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Utopia Talk / Politics / Fiona/Canada
Sam Adams
Member
Tue Sep 20 10:48:08
US and european weather models in good agreement on a 930mb hurricane barreling into canada saturday morning. If true this would be similar to the great long island express storm in 1938 and would be by far the strongest storm in canadas known history. 15-20 feet of storm surge possibly.
nhill
Member
Tue Sep 20 11:01:45
Bermuda might be getting steamrolled on the way, should the track veer slightly east.

About 1.5M people in Nova Scotia and Newfoundland may experience history here. The winds don't look too bad in the NOAA model by the time it makes landfall, but that storm surge is nasty.
nhill
Member
Tue Sep 20 11:06:06
Hopefully the pressure drops as it travels northward.
murder
Member
Tue Sep 20 11:09:06

That area has what < 2 million inhabitants? They should be able to evacuate anyone is any real danger.

Sam Adams
Member
Tue Sep 20 11:12:53
This kindof storm is surge dominant at this stage.
murder
Member
Tue Sep 20 11:15:58

"Hopefully the pressure drops as it travels northward."

Hopefully not. ;o)

Sam Adams
Member
Tue Sep 20 11:16:26
Most of those people are in halifax too, which is currently outside the primary target zone. The storm looks like its going to kill the southern coast of newfoundland, where like 3 people live.
murder
Member
Tue Sep 20 11:19:10

So it'll primarily be a TV event. Hopefully everyone gets their reporters out there to cover the show.

Sam Adams
Member
Tue Sep 20 12:05:08
Lol latest GFS is 926mb just offshore the tip of nova scotia. Nuts. Even after adjusting for its lower latitude, the great long island express was about 10mb WEAKER than this forecast.

nhill
Member
Tue Sep 20 15:04:14
GFS is nice. We were all-in on RAP last I was working on weather, admittedly a few years back. But they didn't have MSP yet, and I'm unable to find one now, so GFS it is.
nhill
Member
Tue Sep 20 15:07:41
That said, I probably just can't find it. Govt documentation is a nightmare.

Also integrating and supporting GFS was always annoying, govt systems go down and they very rarely have adequate support processes. At ForeFlight, when I ran the weather team, we made it a habit to save emails of anyone that responded to us, in the hopes of being able to bug them later :p
nhill
Member
Tue Sep 20 15:10:06
I don't know crap about weather, to be clear...had a meteorologist as our product analyst that would constantly correct me when I said something dumb.

So I'm trying my best here :)
Paramount
Member
Tue Sep 20 16:40:40
So you have like basic weather knowledge? You know when the sun is shining, when it is raining, and when the wind is blowing? Most people don't need to know more than that.
Habebe
Member
Tue Sep 20 16:53:20
Sam has long had a strong fascination with weather. IIRC he is a pilot, so that makes sense.
nhill
Member
Tue Sep 20 17:19:16
Weather modeling, Paramount. I’m a pilot and write apps for aviation & weather.
Sam Adams
Member
Tue Sep 20 18:36:58
Foreflight imports satellite and radar too right?
nhill
Member
Tue Sep 20 18:48:56
Yes, through DTN
Sam Adams
Member
Wed Sep 21 11:21:01
Nice. Did you do the coding on that? Satellite data can get... fun.


Anyway latest GFS has a 928mb storm just offshore... Halifax. Rofl. The city is on the storms weak left side... for now. If this thing goes another 100 miles west it will be the worst weather disaster in canada in 150 years... maybe even all the way back to the great cane at the start of the revolution.
nhill
Member
Wed Sep 21 14:13:10
Us getting data from DTN is public knowledge, but how it comes from them isn't so I can't share exact details...but suffice to say that we've had tons of issues with satellite data, and, I agree, it is "fun".

Radar, too, is a pain, especially internationally. We're lucky, in the USA, to have decent weather systems, on a technical level, relative to Europe, has been my experience. They are trying with OPERA, but it ain't there yet.
Sam Adams
Member
Wed Sep 21 17:09:25
Ya euro weather is way behind US weather tech, with the exception of global modelling.

Weather tends to be much more benign in western europes population centers... if they got hurricanes and plains supercells, they probably would have invested in better radar and satellite.
murder
Member
Wed Sep 21 20:18:02

Currently Fiona is expected to remain a hurricane all the way into the Gulf of St Lawrence. That should result in a healthy cluster.

Habebe
Member
Wed Sep 21 20:23:09
Knock on wood SC hasn't had many bad hurricanes in years. I remember one since Ive been here.
murder
Member
Fri Sep 23 21:02:45

What is the storm surge looking like?

Sam Adams
Member
Sat Sep 24 12:20:56
The storm behaved as expected and landfell as a 931mb surge monster, the lowest non-tornadic pressure ever recorded in canada.

There are the standard videos of homes being swept into the sea and smashed by waves and a few morons were reportadly killed. Surge likely peaked at 20 feet but very few people live in the prime surge zone so overall damage is minimal. Halifax was missed.
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