoms long-term, to gamify the metaverse, but it's extremely early. No game yet, just the infrastructure and a good team behind it. Most of the pump been pumped here, but since it broke the ATH and is staying above, I think another leg up is probable.
nhill Member	Sat Jan 01 10:40:10 Well nvm. It just exploded to $3.30.
nhill Member	Sat Jan 01 10:40:49 +28% on $nNECC so far.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Sat Jan 01 11:24:20 "Someday I'd like to go through these threads and aggregate everything we've shared and learned here, and turn it into a more digestible format (like a book or podcast)" I can even write a testimonial :P Nice moves appreciate the thought process. I'm gonna sell the principle amount I put into FTM, it has grown out of control, thought I was gonna wait for another attempt at 3 USD, but it's too much now in one bag.
nhill Member	Sat Jan 01 11:40:35 Nim If you read any fundamental analysis for the start of the year, let it be this: http://blknoiz06.substack.com/p/quarter-i-2022 Insane amounts of alpha in this post.
nhill Member	Sat Jan 01 11:42:20 > I'm gonna sell the principle amount I put into FTM, it has grown out of control, thought I was gonna wait for another attempt at 3 USD, but it's too much now in one bag. It's about to pop again here IMO, but I agree that it's good to rebalance. Something like $ONE has more upside chart wise right now. $ONE has no resistance above it at the moment.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Sat Jan 01 11:51:08 I'll be damned if you are not correct, but FTM-TOMB had grown too big (30%), so it was painful on the way down for the entire portfolio and I promised myself, back when we were at 1 USD that I would do this. The principle was 3700 USD and the bag just hit 14k. So minus 4k, that still leaves a considerable amount in the pair. Probably too much from a risk management perspective still :P I put that MIM into yearn, already have too much on beefy and a little on tarot.
nhill Member	Sat Jan 01 11:59:32 Concentrated bets have the highest upside. There are times when I have a lot of conviction and laser focus my capital for a leg. But generally I like to stay very diversified, with most positions only being 1-5%. However, with $JEWEL recently I laser focused that bag to 60%. If you remember my last balance, imagine 60% of that going 2x. ;) So concentrated bets have their place for sure in this arena. They simply have to match your conviction level, which, for me, is a bit rare. $TOMB/$TSHARE and $JEWEL were the last two concentrated bets I made that multiplied my entire bag. I loaded up on $TSHAREs around $500.
nhill Member	Sat Jan 01 12:03:00 The only caveat I put there is that, even at the highest conviction level, I take profits very liberally on the way up and limit it to a few weeks at that concentration. There's just too much risk for a single project getting hacked, no matter the quality of devs or audits. It's what makes me invest in teams more than protocols now. I've been burned too much the past year focusing on the code and protocol design!
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Sat Jan 01 12:03:36 How much is your "concentrated bet" on FTM right now? I am still 22% in FTM-tomb additionally some in BOO, give or take I am 25% deep in the FTM ecosystem.
nhill Member	Sat Jan 01 12:04:30 As for investing a teams, the main reason is I want to invest in people that have a lot to lose. E.g. the vikings.finance project made by the eleven.finance team. They've built up a community and reputation already (same with $WAGMI on harmony, but I sacrificed that for $JEWEL at the moment).
nhill Member	Sat Jan 01 12:05:38 I only have one concentrated bet right now, and it's $JEWEL. But $FTM is in the LP and I hold some $FTM small caps. It's around 10% of my portfolio and my biggest position outside of $JEWEL.
nhill Member	Sat Jan 01 12:06:27 I sacrificed my $BOO position for $JEWEL a few weeks ago, but will be peeling back to it over time.
nhill Member	Sat Jan 01 12:08:22 My reasoning there was $BOO was my DEX exposure (along with some $RAY farmed from $4, but I don't bridge my SOL bags anymore, they are hands off), and, for multiple reasons, I felt that DeFi Kingdoms would be the more popular DEX in crypto. Turns out to have worked out so far, but everything waxes and wanes. I'm still concentrated into $JEWEL for now.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Sat Jan 01 12:12:50 Right, see I have not been playing the game right. Thing is I kinda went into this betting on protocols I was intending to hodl, but of course why not get interests and fees, at some point it became something else or hybrid, I still have a hard tim explaining it! But I did not adjust the game plan - take profit on a regular basis. Not having enough time and spreading that time on too many different parts of the crypto beast, and as we spoke, autocompunding lulls you into passiveness.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Sat Jan 01 12:38:40 So to qualify "the terrible mistake" that I just made :P I had a concentrated bet on FTM that I needed to wind down from massively degenerate to moderately degenerate. I can take solace in the fact that the position is now 100% risk free.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Sat Jan 01 12:52:08 How are you spread between tokens and stables right now?
nhill Member	Sat Jan 01 17:17:31 It's all a learning experience. As long as you don't blow your crypto with leverage, you should be golden long term. ;) I'm about 10% stables right now, and most of that is paired with $JEWEL in the USDC LP, and the rest is farming on Curve (30% APR in $ONE on harmony curve).
nhill Member	Sat Jan 01 19:58:31 Taking a stake in the $CRV wars today. :)
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Sun Jan 02 09:15:32 CRV wars?
nhill Member	Sun Jan 02 12:01:03 Oh I thought that was covered in the post above, but apparently not. Basically the $CRV emissions are decreasing but the demand is increasing. $CRV is the best alternative to an OHM like protocol design to maintain liquidity without diluting your own token, but in order to do so you have to vote with $CRV to schedule the emissions to go to your factory. So 2022 is going to be crazy, as the emissions decrease but all the protocols keep trying to load up on $CRV to vote for their factory's emissions. We can take advantage of this incoming demand by holding $CRV. I bought some on FTM and lent it out in a Tarot vault for 22% APR with no IL, and also entered the FTM-CRV pool on SpookySwap (to build up my $BOO position again over time). They have entire protocols dedicated to the curve wars, such as Convex finance that wraps up all the incentives into their CVX token, which gives you the advantages of locking $CRV but maintains your liquidity.
nhill Member	Sun Jan 02 12:03:12 Entering $CRV today as it looks like it's retesting its all time high and about to explode if it successfully retests. Either way, there's going to be too much buying pressure on $CRV over time for it to be a bad allocation, as the protocols war against each other by locking up as many $CRV tokens as they can.
nhill Member	Sun Jan 02 12:06:49 Airdrop announcement for $JEWEL from last night. Looks like $JEWEL is going parabolic! "# Airdrops for xJEWEL Holders The Bank has historically been the best way to qualify for Airdrops, and that isn't changing. We are allocating 600k CRYSTAL to be awarded to xJEWEL holders according to their average holdings between Jan 3, 2022 and Jan 24, 2022. In addition, we will be giving away 25 Shiny Crystalvale Gen 0 Heroes in a raffle for these xJEWEL holders. Players will receive 1 entry for 100 xJEWELs, and 2 additional entries for every additional 100 xJEWELs, according to their average xJEWEL holdings between Jan 3, 2022 and Jan 24, 2022. # Airdrops for Hero Owners Hero owners rejoice! We will be airdropping CRYSTALs to Hero owners shortly after the launch of Crystalvale according to the following schedule: Common - 1 CRYSTAL Uncommon - 2 CRYSTAL Rare - 4 CRYSTAL Legendary - 8 CRYSTAL Mythic - 16 CRYSTAL We will be taking a snapshot on Jan 21, 2022 for this. # Airdrops for Hero Summoners Each new Hero summoned from Jan 1, 2022 until Jan 21st, 2022 (EST) will result in 1 raffle entry for the summoner (player) to win a Shiny Gen 0 Crystalvale Hero Crystal. There will be 10 drawings for a total of 10 Gen 0s. # Airdrops for Bridged JEWEL holders on Avalanche Holders of Bridged Avalanche JEWELs will receive a collective 100k CRYSTAL tokens shortly after the launch of Crystalvale, according to their average Avalanche JEWEL holdings between Jan 3, 2022 and Jan 24, 2022. # Airdrops for JEWEL LP holders in the Serendale Gardens Staking just became even more rewarding! We’ve gotten many requests to include JEWEL LP stakers in some Crystalvale Airdrops. As such, we will be airdropping a collective 300k CRYSTAL tokens to our liquidity providers who have staked in our gardens, according to their average staked LP holdings between Jan 3, 2022 and Jan 31, 2022."
nhill Member	Sun Jan 02 12:37:20 Looks like the best place to get the airdrop is bridging $JEWEL to Avalanche. You'll give up the small APR from the $xJEWEL bank, but there's currently 10 million worth of $JEWEL on Avalanche, and a 286 million in the bank. The bank gets 6X more $CRYSTAL than avalanche, but has 28X more dilution. So, as things stand, you can make 4X more $CRYSTAL by bridging to Avalanche. I assume many others are doing similar maths, and this opportunity will probably bet diluted over time. But, for now, it's the best bet if you want $CRYSTAL! Hard to know what the market value will be for $CRYSTAL, but it has half the total supply of $JEWEL, I think, so it'll probably be more valuable, especially since the circulating supply will start out so low.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Sun Jan 02 12:40:31 I heard about the airdrops. I bridged over FTM yesterday and managed to buy some more :) Been saving jewel in the bank. About CRV, it has come and gone off my radar. How big are you going? As you know, I have some extra liquidity lying around now :P
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