Utopia Talk / Politics / Crypto Curve

murder Member	Wed Sep 14 06:27:04 Bloomberg Crypto @crypto BREAKING: South Korea issues an arrest warrant for crypto firm founder Do Kwon as it probes alleged illegal activity behind collapsed stablecoin TerraUSD http://twitter.com/crypto/status/1569931628809437184
nhill Member	Wed Sep 14 10:14:00 'Bout time. There's a ton of shady shit linked to Do Kwon. Innocent until prove guilty, of course, but at the very least we know he's guilty of being an idiot and losing people a bunch of money through his protocol that was propping up 3 billion dollars with a 25 billion market cap and still marketed as "risk-free". That's best case. A lot of shady stuff around manipulation with Anchor paints a more nefarious picture. Glad we are at the point where courts can iron it out.
Habebe Member	Wed Sep 14 10:37:53 Best to weed out such people, by builds confidence in tge integrity of the rest.
nhill Member	Wed Sep 14 10:40:42 For sure. There's a ton of weeds in the crypto industry. :) Another reason to feel positive about its future.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Wed Sep 14 10:58:13 Singapore doesn't have an extradition treaty with SK. If he is innocent, he should go by his own will and exonerate himself.
murder Member	Thu Sep 15 01:43:54 Happy New Merge! :o) *confetti and balloon drop*
nhill Member	Thu Sep 15 06:57:12 You stayed up late for that one ;) Woohoo, people can shut up about crypto electricity usage now. :D
nhill Member	Thu Sep 15 07:03:10 Yet another hard problem casually solved by brilliant crypto devs. As people complain, we’ll build, until all complaints are neutralized. Then even murder will be approving transactions through Keplr. :p
nhill Member	Thu Sep 15 08:44:52 The merge event was an impressive technical feat and it's incredible, from an engineering standpoint, that it went off without a hitch. That said, I mentioned Keplr above on purpose. The Cosmos SDK/IBC has had Proof of Stake natively from the beginning. So... it's not like Ethereum is innovating, more like it is catching up. To be fair, it is much harder to go from PoW -> PoS than to start with PoS. Much, much, harder. Reminds me of upgrading databases in production systems during my normal career. Always a tough one to get right. Anyways, as murder was cringe enough to say "Happy New Merge", I'm sure someone was cringe enough to say "That's one small step for man, one giant leap for mankind" on a livestream while the merge happened. ;)
nhill Member	Thu Sep 15 12:32:47 ETH dumped right after ETHPoW came online. Exactly as I predicted over 4 months ago when people didn't even know ETHPoW was going to be a thing. Game. Set. Match. It's not even macro related. ETHBTC is down over 6%. I should charge for my analysis, because all the idiots who thought the merge event was bullish made a ton of money fooling people.
nhill Member	Thu Sep 15 12:41:16 Not that I'd want to make money off advice I give freely here. But apparently people listen more when you make them pay for your advice.
nhill Member	Thu Sep 15 12:44:47 One of the worst parts about being an honest and intelligent analyst that knowledge shares freely is we eat shit both ways. When we're right, nobody listened because the paid group leaders got more attention When we're wrong (these are markets, we're all wrong ~half the time), people accuse us of trying to "pump our bags" (i.e. murder's Karen like hissy fits). Whereas if I was a paid shill I could disclose my bias and point people to that. A good man is hard to find. This is why :P
nhill Member	Thu Sep 15 12:52:46 http://i.imgur.com/Z2yx7bp.png ^literally couldn't have predicted it more accurately if I had tried.
LazyCommunist Member	Thu Sep 15 15:40:26 It's still a scam http://mob...eed/status/1570339602346684416 According to our #Ethereum Post Merge Inflation dashboard, 46.15% of the #proofofstake nodes for storing data, processing transactions, and adding new #blockchain blocks can be attributed to just two addresses
nhill Member	Thu Sep 15 15:51:23 You're going to get left behind by the next phase of technology evolution, and that's okay. The world will move on without you :)
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Thu Sep 15 17:07:40 You know what isn't dumping? ATOM/Cosmos. It's spooky, Nhill said ETH will dump it dumps. He talks about how Cosmos already done it in the same post, and ATOM pumps. lol :)
nhill Member	Thu Sep 15 17:24:31 It's almost like I've read the code. :O
nhill Member	Thu Sep 15 17:26:02 Or maybe, just maybe...I moved the price a teensy bit. *innocent look*
nhill Member	Thu Sep 15 17:32:39 But, on the real (I don't actually move prices much), most likely people see the same stuff I see. Higher code quality, already PoS. The merge really put a spotlight on PoS, so why not go with the market leader. $ATOM. $OSMO and $EVMOS are good plays in the eco, too. Gives you some Ethereum killing exposure (as people use EVMOS to move over into Cosmos Eco), and exposure to the best DEX available for Cosmos. Maybe some $JUNO too, but I don't know enough about it yet. Between coding and researching it's impossible to keep up. That worked in my favor for LUNA I guess, as I never really got around to analyzing it...it takes me weeks to figure out how to run the code and analyze a new ecosystem. Individual derivative projects (like a DEX) can take a few days.
nhill Member	Thu Sep 15 17:38:24 We will be rewarded for our patience through the bear market. However long it lasts. Farm, chill, & reap the rewards down the road. Markets are a mechanism that transfer money from the impatient to the patient.
nhill Member	Thu Sep 15 17:41:53 EVMOS doesn't have my seal of approval on the code side. It's sloppy code and their validators are weak on the EVM side (very slow). But the team is scrappy and the narrative (EVM on Cosmos) is perfect. I'd be bullish out my ass if they had good quality code Still grateful for the airdrop, which has tripled in value already somehow. Something fishy about that tripling during a bear market to me. It's an airdrop that nobody dumped? Maybe it was just too hard for dumpers to access, but idk.
murder Member	Thu Sep 15 18:59:36 Ethereum (-10.46%) seems to have merged with an anchor. Was that by design?
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Thu Sep 15 19:04:46 Nhill Thank you for turning me Hedgeeye and macro in general. I see some big traders (atleast big on social media) I follow completely obsessed with their TAs. Yea I'm gonna go long ETH now, as if the energy crisis in Europe and recent CPI numbers don't exist. lol :)
nhill Member	Thu Sep 15 21:05:57 You bet, glad you see the importance of it. Validates a lot of what I spent the past 6 years researching... TA is good for timing entries, but macro should determine which side you enter on, even if it is the sidelines like us for now. :)
nhill Member	Thu Sep 15 21:07:07 murder I already explained what happened today in May of this year. :) It's a liquidity fracture. The merge was always a bearish event, I've been 100% consistent over the past 5 months. It is bullish on long time horizons, but the event itself was bearish.
nhill Member	Thu Sep 15 22:03:52 Speaking of macro, I'm in a macro kind mood. Pretty happy to see the merge play out exactly as I predicted. Made some scratch on that. :) On Macro: The biggest thing people miss about rate hikes is *why* it kills risk assets. Everyone knows it does, but the why is pretty important and very simple to understand: If the risk-free return goes up (as in the amount of interest you can make on your USD, which is what the interest rate is), the valuation for risky assets goes down. Night and day, plain and simple...black and white. The more interest you can make on your cash the more people want it in cash, ya dig? Of course, this part gets priced in a *bit*, but it depends on the probabilities. Like right now there's a 20% probability of a 100bps rate hike priced in after the hot inflation reading. This means I'm bullish for the next rate hike *event*. But leading into the event I'm bearish. The more complicated aspect is that leverage has to unwind to account for increased cost of borrowing. That's what makes it unpredictable.
murder Member	Sat Sep 17 09:27:14 Treasury recommends exploring creation of a digital dollar The Biden administration is moving one step closer to developing a central bank digital currency, known as the digital dollar WASHINGTON -- The Biden administration is moving one step closer to developing a central bank digital currency, known as the digital dollar, saying it would help reinforce the U.S. role as a leader in the world financial system. The White House said on Friday that after President Joe Biden issued an executive order in March calling on a variety of agencies to look at ways to regulate digital assets, the agencies came up with nine reports, covering cryptocurrency impacts on financial markets, the environment, innovation and other elements of the economic system. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said one Treasury recommendation is that the U.S. “advance policy and technical work on a potential central bank digital currency, or CBDC, so that the United States is prepared if CBDC is determined to be in the national interest.” “Right now, some aspects of our current payment system are too slow or too expensive,” Yellen said on a Thursday call with reporters laying out some of the findings of the reports. Central bank digital currencies differ from existing digital money available to the general public, such as the balance in a bank account, because they would be a direct liability of the Federal Reserve, not a commercial bank. According to the Atlantic Council nonpartisan think tank, 105 countries representing more than 95% of global gross domestic product already are exploring or have created a central bank digital currency. The council found that the U.S. and the U.K. are far behind in creating a digital dollar or its equivalent. Treasury, the Justice Department, the Consumer Finance Protection Bureau, the Securities and Exchange Commission and other agencies were tasked with contributing to reports that would address various concerns about the risks, development and usage of digital assets. Several reports will come out in the next weeks and months. Eswar Prasad, a trade professor at Cornell who studies the digitization of currencies, said Treasury's report “takes a positive view about how a digital dollar might play a useful role in increasing payment options for individuals and businesses” while acknowledging the risks of its development. He said the report sets the stage for the creation of agency regulations and legislation “that can improve the benefit-risk tradeoff associated with cryptocurrencies and related technologies.” The Blockchain Association, which lobbies lawmakers on Capitol Hill, said in a statement that the White House reports are “a missed opportunity to cement U.S. crypto leadership.” “These reports focus on risks — not opportunities,” the statement reads, "and omit substantive recommendations on how the United States can promote its burgeoning crypto industry, including job creation, improvements to the financial system, and expanded access for all Americans.” On Capitol Hill, lawmakers have submitted various pieces of legislation to regulate cryptocurrency and other digital assets. Sheila Warren, CEO of the Crypto Council for Innovation, said in an emailed statement that the report “seem to kick the can down the road” she said, “we don’t see clear recommendations.” The director of the National Economic Council, Brian Deese, told reporters that “we’ve seen in recent months substantial turmoil in cryptocurrency markets and these events really highlight how, without proper oversight, cryptocurrencies risk harming everyday Americans' financial stability and our national security.” “It is why this administration believes that now more than ever," he said, "prudent regulation of cryptocurrencies is needed.” He said on Friday that the Administration plans to "execute a comprehensive action plan with priority steps to mitigate key risks of cryptocurrencies — among others, money laundering and financing for terrorism.” http://abc...eation-digital-dollar-90006698
murder Member	Sat Sep 17 10:48:39 Not really related but ... ================================= Emily Green @emilytgreen Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele announces he has reinterpreted the country’s constitution and decided it allows him to run for a 2nd term… there will be no one to stop him considering he seized control of the Supreme Court (removing the judges and replacing them with allies). https://twitter.com/emilytgreen/status/1570607555503857664 ==================================== We have our first bitcon dictator! :o)
nhill Member	Sat Sep 17 18:25:35 Meh. It was a corrupt country long before Bitcoin was a thought.
nhill Member	Sat Sep 17 18:30:23 Man someone doesn't want me to get private offering price PTP :( The private offering was at $0.08. Just waiting to pull the trigger.
nhill Member	Sat Sep 17 18:31:43 It made a local bottom at $0.10...there might be institutions that are defending their cost basis and greedy. Not wanting us non-VCs to get in on the action. Well, macro will probably wipe them out eventually. I will get my $0.08 PTP :')
nhill Member	Sat Sep 17 18:39:36 I've been waiting since June for presale price PTP. Closest it has gotten was 0.097. Patience will win eventually.
nhill Member	Sun Sep 18 07:26:12 I mentioned $JUNO above, but if anyone is curious why I like $JUNO it's because their development environment (CosmWasm) is really cool. I don't know how to explain why, other than it uses golang, which I prefer to Solidity, and it has built-in safeguards that prevent easy smart contract hacks. It's purely a developer play. $JUNO isn't the only CosmWasm chain, and I don't know enough about the competitors. Basically I don't know shit other than I find the development environment (WebAssembly w/ golang) compelling. Good thesis, but not enough for me to act yet.
nhill Member	Mon Sep 26 15:11:01 http://ebuchman.github.io/posts/phases-of-cosmos/ Good read on the future of Cosmos & IBC.
Habebe Member	Tue Sep 27 03:45:26 I had an unexpected surprise. I checked my webull to find out I was given free LUNAUSD presumably for holding LUNC. I do, it jist popped up, I'll check my messages.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Tue Sep 27 04:21:10 Gonna read the Cosmo article later today. I love that chain and the IBC transfer, instant and none of the risk inherent to bridges. Lost count on how many bridges that have been hacked.
Habebe Member	Tue Sep 27 10:06:34 "Gonna read the Cosmo article later today." All I can think is that this is a line Ive heard on friends before....lol.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Wed Sep 28 14:37:55 Very good read, I like Cosmos even more. And I really like the guy who wrote it. http://twitter.com/buchmanster/status/1560363640267620357 The antithesis to Do Kwon.
LazyCommunist Member	Sun Oct 02 10:25:01 NFT is the future, the stupid future! http://www...ys-destroyed-10-million-frida/ The art world has been left aghast after a cryptocurrency entrepreneur claimed to have burned a $10 million Frida Kahlo drawing in order to “permanently transition it into the Metaverse”. In a bizarre stunt, the Mexican artist’s “Fantasmones Siniestros” [Sinister Ghosts] work was apparently placed in an oversized martini glass at a Miami mansion, and then set alight as a mariachi band played. Martin Mobarak, who personally incinerated the drawing, is selling 10,000 non-fungible tokens (NFTs), which are high-resolution digital versions of the 9in-by-6in drawing created by Kahlo in 1944. Each one was being sold for about $4,000 worth of Ethereum cryptocurrency. He said a portion of the money raised will go to charities for children’s medical care and museums. However, Mexico’s National Institute of Fine Arts was less than amused, and has opened an investigation into what it sees as potentially criminal vandalism. It said: “In Mexico, the deliberate destruction of an artistic monument constitutes a crime. “All the necessary information is currently being collected in order to establish with certainty that it was the destruction of an original work, or a reproduction.” A website selling the NFTs said: “Like a Phoenix rising from its ashes, Art is reborn into Eternity.” It described Mr Mobarak as an “art alchemist transforming physical art into digital gold.” A video of the burning, which took place in July, showed guests arriving on a red carpet for a party at a private home. It featured a mariachi band, scantily clad models by a swimming pool, and a fire dancer in a leotard. The drawing was then brought in by armed security. Mr Mobarak took it out of a frame, put it in the giant martini glass and set it alight as the crowd cheered. He told the audience: “I hope that everyone here can understand it, I hope everyone can see the positive side. “What we are going to do is change the lives of thousands of children.” He said he had a philanthropic vision to use NFTs to create “perpetual donations” to charities. Mr Mobarak later told Vice News: “People may see it as I destroyed it but I didn’t. This way I am bringing it to the world. I am letting everybody see it. I think it does more good for the world and makes a statement rather than just sitting in someone’s private collection.” In the art world, questions swirled about whether the picture was genuine, and whether it was worth $10 million. Mr Mobarak said he had bought it in 2015 from a private collector. Mary-Anne Martin, one of the world’s major Latin American art dealers, told Vice News she had sold it twice, the last time being in 2013. She had not heard of Mr Mobarak, adding: “The whole thing is creepy.” The website selling the NFTs carried a document from an art dealer in Mexico City certifying he believed the drawing was genuine. Expert seeks analysis One Kahlo expert said the ashes should be collected, chemically analysed, and compared to her diary. The drawing was originally created by Kahlo on a page of her diary. Kahlo, who was one of Mexico’s most famous artists, died in 1954. A year ago a self-portrait by the artist sold for $34.9 million at Sotheby’s. The apparent burning came as Damien Hirst is poised to set alight nearly 5,000 of his artworks. It will be the culmination of an experiment in which Hirst gave buyers the opportunity to choose an original or an NFT, with the one they rejected being destroyed. NFTs are digital assets bought and sold with cryptocurrency. Last year, a work by the digital artist Beeple sold at auction for $69.3 million. In 2021 sales of NFTs soared to $25 billion, but they have plummeted this year.
Habebe Member	Sun Oct 02 10:38:01 But sure, lazycommie isn't Murder....
murder Member	Sun Oct 02 14:50:10 Lazy Commie isn't murder.
nhill Member	Sun Oct 02 15:30:07 Both are ignorant crypto trolls. Tomato tomahto
LazyCommunist Member	Sat Oct 08 14:30:08 Scammers scam scammers http://web...ter-100-million-bridge-exploit Binance Smart Chain halts after $127 million bridge exploit Binance Smart Chain, the relatively popular blockchain that Binance is trying to rebrand as "BNB Chain", was halted when an attacker exploited "BSC Token Hub", the bridge between the old Binance Beacon Chain and BSC. The attacker successfully moved around $127 million of the stolen crypto assets off the chain before it was paused. The attacker's wallet contained 2 million BNB, valued at $586 million based on the price at the time of the hack, but as a result of the chain halt, they were not able to exfiltrate the entire amount. Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao ("CZ") tweeted that "An exploit on a cross-chain bridge, BSC Token Hub, resulted in extra BNB. We have asked all validators to temporarily suspend BSC." A BSC developer later confirmed that "we coordinated with validators to temporarily suspend BSC after having determined an exploit on a cross-chain bridge, BSC Token Hub- which resulted in extra BNB". The value of the $BNB token dropped from $293.10 to $280.40 after the news. The chain operators and CZ seemed to feel a little awkward about the ramifications of unilaterally deciding to halt a supposedly decentralized blockchain. CZ claimed he was asleep and that the chain had already been halted by the time he woke up. The BSC team published a blog post saying that "Decentralized chains are not designed to be stopped, but by contacting community validators one by one, we were able to stop the incident from spreading. It was not that easy as BNB Smart Chain has 26 active validators at present and 44 in total in different time zones. This delayed closure, but we were able to minimize the loss." They also promised to try to decentralize the project even further going forward.
McKobb Member	Sat Oct 08 14:49:50 http://web3isgoinggreat.com this chikk is my daily on crypto :P
nhill Member	Mon Oct 10 12:45:03 The fated time has arrived! $PTP at presale price. Going to start my TWAP today, and will continue it indefinitely as long as we are at $0.08 or below. I’m going to absorb the shit out of these dumps. Eventually institutions will follow as they must defend their cost basis to keep showing shiny numbers to their investors. Nothing is 100%, but an infinite TWAP until the bull resumes as long as it is under $0.08 is a generational opportunity. Glad we finally got it.
nhill Member	Mon Oct 10 12:46:34 McKobb You realize that site shows crypto in a positive light, I hope. Please tell me you aren’t that stupid.
McKobb Member	Mon Oct 10 19:52:17 don't under estimated my stupidity :P
nhill Member	Mon Oct 10 20:19:59 Well these are the hurdles we face in crypto. It outlines them very well. Naturally these are all fixable as the technology is only two years old, hence it’s a positive outline and set of outcomes. :) We need a consistent regulatory framework and “certifications” that solve them for the majority of cases. But, like e-mail, and the internet itself, there will always be vectors to scam the uninformed. (like every technology in existence)
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Wed Oct 12 05:48:37 I'm also scooping more PTP, the only thing I am buying. Been thinking about market bottom projection I made on S&P 500 crashing below pre-covid high, what does that mean for crypto? The corresponding zone is BTC@10k.
nhill Member	Wed Oct 12 08:15:40 8-12K seems reasonable, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see 3K touched if we see a huge macro event (e.g. tactical nuke) This is why I’m TWAPing and not buying anything above 0.08
Habebe Member	Wed Oct 12 09:09:29 Yeah. I way scaled back my trading. Basically I'm growing a really good savings account. Even the account chick I follow cut out risky plays for the time being. She says it's because she is working more, but it also coincides with an increasingly difficult market. The only smaller/medium caps were doing are energy stocks like Uzs LNG and related companies.She says food stocks as a genre, but I couldn't tell you any off the top of my head as a go-to. Ive also been following about 5 fertilizer companies, but just following. They've basically been acting like big caps moving a few dollars up and down in a tight range. My feet list is MOS CF IPI NTR She gave us an always list that I grew into my own Watchlist which not surprisingly are relatively safe big caps. RBLX CCL BLUE VERU MARA NVDIA AMD APPL TSLA Not to eat you Crypto thread up though.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Wed Oct 12 12:32:01 Nhill How does one TWAP?
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Thu Oct 13 07:16:53 OMX 30 Stockholm stock exchange is already resting on Pre covid market high. Have not checked but I assume a lot of non US markets are already on or below pre covid high. CPI numbers in 15 minutes.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Thu Oct 13 07:44:50 Bam, core inflation 6.6%.
nhill Member	Mon Oct 17 09:27:44 BOOM. We may be forming a bottom? Inflation was over estimates but crypto shrugged it off while TradFi continued to tank? IDK. Interesting thought, but my plan remains the same. Serious positioning around 16K BTC or blowing my load under 12K. Otherwise I'm ok missing a bottom and entering on significant reclaim and retest of long-term support. 28-32K is where I would begin to enter confidently, depending on market structure at the time. TWAP is a fancy dollar-cost average where you target the average price of an asset over time. Dopex and other platforms automate it (I think SushiSwap too, maybe?) but if you're doing it manually you can buy after significant price movements. There's tools on TradingView to see TWAP and VWAP based on points in time. You try to target that line as close as possible. Unlike regular DCA where you just buy every week or something like that. TWAP is the smoothest way to enter a low-liquidity position without getting burned. It also provides natural positive pressure on the asset price over time. VWAP is similar except it averages by volume instead of time. VWAP is better for technical analysis than the TWAP, because you can do a VWAP from extra significant events where you know many people repositioned or entered large positions (such as COVID bottom) and see what the average price is for the entire market at a given point in time. That will tell you when the market will defend its positions.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Mon Oct 17 09:59:14 "We may be forming a bottom?" Not what I was thinking, but I didn't really explain what I thought was the significance of the Euro markets touching pre-covid highs, but in this climate I would expect Euro markets to shit the bed before and worse than the US. I looked at some older draw downs like the IT bubble and financial crisis, -50% or more on the SPX. Well we have not drawn down 50%. Supply chains are blown up after covid and even more with the war. Agriculture alone will be REKT next year, unless there are massive reserve potential in the production of fertilizers nobody has been told about. Now what all of this mean for crypto with both US and EU regulations being insight, is another question. It could be a fork in the road, if crypto wasn't so unfinished. But if global agriculture shits the bed in 2023 as is projected, then the state of crypto does not matter, you can't eat tokens :P TL:DR Maybe my SPX projected crash to 2500 area was optimistic. Thanks for the explanation!
nhill Member	Mon Oct 17 11:35:35 Good points, I wouldn't put any money on it. I don't think a TradFi bottom is even close, for sure. Crypto tends to front run so I'm eyeing that possibility, but the macro is so bad (and the risk free rate of a 5% 1 year treasury note is too tempting) it's hard to believe any risk assets will rally. Perhaps a bottom will form for Bitcoin around 16-19K, but we crab around that bottom for a year or so. The theory is that we have ran out of both buyers and sellers. :) Volume seems to be steadily declining and price movements are pretty flat. Even large macro events that wipe -2.5% in a day on the $QQQ don't seem to do much either way for the Bitcoin. Alts I think will continue to bleed indefinitely, until the risk appetite returns. So there's not really any action for me to take here even if this loosely formed theory of a 16-19K bottom plays out. I'm not trying to make gains on the boomer coins. Looking forward to the future, and the intrinsic risk of that space makes it uninvestable for me at the moment. The one exception for me is $PTP because it's a stableswap with good bear market volume and the $vePTP generation makes TWAPing and staking into a position a good play. It's still very risky, like anything not tied to US Treasury notes :)
nhill Member	Mon Oct 17 11:41:46 Of course, ironically today $QQQ rallies over 3% and Bitcoin still does nothing. :D
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Mon Oct 17 12:17:40 "Even large macro events that wipe -2.5% in a day on the $QQQ don't seem to do much either way for the Bitcoin." Whales, exchanges and miners?
nhill Member	Mon Oct 17 13:33:59 Whales seem to be holding at this point. The sellers usually sell early in that cohort. I think something like 80% of circulating BTC supply hasn't moved in over a year (will have to cross-check that one on Glassnode but I don't have it pulled up rn). Exchanges will push the price into the pockets of liquidity so their market makers can take fees. Right now I think that's around 16K, in the future we will see. Miners are probably not selling as much right now, for a couple reasons: 1. Selling to cover expenses right now ends up in a net negative profit unless you're on renewables. 2. If you're on renewables you have fewer expenses to cover, so your upfront cost gives you more leeway to hold (perhaps wrapping the BTC for farming opportunities). I don't see many natural buyers or sellers at this point. But without any buyers, we simply crab into liquidity pockets, up and down, indefinitely. Unless Russia uses a tactical nuke. Then we wick to 3K or something crazy as a new level of panic gets priced into the market. Right now there are known levels of panic. :) Anyways, it may not be right. This is how I'm thinking through our current market situation. $QQQ and $SPY are fucked, they will continue to get sold off as rates go up because of slow liquidity flow.
nhill Member	Tue Oct 18 12:28:23 http://git...e/static/papers/whitepaper.pdf Bookmarking this to read when I get back to a PC
nhill Member	Tue Oct 18 16:17:43 The other thing to keep in mind is, as I shared months ago, 2018 had similar price action where the price stuck to the floor and crabbed into pockets of liquidity. The end result was another -50% drop. That seems to be what everyone is expecting this time around. I'm skeptical of anything that becomes consensus. When I first posted that fractal nobody was talking about it, so I thought it was likely. Now I'm less sure. The market has a way of giving consensus the middle finger. So perhaps we bottom out here, or we drop -80% instead of -50% ;)
nhill Member	Tue Oct 18 16:18:37 Either way, my confidence is that the consensus will be wrong. It seems to work out more often than not (see: my 6 month prior to the event predictions that the ETH merge event will be bearish)
nhill Member	Tue Oct 18 16:21:05 Part of this is simply natural. If the ETH merge event was going to be bullish, as was the vast consensus due to associations with BTC halving...then who is left to buy when the event happens? Nobody right? The event was bullish so everyone wanted in on the action prior to it. It really only gives people playing the event the option to sell... not that they would, but how could they buy if they already blew their load? Seems to be what happened. As predicted the Ethereum PoW fork also grabbed a bunch of potential liquidity that would have otherwise been on PoS.
nhill Member	Tue Oct 18 16:21:33 One of the most obvious consensus countertrades I've ever seen, due to those reasons.
nhill Member	Tue Oct 18 16:23:05 Ethereum is still -13% from the merge price over a month later. That "sell pressure reduction" is cute, but there's still no buyers.
nhill Member	Tue Oct 18 16:25:53 Btw the same thing can happen in reverse. If the consensus is a -50% drop, then people already sold/shorted to go with the obvious play. But if everyone sold, who's left to push price down other than the market makers? (they may very well push the price -50% just to capture that liquidity, in which case I would be wrong) That said, a bad macro event will cause a major selloff, there's no denying that under these conditions (WW3 Fear + Inflation)
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Wed Oct 19 16:33:09 I was going to write this yesterday, but my internet broke down, while I was typing... Hah! I have been thinking about this phenomena of the market contradicting consensus last couple of days. I have doubts this time (the consensus may be wrong, only in it's optimism), because I have no idea how the looming global food situation will effect things. It seems really bad and it can't be solved quickly without a peace deal, certainly not by printing money. It of course doesn't stop with mass death from starvation, countries will implode, migration waves will ensue, wars etc. You know one contributing factor to Syria combusting was years of drought and bad harvests driving tons of young men from the country sides into the cities in search of work. Have you looked into this anything? Tell me I'm wrong. I honestly don't think this looming catastrophe has been internalized, let alone priced in. Maybe I am running to far with the consequences. I don't know. Hah x 2! Aptos actually came into me crypto feed bubble. It seems quite interesting, especially the parallell transaction engine. The technical details are above my head, but it did catch my attention, that they are solving a problem. A lot of big name crypto VCs involved. Not overly impressed with the tokenomics (I guess we have to live with that when it is VC backed...) and the fact that they couldn't disclose how many tokens are actually in circulation!? Maybe they have now?
nhill Member	Wed Oct 19 18:09:27 I think you're right about the food supply, and, also, I think my hunch about -80% is the more likely result, as opposed to -50%. If it's gonna dump for something big it'll dump hard. Whether that's a war escalation, mass famine, or another pandemic, IDK. But I don't see any lights at the end of the tunnel here. Best case is that the tunnel doesn't collapse altogether...
nhill Member	Wed Oct 19 18:16:25 Aptos is meh to me. It's a fork of the Facebook blockchain that regulators shut down. It's backed by all the Solana investors tho, so I imagine it'll be a similar massive pump and dump on retail while attracting a loyal community (also called bagholders lol) due to its perceived advantages. I haven't gotten far into it. I'm curious about the programming language. Don't know anything about it yet. Tokenomics + VCs make me shy away from it a bit, but there's also the potential for a nice speculation if you let them pump your bags. But who knows how low it'll get before then. The way the locked tokens can be staked and the rewards dumped is sketch AF. You might as well say they are gradually unlocked instead of this "12-month lock" BS. Like many things in this nascent industry, it's more smoke and mirrors to provide the illusion of a more secure investment. I don't plan on owning any, regardless. I'm using this time to finally accumulate microcaps which I could never buy very much of due to low liquidity. e.g. $DEATH on Fantom is one I've been nibbling on slowly. It has a market cap (fully diluted) of $83,000. Good team of devs, know them professionally from alpha testing & providing feedback. Nothing sketchy about it. Just some devs wanting to make something cool. No marketing team, terrible communication, ton of engineering talent. My type of play. Can't buy very much yet, though. The market cap alone I could purchase rn, and that would shoot the price through the roof.
nhill Member	Tue Oct 25 13:25:53 Looks like $PTP is about to release their own stablecoin. Stablecoin + stableswap is a gud combo. They should be able to leverage it a lot *if* they can attract the liquidity. Remains to be seen if they will be able to make a big impact on stable pairs. It also depends on the mechanics, algorithmic or over-collateralized. Hopefully they don't make it like $LUNA/$UST and under collateralize and use $PTP token to soak the volatility. If they do that, I'd be bullish on the $PTP token price, but less bullish on the project...I'd prefer $PTP to not be more volatile considering how the long-term staking works. It would appeal to traders at the expense of investors. But getting ahead of myself. They may have some lending mechanics incoming that will keep it collateralized. Maybe a partnership with MoreMoney?
nhill Member	Tue Oct 25 14:54:08 Note: I meant "looks like" in the first sentence. I don't know for sure, but something big is coming down the pipe and speculations about a stablecoin are most prominent.
nhill Member	Tue Oct 25 15:30:16 http://www...22/08/Interest-Rates-Bible.pdf Good reading material @Habebe @Nim
nhill Member	Tue Oct 25 15:35:08 It's a bit dry, but worth understanding the bond market if only for the predictions intrinsic in the price movements. For example, right now we know the bond market is predicting rate hikes stop in June 2023, and rate cuts start again around December 2023. If you think that's overly optimistic, building a short position on rallies is smart. If you think it's pessimistic, building a long position on dumps is smart. You can use that as color for your overall understanding of geopolitical & macro forces to best represent your thoughts on the global future in your position sizing. (or if you think it's a tossup, simply sitting in cash is fine, which i s mostly my approach at the moment).
nhill Member	Fri Oct 28 13:57:54 Been thinking about the $PTP stablecoin and how it might work. Considering the single-sided LP provision of Platypus, they could make something pretty cool/creative. I think, at the very least, they will make a lending function. How I'd like to see it work would be taking your staked LP position and putting it up as collateral to mint a $PTP stablecoin. That way you can still farm rewards but also unlock that liquidity for other DeFi functions. This does, of course, increase the risk toward the user and protocol if a stable depegs, so perhaps only the main pool stables would allow a high collateral ratio, and then alt pools would have a lower LTV (thinking ~90% for main pool, ~%70 for alt pool). Then you could take your $PTP stable and farm it, presumably in the alt pool to start, thereby increasing the liquidity and TVL of Platypus, and, ultimately the fundamental value. Lot of potential, I'm cautiously bullish. I just hope they don't make it algorithmic like $LUNA where you burn your $PTP to mint the stablecoin...that could be a recipe for disaster. :)
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Mon Oct 31 07:05:20 Thanks for reading material, I will try to get through it :) Honestly about stable coins, I really rather there were a few multi chain ones, instead of every protocol creating their own. Maybe I am thinking wrong about this, but we need one that can be redeemed and is backed by assets and one algorithmic. That's it. How many flavors and nuances are there to a stable coin? Everything else I imagine as new functions to currency/money intrinsically means we are not longer talking about "stable coins", but currency.
nhill Member	Mon Oct 31 11:59:09 I agree with you on stablecoins. We really only need 3-4, but right now we probably have like 50+. The types of stables we need IMO: 1. Centralized stablecoin. We have USDT and USDC at the moment. Ideally this would be issued by the fed/govt so we don't have to worry about insolvency. 2. Over-collateralized decentralized stablecoin. $DAI fits the bill here. Although I think there's a case to be made of a truly decentralized stablecoin that doesn't use a centralized stablecoin as collateral. So that would be the ideal. 3. Algorithmic stablecoin. As much as I dislike them, I think there's something to be said about having one. It'd be like the risk-on stablecoin. Higher yields, higher risk. 4. This could also be one of the 1-3 stables, or maybe even a combo of all of them, but one thing DeFi doesn't have is an extensible value accrual stablecoin. Basically this would be needed to prevent a protocol like Platypus from inventing their own stablecoin in order to capture value accrual. I'm thinking a generic stablecoin (perhaps wrapping the others) that doesn't do much in isolation, but has hooks/contracts that allow protocols to mint/lend it. For example, the generic stable could be used for Abracadabra (they currently use $MIM). The main requirement is a stable protocols can mint *themselves*. The reason we have so many random stablecoins right now is there isn't any stables that allow free minting. Of course, there would need to be restrictions on how you mint (such as collateralizing, or maybe even submitting custom algorithmic code, but that could get dicey). ----- Unsure if the 4th would need to be separate from the other 3, perhaps one of the other 3 could add it as a use case...but it probably should be separate to avoid contagion. But having just these 3-4 stables would be amazing for DeFi. Imagine how deep the liquidity would be for stables. It'd benefit literally every crypto project under the sun by reducing slippage and simplifying development. As a dev, you'd know that supporting these stables is all you need to do to unlock the liquidity (cross-chain even) of all of crypto.
nhill Member	Mon Oct 31 11:59:47 tl;dr totally agree with your assessment that another stablecoin is not ideal. Unfortunately, no stablecoins currently support decentralized and extensible minting, so each protocol has to make their own.
nhill Member	Mon Oct 31 14:58:07 BTW I'm uber bearish on $GMX now. I exited my GLP position. I think the protocol is going to suffer a LUNA-style meltdown soon™ It is the same risk I called out a couple months ago. The no-slippage "feature" allows whales to take large positions and then manipulate price on CEX to drain the GLP. It also allows them to manipulate price to perform liquidations. The whole thing is a shitshow. AVAX was up 7% today at a time when ETH was -1%. That was not organic. That's a test. Remember, I said the same thing for LUNA, two weeks b4 it happened...seeing the same vibe here.
nhill Member	Fri Nov 04 17:19:25 $PTP is back above presale price. $0.083. It gave us 25 days to accumulate under presale presale and posted accumulation pattern like price action. Turn off my TWAP now, will wait for it to come back under presale price to keep stacking.
nhill Member	Fri Nov 04 17:22:36 http://i.imgur.com/4URQHIo.png
nhill Member	Fri Nov 04 17:25:44 I said this last year, but my opinion on wycoff accumulation and distribution patterns is they aren't very useful for trading. It's good for analyzing history, but doesn't make many useful predictions in real-time. It's a timeframe thing-- you can have what looks like accumulation and distribution both on two different timeframes. Until the patterns play out, you don't have a great way to identify them, too, because you have to wait until the full structure is completed.
nhill Member	Fri Nov 04 17:27:47 http://i.imgur.com/I5pZJGx.png 4HR timeframe looks best IMO.
nhill Member	Fri Nov 04 17:31:02 The thing is, though, is that all we know is that likely people accumulated under presale price (I certainly did). That doesn't tell you where it's going to go next. It may rally or it may re-enter an accumulation pattern all throughout the bear market, along with some major deviations to the downside. People should be fairly comfy buying <$0.08 because you don't have to worry about sell pressure from funds that refuse to book losses. It's likely that they are defending their cost basis with at least a small amount of capital in a similar manner to my TWAP.
nhill Member	Sat Nov 05 10:38:48 $0.087 now :) 8.75% above presale price. I imagine we'll be back below someday, but glad I took those 25 days to fill my bags under presale. Avg cost basis is $0.075 at the moment, a 5 figure position (relatively small because I'm still farming stables).
nhill Member	Sat Nov 05 10:41:35 $MAGIC (on arbitrum) also caught a bid here, up 64%. Nice little bear market rally.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Sat Nov 05 11:21:56 I have a 3 figure bag of PTP :,) I also bought some during the dip, it formed such a nice bottom formation, you almost forgott where we are in the macro cycle. Caught up on your posts and you are right about the stable coins, there are more ways to slice it that I gave voice to. For some reason I imagine that the algorithmic will be the decentralized one and the redeemable will be a centralized one, but you are right these are different things. A shame to hear about GMX fucking up, it was on my potential list.
nhill Member	Sat Nov 05 11:29:10 We're still early in the bear market, being conservative is prudent. I don't mind accumulating indefinitely under $0.08 because I can stake it to generate $vePTP. By my calculations, each $vePTP is worth about $0.05 of yield per year in a bull run, and that's just assuming price recovery to parity with Curve, and not accounting for the additional bribes that would flow in that scenario. We play the long game, though, may be 2024 until it pays out. Hard to say...I was hoping we'd have a macro bottom formation this year and then crab for a while. My July bottom prediction is still in tact, but I have little faith in it now. Perhaps to my detriment, but I'd rather preserve capital than risk it to make more right now.
nhill Member	Sat Nov 05 11:31:49 Have around 9 million $vePTP (and growing) from starting staking right after protocol launch and averaging into a bag. May be good for around half a million a year worth of bribes next bull run if my calculations are correct. Good retirement income? :)
nhill Member	Sat Nov 05 11:35:18 Right now it generates $5400 / year in income on a 5 figure position. Not bad for the bear market, but also doesn't move the needle at my current scale. Patiently accumulating...
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Sat Nov 05 15:40:14 2024 seems reasonable I think, this is going to be a long winter, the fertilizer problems will come slow and then all at once. It has a wiki page, it is officially a thing. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_food_crises
LazyCommunist Member	Sun Nov 06 02:42:07 The crypto scammers use names like "web3" to confuse naive people: http://www...e-wants-us-to-ignore-web3.html Web inventor Tim Berners-Lee wants us to ‘ignore’ Web3: ‘Web3 is not the web at all’ Published Fri, Nov 4 Tim Berners-Lee, the computer scientist credited with inventing the World Wide Web, said he doesn’t view blockchain as a viable solution for building the next iteration of the internet. “In fact, Web3 is not the web at all,” he told an audience at the Web Summit tech conference in Lisbon. “Blockchain protocols may be good for some things but they’re not good for Solid,” a web decentralization project led by Berners-Lee, he said. “They’re too slow too expensive and too public. Personal data stores have to be fast, cheap and private.”
McKobb Member	Tue Nov 08 06:14:33 https://news.bitcoin.com/us-announces-historic-3-36-billion-cryptocurrency-seizure-as-silk-road-bitcoin-thief-pleads-guilty/ US Announces 'Historic $3.36 Billion Cryptocurrency Seizure' as Silk Road Bitcoin Thief Pleads Guilty this nigga finally got busted
murder Member	Tue Nov 08 15:25:55 I feel a massive cryptoquake coming ... ===================================== Crypto World Is Rocked as World’s Largest Exchange Rescues Rival Binance, the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange, said it had reached a deal to buy FTX, amid fears the industry could enter another meltdown. http://www...y/binance-ftx-deal-crypto.html
LazyCommunist Member	Wed Nov 09 05:56:07 That's no surprise. In April Sam Bankman-Fried, founder and chief executive officer of FTX, admitted that huge parts of crypto are simply Ponzi: http://www...g-and-left-matt-levine-stunned Sam Bankman-Fried Described Yield Farming and Left Matt Levine Stunned
TheChildren Member	Wed Nov 09 15:35:09 arise ye crownloess foolz, vaporwarez will vaporaize all ur moniez
McKobb Member	Wed Nov 09 16:21:05 hahaha 15k
McKobb Member	Wed Nov 09 16:21:58 binance save falls through
McKobb Member	Wed Nov 09 16:27:07 http://tec...-backs-out-of-deal-to-buy-ftx/
murder Member	Wed Nov 09 16:47:05 That's OK, Binance is under federal investigation for money-laundering and helping Iran evade US sanctions anyway. http://www...-8-billion-despite-2022-11-04/
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