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Utopia Talk / Politics / Seb: I told you so
Habebe
Member
Sat Jul 09 16:41:30
http://www...f-10-year-old-rape-victim/amp/

Biden faces doubt over story of 10-year-old rape victim he used to push abortion order
By Mary Kay Linge

July 9, 2022 | 4:25pm

President Biden is facing increasing skepticism after he repeated the horrifying story of a 10-year-old rape victim to push his executive order on abortion — without seeking any evidence that the tale is true.

Biden on Friday raged against Ohio’s restrictive abortion law as he referenced the widely reported incident, in which a young girl was allegedly forced to travel across state lines to obtain an abortion after being raped.

“Imagine being that little girl,” he said. “I’m serious, just imagine being that little girl. Ten years old!”

But hours later, the Washington Post acknowledged what conservative critics had been saying for days: that the story, first reported July 1 by the Indianapolis Star, is highly dubious.

A single source, Indianapolis OB-GYN Dr. Caitlin Bernard, claims an Ohio “child abuse doctor” contacted her after determining that the young victim was six weeks and three days pregnant — three days too late to obtain an abortion under the restrictive Ohio abortion law triggered by the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision.


But Bernard is a prominent abortion advocate, reported Megan Fox at the right-leaning PJ Media — and provided no details about the location of the crime or whether it was being investigated by authorities.

******By law, both physicians are mandated reporters who must disclose evidence of child abuse to police. In the days since, no arrests in such a case have been reported.

The fact-checking website Snopes.com said on Tuesday Bernard had refused to provide further information. On Saturday, the Washington Post added that child services agencies in Cleveland, Columbus, Cincinnati, Dayton, Toledo, and other Ohio cities were unaware of any 10-year-old rape victims in their jurisdictions.*****


What did you call me? A birthed level conspiracy theorist for questioning the validity of such a story?
Habebe
Member
Sat Jul 09 16:42:43
birther*
Habebe
Member
Sat Jul 09 18:08:14
Seb
Member Sun Jul 03 18:42:49
I love how habebe is so convinced the law cannot be working exactly as drafted that he's gone full moon landing truther, and demanding ever more unreasonable "proof" the story is real.

Moon landing truther was the phrase.
Habebe
Member
Sat Jul 09 18:08:45
http://www...hread=90184&time=1656977579018
Habebe
Member
Sat Jul 09 18:08:46
http://www...hread=90184&time=1656977579018
Forwyn
Member
Sat Jul 09 19:02:27
Lol Seb owned
Jesse Malcolm Barack
Member
Sat Jul 09 19:31:42
Dude reminding everyone of the topic where you desperately defended the GOPs rape baby policy

http://sla...e-rape-incest-republicans.html

Republicans Are Having Some Trouble Talking About Rape and Incest
GOP officials have face-planted trying to defend the country’s harshest abortion bans.

One notable thing about these trigger statutes, which have been gradually enacted over the past two decades, is that most of them do not make any exceptions for cases involving rape or incest.

The reasoning behind it is straightforward enough: If life really starts at conception and abortion is murder, then terminating a pregnancy for any reason at all must be banned. The issue is that outside the world of conservative ideologues, it remains a wildly unpopular policy.

Voters are broadly supportive of abortion rights in the first trimester or so, but they are especially supportive of these rights in scenarios where women have been the victim of a crime. This has left Republicans attempting to defend the politically indefensible. None of the tactics they are trying appears to be working very well.

Take Yesli Vega, a GOP house candidate in Virginia, who was caught on tape during a campaign stop musing that women might be less likely to get pregnant in cases of rape.

The comment was essentially a repeat of the notorious gaffe that ended Rep. Todd Akin’s political career in 2012. The Missouri congressman lost his bid for the Senate after suggesting that women could not become pregnant in cases of “legitimate rape” because “the female body has ways to shut that whole thing down.”

The Supreme Court’s decision to junk Roe already appears to be deeply unpopular. Several midterm polls already show voters moving toward the Democrats since the ruling came down.
Habebe
Member
Sat Jul 09 19:52:36
Jesse, I am pro legalized abortions.

I disagree with late term abortions outside of certain exceptions.

But that doesn't change the fact that this story had holes in it from the begining.

Most notably no rapist.
Seb
Member
Sun Jul 10 04:09:37
Habebe:

This report doesn't add anything new Luther than to rehash the same talking points you were regurgitating.

I provided some examples of why you might not expect to find confirmation details given to the press.

They remain consistent with the the report.
Habebe
Member
Sun Jul 10 14:25:51
Why wouldn't they be given tonthe authorities? As demanded by law?

******By law, both physicians are mandated reporters who must disclose evidence of child abuse to police. In the days since, no arrests in such a case have been reported.

The fact-checking website Snopes.com said on Tuesday Bernard had refused to provide further information. On Saturday, the Washington Post added that child services agencies in Cleveland, Columbus, Cincinnati, Dayton, Toledo, and other Ohio cities were unaware of any 10-year-old rape victims in their jurisdictions.*****
Habebe
Member
Sun Jul 10 14:27:59
You just can't admit you were wrong. The clear preponderance of evidence shows this never happened.

Actually beyond reasonable doubt even.
Forwyn
Member
Sun Jul 10 14:31:13
Lol. Seb believes an activist would never concoct a story to further their cause.

And he calls others conspiracy theorists.
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Sun Jul 10 15:04:40
Jussie Smollette? Hello?!

I feel a bit stupid taking that story at face value. Story was too good.
Seb
Member
Sun Jul 10 16:16:08
Habebe:

Physician is obligated in law to disclose to police.

It does not follow that an arrest must have been made. E.g. perpetrator not identified (not clear about whether if the perpetrator was a minor that would be an arrest - in the UK under 10s can't be formally arrested, Ohio apparently children under 12 can't be arrested for any crime, I don't know what that means in terms of procedure and can't be bothered to find out - but one of those things where you need to really understand semantically what the question you pose means, particularly if authorities are keen not to disclose information as they would be if the perpetrator was a child).

The list of child services, is that exhaustive?
Seb
Member
Sun Jul 10 16:19:13
Forwyn:

Its perfectly possible. Its all very common for people confronted with their favourite leopard eating face party candidate eating someone's face to go into denial.

Sure, if there's actual evidence that it's concocted, so be it.

But at the time all Habebe had to offer was speculation and even now it doesn't look particularly solid as to exclude the possibility.

Of course, if eventually someone does post enough information to exclude it, Mr stopped clock will claim he was right all along, even though the evidence to substantiate his claim emerged days or weeks later.

Seb
Member
Sun Jul 10 16:19:44
Its *also* very common.
Seb
Member
Sun Jul 10 16:20:56
Gargh "Ohio apparently children under 12 can't be arrested for any crime,"

I meant can't he *charged* ... I don't know what that means for procedure (i.e. does whatever custodial process happens formally count as arrest).
Habebe
Member
Sun Jul 10 16:46:55
"It does not follow that an arrest must have been made. E.g. perpetrator not identified"

"
On Saturday, the Washington Post added that child services agencies in Cleveland, Columbus, Cincinnati, Dayton, Toledo, and other Ohio cities were unaware of any 10-year-old rape victims in their jurisdictions."

Also

"The fact-checking website Snopes.com said on Tuesday Bernard had refused to provide further information. "

The odds are against this story being true.

More importantly, I was in no way a "moon landing truther" for questioning the veracity of the story.

This story could still be true, anything is possible. But its highly unlikely.

Seb
Member
Sun Jul 10 16:54:15
From the washington post:

"Dan Tierney, press secretary for Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine (R), said the governor’s office was unaware of any specific case but he said under the state’s decentralized system, records would be held at a local level. Thus, he said, it would be hard to confirm a report without knowing the local jurisdiction to narrow the search."


"As a spot check, we contacted child services agencies in some of Ohio’s most populous cities, including Cleveland, Columbus, Cincinnati, Dayton and Toledo."

So basically, you are saying the odds against it being true because the WaPo checked with five cities child services.

How many authorities are there in each city, let alone the entire state? Again, genuine question. In London each borough council would be a separate local authority. I do not know how Ohio is organised.

But obviously you can answer that because you clearly believe that the WaPo statement, which implies a potential lower bound of only five child services checked - the odds are that this is untrue - in fact "highly unlikely" - lets chalk that up to hyperbole and say maybe 1 in 10, and that must surely be an evidenced based statement right?



Seb
Member
Sun Jul 10 16:55:04
WaPo describes it as a "spot check" so no particular reason to believe it is particularly exhaustive.
Seb
Member
Sun Jul 10 16:58:31
Or is it more like, republicans are trying to find a vague fig leaf to dismiss a perfectly believable story that perfectly illustrates why these laws are a huge problem because it is politically inconvenient?
Habebe
Member
Sun Jul 10 17:03:22
Why would the activist who reported it to the news refuse to saynehat district to verify?
Habebe
Member
Sun Jul 10 17:03:47
Say what district*?
Habebe
Member
Sun Jul 10 17:13:37
So lets do some numbers.

How many 10 year olds are able to get pregnant?

Your argument is also it is a male under 12.

We need a 10 yr old who is able to get pregnant, by a 12 yr old, that is not in any major populated area of OH, there no sign of any rapist, the source is an abortion activist who also refuses tongive even vague details past what she told and also she never reported any information to the police.

Now who is moonlanding truther?

Possible? Yes. Plausible? No.
Habebe
Member
Sun Jul 10 17:22:40
Also WAPO said "and other cities"

And by their own admission, it's not very well sourced story.So the likleyhood its true is very low.

So I was in no way being a conspiracy theorist questioning the veracity of it.

If anything the reverse is true.
Habebe
Member
Sun Jul 10 17:26:12
It could be true, but there is no more evidence that it is than any bar story.

And even more so, more and more evidence that it is less likley to be true.
Jesse Malcolm Barack
Member
Sun Jul 10 17:44:31
"You just can't admit you were wrong"

This is coming from the dude who says

"Trump won the election" "Trump didnt try to steal the election" "Russia didnt try to influence the election"

just stfu dude

Habebe pretending rape doesnt exist out of the hope it makes his weird pervert party look better
Seb
Member
Sun Jul 10 17:54:28
Habebe:

Why would a doctor *in another state* want to do anything that might identify the doctor that referred the patient to him?

Its totally unheard of for that to have any consequences.

Like, oh, anti-abortionists protesting it even killing the doctor.

Come to think of it, why will the doctor from out of state care about the district? How is it medically relevant?

Re birth rate for 10 year olds, in 1990 in the US from 10-14 it was 1.4 per thousand girls in that age bracket. Hardly biologically impossible given that most of those girls will not be trying to have babies.

Now here's the sad thing Habebe - child victims of sexual assault are often victim of repeated assault by the same person, so even if it is hard for them to get pregnant, there are lots of roles of the dice.

"Your argument is also it is a male under 12."

No, I'm pointing out that's one possibility you are excluding. There are others (no known perpetrator).

"by a 12 yr old, that is not in any major populated area of OH,"

No, we don't know (or at least you have not provided evidence that) wapo "spot check" covered all abortion services divisions in all populated areas.

"there no sign of any rapist"
You mean there's been no arrest at this time? Because actually that's all you've shown. There may be active investigation.

"the source is an abortion activist"

The source is a doctor who provides such services. Normally the word of a doctor counts more, due to professional obligations, and in this case we expect the doctor to be in a good position to know as they, uh, provide the service. In the topsy-turvy world of Habebe though, this means that are to be trusted less because as someone on the wrong political side of the argument (i.e. not habebes) this makes them more likely to be a liar.

Also, hilarious to start a post "lets do some numbers" and then offer no numbers at all.


So what, when we get down to it, do we actually have as reasons to disbelieve this story?

A check of what may amount to as few as five child services providers covering an unknown proportion of Ohio's population.

A totally unsurprising lack of arrests.

A totally unsurprising refusal of the doctor out of state to give any information that might disclose the identity of her colleague (terrible, possibly making them an accessory if they were attacked by anti-abortionists) or patient (definitely criminal and grounds for losing right to practice).

And most damingly - the story is politically inconvenient for anti abortionists - so must therefore be untrue.
Seb
Member
Sun Jul 10 17:57:30
There's no particular reason to think this untrue, and if it was true, this is exactly how the law would operate. So demanding some kind of six sigma standards of proof here seems bonkers when the question is one of principle.

Not that habebe has those so much asa laundry list of random prejudices and gut feelings he strings together on an ad-hoc basis and then gets angry if - in following them in a complicated world - it results in unjust outcomes.
Seb
Member
Sun Jul 10 18:10:21
Turns out it's one cps per county and there are multiple counties per city (5 Ohio counties in Cincinnati).

So, no, we can't infer wapo actually even ruled out the case in any of the cities listed.
Habebe
Member
Sun Jul 10 19:21:36
Your jumping through a whole lot of what ifs as it seems less and less likely this ever happened.

"There's no particular reason to think this untrue"

There Absolutley is. Just the same as a bar rumour with limited info and no evidence.

1. The stastical odds alone make it a rare event. At best your argument is that 10-14 yr olds had 1.4 thousand pregnancies.

In the US? In the world? How many ten year olds? Its not impossible, never said it was, the youngest pregnancy was 5 yr old with a rare condition. But its not common place.

2. This Dr. Has a strong motivation to lie to make such a story big news. And when questioned further she won't answer.

3. There is ZERO hard evidence. No rapist mentioned. None arrested no complaints known to the public tonever exist. Could it be hiding under a rock somewhere? Sure. But these are alot of what it's that do not seem likely.

And what reason do we have to think otnis true? ABSOLUTELY NONE, we have the word of a pro abortion doctor, who makes profits off of this to boot.And even she now refuses to answer any questions.

Any one source story that cant be confirmed in any way shape or form should be treated skeptical, esoecially with strong motivations to lie.

Also of she went to get an abortion, there are 6 clinics that offer abortion and 3 others that offer medication for abortion in OH.

http://www...nd-where.html%3foutputType=amp

Six full-service abortion clinics are open in Ohio, and another three offer only medication abortion services, according to prochoiceohio.org. Medication-based abortion services are performed by taking two medications 48 hours apart to end an early pregnancy. Full-service clinics also offer surgical procedures.

See the map below for the location and website of each abortion clinic operating in Ohio. Some readers may need to use this link.

All the Ohio abortion clinics are in or near major metropolitan areas - three in or near Cleveland, two in Columbus, and one each in Akron, Cincinnati, Toledo, and just outside Dayton.


Hmmm, those locations look very familiar.

What sort of what if BS answer do you have now?

Or will you finally just admit, odds are this didnt happen.

And that Habebe was correct from day one to be skeptical.
Forwyn
Member
Sun Jul 10 19:25:44
Seb thinks a 10-year old being pregnant is the same and relevant to a 14-year old being pregnant.

This is the same retard who cannot understand why someone would trust an abortion doctor less than a cardiologist. "They both went to med school!"

Shut the fuck up, retard.
Habebe
Member
Sun Jul 10 19:31:31
Forwyn, Exactly. Even of those 1.4k, the numbers wouldn't likely be an even split and the likleyhood of pregnancy would be weighted towards the older girls.

Not to mention WAPO aked the agencies in the counties where all the abortion clinics reside.He is apparently under the assumption all 88 counties in OH have abortion clinics.
Jesse Malcolm Barack
Member
Mon Jul 11 02:55:50
"14 year old girls being pregnant is ok" - habebe and other republitards
Seb
Member
Mon Jul 11 03:36:00
Habebe:

"1. The stastical odds alone make it a rare event. At best your argument is that 10-14 yr olds had 1.4 thousand pregnancies. In the US? In the world? How many ten year olds?"

Habebe, what I wrote was not *particularly* ambiguous.

"Re birth rate for 10 year olds, in 1990 in the US from 10-14 it was 1.4 per thousand girls in that age bracket."

What that means is that in 1990, in the US, at least 1.4 in every 1000 10-14 year olds gave birth.

http://www...te,2%20by%20the%20year%202020.


Obviously 10-14 year olds are not out furiously bonking, so that's not an upper bound on biological possibility of getting pregnant.

You seem to think that is is biologically very unlikely for a 10 year old to be physiologically capable of getting pregnant.

This is not true.

"2. This Dr. Has a strong motivation to lie to make such a story big news."

She also has a strong motivation to tell the truth. You can't just assume bad faith.


"And when questioned further she won't answer."

For obvious fucking reasons set out.

"There is ZERO hard evidence."
There is also no reason for there to be "hard evidence" as you put it - they are hardly going to wheel out a 10 year old to be abused as a baby murderer by your compatriots.

"No rapist mentioned."
The doctor isn't going to know the name of the rapist, are they? "Oh, sure, I'll abort your 10 year old patients rape baby, but first, tell me the name of the rapist so I can put it out on news and identify you.

"None arrested"
And there are lots of reasons that might be the case.

"no complaints known to the public tonever exist."
There are lots of reasons it might not be known to the public I've set out, and in fact the attempt to identify if there are is far from comprehensive.

"But these are alot of what it's that do not seem likely."


And yet you've done no analysis whatsover to quantify whether these are unlikely. You have just assumed it is unlikley.

It reminds me of the bible code.



Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Mon Jul 11 04:17:36
”There's no particular reason to think this untrue”

Another classic from the guy with a phd who gave you ”I think a chain letter signed by scientists denouncing the lab leak as conspiracy, is science”



How good are the chances to get to the bottom of this?
Seb
Member
Mon Jul 11 04:43:01
Nim:


The content, not the format is what matters Nim. In any case that was hardly the only thing cited.

Your argument was we should listen to a single paper with obvious flaws because it fitted your views better.

Seb
Member
Mon Jul 11 04:45:07

Habebe:

"All the Ohio abortion clinics are in or near major metropolitan areas - three in or near Cleveland, two in Columbus, and one each in Akron, Cincinnati, Toledo, and just outside Dayton."

What do you believe this tells you?

"Or will you finally just admit, odds are this didnt happen."

Like you said, lets talk numbers. What odds, specifically, and how do you arrive at them?


Seb
Member
Mon Jul 11 04:46:30
Basically, you can assume everyone who disagrees with you, in your mind must have a "strong motivation to lie".

This is called assumption of bad faith, and it makes most political discourse impossible.
Habebe
Member
Mon Jul 11 06:08:13
Seb, For starters, her job may literally depend on it ad indiana debates legislation.

I think we can all agree that this topic often where emotions run high.


You sir are in denial. There is no other way to put it. Your grasping at straws.

Can you atleast admit that it was reasonable to be skeptical of this story? Just that, will you admit that?
Seb
Member
Mon Jul 11 06:58:34
Habebe:

"Seb, For starters, her job may literally depend on it ad indiana debates legislation."

Yeah the only thing qualified OBGYN docs do is abortion. It is known.

Here is the test, would you dismiss everything any republican politician or activist says on the basis that their policy and electoral chances might be undermined if their position was shown to be false, which would affect them?

"Your grasping at straws."

Really?

Lets go through your argument again:

"You should not believe this report because it's being reported by a doctor, which makes them likely to be a liar; and because the WaPo phoned five out of 88 counties in Ohio and none of those five confirmed a 10 year old rape victim."

Who, exactly, is grasping at straws?



Habebe
Member
Mon Jul 11 07:00:11
Can you atleast admit that it was reasonable to be skeptical of this story? Just that, will you admit that?
Seb
Member
Mon Jul 11 07:00:18
"Can you atleast admit that it was reasonable to be skeptical of this story? Just that, will you admit that?"

It is not now, and it definitely wasn't then.

You might as well say "why won't they show us the 10 year old? Why won't they let us inspect her womb?" - half of the things you are asking are that scale of "Of course you won't get that, ever" level nonsense.


Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Mon Jul 11 07:57:34
Seb
>>The content, not the format is what matters Nim. In any case that was hardly the only thing cited.<<

There is no "content" to the letter you idiot, but I love how you are trying to invent it.. It's just a strongly worded letter, "muh geopolitical implication, muh chinese coworkers".

"Nim:Andersen of Andersen et al, was one of these people who signed an open letter, weeks in to the pandemic to denounce the lab leak hypothesis. Does that sound scientific to you?

Seb:Yes - at the time the lab leak claims were largely lurid nonsense implying it was deliberately manufactured - and being pushed by the Trump admin - as a means to assign culpability to china for political purpose."

This was the answer you gave to a very specific question about the letter. The context being the early days when this letter (without any science) was signed, including by people who failed miserably to declare conflict of interest.

In short, at the time you were full of shit, as you are now.

>>Your argument was we should listen to a single paper with obvious flaws because it fitted your views better.<<

I dare you to find support for that with actual citations. Here is the thread with above quotes.

http://utopiaforums.com/boardthread?id=politics&thread=88212

What I have done among other things, while impeccably and truthfully navigate covid, was that I supplied evidence and arguments to update the Baysian priors, as most people seem to think lab accidents are rare. I didn't form my opinions based on a letter without any data or analysis 2 weeks into the pandemic. I also didn't try to sully the names scientists, based on tweets (lol substance), because they said things that were going against the narrative I had accepted as gospel 2 weeks in because the BBC told me so.

You are pathetic, but I invite you to take me to task here and go find where I have said we should listen to 1 paper.

That is the most disgusting thing with people like you, that you will try to destroy people, their reputation and livelihood when they disagree with you.
Habebe
Member
Mon Jul 11 08:05:29
Seb, This confirms your a mannof faith. Beleiving what you want regardless of evidence, your basically a Mormon.
Seb
Member
Mon Jul 11 08:12:53
Nim:

1. You are changing the subject in one of your quixotic crusades again.

2. If you look down chain I clarified my position and you admitted yourself you were deliberately not reflecting my position:

"I was not attempting to make a "fair" reading of what you are saying,"

In your own quote where you say I support some letter, actually you introduce the letter simply to attempt to discredit work of a researcher who I cited.

And the thrust of your argument is that it is unscientific for scientists to engage in political debate - in this case writing a letter pointing out that the claims being made by politicians are wholly unsubstantiated.

See, this is the kind of bad faith arguments that lead me to end up having to call you a silly cunt.

Stop being a silly cunt Nim. You are better than this. Or at least used to be a few years back.
Seb
Member
Mon Jul 11 08:18:53
Habebe:

What makes it sound and rational - in your mind - to think that it is a lie?

You yourself admit there is no actual evidence to that fact, and there's no credible inference on the lack of evidence given the checks performed to date that cannot be better explained by other factors.

So other than a simple belief that anything contrary to your preference is likely to be a lie - what have you got?

Against that I offer:

1. Can 10 year olds subject to abuse get pregnant at rates that mean it likely you would have one in this time window? Yes.

2. Is it the case that such a pregnancy would be illegal to terminate under the new laws? Yes.

3. Is it likely that there would not have been an arrest? Yes - many such incidents go without arrest or conviction where there is no evidence - especially if the perpetrator is under the age of criminal liability.

The strongest line you have would be if you had actually got hard confirmation of no case being reported to CPS - but we don't actually have that. You actually need to do that work, not half heartedly point to a check of perhaps as little as
5 out of 88 CPS offices.
Seb
Member
Mon Jul 11 08:19:36
A man of faith is a better description of you here - "this is heresy, and comes from a priest of a foreign religion, so must be lies!"
Habebe
Member
Mon Jul 11 08:44:00
Seb, your looking at possibilities and not probabilities.

Is it possible? Yes. Its also possible that Trump had his election stolen and that time will start tonrun backwards.

This is a one source story.

Its rare for 10 yr olds to be able to get pregnant. Agin, possible though.

Out of the 5 areas where there are abortion clinics, none have any reports of child abuse fitting this description.

That one source has strong motivations to make this up. That's objectively true.

Your looking for "Well this could be true" and not the likleyhood.

You beleive it to be true because you want it to be so.

At best its unverifiable. All evidence so far hasn't helpednits chances, it has hurt its chances of being true.

There is no faith required to.be skeptical of what is basically a one source rumour.
Habebe
Member
Mon Jul 11 09:00:32
Textbook gaslighting

"Seb
Member Mon Jul 11 08:19:36
A man of faith is a better description of you here - "this is heresy, and comes from a priest of a foreign religion, so must be lies!"
patom
Member
Mon Jul 11 09:02:51
Habebe, just curious. If it is true that the 10 yr. old was pregnant and had to go to Indiana to get abortion services. How did she become pregnant, if there was no proof of rape?
Did she give consent?
Did she entice someone to have sex with her and impregnate her?
Was it her fault?
Habebe
Member
Mon Jul 11 09:08:28
Patom, 10 yr olds can not give consent, its rape, how could it be her fault?
Habebe
Member
Mon Jul 11 09:09:56
Are you now going you tell me about some wierd religious practice some whacko Republican supported?
Seb
Member
Mon Jul 11 10:03:42
Habebe:

"Seb, your looking at possibilities and not probabilities."

As are you - you've done nothing to substantiate your claims that anything here is improbable.

Most of the features we see are actually the probable result IF the story were true as well as if it were false (e.g. doctor not being able to name a rapist, doctor not being willing to provide information that might help in identifying the specific individuals).

You are asserting improbability with no evidence or reasoning whatsoever.

Habebe
Member
Mon Jul 11 10:15:05
Cope harder.

You don't have to name the guy to give verification.

No arrest. No charges. No reports***

This is a rumour at best.


And in all of the locations where abortion clinics are at there were no reports of a 10 yr old being raped.

Did you hear about the granny who killed 12 antifa members with an AR 15 trying to rape her? Thats at least as likley tonhave happened, but I'd still.be skeptical.
Seb
Member
Mon Jul 11 10:28:31
Habebe:

"Its rare for 10 yr olds to be able to get pregnant."

Not sufficiently for it to be unlikely a 10 year old victim of abuse happens to be pregnant right now.

"Out of the 5 areas where there are abortion clinics, none have any reports of child abuse fitting this description."

Incorrect - you have no basis for saying that. The WaPo says absolutely nothing to suggest they covered e.g. every county in Cincinnati's CPS. Nor is it entirely clear where the CPS would have been permitted to confirm that - all we know is that they sa

I remind you again, the official line from the state government is that it would be very hard to confirm the report - therefore the simple failure to easily do so without an exhaustive check can't be taken as evidence that it is likely false.

This is simple enough logic.

Lets look again at precisely what WaPo said:

"As a spot check, we contacted child services agencies in some of Ohio’s most populous cities, including Cleveland, Columbus, Cincinnati, Dayton and Toledo."

It does not say "all the child services" - therefore we cannot assume this is exhaustive. If it was, it would have said so to make the story stronger. The most we can be sure that were contacted are one CPS per city (there are multiple where there are multiple counties) - so 5 out of 88 in Ohio.

"None of the officials we reached were aware of such a case in their areas."

It is not clear that all the ones they contacted responded, and the official reached may not have been personally aware - but that is not the same as saying that the organisations were aware, but the official responding was not aware.

You simply cannot infer what you are claiming to infer from this report: that you have excluded the five most populous cities in Ohio of having contact with a child rape victim aged 10.

I know you really really want this to be the case, but it is not.

And that is why we differ.
Seb
Member
Mon Jul 11 10:33:49
Habebe:

"You don't have to name the guy to give verification."

Ok, so what would you expect an out of state doctor performing an abortion on a 10 year old to be *required* or *likely* to know about the perpetrator, which they would be able to disclose, without identifying the patient and disclosing the identity of the patient?

Clearly you have something in mind or you would not be claiming it unusual for the doctor to not have disclosed it.

Incorrect regarding no reports - we have a report - you are rejecting it. As for it being reported to a CPS, you haven't remotely asked them all.


As you say, try harder.

So far, you have presented no particularly compelling reason that this isn't true, other than you think inconvenient reports must be assumed to be lies.

It is within your means to falsify the claims properly: you can fire of an FOI to all 88 CPS's in Ohio and report back in a month (or whatever the statutory time is).

Go ahead. Do it. Then we can talk.
Habebe
Member
Mon Jul 11 10:41:16
Mormon ^
Habebe
Member
Mon Jul 11 10:44:52
By your standard the 2020 election was rigged.

You havn't checked each and every ballot. It must be true even though all available evidence says otherwise. One person said so who has a vested interest.
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Mon Jul 11 10:45:29
Seb
>>1. You are changing the subject in one of your quixotic crusades again.<<

The subject of this thread is you.

>>2. If you look down chain I clarified my position and you admitted yourself you were deliberately not reflecting my position<<

Your "clarified position" is adressed in that thread as well as this pathetic strawman of me not giving your position "a fair reading", all of it answered in that thread and habebe's thread perfectly recapitulated the problem.

If you didn't have the reading comprehension of a toad, you can read in the thread that I informed you that I thought the question you raised were valid, but that the same questions or similar questions have to asked and resolved for other hypothesis. But in your usual too dumb to not fall into Cathy Newman type "communication", you tried making your misunderstanding of what I said a point of contention. It's sad really, that even after a second reading, you still don't understand what I was saying despite explicitly stating so several times.
Seb
Member
Mon Jul 11 11:23:41
habebe:

"You havn't checked each and every ballot. It must be true even though all available evidence says otherwise. One person said so who has a vested interest."


Er, lets break that down a step:

1. "This report must be a lie because it comes from a an abortion doctor" cf. "The ballot must be rigged because Trump didn't win"

2. "You haven't checked with every CPS's to determine that there is a victim!" - "There is no check of every ballot that it is authentic".

I think you are projecting again Habebe.


Habebe
Member
Mon Jul 11 11:29:35
Sebs mind has broken.

He LITERALLY has an inability to admit he is wrong.
Seb
Member
Mon Jul 11 11:29:38
Nim:

"The subject of this thread is you."

No it isn't - it's directed at me, but the subject is the 10 year old ohio rape victim that had to have an abortion in Indiana.

Don't be a silly cunt.

"Your "clarified position" is adressed in that thread as well"

Yes, you ignored it and continued to be a silly cunt.

"If you didn't have the reading comprehension of a toad, you can read in the thread that I informed you that I thought the question you raised were valid, but that the same questions or similar questions have to asked and resolved for other hypothesis."

And yet you still try to claim that somehow, I think a perfectly valid letter that set out why trumps claims were lurid nonsense is somehow evidence that Andersen isn't "scientific" whatever that means, and by extension neither am I.

It's bullshit ad-home Nim, which is about all you can muster these days.

"you tried making your misunderstanding"

I've misunderstood nothing. It's there in black and white.

I cited Andersen, you tried to discredit him in reference to some letter (which was not what I was citing in the first place) as though signing this letter somehow invalidates ever piece of work Andersen has ever done (this is not how science works nim) and in any case the letter is utterly anodyne.

Go fuck yourself silly cunt. I've no patience for your disinterring of ancient arguments that you lost the first time.

I don't know exactly the terminology for the sexual act that combines coprophilia, masturbation and necrophilia - but this is the intellectual version of whatever that is. I will have no further part of it.
Forwyn
Member
Mon Jul 11 15:01:23
"He LITERALLY has an inability to admit he is wrong."

Yes. Even if this is outright proven to be a political stunt, like all of the other bullshit on social media right now, Seb will still say, "It came from a doctor, so it was more reasonable to take it at face value, and you're still a conspiracy theorist for having any doubt"
Seb
Member
Mon Jul 11 16:50:07
Habebe:

Let's see, you offer absolutely no reasons whatsoever that suggest this story is untrue, other than we should assume it so because it is being told by a doctor that provides abortions.

You dishonestly and repeatedly misrepresent the wapo report as proof that there's no report, even though you know that's not the case.

And you wonder why I won't "admit I'm wrong"?
Seb
Member
Mon Jul 11 16:52:20
Forwyn:

He is a conspiracy theorist.

He's literally got no evidence or factual basis for claiming it is a lie.

The best he could hope for is that it might be untrue. Instead he's stated it's overwhelmingly unlikely to be true, but refuses to actually provide any basis for how he comes to that conclusion.
Cherub Cow
Member
Tue Jul 12 02:16:35
[Habebe]: "He LITERALLY has an inability to admit he is wrong."
[Forwyn]: "Yes. Even if this is outright proven to be a political stunt, like all of the other bullshit on social media right now, Seb will still say"

Correct. This is probably one of Seb's best meltdown threads.
I especially liked this exchange:

[Habebe]: "Can you atleast admit that it was reasonable to be skeptical of this story? Just that, will you admit that?"
[Seb]: "It is not now, and it definitely wasn't then."

That is, Seb said that it is NOT reasonable to be skeptical of the claims of a single abortion-activist doctor that have not been confirmed by any other existing person or evidentiary chain.

Seb is not capable of rational thought or evidence-building. We saw this with
• his inability to reconcile evidence in the Rittenhouse trial,
• his gun positions,
• his CRT beliefs,
• his faith in Pfizer,
• his shit-takes on Gina Carrano,
• his shit-takes on election fraud,

Seb is not capable of skepticism that does not serve The Party.
He is another bot.
The function of this bot is to repeat the talking points of left-wing media as truth and to give no ground between the media's talking points and any nuance on an issue. Thus, it is not within his capacity as a bot to deviate from The Party script. He is immune to reason because he is a stock character. His existence in UP is literally a joke that someone came up with. That, or he's just fucking retarded. ;D
Seb
Member
Tue Jul 12 04:46:24
CC:

Fair enough - I am assuming by "sceptical" Habebe means an assessment in his words "it is highly unlikely".

If you mean it in the sense of "open to question" - yes. It is possible it is a fraud. There is no strong reason to think it is a fraud though.
Seb
Member
Tue Jul 12 04:48:06
I love how you are so crazed that you literally cannot conceive that I do not have a party affiliation in the US.
Cherub Cow
Member
Tue Jul 12 04:57:32
[The Party Script Bot]: "I love how you are so crazed that you literally cannot conceive that I do not have a party affiliation in the US."

Nice straw man.
A competent person (not Seb) would notice that I did not make any such connection here between Seb and exclusively U.S. party politics. Seb, being mentally weak, *assumed* that "The Party" meant exclusively the DNC. In reality, "The Party" here is the world Marxists, with the DNC merely being the U.S. chapter of a left-wing phenomenon. The propaganda signals emitted by these totalitarians is nearly identical across borders because they are all using the same ESG/DIE Marxist framework.

..
"I am assuming by "sceptical" Habebe means an assessment in his words "it is highly unlikely""

Another bad assumption.

"If you mean it in the sense of "open to question" - yes. It is possible it is a fraud. There is no strong reason to think it is a fraud though."

Oof. Makes a semi-rational statement only to immediately undermine it by once again putting his faith in the word of one single activist doctor who has not been confirmed by the person on the other line or by any evidentiary trail. This person was indeed designed for MeToo propaganda and the DIE belief system — he will believe the narratives that seem to fit with The Party's needs.
Seb
Member
Tue Jul 12 05:38:56
"In reality, "The Party" here is the world Marxists"

Lol. Like I said, so ingrained in your own world view that you literally cannot conceive of people that exist outside of it.

If I was a Marxist, I would of course believe that such a concept of global "parties" made sense. However, I do not - a fact that you find impossible to digest.
Cherub Cow
Member
Tue Jul 12 05:54:46
[The Party Script Bot]: "If I was a Marxist, I would of course believe that such a concept of global "parties" made sense. However, I do not - a fact that you find impossible to digest."

Another straw man argument.
I am calling you a useful idiot of the Marxists, not a self-aware Marxist. For instance, you have previously supported CRT despite the fact that it is part of the ESG/DIE Marxist strategy. This means you have expressed Marxist affinities whether or not you call yourself a Marxist. This is similar to how tw supports the world totalitarians, perhaps unknowingly, by engaging in his TDS, which directs him to engage in Two Minutes Hate for other targets of The Party. You are both proof-of-concept for susceptibility to the Marxist signal, given that you merely repeat the Marxist talking points without knowing the source.

So it is not at all surprising that you, when semi-conscious, claim not to support a global *Party* (not "parties", as you further misstated). Similarly, many of the people who voted for Biden decry Biden's effect on the economy while seemingly not understanding that this was Biden's stated policy and was an inevitable result of putting him into power. Propagandized people such as yourself cannot see beyond the limits of your mental myopia and so believe yourselves to be blameless for the holes you have drilled in the ship.
Seb
Member
Tue Jul 12 06:28:55
I see, so, I am unconsciously toeing a party line, while consciously espousing the idea that party politics is a contextual affair.

You know who *else* spends a lot of time accusing other people of false consciousness...

"For instance, you have previously supported CRT despite the fact that it is part of the ESG/DIE Marxist strategy."

And, please, tell me... is the ESG/DIE Marxist strategy in the room with us now?

Aside from this being a case of "Hitler was a vegetarian!" nonsense, it's demented conspiratorial thinking where you try and wrap up all the upsetting things into a conspiracy against you.

" Similarly, many of the people who voted for Biden decry Biden's effect on the economy while seemingly not understanding that this was Biden's stated policy and was an inevitable result of putting him into power"

See, there you go again. I might as well be accusing you of dementedly propping up Johnson faction in the forth-coming Uxbridge by election. It's utterly parochial small minded nonsense. Not many people outside of your country care that much.

" Propagandized people such as yourself cannot see beyond the limits of your mental myopia"

No self-awareness whatsoever!
Cherub Cow
Member
Tue Jul 12 07:41:11
[The Party Script Bot]: "I see, so, I am unconsciously toeing a party line, while consciously espousing the idea that party politics is a contextual affair."

Holy straw man arguments.

"You know who *else* spends a lot of time accusing other people of false consciousness..."

Oo! Another straw man argument!

"it's demented conspiratorial thinking where you try and wrap up all the upsetting things into a conspiracy against you."

Oo, *another* straw man argument!!

"I might as well be accusing you of dementedly propping up Johnson faction in the forth-coming Uxbridge by election. It's utterly parochial small minded nonsense."

Oo, another!!! And a misrepresentation based on a false premise! Nicely done! :D

"No self-awareness whatsoever!"

lol, correct — you have none :D

This is the best Seb meltdown thread evar :D :D :D
• The evidence denial,
• the straw man arguments,
• the deflections,
• the lashing out,
• the desperate search for a red herring that can get people off track so that he can't be pinned down to his initial failures..

Too perfect :D
Habebe
Member
Tue Jul 12 12:05:01
Even now with the state attorney generals trying to find out, not a single report anywhere.

This just goes to show you again that media outlets rarely independently check their sources.

Also that Seb is a man of faith and just beleives whatever suits his narrative.
williamthebastard
Member
Tue Jul 12 13:01:33
Its actually called attorneys general, not attorney generals. Learnt that the hard way doing a job
Habebe
Member
Tue Jul 12 14:37:26
I stand corrected*
Habebe
Member
Tue Jul 12 14:56:45
In American English, attorneys general is the correct plural form. The British prefer attorney-generals.

Of course the Sebs will argue otherwise...lol
Seb
Member
Tue Jul 12 15:08:42
A box with a glass front sits on Cherub Cows desk. It has a wax seal embossed with a legend "break seal in emergency".

Cherub cow stares pensively at a screen, then out the window. Their eyes narrow in determination. Yes. Yes, now is the time. Now is the time fortold. There is no other choice. They break the seal. Inside a slip of paper.

Their forehead creases in concentration, then relaxes in relief.

Yes. Yes - this is the answer the ancestors left in their wisdom for this very day. The invocation is powerful and will ward off evil!

Their hands reach quickly for the keyboard, as the words appear quickly, black against the white backdrop: "straw man!".



Seb
Member
Tue Jul 12 15:10:25
Habebe:

[Citation needed]

Like I said, do the work or her the results from someone who has done the work. Meanwhile you are but a stopped clock.
Habebe
Member
Tue Jul 12 15:18:48
CINCINNATI (WXIX) - Ohio Attorney General Dave Yost says there is “not a whisper” of evidence to backup a story that claims a 10-year-old Ohio girl who became pregnant after she was raped had to go to Indiana to get an abortion following the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade.

Yost appeared on FOX News’ “Jesse Watters Primetime” Monday to discuss the story that captured national headlines and was mentioned by President Joe Biden during an executive order signing on abortion access.

News
Watch LIVE
ADVERTISEMENT
‘Not a whisper’ of evidence to show 10-year-old Ohio rape victim got abortion in Indiana: AG Yost tells FOX News
President Biden talked about the reported abortion on July 8.
The story of a 10-year-old from Ohio who had to travel across state lines to get an abortion...
The story of a 10-year-old from Ohio who had to travel across state lines to get an abortion was mentioned by President Joe Biden on July 8.(Arizona's Family)
By Jared Goffinet
Published: Jul. 12, 2022 at 2:15 PM EDT|Updated: 2 hours ago
CINCINNATI (WXIX) - Ohio Attorney General Dave Yost says there is “not a whisper” of evidence to backup a story that claims a 10-year-old Ohio girl who became pregnant after she was raped had to go to Indiana to get an abortion following the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade.

Yost appeared on FOX News’ “Jesse Watters Primetime” Monday to discuss the story that captured national headlines and was mentioned by President Joe Biden during an executive order signing on abortion access.

Just last week, it was reported that a 10-year-old girl was a rape victim — 10 years old — and she was forced to have to travel out of state to Indiana to seek to terminate the pregnancy and maybe save her life.

President Biden.
The story Biden refers to was published by the Indianapolis Star on July 1 with the headline, “Patients head to Indiana for abortion services as other states restrict care.”

ADVERTISEMENT
Written by Shari Rudavsky and Rachel Fradette, the story sources Dr. Caitlin Bernard, an Indianapolis obstetrician-gynecologist.

The report claims Bernard got a call from a child abuse doctor in Ohio, saying she had a 10-year-old patient who was six weeks and three days pregnant. In Ohio, abortions are banned after the first six weeks of pregnancy.

The July 1 story said, “the girl soon was on her way to Indiana to Bernard’s care.”

Attorney General Yost explained to Watters on Monday that a case like the one reported by the IndyStar would have launched an immediate investigation.


News
Watch LIVE
ADVERTISEMENT
‘Not a whisper’ of evidence to show 10-year-old Ohio rape victim got abortion in Indiana: AG Yost tells FOX News
President Biden talked about the reported abortion on July 8.
The story of a 10-year-old from Ohio who had to travel across state lines to get an abortion...
The story of a 10-year-old from Ohio who had to travel across state lines to get an abortion was mentioned by President Joe Biden on July 8.(Arizona's Family)
By Jared Goffinet
Published: Jul. 12, 2022 at 2:15 PM EDT|Updated: 2 hours ago
CINCINNATI (WXIX) - Ohio Attorney General Dave Yost says there is “not a whisper” of evidence to backup a story that claims a 10-year-old Ohio girl who became pregnant after she was raped had to go to Indiana to get an abortion following the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade.

Yost appeared on FOX News’ “Jesse Watters Primetime” Monday to discuss the story that captured national headlines and was mentioned by President Joe Biden during an executive order signing on abortion access.

Just last week, it was reported that a 10-year-old girl was a rape victim — 10 years old — and she was forced to have to travel out of state to Indiana to seek to terminate the pregnancy and maybe save her life.

President Biden.
The story Biden refers to was published by the Indianapolis Star on July 1 with the headline, “Patients head to Indiana for abortion services as other states restrict care.”

ADVERTISEMENT
Written by Shari Rudavsky and Rachel Fradette, the story sources Dr. Caitlin Bernard, an Indianapolis obstetrician-gynecologist.

The report claims Bernard got a call from a child abuse doctor in Ohio, saying she had a 10-year-old patient who was six weeks and three days pregnant. In Ohio, abortions are banned after the first six weeks of pregnancy.

The July 1 story said, “the girl soon was on her way to Indiana to Bernard’s care.”

Attorney General Yost explained to Watters on Monday that a case like the one reported by the IndyStar would have launched an immediate investigation.

ADVERTISEMENT
Yost said, “There is no case request for analysis that looks anything like this.”

Watters asked Yost if it is against the law in Ohio for a doctor, like the one referenced by the IndyStar, not to report a child rape case to police.

The Ohio attorney general says yes, that would be against the law, and the Ohio doctor would be prosecuted for not reporting the rape.

http://www...ndiana-ag-yost-tells-fox-news/
Habebe
Member
Tue Jul 12 15:21:01
Some double copied, if its an issue I left the link.
Seb
Member
Wed Jul 13 07:30:41
So, which thread do you want to run with Habebe?
Jesse Malcolm Barack
Member
Wed Jul 13 08:41:24
Cherub Cow and habebe are just fox news robots at this point
Seb
Member
Wed Jul 13 10:04:10
JMB:

Bzzt Bzzt strawman! bot! bzzzt!
Habebe
Member
Wed Jul 13 11:30:06
Seb, Doesnt matter.


It seems a settled issue at this point.
Seb
Member
Wed Jul 13 14:18:34
Indeed not habebe.

https://eu.indystar.com/story/news/2022/07/13/ohio-man-charged-rape-10-year-old-led-indiana-abortion/10048529002/

A man has now been charged.

So...
Jesse Malcolm Barack
Member
Wed Jul 13 14:28:00
"rape doesn't exist because it makes Republicans who force children who were raped to have their rapists baby look bad" - habebe and cherub cow
Habebe
Member
Wed Jul 13 14:29:10
So...

Now it has corroborating evidence making it a more believable story.

Doesn't mean I was a CT to be skeptical.
Habebe
Member
Wed Jul 13 14:31:18
Fuentes.... Seems an earlier suspicion of mine was also at play.
Seb
Member
Wed Jul 13 14:57:11
Habebe:

Yeah it does.

You threw all critical faculties out of the window.

You accepted at face value the wapo's claim it was a single source story.

The wapo had no way of knowing what corroboration the star had done.

There were obvious reasons that even if the star was going to share sources with the wapo (a competitor, lol no!) that it would not do so.

There were obvious deficiencies in the wapo fact check - I pointed them out.

And even if the wapo article wasn't hugely flawed, there were plenty of reasons for the AG not to know - and here's the kicker - he actually *told you that* - "we have a decentralised system here" or words to that effect.

There were a myriad of good reasons for why you didn't have the whole thing wrapped up in a neat bow and I *told you that*, instead of listening to those and using your critical faculties, you engaged in group think instead.

And that is what to are doing now.
Seb
Member
Wed Jul 13 14:58:21
*if the star *wanted to share details of sources* it would not do so.
Habebe
Member
Wed Jul 13 15:45:36
"You accepted at face value the wapo's claim it was a single source story."

The Indy star said their source was Dr. bernard when questioned. That's a single source.A poor one at that.

Yes this turned out to be true (99.9%) but we can say that now ONLY AFTER supporting evidence, which I said from the begining.

Seb
Member
Wed Jul 13 16:19:51
Habebe:


Yeah, that's their source, but that doesn't mean it is their only point of corroboration. If they had partnered with a local paper in Ohio, identified charges that matched details of the story, got off record confirmation, that's sufficient to publish.

They might not give further details until they had on-record confirmation. But got them to be confident the story is true, they only need off the record confirmation

That's normal.
Seb
Member
Wed Jul 13 16:21:09
I mean basically you are just at this point parroting this meaningless "single source story" while slightly conflating the issue of a human source Vs separate corroborating sources of confirmation (one can be the other, but not necessarily always so).
Seb
Member
Wed Jul 13 16:22:20
And you yourself had already put forward a reason why they might not be able to disclose their confirmatory details.

So it was obviously foolish of you to ignore what you knew to be true to repeat an obviously flawed claim made by the wapo.
Habebe
Member
Wed Jul 13 16:37:33
Where did they claim any corroborating sources other than today?
murder
Member
Wed Jul 13 16:42:32

This is why you don't start "I told you so" threads.

Habebe
Member
Wed Jul 13 16:47:41
Murder, I never said it didn't happen, I said I was Right to be skeptical.

I was even correct about him being a protected class by the left IF it was true.

This evidence all but verifies the rape occurred. The very evidence I said would do so from day one.
Jesse Malcolm Barack
Member
Wed Jul 13 16:53:58
Oh man this whole thread is just Habebe self owning himself after it all turned out to be true lol
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