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Utopia Talk / Politics / Investment corner 2.0
Habebe
Member
Fri May 20 01:12:56
Yadda yadda

Germans houses habe no countertops, weirdos.
nhill
Member
Fri May 20 10:28:59
Looks dumpy today.

Btw major props to Nimatzo for spotting the bear market before me and most everyone else. Impressive call, I think it was late November when he first brought it up. Credit where credit due!

It’s hard to say when the market becomes a buy. The easiest indicator would be about a week after they raise rates for the final time this round, as that would fully deleverage the system. By the prime buying opportunity will probably come way earlier, market usually front runs the obvious play.

I’m targeting July/August for my prediction currently as the market bottom.

But we’ll certainly get bounces along the way. Bear markets see bounces up to +5-10% which tends to trap retail into FOMO while smart money exits or takes a short opportunity.
earthpig
GTFO HOer
Fri May 20 10:35:20
"As for the SPAC, the reasons companies go public through SPACs is to avoid being subject to the due diligence of a company going public.

Many backroom deals and poison pills have been snuck through SPACs which results in the underwriters dumping the stock to profit heavily at the expense of the market."

All the mortgage IPOs were in Q4 2020 or Q1 2021, mostly via SPAC. I think it was more for timing than lax underwriting, though of course lax underwriting makes the timing part easier.


Rocket Mortgage $25 to $8

UWM $9 to $4

Homepoint $11 to $3.75

LoanDepot went public at $30, is now $2.65

Guild

Finance of America

Amerihome

And so on, and so on. A few of them missed the boat, they didn't get the SPAC shit done in time, so they just didn't go public, because if you can't rip off a bunch of investors who are focused on the most recent quarterly P&L, why go public? A lot of these are 30, 40, etc, year old companies that had never previously expressed any interest at all in going public.

Literally everyone knew that the industry was running at 3x normal profit margins (between higher per loan margins [rates SHOULD have dropped to about 1.75%, but consumer-facing rates only dropped to like 2.625%], and a higher number of loans [mostly refi]) as a temporary measure due to the fed money printers, and that it was 100% guaranteed to be temporary, but I don't think a single prospectus said "we are temporarily running at 3x the normal profit margin and this is 100% guaranteed to be temporary." Instead, they (after the obligatory disclaimer) projected the current recent couple quarters forward, and said "follow this line and pay this much per share because of it."

Was this a crime?

http://www...s-over-disclosures-2021-06-30/
nhill
Member
Fri May 20 11:18:02
> I think it was more for timing than lax underwriting, though of course lax underwriting makes the timing part easier.

As you pointed out, these are two in the same...the lax underwriting is how they get to market quicker.

Nowhere did I mean to suggest every SPAC has backroom deals and poison pills, but, due to the lax regulations (which are now changing because of precisely what I'm talking about).

SPACs are dead in the water right now. SEC has their sights on them and $SOUN might be one of the last few.

IMO I'd avoid them altogether in these conditions.
nhill
Member
Fri May 20 11:19:00
But again, fortune favors the bold. I'm sure a lot of people are like me and avoid buying SPACs, which might be why they are a good buy if you can find a legitimate one.
nhill
Member
Fri May 20 11:19:53
Nowhere did I mean to suggest every SPAC has backroom deals and poison pills, but, due to the lax regulations (which are now changing because of precisely what I'm talking about) they often do.

^last part of my sentence got cut off
Habebe
Member
Fri May 20 22:05:11
I should have went with what I know. Ive spoken numerous times about my love of the Legacy of Kain series and Gothic series to a lesser extent. Some Swedish company bought the rights to both, as well as Tomb Raider and some game called theif that seems familiar.

Up 20%+, ot came up in my.feed because of LoK and nor investments...lol
Habebe
Member
Fri May 20 22:09:16
I'm not buying in now. LoK is almost a cursed series that never quite works out, it still ended confusing and unresolved.

If they are good they have a goldmine at their disposal.

The Gothic guys have been releasing the same game under differemt names for 30 years. Its a good game notoriously glitchy as fuck and tediously difficult, but they leave enough exploits tonget around that.
nhill
Member
Sat May 21 12:43:56
I have no idea what you are talking about here
Habebe
Member
Sat May 21 16:03:35
german and I think canadian rpg game series.
Habebe
Member
Tue May 24 13:22:39
$SOUN up about a dollar (to 5.50) from when I bought @ 4.55.

I definitely mase the mistake of thinking TSLA wouldn't plummet as much as it did though.
nhill
Member
Tue May 24 13:24:49
Win some, lose some. Make your wins bigger than your losses and a 50/50 success rate is enough to succeed :)

Grats on $SOUN, hope it keeps going. Stocks have been due for a bounce for a while, but I fear it'll be a dead cat.
Habebe
Member
Tue May 24 14:29:48
Nhill, Yeah, I'm debating pulling out of SOUN.

I madenthe conscious decision to set aside a very small amount of money to practice trading/investing.

I think your right that we have alot more negatives to go.I envied Nimatzo, who started off ignorant of crypto investing and picked up quick to become knowledgeable.

I still have a long way to go.

One thing that I still am struggling with is shorts and how they effect the stock price and how I can analyze data to help figure that out.

I get that alot of ppl shorting can add pressure to keep a price down.

And WEBULL has some great tools to analyze. But what I dont get is how to quantify that pressure and how to figure out how long it will affect it.

For example on $Soun the final factor that lead me to buy was seeing that $CITI had pulled out of its short position and on the charts it didnt appear to have any short interests except 1 from 4/29 which from the chatter I heard was no longer in play and the flow was almost double for buying as it was for selling.

I noticed that the on all flows in and out its only small and medium buys, no thing large at all.
Habebe
Member
Tue May 24 14:48:39
Like I get if something has alot of shorts it means alotnof people think the stock is overvalued.
But what is a good way to quantify that and how do I find that out.
TheChildren
Member
Tue May 24 14:55:27
lol BS, u guyz gonna pretend u didnt lost moniez da past few weekz?

Rugian
Member
Tue May 24 15:00:39
Oh, I lost a shitton. Granted, it was all a reversal of gains that had been generated in 2020-2021, but still a bummer to lose it.

Good thing murder isn't in charge of national tax policy, he would have wanted me to pay taxes on unrealized gains that now no longer exist. :o
LazyCommunist
Member
Tue May 24 15:12:00
Hahaha

"why did the crypto crash happen?

bitcoin turned 13, and libertarians lost interest"
murder
Member
Tue May 24 18:41:34

"Good thing murder isn't in charge of national tax policy, he would have wanted me to pay taxes on unrealized gains that now no longer exist. :o"

Look at the bright side, that money would have gone to provide for the poor instead of turning to vapor.

Habebe
Member
Thu May 26 13:10:32
Amazon stick is having a 20-1 split. Already down to just above 2k will be about $110.
Habebe
Member
Thu May 26 13:13:26
So far $SOUN has been my best investment short term and Im up 36%!

GNUS is still doing pretty shitty and TSLA is doong less horrible, but that's a long term buy, I definitely bought to early though.
nhill
Member
Thu May 26 18:54:47
Nice! That's a great win in this environment. Your entry was clearly timed well.
Habebe
Member
Thu May 26 19:14:03
Yes, a bit of luck and since Ive had a difficult time quantifying shorts, I've just been avoiding stocks with large shorting interests at all.

I think that was my mistake with $GNUS , a media company with a bunch of lucrative IP like stan lee and Schwarzenegger.

My dabbling into investing has tuaght me a few things.

1. If I dont understand how a stock creates value, I avoid it (IE certain medical stocks)

2. If it has any large shorts against it, avoid it like the plague until they are gone.

3. Im really bad at picking stocks on the way up.

4. In bear markets be careful of guessing the floor price. I still think I got a deal long-term on TSLA in the 800s, but short term its been terrible.

5. Im avoiding petrol stocks because Im too wary of the politics, the way things are going who knows if we get new regulations or price controls etc.


As for #2, I see the short interests and such but I need to figure out how to quantify that better.

So far my goal of becoming more comftorable ahead of the next bull run has been a success IMO.
Habebe
Member
Fri May 27 17:37:16
WEBULL seems to have a simulated trading thing Im going tonokay around with for some risk free experience.

But for an update today was a good day. TSLA was up alot, still lower than my buy in though.

$Soun is almost at $8 for a 65% increase from my purchase price.

I havnt seen too much chatter about it except 3 weeks ago when the consensus is it looks promising, has great contracts BUT very speculative, low volume makesnit volatile and has competition with much deeper pockets.

They did say that the company cant be shorted, not sure how that works exactly, can they just notnallow shorting?
nhill
Member
Fri May 27 17:47:34
I want to respond to you more thoroughly, but I keep only getting a few free moments to post here.

But I'll give my brief understanding of short positioning.

It doesn't always mean the stock will go down-- in fact, in a bull market, it's fairly common for a hot stock to always have high short interest. That doesn't necessarily mean people expect or even want it to go down. Often times short positions are hedges against long positions. For example, you might be long Shell, but short Exxon to lock in gains.

For example:

You're long Shell and it goes up +60%. You feel like the company still has momentum over its competitors but you're worried the sector is getting overbought. Instead of selling Shell, which would realize a gain, you can lock in the gains by shorting Exxon. And keep adding to the short position as the price appreciates.

That way, in the event of a market or sector selloff, you don't lose the +60% you earned AND you don't have to pay non-capital gains taxes.

It's what the pros do.

So often a stock with high short interest isn't because people think the stock is going down, at least in a bull market.

That logic gets reversed in a bull market, though, as many people are net short by now. So they'll actually go LONG on stocks as a hedge for now.

Overall, like most metrics, short interest has fairly limited utility without understanding general market positioning and the portfolio of the big players shorting.

The other thing to be aware of with stocks that have high short interest is they are suspect to legal market manipulation. Oftentimes people in short positions have stop losses or a margin limit. Once either of those get hit, they have to buy the stock automatically (the dreaded margin call), which can cause a huge increase in price.

We saw that play out most prominently with GameStop last year. The reason it exploded wasn't because a bunch of degenerates bought the stock. It was because it had the highest short interest in the S&P500 at the time, and didn't have very deep liquidity. Therefore, once people started buying it en masse it began to liquidate or stop out big short positions.

Which caused the price to go up and created this cycle where new people bought because the price was going up, then more people got liquidated, and then it snowballed from there.

Any questions about short interest specifically, or does that help?

I'm not expert on it, and I've never used short positioning much. Just you gather knowledge over the years.
nhill
Member
Fri May 27 17:51:57
Habebe you can short any stock.

There's nothing special about shorting.

All you need to do is find someone to lend you some shares.
nhill
Member
Fri May 27 17:52:23
Shorting is where you borrow shares and sell them at market price and the repay the debt later, ideally when the market price is lower.
Habebe
Member
Fri May 27 22:43:23
Nhill, Yeah I get that, but I was watching some market show today that said twice they couldn't short it, that's what I was confused at.

On a semi related topic Bill Gates apparently still has a large short against TSLA, so the Gamestonk guys on twitter are trying to get people to short squeeze him for shits and giggles. Kind of hope it works so I can recoup my losses.
Habebe
Member
Fri May 27 22:47:19
http://youtu.be/26DPfo1AxnU

He says there isnt the ability to short or have put options.

That's what confused me.
nhill
Member
Fri May 27 22:53:23
He's from TD Ameritrade, maybe they don't lend out or underwrite options for $SOUN.

I can both short it and buy options on Fidelity.

Some tickers aren't shortable depending on the broker because people have to opt into lending their shares.

But, anyways, never pay attention to anyone that says you can't short something. It's impossible to stop shorting, unless you ban selling. OTC deals happen all the time. Brokers only make deals easier.

Every stock in existence is shortable and always has been.
nhill
Member
Fri May 27 22:55:13
"That logic gets reversed in a bull market, though, as many people are net short by now. So they'll actually go LONG on stocks as a hedge for now.

Overall, like most metrics, short interest has fairly limited utility without understanding general market positioning and the portfolio of the big players shorting."

^typo here. I mean the logic gets reversed in a bear market.
nhill
Member
Fri May 27 23:02:52
>On a semi related topic Bill Gates apparently still has a large short against TSLA, so the Gamestonk guys on twitter are trying to get people to short squeeze him for shits and giggles.

These people are idiots. WSB had one success in a low liquidity high short interest stock. It's not going to work here. If it does I'll eat my hadt.

Bill Gates isn't gonna get blown out of his short position, he's not a hedge fund. He can just increase his margin indefinitely if he'd like. Maybe even purchase some call options as insurance, or put up some of his Microsoft stock as collateral. He can indeed remain solvent longer than WSB remains stupid.

The GameStonk debacle targeted a hedge fund, which only has the capital they raise.

Also TSLA has some of the deepest liquidity in the market. There is 0.0000000000% chance that retail could squeeze. GameStonk worked because the order book was basically empty at the time.
nhill
Member
Fri May 27 23:05:34
No offense to your position but I have been pondering shorting $TSLA down to it's fair value (around $200) on the next bounce.

It has a P/E ratio of 90. We're in a risk-off environment. It's going to go down if the market keeps deleveraging (which it will for at least 5-7 weeks, maybe even into 2023 at worst).
nhill
Member
Fri May 27 23:06:07
Bill Gates having a massive short position on Tesla is a smart play.
Habebe
Member
Fri May 27 23:28:23
I take no offense, I realize the speculative nature at the worlds leading car company that also produces cara in the 100s of thousands compared to VW cranking put millions.
Habebe
Member
Fri May 27 23:30:29
Elon was playing fast and loose with stock manipulation which is where the squeeze talk stemmed from.

I know your shocked, Elon influencing stock prices via tweeting.lol
nhill
Member
Fri May 27 23:33:28
Yeah big surprise, lol.

Look I get it, it’s fun to think like this. But a small cap stick with an empty order book is easy to squeeze.

One of the hottest stocks on earth that often is #1 in volume for S&P. Simply not going to happen, even if Elon tries to dick measure.

We’re taking apples and oranges here :)
nhill
Member
Fri May 27 23:34:00
Damn phone autocomplete, worst part of being on the road heh
Habebe
Member
Sat May 28 03:05:15
He didn't strike me as the kimd of guy taking out a loan. If henlived at home he probably had savings, mabey bday cash or something.
Habebe
Member
Mon May 30 05:42:39
Earthpig, Coincidentally I did a promotion on WEBULL and won 17 free stocks. They were all GNW except 2, 1 CX and 1 your UWMC.
Habebe
Member
Mon May 30 05:44:01
So, nothing big, but a free $70 aint bad.
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Mon May 30 06:25:26
The Tesla valuation gets worse with Elon himself explaining that designing fancy cars isn't the big achievement (everyone can do that), it's getting your shit together manufacturing them efficiently without going bankrupt that is the achievement. And he takes great pride in Tesla surviving that process. Indeed, good job, *looks at marketcap* but things are still way off here.
Habebe
Member
Mon May 30 06:41:14
Is TSLA over priced? Yes and no. Short term, I think its very likely it will dive more because my gut says too many dominoes are lined up for a major recession (real estate to go next)

But a value is more than just earnings. TSLA is very speculative, but for a reason. Normal metrics havnt really applied to TSLA in 10 years.

1. They are the leader in what most people agree is the future of cars.

2. They really don't have any competition yet as a company.

3. They are not comparable to other car companies because of the model.

Most car companies build engines and assemble cars. TSLA makes almost all of their own parts, they make the batteries (w/Panasonic), they write their own software, they own the worlds largest electric fueling network and they sell their own cars without dealerships.

Which is why their revenue keeps growing and they still have comparably an insane margin, they are 6 companies in one.

I jist don't see anyone competing with them inn
the near future.Legacy carmakers just can't seem to make or sell many Evs.
Habebe
Member
Mon May 30 12:37:25
Has anyone looked into algorithmic trading? Just curious.
nhill
Member
Mon May 30 12:48:39
I’m on my phone right now, don’t want to type up a big response to anything, but yes I have written trading algorithms. Never had much success with them, but it was only to learn, not make money. The book Python for finance by Packt was a good resource
Habebe
Member
Mon May 30 12:59:39
cool!

I noticed python was big for that. its the only coding I rally know other than some obscure ruby I used years ago on adderall, lol.

im not fluent by anymeans.

#helloworld
murder
Member
Mon May 30 13:29:31

"Is TSLA over priced? Yes and no."

This is 100% correct ... except for the no part. Paying a huge premium today for pie in the sky a decade or more down the road makes absolutely no sense.

And that's assuming that the pie ever gets here.

Habebe
Member
Mon May 30 13:44:16
"This is 100% correct ... except for the no part. Paying a huge premium today for pie in the sky a decade or more down the road makes absolutely no sense."

People said this 10 years ago.Stock price has increased like 2k% since.
murder
Member
Mon May 30 15:15:27

"People said this 10 years ago.Stock price has increased like 2k% since."

Yes and that's the point. Tesla's valuation is irrationally high. There's not much underpinning that valuation.

Habebe
Member
Tue May 31 21:57:59
So, I lost some gains with $Soun

All in all I made a little over $200 off of about $400. I sold ot at 7.22, paid 4.6. It has gone back up to 7.6 , but I still came out ahead a couple of bucks, % wise ot was really good for me.

I actually sold most of my assets today. I'll still have fun dabbling, but I dont think its gonna be a good week so I'll play more conservative.
nhill
Member
Tue May 31 22:17:08
Great trade!
nhill
Member
Tue May 31 22:26:00
Beers on you, ya? ;)
Habebe
Member
Wed Jun 01 03:49:54
Sure, any time your in the area.

Wanted to pick your brain on Polkadot and Kusama.

Created by Gavin wood from ETH.

From what I gather, Kusama is the high risk testing ground to see if a project is good enough for polka dot.

Ksm uses nPos to let people quickly vote and change things while polka is more of the see hobbit works on ksm than implement it here coin.

To me the best comparison is KSM is the house and Polkadot the Senate.

But KSM also has a fixed supply, like BTC.
LazyCommunist
Member
Wed Jun 01 05:06:28
Dumb smart contracts are the future!

http://www...ent-unnoticed-for-seven-months

A $90 million DeFi exploit on Terra went unnoticed for seven months

In October 2021, DeFi application Mirror Protocol succumbed to a $90 million exploit on the old Terra blockchain — and it went completely unnoticed until last week.

Mirror protocol allowed users to take long or short positions on tech stocks using synthetic assets. It was built on Terra, which collapsed earlier this month after its main stablecoin lost its peg to the US dollar, dragging its sister token Luna down with it. (The blockchain has now been revived as Terra 2.0, while the original chain lives on as Terra Classic).

The exploit was discovered by a Terra community member and analyst called “FatMan.” He has been one of the most vocal antagonists in the recent launch of the new Terra blockchain.

Security firm BlockSec corroborated the community member’s findings by analyzing the specific exploit transaction. BlockSec confirmed an exploit did indeed take place.

How did the exploit happen?

Whenever someone wanted to bet against a stock on Mirror, they had to lock collateral — including UST, LUNA Classic (LUNC), and mAssets — for a minimum of 14 days.

After the trade concluded, users could unlock the collateral to release the funds back to the wallet. All of this was done with the help of smart contract-generated ID numbers.

However, due to buggy code, the Mirror’s lock contract allegedly failed to check when someone used the same ID more than once to withdraw funds.

In October 2021, one unknown entity noticed that they could use a list of duplicate IDs to repeatedly unlock hundreds of times more collateral than they had. This basically meant the perpetrator could withdraw funds without any authorization.
Habebe
Member
Wed Jun 01 13:41:53
Im going to try some simulated options trading. Ive never dealt with options, so I like the idea of being able to donit with fake internet money before Inuse real money.
nhill
Member
Wed Jun 01 14:46:01
Definitely use fake money until you lose it all about 10 times, because options are crazy.

A good usage for options is to use them as insurance against a position you are holding but want to hedge.

Trading options requires a lot of capital, because you want to trade LEAPS (Long-Term Equity Anticipation Securities) with option expirations at least a year out due to theta and time decay.

Implied volatility is another concept that will hurt you if unaware. With the right volatility the stock could move in up but your call options would lose value (because they implied a greater volatility than is present during the move).

But options are a really good way to understand the market. Paper trading them is a good move for sure.
Habebe
Member
Sat Jun 04 15:50:16
Does anyone have any thoughts on $MF?

Its a food delivery app/grocery in China, backed by tencent. Their revenues have done really well, but they havnt made much profit, just expanding. They did really well during lockdowns , the stock price was up to $11, its down to like .25/ a share, I bought in @ .33 figuring it should atleast pop to .50.

They diluted shares which was some of the price drop. They could be on shaky ground in the next few years, time will tell.

But they have an earnings report on the 8th which are likely to be good news
nhill
Member
Sat Jun 04 19:18:52
It's down 98% so it certainly is on sale. I don't think the food delivery business is sustainable, personally, and China stocks are pretty risky because they could get delisted from the Nasdaq if they start to attack our currency.

Worth a short term gamble on earnings I would think. There can't be too many more sellers ;)
Habebe
Member
Sat Jun 04 22:10:12
Definitely not a long term hold. For exactly the reasons you said.

I figure if It starts to stall anywhere at or above .50 I'll sell and make a quick few bucks.
nhill
Member
Sat Jun 04 23:17:23
Good luck =)
Habebe
Member
Sun Jun 05 00:26:16
http://twi...?t=6m00cPprbEUtT-wE9NC8sQ&s=19

Can you help me make sense of this put.

How is the contract for 1 TSLA share worth more than the entire stock, and he only paid $42 for it?

I have to be reading thus wrong.

1 contract for multiple shares I guess.

Im still a little lost.
nhill
Member
Sun Jun 05 00:36:38
Option contracts are sold in lots of 100, so he paid $610 and sold for $4255.

Pure gambling, if it had a green day it would have been worth $0.

Pretty much betting on red/black at the roulette table. I’ve had much bigger wins than that messing with options. One time I had a 12,000% gain. But it’s very easy to lose it all back.
Habebe
Member
Sun Jun 05 00:37:25
So he used a little over $600 , the gain was like 640%, the net just under $600, Im assuming thats the difference for paying the premium.

Im still a little lost though.Im going to do some research because I admittedly know almost nothing on these.
Habebe
Member
Sun Jun 05 00:48:34
I didnt se your post before I posted again.
Habebe
Member
Sun Jun 05 01:22:55
So let me see if I get this.

The options buyer (ob) and the seller (os)

Made a deal on Thursday that for $610 the OB has the right to buy 100 shares for $712 over the next x amount of time, lets say a day.

During that time the price jumped to $748, a $36.37 per share difference.

So the OB can now sell 100 shares from the OS on the market @$748.

Profiting 36.37 x100=$3,637- $610=$3027.

So the OB thought the price would jump, the OS figured it was a safe bet that it would drop, but he could make $610 of that "safe bet"

Am I correct in that?
Habebe
Member
Sun Jun 05 01:27:38
Or rather, he (OB) sold the right to purchase those 100 shares to someone else for $3712?
Habebe
Member
Mon Jun 06 13:11:28
Well, I'm thrilled I got out of $Soun @ 7.22, it floundered around near $8 and sank 40% today with no news.

$MF Is up 20% today, just broke .30
Habebe
Member
Fri Jun 10 08:37:39
Wow....today looks like a bloodbath....like full on horror movie.
earthpig
GTFO HOer
Fri Jun 10 17:49:25
Vanguard is getting so many questions about "how do I buy I bonds" that they put this up when I logged in:

http://imgur.com/a/TkX7VPB

Habebe, was that you that pitched them months ago? Power to ya, I partook myself FYI.
earthpig
GTFO HOer
Fri Jun 10 17:51:21
I checked in with a former Marine turned financial advisor dude last month and he was like "oh, yeah, we loaded up eight families with I Bonds just this week."

Here's the video he shares, from back when I Bonds only paid 7%:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7nlYdi_6Ow8
nhill
Member
Fri Jun 10 19:27:16
That was me but Habebe can have the credit ;)
nhill
Member
Fri Jun 10 19:30:42
I predicted all of this accurately in June 2020 and was warning about stagflation here for over a year
Habebe
Member
Fri Jun 10 19:45:49
I pitched it Nhill sold it to you when he said he mentioned the exclusivity of 10k per person.:)

I'll share credit.
Habebe
Member
Fri Jun 10 21:26:34
Tesla is planning a stock 3:1 stock split.

Not sure if the effect of stock splits are as big as it used to be with easy access to fractional shares.

But it may give a psychological boost to retail investors, which I would guess is a bigger boon to TSLA than most stocks.

Ok, quick googling shows 43% of TSLA is owned by retail investors.Toyota 12%, so yeah, TSLA gets a sizeable bump from oublic popularity.
earthpig
GTFO HOer
Fri Jun 10 23:07:59
Split credit it is. :)
Habebe
Member
Sat Jun 11 22:59:44
AUVI looks interesting. Im not suoer versed in them , but always looking for deals.

Im always extra hesitant of medical companies. They seem to have made a new bandage for IV lines that will be widespread. Ill find out more about that before I think of buying in to them.

They won a "sole source provider contract for aerocides FDA II class medical devices" I love anything proprietary or sole source provider. As of 6/9

But their charts look impressive.

Short interest is 0.54%

Average 10 day volume 15.9 million

Trading for around $2.30, analysts pin it at $6-10.

I think $3-3.5 in the next few days looks reasonable.

But again, Just a "keep an eye out/look into" sort thing. Not investment advice, as of yet Im not even planning to buy in, just interested in it.



earthpig
GTFO HOer
Mon Jun 13 03:23:39
UWMC is paying a >10% ROI divvy again.

CEO and his immediate fam fam own 94% of shares.

They could 100% cut the divvy off. For every $6 that saves, his family loses $94.

Mortgage refinances are dead, obviously, and home purchases are in the gutter while everyone plays "wait and see" with the economy.

In spite of that crazy cheap share price and >10% divvy, this is the #1 purchase mortgage lender in the country by both units and volume, and virtually no one has ever heard of them b/c they do not speak with or work with homebuyers directly.

Pitch stack: http://s26...Presentation-November-2021.pdf
earthpig
GTFO HOer
Mon Jun 13 03:29:56
(Nov 2021)
Habebe
Member
Mon Jun 13 07:46:21
EP, I ended up keeping my free shares of them, so I got the notice, its a good deal.

This may be the worst pre market im recent time. Everything looks down 3-5%.

Crypto crash might not bode well for stocks today. Ethereum was 1.2k, BTC @24

I don't remember the change.
Habebe
Member
Mon Jun 13 08:37:53
RDBX may get a boost from stinkers, but its such a gamble.

Everything else looks bad, really bad.
Habebe
Member
Mon Jun 13 08:51:14
AUVI is doing well, I didnt end up investing, but its on my paper trade.
nhill
Member
Mon Jun 13 10:14:29
I've always liked UWMC for real estate exposure and the sexy dividend. I owned them for a while last year and will consider purchasing some shares again this year. Maybe in July/August, let this deleveraging mature a bit
nhill
Member
Mon Jun 13 10:16:33
earthpig, thanks for talking UWMC with me last year, I sold based tangentially on your thoughts, which turned out to be a good move since it's down like 70% now. But looks squarely in a value area. I'm not a buyer of anything at the moment, still have my stagflation portfolio since June 2020 for that capital gains sweetness. But it's about time to rebalance that and front-run the recovery (I'm feeling like August is the safest time to rebalance)
earthpig
GTFO HOer
Mon Jun 13 10:38:31
@nhill - cheers. :)

This chart is mortgage backed security sales prices, the most direct co-correlate to consumer facing mortgage rates short of 'getting a quote.'

It's 'inverted,' red means rates are up, green means rates are down.

Between Friday and this morning, they've once again had to re-scale the entire thing. It's not just the movement, that's whatever, it's that they keep having to make all the vertical bars to the left smaller, so the vertical bars on the right will fit. THAT is crazy.

http://imgur.com/a/Za5q9BT

UWMC has dropped from it's ballpark $4 range (it hovered +/- $0.10 for the longest) to $3.58 as of now.

For well qualified homebuyers with 20% down, I'll be quoting rates that start with a 6 today!
Habebe
Member
Mon Jun 13 10:59:05
http://www...5wU1h0NjNWejYwdVhLa1ljblVLWA..

While not a robot investor, I foumd a cool tool for charts that tracks RSI and MF.

"Using built-in code from Divergence Indicator I've created the MF RSI indicator.

A great way to combine two great indicators and divergence.

A alert condition is available on a potential reversal MFI crosses RSI on overbought or oversold."

Havnt tried it yet, but lools useful.
nhill
Member
Mon Jun 13 12:09:29
Divergences are pretty good bottom & top indicators, looks like a nice tool for swing trading!
Habebe
Member
Mon Jun 13 20:06:01
Wow, 499 of the s&p 500 (504 stocks) ended in the red today, they thought they all might, which apparently hasn't happened since 1990.

Also why not call it the s&p 504?

In 2018 it was 505, we lost one.
nhill
Member
Mon Jun 13 20:11:19
S&P 500 is 500 companies but some companies (i.e. Google and Berkshire ) issue different classes of shares.
Sam Adams
Member
Mon Jun 13 20:24:15
"For well qualified homebuyers with 20% down, I'll be quoting rates that start with a 6 today!"

So, with a 2.5% loan on my current home, i am never selling. If i ever want to move, i am renting this place out.
earthpig
GTFO HOer
Mon Jun 13 21:29:09
That lack of liquidity is my biggest concern. It's not a bear or bull thing, it's simply a refusal to swap this house for that house.

People sell for a few reasons. That's where we get inventory.

When "changing needs and preferences" means swapping 2.x% for 6.x% maybe that kitchen ain't so bad after all.

Or ok so job offer comes with the new house at 6.x%. Is it really that much of a promotion?

And so on

Idk what the buzz word will be. Liquidity crisis?
Sam Adams
Member
Mon Jun 13 23:16:15
Yup. Im definitely not the only one thinking that. Wonder how its gonna shake out.
earthpig
GTFO HOer
Mon Jun 13 23:22:21
There will be public pressure and rates will come down. People can/will/do suck up a 1% bump for changing tastes and preferences, etc, there was no real estate liquidity crisis in 2018 when they'd jumped from 3.75% to 4.75%.
earthpig
GTFO HOer
Mon Jun 13 23:24:17
I was tempted to buy a bunch of mortgage bonds today, since they're so far in the gutter (check out stock ticker MBB). If there's one thing we more or less know for 100% certain will get bailed out for idiotic "too big to fail" reasons, it's the debt that pumps up American real estate for the American dream.
Habebe
Member
Tue Jun 14 10:23:37
Apparently everyone wants stock splits now, Alphabet (Goog) is doing a 20:1.
Habebe
Member
Tue Jun 14 20:55:09
And 30 yr mortgage rates are @6.28%....EP was on point.
earthpig
GTFO HOer
Wed Jun 15 00:51:04
Those aggregators are always delayed. "Today's" rate are always actually like 2-5 days ago's rates.

When rates are trending up (like now), they're publishing better-than-realistic numbers.

When rates are trending down, it makes it easy to look like a rock star.

It looks like that 6.28% is from MND, this is inclusive of them. Their "today" is always a couple days behind. Not really relevant in a ballpark flat rate environment.
Habebe
Member
Thu Jun 16 11:32:55
Ep, I guess, Id heard it on Yahoo finance YT.
Rugian
Member
Thu Jun 16 13:14:59
Equities markets getting hammered today.

Or as I call it, the income yields on the fair value of my portfolio holdings are becoming increasingly attractive.

Gotta stay on the sunny side.
Habebe
Member
Thu Jun 16 13:34:42
Rugian, All week was bloody. Yesterday was ok, relative to the rest.

There are glimmers of hope in swing trades.But I wouldn't count them as long term holds.
nhill
Member
Thu Jun 16 14:20:07
Rugian doesn't know you can time the market, so DCA is the best approach for him. ;)
Rugian
Member
Thu Jun 16 14:50:52
"Time in the market beats timing in the market"
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