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Utopia Talk / Politics / Lithuania/Russia: This can only mean war
murder
Member
Mon Jun 20 11:42:13
The Times @thetimes

Lithuania has blocked Russia from using its railways to ship coal, metals, electronics and other sanctioned goods to the military exclave of Kaliningrad

http://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1538865697442373632
Pillz
Member
Mon Jun 20 12:44:39
Ukraine his a Russian drilling platform

Russia said future strikes will target decision makers in Kiev

Lol
Pillz
Member
Mon Jun 20 12:53:52
Lulz

Entire black sea fleet is heading to Odessa. 14 missile strikes already reported.

Russia also hit the C&C center in Dnipropetrovsk yesterday. They released the names of 57 officers supposedly killed.
TheChildren
Member
Mon Jun 20 13:22:09
but...brosource said is a trap?

Pillz
Member
Mon Jun 20 13:24:37
It was. For 2500 foreign mercenaries and UAF special forces though, not the Russians.

Another American killed yesterday in Severodonetsk
TheChildren
Member
Mon Jun 20 13:59:44
fuck littlehaunia. poodle country.
earthpig
GTFO HOer
Mon Jun 20 14:24:36
Can someone find/bump the "millions of children will starve" thread?
earthpig
GTFO HOer
Mon Jun 20 14:26:27
nvm found it
Pillz
Member
Mon Jun 20 19:10:43
There is video of Ukrainian soldiers claiming that they were deregistered from the military after being sent to the front line

Can't be a casualty if they don't exist!
murder
Member
Mon Jun 20 22:22:22

"Can someone find/bump the "millions of children will starve" thread?"

Bookmarks are your friend. ;o)

Pillz
Member
Wed Jun 22 22:44:30
The Ukrainian forces at Zolote are officially trapped, about a thousand men.
Pillz
Member
Fri Jun 24 17:01:47
Footage of Ukrainians retreating and driving right off of a bridge was posted yesterday. As in, from the perspective of the soldiers retreating. They didn't know the bridge had been blown (presumably by Ukraine)

Today Russia also posted footage of the recovery of that vehicle and the bodies inside. Lulz

Russia estimates 1000 dead Ukrainian troops in the Lysychansk area, 2.5k to 3.5k wounded in just the last two days. An additional 600 were captured.

Russia released footage of a few dozen Ukrainians of the 24th mechanized brigade from Zolote who have been captured. They claim that leadership was a cluster fuck and that they'd been abandoned.

Russia also claims to have killed 200+ foreign mercenaries in airstrikes yesterday.

But good news for Ukraine, Australia is sending them 14 M113AS4s. The M113 being a design older than anything else Ukraine uses to begin with.
jergul
large member
Fri Jun 24 17:08:13
A kessel problem. Russia is pressuring Ukraine in an enclave that can be supplied with great difficulty, so the margins are small before frontline troops run out of things like diesel and potable water.

I am not sure what I think of Ukraine's shopping list. It seems based on expecting casualties will break the Russian and proxy will to fight.

I would have emphasised trucks, water purification kits and diesel train engines higher than M113s if I had been making a shopping list.
Pillz
Member
Fri Jun 24 17:28:25
What shopping list?
It's pretty evident they're getting scraps and have no say in the matter.

obaminated
Member
Fri Jun 24 17:31:58
Anyone else wonder why pillz has such a hard on for ukranian defeats?
nhill
Member
Fri Jun 24 17:46:12
My guess is he wants to be right about Russian winning after Russia's initial strategy failed miserably. :) But, funnily enough, not sure anyone here actually think Ukraine has a chance in a drawn out war.

I don't think any sane person believes Ukraine will win a prolonged conflict, but Russia's failed blitz and the disorganized fallout were clearly embarrassing for them (as I called out in the first few weeks). Hubris be like that.
obaminated
Member
Fri Jun 24 17:48:00
I believe you are correct.
nhill
Member
Fri Jun 24 17:48:26
There's also the frustration, that I share, about Ukraine being the "current thing" for the sheep to elevate. Thankfully, Pride Month killed that momentum in most circles. Curious if something new will become en vogue or if people will go back to sending thoughts and prayers to Ukraine?
murder
Member
Fri Jun 24 17:51:52

"What shopping list? It's pretty evident they're getting scraps and have no say in the matter."

Pretty much.

jergul
large member
Fri Jun 24 17:53:21
Ukraine has shopping lists. Just bad ones.
jergul
large member
Fri Jun 24 17:56:36
http://www...93-cd5e-46b6-9bfe-6b0aff4fcb48
murder
Member
Fri Jun 24 17:56:48

"I don't think any sane person believes Ukraine will win a prolonged conflict"

The length of the war has nothing to do with anything. Ukraine's suppliers decided from the start that they were not willing to help too much for fear of escalation.

Or in other words, they will help enough to bleed Russian forces, but they fully expect Ukraine to surrender separatist regions to Russia.

That will unavoidably result in a larger clusterfuck down the road, but the morons in charge are perfectly happy kicking that can down the road.

Like I said a while back, by the time this war is over the Ukrainians will hate us as much as they hate the Russians.

nhill
Member
Fri Jun 24 18:03:28
>The length of the war has nothing to do with anything.

That's true. No sane person would think they had any chance of winning if you look at their military numbers and account for the token western aid (not too much but enough to incur significant losses over time for Russia). Obviously if another country joined the fray that would change the equation.
Pillz
Member
Fri Jun 24 19:11:15
"My guess is he wants to be right about Russian winning after Russia's initial strategy failed miserably."

Hasn't got anything to do do with Russia's failed phase 1.

Pick winners, not losers Mexitard. Ukraine never had a chance.

Additionally, why would I not want to see meek American puppets and nazis btfo?

And so far the only material aid to Ukraine that has been at all impactful as been Man portable anti tank and anti air rockets. Other than that surveillance from satellite and drones.

None of these token pieces of armor or artillery or 4 days worth of shells are contributing to bleeding Russia.
jergul
large member
Fri Jun 24 19:20:36
I am curious to see how it will go now. Ukraine defence has built tall since 2014 and created numerous highly trained and well equipped brigades.

Those units are slowly fading. Will their replacements still have an qualitative edge over Russian forces and proxies.
obaminated
Member
Fri Jun 24 19:51:23
Yeah pills, its a war not a spots game so the philosophy of deciding who you want to win based on who you think you win is embarrassingly cringey and pretty try hard on your part.
Pillz
Member
Fri Jun 24 19:57:34
Except I also sided with Russia in 2014 and in Syria, and have made my anti-american geopolitical stance clear since at least the Arab spring.

I'm not picking the winner because they're the winner. But you're picking the loser and throughing your hands up in the air that people take joy in watching a failed state wage a war that America got them into.
Pillz
Member
Fri Jun 24 19:58:02
*throwing
Pillz
Member
Fri Jun 24 20:03:35
Additionally, you're picking the loser because of some blind allegiance to US foreign policy. I can't fathom why you or Sam are so in love with getting fucked in the ass by your own government. But by all means continue to blindly support losers as you create new enemies for yourselves to keep funding billion dollar foreign expenditions to countries that dont want you there and creating massive economic problems for your European allies..

Pillz
Member
Fri Jun 24 20:26:55
Also w/ regards to Lysychansk/Zolote situation:

Early in June Russia estimated there were about 3k troops in Hirsch/Zolote.

They've spent the last 2 weeks cutting the area off by road and encircling it with a considerable # of troops to conduct recon & skirmishes and a lot of artillery dedicated to cleaning up whatever they find.

As the pocket is now eliminated and the area between Hirshe and Lysychansk under Russian control, that's a lot of manpower and artillery freed up for the siege of Lysychansk as well as rails & highways all the way to the city itself.

Russia is destroying road & rail infrastructure on the city limits, got a 2 for 1 today and dropped a highway exit overpass onto train tracks.

They estimate 10k soldiers from in Lysychansk and across the water in Severodonetsk.

Theyre in the same situation as the Zolote pocket was. Same situation that Severodonetsk was in.

And up until down we can all agree that Ukriane benefitted from holding the south side of the river. We're weeks away from them being cornered against it.
jergul
large member
Fri Jun 24 21:28:07
I am of the opinion that battles of maneuvre are coincidental.

Russia is trying to create challenging logistics and degrade Ukrainian forces at concentrated points to keep it from improving the quality and quantity of Ukrainian forces overall.

The recent advance is from degraded Ukrainian weakness more than Russian strength. Russia would have been equally as happy to degrade even more Ukrainian forces along the same line of contact.

Ukraine seems merely to have suffered a logistical meltdown that lead Russian recon in force pushes to advance less than 10 km and create a small pocket it then shut.
jergul
large member
Fri Jun 24 21:32:37
It would follow that the interesting advances are along the edges of the enclave as Russia expands a funnel Ukraine can run forces and logistics through to be engaged under challenging circumstances.

So pushes in the south of bakhmut and north of sloviansk. Those are the advances creating conditions on the ground for Ukrainian losses over the next few months.
jergul
large member
Fri Jun 24 21:36:42
The pacing in the actual funnel seems to be Ukraine can hold for about two weeks before something breaks and Russia makes signficant, but incremental advances. So now we are just after a breaking point. Ukraine will reassemble under Russian pressure and re-establish something that will hold for a couple weeks.

Rinse-repeat.
Pillz
Member
Fri Jun 24 22:12:10
That's fair. And a key reason why they're unable to mount effective offensives. They don't have the logistical coordination to feed one.
murder
Member
Sat Jun 25 07:18:23

"And so far the only material aid to Ukraine that has been at all impactful as been Man portable anti tank and anti air rockets. Other than that surveillance from satellite and drones."

There's a good reason for that. They are outnumbered and outgunned. Hit and run, ambushes, and catching stray forces while they nap was always going to be Ukraine's best tactics. Stand in place and trading fire with the Russians was always going to be a fool's errand for them.

jergul
large member
Sat Jun 25 08:44:02
Murder
Except they are not outnumbered or outgunned. Ukraine has far more manpower and weaponry in country. Something like 7:1 in manpower and 3:1 in equipment.

It just has crap logistics, cannot use its airforce effectively, has lost its navy and with most of the equipment in shitty repair, and is running out of ammo and fuel.

It built tall to outfight donbas irregulars in low intensity battles. It is tasked with fighting something that requires building wide.
jergul
large member
Sat Jun 25 08:44:39
had*
swordtail
Anarchist Prime
Sat Jun 25 08:47:40
stop messing with kiev kevin's reality
Pillz
Member
Sun Jun 26 02:16:44
Ukraine claims to have destroyed 50% of Russia's overall tank reserves.

In other news...

------

http://new...its-future-is-unclear-12639752
Commander of Ukrainian Elite Special Operations unit in Severodonetsk:

SKY NEWS UK reporter asks: “How many men have you lost?”

Ukrop Commander: “My unit was made up of 100% professional, trained soldiers with lots of war experience. 80% of those are now dead/injured. They are replaced by new recruits who aren’t trained.”

SKY NEWS UK reporter: “You can’t sustain those losses, can you?”

Ukrop commander: “I don’t even know how to answer that question. It’s hard.”

Ukrop combat medic says: “I see the soldiers that come here now. They are really not professional. They don’t know what to do. They are really scared. Many of Ukraine’s best soldiers are now dead. Now I treat the inexperienced replacements.”

-----

That is the AFU speaking to Sky News. That is grim, if that's the best they can say to British journalists.
jergul
large member
Sun Jun 26 02:56:36
Yah, that is what I meant about building tall. Ukraine created a military on Nato advice that can fight low intensity and expeditionary commitments with a low number of highly professional troops.

It remains to be seen how hefty a price will be paid for building tall instead of wide.
obaminated
Member
Sun Jun 26 11:15:19
History has shown that Russia doesn't care about its people. It will bleed as much as it needs to. It simply will kill all its people before it retreats. And really, putin doesn't have the option of retreating. The national embarrassment would be too much.
murder
Member
Sun Jun 26 13:01:34

They would retreat if they were made to retreat. But we have Joe Biden assisted living in the White House.

Pillz
Member
Sun Jun 26 15:02:41
"History has shown that Russia doesn't care about its people. It will bleed as much as it needs to. It simply will kill all its people before it retreats. And really, putin doesn't have the option of retreating. The national embarrassment would be too much."

Thankfully for Putin it's the Ukraine that is doing most of the bleeding
jergul
large member
Sun Jun 26 17:02:46
4k dead so far with enough of a social network to have an obit published in the internet in one form or another.

More than that killed, but not sure if people without an obit actually matter in terms of losses forcing political change. 30 from moskva and saint petersburg in that total (dead that actually matter for policy). 300 from Dagestan (the heaviest hit region).
Pillz
Member
Sun Jun 26 18:08:29
7 kaliber missiles struck Kharhiv, usually Russia launches 2 per night.

Over 50 missile & air strikes carried out across Ukraine including at kiev and lviv.

2 Ukrainian jets shot down

And in Severodonetsk, Russian forces found a crematorium filled with US and British weapons, passports, etc.

Seems like Ukrainians were cremating bodies of either foreign mercenaries or special forces 'advisors'.
Pillz
Member
Sun Jun 26 23:14:00
Lithuanian MEP Petras Austrevicius said that Lithuania plans to veto a decision by the European Commission which would put an end to his country's halting of overland trade for Russia to Kaliningrad.

Lithuania's decision has brought it to conflict with leading EU members.

And the current conflict between it and the EU highlights a larger division between Eastern and Western Europe over the conduct of the EU's role in the conflict.

As the War in Ukraine drags on, it is crucial to see whether the Western world will retain it's unity.

------

Eastern Europe is going to be awfully salty at the EU when this is over
jergul
large member
Mon Jun 27 00:03:17
Heavy guided munition production may be above Russian usage guideline limits.

Puting just promised Belorus some iskander-ms. Which suggests production levels are ok.
Pillz
Member
Mon Jun 27 01:08:10
For mexitard

http://youtu.be/e4rWfPPR-V8

Judge Napolitano with one of Trumps former security advisors.

jergul
large member
Mon Jun 27 06:55:15
"Zelensky tells G7 war should end before winter sets in - reports

Ukrainian President Zelensky has told the G7 that he wanted Russia's war in Ukraine to end before the winter sets in, according to Reuters.

Zelensky said battle conditions would make it tougher for his troops as they mount their fightback, and urged the G7 leaders to do the maximum to end the war by year's end, a source told AFP." BBC

There is definitely a timer. Things will be impossible for many civilians come winter. An exodus is likely to correspond with hyper energy prices in Europe, high general inflation, higher interest rates, a recession, and a solid migrant stream from other developing countries.

Still worth supporting Ukraine heavily for as long as it wants to fight and keeping up sanctions until some future Russian leader decides sanction relief is worth returning territory to 2013 border.

This will take decades.
jergul
large member
Mon Jun 27 06:58:23
The optics of G7 meeting in a barvarian mountain retreat are not great btw.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Berghof_(residence)
Sam Adams
Member
Mon Jun 27 14:08:56
Russia just blew up another boatload of civilians.

And are probably laughing about it.
murder
Member
Mon Jun 27 17:43:58

I'm sure they will face war crimes. ;o)

Pillz
Member
Mon Jun 27 22:21:24
Russia claims that mall is within a block of two different targets (between the two) fwiw.
murder
Member
Mon Jun 27 22:29:47

It's not worth anything.

Pillz
Member
Wed Jun 29 10:36:08
Drone footage shows that Russia didn't hit the mall directly lol

Also, Russian forces have crossed the river at Pryvillya north of Lysychansk.

Remains to be seen if they can hold the beach head, but doesn't bode well for a Ukraine.
Paramount
Member
Wed Jun 29 13:30:30
” Ukrainian President Zelensky has told the G7 that he wanted Russia's war in Ukraine to end before the winter sets in”


Well, he could end the war right now by surrendering. Why does he have to ask the G7?
Pillz
Member
Wed Jun 29 15:29:04
Russia may have taken the entire area around Pryvillya.

Leaves them within a kilometer or two of cutting off the road out of Lysychansk. One of the two routes from the road directly to Siversk is already under contention.

So the UAF is apparently fighting a rear guard action in Lysychansk while conducting an unorganized mass evacuation from the city, while their routes of escape in the north and south have been or are in the process of being cut off.

This is like 10,000 troops crumbling.
Pillz
Member
Wed Jun 29 19:44:42
Sky News story from Lysychansk is up

http://new...military-sledgehammer-12642636
jergul
large member
Thu Jun 30 14:16:09
Reports that Russia has abandoned snake island seems confirmed. Not surprising. GPS guided mrl missile saturation tactics sort of made it indefensible.
Pillz
Member
Fri Jul 01 16:22:28
Russia suggests UAF forces freed up in Odessa will partake in the next offensive in Kherson. 17th times the charm.

Also, only 1 road out of Lysychansk left. Russian positions within a kilometer of it in several locations.

Meanwhile Russia is attempting to push to Siversk, hoping that the disorganized state of the UAF forces will allow them to cut off the route of escape completely (also presumably to put more pressure on the UAF to retreat as fast and as disorderly as possible for fear of Siversk falling)
Pillz
Member
Fri Jul 01 22:04:16
Reports of fighting south of Pryvillya suggest Russia has cut off the last major road out of Lysychansk.

There remain 2 smaller roads they could use

1st is literally a dirt road and has zero cover. It is a couple hundred meters from Russian positions. I'd say it is unusable.

2nd is paved and has at least some tree cover but is again within a couple hundred meters of the Russian advance. Forces from Pryvillya are already attacking the mine the road passes through, and will probably cut it off some time today.

So 2 months of entrenchment, preparing fortifications, funnelling equipment and munitions, thousands of dead and captured, tens of thousands wounded...

And the fight for Lysychansk is over in less than a week.

Thats what winning looks like to Sam and mexitard



Pillz
Member
Wed Jul 06 14:44:39
2 of the 4 HIMARs sent to the Ukraine by America have been destroyed.
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