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Utopia Talk / Politics / Senate midterms-Up for grabs
Habebe
Member
Fri Jul 08 23:32:16
Never under estimate Republicans ability to fuck it up.

Now the numbers game was always against them.

21 Republican seats up thenelection
14 dem seats up for election.

As of now it looks like the Dems actually have a reasonable chance at maintaining the Senate.

Oz V Fetterman is the one to watch IMHO. Fetterman is a strong candidate in PA. Honestly I dont get the Oz hate for largely living in NJ, I lived most of my life in PA and while there I was in NJ all the time, there are a million bridges, I used to drive over just to get gas.

But anyway, that caroet bagger shit sounds like magic internet noise.

Not sure if the Green party has a candidate or the Libertarian in PA.

Dems usually get the greens banned for no reason.

PA, GA and WI

Seem to be the big contenders where D can pick up a seat.

WI seems likely Reoublican the other two lean Den last I heard.

I'll post some 538 links soon.
Habebe
Member
Sat Jul 09 00:13:06
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/

Even in an environment where 88% say the country is headed in the wrong direction, with Democrats controlling both houses and the POTUS.

The Reoublicans stand a chance of not winning the Senate..

Smh
Dukhat
Member
Sat Jul 09 01:21:46
Republican favorability was -20 and probably got far worse after roe v wade was overturned. Dems are in the dumps too but if the economy improves they could rebound. There isn’t bisceral hatred of biden outside of hardcore fox news watchers. People hate inflation. If it can go down a little bit, dems have a good shot.
murder
Member
Sat Jul 09 07:46:05

"21 Republican seats up thenelection
14 dem seats up for election."

What is the point of even posting this. If 21 Republican senate seats are up, but they are all in red states, then that is like having 0 Republican seats up for election.

How many Rep and Dem seats are in actual jeopardy?

That's the only question that matters.

murder
Member
Sat Jul 09 08:30:26

As far as I can tell Democrats have 3 or 4 Senate seats at risk and Republicans maybe 2.


Habebe
Member
Sat Jul 09 09:01:20
Murder, There are 7 seats that are considered toss ups.

Its about dead even but, again Oz and Fetterman is the one to watch.

Oz still has a good chance, Fetterman hasnt been seen since his heart attack/surgery. So who knows.

Plus Fetterman was Vice governor while adding insane gas taxes.

Here is more info, dems are actually slightly favored 53/47

http://pro...2022-election-forecast/senate/
Habebe
Member
Tue Jul 12 22:25:39
PA

NV

NH

AZ

WI

GA

Seem to be the closest.

As of now, unless PA dems have low turnout, Fetterman has health issues (he is still recovering from a stroke) or OZ really pulls things around, Im leaning heavy in favour of Fetterman.

OZ could be a hit with suburban women though. Fetterman edge is that he is one of the few ppl who as a.democrat can garner support outside of the cities.

I'll have to see likely* voter polls to get a better grasp.

WI and GA seem good chances for Republicans.

AZ and NH are very much in play. Roe may play a role in boosting enthusiasm if abortion is on the ballot there. Not sure if it is.

The chances of Reps taking the Senate according to 538 did increase slightly.
Habebe
Member
Tue Jul 12 22:26:35
http://pro...2022-election-forecast/senate/

The Senate forecast.
Y2A
Member
Wed Jul 13 00:05:39
fetterman is a funny guy, apparently hired one off those advert planes to fly "Welcome home Oz" on the Jersey Shore this summer.
Habebe
Member
Sat Jul 23 16:30:32
And Dr. Oz closes in on the polls. The 2 most recent polls of likely voters has him in at 4-6 pts behind Fetterman, these were 2 weeks ago.

I think OZ has his best chance yet to win.

1.Fett has run a great campaign, very funny.

2. Fett is very Pennsylvania, he just is. And he has dome a great job at calling OZ out as a "carpet bagger" even though IMHO it doesn't apply, the entire Philly area is closer culturally/physically to NJ than western PA.

But fetts campaign is great. OZ cant get right.

His ace in the hole? Fetterman can't talk, and may never be able to, he got caught lying about the seriousness of His stroke 2 days before primary.

He hasn't made any public appearances, ont be able to debate.

OZ needs to step up his campaign game, especially online, Fett has an army of bots.

If OZ wins PA, the Reps takenthe Senate IMHO.

GA seems a slamdunk with Herschel, not that he is a great candidate, but Warnock is a weak one in GA and its just a Reoublican leaning environment.

Now next time this cycle repeats? Who knows. Some weak candidates.

Side note, the Dems have been spending millions supporting the furthest right Governor, who I didn't think had a chance, but he is polling pretty well now, they never learned their lesson doing this.

Governor Mastriano would not be good for Dems.

It may long term backfire on Reps because he has alot going on, but who knows.
Habebe
Member
Sat Jul 23 17:02:08
His bots are annoying AF though.

Never post on anything online about him or OZ, 50 million ppl yelling "Russian bot!" Most not from PA either.
Habebe
Member
Thu Aug 04 17:03:24
Tt
Rugian
Member
Thu Aug 04 18:55:11
I just spent some time with family in western PA. Completely anecdotal, but:

-The GOP should be easily winning this race as the Democrats have seriously alienated people with shit like gun control etc.

-Unfortunately, those dumbass idiots fucked it all up by nominating Oz, an unlikable NJ celebrity outsider and charlatan

Nice job, retards.
tumbleweed
the wanderer
Thu Aug 04 19:14:36
30%+ follow a head retard
Jesse Malcolm Barack
Member
Thu Aug 04 21:47:20
Oh man I wonder if trying to ban abortion and turn us into a christian taliban state has anything to do with it?

Some of the maga candidates are crying election fraud for losing their primaries
tumbleweed
the wanderer
Thu Aug 04 21:51:55
some are crying fraud when winning too
Habebe
Member
Fri Aug 05 04:31:45
Rugian, The Fett V OZ race is wierd.

Online they all love Fett. Polls have been closing in but still show OZ behind.

But when I talk to actual PA ppl, they all say OZ os doing better than the Polls suggest.

He should really play up the gun issues.

But, I support releasing non violent offenders from jail.

Pennsyltucky (non Philly/pburg) has a strong libertarian "leave me alone" streak that would be down with reducing prison pop., decriminalizing weed as well as one of the largest hunting pops im the country, everyone hunts.
McKobb
Member
Fri Aug 05 06:05:24
"Fetterman paid $2,000 for an airplane to haul a banner over weekend beachgoers on the Jersey Shore welcoming Oz back home to the Garden State."

hahaha
Habebe
Member
Fri Aug 05 08:48:29
MKobb, He has run a good out of the box campaign.

Since his stroke he hasn't been able to go out places or even regain full speaking ability.

BUT his smart usenof money had had plenty of viral bits. The Snookey video was funny.

But the entire campaign has been "OZ is from NJ" legit that's it.

Apparently it plays well online, and mabey* in western PA.

But to me being from the philly burbs its dumb. We had more in common with NJ than western PA , everyone is in and out of NJ almost daily.

Its not like he was from Alabama or CA.
Dukhat
Member
Fri Aug 05 13:56:21
The rural rednecks you identify are going to identify more with Fetterman than Oz and that's it.

His straight-talk. His overall demeanor. His Jean Shorts. He's what the average rural Pennsylvanian looks like to a T.

And they'd be proud to vote for a crippled version of themselves over some East-Coast carpetbagger which is exactly what Oz comes off as.

Doesn't help that the top of the ticket is some Trumper piece-of-shit running for governor too.
Habebe
Member
Fri Aug 05 17:04:46
Mastriano is actually doing well in the polls.

Dukhat seems to think of ppl inna very liberal manner.
murder
Member
Mon Aug 15 09:12:22

umichvoter @umichvoter

Who thought this was a good idea?

http://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1559011904076529664


Oz is a man of the people. No one knows those people.

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