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Utopia Talk / Politics / Ukraine/Russia: pointless debate thread
murder
Member
Wed Sep 21 07:08:28
Russia is barking louder while ceding territory.

Seb
Member
Wed Sep 21 08:11:08
That's my take.

It's framing a failure as an escalation.

The referendums are not new - they had trailed them long ago but essentially abandoned them under pressure due to lack of a condition to make them remotely plausible. Now he knows he does not have any real international backing it becomes a mere internal formality that he knows will not shape international opinion.

the nuclear threats are not new and lack credibility as nobody considers the territories claimed to be Russian no matter how Russia makes that claim nor will they pay the slightest notice of it.

The conscription just amounts to a reversal to prior assurances conscription will not be used. Formal acknowledgement this is not to be a short victorious war, and people will need to be forced to fight.

It will not achieve much as the primary issues hampering Russia remain:
* equipment
* lack of unified command
* ineffective leadership
* poor skills
* poor discipline

So we shall see what happens next.
LazyCommunist
Member
Wed Sep 21 08:53:52
What is this shit? This is madness!

http://www...-pledge-to-ukraine-11647007200

In its 2013 guarantees, Beijing praised Ukraine’s 1994 agreement to give up thousands of nuclear weapons from its time as a Soviet republic in exchange for security assurances from the U.S., U.K. and Russia. “China pledges unconditionally not to use or threaten to use nuclear weapons against nonnuclear Ukraine, and under the conditions of Ukraine suffering an invasion using nuclear weapons or suffering the threat of such kind of invasion, to provide Ukraine with corresponding security guarantees,” the statement said.
Pillz
Member
Wed Sep 21 12:10:10
Lol
Sam Adams
Member
Wed Sep 21 12:42:59
Pillz did you get conscripted yet?
jergul
large member
Wed Sep 21 14:07:24
The primary issue hindering Russa is being hideously outnumbered.

jergul
large member
Wed Sep 21 14:29:43
We will of course see how it plays out, but on paper, this was Russia's very best move.

Enough forces to rotate units in and out of the frontline at Brigade or Division size.

Units able to rotate fighting and coherently according to their TO&E improve equipment, combined ops, leadership, skills, and discipline.

Integrating Donbas+ forces into the russian military (as per presidential decree) resolves the unified command issue.

With that said, I do not see this as doing much more than stabilizing the frontline over the medium term (and short term. Ukraine still has a few weeks before this plays out).

But reactivated brigades and division will be ready once the spring weather improves. Part of the strength of the partial mobilization is it gives cadre for the 160k october-22 conscripts to join in 4 months time.
Pillz
Member
Wed Sep 21 14:31:59
This becomes less of an issue now that Russia has begun to dismantle Ukrainian transport infrastructure

The consequences of a strike on freight trains at the railway station in Kharkov.

Partially destroyed trains with fuel in the Kholodnogorsk region, possibly with other military cargo, usually Ukrainians do not show them."
http://t.me/intelslava/37629?single
Pillz
Member
Wed Sep 21 14:38:48
Eastern and South Ukraine will be effectively cut off from supplies as strikes continue to dismantle rail yards and bridges.

With 50% of their energy infrastructure gone already, it should be a matter of time before the trains stop working entirely or reliably.

And w/ no electricity, flooding by dams displacing thousands, etc, the country is going to face a humanitarian crisis by December.

Russia should probably blow the bridges over the Dnieper, it would allow time to secure the 4 oblasts they have already and reinitiate and probably take Kharkov.
jergul
large member
Wed Sep 21 14:53:52
In a typical brigade, 2 of 3 battalions partially rely on conscripts, with the 3rd being fully manned by contract soldiers.

So until now, only 1 of three battalions have been deloyable, but the other two still lock down a lot of contract soldiers busy teaching the conscripts stuff.

Right now, we are at a point in the cycle where after 4 months recruit and specialist schools, cohorts of conscripts have been with their units for 2 and 8 months respectively.

So all 3 battalions are now deployment ready and can be sent into combat as a full brigade with all the bells and whistles attached (supporting elements inherent to the brigade are now also full strength).

The downside is that in isolation, the next batch of conscripts have nowhere to go in 4 months time. The units they would usually join are already at full strength.

The solution is reactivating brigades and divisions, mobilizing reservists to form the cadre in those activated units, and have the regular conscripts join them in 4 months when they are done with recruit and spesialist schools. It also gives the mobilized reservists 4 months to train before the conscripts arrive and two month to train with them thereafter before the new unit is deployment ready.

This can go on for about two years before Russia will have to start releasing conscripts and contract soldiers, so force size equilibrium will happen around then.

There is obviously not enough room for these kind of forces along the contact line and Russia would want to rotate forces anyway, so expect posturing in Belorus and along the entire Nato line.

The Nato line is important because it removes the need for nukes as a deterrent and locks down Nato hardware. Nato countries will not be able to deplete their own arsenals to help out Ukraine, while US stockpiles and production will suddenly have a huge number of competing countries clamouring for immediate backfills and resupplies.
jergul
large member
Wed Sep 21 14:57:04
Pillz
Infrastructure stuff puts Ukr forces along the line of contact under stress and will degrade their capabilities over time.

Those forces will not be in great shape come spring time.

But I don't see this as a quick affair. It will take 6 months for Russian mobilization to really take hold. And what is Russia's rush really once the frontline is stabilized and posturing along the Nato line begins?
Seb
Member
Wed Sep 21 15:16:47
jergul:

"Integrating Donbas+ forces into the russian military (as per presidential decree) resolves the unified command issue."

Not really, those guys were already taking orders from the Army - the issue is more that you have Rossgardia, Kadayov etc. all running around doing their own thing too.

Plus saying something is so is not the same as it being so - cultural change etc.

I still think your are focusing too much on the "on paper" stuff.

And if Russia can't adequately equip it's forces now, what to do with these additional conscripts that would have been rotating through the same equipment? And giving equipment to a bunch of people that have been drafted might end up much the way that parts of Kharkiv front did - panicky running for their lives and dropping equipment.

Pillz
Member
Wed Sep 21 15:28:23
Where is your evidence that Russia can't equipe its forces Seb? The influx of New drones? The ever increasing torrent of ballistic and cruise missiles raining down upon Ukraine? The fact Russia continues to out shell Ukraine 10:1? Has Russia begun fielding museum pieces on the front line?

And rossgardia is not doing whatever they want... They are the primary defense units along part of the front. That's their role. So far we've seen them do a good job.

Kadyrov also, what is he doing? Chechens are active in Donbas and are successfully wrecking the Bakhmut defensive line, as is the #1 goal at the moment.
murder
Member
Wed Sep 21 15:29:59

"This can go on for about two years before Russia will have to start releasing conscripts and contract soldiers, so force size equilibrium will happen around then."

This won't last 2 years. Putin has already taken losses by pushing Finland and Sweden to join NATO. He's going to lose Ukraine ... all of it ... and if this goes on much longer he's going to lose Belarus too.

jergul
large member
Wed Sep 21 15:44:10
Seb
Rosgvardia forces are a stopgap. A force surge will allow them to return to their actual role. Kadyrov forces are part of the Russian armed forces and are not running around doing their own thing. They have their assigned sector and assigned objectives like everyone else.

Cultural change? Russia is setting the stage for fighting in a way aligned with its military culture. Its military is designed for mobilization use.

Russia can most definitely adequately equip its forces. Not with state of the art hardware in every reactivated unit, but Russian military culture never assumed state of the art equipment for its mobilized force.

You are missing the part where conscripts have been equipped in their units for 2 and 8 months. The activated reserves have 6 months to sort out the hardware for their newly activated units.

You mean the ordered retreat from Kharkiv that netted Ukraine very few killed and captured, and not much in the way of captured hardware either?

Pillz
Rosgvardia should not be at the frontline. That is not its role. A stopgap measure that can be phased out.

"The National Guard has the stated mission of securing Russia's borders, taking charge of gun control, combating terrorism and organized crime, protecting public order and guarding important state facilities"
jergul
large member
Wed Sep 21 15:49:35
Murder
So, yah, how is that joining Nato going for Finland and Sweden?

I think it will last two years and longer.

It will not take long now before there are troop surges along Nato's frontier with Russia. We can ignore it by thinking they are burned out forces needing to reconstitute themselves for a while, but actually, they are just the resting portion of Russia's force rotation scheme.

It will impact on Nato's ability to supply Ukraine as the emphasis slowly shifts to backfilling Nato arsenals and rebuilding combat readiness.
Pillz
Member
Wed Sep 21 15:57:36
@jergul it is definitely going to take time for mobilization to be in full effect, but within the next few weeks we should see the impact of the change from SMO to AVO.

I also don't think Russia wants this to last 2 years, but it will ultimately depend on how far they want to take this. Odessa and Nikolaev are going to be very difficult, and would require Ukraine maintain the ability to freely cross the Dnieper just so that forces are not concentrated in the south.

US and NATO aid is really the factor that will determine how long this goes on though, as Ukrainian defense is entirely dependent upon it. And now it will have to increase 2 or 3 fold.
Pillz
Member
Wed Sep 21 16:00:53
"Pillz
Rosgvardia should not be at the frontline. That is not its role. A stopgap measure that can be phased out."

Of course they shouldn't. But that's where they were assigned, and so that's the role in the SMO (or was). The point is that they are not just traipsing around the front line doing whatever they please
jergul
large member
Wed Sep 21 16:07:22
Pillz
Aid will decrease, not increase, as Nato countries realize they actually have to be combat ready as Russian troop surges to the Nato frontier become noticable.

Reenforcing individual battalions with full brigade strength units can begin as soon as this is constitutionally allowable. That stage can be set as early as this week.

The problem becomes more that there is actually not enough room along the frontline for everything. A cap of 250-300k still seems reasonable to assume.

So Russia will be rotating units out of the frontlines too. Perhaps as many as half the elements from identified brigades and divisions will slowly be pulled out as full strength brigades and division take over their sectors (essentially each battalion sector will be widened significantly as brigade size re-enforcements arrive).

The withdrawing forces (doubtlessly to be spinned as yay Ukr victory) will join their parent units for deployment North of Kharkiv, in Belorus, and along the Nato frontier. I am not sure what will happen with the Southern Military District forces. It will probably just take over more of the frontline sectors.
jergul
large member
Wed Sep 21 16:08:40
Seb's point is valid that Rossgvardia is in a different command structure. It does give coordination problems.

It will be better when they are doing traffic control in the rear areas :).
Pillz
Member
Wed Sep 21 16:09:08
Large scale rocket attack on Kramatorsk railway

http://t.me/asbmil/5545?single

Russia has not generally been targeting rail yards like this. Least not two in a single day.

I guess for now they intend to let them use the Dnieper, and will just hamper the ability to travel to the front.
earthpig
GTFO HOer
Wed Sep 21 16:11:45
Airlines in Russia ordered not to sell international tickets to adult men under 65?
Sam Adams
Member
Wed Sep 21 16:11:48
"Where is your evidence that Russia can't equipe its forces Seb?"

Lol pillz is an actual retard. Ignore the t62s, the begging from iran and nk, the 50 year old rations. Ignore the chinese knockoffs that dont work, the decrease in missile strikes, the soldiers thieving everything in sight, the air force that doesnt fly.

Everything is fine and every russian soldier is properly supplied.
Sam Adams
Member
Wed Sep 21 16:14:50
"Aid will decrease, not increase, as Nato countries realize they actually have to be combat ready as Russian troop surges"


Lol. The minds of russians. Utterly divorced from reality.

"Russia will win in a week".

"Russia will win in a month"

"Russia will win next year"

Lulz
jergul
large member
Wed Sep 21 16:15:35
The problem with isolating the frontline earlier is that gives Ukrainian armed forces nothing better to do than build up offensive capability in say the South. Better that it be allowed to trickle in re-enforcements to degrade in salients within Russian arty range.

The logic changes ones Ukr force buildups are no longer relevant as Ukr soon has to secure Kiev and Kharkiv from pushes from the North. Isolating and degrading forces in place is better as it allows for cost efficient incremental gains.
jergul
large member
Wed Sep 21 16:16:44
Sammy
I don't think Russia will ever win, nor that winning is even a goal.

The plan is to bleed the West dry and while Russia rotates East.
Pillz
Member
Wed Sep 21 16:18:39
Re: aid

That's sort of my point. Aid needs to increase, by a lot, for Ukraine to continue to put up a fight. It won't. But when will it begin to diminish, and by how much? What level of aid is enough to defend against Russian offensives, versus how much is needed to simply resist and drag this out?

http://www...nning-out-weapons-send-ukraine


https://thehill.com/policy/defense/3597492-heres-every-weapon-us-has-supplied-to-ukraine-with-13-billion/

7 months and 600k-900k artillery shells sent by the US. Stockpiles are low, production increase hasn't even started yet.

Winter brings some respite presumably, but by spring the AVO will be in fu swing. What sort of support does Ukraine receive between then and now?
Pillz
Member
Wed Sep 21 16:20:06
"Lol pillz is an actual retard. Ignore the t62s, the begging from iran and nk, the 50 year old rations. Ignore the chinese knockoffs that dont work, the decrease in missile strikes, the soldiers thieving everything in sight, the air force that doesnt fly."

I hope NAFO is paying you for your posts Sam!
Sam Adams
Member
Wed Sep 21 16:20:53
"plan is to bleed the West dry and while Russia rotates East."

The plan was to landgrab ukraine and the plan failed. Now theres nothing left but russian crying.
Pillz
Member
Wed Sep 21 16:27:29
@jergul

I had considered the issue of force build up in the south, but assuming Russia does want this to go on indefinitely, that doesn't seem like a problem. Ukrainian offensives in the south are never going to succeed because of the topography. Unfortunately the situation is not more favorable for Russia.

However, if Russia does intend to take Odessa and Nikolaev, they will want to do whatever they can do stop such a buildup. Itd suggest they open another front in the North, actually. Reinitiate the offensive on Kharkov. They may have the manpower to fight on 3 front but they don't have the equipment and that will only continue to get worse. Russia was previously lacking in manpower.

Ultimately that's the most sound course of action, is to degrade infrastructure and open up a front in the north while Kiev defends itself out of necessity. Something is going to give eventually
jergul
large member
Wed Sep 21 16:27:42
Sammy
Ukraine is getting t-55s from slovenia. Way worse by all measures including lack of compatibility with more modern soviet stuff :D.

Russia has landgrabbed Ukraine. It may have wanted a few more provinces to hold sham referenda in, but holding a hostile East was never on the table.

Ideally, it would have installed a regime that would have federalized Ukraine to the point of it just being a collection of self-ruling provinces. But that will never happen now, so dismemberment and perpetual conflict instead.
jergul
large member
Wed Sep 21 16:30:15
Terrain North and NE of Kiev heavily favours the defender. Locking down Ukr forces can be achieved simply by deploying forces in being to the N and NE.

Degrading infrastructure is a must. You cannot bleed the West dry without it.
Seb
Member
Wed Sep 21 16:32:02
jergul:


"Cultural change?"

Are Donbass forces going to enthusiastically fight a rear guard action to protect Russian regular forces just because a Russian placeman in Donbass and the Duma said Donbass is Russia now and they are part of the Russian army? Vice versa?

Big gap between what is said on paper, and whether these groups all think of themselves as "us" rather than "us" vs "them".
Seb
Member
Wed Sep 21 16:33:24
jergul:

"You are missing the part where conscripts have been equipped in their units for 2 and 8 months."

You are missing the point that conscripts, when their tour is up, do not take their equipment with them.

So if you are deploying the equipment with the conscripts, what will the next batch be equipped and trained with?
Pillz
Member
Wed Sep 21 16:34:29
Yes, of course, Donbas forces have been fighting Ukraine for 8 years on the side of Russia, and now this past year w/ the Russian military, but Seb hypothetical is that the true Donbas mentality is 'donbus vs russia'
jergul
large member
Wed Sep 21 16:37:25
Seb
Rear guard action? Donbas+ forces will enthusiastically fight to liberate their respective provinces, then secure their provinces thereafter. Including a 100km buffer zone since Ukr has made it clear nothing is safe within missile range.

Nothing more is needed from them beyond forming another basis from which to recruit contract soldiers into Russian formations. Integration into the Russian armed forces has more to do with equal treatment on military supplies instead of it being provided as aid.
Seb
Member
Wed Sep 21 16:37:53
"Aid will decrease, not increase, as Nato countries realize they actually have to be combat ready as Russian troop surges"

Russia's best troops were halted by NATO's surplus Javelins and a few spare HIMARS the US was about to phase out.

They can't even deny air space to Ukrainian's air force and got hammered by fairly old HARMs.

NATO forces would destroy Russian forces with standoff weapons if they crossed the border.
Seb
Member
Wed Sep 21 16:38:47
"The plan is to bleed the West dry and while Russia rotates East."

Come back here, tis only a flesh wound!
jergul
large member
Wed Sep 21 16:41:52
Seb
The next batch of equipment for newly activated brigades and divisions to home coming cohorts of conscripts along with mobilized reservist cadre comes from military stores, refitting and repair depots, and ongoing military production of course.

Deployable in 6 months times, so a significant window to bring everything to combat readiness.

This is exactly the kind of war the Russian military is designed to fight.
jergul
large member
Wed Sep 21 16:44:50
Seb
So the plan is to continue to degrade Nato combat capability by supplying Ukraine? Fair enough. Russia could not dream of an easier way to fight the specific hardware in question.

My gut instinct is that Nato members will take their own security first and make sure their forces have the weapons and ammo they need to meet Nato standards.
Seb
Member
Wed Sep 21 16:46:58
jergul:

"Ukraine is getting t-55s from slovenia"

Whaaaatabout Ukraine! This statement proves that Russia is well equipped how? We know Ukraine is desperately underequipped and relies on what surplus it can get from those willing to show goodwill.

Russia is scrabbling about for kit - we have plenty of documented examples of them sending defective kit onto the battlefield and their own forces dying as a result - most notably their fucking black sea flagship.

And that was the kit that was supposed to be active.

So re-activated T62s and stockpiled Nork artillery rounds we expect to have a low failure rate?

Hmm. Colour me skeptical.


Pillz:

"is that the true Donbas mentality is 'donbus vs russia'"

I don't think I said that at all. But we know your reading comprehension is low

Jergul:
"will enthusiastically fight to liberate their respective provinces" such as Kherson, Kharkiv etc?

I mean we've seen the gulf in equipment and how they get treated like shit - will we see them get suddenly upgraded to the level of Russian soldiers, or will we - as you suggest - see them continued to be treated as cannon fodder.


Pillz
Member
Wed Sep 21 16:51:51
http://t.me/intelslava/37645

In several Moscow police departments, those detained at protests against mobilization were handed summons to the military enlistment office, OVD-Info reports

The sebs and wtbs of russia finally take up arms!
Seb
Member
Wed Sep 21 16:52:32
"This is exactly the kind of war the Russian military is designed to fight."

On paper. But we know what is on paper is not what happens in practice. We only need to see the high equipment failure rate in the initial stages of the invasion and the very slow reforming and re-grouping of the formations that were pulled out of the North.

" Russia could not dream of an easier way to fight the specific hardware in question."

Russia is having to resort to partial mobilisation to beat the surplus class of relatively low end capabilities. Sure, they can't dream of an easier way to fight the specific hardware in question, that is because if they actually fought nato this hardware would barely be used and their conventional forces would be being pounded with standoff weapons, heavy armour and attack helicopters - and it looks like their capability to fight at that level of intensity and scale has been highly overrated.
Seb
Member
Wed Sep 21 16:54:33
The flipside of course is that NATO could not dream of an easier way to use said equipment to destroy Russian forces without actually having to put men, territory or actual big ticket items at risk.

obaminated
Member
Wed Sep 21 16:57:26
Pillz is commissar Danilov circa enemy at the gates.
Pillz
Member
Wed Sep 21 16:59:04
It's cute that Seb this the Russian military is as capable as ISIS

My reading comprehension skills are fine Seb, thank you. I wonder if Russian Seb understands what his papers mean though
obaminated
Member
Wed Sep 21 17:01:09
I love when someone declares their reading comprehension skills are fine only to post incoherent sentences in the same post.
Pillz
Member
Wed Sep 21 17:06:29
It's a single typo, you wetbsck piece of garbage
jergul
large member
Wed Sep 21 17:10:09
Seb
You should really stop with your childish whatabout whataboutism. It degrades from the quality of discourse.

T-62(m) have proven to be reliable and survivable with few losses reported. The reason they are being used is because they have a refit production line set up for Syria. The vehicles are easy to use for troops with limited training.

The T-55 was found inadequate for its role in the early 1960s. Hence its replacement by the T-62.

Russia is in the process of rotating from peacetime refitting and production to more of a wartime posture. Of course you will find limitations in the field while this materializes.

The black sea flagship was slated for replacement and retirement. Its last major refit was in 1998.

Any reason to believe Nork 122 mm missiles are of low quality, or that it would even matter if they were? So what if a missile or two is a dud in a mass barrage.

I think we will see Donbas+ used to secure quiet sectors and serve as a contract soldier recruitment pool once their province areas have been occupied. Including a 100km bufferzone perhaps.

The presidential decree gives supply equality with regular Russian units. "Cannonfodder" is not supported by facts on the ground. Donbas forces have been engaged since 2014 on what they consider their home turf. Losses are low and they do well both maintaining their forces and in small unit engagements.

Seb
Member
Wed Sep 21 17:12:56
Jergul:

Then stop making stupid and irrelevant comparisons that do not address people's points but serve only to try and deflect away from them.
jergul
large member
Wed Sep 21 17:18:30
Seb
Are you commiting fully to Nato will not think of its own defensive needs and can arm Ukraine freely because stand-off weapons"?
jergul
large member
Wed Sep 21 17:23:53
Seb
The question in Ukraine is always of comparative strength. A T-62 would be in trouble against an Abrams A1M2 as nothing it has could penetrate. In Ukraine however, it can play its role as about as well as any other MBT. That is not certain to be true of the T-55.

Russia is fighting Ukraine if you remembers. Comparisons are almost inevitably relevant.
Sam Adams
Member
Wed Sep 21 17:28:44
"We are using ancient tanks because our current tanks are also trash" is an interesting way to try to argue in favor of russian logistics jergul.
jergul
large member
Wed Sep 21 17:33:44
Sammy
It is the nature of the conflict. Ukraine is not a peer state, so t-62s are about as good as anything else.

Throwing them against Abrams A1M2s would be crazy. Russia has better tanks for that.
Seb
Member
Wed Sep 21 17:37:22
The double think is impressive: Russia can send T-62s to fight in Ukraine because it holds lots of T-90s to fight NATO. No sweat.

NATO will need to stop sending javelins and ammo to Ukraine even though it has lots of other weapon systems available to fight Russia.

Seb
Member
Wed Sep 21 17:40:27
Sam's point was that having to reactivate t-62s having run out of newer models in fighting condition demonstrates problems keeping troops equipped.

Pointing out a t-62 is better than a t-55 that Ukraine is getting from Slovenia is not to the point.
Pillz
Member
Wed Sep 21 17:47:11
You're assuming that there are not more modern tanks available for some reason, and not considering the fact that the T-62s are likely to never be used outside of this conflict anyways. Why not make use of the facilities they have and work through their surplus of T-62s which are good enough?
jergul
large member
Wed Sep 21 17:48:13
Seb
Russia will not need to do anything other than have its normal rotation forces along Nato's frontier.

The T-62s are for Donbas+ forces. The reason they are being supplied at all is because Russia has a refit depot for them. Originally to supply Syria, but repurposed for allied forces in Ukraine.

The tank is well suited for the task at hand. Low training requirements, easy to maintain, a decent firing platform, and highly survivable as very low loss numbers indicate.

This is probably not true of T-55s from Slovenia. Which Ukraine is getting anyway because they are better than nothing.

It is a point because of the comparative nature of the conflict. Donbas forces are better off with T-62s than Ukrainian forces are with T-55s.
jergul
large member
Wed Sep 21 17:50:06
Pillz
They are used in Syria by the Syrian regime. Hence why a refit depot was open anyway. A surprising number of T-62s are active globally because refitting them is a cost effective way of upgrading capabilities.
jergul
large member
Wed Sep 21 17:52:30
I think people tend to underestimate donbas forces. They have after all been facing off against highly professional Ukrainian units since 2014 (Ukraine chose to build tall 2014-2022 with relatively few highly professional units instead of numerous decent units).
swordtail
Anarchist Prime
Wed Sep 21 17:57:27
"They have after all been facing off against highly professional Ukrainian units since 2014"

they have been fighting against nazis that nato has been supporting/training since 2014.
Pillz
Member
Wed Sep 21 18:02:30
Yes, but realistically export potential for the T-62 is zero. Syria needed them and already had them in service in quantity, for 30 years.

Russia presumably has another ~1000 T-62s in storage and I don't see any international buyers - the only exports have been to Syria and Libya. Only a handful of countries have significant fleets of T-62s.

The Russians saw the potential for the T-62 in Ukraine, yes, but I'm sure the fact that it saves them modern equipment is a consideration.
jergul
large member
Wed Sep 21 18:03:36
Admittedly, there prolly was a pretty high tattoo density per square foot of skin, but sort of besides the point.

Donbas forces did fine against the best Ukraine had to offer.
Sam Adams
Member
Wed Sep 21 18:44:18

"they have been fighting against nazis that nato has been supporting/training since 2014. "

Imagine being this retarded.
Pillz
Member
Wed Sep 21 18:47:27
Why don't you just tell us what it's like?
earthpig
GTFO HOer
Wed Sep 21 18:49:27
Pillz rating has been upgraded to reflect that he has posted something from Telegram that does not reflect particularly well on Russia (handing out draft notices to detained protestors).
Pillz
Member
Wed Sep 21 18:50:20
I guess that's a matter of opinion
murder
Member
Wed Sep 21 19:45:29

"In several Moscow police departments, those detained at protests against mobilization were handed summons to the military enlistment office, OVD-Info reports"

I support Russia arming all its dissidents.

Seb
Member
Thu Sep 22 03:54:49
Pillz:

You remember all the breakdowns in the kit that was sent up to Bellorussia for the northern invasion?

There are also examples of Russian tanks where they are being fielded but cant shoot because their loaders are broken.

Why do we think that mothballed tanks and stuff coming out of the refit process are going to be much higher quality?
Habebe
Member
Thu Sep 22 04:06:31
Seen Russia launching "missiles" today. Seemed pretty small.
TheChildren
Member
Thu Sep 22 08:47:30
if we waz 2 believe any westoids, russia ran out of supplies, ammos and tanks 5 months ago.

what happened westoidz? oh they buyin from nkorea? so?

So?

jergul
large member
Thu Sep 22 09:25:10
LONDON, Sept 22 (Reuters) - Former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev said on Thursday that any weapons in Moscow's arsenal, including strategic nuclear weapons, could be used to defend territories incorporated in Russia from Ukraine.

Medvedev, deputy chairman of Russia's Security Council, said that referendums being organised by Russian-installed and separatist authorities in large swathes of Russian-occupied Ukrainian territory will take place, and that "there is no going back":

"The Donbas (Donetsk and Luhansk) republics and other territories will be accepted into Russia."

Medvedev said the protection of all the territories would be significantly strengthened by the Russian armed forces, adding:

"Russia has announced that not only mobilisation capabilities, but also any Russian weapons, including strategic nuclear weapons and weapons based on new principles, could be used for such protection."

The referendums due to take place in the Russian-held parts of Ukraine's Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia provinces, as well as part of Mykolaiv province, from Friday are widely expected to produce results overwhelmingly endorsing joining Russia.

The votes, being organised at a few days' notice under military occupation, have been labelled shams by Kyiv and its Western allies.

If formally admitted to the Russian Federation, the occupied territories, where Ukrainian counteroffensives have gathered pace in recent weeks, will under Moscow's nuclear doctrine be entitled to protection from Russian nuclear weapons.
jergul
large member
Thu Sep 22 09:46:54
ISW is just wrong:

"Putin’s order to mobilize part of Russia’s “trained” reserve, that is, individuals who have completed their mandatory conscript service, will not generate significant usable Russian combat power for months. It may suffice to sustain the current levels of Russian military manpower in 2023 by offsetting Russian casualties, although even that is not yet clear. It will occur in deliberate phases, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said in an interview on September 21, likely precluding any sudden influx of Russian forces that could dramatically shift the tide of the war.[2] Russia’s partial mobilization will thus not deprive Ukraine of the opportunity to liberate more of its occupied territory into and through the winter."

Its the conscript cycles, stupid. Individuals about to complete their conscript service are in their military units right now.

The only thing keeping them from beind deployed to Ukraine is the Constitution forbidding the use of conscripts outside of Russia as defined by Russia.

Russia gains 160k deployable, fully trained and embedded soldiers in one fell swoop. Not all of them are in units that are deployed in Ukraine of course, but I expect the net increase to be by around 60 000 over the next few weeks (including units that will be taken out of Ukraine to make room and give the basis for a brigade and division sized rotation schedual).
swordtail
Anarchist Prime
Thu Sep 22 09:52:14
"ISW is just wrong:"

they've been wrong since the beginning.
earthpig
GTFO HOer
Thu Sep 22 10:35:41
Detained protesters being handed draft summons cards has been confirmed by CNN.
Sam Adams
Member
Thu Sep 22 10:54:31
"Former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev said on Thursday that any weapons in Moscow's arsenal, including strategic nuclear weapons, could be used to defend territories incorporated in Russia from Ukraine."

Then russia should be annihilated and their genes removed from existence.
Pillz
Member
Thu Sep 22 10:57:52
"Detained protesters being handed draft summons cards has been confirmed by CNN."

I'm sure theyll receive warm welcomes from their units
Paramount
Member
Thu Sep 22 10:59:29
If Israel can annex the Golan Heights and Palestine, why can’t Russia annex Donbas. It’s mostly Russian speakers living there after all.
Sam Adams
Member
Thu Sep 22 11:01:26
Because Israel is about 58,000 times more trustworthy than russia, and isnt threatening nuclear war.
Paramount
Member
Thu Sep 22 11:05:49
If Israel’s existence was threatened they would use their nukes.

This is what Russia is saying, if Russia’s existence and territory is threatened they will use nukes.
nhill
Member
Thu Sep 22 11:07:41
This thread was named very well. Props murder
Paramount
Member
Thu Sep 22 11:11:43
Next thread could be named:

URAAA - Russian warcry
Habebe
Member
Thu Sep 22 11:39:47
IDK if trustworthiness related to annexation.

It's not like if they annexed the Donbas that all of a sudden they would go on an offensive.

That said, how much fucking land do they need?

They are also one of the best geographic areas for climate change, when 60% of your land is an ice cube you tend to welcome global warming.
Pillz
Member
Thu Sep 22 11:45:34
Read jergul's posts but the bare minimum Russia is taking.

Look at a map and you will see what else might go
obaminated
Member
Thu Sep 22 13:14:32
Support for the Russian invasion amongst the Russian people is so high that "how to break your arm at home" is becoming the top Google search on Russia. Lol. But pillz will still insist Russians support the war.
jergul
large member
Thu Sep 22 13:26:43
DPR says POW exchange was based on % of prisoners held principle. So Russia holds 5 times as many prisoners as Ukraine if true. Sounds credible.

Russia is only conscripting 120k this October (the mobilized people are mobilized under contractor terms). Down from 160 a year ago. That plays well with my idea that this october's conscripts are going mainly going to reactivated formations after they are done with recruit and specialist schools in Febuary.
murder
Member
Thu Sep 22 14:51:41

"I'm sure theyll receive warm welcomes from their units"

I don't see why not. Most deployed Russian troops aren't exactly thrilled to be in Ukraine.

murder
Member
Thu Sep 22 14:54:43

"Russia has announced that not only mobilisation capabilities, but also any Russian weapons, including strategic nuclear weapons and weapons based on new principles, could be used for such protection."

Strategic nuclear weapons can be used to preserve the international order.

Pillz
Member
Thu Sep 22 15:29:11
Lol
murder
Member
Thu Sep 22 15:41:07

"Russia is barking louder while ceding territory."

Same today as yesterday.

Pillz
Member
Thu Sep 22 19:11:20
Lol

Ukrainian attempts to take Liman by encirclement were unsuccessful. The city is under Russian control, there is no encirclement, the troops are on their original LOC

http://t.me/asbmil/5579

Pillz
Member
Thu Sep 22 19:15:47
Rybar reports that Belogarka in Kherson has changed hands again, to Russia this time.

Otherwise no advances by either side of not. Worthless settlements in western Kherson, a village near Lyman again.

The same things Ukraine takes every 2 days and abandons.

Missile strikes in Zaporizhzhia reported.
Sam Adams
Member
Thu Sep 22 22:50:20
Im pretty sure pillz is actually mentally ill.
murder
Member
Fri Sep 23 05:43:28

He's wishcasting. He hates his friendly neighbor superpower that lets him live in peace and freedom despite the massive border between us being undefendable. If we were what he believes we are, we would have taken all of Canada decades ago.

LazyCommunist
Member
Fri Sep 23 06:07:01
I don't like religion at all, but it can be useful sometimes

http://www...on-putin-death-ukraine-1745616

The head of the Russian Orthodox Church, Patriarch Kirill, urged Russian citizens on Wednesday not to be afraid of death amid President Vladimir Putin's decision to mobilize reserve troops to fight in Ukraine.

"Go bravely to fulfill your military duty. And remember that if you lay down your life for your country, you will be with God in his kingdom, glory and eternal life," he told a sermon at the Zachatyevsky Monastery in Moscow.

Kirill, who has justified Putin's decision to invade Ukraine in February on spiritual and ideological grounds, made the remarks shortly after Russian officials said up to 300,000 reservists would be called up to fight.


murder
Member
Fri Sep 23 06:10:09

Russian men are fleeing Russia in droves. Probably part of Putin's plan to repopulate the country.

murder
Member
Fri Sep 23 06:11:07

Also Putin's draft appears to be much broader than Putin claimed. This is going to be a clusterfuck.

Pillz
Member
Fri Sep 23 09:12:43
Russian men are not fleeing in droves.

Youre welcome to check border cam footage at places where mass exodus has been reported like Finland. Nothing. Nothing accompanied by a statement by the Finnish government that nothing was happening.

And I don't see how the scope is wider than Putin claimed? Like in what way?
murder
Member
Fri Sep 23 09:40:46

Patrick Reevell @Reevellp

Another revealing video. Scene inside a mustering station in Russia where an officer yells at angry, resentful men who have been mobilized.
“That’s it- playtime’s over. You’re soldiers now!”

http://twitter.com/Reevellp/status/1573272879655010306

murder
Member
Fri Sep 23 10:02:18
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