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Utopia Talk / Politics / Ukrainian loss of Severodonetsk a trap
Pillz
Member
Thu Jun 02 20:17:33
@jergul
Actually the media called them cities and towns for pro Ukrainian statements, but villages for Russian ones.

So Ukraine liberate a city, but when Russia bombed it it was only a town.
When Russia retakes a village, it is a a village.

But looking at Google maps nothing in the area qualifies as a town either way
jergul
large member
Fri Jun 03 05:58:38
Well, the true measure will be from November to March. It is one thing to manage severe electricity and gas disruptions in the summer...

The West really needs to get its act together. It is obvious to me now that Ukraine needs a standard diesel train engine fit for Ukrainian gauge (perhaps 300) and a standard long haul truck (lets run with 5000, though I am tempted to say 10000).
OsamaIsDaWorstPresid
Member
Fri Jun 03 06:12:52
jargul r u gona cry wen putin diez
jergul
large member
Fri Jun 03 07:39:39
Why do you even think that matters? Eastern Europe is quite good at generating new authoritarian figures at the drop of a hat. Putin 2.0 will not change anything.

You may be a troll account, but it sort of is the kind of wishful thinking that is creating problems for Ukraine.

We only need to give Ukraine enough crap we dont need from our arsenals and soon something will happen that will miraculously end the conflict.

The iranian-iraq conflict lasted 8 years. Russia can feed the Ukrainian conflict at current levels of commitment for far longer than that.

Remember if you will that Russia has not even bothered invoking its selective services act (partial mobilization).

Winter is coming. That is what Ukraine should get help to prepare for now.
obaminated
Member
Fri Jun 03 10:16:45
Jergul, wouldn't winter be worse for invading forces? Russia is already having issues getting their columns moving in relatively good weather. What happens when winter sets in and they are dealing with a blizzard?
Pillz
Member
Fri Jun 03 20:52:38
Russia had problems in the beginning because it over extended and didn't have the logistics in place to continue an advance or sustained static defensive lines in the north.

In the east and south Russia was able to establish those lines and they're continuing to move on strategic objectives like rail ways etc that allow them to extend their supply lines to the front lines and generally deny the enemy of the same. This means come winter Russia will probably have a front line that is easily supplied directly from Russia, but Ukraine's nearest hubs for transit & resupply will be further back.

There are also fewer rail lines the further west you go, whereas Donbas is littered with them. Trains have a distinct advantage over highways and trucks in winter, so there's that.

And finally there is the fact that the Russian army probably - probably - won't be starving. But the Ukrainian army and civilians? Probably will be.

At this point Severodonetsk is lost, because the resources were pooled into Lysychansk. But Lysychansk is essentially cut off because of artillery fire.

The Ukrainians in Donbas face a very real risk of having their last 2 lines of supply and retreat cut off entirely. And there has been a lot of ordinance sent into Lysychansk and a lot of experienced men.

According to this map here

https://geoworld.space/ukraine/

Russia has made significant gains south of Lysychansk taking Kompowhatever and zolote and contesting hirske. This would connect supply lines directly along (current if true) front line.

Meanwhile the rest of that area around Lysychansk controlled by Ukraine is supplied...by the same two death trap highways that Lysychansk is.

Also possible that Russia is posed to finish off resistance around that lake where the line collapsed last week.

All other sources show fighting but no change in the line except this one. Who knows.
Pillz
Member
Fri Jun 03 21:08:06
And according to South Front, Russia has at least assaulting settlements east of Kharkiv if not actually capture them, but probably did.

https://southfront.org/military-situation-in-kharkiv-region-ukraine-on-june-2-2022-map-update/
Jesse Malcolm Barack
Member
Sat Jun 04 03:13:21
Fox criticizing america for arming ukraine instead of being diplomatic

http://www...-defense-contractors-greenwald

The war in Ukraine is only benefiting a small sliver of Americans in the defense industry while the Biden administration appears to be prolonging the conflict

And I think this op-ed really reflects the fact of how suppressed the debate has been, because it points to things like, we've been in Ukraine since 2014, we've been arming them since at least 2017 or 2018 with heavy weaponry, making very provocative gestures toward Russia right on the other side of the border.

And there's been an absence of any attempt to resolve the war diplomatically, which is what you would be doing, trying to solve it diplomatically if you actually cared about the Ukrainians.

The Biden administration instead has been escalating the war seemingly deliberately, which is what you would do if you don't care about Ukrainians
jergul
large member
Sat Jun 04 04:37:14
Mud is bad for attacking forces. It confines movement to roads. Winter is fine. It turns mud into asphalt for all practical purposes.

But I was speaking in terms of civilian stuff. Its fine to tough it out without heating and electricity in the summer. It is not fine in the winter. This I have experienced. A 72 hour loss of power, heating (hot water) and gas in a soviet style 8 story building. That was really tough and I was young, grew up in the arctic, and did not really give a shit about pratical comforts.

This will correspond with max energy costs in the rest of Europe.

The Russian tactic is not really about taking ground. It is mostly about fixing Ukrainian positions and grinding them to dust with Arty, tanks at range, missiles, atgms (which are good bunker busters) and airpower.

Advances are mostly recon in force to locate enemy positions. Russia aint storming shit. It is letting ranged weapons do the heavy lifting.
Pillz
Member
Sat Jun 04 17:26:39
https://mobile.twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1529045741519486978?s=20&t=jp6sr6vz3Ki4y9YTonlWwA

According to this Canadian reporter in Donbas Russia has cut the road between Bakhmut and Lysychansk

And according to Ukrainian mod fighting has taken place in the villages along the road but they repelled the Russians.

Russia claims that they have definitively taken Komyshuvakha finally, but progress is slow advancing in the area because of heavy presence of land mines.

And its possible that Russia has finally taken the entirety of the railway between izium and Lyman.

And Ukraine and Russia are contesting control of villages east of Kharkiv, although probably Russia advances briefly and has since retreated.
jergul
large member
Sat Jun 04 19:31:14
Pillz
This is just for you.

Russia's problem is that it has to grind down Ukrainian forces faster than it can re-equip. So it is not doing stuff like isolating everything east of the dnepr by blowing up bridges crossing it.

It has to allow re-enforcements to the front piecmeal and destroy them in detail. The alternative is Ukraine hunkering down and fully equiping brigades.

This means force degradation is the important thing. The Izium-Russia rail-line is important (good catch. I had noted the rail junction Russia had been missing, but that is most def not part of the mainstream media experience). Towns here or there, not so much. Micro encirclements like Mariopol matter insofar as Ukrainian professionals are isolated and captured, but not otherwise beyond maintaining a sense of progression.

Its a question of blowing up Ukrainian shit faster than it can be replaced while Russia waits for winter and the disaster that will entail for Ukraine.

The Ukrainian slight of hand ignoring Russian nukes and pretending "victory" is possible remains dangerously insane. Russia will nuke before giving up the landbridge to Crimea.

France is entirely correct. Ukraine is constrained by what kind of military success it can afford to have. It cannot under any circumstances make Russia desperate.

No nuclear power can be made desperate if you want to avoid tactical nukes.
nhill
Member
Sat Jun 04 19:37:02
Just for pillz? Too bad, I read it anyways :P
jergul
large member
Sat Jun 04 20:40:06
Heh, I did not mean it like that, but Pillz sort of gets it. Ukraine is in huge trouble, but not for the reasons people think.

Russia is attacking in an area where territorial gains are militarily meaningless. The Caspian steppes are like an ocean. It does not matter what territory you hold. Or look at another way. What towns or cities are gamechangers in the area from severdonetsk to odesa?
nhill
Member
Sat Jun 04 20:44:01
I appreciate your analysis even if it is over my head :)
jergul
large member
Sat Jun 04 20:55:31
I was trying to indicate that right now that territory does not matter much. There is no decapitation objective. Like an ocean, it does not matter where your ships are. It matters who is sinking what ships.

The most likely ceasefire negotiation driver is starving people freezing to death on the streets of Kiev.

The huge problem Ukraine has is that time is on Russia's side.

This was sort of given from the moment projections said Ukraines economy will contract by 45% and Russia's by 7%.

murder
Member
Sun Jun 05 00:35:12

"No nuclear power can be made desperate if you want to avoid tactical nukes."

Except for all the times when that has occurred.

jergul
large member
Sun Jun 05 01:41:48
Truman might have been close. But he reigned in his rogue general. I otherwise have no idea how you are mangling the word desperate to suite your needs.
Pillz
Member
Sun Jun 05 10:40:39
Of course the driving Russian strategy is just to deplete Ukrainian resources (human and material). But Russia does want to establish the best possible lines of supply to the front line, so there are areas where the map does have to change colors as we covered already.

In the grand scheme of things a few villages or a mile of fields is irrelevant, but every minor skirmish increases the burden on the UAF to maintain an effective presence in the area (and often launch counter attacks that land them directly in RAF artillery cross hairs from what I gather in Kherson).

On that note, while I'm sure what Russia's probable objects between Kherson and Odessa are, I really don't know how they expect to take everything east Dnieper short of Ukraine collapsing as a nation after a couple of more years of this.

Which imo is another reason Russia has to continue to make territorial gains and not let the front turn static - after 2 or 3 years it won't be possible to just initiate the offensive because Ukraine is de populated and destitute. The west will frame is as a new invasion. It'll have to be slow and steady movements west (Kharkiv and sumy for example) and then once Ukraine has expended everything a push to the river.

I guess


Pillz
Member
Sun Jun 05 11:16:12
http://www...f-kyiv-sent-long-range-rockets

Russia struck newly supplied armour transiting through Kiev.
Sam Adams
Member
Sun Jun 05 13:25:08
Looks like another russian major general got wacked. Lol. When was the last time the US lost this many generals? Civil war?
Sam Adams
Member
Sun Jun 05 15:31:03
http://twi...?s=20&t=efBu75aemT-FHeDEJznuPg

More russians threatening nuclear war.
jergul
large member
Sun Jun 05 16:00:39
Sammy
Not to many of those are actually confirmed by funerals and other social media announcements.

Russia does not actually hide its dead.

Habebe
Member
Sun Jun 05 16:07:02
Russian major general appears to be as common as a Kentucky Colonel.
OsamaIsDaWorstPresid
Member
Sun Jun 05 16:08:34
"Russia does not actually hide its dead."

rofl

http://www...molskaya-hackers/31765465.html

"The online report, which appeared on the newspaper’s website on March 20, cited the Russian Defense Ministry as reporting that 9,861 Russian soldiers had died since the start of the war on February 24."

"Russia has officially confirmed just 498 deaths, a figure given early in the conflict without updates."
jergul
large member
Sun Jun 05 16:24:19
5/11 confirmed to claimed.

The last one is confirmed however.
jergul
large member
Sun Jun 05 16:26:54
Osama
What part about "hackers" do you not understand? 3250 confirmed Russian dead (in social media etc) + 3000 dead donbas troops (confirmed government sources).

Sam Adams
Member
Sun Jun 05 22:20:46
"Russia does not actually hide its dead."

Why do russian bots state the most obviously disprovable lies?

Like, if i was going to lie for a living, id distort some shit a bit, or come up with something that isnt so obviously disproved 800 times already.
jergul
large member
Mon Jun 06 06:41:50
One of the great oddities of the sanction regime is how it is set to dramatically improve Russia's nominal gdp.

Right now, Russian nominal gdp is 20% higher than it was when the invasion began. Inflation compensating for lower activity (fewer things sold, but they are more expensive in roubles) and the rouble having appreciated by more than 20%.

The only driver for that is more hard currency coming into the country than leaving the country. Meaning it has become more expensive to buy roubles and holding dollars above a certain buffer for private citizens is not desirable.

Companies are required to sell off 80% of their export revenues to purchase roubles is by far the most important driver in rouble demand (gas sold is in dollars, but then gazprom bank immediately buys roubles in the currency market).

Sanctions also make foreign investments almost impossible, so there is no currency flight abroad either.

In sum. Widemeshed sanctions are probably counterproductive.

It might have been better to let Russians buy their luxery goods and let oligarch stash away even more money in wester safe havens.

If the goal was to defund the Russian military machine at least.
Pillz
Member
Mon Jun 06 10:29:30
http://mob...ons/status/1533756120380088320

Ukraine shot down their own Su-27
Sam Adams
Member
Mon Jun 06 12:23:50
Another russian general may also have died with the one just noted. It sounds like a senior russian command convoy was schlonged while going over a bridge...
Pillz
Member
Mon Jun 06 12:56:24
Video released by Ukrainian mod of troops going into Severodonetsk appears to be of troops actually leaving the city and retreating back to Lysychansk, based on comparisons of buildings in the video
Pillz
Member
Mon Jun 06 13:04:15
And according to Russian MoD, 90 Ukrainians put down their arms and swam across the river back to Lysychansk.

At least own foreign fight unit sent into Severodonetsk over the weekend suffered 50% casualties in just 24 hours according to one of the members. Same person claims the offensive is halted, and they're trying to hold only the industrial area.

Kudos to the guy, he also says that he thinks Ukrainian forces can recapture it eventually

Pillz
Member
Mon Jun 06 13:14:59
Also it was a big day for Russia yesterday, destroying a cargo plane over Odessa, and severing the bridge south, the train in Kiev, 2 separate repair depots, and 13 warehouses chain reacted in a missile strike in Mykolaiv (Nikolaev?).
jergul
large member
Mon Jun 06 13:47:04
Well, two brits have been charged with crimes by Donbas.

Perhaps stop doing warcrime trials while the conflict is ongoing? It is a bit ludicrous frankly and the only thing it ensures is that your forces will also be charged.

Ukraine set the bar pretty low on what constitutes warcrimes, so lots of people on both sides are guilty by those standards.
Pillz
Member
Mon Jun 06 14:32:30
That probably has more to do with the vote of no confidence facing Boris
jergul
large member
Mon Jun 06 17:35:05
"He expressed this opinion on his Facebook page (outlawed in Russia, owned by Meta considered extremist organization in Russia) on Monday."

Is Russia wrong? :D
Pillz
Member
Tue Jun 07 12:15:50
In total, 190 Ukrainian aircraft and 129 helicopters, 1,139 unmanned aerial vehicles, 333 anti-aircraft missile systems, 3,443 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 478 multiple launch rocket systems, 1,807 field artillery and mortars, as well as 3,464 units of special military vehicles were destroyed during the operation.

- Russian tally for Ukrainian material losses
earthpig
GTFO HOer
Tue Jun 07 12:37:07
Russia and Ukraine are both treating their own actual KIA/WIA numbers as state secrets, SA.
jergul
large member
Tue Jun 07 12:43:36
Russia is counting civilian aircraft it assumes the Ukrainian military is using. Special military vehicles includes Toyota SUV teckies, so Ukraine is not going to run out of those.
jergul
large member
Tue Jun 07 12:46:44
EP
Ukraine is. And is getting support with that. No one has yet bothered to scrub social media to count the number of obits and memorial fb posts.

Russia is not publishing updates. Donetsk is posting almost losses almost daily. Luhansk is not.

But Russia is not censoring obits etc. 3300 and counting. A pro Ukrainian site updates daily on its internet scrub on that.
Pillz
Member
Tue Jun 07 12:47:07
https://t.me/asbmil/2067

lulz
Sam Adams
Member
Tue Jun 07 13:18:01
"Russian tally for Ukrainian material losses "

Lol.
jergul
large member
Tue Jun 07 13:37:17
Sammy
Probably not far off. Russia has the luxery of pounding depots, storage, and grounded aircraft.

Russia lost a couple dozen helicopters on the ground when Ukraine was able to squeek in through air defences.

That is an advantage Russia has all the time for its longer ranged missile systems.
jergul
large member
Tue Jun 07 15:45:43
EP
You are actually partially right. Russian courts just ruled that lists of named dead Russian soldiers are state secrets.
Dukhat
Member
Wed Jun 08 00:31:16
Ukraine can inflict a lot of casualties but they haven't show much ability to retake Land. Looks like so far Russia will keep the 20% of Eastern and SouthEastern Ukraine they've seized.
Pillz
Member
Wed Jun 08 00:42:58
Russia is walking away with like 7 oblasts at this point...
TheChildren
Member
Wed Jun 08 10:24:52
butbutbut is a traaappppp?

Pillz
Member
Thu Jun 09 13:54:27
LPR courts have sentences 1 Moroccan and 2 British citizens to death
Pillz
Member
Thu Jun 09 15:41:35
Ukraine admits its losing roughly 200 men a day.

Russia conducting shells/minor skirmishes all around Avdiivka.

Operations in Hirske and Avdiivka are similar to those in Severodonetsk imo. Idea being to pin in place veterans while forcing the Ukraine to funnel reinforcements and equipment in that can be easily targeted by Russian artillery before they even enter what is essentially just one giant drone-assisted hunting ground.

While forcing Ukraine to move large amounts of men and equipment, it is targeting stockpiles and new shipments and infrastructure (repair depots over the weekend, a training facility today), creating a general disruption of operations and making it nigh impossible for proper organization of logistics or equipment, especially along the front in Donbas.

And to spice things up, increased shelling along the russian/Ukrainian border

Sam Adams
Member
Thu Jun 09 20:46:53
"Ukraine admits its losing roughly 200 men a day."

That would make sense. Russia is losing about that, and ukraines military isnt good, so the loss rates are probably similar.

The funny thing about all this is not that russia is losing, but that they are not winning. It is that russias military is being matched on equal terms by the ukraine, a nation that was probably about #40 on the gobal power list.
nhill
Member
Thu Jun 09 20:49:43
Is that primarily due to outside funding, Ukraine's military being underestimated globally, or Russia's being overrated?

I would imagine a mix of the three, to my untrained eye (I know next to nothing about modern military evaluation)
Pillz
Member
Thu Jun 09 21:08:39
There is really no comparison here as to who is winning. Not only is the Ukraine failing in all of its counter offensives (along the road between Bakhmut and Lysychansk, currently trying their 3rd attempt in 2 weeks in Kherson, izyum, Lysychansk itself, and they're at a 'stand still' near Kharhiv)

But they're suffering daily strikes deep behind their lines, and Russia continues to make advances on key targets.

Russian tactics are pretty similar to those they employed in Syria at this point, except with significantly more resistance and no sieges.

Ukraine should be doing significantly better vs Russia with all this westernt aid. But the issue is Ukraine is just that bad.

Russia is winning. The question is whether or not the Ukraine can stop the bleed this summer or will it have to contend next year with a Russia that had all winter to repair and resupply while they've been suffering in country missile strikes and attacks on transports and armour along the front constantly...
nhill
Member
Thu Jun 09 21:17:56
So the Western aid is why we are even having this discussion?
Pillz
Member
Thu Jun 09 21:37:19
Western aid in the form of anti tank and anti aircraft weapons, as well as drones, satellite resources, and US assistance in command&control.

But like, in my opinion we're just seeing that material aid and limited assistance in the command center isn't worth that much. Probably very limited western troops on the ground anywhere near the frontlines, no air support, etc.

Meanwhile Russia has the military infrastructure in place already, they have air superiority, they have people with experience in combat operations and overseeing combat operations not only in command&control but on the front as well.

And aid to Ukraine is not that significant and not an easy task because of disagreements between European nations on top of within them.

Ukraine is going to get progressively less aid as the situation continues imo.
nhill
Member
Thu Jun 09 21:39:48
I would have thought the Western intelligence community would be the most valuable contribution. Weapons are great, but would think valuable targets would be of even more value.

But I just watched the new Top Gun today so probably am influenced by that, heh.
Sam Adams
Member
Thu Jun 09 21:43:04
"Not only is the Ukraine failing in all of its counter offensives"

Lolwhat? Wheres russias northern army?
Sam Adams
Member
Thu Jun 09 21:45:08
"Is that primarily due to outside funding, Ukraine's military being underestimated globally, or Russia's being overrated?"

Ya, all.

Ukraine had way better morale than we thought, russia sucks way more than we thought, and javelins beat russian tanks easy.
Pillz
Member
Thu Jun 09 21:48:17
Russia withdrew in the north to focus in Donbas. Clearly their initial invasion didn't succeed as planned, but their present strategy is working out pretty well, clearly.

Western intelligence about what? Ukraine hasn't got the capability to strike significant targets by in large.
Pillz
Member
Thu Jun 09 21:49:10
Ukraine had 8 years to prepare for this and has lost 20% of the country in 4 months.
Sam Adams
Member
Thu Jun 09 22:43:02
"but their present strategy is working out pretty well, clearly"

Well is definitely not the word to use. Better than their retard lunge at kiev, sure. But a 1:1 or so kill rate against the podunk ukraine army? While being unable to advance faster than trench-digging speed? That aint good.
Seb
Member
Fri Jun 10 04:57:51
To some extent the west and Ukraine are repeating the russian mistakes.

They are drip feeding reinforcements and loosing mass rather than consolidating it.

7 howitzers here etc.


Seb
Member
Fri Jun 10 05:06:22
", but their present strategy is working out pretty well, clearly."

I think that is an odd perspective.

Russia claims to be a global power - super power even.

They are grinding out small chunks of territory at this point and are unlikely to make massive breakthroughs.


8 years preparation resulting in a country that was routed quickly last time by Russia hampered by using proxy forces and relatively low firepower asymmetric forces; to being able to hold off everything Russia is able to throw at them without full mobilisation.

That 20% represents Crimea and half of the Donbass region that Russia started with.

Pillz
Member
Fri Jun 10 14:56:36
"Any way you count it, the figures are stark: Ukrainian casualties are running at a rate of somewhere between 6oo and 1,000 a day. One presidential adviser, Oleksiy Arestovych, told the Guardian this week it was 150 killed and 800 wounded daily; another, Mykhaylo Podolyak, told the BBC that 100 to 200 Ukrainian troops a day were being killed."

http://www...-rate-russia-war-tipping-point

In other news, Ukrainian commanders are sounding off on the fact that Russia has overwhelming fire superiority on the front line...

@seb
Lol

Pillz
Member
Fri Jun 10 14:58:10
Head of Kiev centre of Defense Oleksandr V Danylyuk: “We don’t have the range and amount of artillery [that Russia posses], We fire once. They fire back 40 times. They retaliate to each of our strikes at least 20 times.”

Ukrop officials in interviews with western mainstream media add that at least 200 Ukrops now die everyday as Russia “presses Ukraine with its artillery build up and firepower superiority from stand off distances.” They add that Ukrop forces are basically waiting to get decimated as they have to stay close to the front line— at distances of Russian artillery whereas russian forces stay back due to their longer range ability.

Western officials say “it’s unclear whether Russia’s current progress employed through force has any strategic meaning”


Lol
Pillz
Member
Fri Jun 10 17:13:48
I'm curious what burden wounded will. Have on the Ukrainian in the near future.

If they're suffering the same casualties as Russia, they still have considerably less capacity. At what point does that begin to weigh on their health system
Sam Adams
Member
Fri Jun 10 17:21:11
Negatively of course.

Especially compared with russians... russians will just probably let their wounded veterans die while hiding them so they can pretend to their people that the war is going well.
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Sat Jun 11 13:55:29
3 Russian airplanes repeatedly entered Swedish terminal control area with transponders turned off and not responding to communications. As if they want to provoke something. Another Russian intelligence failure, Sweden is 80% sheep, they will not move a fin until they are in NATO. Worst case, we will play dead.
Pillz
Member
Sun Jun 12 15:47:51
Ukrainian offensive in Kherson fizzles again. Russia is now picking apart their formations at various villages.

Ukrainians making big pushes/preparations for major offensive on Izium, but appears to be baiting them for missile/air strikes.

Russia has presumably broken Ukrainian resistance in the industrial area of Severodonetsk, with the last confirmed bridge destroyed (but Ukraine??) so that's pretty much over.

Russia has secured two bridges on the very western end of that river Ukraine holds, North West of Sloviansk and are for now probing towards the only road to Sloviansk other than through that city next. Those forces are coming from the direction/area around Izium so looks like the Ukrainians will want to press Izium hard.
jergul
large member
Sun Jun 12 21:41:13
Seb
It is a forced mistake. Ukraine has to trickle in re-enforcements because the logistics strain does not allow for anything else and Russian pressure without re-enforcements means Russian advances.

Degrading Ukrainian forces is more important to Russia than sweeping territorial gains. Otherwise it would just blow the bridges crossing the dnepr and cut off the eastern front.

The downside to that is Ukraine would then be unable to do anything other than build up forces.
Pillz
Member
Tue Jun 14 22:22:33
Update

UAF shelled downtown Donetsk and hit a maternity hospital, UN condemns injuring civilians

UAF hit a city 50km inside of Russia with MLRS apparently

UAF destroyed a Russian ammo stockpile in Kherson with artillery fire.

Russia began deployment of more Smerch units

Zolote/Hirsch pocket is cut off, with some tiny settlement taken thus cutting the last way out

Russia in the area of Slovyansk has taken Sydorove

All the bridges to Severodonetsk have been destroyed, presumably 2500 UAF trapped

Reports from Ukrainians that (and this isnt verified by me at all) the collapse at Svitlodarsk was caused by redeploying the Nazi/foriegn/former paramilitary veterans to Severodonetsk.

Similarly, Russia has been pretty active near kharkov and Ukrainian counter offensives have been a lot less successful in the area. Russia presumably taken control of the situation because Kharkov's veteran units were also redeployed to Severodonetsk in the last couple of weeks.

Worries that in the next few weeks the loss of those troops will be felt.
Seb
Member
Wed Jun 15 05:33:43
jergul:

Forced for Ukraine, unforced by the West - we should provide enough of a flow to allow building mass and re-enforcing the front line.
Sam Adams
Member
Wed Jun 15 10:42:25
The russian proxy formation DNR published loss numbers: out of a force of 20k originally, 2k killed and 8k wounded.

10% dead and 50% casualties.
Pillz
Member
Wed Jun 15 11:00:07
Former US General claims 200k UAF soldiers are unaccounted for. Dead, wounded, or deserted, nobody knows.

http://www...krainian-soldiers-disappeared/

Story only carried by Russian sites.
Pillz
Member
Wed Jun 15 11:13:42
"Forced for Ukraine, unforced by the West - we should provide enough of a flow to allow building mass and re-enforcing the front line."

Considering nobody in the EU but Poland is really making en effort, I guess 'we' means the United States. And even Poland will have to stop eventually, as European allies like Switzerland refuse to replace what Poland is sending to the Ukraine.

And you could flood the country with Stingers and artillery, but who is going to use them at this point... Foreign fighters are leaving the country and Ukrainian losses are probably about double Russian losses. They haven't mounted a successful counter attack since phase 2 began and haven't been able to stop Russian offensives since then either (except by funneling thousands into Severodonetsk to die).
jergul
large member
Wed Jun 15 11:34:38
Seb
Not sure how accumulating western hardware in warehouses to the West of Ukraine would help Ukraine.

Ukraine needs a narrative that combines the heroism of its troops with obvious setbacks and serious losses.

Alas, stab in the back is really the only narrative that fits.

Sammy
DPR publishes loss numbers almost daily.

Pillz
Way more than 2x Russian losses. It is pretty clear Russia is using infantry only in a scouting role to find and fix Ukrainian forces. Arty deals with them thereafter.

Not that it matters. No one is going to run out of soldiers. This will end when both sides get suitably tired of fighting.

Russia will have trouble pushing far beyong luhansk and donetsk administrative boundaries. DPR and LPR have a Ukraine vibe going. They are fighting to liberate their territories as they see it. Hell, they prolly even have their own stab in the back theory about not getting enough support from Russia to back the heroism of their local forces.
Pillz
Member
Wed Jun 15 11:51:53
I think once Donbas is more or less done the sheer volume of firepower Russia can reallocate to Kherson/Zaporizhzhia/Kharkiv will be enough to continue pushing.

We'll see. I think we'll see a fairly huge breakdown in the UAF's operational capacity before summer ends anyways at this rate... Their losses are simply not sustainable, and morale is noticeably terrible on the part of foreign fighters. Dozens posting that they'll be back soon/taking time off from fighting/etc.

Usually when the foreigners up and leave things are going very poorly, if Syria is any example.
jergul
large member
Wed Jun 15 12:10:24
DPR and LPR will likely be less than enthusiastic about supplying ground troops to push deeper than say a 70km bufferzone around their provinces.

There is a logical limit to the Russian advances. But as we talked about, the attrition strategy demands incremental advances to keep the pressure, so it will have to advance in some areas regardless.
Sam Adams
Member
Wed Jun 15 12:30:51
"Way more than 2x Russian losses."

Lol
Dukhat
Member
Wed Jun 15 12:36:11
Pillz is doing what he always does. Trying to find "facts" that fit his pre-arrived conclusion. Quoting Russian news ... lol.

Fucking cucks are brain-dead.
jergul
large member
Wed Jun 15 12:48:46
Sammy
Ukrainians are saying they are outgunned 10:1 in arty. You do the math.

Dukhat
It is everyone's pre-arrived conclusion that Russian will beat Ukraine. Russia tried a coup de maine that had failed by March 30th. Now it is doing what I frankly expected from the start.

You may want to stop pretending that Russia is still driving APCs outside of townhalls expecting flowers and and handover of the city keys. It stopped that approach a while ago.
Pillz
Member
Wed Jun 15 13:06:05
Only in your imagination cuckhat.

It's not hard to get a rough idea of the tactical situation. Ukrainian online army spams twitter/4chan/reddit with ridiculous shit when Russia is making serious gains to drown out discussion/bury updates

Ukrainian updates that hold positive news are too immediate - wait 2 to 3 days the the situation to stabilize and then see where the dust settles. More often than not the result is that Ukraine was not successful/as successful as they initially claimed.

Defense in depth. When Ukrainians mount attacks on Russian positions, Russians typically fall back and allow artillery to repell the UAF. Russians then move back in typically.

When fighting is reported by either side, it typically means that Russians have scouted a position and will then spend 2-3 days shelling it before UAF forces retreat or are overrun.

When Ukraine says Russia definitely did not take a settlement, consider what evidence there is. If the two sides out right contradict each other then Russia is usually right. If Russia hasnt confirmed the capture, it's probably still contested. If Russia hasn't confirmed it but there are reports of fighting or shelling the next village over, then Russia has taken it.

UAF commanders are themselves confirming Ukrainian losses & Russian fire superiority.

For casualties, it is inconceivable their losses are equal. Russia has the unfretted ability to shell all supply lines into active theaters in Donbas, they have a 10:1 advantage in field artillery, they have air superiority, etc. They have clearly been using armour & artillery to flatten everything they can to avoid heavy fighting by infantry.

And fwiw, the Ukrainians have been posting significantly less gore of late. Almost nothing new for a few weeks. We did get a ARMA3 clip they claiming to be an airstrike though - that bodes really well.

Meanwhile Russia is now regularly releasing footage of Ukrainian infantry squads/platoons getting wiped...

What is not 'factual' about the failure of all 6? Kherson counter offensives? Or the fact that until 2 weeks ago the situation around Kharkiv was pretty poor for Russia, and now it seems to have turned slightly in their favor as they not only dismantle the units east of the city but are now also conducting offensives south, west, and north west of Izium? Like Jergul said, it'd take a few days for the rail connect to Russia to come into full effect... Now it has.

There are no signs that the Ukraine is succeeding on any level at the moment.

@jergul

I thinks that Russia is going to have very little choice but to commit its own troops to the next phase, although I imagine a lot of DPR/LPR might remain for enough money. Either way, they'll have done their job by draining the UAF of most of its experienced veterans in Donbas.
Paramount
Member
Wed Jun 15 13:11:02
Is there anything left of the Azov battalion? Does anyone know?
jergul
large member
Wed Jun 15 13:14:59
It is a brigade and it still has a recruiting office in Kiev. It will reconstitute and fight under the same franchise. Not with the same quality.
jergul
large member
Wed Jun 15 13:28:33
Pillz
Still a while off the next phase. Donetsk is a pretty big territory and the bufferzone is not insignificant.
Pillz
Member
Wed Jun 15 19:01:06
Oh definitely. I don't think they'll finish operations in Donetsk this year. But if the Ukrainian military collapses, a breakout in another oblast is likely. Like were seeing with the activity around Kharkiv.

The most reasonable assumption is that Russia moves on Zaporizhzhia before Donetsk and Kharhiv (the city) are finish. Besides they'll want to put the Ukrainians in a 'similar' situation as in Severodonetsk/Lysychansk. Control the roads on the western side of the Dnieper and force reinforcement from Dnipro (probably both sides of the river) to make it easier to target supplies. God forbid they try to use civilian craft on the river - probably a 100% loss on that..
Pillz
Member
Wed Jun 15 19:06:28
It'll also place 90% of the burden as a logicistics hub for the entire eastern front line, quite literally. A lot of extra troops and wounded people, using a lot of electricity and fuel, consuming a lot of food for the winter.

And again, just like we see with Kharhiv (the city) and Lysychansk (earlier in the offensive on Severodonetsk) and we see in Mykolaiv and Nikopol), an easy concentration of munitions and armour and fresh troops to target.

But who knows where the line breaks or where they decide to go
TheChildren
Member
Thu Jun 16 04:06:47
but...is a traaap?

trust me bro source said so.
Sam Adams
Member
Thu Jun 16 10:38:22
http://twi...?s=20&t=iKaqCxJvQf_imSBXNtfS0g

Good video of a hind getting sclonged.
Pillz
Member
Fri Jun 17 05:03:11
Lol @ sam

Ukraine claims they're able to fire 7000 artillery shells a day, Russia is firing 75,000.

I'm sure losses are equal

Sam Adams
Member
Fri Jun 17 09:39:53
Ammount of artillery is the only thing that matters on a battlefield? Lol.
Sam Adams
Member
Fri Jun 17 09:41:12
http://twi...?s=20&t=xIOzc0OJo0RLG0-S-sYAnQ

Video of russians hiding one of their supply trains behind civilians by attaching civilian cars.
Dukhat
Member
Fri Jun 17 10:01:48
Russia is basically North Korea at this point. Taking all this old shit out of mothballs. And truth-be-told, old artillery is still very good. Not like old ordinance is any worse than the new stuff when it comes to blowing shit up.

That being said, the West is beginning to want to sue for peace because Western consumers don't want to keep paying an extra $2 at the pump. Any government, left or right, in the west is going to lose if oil prices are still this high in a year.
jergul
large member
Fri Jun 17 10:40:38
Sammy
What? Not how it works. That is clearly a military transport train. Its not like you paint civilian contracted aircraft either when doing major force surges abroad.

Russia has an overwhelming superiority in everything that kills people statistically in high intensity conflicts.
Sam Adams
Member
Fri Jun 17 11:41:44
"Russia has an overwhelming superiority in everything that kills people statistically in high intensity conflicts."

Lol. This must be why they retreated from karkiv, kiev, and are now pooring all their logistics into advancing slowly along a tiny fraction of the front. Must be that "overwhelming superiority".

Lulz. Baghdad jergul strikes again.
nhill
Member
Fri Jun 17 11:42:31
>Baghdad jergul

What's the root of this moniker?
Sam Adams
Member
Fri Jun 17 12:58:39
There was an iraqi spokesman called baghdad bob that insisted they were winning, that saddam was personally leading the republican guard in a heroic defense of baghdad.

Jergul usually bahaves in a simular fashion regarding soviet bloc military prowess.
nhill
Member
Fri Jun 17 13:02:38
Ohhh yeah I remember good old baghdad bob now, hehe. Good times.
McKobb
Member
Fri Jun 17 13:45:59
The Weakness of the Despot

https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/stephen-kotkin-putin-russia-ukraine-stalin
McKobb
Member
Fri Jun 17 13:46:27
http://www...in-putin-russia-ukraine-stalin
jergul
large member
Fri Jun 17 15:07:05
Nhill
I told them Afghanistand is unconqurable and Iraq would go to hell, that something was wrong in Abu Graib etc.

Sammy never forgave me for being right. He was in his if only we had the Missouri mode that decade.

Yah, a battleship would have changed everything. Lol.

Turns up every time I point out team sammy is having trouble.

Sammy
Try to keep up. Russia tried a coup de main when it though APCs driving up to town halls would be welcomed with flowers and the city keys.

That failed. Russia changed the game. Now Ukraine is in serious trouble.
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