Utopia Talk / Politics / Dow breaks 30,000

Rugian Member	Fri Sep 23 10:06:00 Fucking hell. I'll post my Q3 results here when the quarter closes. Figure you could all have a laugh at my misfortune :p
murder Member	Fri Sep 23 10:12:49 We only laugh at TheChildren's misfortunes.
Habebe Member	Fri Sep 23 10:29:36 Im gonna miss being able to afford food.
murder Member	Fri Sep 23 10:54:51 Hunting and foraging are options.
superdude Member	Fri Sep 23 11:19:40 Joe Biden won't be happy until all of us are living in the street.
nhill Member	Fri Sep 23 11:21:23 It's a market cycle. You should be happy to dollar-cost-average right now, assuming you make regular contributions.
nhill Member	Fri Sep 23 11:21:53 Unless Rugian is a day trader trying to make a living on short term price movements. Hmm.
earthpig GTFO HOer	Fri Sep 23 11:35:21 Time to buy a little more.
earthpig GTFO HOer	Fri Sep 23 11:35:50 It really is too bad I'm already over-invested in my pet mortgage stock, divvy at today's price is 12%. :(
Habebe Member	Fri Sep 23 11:36:19 Actually, Ive been easing into longer term positions, at prices that in 2 years from now will be a steal.Many just by winter.
Rugian Member	Fri Sep 23 11:39:16 "nhill Member Fri Sep 23 11:21:53 Unless Rugian is a day trader trying to make a living on short term price movements. Hmm." Absolutely not. All my holds are for the long term.
nhill Member	Fri Sep 23 11:44:54 Good man.
Rugian Member	Fri Sep 23 11:47:16
Rugian Member	Fri Sep 23 11:52:06 But I don't think the market is anywhere close to bottoming out. Excessive liquidity infusions during Covid means that stocks are hugely inflated, so a 20% drop so far is really only a mild decline. The markets clearly haven't yet priced in further Fed increases through 2023, which are now more likely than not. Maybe people investing now might end up being lucky, but personally I think it's several months too early.
nhill Member	Fri Sep 23 12:01:10 If someone makes regular contributions every two weeks, they will accumulate more at cheaper prices, so it shouldn't be a problem. It's actually an opportunity to get a good cost basis before the next market cycle. If someone thinks they can YOLO their networth into the market today, they'd probably regret it. This looks like a bear winter. That said, I would expect it to correct to the value pre-covid at a minimum. Which the DOW just did. So it's a decent risk/reward here. Next target would be another 10% down (2018 high point). But if the pandemic rally really was just infused liquidity from unwise policy decisions, as it appears to be, the fair market value is likely the 2020 bottom before the Fed stepped in to prop up the markets. That's another 37% down from here for the DOW, and 40% more for the NASDAQ. If both of those valuations fail to hold, things will get extremely ugly. But the Fed will step in to prevent that IMO.
nhill Member	Fri Sep 23 12:06:11 The fact that everyone is talking about the bear market today leads me to believe that this could be the bottom, despite it being improbable otherwise. Usually when the normies start to finally talk about a bear market (instead of screaming "buy the dip!!!"), that's when the market starts to recover. Markets are a mechanism to transfer wealth from the patient to the impatient.
murder Member	Fri Sep 23 12:12:39 "If someone makes regular contributions every two weeks, they will accumulate more at cheaper prices, so it shouldn't be a problem. It's actually an opportunity to get a good cost basis before the next market cycle." ^
Rugian Member	Fri Sep 23 12:17:37 Nhill Cosmic karma aside, whats the economic data that suggests a turnaround is imminent?
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Fri Sep 23 12:28:19 http://www.tradingview.com/x/n3PiUZXf/ Gonna keep posting this, without the log scale, see how well it pans out :) http://www.tradingview.com/x/JtDRqFO6/ Based on some of the same assumptions. Tightening into a recession, energy prices and that the globalized economy and supply chains are not where they were pre covid. Provided no nukes go off or Putin isn't assassinated. :P "The fact that everyone is talking about the bear market today leads me to believe that this could be the bottom, despite it being improbable otherwise." At the same time, at some point this meme will have played itself out and become part of the collective understanding, that's when everyone is surprised, oh shit that wasn't the bottom! I agree DCAing from here on is probably a good idea though.
murder Member	Fri Sep 23 12:29:00 US Is Inflating Its Debt Away After Unprecedented Spending Binge When measured against the economy, America’s debt is set to post the biggest drop in at least two decades. For all the attention that soaring inflation has gotten this year, one of its most surprising direct offshoots has gone largely unnoticed: US government debt is shrinking rapidly. Not in dollars-and-cents terms. No, that’s growing day by day, minute by minute. But it’s dropping in the way that really matters: when measured against the inflated size of the economy. What It Means: The Good News This is a big break for the government and taxpayers. It makes the debt more manageable and easier to pay back. What It Means: The Bad News It’s lousy for bondholders. The money they’ll be repaid by the government will be worth a lot less than the money they put up. Now, don’t go thinking this means some new long-term trend. This year’s drop was preceded by two years of explosive growth in debt-to-GDP—remember all that pandemic aid from Presidents Trump and Biden?—and economists are still fretting about the outlook. That’s partly because the Federal Reserve is frantically raising interest rates to quell the surge in prices. What’s Next? So there’ll be less inflation, less economic growth, and fatter interest payments for the government to make … the perfect cocktail to send debt levels spiraling higher once again. http://www...inks-against-soaring-inflation
Habebe Member	Fri Sep 23 12:49:25 ^Bloomberg.... "What It Means: The Good News This is a big break for the government and taxpayers. It makes the debt more manageable and easier to pay back. What It Means: The Bad News It’s lousy for bondholders. The money they’ll be repaid by the government will be worth a lot less than the money they put up." This makes it seem like its good for regular people and the rich fat cats on Wall Street is who it hurts. Great narrative, but it's BS. We have seen one of the largest drops in household wealth in mabey 40 years. People are spending a larger chunk of their income on essentials. Taxes have clearly increased. It takes more work to buy most anything, especially large ticket items like a car or house.
nhill Member	Fri Sep 23 13:05:38 >Cosmic karma aside, whats the economic data that suggests a turnaround is imminent? None, which is my point above. We've reached the event horizon. The levels now are the *minimum* I would expect to drop, as our economy isn't healthier than pre-COVID, just the stock market got decoupled from the economy due to Fed propping up the market. Now, things were already propped up pre-COVID, which is why I think either the 2018 high or COVID bottom are more accurate valuations for a turnaround. And by turnaround, I mean the Fed deciding to prop up the markets again, because that's the way the world works these days.
nhill Member	Fri Sep 23 13:14:11 My comment above about it possibly being the bottom was only half serious. Usually when everyone starts to say that the bottom isn't even close, the bottom is very close. Just a silly observation.
Habebe Member	Fri Sep 23 14:16:55 Nhill, I think the covid bottom had alot of fear mixed into it as well though, so Mabry not all the way, but then like you said 2018 was already being propped up to a degree as well. But your general assessment is spot on. At this point I don't see a realistic way forward without pain. BUT* when this does flip eventually, we could be looking at a fucking epic wave for a while.
nhill Member	Fri Sep 23 15:02:01 Agree Habebe. Nimatzo's chart captures my thoughts on the COVID bottom stimulated recovery. I think it'd be frontran, and, as we approach it, the Fed would step in and start printing money before it fully hits (or enough people will think that to slow the trend). But that's all contingent on when. They aren't going to save anyone while inflation is still 8% YoY. The Fed will print money until people start to think about revolt (see: black lives matters, occupy wall st., et al.) due to their quality of life decreasing from inflationary forces. Once people settle down and get complacent, the Fed will steal money from average citizens again and funnel it to the oligarchs. Thankfully, we're all smart enough here to be able to ride that wave. Main street always gets fucked for wall st, no matter how you look at it.
Habebe Member	Fri Sep 23 15:44:31 I mean we can all blame Biden...and certainly he has made moves that IMO are not helping. But I think we all agree there is no way forward without pain, regardless of policy, short of looting other countries.
nhill Member	Fri Sep 23 15:49:18 We can more easily blame Trump, as he was in power while the M2 money supply increased at unprecedented levels. But blaming either person would be a mark of an unintelligent person. The alternative is to accept reality. Ever since the 70s we have had market cycles every 11 years on avg (8-14 in range I believe), by design. It's a gradual repeated pump and dump on the American people, funded and executed by a private corporation called the Federal Reserve.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Fri Sep 23 15:51:06 Nhill "until people start to think about revolt" Was joking with my father the other day talking about the global mess, I said the only solution left is Molotov cocktails, but with these gas prices, I think revolution is not economically feasible for most people. :D
nhill Member	Fri Sep 23 15:52:51 The Federal Reserve, is, of course, run by the oligarchy. The same oligarchy that came up with a great marketing plan of having two parties that appeal to different subsets of the uninformed American populace, called Democrats and Republicans. Which is why I will never vote, because you are simply voting for the same people each election, depending on which marketing plan vibes with your current beliefs.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Fri Sep 23 15:55:18 "Which is why I will never vote, because you are simply voting for the same people each election, depending on which marketing plan vibes with your current beliefs." :,)
nhill Member	Fri Sep 23 15:56:06 I haven't voted a single time in my life, at least not formally. My vote is, and always has been, a dismantling of the oligarchy. Which I can only vote for via my silence.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Fri Sep 23 16:04:37 We are of the same mind friend. I do vote for municipal elections here in Sweden. It seems to work much better, not as much political bullshit. Makes sense, especially in smaller communities. You get to national level and it's a fucking circus of retardation.
nhill Member	Fri Sep 23 16:06:52 That makes sense. I've lived most my life on the road and the farm. Neither place has relevant municipal elections. :)
nhill Member	Fri Sep 23 16:15:06 Nimatzo is my long lost city-dwelling brother ;)
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Fri Sep 23 16:32:35 I am indeed, can't deny it :) Our entire municipality is 7000 people :D the township 3000.
Habebe Member	Fri Sep 23 16:42:13 Habebenomics does fully support the theory of looting foreign nations as a shiet term fix. Nhill, I think we all also realize the covid thing was alot of act now figure it out later. The new regime has still outspent 2019 levels by more than double , even without the pandemic bailouts. EP had asked in an earlier thread what would classical economists offer. And I think we all know Milton would say slash excess spending, it will still hurt, but it will cure inflation in due time.
nhill Member	Fri Sep 23 16:51:08 A new system will only come once we overthrow the oligarch. Classical economics is a pointless mental masturbation until that happens.
nhill Member	Fri Sep 23 16:51:51 That is how I personally see it. I recognize that others like to think more about how to solve future problems than current problems.
nhill Member	Fri Sep 23 16:53:06 I don't understand it logically, of course, as 100% of energy would ideally be allocated to current problems within a strategical framework (otherwise how would you know it was a current item?). But I don't understand a lot of human behavior. Oh well.
Rugian Member	Sat Sep 24 09:03:12 "Once people settle down and get complacent, the Fed will steal money from average citizens again and funnel it to the oligarchs. Thankfully, we're all smart enough here to be able to ride that wave." Easy for you to ride the wave. Easy for me. Not easy for people who happened to be planning to retire, or who are going through a medical crisis or some other sort of tough time. Turns out, giving near-dictatorial powers over the entire national economy to a bunch of wannabe Beltway technocrats is a bad thing, which leads to millions of people regularly getting fucked over by idiots who think that the country can be centrally managed like an outsized game of Sim City. We won't learn though. All of our established institutions support the continued accumulation of power to that cabal of neo-Neros, and they've been moving to suppress "misinformation" from the alternative voices who dare to speak out against the regime.
nhill Member	Sat Sep 24 09:55:29 That's why I said smart enough *here*. The rest is true, of course, and echoes what I said above.
nhill Member	Sat Sep 24 09:59:11 The only exception I would take is that we will overthrow this system. Unfortunately, it is likely that the USA goes down with the ship. Timeframe is 20-70 years, most likely.
Hrothgar Member	Sat Sep 24 10:09:37 If/when it goes below 27k I'm moving my 'protected' money market funds back into an index fund until Dow it reaches a new all time high or I turn 60 (15 years), whichever comes first.
Habebe Member	Sat Sep 24 10:47:10 "Not easy for people who happened to be planning to retire, or who are going through a medical crisis or some other sort of tough time." Which is why the closer to retirement you get, the more you push your assets into safer havens. Little cancellation to those who didn't, or trusted money managers though, I know that.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Sat Sep 24 12:42:03 Just gonna leave this here. I wrote this in 2020. Did not count for the Russian invasion of Ukraine so clearly the problems that covid subdued emerged much sooner than I expected. We are back to semi normal in 2022, not everyone is back to normal. 2023 market bottom still in play as well as global civilization collapse in 2028. I would revise that to 2026. I have made my bet! Nimatzo iChihuaha Sat Dec 19 09:06:54 Rugian I will try to help you avoid future disappointment. Things will go back to semi normal early 2022, provided the vaccine works and no mutations fuck things up even worse. Even then not everyone will go back to normal. Economy will not recover until 2023 and 2024 we will experience a fake economic boom recovering lost ground. In 2025 all the problems that covid subdued will be back and ultimately put us back on track for ww3 and global civilizational collapse, around 2028.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Sat Sep 24 12:45:43 http://utopiaforums.com/boardthread?id=politics&thread=87258
nhill Member	Sat Sep 24 13:13:11 I feel the same up until 2025, where I think things get much better. :) WW3 magnitude event on my horizon, but longer term. But we have the same overall thesis...just different timeframes. I think there's one more market cycle left before the true decline.
murder Member	Sat Sep 24 13:35:18 "All of our established institutions support the continued accumulation of power to that cabal of neo-Neros, and they've been moving to suppress "misinformation" from the alternative voices who dare to speak out against the regime." It's amazing how fast people can get conned into believing anything. Our system rewards a class of people, not particular individuals. Here's a list of the wealthiest Americans ... http://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#3d63b6df3d78 How many of the people at the top of this list are named Rockefeller? How many of them inherited their wealth from their dynastic families? Hint: The ones that are are right wingers. Who are these neo-Neros that have continued to accumulate power?
nhill Member	Sat Sep 24 13:38:29 Leave it to murder to make this about my team is better than your team. This childish behavior must stop :) Argue about football teams if you must waste your cycles.
nhill Member	Sat Sep 24 13:44:42 You idiots don't get that both teams are working together to perpetuate the oligarchy on your dumbasses and keep you distracted. Basically exactly what you did here. Good work, oligarch NPC.
Habebe Member	Sat Sep 24 13:55:14 I ducking hate auto-correct. :)
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Sat Sep 24 17:58:23 Nhill Yea, I was imprecise with "all the problems covid subdued", but the Russian invasion and everything that has followed, made me more pessimistic. But if we can have another market cycle that would be great :) What year would you place the ultimate decline?
nhill Member	Sun Sep 25 22:36:07 Very tough to say, but, based on previous market cycles and taking into account that the rate of decline is tough to predict, I would say by 2032-2042. This is the model I'm partial to at the moment, but I do entertain many models with the core thesis that USA Empire will be overthrown violently (like markets, empires have cycles too, or, perhaps more accurately, migrations). Stability around 2024 for USA, 2025 for globe, market cycle, complacency, and then things come to a head.
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