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Utopia Talk / Politics / millions of starving children will die..
earthpig
GTFO HOer
Sun Mar 27 03:31:38
2 of the top 5 wheat producing countries are cut off from global markets.

It'll take a while for it to permutate, but that means we're a little ways from a global food crisis.

Rice is viable substitute good for wheat. The rice producing countries will have their slice of the global food profits pie increased. Many of these places are authoritarian.

Food insecurity is a top cause of civil wars and revolutions. A really good straw to break a camel's back, for example as it was in Libya and Syria not too long ago, or a thousand other examples.

The rice producing authoritarian places may be able to consolidate power with bread and circuses, the places that do not produce food will not do so well. Places that don't produce food or oil are in for a rough patch, in particular.

...Am I wrong?
earthpig
GTFO HOer
Sun Mar 27 03:32:15
Are there any good rice stocks/ETFs I should look at?
Habebe
Member
Sun Mar 27 03:36:08
This is how they will get you to eat the bugs.
Habebe
Member
Sun Mar 27 03:37:03
"Food insecurity is a top cause of civil wars and revolutions. "

Were always 4 meals away from chaos.
Habebe
Member
Sun Mar 27 03:48:44
This whole thing could work out great for the US.

We will sell shitloads more LNG, we produce a shitloads of food.Our food system is literally built for times like this, obviously it wasn't built for health.
jergul
large member
Sun Mar 27 06:33:42
EP
Natural gas is one of the main input factors for fertilizer. So not wrong, you are missing stuff.

Habebe
Prepared to deal with 7 dollar gallon gasoline?
murder
Member
Sun Mar 27 08:50:20

"Prepared to deal with 7 dollar gallon gasoline?"

Gasoline price is self correcting if we allow it to be.

earthpig
GTFO HOer
Sun Mar 27 20:38:33
Yup my hybrid will prob go up in value. Again.
Habebe
Member
Sun Mar 27 20:46:10
Hybrids are like Poland, they shouldn't exist.
kargen
Member
Mon Mar 28 00:51:54
Even after the shortage ends prices for food will remain high. Grain is a commodity and farmers are locking future wheat in at these prices.
I'm guessing the wheat shortage will not last long. Farmers rotate crops and with the way the wheat market is they are probably going to plant wheat on land that might otherwise be used for some other crop. Around here I'm expecting to see less sunflower fields.
Habebe
Member
Mon Mar 28 05:06:49
I paid 0.85 for a bag of baby carrots (1lb) today, I normally pay 0.58-0.62.

Fuck you Joe Biden! I needs my carrots someone told me a long time ago carrots and fresh water will cure everything, plus they go in almost any dinner.
Seb
Member
Mon Mar 28 05:47:45
Earthpig:

20/21 Russian grain exports were 49mt, Ukraine 64.6m

Global poroduction was 2.75bn.

So Russian and Ukrainian exports are less than 5% of global supply, combined.

Of course that doesn't mean there's definitely no problems, but some of the reporting of this as being potential for famine is somewhat over egged.
Paramount
Member
Mon Mar 28 05:52:31
Are you saying that media are lying?
earthpig
GTFO HOer
Mon Mar 28 11:08:23
"
So Russian and Ukrainian exports are less than 5% of global supply, combined.
"

At a glance, it looks like Russia's oil production is 10% of global supply. So in the same relative ballpark.

The thing about "just in time shipping" and warehouse practices is that it seems to make the system very non-resilient. Everything has to go almost perfect, or you get a "supply chain shock."

I guess a positive thing is that a country can transition to making their own food easier than to making their own oil. Assuming they are planning ahead. Assuming such planning does not get called "socialism" or whatever. Assuming the World Bank, IMF, Chinese upstart equivalent, etc, doesn't step in and say "you can't subsidize that industry to anticipate a problem or we're going to deny you access to $, you just have to put your head in the sand" and then later when the obvious preventable problem pops up declare that "austerity" (letting people starve) is the only solution.

Assuming.
earthpig
GTFO HOer
Mon Mar 28 11:11:03
"At a glance, it looks like Russia's oil production is 10% of global supply. So in the same relative ballpark."

I guess I didn't connect them. The reason this is relevant is because the relationship isn't anything remotely linear. The "price at the pump" has gone up significantly beyond 10%. So there's no rule or law saying that price hikes stop at 5% just because Russia/Ukraine "only" produce 5%.
swordtail
Anarchist Prime
Mon Mar 28 11:56:37
-millions of starving children will die..-

madeleine albright says it's okay.

Seb
Member
Mon Mar 28 13:02:59
Earthpig:

Effects at the margin can cause price spikes, yes. Question is whether grain is as inelastic as oil.
jergul
large member
Mon Mar 28 13:50:23
Fertilizer production price and volume is an incredibly important factor. The question is not if countries can expand production, it's if they can stop production from falling.

The political costs of starvation is too high to not expect extreme prices on the export market. Which in turn sets prices on the domestic market.

This all spills over to dairy and meat production too of course.

Sam Adams
Member
Mon Mar 28 14:51:17
I can still buy 20 days worth of rice for 6 minutes of my labor. Not all that worried about this.
Sam Adams
Member
Mon Mar 28 14:52:03
Raw staples still look very cheap compared with their historical means.
kargen
Member
Mon Mar 28 19:55:16
"20/21 Russian grain exports were 49mt, Ukraine 64.6m

Global poroduction was 2.75bn."


Now take a look at wheat specifically. THe number jumps to 30%. And again there might not be a shortage but there is going to be a noticeable and not insignificant price increase in many types of food.
jergul
large member
Mon Mar 28 20:09:12
There is going to be a shortage. Not in sense that global stockpiles of wheat will empty, but that they will be unevenly distributed and countries will hoard to some extent.

Average prices will trend towards the max price of the last bushel sold as traders will tend to hold out for an even better price a bit later.
kargen
Member
Mon Mar 28 21:04:00
China finally doing their part to help with fuel prices.

"Oil prices slid as the coronavirus lockdown in Shanghai fueled worries about weak demand."
murder
Member
Wed Mar 30 08:27:19

Feed them microbes.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n752-LVeZo0

Yum!

Y2A
Member
Wed Mar 30 17:39:49
a global holdomor
williamthebastard
Member
Sat Apr 02 09:15:34
If the Ukraines keep this veangeful lust up to be part of the West, as they likely will, that country should turn out to be a great place to invest once things calm down a bit. And its capitalising on something positive rather than something negative.
jergul
large member
Sat Apr 02 10:01:52
William
You are going to cure rampant corruption how?

http://gyazo.com/07fddbbaa0fbcfea2007b7c265a80357
Pillz
Member
Sat Apr 02 11:59:44
Lol@wtb
earthpig
GTFO HOer
Sun Apr 10 22:53:43
That happened fast.
murder
Member
Mon Apr 11 06:17:15

What happened fast?

earthpig
GTFO HOer
Mon Apr 11 12:53:40
http://www...litical-instability/index.html

I credit the author for mentioning Arab Spring.

2008 Recession happened to coincide with a draught in the middle east. There's always a drought somewhere, to be sure.

So you had draught + economic turmoil.

Then food insecurity.

Then civil wars and revolutions and all that. ISIS. Worse where there was a drought. In the US, OWS and Tea Party, ultimately Trump. Direct linear and causal results of the 2008 crash, fortunately Western food insecurity was overall pretty minimal.

The economic turmoil => political turmoil is pretty straight forward, the drought is the kicker, the force multiplier, or the 'kicker,' if you will.

So we thought it'd be a good idea to shut down the global economy in 2020... whelp, there's always a drought somewhere.

May as well say it here. It may very well be the case that progressive forces were wrong. One of the first things I said to my wife in March 2020 was "but recessions kill people, too."

The people about to die are going to skew younger than those that would otherwise have died of COVID-19 had we kept the global economy open. In terms of person-years of lives saved, it's not at all obvious to me at this point that the shelter in place stuff actually saved more person-years of life than allowing the virus to do it's thing with only voluntary / optional mitigation efforts.

I guess the two breadbaskets of Europe being cut off may be functionally more or less similar to a drought.
murder
Member
Sun May 29 20:39:55
*kick*
nhill
Member
Sun May 29 20:53:18
You get a gold star today
earthpig
GTFO HOer
Mon May 30 01:29:06
I'd rather not have that gold star in this case, because of what it represents, but thanks.

There will be more civil unrest, perhaps more wars (as a good way to avoid the civil unrest), some coups, famines, lots of deaths.

And no one but "crazy people" will believe it tied to the global response to COVID-19.

We're not close to done, we're getting started.

Here we go.
nhill
Member
Mon May 30 02:05:12
The gold star was for murder finding the thread AND for you in sharing the information. You guys can split it. ;)

But yeah this is just warming up. The fertilizer prices are going to have a wider effect than the wheat. Maybe not as extreme of effect, but wider surface area (global and all crops). Some of the farmers around here opted out of planting this year because they couldn't stomach the costs.

Of course, like the people leaving Cali, they weren't the cream of the crop, and clearly weren't hedged against the spike in costs.

It'll take a while for it all to come to a head, unfortunately. A perfect storm.
nhill
Member
Mon May 30 02:06:39
I should say they opted out of planting their least desirable plots, not like they halted all operations.

But it's a death by a thousand cuts.
Habebe
Member
Mon May 30 02:30:28
"The gold star was for murder finding the thread AND for you in sharing the information. "

I'm asserting my white privelege and claiming murders gold star. Thems the rules written on the UP charter, carved in stone, written in the blood of a thousand thousand peasants, chissled in with ablood chissled forged in the fires of MT. Doom near where I get goats milk.......of the DAMNED, next to Caldor in the corners shopping mall.
jergul
large member
Mon May 30 03:40:50
I am happy with my early analysis. It still holds true.

Though strike Ukraine as a food exporter in the greater scheme of things. War harvest losses are predicted to be higher that its normal export numbers.

What Ukraine exports now will have to be imported come winter.
Habebe
Member
Mon May 30 06:08:24
I heard They are seriously discussing peace by leaving the borders where they are currently.
jergul
large member
Mon May 30 06:14:12
I doubt there will even be serious ceasefire and peace talks before the winter cold sets in and the true costs of war sinks in.
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Mon May 30 06:19:46
Everything is proceeding as I have foreseen.
-Emperor Palpatine
jergul
large member
Mon May 30 06:22:13
If aimed at my, then why thank you!
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Mon May 30 08:08:42
I see how that would be a reasonable reading. Well it’s not directed at you as some project manager of evil, I just hear that voice when bad things happen according to “plan”.
Dukhat
Member
Mon May 30 09:17:28
Bill gates with all that precious farmland he bought up right now:

https://tinyurl.com/2dskyrjz
Dukhat
Member
Mon May 30 09:17:33
http://tinyurl.com/2dskyrjz
Habebe
Member
Mon May 30 09:24:52
Yeah, he is a creepy fuck.
jergul
large member
Mon May 30 10:02:13
Awww, but I wanted an upgrade from white helmet number 3 reporting bad news to the grand EP himself.

It may not have been reasonable, but hope springs eternal.

============

It is actually a fundamental thing. Nothing much can be done if we play it through to the end and consider the conscequences properely.

Help Ukraine avert the worst from the conflict? Sure. It needs about 500 diesel locomotive engines that run on its rail gauge.
murder
Member
Mon May 30 11:34:36

"I'm asserting my white privelege and claiming murders gold star."

For some reason I thought you were middle eastern.

murder
Member
Mon May 30 11:39:28

"But yeah this is just warming up. The fertilizer prices are going to have a wider effect than the wheat. Maybe not as extreme of effect, but wider surface area (global and all crops). Some of the farmers around here opted out of planting this year because they couldn't stomach the costs."

How in the ever loving fuck was this not covered by all the covid funds?

earthpig
GTFO HOer
Thu Jun 02 17:15:17
African Union chief will hold talks with Putin on Friday over food security

6 hr 16 min ago

Senegalese President Macky Sall, who is also the head of the African Union, is set to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin in the Black Sea resort city of Sochi on Friday to discuss the "liberation of the stocks of grain and fertilizers," Sall's office said Thursday.

Sall is traveling to Russia as "the blockage of [grain and fertilizer exports] particularly affects African countries," his office added. The talks were also set to center on the African Union's efforts "to contribute to the lull of the war in Ukraine."

The Kremlin said that Sall and Putin would discuss Russia's interaction with the African Union, "including the expansion of political dialogue and economic and humanitarian cooperation."

On Friday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that 22 million tons of grain, accounting for nearly half of Ukraine's grain export supply, was being held up by Russia's blockade of the main export routes through the Black Sea and Azov Sea.

The Kremlin has repeatedly rejected the accusations that it has blocked grain supplies from Ukraine and has accused the West of actions that have led to this crisis.
earthpig
GTFO HOer
Mon Jun 06 12:12:16
@Jergul, your fertilizer prediction is starting to be more widely noted.

CNN

Putin blames the West for international food and energy crisis

Russian President Vladimir Putin reiterated that Moscow’s actions have nothing to do with the looming energy and food crisis in the world and again blamed economic and financial policies of the West for creating such a scenario.

Current and former energy officials tell CNN they worry that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in the wake of years of underinvestment in the energy sector have sent the world careening into a crisis that will rival, or even exceed, the oil crises of the 1970s and early 1980s.

US President Joe Biden has blamed Russia's invasion for domestic price hikes and global food supply shortages.

In an interview with state TV channel Rossiya-1, conducted Friday and aired in full Sunday, the Russian leader blamed the United States for "injecting large sums of money" into its economy as a means of combating the consequences of the coronavirus pandemic, which led to inflation and an "unfavorable situation in the food market, because first of all, food prices went up."

Putin also blamed "the short-sighted policy of European countries, and above all the European Commission, in the energy sector" as another reason for the crisis in food and energy market.

“Among other things, the Europeans did not listen to our urgent requests to preserve long-term contracts for the supply of the same natural gas to European countries, and they also began to (terminate the contracts) … This had a negative impact on the European energy market: Prices crept up. Russia has absolutely nothing to do with it," he said.

As soon as gas prices went up, fertilizer prices "immediately increased, because some of these fertilizers are produced, including at the expense of gas. Everything is interconnected," Putin added.

"But we warned about this, and this has nothing to do with any military operation of Russia," Putin said.

The Kremlin said last week that Moscow is ready to make a “significant contribution” to avoid the food crisis through the export of grain and fertilizers, if the West lifts “politically motivated restrictions” on Russia.
Habebe
Member
Mon Jun 06 12:18:14
Really though, the West's *reaction* to Russia's invasion is hampering the economic/food issues.

He isn't wrong. Russia would gladly sell more petroll and fert supplies.
Sam Adams
Member
Mon Jun 06 12:21:13
"Russian President Vladimir Putin reiterated that Moscow’s actions have nothing to do with the looming energy and food crisis in the world"

Lol what a fucking retard. We should nuke him on general principles at this point.
murder
Member
Mon Jun 06 15:29:54

"Really though, the West's *reaction* to Russia's invasion is hampering the economic/food issues."

Which Rossiya-1 said that?

murder
Member
Mon Jun 06 15:30:32

"Really though, the West's *reaction* to Russia's invasion is hampering the economic/food issues."

Which Rossiya-1 anchor said that?

earthpig
GTFO HOer
Mon Jun 20 14:26:58
Africa has been "taken hostage" by Russia’s war against Ukraine, Zelensky says


Addressing the African Union Commission via video link on Monday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Africa has been “taken hostage by those who started the war against our country.”

Zelensky warned the global food crisis will continue “as long as this colonizing war goes on,” affecting the lives of as many as 400 million people all over the world who depend on Ukrainian exports.

“Our main task right now is to eliminate the threat of famine. In the 21st century this threat simply cannot be, thanks to Ukraine and thanks to our agrarian industry,” he said.

“If it wasn’t for the Russia’s war, you would be in a different situation right now – in a totally secure situation. Therefore, to avoid famine, the attempts of countries like Russia to return the colonial policy of landgrabs has to come to an end,” Zelensky said.

According to Zelensky, Ukraine is attempting to build new supply logistics, but 25 million tonnes of grain still remain on hold as Russia continues to block Ukrainian ports.

More background: Russia's war in Ukraine could push up to 49 million people into famine or famine-like conditions because of its devastating impact on global food supply and prices, the United Nations has said.

With its fertile soil and sprawling agricultural lands, Ukraine has long been described as one of the world's breadbaskets. But Russia's unprovoked assault is now putting a huge strain on Ukraine's food production and exports. The ripple effects are being felt around the world.

Russia's blockade of Ukrainian ports has already raised global food prices and threatens to cause a catastrophic food shortage in parts of the world, the UN said.

The Russian invasion has affected Ukraine's entire food production and supply chain: From sowing to harvesting to exports. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) estimates that between 20% and 30% of Ukraine's agricultural land will remain either unplanted or unharvested this year because of the war.

With regards to food that is already harvested, Ukrainian authorities, and some international officials, have accused Russia of robbing the country of grain and other commodities in areas it occupies.
jergul
large member
Mon Jun 20 14:34:38
Kind of a mixed message there. Russia is either starving the world or stealing Ukrainian grain and sending it to the world. Not both.

But it is the same kind of mixed message that will evolve when this fall's crop of African refugees drown in the Med as Ukrainians continue to enjoy free and unfettered access to Europe.

In sum. Nice try, but I don't think more of the world will sign up on the Western perspective than already has. There are simply too many irregularities. I can list more if you like.

Where are the world bank loans for Sri Lanka to help it dispell unrest by purchasing food and fuel on the global market?

You think Russia is being blamed for that, or the West?
earthpig
GTFO HOer
Mon Jun 20 15:39:55
The Western form of foreign aid is "lend bigger sum of money in exchange for domestic policy concessions."

The Russian and Chinese version of foreign aid is still (correct me if I'm wrong here) "give smaller amount of money in exchange for foreign policy concessions."

I agree with you; I don't think the pending famine will fundamentally alter the decision making tree on who to take money from. Both have pros/cons.
Habebe
Member
Mon Jun 20 16:31:23
EP, Not to correct you, because Inthink its accurate, but I will ammend it.

China is also big for using large infrastructure investment, and then not just FP concessions but economic control of said infrastructure while favoring chinese companies.
jergul
large member
Mon Jun 20 16:47:11
EP
Lack of funding will cause localized famine. Otherwise, this would just boil down to more expensive beef as some grain was diverted from animal to human consumption.

Total grain production globally is 2200 million tons. 20 million tons give or take from ukraine is a game changer only in terms of costs.
jergul
large member
Mon Jun 20 16:49:48
My point is mostly that Ukraine cannot win a propaganda war in developing countries because of how blatantly privileged it is as a reciever of Western aid.

Ukraine cannot both be part of Europe and expect solidarity from the developing world.
Habebe
Member
Mon Jun 20 16:52:25
Now as for food policies, Biden just doubled down on a doozey.

Racing ethanol from 10% to 15% in gasoline.

Ethanol has no real benefits. It looks cheaper because it's subsidized.

You get less mileage out of Indian gasoline.

It costs more energy to make than it is worth.

Its production makes it worse than gas for carbon emissions.

And we already use 40% of our corn fields devoted to it at 10% levels.While we're about to face food shortages, we shouldn't be wasting MORE cultivatable land on ethanol, this will likley also raise animal feed costs which makes animal food products like meat, eggs and milk etc. Cost more.


All around terrible policy. It doesn't even build in usable* redundancy in US agriculture. If anything this is the time bank on getting rid of ethanol subsidies and haven farmers grow more food.
Habebe
Member
Mon Jun 20 16:53:57
Oh and I forgot to mention how ethanol destroys gasoline cars. Especially anything the fuel touches. Rubber gaskets, hoses, carbs, fuel pumps etc.
Habebe
Member
Mon Jun 20 16:56:40
Also, yes, Trump made dumb decisions on that as well.
earthpig
GTFO HOer
Mon Jun 20 17:21:48
Wait a minute. Ethanol is from massively subsidized corn as you observe. That means more gov't subsidies (more money printed), and without any increased taxes (taking money back OUT of the economy, un-printing what was previously printed is basically all taxes are these days) to offset the money printing, that means MORE inflation, and MORE money supply, not less.

It also means that corn for human consumption will get more expensive. While we enter a food crisis.

God damn "gas pump politics" is retarded. If you want to pay less for gas, buy a more fuel efficient car, stop trying to vote for it, like magic printed money doesn't have an accompanying cost somewhere else, damned carfare queens.
earthpig
GTFO HOer
Mon Jun 20 17:30:23
Are we going to be doing less of the whole "we will pay you not to grow corn" thing? Because that would overall be a positive thing if it's a package deal. We need more growing of things we can eat right now, the world does.
Habebe
Member
Mon Jun 20 17:36:40
Wow, my typing was worse than usual. Indian gas is ethanol. Raising not racing.


EP, We agree. The issue stems from farming lobbying groups who wanted a hand out.

Honestly, we would be better off just writing them checks for nothing.

Trump caved to the farm lobby as well because he was costing them $ with the trade war. This is bipartisan buffoonery.

Habebe
Member
Mon Jun 20 17:56:20
When I said it costs more than it is worth, I meant energy wise, it literally takes more Jules than it stores.

We need a whole farming subsidy overhaul really.

Im totally fine with government ensuring the US can always grow its own food. IMO thats clearly a national security priority that efficient free markets dont take into account.

We just do it wrong with ethanol. Which even for ethanol production, corn is a terrible choice, switchgear is the preffered crop IIRC.

I think they would do better to end the ethanol hand out. Pay them to grow other crops. It could reduce animal feed costs as well as meet human food needs in the near future with an almost certain food crisis.

murder
Member
Mon Jun 20 21:55:22

"That's awful! I wish there was someone who could do something to end this." -- Joe Biden


murder
Member
Mon Jun 20 22:19:53

"If you want to pay less for gas, buy a more fuel efficient car, stop trying to vote for it, like magic printed money doesn't have an accompanying cost somewhere else, damned carfare queens."

It is 2022. Why are there still personal vehicles available for sale that get < 30 mpg?

Dukhat
Member
Mon Jun 20 23:04:44
All the best-selling vehicles in America are trucks that get like 20mpg. My deadbeat cousin fixes phones, lives in a trailer park, and drives an f250. It’s some macho thing,
murder
Member
Mon Jun 20 23:17:22

Solution: Don't allow them to be sold.

earthpig
GTFO HOer
Tue Jun 21 02:56:49
In Finland, you have to have a biz license to get vehicles with fuel efficiency below a certain level and/or diesel.
murder
Member
Tue Jun 21 03:05:06

That's what I was thinking. Just have to make sure they aren't being used as personal vehicles.

Habebe
Member
Tue Jun 21 03:06:36
Now your just talking crazy.
Habebe
Member
Tue Jun 21 03:08:07
Many people drive pickups for what they are neant for....hauling shit.

I've always wanted a box truck, like an old Uhaul.
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Tue Jun 21 03:27:09
Well it is unedniable that pick up trucks look really nice, spacous and manly. My reneckification is an on going process. SO I think future cars will be Audi R4 and a Cybertruck.

You can go fuck yourselves with you Priuses and fuel efficient cars, I am going to have an R4.
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Tue Jun 21 03:29:02
redneckification*

and also

Audi RS4* I still have a family so it needs to be a station wagon.
Dukhat
Member
Tue Jun 21 10:54:50
I outrace my cousin in my hybrid. EV's have better torque and handling characteristics than any ICE car as long as they are not purposefully gimped.

Toyota gimped their Prius line so everyone thinks Priuses are lame and slow boxes.

In actuality, take away the hidden algorithm that makes a Prius go from 0 to 60 in 14 seconds in order to add 2 MPG, and you get a fuel-efficient car that goes from 0 to 60 incredibly fast. The Rav4 Hybrid has the 2nd best 0-60 time of any Toyota, beaten only by the supra which has to get like 10 MPG of fuel injection to beat it.

My main property is Redneckistan Texas. Dumbass rednecks always have their jaws drop when my EV regularly passes their brand new Trucks and SUV's.


jergul
large member
Tue Jun 21 11:18:18
Well, of course. Electric engines have 90% effeciency compared to mid 40s for combustion. Far superior.

The problem is and remains energy density for the fuel component.
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