Utopia Talk - Politics - 538-Polling scrutiny

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Utopia Talk / Politics / 538-Polling scrutiny

Habebe
Member Fri Aug 05 19:35:37
Yes yes, they don't poll they just average the polls taken, but what if the polls are shit?

If you average largely shit polls, you pick shit winners.

They have routinely undercounted Republicans since Trump. There os just something that the polls habe a hard time counting R support, my personal hunch is systemic partisanship, but who knows.

So I was looking at gubernatorial polls for PA and the drastic differences in a few weeks, Shapiro(D) seems to have taken a strong lead ahead of Mastriano.

Mastriano being the more "extreme" candidate the Democrats have been funding because they think he will be easier to beat.

But when the race was tied they were likely voter polls, this new rash of polls had RV, which I disregard usually If they are a large shift.

But then 2 other polls of LV also showed Shapiro like 8-10% up.

So I clicked on the info.

I have never heard of Beacon research, but that doesn't mean shit, so apparently 538 analyzed 3 previous polls, all three a perfect score for picking the winner, sounds ok, even if only 3.....

Then they show the polls, 2 out of 3 were 10% off! One 9% something the other 11+

The 2nd poll they were only off by 3.5%

Even with the fluke that's an average of 8% off in their polling.

http://pro...lster-ratings/beacon-research/

The other poll blue something calls him a "Big lie" candidate on their page son I stopped reading there.

Habebe
Member Fri Aug 05 19:49:08
I also regularly watch the podcast where it's blatantly clear that Nate is good at remaining neutral and Gaylen Druke is as well, but in real life is pretty far left.

The rest dont even keep appearances and especially are far liberal city left.

Even the topics they pick anymore, are so left-brain ideas.

Should we discuss the dislike of child sex shows?The economy?(very little) Nah, they have a slew of shows on Jan. 6 hearings and the "extreme" SCOTUS and how that may affect elections.

which leads me to beleive its not intentional, they just can't help themselves.

murder
Member Fri Aug 05 20:03:31

"Should we discuss the dislike of child sex shows?"

If you know of any you should call the police immediately.

Habebe
Member Fri Aug 05 21:10:43
What if its children police officers? Then what?

show deleted posts

Habebe Member	Fri Aug 05 19:35:37 Yes yes, they don't poll they just average the polls taken, but what if the polls are shit? If you average largely shit polls, you pick shit winners. They have routinely undercounted Republicans since Trump. There os just something that the polls habe a hard time counting R support, my personal hunch is systemic partisanship, but who knows. So I was looking at gubernatorial polls for PA and the drastic differences in a few weeks, Shapiro(D) seems to have taken a strong lead ahead of Mastriano. Mastriano being the more "extreme" candidate the Democrats have been funding because they think he will be easier to beat. But when the race was tied they were likely voter polls, this new rash of polls had RV, which I disregard usually If they are a large shift. But then 2 other polls of LV also showed Shapiro like 8-10% up. So I clicked on the info. I have never heard of Beacon research, but that doesn't mean shit, so apparently 538 analyzed 3 previous polls, all three a perfect score for picking the winner, sounds ok, even if only 3..... Then they show the polls, 2 out of 3 were 10% off! One 9% something the other 11+ The 2nd poll they were only off by 3.5% Even with the fluke that's an average of 8% off in their polling. http://pro...lster-ratings/beacon-research/ The other poll blue something calls him a "Big lie" candidate on their page son I stopped reading there.
Habebe Member	Fri Aug 05 19:49:08 I also regularly watch the podcast where it's blatantly clear that Nate is good at remaining neutral and Gaylen Druke is as well, but in real life is pretty far left. The rest dont even keep appearances and especially are far liberal city left. Even the topics they pick anymore, are so left-brain ideas. Should we discuss the dislike of child sex shows?The economy?(very little) Nah, they have a slew of shows on Jan. 6 hearings and the "extreme" SCOTUS and how that may affect elections. which leads me to beleive its not intentional, they just can't help themselves.
murder Member	Fri Aug 05 20:03:31 "Should we discuss the dislike of child sex shows?" If you know of any you should call the police immediately.
Habebe Member	Fri Aug 05 21:10:43 What if its children police officers? Then what?
	show deleted posts

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