Utopia Talk / Politics / S&P in bear market

Rugian Member	Tue Jun 14 15:49:03 What a difference two years makes. Under President Trump, we had massive appreciation gains in the stock market, cheap debt, cheap gas, huge jumps in real estate values (thank you Don in particular for that one!), and stable consumer pricing. Sure some lower-class people lost their jobs due to Democrat-imposed lockdowns but whatever. The important people just got to spend a year working from home. Fast forward to the fake presidency of Joe Biden, and now inflation is skyrocketing, stock values are in the toilet, interest rates are being jacked up, gasoline is more expensive than cocaine, real estate is going sideways, materials shortages are everywhere, and long-term government spending is spiraling out of control. To say nothing about how we now have war on the European continent, the Taliban back in power in Afghanistan, and a federal government thats pushing transgender ideology in kindergartens. Do you guys miss Trump yet?
tumbleweed the wanderer	Tue Jun 14 16:58:24 "the Taliban back in power in Afghanistan" seriously?
Average Ameriacn Member	Tue Jun 14 17:15:34 MAGA!!!!! TRUMP 2024!!!!
murder Member	Tue Jun 14 18:25:47 "Do you guys miss Trump yet?" If I admitted to missing him, the Secret Service would lock me up.
nhill Member	Tue Jun 14 18:39:49 I don't miss Trump at all. I do miss having a living human being with a pulse, though. The gains in the stock market and increases in prices were because idiot Trump airdropped checks to every fking American (including me, and I didn't even want the money) so people bought a bunch of shit. Stock prices went up unsustainably along with the price of everything else. Having a coma patient in chief only made Trump's actions worse, but make no mistake, Trump and his money handouts are a big part of why we are here.
Rugian Member	Tue Jun 14 18:43:06 Thanks for the serious answer nhill.
nhill Member	Tue Jun 14 18:44:30 Sure :)
nhill Member	Tue Jun 14 18:55:56 Happy to take the bait on this one. A noble sacrifice.
murder Member	Tue Jun 14 20:19:59 http://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP?window=MAX Trying to credit Trump for the stock market is ridiculous. He inherited it and rode it. Biden was riding it too until it couldn't be ridden anymore. The party was going to be over at some point. Inflation just made popping the bubble unavoidable.
nhill Member	Tue Jun 14 20:29:45 Yes, debt cycles last 8-12 years on average. But this time around idiotic socialists thought you could just give poor people a bunch of money and they would spend it responsibly. Turns out the problem, and the reason why they are poor, is an inability to manage money. Incompetence. iPhone sales went way up though, so good for Apple. We need to stop giving handouts to people, as they end up paying for it twice on the backend (mainly out of their own stupidity because of our failure of an education system). Less money to poor people, more financial education. Modern Monetary Theory is wrong, and now we have the numbers to prove it (I wasn't sure either until we tried it, turns out it doesn't work).
nhill Member	Tue Jun 14 20:30:50 Stop giving poor people money. They're too dumb to spend it on their needs and end up asking for more. Education is the answer.
Habebe Member	Tue Jun 14 21:05:11 I think it's a smaller amount then people think , the impact of the checks. 5 trillion was spent om stimulous, IIRC only 850 billion (Only...lol) was in stim checks. Now it played a role, but mostly in just kicking the can down the road. Id rather we spent 850 billion in the US, than 50 billion in the Ukraine with zero accountability. I like the idea of financial literacy. I'm not sure how much difference it will make. I vaguely remember freakinomics looking into the long term effects of financial education, IIRC it did have an impact, but the vast majority didnt end up making better choices. But definitely this brave new world was a failed experiment, live and learn.
murder Member	Tue Jun 14 21:06:33 I don't think it was the poor pumping up Tesla and dogecoin and whatever else. http://www.google.com/finance/quote/TSLA:NASDAQ?window=5Y But yeah, that money dump turned out less than ideal. There was probably a better way to do it, but desperate times and all that.
Habebe Member	Tue Jun 14 21:14:55 Yeah, I still support the at the time handout. If your going to shutdown people's jobs, you cant just let the lights go out on them while banning them from work. Murder, I still dont get your hate of TSLA, many companies were clearly inflated in price.TSLA happens to be a popular one because has fundamental competitive advantages and clear EV dominance in an emerging field.
nhill Member	Tue Jun 14 21:22:43 It was a dumb idea and a complete failure. Give people money to support their needs, most people just blew that shit on an iPhone or a new car loan. Terrible terrible idea. Was a large component of the perfect storm we have brewing.
nhill Member	Tue Jun 14 21:23:56 Habebe, there’s something called unemployment for that. This was a simple pointless handout that people blew irresponsibly.
nhill Member	Tue Jun 14 21:27:23 We need to either educate the financially disadvantaged or stop giving them money. They only hurt themselves. And I’m not meaning the freakonomics or classical education, I mean a proper education. Teach people how debt cycles actually work, and we don’t have dumbasses blaming them on whomever got the unlucky spin and happens to be in power.
nhill Member	Tue Jun 14 21:30:30 It won’t happen though, because economics is PvP and those that have figured it out rarely want others to catch on as it’ll dilute the pool. People like Ray Dalio, who has no problem sharing his advantages in markets, are extremely rare. 99% of well-off financial educators wittingly make you poor.
nhill Member	Tue Jun 14 21:32:23 And 99% of not very well off financial educators unwittingly make you poor. Telling you shit like you can’t time the market. Lmfao
nhill Member	Tue Jun 14 21:33:20 Buffet and Munger are pieces of shit, anyone following the advice is dumb as fuck.
Habebe Member	Tue Jun 14 21:33:34 I'm not really sure what people spent the money on.Ive seen studies that seem to say it was slent mostly responsibly, but they got that data from asking people, so entirely unreliable. Could it have been better targeted? Yeah, probably. But UI wasn't equiped to handle this.Many people who needed income may not have been able to get UI or not in time. UI wasn't up to handling 40% ofnthe country being banned from work/school. I mean really if we're looking in hindsight, we just don't force shutdowns. And to my earlier point only about 17% went to poor people. We spent frivilously all around.
Habebe Member	Tue Jun 14 21:33:35 I'm not really sure what people spent the money on.Ive seen studies that seem to say it was slent mostly responsibly, but they got that data from asking people, so entirely unreliable. Could it have been better targeted? Yeah, probably. But UI wasn't equiped to handle this.Many people who needed income may not have been able to get UI or not in time. UI wasn't up to handling 40% ofnthe country being banned from work/school. I mean really if we're looking in hindsight, we just don't force shutdowns. And to my earlier point only about 17% went to poor people. We spent frivilously all around.
murder Member	Tue Jun 14 21:36:44 Aside from my distaste for hypers, carnival barkers, and huksters in general, and Elon Musk is selling half decent cars and loads and loads of hopium. He says that he's going to build Tesla into the biggest car company in the world, and his cult acts like he already has. He says they will be self-driving cars, and his cult acts like they already are. He says he's going to terraform Mars and establish a colony there, and his cult acts as if he already has. He puts a moron in a spandex suit and a helmet and claims that Tesla is going to manufacture humanoid workers and his cult acts like they are about to be released with the new iPhone. Toss in his solar panels and neural interfaces or whatever the fuck.
nhill Member	Tue Jun 14 21:37:57 Habebe Obviously you shouldn’t give money to people that were already well off. That goes without saying.
nhill Member	Tue Jun 14 21:39:34 You can be sure what people spent money on, just look at the earnings reports. None of this is controversial or disputable, it’s all numbers
Habebe Member	Tue Jun 14 21:51:58 Nhill, Agreed.Most of whom just worked from home anyway. Murder, Tesla bot was dumb. I'll give you that. He has a bad track record for hyping WAY early too. I still stand by TSLA s a solid company with unique advantages in the EV market that are near impossible for other companies to catch up anytime soon. It still can be over valued. I think speculation at times gets underappreciated though. When Blockbuster turned down the offer to buy Netflix, which company was overvalued? The one with proven sales and profits, or the one with a better idea and grasp on the near future? I actually nostalgia wise miss blockbuster, it could still work these days as a niche meme stock. Gamestop shouldn't exist, neither should AMC, but they do, largely because they are pump and dump stocks and that's offers them flexibility....im rambling now.
nhill Member	Tue Jun 14 21:54:11 Exactly. I was one of them, this was before I retired, was making abt 200K/yr but still got some money from govt. didn’t even want it because I knew it wouldn’t end well giving people money for no good reason. Is a closed system, you pay for it somewhere
Habebe Member	Tue Jun 14 22:17:22 Yeah, It would have been better to have targeted people directly effected under say 40k/yr. Or like my dad got checks, and you know it helped him, but he is on SS, so it wasn't like his income dropped. But in then grande scheme of things I think direct checks were a smaller part than many think. We paid out cash all over.We pais for murals, and green initiates and schools that didnt open anyways etc. I know I gripe about the Ukraine alot, but I would argue that's even worse, atleast here we bought Americans Tv's, there we are paying to extend the length of a losing war with zero home benefit. And some of this would have happened without covid at all, I think we just kicked the can down the road and added fuel.
Habebe Member	Tue Jun 14 22:24:03 We definitely agree on more financial literacy/discipline. Investing in education if done properly pays well. Its crazy that its easier in some places to get a loan for cultural studies degrees from 4th rate colleges than it is to get one for being trained as an electrician or welder.
nhill Member	Tue Jun 14 22:35:13 Huge fan of technical and vocational colleges, they should be completely free
earthpig GTFO HOer	Wed Jun 15 00:47:36 Rugian can no longer claim to be a fiscal or monetary conservative. Noted. "Trump is an economic genius, how could anyone else ever be as smart as him when it comes time to engineer a bubble, bla bla bla" Right --> http://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1SL One thing I'll give him credit for. There were only two possible outcomes: 1) The recession happens in his 2nd term. It's his second term, what the fuck does he care, he 'won' at being president by then. 2) The recession happens in a Dem's 1st term. Great, he poisoned the well, he wins that way too, because there are people dumb enough (see: this very thread) to blame the Dem in question, rather than the person who set it all in motion. That's the thing about psychopaths. They only care about themselves. Anyone else would have considered possibilities that didn't burn the whole thing down, but not him and his loyalists. And for the record I'm not really a Biden fan, I really don't care if anyone hates him or whatever.
murder Member	Wed Jun 15 01:18:07 I don't know anyone who is a Biden fan. Joe Biden was a stand in for "not Bernie Sanders" in the Democratic primaries, and for "not Donald Trump" in the general election. Age alone should disqualify him from holding office. He was older on inauguration day than Ronald Reagan was when his nurse led him out of the White House for the final time. That's nuts!
Y2A Member	Wed Jun 15 01:29:04 sucks for 401ks
nhill Member	Wed Jun 15 11:27:12 Lmao Rugian got earthpig too. Nice troll man
nhill Member	Wed Jun 15 12:00:24 Whoa didn't see all my posts. Got a bit drunk last night and spammed this thread. Made some real good points but a bit overboard there on the tone. Sorry bout that Habebe
Habebe Member	Wed Jun 15 12:13:41 Nhill, No need to apologize. Im not offended in anyway. We are going to differ on opinions, I still fucks with you and Ive learned more about financial matters from you than probably anyone other than myself. I disagree with murder, Jergul and Seb more often than not and I take No offense and still fucks with them. Just not Dukhat, he is a dick.
Habebe Member	Wed Jun 15 12:15:37 If anything on here I feel more comftorable to express my thoughts unfiltered than probably anywhere else online, that's why I like it here.
nhill Member	Wed Jun 15 13:10:52 Appreciate that. Agree to disagree. :) Dukhat is beyond redemption here in a lot of eyes. I'd give him a second chance if he decided to show a modicum of humanity, however, I'm not holding my breath.
nhill Member	Wed Jun 15 13:34:30 At least Rugian isn't spamming us with goatse and equivalents anymore. :') He's all grown up.
Habebe Member	Wed Jun 15 14:37:06 100% agree on Dukhat. Spamming nastiness about people's *personal lost family members*. Pretty disgusting IMHO.
Habebe Member	Thu Jun 16 13:25:23 http://www...al-finance-education-by-state/ Nhill, Seen this, and it reminded me of our discussion of financial literacy. Its a good trend.
nhill Member	Thu Jun 16 14:22:09 It's a start :) Once we get people in these courses, we can start thinking about making them more useful too.
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