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Utopia Talk / Politics / Crypto Bloodbath Corner
nhill
Member
Mon Jun 13 10:28:27
prev thread http://uto...hread=90003&time=1655134056625

let the schadenfreude commence!
Habebe
Member
Mon Jun 13 11:00:06
Enter the Crisitunity.
Average Ameriacn
Member
Mon Jun 13 11:10:20
We Americans should only trust in the Dollar and not in some asian shit coins.
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Mon Jun 13 11:11:41
This is the seasons of grave dancer.
murder
Member
Mon Jun 13 11:33:49

"this is why I've stressed from the beginning to own your private keys, I warned about this exact scenario for over a year now"

Yes you have.

nhill
Member
Mon Jun 13 11:51:11
<3
nhill
Member
Mon Jun 13 11:57:33
It does appear as if the high time frame supports are holding okay today. But if traditional markets keep bleeding it'll be hard to prevent a bit of contagion. Better hope next months CPI comes in less than 8.6% otherwise we'll start looking like Venezuela
nhill
Member
Mon Jun 13 11:58:38
RIP to the people that were filing for tax extensions till October so they could lock their assets in Celsius and Anchor and farm the difference in interest for an 6 additional months
nhill
Member
Mon Jun 13 12:01:36
The gap fill at 3895 for $SPY may be the last hope for an exit ;)

Still comfy in ~80% stablecoins for now, but I did deploy a bit of capital.
nhill
Member
Mon Jun 13 12:10:27
>Btw major props to Nimatzo for spotting the bear market before me and most everyone else. Impressive call, I think it was late November when he first brought it up. Credit where credit due!

^ bringing this up again. Calling tops is the hardest thing to do in crypto and Nim nailed it. I did not. *proud tear*
murder
Member
Mon Jun 13 12:12:48

I have no idea when this was made, but it's one of the funniest things I've seen.

* not financial advice

http://twitter.com/JCOviedo6/status/1536138704259096576

nhill
Member
Mon Jun 13 12:13:24
Is that the one where he tells you to sell your house and buy Bitcoin?

If so, cringe level off the charts
nhill
Member
Mon Jun 13 12:15:48
Ok, I just let it play in the background. It's the one I was thinking about.

Oof size: XL
nhill
Member
Mon Jun 13 12:18:19
The other famously cringe Saylor video is the "there is no 2nd best".

I've listened to Saylor quite a bit over the years and he has admitted that he's basically gambling his future and legacy on Bitcoin because his software company wasn't growing anymore.
nhill
Member
Mon Jun 13 12:20:23
To be clear I think the gamble will work out, though, this is a bear market, arguably since last May (with a retest of the top in November). There will be bull markets again.

Saylor isn't liquidated completely until around $3,500 per BTC
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Mon Jun 13 12:32:44
Nhill
lol holy shit, you still remember that? It was purely on a technical basis though :) I think I was looking at the weekly BTC chart with RSI and volume. Basically we ran out of steam april last year and the new ATH early november signaled bearish divergence with low volumes. I think I had just started listening to Macro show as well so this Quad 4 was like some mythical thing in a distant future. I mean in hindsight it all makes sense in a way that it didn't back then, knowing now that crypto leads the market.

1 piece of the puzzle at a time.
nhill
Member
Mon Jun 13 12:36:31
I catalog all the things, even if sometimes it takes me a while to reassess, and that stood out. :)

How The Economic Machine Works by Ray Dalio was my aha! moment in the markets when I watched it about 8 years ago, and it's been interesting watching it all play out since then.

But you've really picked up things quickly, got a sharp mind for this, and while I may have pointed you in the right direction a few times, you did all the work :) Cheers
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Mon Jun 13 12:44:49
:,)
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Mon Jun 13 13:02:50
It's been almost a year on the day now since I made that swap to DAI that turned into a trade that turned into complete and utter degeneracy. I was completely oblivious to macro economic tends prior to meeting you, I knew as a matter of fact in hindsight. Many many thanks for pulling the curtains!
nhill
Member
Mon Jun 13 13:22:45
My pleasure!
nhill
Member
Mon Jun 13 13:45:21
$CVNA -95%
$NEGG -95%
$SKLZ -94%
$ARVL -94%
$EMBK -94%
$NVTA -94%
$PTON -93%
$HOOD -92%
$TSP -92%
$REV -92%
$FUBO -92%
$UPST -92%
$MARA -92%
$SFIX -91%
$SPCE -90%

Will Gary Gensler do something please? Stock market has bigger "scams" than crypto ;)
nhill
Member
Mon Jun 13 13:46:30
NewEgg in particular has proven to be a resilient company in various economic conditions. Would be a nice flier for like 1% of a portfolio at these prices
nhill
Member
Mon Jun 13 13:48:13
It's P/E is still pretty high even after a 95% drop tho. Would like to see another -30% from here
Habebe
Member
Mon Jun 13 14:30:21
yahoo was reporting robinhood was trading at a market cap around what their cash balance was...lol
Habebe
Member
Mon Jun 13 14:38:01
cap 6.27 billion
cash on hand 6.2


hahahahahaha
nhill
Member
Mon Jun 13 15:41:59
"nhill
Member Sat May 07 18:03:36
My $LUNA fears about the arrogant founder may start to play out here.
$UST is depegging today. I'm sure they'll fix it via arbitrage & I don't expect it to be a problem come Monday, but fresh blood has been drawn in a bear market.
But, even though this will subside and be forgotten by most, it will not be by me. IMO this is just the first cut.
Better believe there are sharks in the sea ready to break this wound open."

Who remembers me calling the whole LUNA collapse 2 days before it started? ;)
nhill
Member
Mon Jun 13 15:42:49
Habebe

I think the problem is nobody trusts them to deploy that cash in a profitable way at this point :)
murder
Member
Mon Jun 13 20:14:03

Bitcoin $21,552.50

ouch!

murder
Member
Mon Jun 13 20:50:50

Bitcoin $20,987.20

I'm starting to think that encouraging people to borrow every cent they could to buy bitcoin wasn't sound financial advice.

nhill
Member
Mon Jun 13 21:09:51
Good way to get your home liquidated though!

Looks like the first key support may be breaking, we’ll find it out soon.
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Tue Jun 14 02:58:09
Technically it wasn’t financial advice as per the careful wording that was proof read by his lawyers.

Waiting for confirmation.
McKobb
Member
Tue Jun 14 03:57:24
let it burn
murder
Member
Tue Jun 14 08:56:25

"Technically it wasn’t financial advice as per the careful wording that was proof read by his lawyers."

I'm sure that somewhere in the video was the usual disclaimer. Still, those disclaimers aren't magic. They don't override everything you say. I'd be shocked if he didn't get sued and possibly lose.

You can't just encourage people to go on a killing spree and then say "but talk to your attorney and make sure that mass murder is right for you." and think that you're in the clear.

He encouraged people to be as reckless with their money and wealth as you can possibly be short of setting it all on fire.
nhill
Member
Tue Jun 14 09:56:13
murder, Bitcoin is a commodity, not a security. he can legally say whatever he wants about it
nhill
Member
Tue Jun 14 09:56:34
no different that you trying to convince people to sell their house to buy wheat. may be dumb, but completely legal
Habebe
Member
Tue Jun 14 10:12:19
You can't be responsible for ppl making reckless choices, even if you encouraged it.

That said, you cant huge an investment by its drops alone.There is no evidence that it won't go back up. It shouldn't effect your income to live on because your investments went down.

My aunt was half freaking out yesterday because she lost 20k in the market. I reccomend they buy I bonds.for a safe nest egg and re assured her markets go down beforwnthey go up.
Habebe
Member
Tue Jun 14 10:13:29
Huge= gauge an investment*

The rest os typical Habebe type.
murder
Member
Tue Jun 14 10:22:53

"You can't be responsible for ppl making reckless choices, even if you encouraged it."

People get thrown in jail for encouraging suicide.

nhill
Member
Tue Jun 14 10:49:47
$22,000 BTC still holding as HTF support. As I said yesterday, you'll always see stabs under support (support tests, bears trying to see if it'll break).

I don't have much faith here, to be clear, but so far it's holding.
nhill
Member
Tue Jun 14 11:10:09
Celsius coin is up 800%
nhill
Member
Tue Jun 14 11:18:49
http://pbs...fCoK?format=jpg&name=4096x4096
nhill
Member
Tue Jun 14 11:21:30
That was a 2800% pump and dump, wicked.
nhill
Member
Tue Jun 14 11:23:45
My bottom predictions (going back months) were 21K BTC and 1.2K ETH.

Was already wrong on ETH, probably going to be wrong on BTC too.
nhill
Member
Tue Jun 14 11:26:08
Chainlink has been getting a relentless bid.

Thinking about adding that to my bull run shopping list, it does have a lot of bullish catalysts and is probably the most important project in the entire crypto ecosystem.

My problem with $LINK is that they sell the token regularly to fund their development, so it tends to underperform ETH.
LazyCommunist
Member
Tue Jun 14 11:30:22
Never forget that it's all a scam and nothing else!

Celsius one week ago:

http://blo...-full-speed-ahead-4123847832af

Jun 7


Over the past several weeks, the entire crypto community has faced a challenging time. Behind the numbers of this sharp downturn are the stories of real people facing real hardship. Single moms, pilots, cleaners, small business owners, students, veterans and so many in between. Everywhere crypto is held, hard-working people around the globe are constantly checking their accounts. They’re worried about the future. They’re worried about their families.

We at Celsius are online 24–7. We’re working around the clock to continue to serve our community. Celsius has one of the best risk management teams in the world. Our security team and infrastructure is second to none. We have made it through crypto downturns before (this is our fourth!). Celsius is prepared.

At this already challenging time, it’s unfortunate that vocal actors are spreading misinformation and confusion. They have tried unsuccessfully, for example, to link Celsius to the collapse of Luna and falsely claim that Celsius sustained significant losses as a result. They have stirred confusion around HODL mode and the importance of protecting user accounts. And the list goes on.

Every company faces the decision of how much time to spend swatting away false claims. We’ve decided that every minute we spend dignifying misinformation is a minute we’re not spending building for our customers so that they can achieve financial freedom. Yes, we may occasionally respond to an untrue claim. But we won’t allow smears and distortions from a handful of haters to take our time away from our customers.

Let us be clear:

Celsius identified instability in the Luna/UST peg early, and acted swiftly to protect our customers. We built a world-class risk management team for precisely this reason. Celsius’ Rodney Sunada-Wong, Chief Risk Officer, shares more here.

All instances of HODL Mode are a response to protect user accounts, and to comply with regulatory, compliance, and legal requirements. In most cases, HODL Mode can be deactivated quickly by contacting Celsius Customer Care.

Celsius continues to process withdrawals without delay. We have not had any issues meeting withdrawal requests. Celsius honors all withdrawals as quickly as possible and works hard to support customers if and when there are delays.

Celsius has the reserves (and more than enough ETH) to meet obligations, as dictated by our comprehensive liquidity risk management framework.

Despite difficult cycles in the market like we face today, we at Celsius remain deeply optimistic about the future. Celsius was not founded to make small improvements to TradFi. From day one, we sought to radically disrupt a broken system. We have worked non-stop to transform, revolutionize and build powerful tools to help everyday people all around the world attain their financial dreams. It hasn’t always been easy, but then again, what revolution was?

We believe that those partaking in crypto today are pioneers. Some choose DeFi, others NFTs or DAOs. Regardless, you are charting a bold new course towards financial freedom for humanity. The road can sometimes be difficult, but with grit and passion, we will succeed.

So, despite the downturn, despite those who spread misinformation, despite daily challenges, we are building better.

To quote a famed Civil War rear admiral, “Damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead.”
nhill
Member
Tue Jun 14 11:36:45
Celsius was paying out interest from beacon chain Ethereum rewards. You cannot remove Ethereum from the beacon chain until after the merge, so probably about 2 years from now.

There's no way they can pay back all withdrawals right now, so they locked withdrawals.

Pretty simple story. The other stuff is mostly noise.

If you don't own the private key, you don't own anything other than an IOU. This has been explained repeatedly, but I guess everybody likes a good drama ;)
nhill
Member
Tue Jun 14 11:40:44
They tried to maintain some semblance of liquidity by using Lido (a liquid staking protocol), but there isn't even close to enough to cover all deposits.
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Tue Jun 14 14:11:55
You have you Cambrian explosion and then you have your Chicxulub.
nhill
Member
Tue Jun 14 15:15:09
Indeed, that's been what we've been preparing for all along >:)
nhill
Member
Tue Jun 14 21:20:11
Well well well. The new ponzi by Tron, $USDD is losing its peg and a bank run is happening. Wonder where we’ve seen this before?
nhill
Member
Tue Jun 14 21:20:29
I’m sure it’ll recover. This time.
nhill
Member
Tue Jun 14 23:10:14
3AC insolvency. This is bad, might bring us down to 10K or lower. They control about 18 billion in capital including seed investment in Platypus. Nothing is safe to long right now
nhill
Member
Tue Jun 14 23:30:40
Support broke hard on the news. 17k next, which is where Celsius gets liquidated if they don’t post more collateral by then. Beyond that, probably 10-12K, not sure. Did not chart any demand zones that low yet. Didn’t expect it to all fall like dominoes after $LUNA. Well, this is why we stay in USDC/DAI :) going to be a hell of an opportunity

I also got rid of my USDT positions today, took a small hit converting to USDC and DAI
nhill
Member
Tue Jun 14 23:31:43
Tether may also be insolvent on a bank run
nhill
Member
Tue Jun 14 23:33:52
The only hope for a bottom left is the 3AC insolvency being either untrue or mitigated by them. Things don’t look great right now. Time for bed! Stay safe out there
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Wed Jun 15 04:03:17
It's the crash without bottom. I saw the USDD thing unfold just before bed. When it rains it pours.
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Wed Jun 15 04:43:17
These are dark times and so I have prepared a prayer.

Our lord Satoshi, Who art in the ledger, hallowed be Thy name; Thy new economic paradigm come; Thy will be done off chain as it is in on chain. Give us this day our daily green candle; and forgive us our degeneracy as we forgive those who liquidate us; and lead us not into ponzis, but deliver us from scams. Hail Satoshi, full of grace.

Amen.
nhill
Member
Wed Jun 15 09:22:27
Amen. _/\_
nhill
Member
Wed Jun 15 14:49:47
$ATOM and the IBC-eco in general (EVMOS, Osmosis, Secret, Juno, Sentinel, Akash, etc.) are other allocations I plan to have once we are back in a buyer's market. Would probably just equal weight a portfolio allocations to a few of them. Most bullish on Osmosis & Atom. EVMOS is cool but not very confident in their dev team.

Polkadot maybe? I think the $AVAX subnets trump parachains tech-wise, so it's a no from me for now. But exploring it a bit here in the lull.
nhill
Member
Wed Jun 15 14:52:45
My main problem with EVMOS other than the shitty rollout which is still not complete is how slow it is. Makes me think they haven't attracted a sufficient amount of validators to the ecosystem, as there isn't a whole lot of blockspace demand as far as I can tell. The tooling is shit there, so not been able to analyze thoroughly.
nhill
Member
Wed Jun 15 14:56:24
I still have a bit of $SCRT from last year, thought privacy DeFi was going to pick up steam around tax season. But may have been the bear market that killed that.

$DERO I'm still holding (and I mine it, too, on my CPUs). The acrylic graph architecture + privacy should give it a big advantage and the devs are very active in the GitHub. Still, they have no delivered on their roadmap, so tread carefully. But I like the tech. Not sure why "liking the tech" is considered cringe in crypto, probably because most people are just speculators.

It blows my mind that there are still only a handful, literally, of Ethereum core developers. The speculation hides how early the space truly is.
nhill
Member
Wed Jun 15 17:40:49
Color me impressed, Bitcoin broke the medium timeframe trend line. Might get up to 24K from here before dumping again.
nhill
Member
Wed Jun 15 17:50:57
http://i.imgur.com/Hkz8gOJ.png
nhill
Member
Wed Jun 15 17:51:13
^visual description
nhill
Member
Wed Jun 15 18:06:54
The other scenario I think is likely is that 20-23k will be our new crab range, just like 28K-31K was for a couple weeks.
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Thu Jun 16 08:00:08
Yea, the bottom forming is not very unlike the one in may.

Still want BTC to break the 2018 top. We are so close that seem inevitable.

But there may be a channel that will be tradable for now no lower time frames.
nhill
Member
Thu Jun 16 12:24:36
it is interesting how we go into these tight ranges until the next event takes us down to the next support level. swing traders and market makers are having a hayday
murder
Member
Thu Jun 16 13:53:47

"3AC insolvency."

Apparently now it's official.

nhill
Member
Thu Jun 16 14:14:09
The 3AC stuff is crazy. Apparently they blew 18 billion dollars trying to buy the dip in the worst macro environment in the past 12-14 years. Ooof
murder
Member
Thu Jun 16 15:13:22

The song goes ...

Catch a falling star
and put it in your pocket
Save it for a rainy day


Falling knives on the other hand are to be avoided.

nhill
Member
Thu Jun 16 16:59:58
fr fr. even more important when you're managing billions, as it's not easy to get into and out of markets with that much capital.

Reports seem to widely vary, but I've seen up at 18 billion, however, that's probably accounting for all the leverage they are using, actual capital might be closer to 1-2 billion.

We'll have to check their eulogy once it is out...
nhill
Member
Thu Jun 16 17:23:02
"Zhu Su
@zhusu
Sell half on a double and freeroll the rest is prob some of the worst financial advice widely disseminated.

You'd be much better off adding on a double, and if you don't understand why you need to think very hard about it until you do.
Sep 5, 2021·Twitter Web App"

Apparently my advice to book half on a double wasn't so bad afterall. Guy thought he was a market wizard, soon he'll be the janitor. Although I would hope he squirreled away some funds into an anonymous wallet. But at this point, all bets are off.
nhill
Member
Thu Jun 16 17:28:19
On the human side, I feel bad for them. It's not uncommon for gamblers to get greedy with leverage and blow out their stack. Happens in the Casino too.

You just would hope people managing billions wouldn't fall into the same traps. Turns out their shit stinks just like ours (except mine, I like the smell of mine).
murder
Member
Thu Jun 16 17:36:11

Normies want to be millionaires.

Millionaires want to be billionaires.

Billionaires want to be Jeff Bezos.

Jeff Bezos wants to be Elon Musk.

Elon Musk wants Mars.

nhill
Member
Thu Jun 16 17:42:57
Never ending rat race innit. I stay happy with my low 7 figures and the low 6 figures it generates in income to keep us able to live without the stress of a mandatory job. My only financial goal was and is freedom, the excess I'll leave to the rest.
nhill
Member
Thu Jun 16 18:36:05
http://cryptohayes.medium.com/floaters-1085be6d6ffd

new hayes drop
murder
Member
Fri Jun 17 11:32:13

The Block @TheBlock__

BREAKING: Babel Finance suspends withdrawals, citing ‘unusual liquidity pressures’

http://twitter.com/TheBlock__/status/1537756885343997952

"We apologize sincerely for the inconvenience caused to customers."

We apologize for the inconvenience of stealing your money. lol :o)

nhill
Member
Fri Jun 17 11:35:05
If you check the terms and conditions, most of these services never took anyone's money. They borrowed it as an unsecured loan. Part of the risk of giving someone an unsecured loan is a default.

So, while shady, they are operating within the bounds of their terms. Won't stop the inevitable class actions.

But the real lesson here is that you shouldn't give away your money without knowing where it is going.
nhill
Member
Fri Jun 17 11:37:52
Reason #10000 why Decentralized Finance is superior to our current system, in concept. Of course, you have to deal with hacks and rugs right now, so it's not in its ideal state. However, there are insurance protocols maturing that reduce the counterparty risks.

And like everything in this beautiful crypto ecosystem, people will build another layer of DeFi that combines both the insurance and the underlying product, effectively shielding users from the counterparty risks of hacks & rugs.

It's happening before our very eyes :)
nhill
Member
Fri Jun 17 11:39:23
I mentioned it in the other thread, but crypto doesn't have its "anti-virus" software yet. Remember in the 90s before anti-virus was mainstream and people got hacked from shit like excel spreadsheets and zip files? We're there.

Simple problem to solve. Makes me even more bullish.
nhill
Member
Fri Jun 17 11:43:49
Simple != easy, btw. It's a simple problem that will be very difficult to solve. :)
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Sat Jun 18 02:49:59
Knife is still falling.
murder
Member
Sat Jun 18 05:02:59

Did something new happen?

TheChildren
Member
Sat Jun 18 05:19:24
hello darkness ur old friend.

thats what happen.

them crypto boyz r gettin annihilated.
murder
Member
Sat Jun 18 05:27:36

They are if they bought at the top and are still hodling.



Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Sat Jun 18 05:33:16
murder
BTC broke down through 2017 ATH.
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Sat Jun 18 05:46:38
Anyone getting rekt now, when signals of crashy market was being flagged in december is an idiot. This is the reason that if you were to take money from the rich and give it to the poor, it will all flow back to the rich people again. Because people are stupid and do not listen and learn.
nhill
Member
Sat Jun 18 12:18:59
I’m just waiting for cheaper prices, looks like 10-12k are in the cards. Gotta flush 3ACs liquidity down the toilet.
nhill
Member
Sat Jun 18 12:31:24
In 2015 it went 40% under ATH, but the macro wasn’t nearly this bad
Habebe
Member
Sat Jun 18 13:58:48
ETH broke 1k now @$937.
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Sat Jun 18 14:33:48
I don't know what to believe anymore, is sub 10k in play? Will Saylor get liquidated?
Habebe
Member
Sat Jun 18 14:42:20
Some of the technical/chart traders I follow have been estimating support @18.4, but think under 10k is likely in the coming weeks.

Take that for what you will.
TheChildren
Member
Sat Jun 18 15:53:06
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wtfoRESVir0
nhill
Member
Sun Jun 19 14:10:14
“BREAKING: FTX & Sam allegedly bailed out massive crypto companies to limit this crypto crash.”

http://mob...shi/status/1538593794127437824

I feel like this guy is just making this up but thought I’d share just in case. If 3AC did get its positions bailed out, we’ll probably see a face-ripping rally over the next couple weeks, like +40-50%. Most people stopped buying (DCA) waiting for their positions to get flushed down the toilet.

But I wouldn’t expect the rally to last much longer than that. Still think somewhere around July 4th we’ll see a big breakdown. That’s when QT will actually start to tighten things and don’t think the full deleveraging is priced into the market. Market tends to be overly optimistic after 10-12 years of monthly green candles.
nhill
Member
Sun Jun 19 14:11:57
There’s other confluence around the 4th, for example the extended traditional market closure will force people to sell in the crypto markets to reduce their risk.
nhill
Member
Sun Jun 19 14:14:26
Hope I’m wrong and the exact opposite happens. Has happened to me before. But either way, I’m sitting tight in stablecoins to see how it shakes out. Markets are down so bad you’ll not need to worry if you miss the first 50% of a trend flip.

One bright spot of being down so far is you no longer need to worry about timing a bottom :)
nhill
Member
Sun Jun 19 14:25:49
http://mobile.twitter.com/SBF_FTX/status/1538518138685464577

Seems likely this was the source. As I suspected, an unconfirmed rumor. Sam said they’d be thinking about it, that’s vastly different than it actually happening. Will dig a bit more later but I think it’s BS for now.
Habebe
Member
Sun Jun 19 15:24:37
What's the deal with LUNC? By that I mean even among nshit coins they have a pendulum range as I like to call it.

LUNC has a very unique pattern. I never sold mine because it's pointless, but it will pop between 2 set numbers like .32 -.81 ,just those two amounts and they will do this every 10 seconds.

Is that just one whale going back and forth? Ive noticed this pattern for weeks now with little variation.
murder
Member
Sun Jun 19 15:33:21
Dylan LeClair @DylanLeClair_

Absolute comedy.

@solendprotocol, a supposed “decentralized” lending protocol built on Solana has “voted” to take over a whales account with emergency powers to eliminate the chance of forced liquidation.

“Decentralized” in name only.

http://twitter.com/DylanLeClair_/status/1538539508462931970

Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Sun Jun 19 15:34:28
Apparently binance is buying up LUNA classic and burning it, or so I heard.
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