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Utopia Talk / Politics / Crypto thread 7/16/2022
Habebe
Member
Sat Jul 16 22:45:02
Curious how Nhill's test turned out with the burner Twitter account.
McKobb
Member
Sat Jul 16 22:54:54
which one is that?
Habebe
Member
Sat Jul 16 23:06:38
Member Fri Jul 15 21:15:34
Nim/Habebe

Promising new blockchain being launched tomorrow (testnet):

http://mir...pJ7_JyFPt5JuhBXGQ3_lHNVEZAgUW8

Will see how my research goes, but I like it in principle. Wanted to post here because there's an opportunity right now to get in on the testnet, which can be a rewarding experience in the form of airdrops.

Gonna try and hunt down their code now.
nhill
Member Fri Jul 15 21:19:52
No code available, risky to get involved as they ask for your Twitter account to join the testnet.

But, again, it is sound in principle. I used a burner Twitter account and I'll let you know if it's legit tomorrow.

From the crypto ER thread (it maxed to 100, still on the thread list)
Habebe
Member
Sat Jul 16 23:08:25
The link wouldn't work for me.
nhill
Member
Sat Jul 16 23:29:08
I didn't receive the testnet coins, but apparently it was real and others received them. Unsure why. May have signed up too late.

Either way, I'm going to continue to keep an eye on the project. Sparse details at this point.
nhill
Member
Sat Jul 16 23:31:44
They may have also noticed it was a burner Twitter account, which would make sense. I haven't used it for years.

I didn't want to link my main Twitter accounts as it would be a good way to phish wallet addresses.
LazyCommunist
Member
Sun Jul 17 04:51:22
"NFT is the next big thing, we will all get riiiiiich"

http://www...pensea-nft-layoffs-web3-crypto


Giant NFT marketplace OpenSea lays off about 20 percent of its staff


With NFT sales down and more competition entering, OpenSea is cutting back
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Sun Jul 17 07:26:58
I read a little about it, interesting. Thanks!
LazyCommunist
Member
Sun Jul 17 11:57:48
Putin knows best!

http://www.protocol.com/bulletins/russia-ban-crypto-payments


Russian President Vladimir Putin approved a law Friday prohibiting the use of digital assets as forms of payments in Russia.

The legislation will reportedly prohibit the transfer or acceptance of ”digital financial assets as a consideration for transferred goods, performed works, rendered services, as well as in any other way that allows one to assume payment for goods (works, services) by a digital financial asset, except as otherwise provided by federal laws,” effectively banning the use of crypto or NFTs as forms of payments.

The bill was submitted to the State Duma in June by the head of the legislature's Committee on Financial Markets, Anatoly Aksakov, and signed into law by Putin Friday. The new law also includes a provision that requires crypto exchanges and providers refuse transactions in which digital assets could be construed as a form of payment.
nhill
Member
Sun Jul 17 11:59:24
Wait, so Russia using crypto makes you think crypto is bad, and Russia not using crypto is...making you think crypto is bad?

Make up your mind kiddo. ;)
Habebe
Member
Sun Jul 17 12:22:03
My suspicion is Putin nwantsnto srive up.demand for the ruble, and eliminate as much capital outflow as possible.
Habebe
Member
Sun Jul 17 12:22:54
My typing is worse than usual.

Damn. Think im gonna clean the yard up and go fishing.
nhill
Member
Sun Jul 17 12:26:29
Agree that is looks to be for driving up ruble demand and stopping capital outflow.

Clean the yard? In this heat? Don't remind me. ;P

Enjoy tho. Hope you catch a whopper.
Habebe
Member
Sun Jul 17 12:41:17
We finally got a break in heat/humidity.

Now it's just a matter of getting up, I know I'll feel better getting some fresh air.
Habebe
Member
Sun Jul 17 13:04:52
Ok, picked up the kids toys, moves the trampoline and some odds and ends the kids drug out, raked up some leaves, need to finish raking, burn them when they dry out and see whack around the swing set.

Taking a break already. Ill work on spurts, got til Wednesday they are on vacation.
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Sun Jul 17 13:13:49
It’s not just that Russia has limited on their end, Russia simply isn’t able to import all the things they used to due to sanctions. I don’t know that it counts as sign of Russia persevering against all odds. And the brain drain this has led to is staggering, a lot of educated Russian dual citizens will evaporate out of the Russian work force. I saw some figures from a Russian IT union or something, that 70k or 10% of their IT work force had left by march. Those numbers will grow as more realize things are not going back to normal anytime soon. Took 6 years after the revolution until my parents decided to leave.
Habebe
Member
Sun Jul 17 15:16:41
I was reading a few weeks ago that Russia and China had both seen mass exodus of Millionaires fleeing to western Europe and the US/Canada IIRC.

Ill check if I can find it. But the gist was anyone with means is fleeing to the west.
Habebe
Member
Sun Jul 17 15:21:26
http://www...f-millionaires-worldwide-2022/

The UAE was a top winner. The Ukraine lost 42%, Russia lost 15%.

China showed only 1% loss, but it was 10k HNWI's.
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Mon Jul 18 11:27:04
Have I missed some news about MATIC?

Also we have not had a bad reaction to the 9,1% CPI figures. Is this the new normal?
Habebe
Member
Mon Jul 18 11:31:40
Eath pushing over 14.

Everything is up today. Except MEREO, glad I sold, glad to see it drop to jump back in. Gonna do the same with XELA.
nhill
Member
Mon Jul 18 11:38:58
It's the new "well that's about as bad as I thought" ;)

Market has a probability for the next rate hike at 30% for a 100 bps raise. We should see a rally into FOMC if 75 bps continues to look more likely.

But this is mostly procedural. Market is fragile right now, but there hasn't been any new bad news for a while. Just old bad news (high inflation) people had been expecting.

One bad macro headline and we're going to see new lows. Granted, it goes the other way too. A convincingly bullish macro narrative could cause an intense rally. These conditions are the toughest to trade because volatility in both directions is looming.

MATIC seems to be pumped by trend followers as it showed a lot of relative strength the past few weeks. AFAIK nothing big happening there.

I'm still bearish and think this is a relief rally. Would have been a good swing. But there's a lot of liquidations still from the 3AC fiasco that I doubt have been executed.

The thing I'm most excited about is $PTP and $NEAR. 3AC had a ton of $AVAX and $NEAR posted as collateral, and AFAIK it hasn't been all liquidated. They were also seed investors in $PTP and have unlocks coming up that will most likely get dumped.

There was an unlock yesterday and it got dumped. PTP is down 11% vs. $AVAX. Overall it's up in USD but that's only because AVAX had a good day.

The reason I say excited instead of worried is that we may get very cheap prices on $PTP and $NEAR soon as 3AC liquidations execute.

Just hope they can liquidate before the macro bottom gets formed (thinking BTC around 12-15K) so that it doesn't result in constant sell pressure.

Don't want to be baited into this bearish relief rally, but it was nice. Low volume so I don't have any conviction on it, but nice to see some pumps again
nhill
Member
Mon Jul 18 11:44:42
http://twitter.com/0xPolygon/status/1549016976747626496

Hm maybe $MATIC is pumping because of this? Big news two days from now. Buy the rumor, sell the news?

Either way, I'm starting to see a ton of people talk about buying $MATIC, which tends to make me think the pump is almost over and late buyers will be exit liquidity.
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Mon Jul 18 13:19:51
That would explain the Matic pump.

So we have a bottom, but it is made of suger glass. I am new to this, all I know is risk on environment and money printing ;)
Things look so bad macro economically and (geo)politically. This year and next we will also see crypto regulations in USA and EU.
murder
Member
Wed Jul 20 18:19:45

Typical Elon Musk bullshit.

====================================

CNBC International @CNBCi

Tesla has dumped 75% of its bitcoin holdings a year after touting 'long-term potential'

====================================

Watcher.Guru @WatcherGuru

BREAKING: Tesla, $TSLA earning reports reveals they sold 75% of their #Bitcoin worth $936 million.

====================================

http://twitter.com/CNBCi/status/1549876086976258050

Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Thu Jul 21 05:17:27
I am a little tired of hearing his name, like one of those summer plague songs that radio stations burn out. Over exposure is a thing. He needs to be quiet for a while, focus on the rockets and Mars. Let others handle crypto and social media. And for fuck sake stop having kids like a rat!
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Thu Jul 21 05:18:24
Weird this was for Elon thread…

Thanks habebe.
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Thu Jul 21 05:19:27
ffs this was apparently ”Elon thread”?! It’s noon so can’t blame it on not being awake. Brain damage?
nhill
Member
Thu Jul 21 09:20:42
haha. yeah I'm sick of the dude too.

we get it, he's an eccentric billionaire that spends 50% of his free time trolling the world. cute, but getting old
nhill
Member
Wed Jul 27 13:01:44
75 bps, let’s rock
nhill
Member
Fri Jul 29 12:45:54
Most of the market is red, but $PTP is green.

Are people finally catching onto my precious gem?

Stay tuned...

I was hoping for at least 1 more buying opportunity around $0.09 and I'm sticking to that thesis.

Either way, I have a ton of farming rewards to ride (about $200,000 worth) and a hibernate NFT to take profits. So I'll be good.

But one more huge buy would be juicy. Still waiting for my July 4th dumperino. Although the FOMC and GDP numbers appear to be "buy the news", so that put a dent in my thesis.

Still highly doubt the bottom is in and think this will be an epic bull trap relief rally.

A solid weekly close above 31-32K would convince me that the trend has changed. And, from there, another attempt to test of Bitcoin ATH over the next 3-6 months would be reasonable. But I bet it would be a failed test and we start to consolidate in a 30-50K macro range until three things:

* BTC Halving
* Fed starts to reduce interest rates
* Fed starts buying bonds again

^once those conditions are met, a real bull run above BTC ATH is feasible. Maybe to $200K or so, but 90K at least.
nhill
Member
Fri Jul 29 14:54:59
Looks toppy. This will be the 5th time Bitcoin rallied off the "bottom" by over 20% during the bear market.

Nice little relief rally for a swing, if you're into that. But it's highly doubtful it'll be the macro bottom.

Let's see...
nhill
Member
Fri Jul 29 14:56:37
I will concede that the market structure was cleaner on this "bottom" (series of higher lows). But that's about all I can see that's different.

Either way, patiently waiting. No need to rush.
nhill
Member
Fri Jul 29 14:59:33
26K max, about 7% from here, is the upside I see. Downside is -30% to -50%. Or more. Just not a good R/R for me here. Good short opportunity with a tight stop and possible re-entry at 25.9K to front run.
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Fri Jul 29 15:17:56
You describe my feeling, but with words and numbers :)
Are we going? Naah. Or are we? Naaah. Ambiguity about the direction has increased, more of the market seems to think Powell has promised them what Hayes was talking about, that he will soon shut it down.
nhill
Member
Fri Jul 29 15:23:39
Yep, pretty accurate. Gotta keep reevaluating the thesis, but still don't see any reason to change. But I'm ok with being wrong. Being wrong on your entry is fine as long as you have a contingency plan.

For me, I don't mind missing out on 40-50% while waiting for a trend flip to invalidate my thesis. Better than jumping the gun and losing 50%. Losses are much harder to recover (would take +100% to get back to solvent), and a fair amount of my portfolio is illiquid coins right now. I would move the market too much if I just YOLOed it.
nhill
Member
Fri Jul 29 15:32:36
^this type of talk is why murder keeps trying (and failing) to insult about me selling before the bulk of the crash and claiming "hope you guys sold too!"

That didn't actually happen tho, I pulled the post from last year crash and I informed everyone that I closed my positions the night before the worst of it (then I rubbed it in WoO's face lol, because he was failing to troll too).

And, even if it had happened (it didn't), I post my thoughts transparently and point out invalidation points ahead of time.

Not that it matters, as it's obvious murder doesn't understand how many things work beyond his rocking chair at this point. I see the haters as a fan club at this point (you can feel the jealousy in their comments and the way they reach, so it's more complimentary).

Rugian said one other thing that I'd like to clear the air. Something about me "greedily obsessed with wealth". Which is hilarious because I live off a paltry low 6-figure sum and live half the year in an RV precisely because I don't care about wealth and having. Crypto has never been directly about wealth (you can obtain generational wealth in times like now, and I did point that out for others). I see things differently. It's two things:

* A fascinating new programming paradigm for me to learn and use.
* A global 24/7 massively multiplayer strategy game where I rack up high scores on how many tokens I can accumulate.

That's it. Wealth was a side effect of this behavior.
nhill
Member
Fri Jul 29 15:38:18
And let me be clear here. The insults aren't what I'm looking to alleviate here. As I said, I like them. Successful people attract a crowd of haters.

My only problem is inaccurate information about who I am and what I actually did. Resolved now, let them chirp ;)
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Fri Jul 29 15:49:26
I don't think murder is real. He is actually one of the trolls CC was referring to. My dude, you "doxed" yourself, I asked murder what he does for a living, to analogize something for him about risk and predictions and *crickets*. Too close apparently *shrugs*
nhill
Member
Fri Jul 29 15:55:35
Often, I suspect he was a parody account that manifested itself into becoming a parody of itself. Usually he's semi-normal but then has just off the wall stuff every once in a while. Like wanting to murder all jews and 1% of the population every year, and then, at the same time, claiming to be a champion of dark skinner people (while insulting my dark skinned wife nonetheless) and white knight of women. He's either parody to himself or parody to us. Not sure which yet ;)
nhill
Member
Fri Jul 29 15:59:23
My philosophy behind doxxing is to do it. The sooner you act like everything you say is public and attached to your real life identity, the sooner you'll operate in a matter conducive to your long term health and well-being.

I know how quantum computers work. I've written code for them. Everything we've ever done on the internet, private message or otherwise, will eventually be decrypted and analyzed. And all anonymous accounts (through pattern recognition and IP addresses) will be associated with that identity also. Our only hope is that they just use it for ads.

Act as if every online you do is public. Then manage your privacy in an analog way (along with adding noise to the system). There is no other practical method. The people that will be the most suspicious, on a long enough timeframe, are the ones that think they are avoiding the specter of surveillance.
nhill
Member
Fri Jul 29 16:31:59
The only thing I don't fully doxx is all my crypto addresses. But that's for personal safety, not privacy. It's public info to the govt already because I filed taxes with my PnL figures.
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Fri Jul 29 16:49:54
I am semi anonymous on UP. The piece are out there, even without a quantum computer ;) some people have my online contacts. I think at this point it is more a tradition :)

"Act as if every online you do is public."

Wise words. There was a time when I was taking much larger part of the toxic parlance of UP, as it was customary I thought, I even managed to find a thread where you and I bounce heads :) About a possible swine flue pandemic of all things.

http://utopiaforums.com/boardthread?id=politics&thread=17001

Toxicity aside, I am surprised my reaction to it was the same as for covid, "With these things you are better safe than sorry."

I kinda remember this thread.
nhill
Member
Fri Jul 29 16:55:02
Haha, figured there was a time. I've always been a hot head.

I remember not thinking the Swine Flu was going to be a huge deal, but wasn't very invested in caring about it at the time. Did not realize I was active in UP at the time, as I've been very intermittent over the years (I've left for a decade once, and multiple years a few different times).

But hey, live and learn. We've grown since then!
nhill
Member
Fri Jul 29 17:00:10
I've definitely said things here in UP that I would rather have not done. But I did it with the same philosophy in mind at the time. Just so happened to care less about what is made public about me at times.

Plus UP is pretty obvious that basically everyone is trolling everyone else and often acting like caricatures of their actual self. Certainly some dirt could be taken out of context, though. Whoopsie.
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Fri Jul 29 17:16:45
I read that thread and I laughed at what an asshole I was. I blame it on "this being UP", it sort of became the style of banter, I grew out of it. So if I use that kind of language today, I mean it :P
nhill
Member
Fri Jul 29 17:31:03
Haha. Sometimes I fall into it still if the thread is already like that. But I definitely have a more cocksure tone in UP than anywhere else online (or real life), due to me starting posting here during puberty and keeping my character relatively consistent. IRL I've disconnected from everyone in my teenage years so I don't have many carryover traits.
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Sun Jul 31 09:51:52
Hmm reminded of RNDR again. This a working business model, I have no idea the value of the token or if there ultimately is a need for it, but until things start to manifest differently, RNDR has a place in the portfolio.
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Sun Jul 31 09:54:46
In a way, if metaverse and crypto gaming will come to rely on Render for their arts and graphics, RNDR could serve as an index, the way Taiwan semiconducter co. is for tech. Upside being that RNDR does all kinds of rendering. Gotta keep an eye on the decentralization progress there.
nhill
Member
Mon Aug 01 12:06:20
It looks like a great project at the bird's level. Read the whitepaper last year and it mostly made sense to me. Pretty weak whitepaper in its technical descriptions but it was written almost 5 years ago.

I'm worried about tokenomics here due to the thin liquidity. Looks like most of it is off-chain and the deepest order book is on some exchange I've never heard of before, DCoin. Any idea about that exchange?

It's a bit sketchy to have an unknown exchange be the biggest order book, but maybe it's just one I've not seen yet.

My other problem is that there's only about $500,000 of liquidity on-chain, and that's sustaining a $200,000,000 market cap.

The other weird thing is their Discord only has 800 members but there's a 200M market cap and 60K Twitter followers. Makes me think they bought followers or something like that. Not necessarily a categorically bad thing if that's their marketing strategy, but it's a yellow flag.

These are the things I would research to be sure the project is sustainable. It appears to have been started by an already existing rendering company, so I would mostly rule out anything ridiculous like a rug. I'm more concerned about stability and adoption.

Theoretically it has a good setup. People need rendering power & GPUs, and their system allows you to purchase $RNDR tokens to utilize it in a decentralized network. There may be some tokenomics or marketing issues, but I like that the value is captured through something other than swaps.

One thing I didn't see at first glance is whether or not there's incentives to hold the token, such as staking.
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Tue Aug 02 03:58:09
Oh my, that liquidity is odd. I have never heard of that exchange. The good faith version is that they are trying to probe this tokenization thing out, while not bet the reputation of the company? I don’t know. I mean, rendering isn’t exactly rocket science just computing, so perhaps one shouldn’t put too much value in the fact that they have done the graphics for big budget production, that is more a questioning of having the right contacts in the business and good marketing. Hmm your due diligence is definitly food for thought, may be best to view RNDR from a distance still. The fact that they have JJ Abrams on their advisory is a plus, but who knows what really means. Rahm Emanuels brother Ari is also on there.
murder
Member
Tue Aug 02 19:15:51

Bloomberg @business

MicroStrategy co-founder and Bitcoin billionaire Michael Saylor will no longer serve as CEO and will assume the new role of executive chairman. The company also reported a second-quarter loss of about $1 billion

http://twitter.com/business/status/1554571077459890176

murder
Member
Tue Aug 02 19:19:09

Not financial advice, but Michael Saylor should sell all his shares and buy bitcoin. Then he should sell everything else he owns and buy more bitcoin. And then he should borrow as much money as he can and buy still more bitcoin.

murder
Member
Tue Aug 02 21:36:42

Techmeme @Techmeme

An unknown attacker has been draining Solana and USDC wallets; blockchain audit firm OtterSec says 5K+ Solana wallets have been drained in the past few hours (@dragonwolftech/Decrypt)

http://twitter.com/Techmeme/status/1554648705654870018

Habebe
Member
Wed Aug 03 00:32:16
Solana is supposedly being looted per @unusualwhales
nhill
Member
Wed Aug 03 10:07:17
Looks like a bug with some of the wallet software, blockchain itself appears to be fine.
nhill
Member
Wed Aug 03 10:15:15
also lol @ murder. saylor is a legend. to his credit when he told people to sell their house to buy bitcoin it was around $12,000. so anyone that listened to him that month could still double their money in fiat terms, should they desire.
nhill
Member
Wed Aug 03 10:15:55
that in no way excuses his terribly irresponsible advice, merely provides color to it
nhill
Member
Wed Aug 03 11:41:28
Incoming airdrop for $vePTP holders:
http://twitter.com/Vulturefi/status/1554432598994145287

Probably not worth much, but it's free shekels. Probably a few weeks before it drops. I made wallets for all my kids and future grandkids with NFTs equipped to keep accumulating $vePTP, will be curious to see how that plays out. I did it to be able to claim bribes once they are released, but maybe I'll get some airdrop action on the accounts.

Been pretty good airdrop season this year. Between the OP, VELO, DIFF, and EVMOS drops it has been worth about $10,000. Don't really need it so I'm just farming the drops. Velodrome in particular has been hot, up over 200% the past week.

These are the advantages of getting plugged into a burgeoning ecosystem early. :) Can just farm it forever and see how it plays.
nhill
Member
Mon Aug 08 10:26:04
This looks like an underside retest and dump for Ethereum, but BTC hasn't even retraced the last dump. So I see two scenarios:

1. BTC rallies to 27-28K to test the HTF resistance and then everything starts to unwind. That would probably put ETH up to 2.2-2.4K or so from here.

2. ETH fails on this resistance test and we all go to goblin town.

Either way my farming blueprint is working out on it's initial tranche (20%, still farming 80% stables).

PTP, ATOM, AVAX, OSMO, NEAR, BNB, SOL, DPX, ETH, BTC. They've all done pretty well. DPX is the stud of the pack so far.
nhill
Member
Mon Aug 08 14:59:51
I just can't stop feeling bullish on the Platypus ecosystem. Like we get a chance to be in on the ground floor for Curve.

Hummus, another authorized platypus fork that has an airdrop for $vePTP holders, announced profit sharing on Metis this week.

I had basically written the protocol off for a while, but it rallied 700% on the news before retracing half of the violent move.

Definitely one to keep an eye on. It's interesting to see what happens when some of these PTP forks start delivering on things. Makes me think PTP will have an insane rally when gauges + bribes come into play.

The Platypus team takes things very slow and very safe. Extra audits and their code is very thorough. An interesting side effect of their thorough checks in the code is that it becomes more expensive to use via gas costs. Some operations on Platypus take like 0.03 AVAX that usually take under 0.01 in most protocols. Just interesting to see that trade off with gas price and security. 0.03 AVAX isn't much to speak of right now, but it'll become pretty onerous if AVAX is at $200 USD someday. A good problem I guess.

But man. I gotta hold myself back from aping into PTP. Cool your jets, nhill. Stay diversified.
nhill
Member
Mon Aug 08 15:16:48
Sticking to my plan though. Not going to FOMO. >32K weekly close for BTC with a retest will cause my to pivot to plan B.

For now, my stables are itching to be deployed.

Saw the news today about US government sanctioning Tornado Cash. People are making a big deal of it, but meh. Feel like the writing was on the wall for that for a long time.

That's part of the reason why I left privacy coins out. Last fall I thought privacy coins were going to get a cycle until the bear hit. Mainly thought they'd rally into tax season. But never happened.

And now there's enough regulatory uncertainty to avoid them, at least for me. But $SCRT seems to be the front-runner as I had thought it would be.

$DERO is what I had pegged as the low cap moon shot. Unsure how that'll play out because they've struggled to deliver on their ambitious roadmap (it's so ambitious they use DAG instead of blockchain).
nhill
Member
Mon Aug 08 16:39:02
I also still have $MAGIC (treasure.lol) from last year that I locked risk-free after taking 2X profits on the trade (as in I don't care if it goes to 0 bcuz I already took out profit).

It was worth ~$10,000 when I locked it, and got down to about ~$800 at the worst point. But it went on a tear recently. Tripled in the past few weeks back up to ~$2400.

Other miscellaneous allocations I'm keeping open:

Defi Kingdoms. Dozens of heroes. Should probably sell them as I'm not playing anymore. Also have some farms that I'm not touching. Just letting them ride, no expectation of profit.

Stargate. Bought some STG and took profits, left a little bit to lock for governance.

Velodrome, but that's mainly just the airdrop I'm farming.

Dozens of other dust in random nooks and crannies of blockchains. I swear some day my grand kids will discover significant wealth locked in a forgotten smart contract. I need to come up with a custody plan. The number of wallets and chains at this point is crazy. Probably about 50 different wallets now. Have them all saved on a flash drive.
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Mon Aug 08 20:26:42
Farming PTP, Atom/osmosis, Secret, FTM/Tomb and yes bag holding Defi Kingdoms. I also have some trisolaris, which has rallied quite hard, what with it leveraging NEAR.

I still believe this is a bear market rally, BTC chart looks like the chart pictures you can google that illustrate textbook examples of a long squeeze. Money to be made though, so I am feeling the impatience as well :P
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Mon Aug 08 20:28:00
Is it worth it to buy a cheap NFT for platy? Considering selling my Magicat and use the profits to buy one.
nhill
Member
Mon Aug 08 20:39:45
Definitely a value to be had if you want to accrue voting power.

http://nft.platypus.finance/market#1896

Diligent, Score 11
Attribute: +15 vePTP per hour
Price: 150 PTP

1 staked PTP generates 0.014 vePTP.

This is an INSANE value if you want to access voting power and participate in claiming bribes. It's the same value as staking 1,071 $PTP, but at a price of 150 $PTP.

The cool thing is that the NFT can be traded, but your vePTP cannot. If you unstake you lose it. So the NFT unlocks more liquid voting power at a discount. I bought dozens.
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Wed Aug 10 07:39:26
CPI came in 8.5%, lower than previous month.
Core inflation being the Feds prefered method remained at unchanged at 5.9%

LFG!
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Wed Aug 10 08:07:54
A 16k mass of BTC on the 25K USD range.

nhill
Member
Wed Aug 10 09:09:07
It's bearish that BTC couldn't even break 25K on that news.

It's bullish that alts reacted so strongly, I guess. But to me that just is a function of higher beta and leverage chasing. Alts, from a price action standpoint, are BTC leverage.

So it's a bit neutral to me. Market is going risk-on with alts, but overall, without a strong reclaim of 30-32K, it's all irrelevant. Bear market rally.
nhill
Member
Wed Aug 10 09:10:58
Again, would be happy to be proven wrong. I'm thinking about reducing my risk today, even though I'm only 20% deployed. Seems like an optimum time to take profits and reduce to 15%, maybe 10%. Will mull on it...
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Wed Aug 10 10:30:18
Quite underwhelming.
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Wed Aug 10 10:34:56
Another bullish sign would be that ETH frequently leads the charge. There is the hole merger thing. Have you read Hayes last piece?
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Wed Aug 10 10:37:49
Scenario 1: Fed Pivot + Successful Ethereum Merge (i.e., what I am speculating will happen, and the best case scenario for ETH): ETH @ 5000 USD

Scenario 2: No Fed Pivot + Successful Ethereum Merge: ETH @ 3562 USD

Scenario 3: No Fed Pivot + Unsuccessful Ethereum Merge: ETH @ 1099 USD

Scenario 4: Fed Pivot + Unsuccessful Ethereum Merge: ETH @ 1600 USD

nhill
Member
Wed Aug 10 15:32:55
I haven't read his piece fully yet, good shout. I meant to read it.

I like Arthur, one of my favorite analysts, but I have always danced to the beat of my own drum (while respectfully integrating opposing views where feasible). As for the Ethereum merge, I still have the same position as when we talked about it in April. I think it's a bearish event, and there will be a PoW fork.

Remember when I predicted that months ago? Everyone thought I was insane. Now you can buy $ETHPoW on Bitmex. It's already real. Prediction came true.

That's nothing but bearish too me. Perhaps the merge narrative and PoS burn can overcome it? IDK. Likely it will, but either way people have to choose between accumulating ETH2 or ETHPoW eventually. That's buying power removed no matter how you spin it.

The only ETH I hold is in my Dopex LP.

I think the merge trade is too crowded and full of midcurve takes on the deflationary burn making it a no-brainer. Things pitched by influencers as "no-brainer" are usually traps. But you can play the merge narrative and take profits for sure.

My current strategy is to park my capital for years near the bottom and live off the rewards. ETH is the worst play for that IMO and I'm tired of timing things. :)
nhill
Member
Wed Aug 10 15:40:06
That said, I have an intense competitive nature, and will most likely come up with more strategies over the next years to increase the amount of tokens I can wrack up high scores on, heh. I can't shut that off completely.

Token accumulations aren't even about wealth at this point, I have enough of that. Don't have any extravagant lifestyle aspirations, just not my style. I still wear walmart bought t-shirts from my teenage years simply because they continue to provide utility.

Idk what my endgame will be. Some day I need to turn off the competitive side.

#1 focus remains, and always has been (for pretty much everything in my life), exploring emerging technology. Crypto has more potential for society than AI, but, prior to getting into crypto, AI was my last emerging tech endeavor. Disillusioned from it now.
nhill
Member
Wed Aug 10 16:03:58
The problem with the deflationary narrative is that it's mechanistic. You need equivalent demand for ETH2 as was evident during ETH.

It seems extremely clear at this point that ETHPoW will siphon off some of that activity.

People have a hard time seeing the big picture, but there's tons of moving parts. Ethereum is NOT even deflationary unless there's record levels of volume. But people still parrot that talking point.

I think it's dumb. We'll see. Maybe I'm the dumb one.
nhill
Member
Wed Aug 10 16:17:00
The one tweak I'm currently hot on is derivatives. Still think derivatives are the biggest uncapitalized opportunity in DeFi.

Dopex is cool. I'm obviously sticking with them. Up over 300% already on my initial buy.

But it's such a key opportunity I want to diversify. I think GMX is my next target. I've been diving into them over the past week and the product/code are good. Tokenomics are nice and tight. Cool idea with fee sharing LP tokens with $GLP. Probably the best tokenomics in crypto tbh. Has inspiration from OHM and forks with the way it mints $GLP token instead of swapping for them. Then it has a whole new concept with the escrow and vested $GMX, $esGMX.

I try not to focus too much on tokenomics innovations because you can veer pretty quickly into ponzi territory. But GMX has revenue sharing setup to accrue to the native tokens. It's a real product, and pretty darn neat.

You can open up to 30X leverage on the platform. Fees are pretty high relative to a CEX futures trading, but it's smooth.
nhill
Member
Wed Aug 10 16:27:34
Speaking of timing things ;)

Nice little cup and handle on multiple timeframes for BTC and pretty much all major cryptos.

Maybe this will be it? The final push to 25-26K before the grand dump?

Things look primed.
nhill
Member
Wed Aug 10 16:28:35
(23.9K now)

Not worth longing this final leg to me, but hey. Looks like a setup.
nhill
Member
Wed Aug 10 16:44:02
The target, should the handle play, would be exactly in range. A little over 25K. Should take about 24-48 hours to breakout if it is going to do so.

May set us up for a weekend dumperino, or maybe we crab the weekend and dumperino next week.

Getting more and more convinced this is a bear market rally based on the price action. The tops of these candles are getting absorbed hardcore by sellers.
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Thu Aug 11 10:45:33
As always I appreciate your thoughts. I am not a good drummer so I dance at the tune of an orchestra :)

I heard about GMX some months ago when Taiki did a video on it. One of the things that stuck with me was the fact that you get paid in the native token. Like that a lot.

Bearish invalidation: consolidation above 25.5k?
nhill
Member
Thu Aug 11 11:08:27
I'm looking for above 32K for macro bull trend validation.

Consolidation above 25.5K would invalidate my swing thoughts. I think 25K is a great short target for a swing, but consolidation above 25.5K would invalidate (but watch out for a pesky deviation, if it goes straight up to 26K, probably an even better short).

But it's all a bull trap (one that can be profitable of course) to me, on the macro view, until 32K+ strong price action with retests.

Wish things would move faster, feels like this entire year has been in slow motion. I am still waiting for the big flush I predicted around July 4th, but, at this point, 5 weeks past the date, I am pretty close to folding my cards.
nhill
Member
Thu Aug 11 11:13:21
Cup and handle looks like it hit for BTC. $24,942, within range of the target based on Bulkowski's system.

Measuring the moves based on Bulkowski's system is pretty useful.

http://thepatternsite.com/cup.html

Highly recommend it. He claims his patterns don't work for crypto, but I get the sense that's just because he doesn't care about crypto. They work well in my experience.

I have a few chart books of his from back in the day. Good beach reading!
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Thu Aug 11 13:42:38
Nice like there, a treasure trove of information!

You are right 25.5k is not a long term invalidation.
nhill
Member
Thu Aug 11 14:57:49
For sure! I do take his timeframes with a grain of salt with crypto, because things happen much faster in crypto, plus it trades 24/7.

For example, for the cup and handle the duration is supposed to be from 7 to 65 weeks.

Traditional markets are only open 30 hours a week, compared to 168 hours a week for crypto. So you immediately compress the pattern by around 5X from that alone. Then you combine the fact that crypto is generally more volatile to compress it even more. Which ends up to be 1 order of magnitude.

So 7 weeks in traditional markets would be like 5 days in crypto (48 days minus an order of magnitude...4.8 days).
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Thu Aug 11 16:28:02
While not as detailed break down as yours, it did catch me eye and occur to me that the time frames are for boomer markets :P
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Thu Aug 11 16:29:45
Really has a nice overview and index of different patterns for different occasions and with statistics. Very cool.
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Thu Aug 11 16:43:37
Anyway to go back to the BTC chart, volume dropping, price going no where.

And if I am not mistake the pattern forming since mid July is a rising wedge or a bearish wolf pattern

http://thepatternsite.com/WolfeWaveBear.html

It looks terrible.
nhill
Member
Thu Aug 11 16:50:56
http://i.imgur.com/XTQywdH.png
nhill
Member
Thu Aug 11 16:55:14
The measured move is around 15-16K for the rising wedge we find ourselves in right now.
nhill
Member
Thu Aug 11 17:01:51
My favorite part of his system is he combines experimentally obtained probability with price movement. Pretty ingenious. It's counter-intuitive but seems to work. Patterns that are high probability tend to be the most violent, according to the theory behind the math. Perhaps that's a self-fulfilling prophecy?

The dance between patterns, social behavior, and probability is fascinating. It would make sense that collective human behavior would have a pattern to it, as price is a function of events. Many events are similar in nature (such as accumulation patterns as a reflective pattern of human behavior, e.g. to silently gather a high shake of a company).
nhill
Member
Thu Aug 11 17:02:45
high stake of a company).*
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Thu Aug 11 17:05:16
lol textbook :) the volume drop is visible on the BTC/USD pair, very noticeable the last couple of weeks. I also notice the low volumes it has taken to drop the price during the bigger sell offs.

http://www.tradingview.com/x/7ekfXFZd/
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Thu Aug 11 17:08:32
Yes the stats and the probabilities really puts the site and his work beyond anything else I have come across. I only caught a glimpse that he had an entire psychology section.
nhill
Member
Thu Aug 11 17:14:49
His books are equally great.

Definitely low volume pumps. Classic bearish rally so far. Would like to be wrong even though I'm sidelined. :)
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Fri Aug 12 11:37:13
Well my impatience compelled me to make a trade, I don't want to get stuck in some paralysis mode, so it wast a calculate psychological trade. But not being a complete degen and realizing we are near the tops I only did a 100 USD on NEAR. +2 USD :D

Just went off the momentum swing on the 15 minute time frame as the US markets opened.
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Fri Aug 12 11:37:58
That's a cheese burger trade!
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Fri Aug 12 12:33:18
EVMOS staking has been very profitable. The amount I staked returned 140% O.o. I have no idea why, because I have not followed anything on Evmos. Just staked half as a free lottery ticket.

I claimed it all, restaked half and IBCed the rest to Osmosis, since the recent gravity hack has made it practically impossible to bridge to EVM L1s. Thank god for Atom :)
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Fri Aug 12 12:53:12
sorry I meat Nomad hack. So many hacks, difficult to keep track. ROFL!
nhill
Member
Fri Aug 12 15:21:17
$PTP +36% today. Safe to say that people are catching on now.

EVMOS has been fun. I've more than doubled my initial stake too (in native token terms, relative to fiat it has been flat), and it seems like their validator rewards are going to be super high until people catch onto the eco.

Pretty nice to get airdropped a couple thousand dollars just for using crypto.

Another airdrop I got recently was Paraswap. Apparently all you have to do is use the service and eventually you'll be considered a "loyal user" and get a drop. It was worth $200.

Small amount overall, but it's free money and mounting pretty quickly. The nice thing about drops is I just farm them. Some work out, some don't. They are often a nice surprise over time though. Airdrop dumping also has its place...sometimes I do that. I dumped my $CRYSTAL on the market at $42.
nhill
Member
Fri Aug 12 15:23:55
It's a pretty cool virtuous cycle. I have enough so I don't feel the need to dump tokens for a few thousand dollars fiat.

But people that need the money, it can come in handy. Happy to baghold for those that need to take some profits and live off them. I'm sitting on about $10,000 collectively this year from airdrops. If it goes to 0, doesn't matter to me. Cherry on top.
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