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Utopia Talk / Politics / Investment corner 3.0
Habebe
Member
Thu Jun 16 16:26:47
Finishing up from last thread

http://www...hread=89891&time=1655409052708

We were touching on swing trades and timing the market.
nhill
Member
Thu Jun 16 17:07:22
Time in the market is better than timing the market when you have billions of dollars.

Buffet leaves the last part out because he's had to deal with slippage since the 70s.
nhill
Member
Thu Jun 16 17:09:53
It's not hard to get in and out of the markets with like 1-6 figures. Once you get to about 500K it becomes more difficult, but still doable if you're diversifying well and have the time to manage it.

But before that level, and with no commissions on trading, it's not that hard to time major market cycles. We did it here, Nim selling in November, me in December. Will buy back once a strong trend resumes.

The fed literally choreographs when to buy and sell.
nhill
Member
Thu Jun 16 17:11:43
It also depends on your tax situation, too. You have to make sure the gains you book account for the taxable event. But you can also tax loss harvest some underperformers and maintain a semblance of equilibrium.
Habebe
Member
Thu Jun 16 17:21:45
As for swing trades, I find it extremely fun and exhilarating.

Right now...IDK, earlier this week I had a few picks I was following.

AERC
RDBX
RDBXW-Im unfamiliar with warrants.
AUVI

All had good swings this week.

AUVI , I ended up getting to be sole provider for an FDA class 2 something or other. Basically IV bandages. It dit great up to $3.

Also there are several trend stocks I follow* (not invest)

PIXY-Seems to pendulum between .2-.45 semi regularly.

MULN (automotive)- I forget the numbers offhand, but it definitely has a decent pendulum swing that people ride.

There are a few others on my radar, these stick out.They get little attention on news outlets but alot on Twitter and at times can get lots of trade volume.

What I call pendulum stocks, I don't know the real term(s) but seems self explanatory, they have relativley set resistance prices and swing between them regularly.Much like some cryptos.

Ive started getting better at patterns on charts a good sign on the way up seems to be

Building higher lows, meaning continual dips that don't dip as low as the last one. Say on a 3-5 day pattern, you can see trend lines.


That mixed with lower RSI scores, lower scores tend to signal undervalued.

But even then only when volumenis way up, if you notice unusual volume (more trades) this is a good sign it will go up.

I'm not really good at measuring shorts and squeezes, so for now if it has shorts over 15% I tend to stay away, assuming I used my due diligence to check that.

My guess is that stocks like PIXY/MULN are heavy pump and dumps.

Clearly REDBX is a meme stonk , like AMC/Gamestop. But when there is volume and charts look good, you can still make money.


Is goes without saying, dont take anything I say as legit advice, I'm kind of retarded but Im learning. I figure if I can learn to profit in a Bear market, I'll be Gucci in a Bull.
nhill
Member
Thu Jun 16 17:25:48
http://university.hedgeye.com/courses/university

The Hedgeye resources are a good way to understand what performs well in different market conditions.

It's free if you register, I believe. Definitely worth your time to get a better macro view than the usual stuff that people teach.
Habebe
Member
Thu Jun 16 17:26:05
I should also point out my trades are very low, in the hundreds of dollars and many are zero via paper trades.

I do try to accumulate as many freebies as possible. As long as they are worth your time.Time is valuable
nhill
Member
Thu Jun 16 17:26:45
Cool that they have video content now and some sort of course structure. Used to just be a giant PDF to read. :)
Habebe
Member
Thu Jun 16 17:27:36
Nhill, Ill definitely check it out and will also take any reccomendations and criticisms happily.

Ive been taking on input like Johnny 5!
nhill
Member
Thu Jun 16 17:30:59
Just take it slow and easy, paper trading is great. It's easy to get overwhelmed with fancy indicators and option butterfly strategies, etc. But you can get 90% of the way to becoming profitable without all that. Keep it as simple as possible.

Find technical analysis tools that work for your personality, almost all bad trading comes from emotions (gotta make it all back!). So keeping your system simple and disciplined is key, over time.

But in the beginning here you can overwhelm yourself with the deluge of information, then sort out what works best for you.

As I did with Nim last year, I'm happy to share with you tools and strategies that have worked well for me, but you'll have to personalize it and discard stuff that doesn't work for you.
nhill
Member
Thu Jun 16 17:32:22
The best thing to get a handle on early is the macro view, and Hedgeye is my preferred resource for that. It's not perfect, their head (Keith) has obvious personality flaws and such, and he tends to harp on his win and ignore his losses. But the overall approach is very sound, has worked for me.
Habebe
Member
Thu Jun 16 17:34:35
Ive found dropping the bag is as tough as quitting smoking, but at times its a must. I usually wait till it's atleast on a strong up swing to mitigate the amt lost.
Habebe
Member
Thu Jun 16 17:38:15
I may lose signal, 60mph winds and hale/rain...sounds and looks really bad.
nhill
Member
Thu Jun 16 17:41:28
Stay safe my friend
Habebe
Member
Thu Jun 16 18:47:55
Safe and fine. A little wet, came and passed (mostly)somebtree limbs down, nothing major, yard should drain quickly.
nhill
Member
Thu Jun 16 19:03:32
Good to hear
OsamaIsDaWorstPresid
Member
Thu Jun 16 19:18:55
u 2 r so gay
nhill
Member
Thu Jun 16 19:24:44
Thank you for your continued fantasies about me being gay. I knew I was very handsome but this validates it. <3
Habebe
Member
Fri Jun 17 05:26:05
If anyone is interested REV aka Revlon is one to keep an eye on today.

Its filing for bankruptcy, but likely to get bought out by an Indian company of which I forget the name of. Look it up if interested.

Anyway, strong chance that it will shoot to the moon so to speak, you know what to look for. IIRC it's at $1.90
Habebe
Member
Fri Jun 17 05:27:55
Its up 60% Pre market.

IDK, be careful. Still a good chance the news will overcome buying patterns.
Habebe
Member
Fri Jun 17 05:30:45
It has 3.08 million in volume @ 6:39 AM.

Resilience is the Indian company.
earthpig
GTFO HOer
Fri Jun 17 10:47:46
I have a big chunk that I've kept liquid.

Waiting for the right time to bust my nut and push the 'buy' button, while inflation devalues that USD. Fun game.
nhill
Member
Fri Jun 17 11:41:31
Same. Aiming for mid-July to late August.

Of course, this is subject to change based on macroeconomic trends. We may be heading into a multi-year recession, too early to say. My gut says the market will have bottomed before 2023 comes around, and will make new highs in 2024.
earthpig
GTFO HOer
Fri Jun 17 12:32:57
Something interesting, or at least that I've found worthy of note, watching all the gurus etc promote their stock picking strategies and all that.

There's 2 camps, broadly.

Camp 1 is focused on company products, profitability, standard stuff. So when there was a comment about a video game company's stock looking good because they made a good video game, yeah, that. Or me talking about how my pet stock does good stuff as someone in that industry. Or grandpa saying to buy Ford because Ford makes a good automobile. All that jazz.

Camp 2 is the cynical camp. They're mostly trying to follow politicians and their insider buying based on gov't contracts about to be handed out.

One interesting thing to glean from that latter group, that I picked up.

Congresspersons are required to disclose buys/sells within 45 days. So most of them do it on like day 40 or 43.

Nancy Pelosi does it within 48 hours typically, meaning you can actually get the information fast enough to potentially act on it, before the insider information becomes non-insider info and gets baked into share prices.

Has anyone *really* done the deep dive into camp 2 and that approach?
nhill
Member
Fri Jun 17 12:39:23
Yeah, there's a Pelosi ETF tracker:

http://unusualwhales.com/etfs

This unusual whales guy does a ton of in-depth analysis on Twitter, too.

Pelosi's husband is a legendary trader, she doesn't do anything herself.
nhill
Member
Fri Jun 17 12:41:41
Credit to Habebe for showing us that "ETF" tracker
earthpig
GTFO HOer
Fri Jun 17 12:43:35
That things makes "short cramer" look good (have come across the memes/jokes previously), but of course with the market imploding, anything "short" gets an automatic boost.
nhill
Member
Fri Jun 17 12:49:05
Cramer isn't actually as bad as people think on a long enough timeframe. Like you said, anybody that's usually bullish is doing bad right now.

It's just funny because he's the most hilariously wrong on his highest conviction positions. His overall track record isn't bad, tho, going back 20+ years.
Habebe
Member
Fri Jun 17 12:53:07
*bathing in my credit* lol

Unusual Whales is great. The man does his due diligence.

It seems Pelosi is down alot ATM. Conspiracy theorists would say it comes around when they are throwing around anti trading bills.

But inverse Cramer still holds up....im dying.

Also Revlon definitely took off today, closing at 1.95 yesterdays close and now sitting around 3.8.

RDBX has floundered.Mayve Tuesday it willnstage a comeback.3 day weekend may kill any momentum, not sure.

SOUN made a comeback today. I hadn't taken a position because I didnt time it. I thought it would come back to the 5-6 range atleast it was in the $2 range which is very low. But admittedly my thinking was Id be holding a bag so I didnt pay much attention.
nhill
Member
Fri Jun 17 12:55:16
Habebe, if you have a TradingView account you can set alerts that notify you at interesting price points. I've found it pretty useful, just set the alerts at prices you'd like to see and forget it. Maybe they'll hit, maybe they wont.
nhill
Member
Fri Jun 17 12:56:08
TradingView is free, no need to pay for it unless you want split panes and more indicators at the same time. Is my favorite tool for market tracking.
Habebe
Member
Fri Jun 17 12:58:32
Nhill, I do actually have an account.Ill checknit out.

I got it when I was using that MF/RSI tool.

When looking at Pelosis options , they may looknbad ATM, but pay off by the time they expire.
nhill
Member
Fri Jun 17 13:30:30
Yeah options are pretty volatile. Can easily eat at 50-90% loss marked to the market while still winning on the trade. Hence why people only use options for like 4% of their portfolio on average.

There are option strategies where you can minimize the volatility, but, of course, that minimizes your upside, too. 100% option portfolios are viable but a lot of complexity. Gotta know your greeks if you go that route. Wouldn't recommend it, personally, unless you want a full-time job of this.
Habebe
Member
Fri Jun 17 13:46:03
I'm not comftorable enough with options yet.

Maybe its just webull, and Ive only dome paper trades for them, but it seems like the info I want, I only get after the trade is confirmed, Im probably just not using it right.
nhill
Member
Fri Jun 17 14:48:18
Good to get your feet wet with options. Helps you understand volatility more intimately.
Habebe
Member
Fri Jun 17 14:55:22
Delta theta is still all heiroglyphics to me.
Habebe
Member
Fri Jun 17 14:58:05
Like I get the gist that between dates X and Y anything above the break even price is good for a single call option.

And the opposite for a put. Calls seem more me though.

Is a warrant similar to an option? They ate new to me as well.
Habebe
Member
Fri Jun 17 14:59:10
Star's are pretty cool for swings too.
nhill
Member
Fri Jun 17 15:04:32
Warrants are similar to options in that they guarantee you can buy or sell stock at a certain price in the future.

The main difference is that companies issue warrants directly to raise capital, whereas options are underwritten by the market.

Warrants are pretty rare for retail investors, but brokers like Schwab sometimes offer them on the open market. You'd usually be better off buying an option if you want to trade, though, as they have deeper liquidity. But for long term investment warrants are fine.
nhill
Member
Fri Jun 17 15:06:23
The only time I've purchased warrants were when that was the only offering on the market. SPACs sometimes issue warrants instead of shares.
Habebe
Member
Fri Jun 17 15:08:24
The only one Ive encountered was Redbox.
Habebe
Member
Sat Jun 18 00:27:33
Something to check into, possible* investment.

Tiktok was found being used to spy on USians.

Politically this seems a lock. Trumpers have been wanting Tiktok banned, Silicon Valley is probably on board and all sides can take this as an east PR win. Biden should jump at the chance to look like he is doing something.

Enter "Lomotif" the US answer to Tip top owned by acquisition company $BBIG aka Vinci Ventures from PA.

Currently trading around $2.2, I'm not sure of there normal price range, again just pointing it out, do your own due diligence before you invest.

My guess is even on speculation Tuesday, this could jump.

http://www...-companys-tiktok-like-app/amp/

This is from January, bit it gives app info.
Habebe
Member
Sat Jun 18 00:29:57
http://www...essed-us-user-data-report/amp/

Story about the leakes audio from tiktok meetings.

Don't trust China, chima is asshole.
Habebe
Member
Sat Jun 18 13:22:10
http://influencermarketinghub.com/tiktok-alternatives/

Here are other Tiktok like apps, there is alot. Who will replace it?

IDK, gonna keep an eye out on what's getting DL
Habebe
Member
Sun Jun 19 20:25:33
Mreo is a medical company, already has a history of working with Astrazeneca , they are in talks to "merge" as they are calling it, sort of a buy out.

Anyway its already up, closed at 1.3, AM jumped to 1.9.

AZ is looking to buy supposedly*** at $4.

Options 2.5 SP selling for .2, not sure how worth it it is.

Even if it goes to $4 profit is $90 if my math is correct, it likley will go up, a little short of $4.

But there is also an Indian company bidding potentially.
Habebe
Member
Sun Jun 19 20:26:18
Alot of hype that RDBX will go to $20 by end of the week.Before it slumps.
Habebe
Member
Tue Jun 21 03:26:31
Speaking of timing the Market, I want to track the performance of my watch list stocks

MREO
RDBX
REV
BBIG
Habebe
Member
Tue Jun 21 04:02:44
I missed valneva, pfizer bought 8% in it and is partneringnfor a lyme disease vaccine.
Habebe
Member
Wed Jun 22 03:18:49
MREO is dipping down, probably good to load up on the dip.

Not advice, make your own call. But its trading at 1.6 again, AZ will likley buy it out at atleast $5-$7.
Habebe
Member
Wed Jun 22 03:30:06
I paper traded some Revlon options with a BE price of 3.85, its now over 8, but still waiting to try my hand at that for real yet.
Habebe
Member
Wed Jun 22 12:14:14
Meh, It's still up above my buy in.(MREO)

But WTF Revlon. STILL rising!
nhill
Member
Wed Jun 22 12:39:41
Nice work :) I'm not buying or selling anything at the moment, but I appreciate the recommendations. Sounds like you're having some fun. ;)
Habebe
Member
Wed Jun 22 13:17:27
Always :)

RDBX dropped enough to trigger an SSR, so hopefully it will pop a bit by tommorow.

I get they can still short it, but its more of a pain the ass.
Habebe
Member
Wed Jun 22 13:24:58
I have re aligned my plan recently.

Basically I'm swing trading until a Bull market comes back and I can probably go more passive.

So Im stearing away from longer term investments and aiming shorter bursts, just not really day trades so maybe a few days to 2 weeks ish.
Habebe
Member
Thu Jun 23 04:41:51
Pro cramer ETF -31%

Inverse Cramer +13%

Congress -4%

Pelosi -8%

Inverse Cramer always wins.

Apparently he is compiling back old data and the evidence is clear, Cramer has been picking shitbags for years.
nhill
Member
Thu Jun 23 08:36:01
http://jor.pm-research.com/content/6/1/45

He's been studied before, has a 4% annualized return. He's not beating the market (S&P500 is 7% annualized) but most people and funds don't beat the market.
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