Utopia Talk / Politics / Investment corner 3.0

Habebe Member	Thu Jun 16 16:26:47 Finishing up from last thread http://www...hread=89891&time=1655409052708 We were touching on swing trades and timing the market.
nhill Member	Thu Jun 16 17:07:22 Time in the market is better than timing the market when you have billions of dollars. Buffet leaves the last part out because he's had to deal with slippage since the 70s.
nhill Member	Thu Jun 16 17:09:53 It's not hard to get in and out of the markets with like 1-6 figures. Once you get to about 500K it becomes more difficult, but still doable if you're diversifying well and have the time to manage it. But before that level, and with no commissions on trading, it's not that hard to time major market cycles. We did it here, Nim selling in November, me in December. Will buy back once a strong trend resumes. The fed literally choreographs when to buy and sell.
nhill Member	Thu Jun 16 17:11:43 It also depends on your tax situation, too. You have to make sure the gains you book account for the taxable event. But you can also tax loss harvest some underperformers and maintain a semblance of equilibrium.
Habebe Member	Thu Jun 16 17:21:45 As for swing trades, I find it extremely fun and exhilarating. Right now...IDK, earlier this week I had a few picks I was following. AERC RDBX RDBXW-Im unfamiliar with warrants. AUVI All had good swings this week. AUVI , I ended up getting to be sole provider for an FDA class 2 something or other. Basically IV bandages. It dit great up to $3. Also there are several trend stocks I follow* (not invest) PIXY-Seems to pendulum between .2-.45 semi regularly. MULN (automotive)- I forget the numbers offhand, but it definitely has a decent pendulum swing that people ride. There are a few others on my radar, these stick out.They get little attention on news outlets but alot on Twitter and at times can get lots of trade volume. What I call pendulum stocks, I don't know the real term(s) but seems self explanatory, they have relativley set resistance prices and swing between them regularly.Much like some cryptos. Ive started getting better at patterns on charts a good sign on the way up seems to be Building higher lows, meaning continual dips that don't dip as low as the last one. Say on a 3-5 day pattern, you can see trend lines. That mixed with lower RSI scores, lower scores tend to signal undervalued. But even then only when volumenis way up, if you notice unusual volume (more trades) this is a good sign it will go up. I'm not really good at measuring shorts and squeezes, so for now if it has shorts over 15% I tend to stay away, assuming I used my due diligence to check that. My guess is that stocks like PIXY/MULN are heavy pump and dumps. Clearly REDBX is a meme stonk , like AMC/Gamestop. But when there is volume and charts look good, you can still make money. Is goes without saying, dont take anything I say as legit advice, I'm kind of retarded but Im learning. I figure if I can learn to profit in a Bear market, I'll be Gucci in a Bull.
nhill Member	Thu Jun 16 17:25:48 http://university.hedgeye.com/courses/university The Hedgeye resources are a good way to understand what performs well in different market conditions. It's free if you register, I believe. Definitely worth your time to get a better macro view than the usual stuff that people teach.
Habebe Member	Thu Jun 16 17:26:05 I should also point out my trades are very low, in the hundreds of dollars and many are zero via paper trades. I do try to accumulate as many freebies as possible. As long as they are worth your time.Time is valuable
nhill Member	Thu Jun 16 17:26:45 Cool that they have video content now and some sort of course structure. Used to just be a giant PDF to read. :)
Habebe Member	Thu Jun 16 17:27:36 Nhill, Ill definitely check it out and will also take any reccomendations and criticisms happily. Ive been taking on input like Johnny 5!
nhill Member	Thu Jun 16 17:30:59 Just take it slow and easy, paper trading is great. It's easy to get overwhelmed with fancy indicators and option butterfly strategies, etc. But you can get 90% of the way to becoming profitable without all that. Keep it as simple as possible. Find technical analysis tools that work for your personality, almost all bad trading comes from emotions (gotta make it all back!). So keeping your system simple and disciplined is key, over time. But in the beginning here you can overwhelm yourself with the deluge of information, then sort out what works best for you. As I did with Nim last year, I'm happy to share with you tools and strategies that have worked well for me, but you'll have to personalize it and discard stuff that doesn't work for you.
nhill Member	Thu Jun 16 17:32:22 The best thing to get a handle on early is the macro view, and Hedgeye is my preferred resource for that. It's not perfect, their head (Keith) has obvious personality flaws and such, and he tends to harp on his win and ignore his losses. But the overall approach is very sound, has worked for me.
Habebe Member	Thu Jun 16 17:34:35 Ive found dropping the bag is as tough as quitting smoking, but at times its a must. I usually wait till it's atleast on a strong up swing to mitigate the amt lost.
Habebe Member	Thu Jun 16 17:38:15 I may lose signal, 60mph winds and hale/rain...sounds and looks really bad.
nhill Member	Thu Jun 16 17:41:28 Stay safe my friend
Habebe Member	Thu Jun 16 18:47:55 Safe and fine. A little wet, came and passed (mostly)somebtree limbs down, nothing major, yard should drain quickly.
nhill Member	Thu Jun 16 19:03:32 Good to hear
OsamaIsDaWorstPresid Member	Thu Jun 16 19:18:55 u 2 r so gay
nhill Member	Thu Jun 16 19:24:44 Thank you for your continued fantasies about me being gay. I knew I was very handsome but this validates it. <3
Habebe Member	Fri Jun 17 05:26:05 If anyone is interested REV aka Revlon is one to keep an eye on today. Its filing for bankruptcy, but likely to get bought out by an Indian company of which I forget the name of. Look it up if interested. Anyway, strong chance that it will shoot to the moon so to speak, you know what to look for. IIRC it's at $1.90
Habebe Member	Fri Jun 17 05:27:55 Its up 60% Pre market. IDK, be careful. Still a good chance the news will overcome buying patterns.
Habebe Member	Fri Jun 17 05:30:45 It has 3.08 million in volume @ 6:39 AM. Resilience is the Indian company.
earthpig GTFO HOer	Fri Jun 17 10:47:46 I have a big chunk that I've kept liquid. Waiting for the right time to bust my nut and push the 'buy' button, while inflation devalues that USD. Fun game.
nhill Member	Fri Jun 17 11:41:31 Same. Aiming for mid-July to late August. Of course, this is subject to change based on macroeconomic trends. We may be heading into a multi-year recession, too early to say. My gut says the market will have bottomed before 2023 comes around, and will make new highs in 2024.
earthpig GTFO HOer	Fri Jun 17 12:32:57 Something interesting, or at least that I've found worthy of note, watching all the gurus etc promote their stock picking strategies and all that. There's 2 camps, broadly. Camp 1 is focused on company products, profitability, standard stuff. So when there was a comment about a video game company's stock looking good because they made a good video game, yeah, that. Or me talking about how my pet stock does good stuff as someone in that industry. Or grandpa saying to buy Ford because Ford makes a good automobile. All that jazz. Camp 2 is the cynical camp. They're mostly trying to follow politicians and their insider buying based on gov't contracts about to be handed out. One interesting thing to glean from that latter group, that I picked up. Congresspersons are required to disclose buys/sells within 45 days. So most of them do it on like day 40 or 43. Nancy Pelosi does it within 48 hours typically, meaning you can actually get the information fast enough to potentially act on it, before the insider information becomes non-insider info and gets baked into share prices. Has anyone *really* done the deep dive into camp 2 and that approach?
nhill Member	Fri Jun 17 12:39:23 Yeah, there's a Pelosi ETF tracker: http://unusualwhales.com/etfs This unusual whales guy does a ton of in-depth analysis on Twitter, too. Pelosi's husband is a legendary trader, she doesn't do anything herself.
nhill Member	Fri Jun 17 12:41:41 Credit to Habebe for showing us that "ETF" tracker
earthpig GTFO HOer	Fri Jun 17 12:43:35 That things makes "short cramer" look good (have come across the memes/jokes previously), but of course with the market imploding, anything "short" gets an automatic boost.
nhill Member	Fri Jun 17 12:49:05 Cramer isn't actually as bad as people think on a long enough timeframe. Like you said, anybody that's usually bullish is doing bad right now. It's just funny because he's the most hilariously wrong on his highest conviction positions. His overall track record isn't bad, tho, going back 20+ years.
Habebe Member	Fri Jun 17 12:53:07 *bathing in my credit* lol Unusual Whales is great. The man does his due diligence. It seems Pelosi is down alot ATM. Conspiracy theorists would say it comes around when they are throwing around anti trading bills. But inverse Cramer still holds up....im dying. Also Revlon definitely took off today, closing at 1.95 yesterdays close and now sitting around 3.8. RDBX has floundered.Mayve Tuesday it willnstage a comeback.3 day weekend may kill any momentum, not sure. SOUN made a comeback today. I hadn't taken a position because I didnt time it. I thought it would come back to the 5-6 range atleast it was in the $2 range which is very low. But admittedly my thinking was Id be holding a bag so I didnt pay much attention.
nhill Member	Fri Jun 17 12:55:16 Habebe, if you have a TradingView account you can set alerts that notify you at interesting price points. I've found it pretty useful, just set the alerts at prices you'd like to see and forget it. Maybe they'll hit, maybe they wont.
nhill Member	Fri Jun 17 12:56:08 TradingView is free, no need to pay for it unless you want split panes and more indicators at the same time. Is my favorite tool for market tracking.
Habebe Member	Fri Jun 17 12:58:32 Nhill, I do actually have an account.Ill checknit out. I got it when I was using that MF/RSI tool. When looking at Pelosis options , they may looknbad ATM, but pay off by the time they expire.
nhill Member	Fri Jun 17 13:30:30 Yeah options are pretty volatile. Can easily eat at 50-90% loss marked to the market while still winning on the trade. Hence why people only use options for like 4% of their portfolio on average. There are option strategies where you can minimize the volatility, but, of course, that minimizes your upside, too. 100% option portfolios are viable but a lot of complexity. Gotta know your greeks if you go that route. Wouldn't recommend it, personally, unless you want a full-time job of this.
Habebe Member	Fri Jun 17 13:46:03 I'm not comftorable enough with options yet. Maybe its just webull, and Ive only dome paper trades for them, but it seems like the info I want, I only get after the trade is confirmed, Im probably just not using it right.
nhill Member	Fri Jun 17 14:48:18 Good to get your feet wet with options. Helps you understand volatility more intimately.
Habebe Member	Fri Jun 17 14:55:22 Delta theta is still all heiroglyphics to me.
Habebe Member	Fri Jun 17 14:58:05 Like I get the gist that between dates X and Y anything above the break even price is good for a single call option. And the opposite for a put. Calls seem more me though. Is a warrant similar to an option? They ate new to me as well.
Habebe Member	Fri Jun 17 14:59:10 Star's are pretty cool for swings too.
nhill Member	Fri Jun 17 15:04:32 Warrants are similar to options in that they guarantee you can buy or sell stock at a certain price in the future. The main difference is that companies issue warrants directly to raise capital, whereas options are underwritten by the market. Warrants are pretty rare for retail investors, but brokers like Schwab sometimes offer them on the open market. You'd usually be better off buying an option if you want to trade, though, as they have deeper liquidity. But for long term investment warrants are fine.
nhill Member	Fri Jun 17 15:06:23 The only time I've purchased warrants were when that was the only offering on the market. SPACs sometimes issue warrants instead of shares.
Habebe Member	Fri Jun 17 15:08:24 The only one Ive encountered was Redbox.
Habebe Member	Sat Jun 18 00:27:33 Something to check into, possible* investment. Tiktok was found being used to spy on USians. Politically this seems a lock. Trumpers have been wanting Tiktok banned, Silicon Valley is probably on board and all sides can take this as an east PR win. Biden should jump at the chance to look like he is doing something. Enter "Lomotif" the US answer to Tip top owned by acquisition company $BBIG aka Vinci Ventures from PA. Currently trading around $2.2, I'm not sure of there normal price range, again just pointing it out, do your own due diligence before you invest. My guess is even on speculation Tuesday, this could jump. http://www...-companys-tiktok-like-app/amp/ This is from January, bit it gives app info.
Habebe Member	Sat Jun 18 00:29:57 http://www...essed-us-user-data-report/amp/ Story about the leakes audio from tiktok meetings. Don't trust China, chima is asshole.
Habebe Member	Sat Jun 18 13:22:10 http://influencermarketinghub.com/tiktok-alternatives/ Here are other Tiktok like apps, there is alot. Who will replace it? IDK, gonna keep an eye out on what's getting DL
Habebe Member	Sun Jun 19 20:25:33 Mreo is a medical company, already has a history of working with Astrazeneca , they are in talks to "merge" as they are calling it, sort of a buy out. Anyway its already up, closed at 1.3, AM jumped to 1.9. AZ is looking to buy supposedly*** at $4. Options 2.5 SP selling for .2, not sure how worth it it is. Even if it goes to $4 profit is $90 if my math is correct, it likley will go up, a little short of $4. But there is also an Indian company bidding potentially.
Habebe Member	Sun Jun 19 20:26:18 Alot of hype that RDBX will go to $20 by end of the week.Before it slumps.
Habebe Member	Tue Jun 21 03:26:31 Speaking of timing the Market, I want to track the performance of my watch list stocks MREO RDBX REV BBIG
Habebe Member	Tue Jun 21 04:02:44 I missed valneva, pfizer bought 8% in it and is partneringnfor a lyme disease vaccine.
Habebe Member	Wed Jun 22 03:18:49 MREO is dipping down, probably good to load up on the dip. Not advice, make your own call. But its trading at 1.6 again, AZ will likley buy it out at atleast $5-$7.
Habebe Member	Wed Jun 22 03:30:06 I paper traded some Revlon options with a BE price of 3.85, its now over 8, but still waiting to try my hand at that for real yet.
Habebe Member	Wed Jun 22 12:14:14 Meh, It's still up above my buy in.(MREO) But WTF Revlon. STILL rising!
nhill Member	Wed Jun 22 12:39:41 Nice work :) I'm not buying or selling anything at the moment, but I appreciate the recommendations. Sounds like you're having some fun. ;)
Habebe Member	Wed Jun 22 13:17:27 Always :) RDBX dropped enough to trigger an SSR, so hopefully it will pop a bit by tommorow. I get they can still short it, but its more of a pain the ass.
Habebe Member	Wed Jun 22 13:24:58 I have re aligned my plan recently. Basically I'm swing trading until a Bull market comes back and I can probably go more passive. So Im stearing away from longer term investments and aiming shorter bursts, just not really day trades so maybe a few days to 2 weeks ish.
Habebe Member	Thu Jun 23 04:41:51 Pro cramer ETF -31% Inverse Cramer +13% Congress -4% Pelosi -8% Inverse Cramer always wins. Apparently he is compiling back old data and the evidence is clear, Cramer has been picking shitbags for years.
nhill Member	Thu Jun 23 08:36:01 http://jor.pm-research.com/content/6/1/45 He's been studied before, has a 4% annualized return. He's not beating the market (S&P500 is 7% annualized) but most people and funds don't beat the market.
Habebe Member	Sun Jul 10 23:06:31 So Roe V Wade is has been good business for some. Evfm Agrx Endp All trading pretty low yet. AGRX dipped down to .68 Friday, and I jumped in. These companies all sell contraception stuffs.Volume has been really good too. For AGRX Id say anything under .72 is a good buy. I didnt go all in, I want to watch for any big dips and I'll play it by ear.
Habebe Member	Mon Jul 11 06:28:29 Good news is that they all are slightly dipping in the pre market. Generally decent volume and buzz. The dip the PreM has always been good for me. Going up in the PM usually means bad news, rare exceptions. I think these will all run all week.
Habebe Member	Mon Jul 11 06:58:53 AGRX was the first to dip, and it's now up to .73 ENDP dipped down to .58 and I bought in. Let's hope my due diligence pays off.
Habebe Member	Mon Jul 11 07:09:15 Now , some rumors are that ENDP os filing bankruptcy. But those same rumours are also saying it's in for a run before it announces and then it will drop. No verification of this. Also, oddly enough bankruptcy gas often been great for stock prices....wierd market.
Habebe Member	Mon Jul 11 07:10:35 Also, still holding out for an AZ buy out of MEREO. How fucking long does it take? Was that just a trick to boost stock price so it wouldn't get delisted?
Habebe Member	Mon Jul 11 07:17:13 I didn't jump in EVFM because its already like $1.6, I don't see it jumping a huge amount more. Aiming for the % growth. Also just to point out how my earlier trade of SOUN that Nhill warned me about was heavily a limited boutnof luck/good news. I ended up with a great trade, making like 70% or so by selling @ over $7, its.been staying in the $2-3 range. He was definitely right to give warnings and my insight was limited, it was good luck off of really good news (multuppe.new long term contracts) that didn't pan out in the medium term, luckily I wasn't a greedy hodler. Back to swinging for the week.
Habebe Member	Mon Jul 11 07:21:13 AGRX just got its price value increased by if wainright to $5. My .68 buy in is looking good.
Habebe Member	Mon Jul 11 10:16:55 Damn, rough day all around. As was to be expected. Still think these are good week long swings.AGRX is forming higher lows, might jump a little after lunch. Its about flat yet.
Habebe Member	Mon Jul 11 15:23:24 Endp dropped...a fair bit. AGRX spiked and dropped back down, but still always above my in. MREO spiked pretry high, dropped a bit, still a fair amount higher than my in. All in all, I'm up today, but not a huge amount. Endp is dragging me back a bit, but its my smallest holding, still waiting for that AZ buyout. AZ getting good news in the EU who plans to buy more vaccinnes.So maybe they have put the BO on the back burner while while that got haggled out.IDK.
nhill Member	Tue Jul 12 15:51:55 Looks like the market sold off at close in anticipation of higher than expected inflation numbers tomorrow. Supposedly the report got linked but it also may be fabricated because it didn't update the graphs from last months report. Or perhaps a pre-release draft from an intern? Tomorrow may be ugly as it showed a 1.7% MoM increase. Who knows if real tho.
nhill Member	Tue Jul 12 15:52:10 report got leaked*
Habebe Member	Tue Jul 12 15:56:55 Yeah, ENDP plunged, largely due to ch 11 rumors. It was the smallest of my buys, so I'm holding out on a rebound before selling.Even a dead cat bounce. AGRX still seems a good swing. IDK what's going on with MEREO, its been spiking up each day and then dropping, but its lows are getting higher and higher, still not a peep on the buy out. The macro has been rough though, I feel like Rodney Dangerfield.
Habebe Member	Tue Jul 12 16:22:39 Forex is calling it a fake leak. Fingers crossed for a good CPI tommorow. http://www...be-impacting-markets-20220712/
nhill Member	Tue Jul 12 16:40:21 Looks like a Labor Department official also confirmed it as a fake report. Fingers crossed. Clearly the market is anticipating ugly, so a positive surprise could cause a mini rally. Housing prices have been dipping so that could be a good sign, but pretty sure CPI only accounts for rent (naturally). Rental prices don't seem to be dipping yet in the areas I frequent, may take a few more months for it all to propagate. The catch is that mortgage rates are so high now that rents may not dip as much as the actual housing prices. tl;dr, I don't think inflation is going to be good tomorrow, but should peak here soon.
Habebe Member	Tue Jul 12 16:46:43 "Clearly the market is anticipating ugly, so a positive surprise could cause a mini rally." That's the hope.But prepared for more shit. There was a poll I seen, they said under 30 yrs old 0% said the economy was great. 0%!! Like damn, you would think there would be 1 or 2 outliers atleast.
nhill Member	Tue Jul 12 20:17:13 The economy magically falls apart ever 10-15 years and people keep thinking it's unique and not a designed pattern. Definite lack of education there, because information on debt cycles isn't exactly hidden esoteric knowledge.
Habebe Member	Tue Jul 12 20:38:50 Yeah, I think kicking the can down the road with QE and the pandemic leftovers helped make this one particularly shitty. I seen an article saying the US bond market is the worst since 1788! Like before we had a US treasury. Ita kind of funny.
Habebe Member	Tue Jul 12 23:46:41 Im looking at bro in the 19k and slightly* on the rise. And all I can think is how the CPI/Market sentiment will play on that. Even if inflation stays flat I think it will be a positive sentiment. That's what happened last time. But if its worse....oi vey. Either way it will be ahort lived and revert to general bear marketetry. But I could use a rising tide.
Habebe Member	Thu Jul 14 20:30:34 Mereo has been up again, I'm at +19%, gonna lock in the profit and buy in again when it sinks. AGRX down, but up again. ENDP same^ KERN Ive been watching, but missed out. It could still jump a bit, IDK, warrants were up over 100%. On the news that NY passing MJ law changes. XELA still up a little, should jump the next green day.
LazyCommunist Member	Fri Jul 15 07:26:14 It's a scam http://giz...o-bitcoin-price-cel-1849181797 Celsius, the crypto trading platform that halted all withdrawals a month ago and filed for bankruptcy yesterday, has a $1.2 billion sized hole in its balance sheet, according to a bankruptcy filing and new report from the Financial Times. What does that mean for users? You’re probably not getting all your money back, if you see some at all. Celsius lists $5.5 billion of liabilities in its bankruptcy filing, $4.7 billion of which is owed to Celsius users. The problem is that Celsius lists just $4.3 billion of assets, many of it illiquid, and that’s even assuming those have been calculated properly. A large part of Celsius’s holdings is in its own crypto token, also known as Celsius, which has taken a nosedive in the past year. And roughly $1 billion of assets are tied up in the company’s bitcoin mining center.
Habebe Member	Fri Jul 15 08:18:04 Nhill/Nimatzo I cant tell you how good it was since I fell asleep before I got far, but freakinomics has a 4 part mini series on crypto that seemed interesting. Me falling asleep to it isn't any guage, as I out it on to fall asleep to (I podcasts for that) http://fre...h-mean-the-blockchain-is-over/ They explain things pretty well usually, so even murder/Lazy commie might like it.
Habebe Member	Fri Jul 15 08:20:10 Im loaded up today. XELA AGRX Endp MEREO Mereo, hoping it spikes I will try to lock in some profit.But I want back in, in case buy out news comes.Am I waiting too long for that news? 3 weeks now!
Habebe Member	Fri Jul 15 08:22:20 If it follows pattern, MEREO will jump up to 1.66-1.7+, depends on the macro a bit, its been a blood bath lately so a mild green recovery day wouldn't be out of question.
Habebe Member	Fri Jul 15 09:31:44 Damn, my group alerted on USEA and I didn't pay attention. Up 200% today on an acquisition of some oil tankers.
Habebe Member	Fri Jul 15 13:46:59 Woot woot MEREO followed the pattern. I sold at 1.72 (from 1.38) I'm totally cool with a 25% gain. It did take 3 weeks, but that's because I'm hoping for the Buy out. Gonna keep the cash as cash until the Friday sell offs EOD. Play it by ear.
nhill Member	Fri Jul 15 14:36:25 Looks like an interesting podcast, thanks for sharing! I like Freakonomics Podcast when they are covering a good topic (some of the stuff they do is just uninteresting to me, like the "economics of abortion" stuff). They explain things in a way that's easy to understand. Murder/LC should listen but they'd listen with closed ears anyways. People like that just look for details that confirms their assumptions. Funny thing is, they don't even have the first clue how it all works and never will. But at least they entertain me with the troll attempts. Haters fit into my universe quite neatly, shows I'm doing something right. :)
Habebe Member	Fri Jul 15 14:46:50 Yeah, TBH, Ive become somewhat less of a fan of freakinomics since Levvit left. He has sub-podcast on the freakinomics channel now "People I mostly admire" I miss the the first few years when they would talk about cities, prostitution, crackinomics, school incentives etc. I still like it, but it's more hit or miss for me.
Habebe Member	Mon Jul 18 12:21:47 Woot woot XELA is killing it, I'm up almost 30% (27%) Selling @13.5, not losing them gains, AGRX is up 3-8% ENDP up 8% Mereo, is down, I sold at the just under the peak, way below. Where I sold now. Ive discovered a swing niche that works for me. I only buy plummets, on stocks that have a good reason to increase (news) Preferably down over 10% in one day when futures are red (avoids bear traps) Read up on the company, make sure I feel confident in its value and that I'm buying at a steep discount. It may take 2-3 weeks sometimes, Ive found I do better if I sell peaks, wait for a big pull back and buy back in. I try to stick with the same companies for a bit as I sell peaks, because I have a better feel for them.
nhill Member	Mon Jul 18 12:32:38 Good work, sounds like a decent strategy. Hope it keeps paying off! If it keeps being successful be careful about your ego. My biggest trading mistakes have always been after a good run of trades. Just stay disciplined about the sizing, and if one goes really bad don't ever feel like you have to "make it all back". Trying to "make it all back" nearly always leads to mistakes.
Habebe Member	Mon Jul 18 12:54:53 Nhill, True story. I've been really working to add in more risk management. Easing in and out. Keeping a chunk available as cash. The toughest thing was cutting bags. TSLA was a bag for me, when it peaked up a bit within its new range, I sold at a loss. I hate selling at a loss, but I figured I Could make up that loss easier in another stock, the bag holding was a mental fallacy of "sunken cost" Definitely diversify my catylysts. If one group is rallying off of Roe V Wade, thats cool, but they generally* fluctuate as a group. XELA has it's own seperate catylysts. KERN looks good to, but I didnt want to spend my $ to thin. NY has some.MJ legalization shitngoing down. For the easing, Unless Im really confident in a larger rally, I've been pulling out like this +10% sell half +20% sell another 1/4 +30% sell the last quarter I mean it varies, but for volatile penny stocks Ive been aiming at this in case it tanks, I can lock away those gains, and I'll re invest the principle on big pullbacks. Sometimes if it jumos 30% quick (XELA) I'll just sell all and rimse and repeat. And Im still only dealing in small amounts so, if I lose everything, Ill live. The markets been good for 2 days, good chance it will.be red the next 2-3. So I'll look for deals.
nhill Member	Mon Jul 18 13:28:57 There's two camps when trading: 1. If a position moves against you, start to increase the size (aka dollar cost average). Always make sure you have a good buffer to size up. 2. Set a tight invalidation (even tiny like -1%) for each trade. In my experience, #1 has worked ok, but has a large tail side risk if you keep averaging down a loser that never recovers. 2, on the other hand, can be frustrating as you book a bunch of small losses, and then see the price rally up after you got wicked out of a position. But it also makes you a much better trader as it requires a lot more precision. The theory on 2 is that even if you get stopped out 20 times in a row, that's only around a -15% loss. You can recover from a -15% loss with a +17.6% win, and negate all the last 20 losers. Back to break even. So with #2 your tail-side risk is negligible, but your win-rate on trades are going to be small. This tends to make you more careful about entering only in your perfect conditions. Which makes your trading more slow as you wait for them to coalesce. Whereas with #1 you can take a risky entry knowing you may need to average down on it. Let's map that out to a scenario: State: You have $100 to trade. Scenario: The stock goes from $100, down to $80, then up to $110 Procedure #1: 1. You buy $20 worth at $100. 2. You buy $20 worth at $95. 3. You buy $20 worth at $90. 4. You buy $20 worth at $85. 5. You buy $20 worth at $80. 6. You sell at $110. Avg Price: $90. Profit: $20. (+20%) Procedure #2: 1. You buy at $100. 2. Thesis wrong, you sell at $99. 3. You buy at $95. 4. Thesis wrong, you sell at $94.05. 5. You buy at $90. 6. Thesis wrong, you sell at $89.10. 7. You buy at $85. 8. Thesis wrong, you sell at $84.15. 9. You buy at $80. 10. Thesis right, you sell at $110.00. Amount in step 10: $96.3 Profit: $32.4 (+32.4%) As you can see, procedure #1 was a lot simpler, you could have just set the buy orders and forgot about it. #2 was more complex, but it also made you 60% more money and took on less risk. It becomes even more compelling if you look at how flexible the two strategies are. For example, let's use the same scenario except the price only went down to $90. Procedure #1: 1. You buy $20 worth at $100. 2. You buy $20 worth at $95. 3. You buy $20 worth at $90. 6. You sell at $110. Avg Price: $95. Profit: $9. (+9%) ← this is low because you only DCA 3 times in this step, so only $60 had the gains applied to it. Procedure #2: 1. You buy at $100. 2. Thesis wrong, you sell at $99.00. 3. You buy at $95. 4. Thesis wrong, you sell at $94.05. 5. You buy at $90. 6. Thesis right, you sell at $110.00. Amount in step 6: $98.05 Profit: $19.83 (+19.83%) So we see that we made 32% with strategy #2 in the first scenario and 19.8% in the second scenario. With the DCA (strategy #1) technique we made 20% in the first scenario and 15% in the second scenario. This means that the 2nd technique, counter-intuitively, can make you more money when you are wrong about the trend than the first strategy. And you see that you only lose a tiny amount each time you get it wrong. As you may tell, I prefer #2. Pros: * Forces you to become a better trader * Vastly reduced risk because you only risk 1% or less each time (or whatever you put as your invalidation percentage) * Pays off larger when right compared to DCA strategy because DCA only deploys a small buy at a time Cons * Much more difficult * Slower to enter trades
Habebe Member	Mon Jul 18 14:11:28 Sounds good, for smaller caps Id have to allow greater flexibility due to volatility. I also have the issue of being on day trade limits yet. I think if I Could grow it enough to not be It be more inclined towards 2. Ive kept a close look system so far, I'm thinking on putting more $ in as I get more comftorable. But I also have a big concern we havn't seen the bottom of the market yet.
nhill Member	Mon Jul 18 14:25:24 Yes you have to tweak the invalidation point for volatility, maybe -3% or -5% for an illiquid security, which also reduces your margin of error. So it may not always be the best idea, just have to tweak it for your style. I'll try to give you things to think about, but ultimately your risk management strategy has to be tailored to your personality, financial situation, and target market. Don't ever want to come off as an expert, I'm learning with you all. The worst thing you can do as a trader is blindly adopt a strategy of someone that either is or presents themselves as an expert. What works for them will not work for you, the vast majority of the time. Keep experimenting, learning, and tweaking. I didn't have anyone to help me other than books and courses (most of which led me wrong), so I hope I can help accelerate your journey. It took me a few years to get a high success rate.
Habebe Member	Mon Jul 18 16:22:31 Yeah, true story. I try to remember those weeks of red and flat lines before the pay days too.
Habebe Member	Mon Jul 18 21:17:21 If anyone is interested FYI Keep an eye on USEA, they bought 3 oil tankers last week and spiked. Now they are down like 50%. They have a buy out deal in place @ $3.25 for all warrants (trading is locked) Regular shares are @ 2.65 w/ AH trading. But I'm half lit after a full bottle of blueberry wine. So do your own research/verification. Seems like some easy $.
Habebe Member	Mon Jul 18 21:22:40 United Maritime (NASDAQ:USEA) shares plunged over 55% pre-market on Monday after the shipping company priced its $26M equity offering. The offering consists of 8M units, issued at $3.25 each for estimated gross proceeds of $26M. Each unit consists of one common share (or pre-funded warrant in lieu thereof) and one Class A warrant to purchase one common share, and will immediately separate upon issuance. Each Class A warrant is immediately exercisable for one common share at an exercise price of $3.25/share and will expire five years from issuance. The offering is expected to close around July 20, 2022.
Habebe Member	Tue Jul 19 02:23:39 DIS-Disney Is now officially the worst performing stock on the DOW. Yeah, the woke stuff definitely hurt, especially the brand, which they used to habe a great brand. They still have some fantastic IP, but it's all old. I like the mandalorian. As far as kids/family movies go Moana was the last great film they had. A whole bunch of shitbuckets if you ask me. They had a similar problem before with After Aladin/Lion King all their good movies were made by Steve Jobs's company (Pixar?) But atleast then they could still rely on 3rd parties to make decent movies, bit it definitely gave Jobs the leverage in the relationship.
Habebe Member	Tue Jul 19 02:26:26 Also, I forget what it is but there is an ETF to directly short TSLA now.
nhill Member	Tue Jul 19 08:55:05 Hah, interesting. Don't think I've seen an inverse ETF just for shorting a single stock. Disney seems like a good long term play. They are bursting with IP, something is bound to hit eventually.
Habebe Member	Tue Jul 19 12:49:30 http://www...ingle-stock-etf-132509877.html Apparently it's pretty new product. For me, I sat the day out.Wait for things to get bloody again. USEA popped 25% the first 5 minutes and then bled out. I set a reposition point for XELA, ut I set a buy in limit @.125 Its been around .145-.15 Haf a brief 3 minute pump up .18 MEREO is down, I'll wait for lower. MF is way down, IDK that stock did alot of flat lining before. I still have small positions in ENDP and AGRX. But almost entirely cash just waiting.
Habebe Member	Tue Jul 19 14:42:26 XELA looks juicy at .12-.13 range. I know I won't see .9 again. They have good contracts, the new leadership made a good choice to sell off some property and received a 200 mill offer. Another new contract with French government pension worth 136 mil. And they have been at record lows, I remember last week plenty of ppl in the boards "Haha, another record low, just throw your money away" This could be a chance to make a HUGE profit, within the next week .20-.25 seems very reasonable. Rumours of a buyout could take it to $1, some say, IDK, ***definitely IMHO worth people doing some of there own research.*** In short they help companies/orgs make payment and record keeping more efficient, thats there job.
nhill Member	Tue Jul 19 14:48:20 Hope it works out for you! My capital is stagnant right now, not trading or investing in the bear market. Don't want to give up my capital gains taxes to start giving Uncle Sam 40% of my profits. Greedy bastards. Once the bear market it over tho, I might look to dabble in a few trades to sharpen the skills live after I book that capital gains.
Habebe Member	Tue Jul 19 15:37:09 Fair enough, I reset my buy limit to .113, set it and forget it. Massive short spike dropped XELA something fierce.
Habebe Member	Tue Jul 19 16:34:44 End
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