Utopia Talk - Politics - Chance for generational wealth coming up

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Utopia Talk / Politics / Chance for generational wealth coming up

nhill
Member Sat Jul 02 20:08:48
Is this month. Other than my fascination with crypto as a way to enable ownership and financial primitives on the web, I also enjoy winning at games. And accumulating tokens is a game to me.

The crypto market should bottom out (when $BTC hits around 12K) this month, and everyone will tell you it's dead forever. That's when you get the chance to create generational wealth by averaging into farms that pay you rewards as an incentive for providing liquidity to automated market making algorithms. Because even though crypto is probably going to not be in a bull market until the fed starts easing (prolly Q3 2023).

Anyways, I'm not here to convince you about the merits of the tech. Join the crypto threads for that (Crypto ER is the current one) debate. I'm here to win the game, same as before. Is up to you if you want to win too.

Here's the blueprint:

stSOL-BTC 20% (18.60% APR)
stNEAR-NEAR 20% (21.65% APR)
ABNBC-BNB 10% (18.43% APR)
superfluid ATOM-OSMO 20% (34% APR)
PTP 20% (provides APR for cash in the form of stablecoins)
DPX-ETH 10% (39.54% APR)

Some ground rules:

* Start averaging in after the next big leg down (crypto total market cap to ~600B), do it slowly and spread the risk.

* Plan on at least one of these getting hacked in the next 12 months (it probably won't happen because I've done well avoiding it, but plan on it anyways and don't panic if it does).

* Never make your crypto more than 10% of your overall capital/savings. And never risk more than you can afford to lose, seriously. It's not worth it. Whatever you put in the crypto market, you have to be 100% fine with it going to 0. Massive tail risks.

* Not financial advice.

These are good projects with actual revenue and demand (e.g. BNB has revenue from blockspace & security, PTP has revenue from exchange fees, DPX has revenue from derivatives, etc.). They aren't the ponzi schemes (coins with no actual product) that make up 99% of crypto projects.

Again, this aspect is merely a video game to me. I have completely separate feelings about crypto tech and the crypto MMORPG. We can talk tech in the other threads. You can watch me win here.

I'm not buying anything today, but I will this month sometime & post here when I do, and when I do, I will be buying slowly.

Opportunity has arrived. NFA

nhill
Member Sat Jul 02 20:27:11
Why now right as we're starting a recession?

Lots of reasons in my notes & I'll touch on a couple. Some are related to crypto-specific capital and liquidity that I don't have the time to explain in-depth, but, in a nutshell, 1) there's a supply shock for sellers and you can no longer effectively short the spot market anymore if you have a lot of capital.

2) Crypto leads the market, for example it started its bear market 2 months before $SPX500 did. Capital flows more freely and is able to front-run (some of this is due to lack of regulations).

3) The farming rewards pay off the most during extended price volatility (e.g. if it just goes up and down for a year the compounded rewards outperform).

4) The point is to average into the market. At least 12 equal sized buys, whether that is up or down. This smooths out the volatility, and magnifies #3

It can certainly go down much further, but it's far enough to where a solid average cost basis plan + farming rewards is the best move...SOON!

nhill
Member Sat Jul 02 20:32:46
May make small wallet, like $1000 or something, that creates this blueprint so it can be posted here publicly (& can verify it by signing message in the thread). Then you can watch me, live, turn $1000 into $10000 or more because I'm pretty good at this video game.

nhill
Member Sat Jul 02 20:36:03
If I'm wrong and we don't have a big leg down this month, well, I'll adjust accordingly to plan B. :)

Dukhat
Member Sat Jul 02 21:57:59
How can you create intergenerational wealth if you're not investing more than you can lose?

nhill
Member Sat Jul 02 22:07:14
Have a lot you can afford to lose. :P We’re in our thirties minimum… if you made six figures the past ten years and saved and compounded 20% of your income (through $SPY or something) you should have at least 6 figures to throw away by now.

If not? Well, then you can at least get to the point of being able to do it next opportunity provided you play the game and take profits next time people are manic about the market (that’s when you take profits and chill for a year).

But my thread titled means it’s a chance for generational wealth. I don’t recommend taking that chance unless you can afford it.

nhill
Member Sun Jul 03 01:10:42
If it wasn't clear, the timeframe for this is at a minimum until Q3 2023 before it starts to compound into significant digits.

LazyCommunist
Member Sun Jul 03 06:39:03
“Insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results”

Keep on entertaining me!

murder
Member Sun Jul 03 07:15:37

"Here's a bunch of financial advice" ... "* Not financial advice."

The fig leaf of every scoundrel.

Nimatzo
iChihuaha Sun Jul 03 07:51:11
The fig leaf is there to protect the stupid from predators, and declaring where the liability is. We are 1 year into this "not financial advice" theme of UP and the record is there. You don't understand because you choose to not understand.

So be it, but the most likely outcome is that we will be here 1 year from now, the prediction emerges (maybe a bit later in Q4 or earlier in Q2) and you will say the same things again.

Habebe
Member Sun Jul 03 09:57:13
It would delve into predatory when they say "sell your house and family business and buy anything"

Plus, he isnt making anything off this.

He means it when he says 10%.

nhill
Member Sun Jul 03 10:24:22
It's not financial advice because I don't know anyone's full situation here and I'm not in control of how you deal with this information. This information is the blueprint I'm using.

I'm sharing my plan and it may or may not fit into your personal situation. We're grown people here.

Financial advice would be me taking your finances and situation into account and proffering personalized advice because all financial decisions have to be made within the context of your own finances.

The 10% part is, indeed, real, and not a facetious way to reduce liability. I mean it. I've been saying for years that you should never plop more than 10% of your investments into volatile commodities (even before I got into crypto).

nhill
Member Sun Jul 03 10:40:55
The other reason it's not financial advice is I'm pretty sure only Nim and Habebe could decipher the blueprint anyways ;)

Habebe
Member Sun Jul 03 11:09:56
Yeah, I'm done arguing with haters.

Ill agree to disagree and move on with the conversation.

nhill
Member Sun Jul 03 12:29:07
Is a good approach, I’ll get there too soon

Nimatzo
iChihuaha Sun Jul 03 12:34:07
It's only murder and dukhat + alts anyway. Two of the posters who habitually, often within one post, contradict themselves or obliterate the moral high ground they have construct, with their own behavior.

nhill
Member Sun Jul 03 16:10:23
Haters gonna hate— Ima do me regardless of the ankle biting flea(s). My motives can be questioned but the track record speaks for itself. I may be wrong here, often am. Will adjust accordingly if needed.

nhill
Member Fri Jul 22 12:43:51
Still waiting for the trigger on this.

nhill
Member Fri Jul 22 12:51:15
Never forget:

http://pbs...2837666919/1585647609/1500x500

Nimatzo
iChihuaha Fri Jul 22 12:51:38
Patiently like a tiger in the tall grass.

nhill
Member Fri Jul 22 12:53:47
Btw I shared this info in the crypto thread, but my blueprint above is for non-stable tokens.

I also keep a healthy allocation of stablecoins (in the form of USDC) to take advantage of new opportunities and farming rewards on PTP.

I try to always have 20%-80% of my crypto in USDC, depending on how the market is doing.

Even in peak bull market I keep dry powder. You'll learn why if you play the game. :)

nhill
Member Fri Jul 22 12:54:11
Rawr

nhill
Member Fri Jul 22 12:57:55
We only have 9 days left in the month, so I may still be waiting for the trigger in August. But I do feel something a brewin'. If BTC reclaims 32K on the monthly close I may reconsider, but, so far, this rally hasn't changed my plans.

That said, I do have 20% of my crypto in this blueprint and it has done extremely well this month.

nhill
Member Fri Jul 22 13:03:22
$SOL: $31
$BTC: $18956
$NEAR: $3.22
$BNB: $213
$OSMO: $0.72
$ATOM: $7.9
$PTP: $0.19
$DPX: $113
$ETH: $1051

^cataloging USD value at time of posting this thread.

nhill
Member Fri Jul 22 13:06:22
$SOL: $41
$BTC: $22953
$NEAR $4.32
$OSMO: $0.97
$ATOM: $10.54
$PTP: $0.15 (had a dump after the NFT mint, expected that)
$DPX: $253
$ETH: $1561

^current prices

nhill
Member Fri Jul 22 13:12:46
$SOL: $41 (+32%)
$BTC: $22953 (+21%)
$NEAR $4.32 (+34%)
$OSMO: $0.97 (+34%)
$ATOM: $10.54 (+33%)
$PTP: $0.15 (-22%)
$DPX: $253 (+123%) yowza!
$ETH: $1561 (+48%)

w/ percentages

So total performance these past three weeks is about +38% for the non stable tokens.

Since I was 20% deployed, I increased my token values by approximately +8% with a minimal risk profile in a bear market.

But I expect those gains to be temporarily wiped out here soonish.

Habebe
Member Fri Jul 22 13:14:50
DPX more than doubled, ETH has a been rebounding well.

My macro concern is still a recession hit.

1. Housing market could throw a monkey wrench.

2. The Fed fighting inflation is kind of like Chemo, its gonna slow growth (Todays jobs report) itsnjust a matter of how much.

3. China doesn't seem likely to boost the economy, they are in bad shape. Germany's manufacturing will take a hit with energy issues too.

Those were large economic engines.

Not sure who can pick up there slack.

nhill
Member Fri Jul 22 13:20:06
Maybe FOMC next week will be the trigger? Idk. When I get a feeling about the markets it tends to happen. I don't question it much.

I didn't think this FOMC would be significant macro wise, but we'll see.

Once we get the stab down to around 600B total market cap it'll be close enough to the macro bottom for me to deploy again, FINALLY.

Been 7 months of sitting on the sidelines already.

nhill
Member Fri Jul 22 13:21:13
There's also big tech earnings next week. Might add some fuel to the fire.

But I feel something bigger.

nhill
Member Fri Jul 22 13:23:58
I remember last, early May. BTC was still around 55K. Everyone was bullish.

I posted in the crypto thread at the time that I sold everything. Something felt off, out of balance.

Similar feeling now is growing.

nhill
Member Fri Jul 22 13:25:54
last year, that is.

nhill
Member Fri Jul 22 13:27:13
But, again, I could be wrong. It's personal confluence, take it with a grain of salt.

The biggest thing to me is that if we crab around the bottom for a year or two I'm going to be farming the shit outta it and accumulating a ton of tokens.

nhill
Member Fri Jul 22 13:30:09
Habebe

I have long time horizon macro concerns. That's why I'm not touching my very conservative stock portfolio. Just getting those dividends (and handing 41% of them to Uncle Sam godddamit).

But crypto has tended to front run macro recoveries as I touched on above. The liquidity can move more freely in crypto, whereas in traditional markets the liquidity of big players flows like sludge (due to regulations, disclosures, leverage unwinds, etc.)

Nimatzo
iChihuaha Fri Jul 22 14:10:22
Been catching up on Arthur Hayes latest two essays about a looming Japanese and Euro crisis. He argues that for the alliance against Russian oil and gas to hold, the US will need to start buying Euro and Japanese bonds, since neither of these entities are able to dig themselves out of the holes they are sinking in. Winter is coming.

nhill
Member Fri Jul 22 14:18:55
Oh sweet, new Hayes drop. 8)

show deleted posts

nhill Member	Sat Jul 02 20:08:48 Is this month. Other than my fascination with crypto as a way to enable ownership and financial primitives on the web, I also enjoy winning at games. And accumulating tokens is a game to me. The crypto market should bottom out (when $BTC hits around 12K) this month, and everyone will tell you it's dead forever. That's when you get the chance to create generational wealth by averaging into farms that pay you rewards as an incentive for providing liquidity to automated market making algorithms. Because even though crypto is probably going to not be in a bull market until the fed starts easing (prolly Q3 2023). Anyways, I'm not here to convince you about the merits of the tech. Join the crypto threads for that (Crypto ER is the current one) debate. I'm here to win the game, same as before. Is up to you if you want to win too. Here's the blueprint: stSOL-BTC 20% (18.60% APR) stNEAR-NEAR 20% (21.65% APR) ABNBC-BNB 10% (18.43% APR) superfluid ATOM-OSMO 20% (34% APR) PTP 20% (provides APR for cash in the form of stablecoins) DPX-ETH 10% (39.54% APR) Some ground rules: * Start averaging in after the next big leg down (crypto total market cap to ~600B), do it slowly and spread the risk. * Plan on at least one of these getting hacked in the next 12 months (it probably won't happen because I've done well avoiding it, but plan on it anyways and don't panic if it does). * Never make your crypto more than 10% of your overall capital/savings. And never risk more than you can afford to lose, seriously. It's not worth it. Whatever you put in the crypto market, you have to be 100% fine with it going to 0. Massive tail risks. * Not financial advice. These are good projects with actual revenue and demand (e.g. BNB has revenue from blockspace & security, PTP has revenue from exchange fees, DPX has revenue from derivatives, etc.). They aren't the ponzi schemes (coins with no actual product) that make up 99% of crypto projects. Again, this aspect is merely a video game to me. I have completely separate feelings about crypto tech and the crypto MMORPG. We can talk tech in the other threads. You can watch me win here. I'm not buying anything today, but I will this month sometime & post here when I do, and when I do, I will be buying slowly. Opportunity has arrived. NFA
nhill Member	Sat Jul 02 20:27:11 Why now right as we're starting a recession? Lots of reasons in my notes & I'll touch on a couple. Some are related to crypto-specific capital and liquidity that I don't have the time to explain in-depth, but, in a nutshell, 1) there's a supply shock for sellers and you can no longer effectively short the spot market anymore if you have a lot of capital. 2) Crypto leads the market, for example it started its bear market 2 months before $SPX500 did. Capital flows more freely and is able to front-run (some of this is due to lack of regulations). 3) The farming rewards pay off the most during extended price volatility (e.g. if it just goes up and down for a year the compounded rewards outperform). 4) The point is to average into the market. At least 12 equal sized buys, whether that is up or down. This smooths out the volatility, and magnifies #3 It can certainly go down much further, but it's far enough to where a solid average cost basis plan + farming rewards is the best move...SOON!
nhill Member	Sat Jul 02 20:32:46 May make small wallet, like $1000 or something, that creates this blueprint so it can be posted here publicly (& can verify it by signing message in the thread). Then you can watch me, live, turn $1000 into $10000 or more because I'm pretty good at this video game.
nhill Member	Sat Jul 02 20:36:03 If I'm wrong and we don't have a big leg down this month, well, I'll adjust accordingly to plan B. :)
Dukhat Member	Sat Jul 02 21:57:59 How can you create intergenerational wealth if you're not investing more than you can lose?
nhill Member	Sat Jul 02 22:07:14 Have a lot you can afford to lose. :P We’re in our thirties minimum… if you made six figures the past ten years and saved and compounded 20% of your income (through $SPY or something) you should have at least 6 figures to throw away by now. If not? Well, then you can at least get to the point of being able to do it next opportunity provided you play the game and take profits next time people are manic about the market (that’s when you take profits and chill for a year). But my thread titled means it’s a chance for generational wealth. I don’t recommend taking that chance unless you can afford it.
nhill Member	Sun Jul 03 01:10:42 If it wasn't clear, the timeframe for this is at a minimum until Q3 2023 before it starts to compound into significant digits.
LazyCommunist Member	Sun Jul 03 06:39:03 “Insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results” Keep on entertaining me!
murder Member	Sun Jul 03 07:15:37 "Here's a bunch of financial advice" ... "* Not financial advice." The fig leaf of every scoundrel.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Sun Jul 03 07:51:11 The fig leaf is there to protect the stupid from predators, and declaring where the liability is. We are 1 year into this "not financial advice" theme of UP and the record is there. You don't understand because you choose to not understand. So be it, but the most likely outcome is that we will be here 1 year from now, the prediction emerges (maybe a bit later in Q4 or earlier in Q2) and you will say the same things again.
Habebe Member	Sun Jul 03 09:57:13 It would delve into predatory when they say "sell your house and family business and buy anything" Plus, he isnt making anything off this. He means it when he says 10%.
nhill Member	Sun Jul 03 10:24:22 It's not financial advice because I don't know anyone's full situation here and I'm not in control of how you deal with this information. This information is the blueprint I'm using. I'm sharing my plan and it may or may not fit into your personal situation. We're grown people here. Financial advice would be me taking your finances and situation into account and proffering personalized advice because all financial decisions have to be made within the context of your own finances. The 10% part is, indeed, real, and not a facetious way to reduce liability. I mean it. I've been saying for years that you should never plop more than 10% of your investments into volatile commodities (even before I got into crypto).
nhill Member	Sun Jul 03 10:40:55 The other reason it's not financial advice is I'm pretty sure only Nim and Habebe could decipher the blueprint anyways ;)
Habebe Member	Sun Jul 03 11:09:56 Yeah, I'm done arguing with haters. Ill agree to disagree and move on with the conversation.
nhill Member	Sun Jul 03 12:29:07 Is a good approach, I’ll get there too soon
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Sun Jul 03 12:34:07 It's only murder and dukhat + alts anyway. Two of the posters who habitually, often within one post, contradict themselves or obliterate the moral high ground they have construct, with their own behavior.
nhill Member	Sun Jul 03 16:10:23 Haters gonna hate— Ima do me regardless of the ankle biting flea(s). My motives can be questioned but the track record speaks for itself. I may be wrong here, often am. Will adjust accordingly if needed.
nhill Member	Fri Jul 22 12:43:51 Still waiting for the trigger on this.
nhill Member	Fri Jul 22 12:51:15 Never forget: http://pbs...2837666919/1585647609/1500x500
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Fri Jul 22 12:51:38 Patiently like a tiger in the tall grass.
nhill Member	Fri Jul 22 12:53:47 Btw I shared this info in the crypto thread, but my blueprint above is for non-stable tokens. I also keep a healthy allocation of stablecoins (in the form of USDC) to take advantage of new opportunities and farming rewards on PTP. I try to always have 20%-80% of my crypto in USDC, depending on how the market is doing. Even in peak bull market I keep dry powder. You'll learn why if you play the game. :)
nhill Member	Fri Jul 22 12:54:11 Rawr
nhill Member	Fri Jul 22 12:57:55 We only have 9 days left in the month, so I may still be waiting for the trigger in August. But I do feel something a brewin'. If BTC reclaims 32K on the monthly close I may reconsider, but, so far, this rally hasn't changed my plans. That said, I do have 20% of my crypto in this blueprint and it has done extremely well this month.
nhill Member	Fri Jul 22 13:03:22 $SOL: $31 $BTC: $18956 $NEAR: $3.22 $BNB: $213 $OSMO: $0.72 $ATOM: $7.9 $PTP: $0.19 $DPX: $113 $ETH: $1051 ^cataloging USD value at time of posting this thread.
nhill Member	Fri Jul 22 13:06:22 $SOL: $41 $BTC: $22953 $NEAR $4.32 $OSMO: $0.97 $ATOM: $10.54 $PTP: $0.15 (had a dump after the NFT mint, expected that) $DPX: $253 $ETH: $1561 ^current prices
nhill Member	Fri Jul 22 13:12:46 $SOL: $41 (+32%) $BTC: $22953 (+21%) $NEAR $4.32 (+34%) $OSMO: $0.97 (+34%) $ATOM: $10.54 (+33%) $PTP: $0.15 (-22%) $DPX: $253 (+123%) yowza! $ETH: $1561 (+48%) w/ percentages So total performance these past three weeks is about +38% for the non stable tokens. Since I was 20% deployed, I increased my token values by approximately +8% with a minimal risk profile in a bear market. But I expect those gains to be temporarily wiped out here soonish.
Habebe Member	Fri Jul 22 13:14:50 DPX more than doubled, ETH has a been rebounding well. My macro concern is still a recession hit. 1. Housing market could throw a monkey wrench. 2. The Fed fighting inflation is kind of like Chemo, its gonna slow growth (Todays jobs report) itsnjust a matter of how much. 3. China doesn't seem likely to boost the economy, they are in bad shape. Germany's manufacturing will take a hit with energy issues too. Those were large economic engines. Not sure who can pick up there slack.
nhill Member	Fri Jul 22 13:20:06 Maybe FOMC next week will be the trigger? Idk. When I get a feeling about the markets it tends to happen. I don't question it much. I didn't think this FOMC would be significant macro wise, but we'll see. Once we get the stab down to around 600B total market cap it'll be close enough to the macro bottom for me to deploy again, FINALLY. Been 7 months of sitting on the sidelines already.
nhill Member	Fri Jul 22 13:21:13 There's also big tech earnings next week. Might add some fuel to the fire. But I feel something bigger.
nhill Member	Fri Jul 22 13:23:58 I remember last, early May. BTC was still around 55K. Everyone was bullish. I posted in the crypto thread at the time that I sold everything. Something felt off, out of balance. Similar feeling now is growing.
nhill Member	Fri Jul 22 13:25:54 last year, that is.
nhill Member	Fri Jul 22 13:27:13 But, again, I could be wrong. It's personal confluence, take it with a grain of salt. The biggest thing to me is that if we crab around the bottom for a year or two I'm going to be farming the shit outta it and accumulating a ton of tokens.
nhill Member	Fri Jul 22 13:30:09 Habebe I have long time horizon macro concerns. That's why I'm not touching my very conservative stock portfolio. Just getting those dividends (and handing 41% of them to Uncle Sam godddamit). But crypto has tended to front run macro recoveries as I touched on above. The liquidity can move more freely in crypto, whereas in traditional markets the liquidity of big players flows like sludge (due to regulations, disclosures, leverage unwinds, etc.)
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Fri Jul 22 14:10:22 Been catching up on Arthur Hayes latest two essays about a looming Japanese and Euro crisis. He argues that for the alliance against Russian oil and gas to hold, the US will need to start buying Euro and Japanese bonds, since neither of these entities are able to dig themselves out of the holes they are sinking in. Winter is coming.
nhill Member	Fri Jul 22 14:18:55 Oh sweet, new Hayes drop. 8)
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