Utopia Talk / Politics / Investment corner #6---8/23/22

Habebe Member	Tue Aug 23 20:37:30 Rugian, Lol. Crisp trades, one of the stock alert profiles on Twitter I follow just bought 125k of $RAM as a small but safe bet. He also gambled on STBX with 18k. Its charting looks really good but you need to screen watch because it's so volatile. It moved from $4 up to $46 today, back to $15, I got in at $17, In may just sell in the Pre Market (PM) SINCE they tend to run up early and skip the bigger gamble to the hundreds, which is plausible. Part of me wants to seek ASAP since I'm up a few %. We will see wherenits at 7 am.
Habebe Member	Tue Aug 23 21:05:47 Now, ppl did make $ with BBBY, but that was too volatile for my blood. I don't like GME/AMC again, its just too hard to gauge for me. They dont even follow charts really well and have more erratic patterns than most and really steep rugpulls. More than even regular short squeezes.
Habebe Member	Wed Aug 24 09:56:55 STBX- I respected a stop loss, once again, I'm terrible at scalping. I didn't like the trend, it may come back, but for now, I'm out with only a small loss Moved over to TMBR @ .10, I've had success several times with TMBR moving from .10 up .15, it seems to stay in that range. RAM is basically the same, I'm up, IDK 1%. SMMT is sort of down today, thats a longer swing anyway, and I'm still up like 12-15%, I could sell, but I think its premature, its a slow moving safer bet, I'm liking those atm. Like PIK, its been up a little bit tody.
Habebe Member	Wed Aug 24 10:04:37 For the near future I Absolutley want nothing to do with IPOs. Everyone I had I lost on.You can make $ at them, I can't, lol. Ive watched 20 or so, I've dabbled in I think 6. They tend to drop day one, they curl up day one or spike, that first really large spike is it, the rest are bag holders. 2/3 don't spike and are flops.Personally I just dont have the extra to deploy such a strategy Im going back to stocks Im familiar with that are wat bloody, buying nothing green. Ibe actually reversed. and I'm up in webull and down in RH. RH being the day trades and WB lonher swings.
Habebe Member	Wed Aug 24 10:12:48 I actually put a limit sell order on TMBR , if it hits my price anytime in the next 90 days, its set to sell all. Set it and forget it, don't have to watch.
Habebe Member	Wed Aug 24 10:17:00 Nhill, Curiosity about what you were talking about the other day, with larger caps and such. TBH I'm way less familiar with larger caps, but they are more stable and I'd be down tonhear any advice you had.
Habebe Member	Wed Aug 24 10:21:31 TBLT is building legs again. Anything under $5 is a decent price for it IMHO. easy spikes $7-$11. It doesn't have the volume for that, yet, its up 10% with standard volume.When it was rollercoastering it had 20x that though.
Habebe Member	Wed Aug 24 10:25:30 Volume is picking up tho. Went from 2.3 mil all day to 3.8 since I posted that last post.lol
habebe Member	Thu Aug 25 15:03:19 I took a 12% gain on TMBR, and bought into ENDP at just under .29, basically at .29 (Technically it was .2889) Im thinking from.past performance, this could easily jump to .45 quickly. Also, potential buy out is still on the table. Suspicion is the johnson & Johnson is interested.
habebe Member	Thu Aug 25 15:04:24 Since I was having issues with losing gains I've decided to start taking smaller wins at 10-12%, a bird in the hand isnwoeth 2 in the bush and all.
nhill Member	Thu Aug 25 15:15:50 10-12% gains are big gains :) That's the average performance of the S&P500 annualized. One trade like that per year and you beat most hedge fund managers.
habebe Member	Thu Aug 25 15:23:13 Absolutley. I noticed I find it easy to scalp 10% almost daily by buying stocks Im familiar with at the lower end of their ranges, but they lately have 2/3 of the time have not been hitting the top end (small caps btw) So, im hoping I can just keep scalping 10% every other day or so and start adding into it with outside money.
nhill Member	Thu Aug 25 15:33:38 Good idea. Compounding with outside money on a regular basis is how you build real wealth.
Habebe Member	Fri Aug 26 11:06:20 So glad I didn't fuck with anymore IPOs. And they made money, JZ preordered @ $5, shot up to $126 instantly (odd?) Then into $186 followed by pure halts down to $47, small bounce to like $60. Pure manipulation & gambling.
Rugian Member	Fri Aug 26 15:21:02 Totally unrelated to whatever you all are talking about, but Jerome Powell royally fucked the markets today.
Habebe Member	Fri Aug 26 15:41:17 Rugian, Yes he did.
Habebe Member	Fri Aug 26 15:42:10 But hey, Monday may very well be ripping and roaring again, because the markets have the attention span of a *ooh shiny*
Rugian Member	Fri Aug 26 15:59:41 Indeed. Still, this year in general has been brutal on holdings. I think I'm going to make the switch to real estate. Property values go up, they go down, but the volatility is a lot less wild.
Rugian Member	Fri Aug 26 16:00:32 Also this was just the reaction to the "yes we're going to be raising rates next month" announcement. The day of the actual rate hike should be a fun one.
Habebe Member	Fri Aug 26 16:14:36 You know what's strange, the markets have actually done well generally the day of rate hikes, its shoet lived and usually reverses, but Ive been seeing clear several day spikes following the hikes. The reasoning is the bigger fear than a rate hike was uncontrolled inflation. As for real estate, I would be very careful, the next perceived bubble pop may well be RE.
Rugian Member	Sun Aug 28 18:57:01 Oh, I think most real estate is overdue for a significant correction in the short term. Its the long term potential that's attractive.
Habebe Member	Sun Aug 28 19:06:02 Oh yeah, grab some popcorn and wait for shopping days.
Rugian Member	Sun Aug 28 19:07:32 "Investors Ramp Up Bets Against Stock Market as Summer Rally Fizzles Net short positions against S&P 500 futures have recently grown, reaching levels not seen in two years" http://www...ly-fizzles-11661623961?mod=mhp
nhill Member	Sun Aug 28 20:27:24 Actual rate hike shouldn't be a huge deal according to the current probability of 80% chance of being a 0.75 bps raise. The Fed clarifying their narrative is now getting priced into the market. We'll see where it lands, but it's not looking good short-term. Market will go up after rate hike if it's a 0.75 bps or less. The reason this happens is it resolves uncertainty and markets like that. The real price movements come from macro perception of Federal Reserve policy. Many market participants felt they would taper raises now that inflation MoM and YoY peaked. Powell said nope, nothing changed. Hence the early taper is now pricing out of the market. It's all probabilities being resolved.
nhill Member	Sun Aug 28 20:28:52 Absent any other catalysts or narratives the market will go down right now as people deleverage their positions due to increased cost of borrowing.
Habebe Member	Sun Aug 28 21:25:48 Yeah, I seen 2 yr bonds were way up again. I'm thinking I might cut back on trading, maybe small dips here and there for a little while. I'm seeing people who make a living at this and specialize in bear markets saying they may just pause or cutback trading for a while and just buy a few long term buys here and there.
nhill Member	Sun Aug 28 22:01:07 Don't fight the momentum. Trying to trade long positions in a bear market is tough. Short positions on the other hand? Money in the bank.
Habebe Member	Mon Aug 29 01:00:13 Shorting is more difficult with smaller accounts. I have thought about zoning in on literally 1 or 2 stocks. Say TSLA, if you know it's patterns and legit just trade it, they have a single short ETF, so when Its gonma drop short, when it jumps back up buy, maybe even start to dabble in options. You never have to worry about volume, way less run around, as long as it moves somewhere you can make gains daily. If you could make 10% a week, that's pretty amazing. IDK, think I might paper trade it and see how I do.
nhill Member	Mon Aug 29 01:09:03 Ah, that's right. I remember Schwab required like $2000 or something maintained to be able to borrow shares. Crypto has fixed this with synthetic shares (crypto tokens that mirror stocks), but it isn't widely available yet. If you want to purely macro trade, shorting Bitcoin/Ethereum/alts would be an option. It mirrors other risk assets at the moment. Unfortunately the best platforms are banned in the USA, so you'd have to use a VPN and jump through a bunch of hoops. Can't think of a good way to do this for a small account either, as the fees to enter the market would be relatively high.
nhill Member	Mon Aug 29 09:22:45 Who's the market maker here???? Literally right after I said that there was massive short liquidations on AVAX? LMAO. Fully recovered now.
nhill Member	Mon Aug 29 09:23:09 We got a closet crypto whale watching this thread ;)
nhill Member	Mon Aug 29 09:23:56 Whoops wrong thread.
earthpig GTFO HOer	Mon Aug 29 14:25:01 @rugian - in my area, 2-4 unit specifically are crazy on sale. Sellers are getting pillaged. The real estate "metrics" that everyone watches are SFR/condo, so it's flying under the radar. No idea if that's true as well for Boston.
earthpig GTFO HOer	Mon Aug 29 14:25:53 And there's presently an influx underway of new preapproval requests from old real estate investor clients, that were typically good for at least 1 mortgage a year, that I haven't heard from since March 2020. So word is getting out.
earthpig GTFO HOer	Mon Aug 29 14:27:40 Recently closed: List price $1.6m Reduced $1.2m Buyer gets it in contract for $1.15m Independent appraisal (these come in exactly at contract price 19 times in 20, we upload the purchase contract after all) comes in at $1.5m $350k in free equity. "Anything is a good deal at the right price," well there you go.
Habebe Member	Wed Aug 31 02:58:57 I havn't updated much lately.Atleast not on here. MGAM- an old bag I was holding has risen from the dead, up 50%+, still under where I bought. SRNE is one I sluethed myself. So the CEO added another $45k in shares Aug. 25th, usually a good thing. Bam, overnight it got fastrackes bt the FDA for lidocaine products. 2 weeks ago it was at $2.83, now its at 1.94. Id like to ride that to atleast 2.50, but again, this is my solo project and so I could be way off, still a novice. I'll talk about LQDA later it's almost 4 AM! The casino promptly opens at 4.lol
Habebe Member	Wed Aug 31 03:00:54 Holy shit!, MGAM is on a run up over 100%! I went to bed early didn't notice the AH I guess.
Habebe Member	Wed Aug 31 03:09:01 Off the bat SRNE was up 14%. I made no money, if it dips later I'll jump in maybe on robinhood. My WB $ is locked up. Still, if this pans out, im.very happy, just means another solo pick I found has done well.
Habebe Member	Wed Aug 31 03:10:47 5th highest PM gainer. Woot woot. Nobody was talking about this, I mean, yeah somewhere maybe, but not in any circles I seen.
Habebe Member	Wed Aug 31 15:47:39 I had an idea, I may paper trade, but wanted to run past you guys for input. So 2 new Chinese IPOs skyrocketed today. ATXG is up over 8k%. The strategy would be basically to stretch out my risk. I have little way of telling which IPO will launch. People say different days they set out makes a difference or this or that etc. The only things Ice seen consistent patterns on are 1. Chinese IPOs. 2. Low floats. 3. Moved by very little volume, usually in the 10s to few 100k for stocks that start under $20. The idea was to just buy 1-3 shares in all low float Chinese IPOs and if after a week they don't rocket, sell out. Using the principle that 3 shares worth $600+ will more than cover the losses from the 20 shares that lost value. They aren't worthless, so I'd not deduct the entire price, just the loss in value.
nhill Member	Wed Aug 31 17:31:57 I am unfamiliar with IPO strategies, most of my investing journey is in ETFs and established companies with dividends...I can provide expertise there. But I'm learning from you about this side of things. :) It seems like a reasonable risk management strategy to buy a few lotto tickets and hope the winners pay more than the losers. That's a principle I use with microcaps in crypto, which I guess is sort of analogous to this, but not quite as I don't usually do that near launch. The management of trying to time the initial speculative fuel has been a weakness of mine so I don't even try. But you can get huge multiples if that timing is right. Be sure to map out targets and set alerts would be my advice. Make a plan before your emotions kick in and execute on it. Stop loss (doesn't need to be a hard stop, just have an idea of where your thesis would be invalidated), and multiple take profit targets. I would recommend buying at least 3 tranches, so if it's just one share, sell 0.33 at a time if it supports fractional shares,e.g.: $IPO Entry: $10 Take Profit 1: $20 Take Profit 2: $50 Take Profit 3: $100 Stop-Loss: $8 I like to let a little bit ride risk-free after taking profit. i.e. even after the final sell, I like to keep a a bit of equity. It's like a trinket or a souvenir. Maybe it'll be worth something someday, but, either way, you made a memory. :D
Habebe Member	Wed Aug 31 17:57:35 "am unfamiliar with IPO strategies, most of my investing journey is in ETFs and established companies with dividends" Ive steered clear for a little while because, I was doing bad with them, and they are purely a gamble. IMO your gambling on who is manipulating. I would IMO seperate IPO gambling from small cap swing trading that works more off of patterns/news, as there is something other than random chance and oppurtunity to easily spike (low float) "The management of trying to time the initial speculative fuel has been a weakness of mine so I don't even try. But you can get huge multiples if that timing is right." To be fair, these IMO reek of insider manipulation, so I dont see it as based on much publicly available knowledge. Now, yes like a crime there are notes Ive picked up on. Means is important. Well, low floats make it so low volume can still rocket it.FOMO follows but alot of them become bag holders when it eventually gets short attacked. I like the idea of pulling put bit by bit, not really possible with pre set limits, the spikes are jist too quick sometimes to catch manually. FYI- My Lunanis up over $3.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Tue Sep 06 18:36:13 I'm just gonna leave this here... http://www.tradingview.com/x/n3PiUZXf/
Habebe Member	Wed Sep 07 00:34:53 Nimatzo trip to the moon?
Habebe Member	Wed Sep 07 02:15:42 Hey, so anyone looking for a relatively safe bet, Id say petrol/energy is a good bet. Oil IIRC was trading atound $83 a barrel, but clearly over $100 is likely. I out some money on IMPP at .36, hoping to atleast double, it had a pattern of .33-1.00. And is due for a run. Plenty of more stable safer bets though too, XOM INDO ENSV CVX, less upside, but beyond safe bets, I don't see Chevron going outnof business anytime soon. And $83 is criminally cheap. Semi longer term food stocks I think are a safe bet. Just not food delivery, Nhill and I agree long and even medium term, they are probably not sustainable.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Wed Sep 07 03:11:09 Forget abiut the trende line, I mean a correction down to 2600.
Habebe Member	Thu Sep 08 17:21:08 Tommorow is looking better for YOSH a Ramen noodle chain restaurant IPOing tommorow. LPTV & WLDS have both been postponed until tommorow.Leaving YOSH & the parent company ETFHU (an acquisition comp) to be the debuted tommorow. LPTV is actually not an IPO, it's an uplist since its available on the OTC now. I'll throw $5 at YOSH as another lotto play. 12 million shares, 2.5 M available public. Even if it doesn't workout, Im down $3? I wasn't going to until the others got postponed. There is a fair amount of buzz from the pumpers. LPTV-I honestly know nothing about the company, something to do with media. I only heard of it in IPO chats and it stuck out as several traders I follow seemed interested. Crisp soent 25k @ 3.05, it was in the 2.90 range last I checked since the postponing news hit. Now I have the weekend To look into it.
Habebe Member	Thu Sep 08 17:22:25 Still waiting for petro to go up.
earthpig GTFO HOer	Tue Sep 13 16:49:01 *sips coffee in $UWMC share holder* The next 10% dividend payout day is less than a month away. :P
nhill Member	Tue Sep 13 16:55:13 10% annualized, so presumably this payout will be 2.5%, and also determined based on the current share price, which has declined about -9% the past month. Not quite the win there yet, but should be a decent play on long timeframes. Just be prepared to pay uncle sam for the fat divvy. That's been my biggest problem with my dividend heavy approach through stagflation.
Habebe Member	Tue Sep 13 17:02:35 I've been buying up HUSA and INDO today. They were both very red around 8%+ Somewhat longer swings, but Oil is really cheap at the moment, and that won't last long. Josh was a bust, I sold early, glad I did. TMBR is so under rated. Its slow and not exciting at all, but steady 15% every week if you want that. That's pretty good in my book.
Habebe Member	Tue Sep 13 17:03:17 LPTV recovered strong back over $3, uplists tommorow.
nhill Member	Tue Sep 13 17:04:04 Oil and natural gas are good plays going into the winter. Maybe a little too obvious, but I don't see how they don't increase in price this winter. 33% of my commodities in the stagflation portfolio I presented to UP in March 2021 is in natural gas. Should be a good winter for that component...unfortunately.
earthpig GTFO HOer	Tue Sep 13 17:09:44 @nhill - it's 10% at the price I paid, it's about 11% today. $0.1 per share per quarter. So $0.4/yr. So when it's trading at $4/share, the math is easy, $0.4 / $4 = 10%. It bounces between 10% and 11.5% (it appears some institutional types have auto-buy-orders in place when it starts paying north of 11%, providing a bottom to share price), but who cares, I'm happy with 10%. For various other reasons too, like upside potential in a "too big to fail" industry. None of the big defense contractors pay a similar dividend, that I am aware of.
earthpig GTFO HOer	Tue Sep 13 17:11:10 Dumbasses in our gov't spent >$200 on mortgage subsidies for every $1 that was spent on vaccine research, during the ~9 months both programs were concurrently underway. So it's not a defense contractor, but it's not NOT a defense contractor ("2008, never again!" amirite?), when it comes to bailouts and the like. Low mortgage rates cure COVID-19, apparently, according to congress in 2020.
nhill Member	Tue Sep 13 17:12:05 Michael Burry sold all his stocks to invest in mental health, drug addiction, and weapons IIRC :)
Habebe Member	Tue Sep 13 17:17:24 I made great gains on Monkeypox stocks, literally bouncing from one to another. As for dividend stocks, IIRC J&J pay pretty well. I'm still hoping JJ buy ENDPQ.
Habebe Member	Wed Sep 14 09:17:59 Today I am an oil barron, nd it is beautifal. Husa and Indo are both way up around 10%. Easy picks. I keep a watchlist of just petrol stocks, these are both medium sized reliable companies that were down over 8% on the day. I knew by weeks end they would turn a profit, strong chance today with atkeast a dead cat bounce, it oil also shot up $8 a barrel or So.
Habebe Member	Wed Sep 14 09:24:36 My slower plays are doing great. I've still had great luck with TMBR it was over .14, was in at .1075 ish. That stock just beats to its own drummer. Macro nwver seems to effect it much. Its slow, but atleast once a week for the last 3 months+ you have been able to play it for 10-20% easy gains with very little effort, some times more. Wide range of 10-15 cents, rulenof thumb anything under 11.5 cents buy, over 13.5 sell. It may take 2 days, or a week, but it pays and I have wholly under appreciated it, But Indont anymore.
Habebe Member	Wed Sep 14 10:50:20 My issue is that, I'm not well versed in trading oil. Ive really only been watching it for a few weeks. Should I sell the peaks and buy back in the dips? That's generally been good for me, but not always. Medical stocks have been great for me when the news is right, but unless its an ongoing thing like monkey pox, I just sell the news.
nhill Member	Wed Sep 14 10:57:40 Commodities are volatile, I would sell the peaks and buy the troughs if you are focusing. I recommend no more than 10% of your portfolio to be in commodities if they are investments (holding over a year for capital gains tax). But you can trade them.
Habebe Member	Thu Sep 22 04:02:38 So I havn't been posting as much because Ive shifted gears more of a longer term portfolio. I still dabble here and there for fun, but mostly aiming at seasonally assets. I'll break some down later but the main areas of interest are 1.Energy 2.Food 3.Fertilizer 4.EV These seem to be the safe haven industries at the moment while all else collapse. Need some sleep tho 4 now.
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