Utopia Talk / Politics / (War) Game of Oblasts: Winter is Coming

murder Member	Sat Oct 01 08:00:27 ;o)
Habebe Member	Sat Oct 01 08:05:16 Is this the pointless Ukraine-Russo war thread?
murder Member	Sat Oct 01 08:08:08 Not obvious enough? :o)
Habebe Member	Sat Oct 01 08:09:54 So, its not surrendering. The gist I got was Russia wants the land they annexed and will withdraw from the rest. Why should I care about the Ukraine losing 10% of their land that hasn't been under their control for over a decade anyway? And by care I mean, have USD sent their, US military there, pay more for energy and food. Watch Europe freeze, because this somehow makes us stronger, even though even US mikitsry has said our stockpiles are low.
Habebe Member	Sat Oct 01 08:11:37 Because lets be clear. If US involvement is pulled, sure, let Ukraine keep fighting all they want, again, its not my place to care whatever they do.
Seb Member	Sat Oct 01 08:16:13 Pillz, you were saying about Lyman?
murder Member	Sat Oct 01 08:19:21 The only question right now is whether Putin can force Russian men to deploy to Ukraine faster than Russian men are running away from Ukraine. Russian forces are overmatched and don't seem capable of doing much besides trading fire before collapsing.
murder Member	Sat Oct 01 08:19:47 "Pillz, you were saying about Lyman?" Still Russian. ;o)
murder Member	Sat Oct 01 08:26:39 At what point do deployed Russians figure out that they have a better chance fighting the soldiers behind them than the soldiers in front of them?
jergul large member	Sat Oct 01 08:27:46 Murder So Ukraine may bag as many as 100 prisoners? Yah, Russia can definitely get in more troops than that. Russia's problem is that it is still seriously outnumbered, so is trading space for time. It is slightly worrying that Ukraine was unable to seal off Lyman and actually bag at least a couple 100 prisoners. The only question is really what happens when platoon sized engagements increase in scale to battalion sized engagements.
Paramount Member	Sat Oct 01 08:38:22 Why doesn’t Russia just carpet bomb the Ukrainan troops?
Paramount Member	Sat Oct 01 08:39:49 I’m not a five star general, but the more bombs you drop on them the more are you going to kill, right?
Habebe Member	Sat Oct 01 08:50:22 Jergul is probably more familiar with Russian military, but Inwas under the impression they were an artillery heavy military. Basically they like to shell the fuck out of opposition and then clean up with soldiers. But again, Im not super familiar with them.
jergul large member	Sat Oct 01 09:25:03 Access denial. Russia has not degraded Ukrainian air defences enough to bring in strategic bombers with 90 000 pound payloads. Arty heavy is also true because Russian doctrine does not assume air dominance.
murder Member	Sat Oct 01 09:50:53 "So Ukraine may bag as many as 100 prisoners?" This isn't Pokemon. You don't have to collect them all. "Russia's problem is that it is still seriously outnumbered, so is trading space for time." Russia's problem is that they are getting stomped. They bit off more than they could chew, and they can't adjust to what is happening to them. They are being exposed badly in every way possible. Hopefully this will settle them the fuck down so they don't engage in any more misadventures. And hopefully they get rooted out of Moldova too.
jergul large member	Sat Oct 01 09:53:09 Murder Bit off more than they could chew without partially mobilizing. Its not Ukraine per se really, but the combined arsenals and information gathering assets of the Western world. Ukraine is hosting and providing staff at this point. I dont think there is much pre war hardware left.
murder Member	Sat Oct 01 09:54:47 "Why doesn’t Russia just carpet bomb the Ukrainan troops?" Russia can't afford to disarm itself. Modern weapon systems are expensive and increasingly unaffordable for them, so they have to hold back their newest and most critical equipment. Getting their bombers blown out of the sky would be more than just embarrassing.
jergul large member	Sat Oct 01 10:03:37 They are only new in comparison to your fleet of B-52s. Only Patom had been bord of us when they were produced :D.
jergul large member	Sat Oct 01 10:03:48 born*
murder Member	Sat Oct 01 10:17:05 Newest and most critical weren't necessarily related. Some stuff is new and expensive, and some stuff is older but critical.
Sam Adams Member	Sat Oct 01 10:51:43 Lyman is ukrainian and pillz and sowrdfail are crying.
Habebe Member	Sat Oct 01 11:04:39 Did the Ukrainians take another a city?
Habebe Member	Sat Oct 01 11:07:50 Oh shit, they took an annexed city. Russia retreated again rather than defend, they are doing that alot.
murder Member	Sat Oct 01 11:20:00 It's going to happen more and more as their supply lines get cut or disrupted.
jergul large member	Sat Oct 01 11:35:06 Habebe It should happen less and less as Russia begins to rotate in full strength divisions to replace partial divisions. Annexation is primarily about internal legal stuff that kept Russia from deploying properely. Just think of it as a reverse Potus Comitatus.
jergul large member	Sat Oct 01 11:35:33 replace partial battalions*
Habebe Member	Sat Oct 01 11:47:23 Whichever ends this sooner is what I'll root for. It doesn't seem important for me either way who wins.Eastern Ukraine might as well be the Land of OZ.
jergul large member	Sat Oct 01 12:03:16 I don't think it can end for a long time. Cool down maybe, but not end.
murder Member	Sat Oct 01 12:04:10 Saint Javelin @saintjavelin Ukraine liberated Lyman And the russians are saying they were just reorganizing And now, the Belbek airbase in Crimea, which is used by the russian air force, has spontaneously combusted And the russians are saying a plane skidded off the runway Straight into an ammo depot? http://twitter.com/saintjavelin/status/1576231644524347392 ^ video at link
murder Member	Sat Oct 01 12:05:17 "It should happen less and less as Russia begins to rotate in full strength divisions to replace partial divisions." Your faith is extraordinary ... but it will not be rewarded.
murder Member	Sat Oct 01 12:08:16 Where jergul says "full strength divisions", read rabble. In fact it's only a matter of time until Putin starts paying Ron DeSantis to fly some Mexicans over to man their front lines. ;o)
jergul large member	Sat Oct 01 12:11:47 Murder Its just a numbers game. Ukraine began mobilizing in Febuary. Russia began mobilizing last week. I was completely unsurprised that Ukraine captured Lyman. Frankly, I thought it would be more photo-optic than it seems so far. Numbers matter. We will see what happens when Russia gains something resembling force parity along the line of contact.
Habebe Member	Sat Oct 01 12:31:59 Jergul, I agree, this could easily be a 5 yr + event. Afghanistan 2.0, Vietnam 3.0. Always fighting a bad guy, never accomplishing much other than wasting resources.We are really good at that.
Habebe Member	Sat Oct 01 12:37:30 "In fact it's only a matter of time until Putin starts paying Ron DeSantis to fly some Mexicans over to man their front lines. ;o)" Brilliant! Jergul, All coverage from people familiar with the war who don't have a horse in the race still say there is no military math that has the Ukraine doing anything but wasting Russian resources, they can't win. The way I see it, this war will end at the negotiating table eventually. It just matters how much we spend to get there.
jergul large member	Sat Oct 01 13:16:05 Habebe Ukraine can win. Russia could suffer a crisis in confidence at all levels. But then, That could happen in Ukraine too. Russia is not the country with a 5th of its population abroad as refugees.
Habebe Member	Sat Oct 01 13:52:12 It's not the Ukrainians I think will say enough is enough. It's the American Taxpayer.
jergul large member	Sat Oct 01 14:05:11 Habebe You are quite patient with these kind of expenses. But at worst, Ukraine can pretend to borrow the money from you.
murder Member	Sat Oct 01 17:05:57 "Numbers matter." Pardon the wordplay but ... all numbers aren't equal. Having the wrong numbers can be worse than having smaller numbers.
murder Member	Sat Oct 01 17:07:33 "All coverage from people familiar with the war who don't have a horse in the race still say there is no military math that has the Ukraine doing anything but wasting Russian resources, they can't win." Ukraine is literally kicking Russia's ass all over Eastern Ukraine.
Habebe Member	Sat Oct 01 17:25:58 "Having the wrong numbers can be worse than having smaller numbers." Murder, Is that what she told you? "Ukraine is literally kicking Russia's ass all over Eastern Ukraine." NATO has forced Russia to retreat, alot. But they still only won back a small sliver of what was taken. Its a great story, the rag tag kids fighting the big machine, but in the real world, they don't win. There are certain guidelines of war. 1. Don't start a land war in Asia. 2. Don't invade the US, we will cross a frozen river to kill you in your sleep on Christmas. 3. Winter favors Russia. Describe a plausible end game where the Ukraine boots Russia out, because I don't see it. We're running low on Javelins as it is.
jergul large member	Sat Oct 01 17:34:41 Murder I don't think Russia will ever gain troop parity in Ukraine. Ukr has after all mobilized 1 million men and I imagine Russia will cap out at about 250-300k in Ukraine at any given time. But it will dramatically decrease Ukrainian troop superiority along the line of contact.
Habebe Member	Sat Oct 01 17:39:47 Does someone have a link to good estimates on military numbers? Wiki is sort of all over the map.
jergul large member	Sat Oct 01 17:49:03 There are no good numbers available. Ukraine has at least a 1:3 advantage for its offensives. Probably significantly more. The Russian problem is not that it is being fought down, but more that its lines are so porous that Ukr can just push if it avoids strong points. The Russians get to choose if they want to hold after getting cut off and count on a counter attack, or retreat. The answer until now has been retreat. Airpower and Arty cannot hold ground. They can only inflict a price on an advance.
jergul large member	Sat Oct 01 17:54:59 But for total numbers. Russia (we can now call everything Russia now I guess) has 150k in Ukraine max. Ukraine has about number parity along the line of contact, but can surge numbers to gain 3:1 in limited sectors at a time. Russian numbers are currently trending towards 300k. More importantly, units can now be deployed within their organic structures instead of as fragmented battalions. I am interested to see what becomes of the Donbas forces. Manpower reserves for regular forces, or will Russia build up brigades around the existing units? I suspect a mix.
jergul large member	Sat Oct 01 17:56:39 Murder Chechnya has refused to partially mobilize, saying it already is overforfilling mobilization demands. True enough. Russia would need to mobilize 600k to reach Chechnyan commitments. Kadyrov is mighty pissed off.
murder Member	Sat Oct 01 19:31:46 Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en That was quick. http://twi..._en/status/1576277162201522176
Pillz Member	Sat Oct 01 19:54:01 Russia doesn't need troop parity, and they don't need to make a grand stand against overwhelming Ukrainian numbers. They just need to bleed the AFU dry of men & armour and then initial their own offensives. Murder/seb/sam are retarded
murder Member	Sat Oct 01 20:19:09 You have to have drunk a lot of Kool-Aid to see what is going on and convince yourself that Russia isn't getting smoked. Ukrainian forces keep getting better and Russian forces keep getting worse. That is why Ukraine is defeating Russia over and over again. Ukrainian forces are getting stronger relative to Russian forces, not weaker. They are getting better training and gaining combat experience and they are making better use of both.
jergul large member	Sat Oct 01 20:32:49 Murder That was quite an upbeat take on it. Ukrainian forces have taken a huge hit quality wise. Part of the problem of building tall. It had a number of elite units designed to fight low intensity conflicts like Donbas. The operative word is had. The offensives (two to be exact) were fuelled by local superiority and porous Russian lines, stockpiles it took months to build up and the results were underwhelming. Sure, the Russians were pushed back, but no massive encirclements, pows, kills, or material losses. Sure, the untrained mobilization army is now slightly trained. We will see how it plays out, but Russia will probably limit Ukraines only advantage quite dramatically.
jergul large member	Sun Oct 02 09:58:42 Donetsk and Luhansk are to be republics in Russia. Kherson and Zaporhozhie to be "entities" in Russia. In so far as I understand it, the terminology provides territorial flexibility. While the two first are taken in with part of their territory "occupied" by Ukraine, the two last ones are undefined territorially.
Seb Member	Sun Oct 02 10:13:22 This whole line that Ukraine has run out of troops - they've cancelled the draft for this year. I think you are overestimating their losses.
Habebe Member	Sun Oct 02 10:25:10 "You have to have drunk a lot of Kool-Aid to see what is going on and convince yourself that Russia isn't getting smoked." That goes both ways. Yes, the Ukraine retook 5% of what was taken, and in very good locations as I understand it. I've heard today that Erdogan has pulled support for Russia (he was playing both sides) Again, good news for the Ukrainians. But losing 1/5 of your country isn't isn't "smoking" the invading force either. Your whole argument is based on "Well they are doing better, they are going to win" They are doing better than expected, militarily it doesn't seem plausible they win. The only chance they have is that the West's support can outlast Russia. Considering the sanctions backfired and clearly did way more damage to the west while making Russia rich seems to suggest that isn't the best bet. And winter favors Russia. IF* the Ukraine/west get a mild winter & the economy picks up, then mabey it's got a better shot at winning.
jergul large member	Sun Oct 02 11:06:04 Seb What overstate losses? Ukraine has tons of people in uniform. Arguably way more than they need, but better than them scamming on the streets in a broken economy. Better that the 18 year olds spend more time on the internet. Also, training facilities is a well-known bottleneck. I think Ukraine is wearing out its hardware fast, but that is a different matter.
Forwyn Member	Sun Oct 02 11:14:38 "they've cancelled the draft for this year" So they can stop shooting fleeing people, that's good lol
Habebe Member	Sun Oct 02 11:25:57 "I think Ukraine is wearing out its hardware fast, but that is a different matter." This is a serious matter that money alone can't fix completely. IE: The US is running out of Javelins for example and physically can't produce them aa fast as they are flying off the shelves. We are already short on our supply for our own need.
murder Member	Sun Oct 02 13:01:15 "That goes both ways. Yes, the Ukraine retook 5% of what was taken, and in very good locations as I understand it." Ukraine has taken back most of what Russia occupied. "And winter favors Russia." Nothing favors Russia.
murder Member	Sun Oct 02 13:02:48 WarMonitor @WarMonitor3 Russian source on Kherson "A difficult situation is beginning to take shape in the Kherson direction." "It is too early to talk about the loss of control of units and unorganized withdrawal. In the coming hours, if no action is taken, the situation could turn into a disaster." http://twi...56384?cxt=HHwWgMCixY-houErAAAA
murder Member	Sun Oct 02 13:04:11 WarMonitor @WarMonitor3 Another "Defense breakthrough in Dudchany, Kherson region. UA broke through with the forces of 17 tanks and 11 infantry fighting vehicles." http://twi...28160?cxt=HHwWgMCjraCApOErAAAA
jergul large member	Sun Oct 02 13:04:14 Ukraine could be pushing with as many as 100 AFVs. It is smart to get its slugs in now. Soon, things will likely be way more difficult.
murder Member	Sun Oct 02 14:16:49 If you're counting on masses of untrained and disciplined Russians who don't want to be there turning the tide of battle ... good luck.
murder Member	Sun Oct 02 14:21:17 undisciplined*
murder Member	Sun Oct 02 15:07:04 WarMonitor @WarMonitor3 Russian forces requesting urgent air support on social media on the Kherson frontline near the breakthroughs. http://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1576655473905844224
murder Member	Sun Oct 02 15:10:07 Russell van NAFO @RussellWarshay This is the best air support Russian forces can expect. http://twitter.com/RussellWarshay/status/1576655840383143938 lol :o)
jergul large member	Sun Oct 02 15:15:25 Strelkov is requesting* Fixed that for you. He is sort of cpt obvious, but it depends on the status of air defences. It often becomes quite porous when Ukraine advances.
jergul large member	Sun Oct 02 17:50:07 Murder We should be able to see in 6-8 weeks what sup. In a general trendsurfing way at least.
murder Member	Sun Oct 02 22:54:38 ISW @TheStudyofWar 10/ #Russian State Duma MPs withdrew a law that would have given mobilized men a one-time payment of 300,000 rubles (about $4,980) and other benefits, without providing a reason for their decision. http://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1576779166887731202
murder Member	Sun Oct 02 23:03:37 WarMonitor @WarMonitor3 Winter is coming http://twi...67746?cxt=HHwWhMCt_dD7weErAAAA I knew I should have trademarked that. >:o(
murder Member	Mon Oct 03 00:10:30 Moshe Schwartz @YWNReporter The B-52 of drones. http://twitter.com/YWNReporter/status/1576694491989565440 I thought it was going to take off with the blocks. lol :o)
jergul large member	Mon Oct 03 01:21:19 Yah, that was just a funny to see how much it could technically lift. I think it made its max altitude, speed and range in that clip :). No comment on the signing bonus. Who knows.
murder Member	Mon Oct 03 03:09:10 Why offer them a bonus when you can just force them to go?
jergul large member	Mon Oct 03 03:12:07 Lots of reasons.
jergul large member	Mon Oct 03 03:14:26 CNN was among the first media outlets into the recently liberated city, arriving 30 minutes after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky declared Lyman completely cleared of Russians troops. Ukrainian officials and troops had spoken repeatedly of large numbers of Moscow’s better units being trapped there. Yet on Sunday there were few signs of encirclement to be seen. Some officials said Russian corpses had already been cleared away and prisoners removed. But locals offered another explanation: that Russian forces had left the city on Friday in an orderly fashion. “They got on their tanks, and drove out,” said Tanya, riding her bicycle back to the bomb shelter, where she still spends the nights with 15 others.
McKobb Member	Mon Oct 03 03:25:48 'Ukrainian officials have been warning for some time that Russia planned on using its claimed annexations as a pretext to draft Ukrainians in occupied areas to use as “cannon fodder.”' that can't backfire
Seb Member	Mon Oct 03 03:40:17 So apparently Russian media is reporting that the 1.5m uniforms in storage for mobilisation are mysteriously not there. What a metaphor.
jergul large member	Mon Oct 03 04:39:55 Mckobb Why would it backfire? Annexed territories have been under occupation for a while. Military aged men that still there are because they want to be there.
Pillz Member	Mon Oct 03 04:56:05 IIT Murder, Sam, Seb et al are retards locked in some weird group delusion
murder Member	Mon Oct 03 05:03:26 "So apparently Russian media is reporting that the 1.5m uniforms in storage for mobilisation are mysteriously not there." It's OK, this is an informal war. Casual attire is fine. Come as you are.
murder Member	Mon Oct 03 05:06:37 "Why would it backfire? Annexed territories have been under occupation for a while. Military aged men that still there are because they want to be there." See the US as an example of what can happen when you give unhappy people access to guns. Although following along with the Come As You Are theme, it would make perfect sense if they don't have a gun.
LazyCommunist Member	Mon Oct 03 06:00:26 Remember how often he was wrong in the past, he is wrong this time, too. He gives out no details, how could he as he is only spreading lies. Liar, liar, pants on fire! http://twi...cis/status/1576814074750726144 Francis Fukuyama A much bigger Russian collapse will unfold in the coming days. Oct 3, 2022
murder Member	Mon Oct 03 08:16:05 Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en "Russian lend lease" in action in Kherson region. Ukrainian Army received a heavy fire system Solntsepyok (Flame Thrower) as a goodwill gesture. "Russian troops retreat victoriously, Ukrainian Army runs after them in panic", - as Russian TV says. http://twi..._en/status/1576921732241592321
Sam Adams Member	Mon Oct 03 12:16:01 A russian propaganda account with a rare honest look at the russian army: http://mob...oka/status/1576710664240128000 I especially like this bit "As usual there no help from aviation, which remained somewhere in the 1970s"
Habebe Member	Mon Oct 03 13:03:10 "See the US as an example of what can happen when you give unhappy people access to guns." When was the last time we had foreign armies holding 20% of our territory?
Habebe Member	Mon Oct 03 13:04:22 Btw, to the OP gamemof thrones reference. WTF! They changed half the actors halfway through season 1? Dumb move.
earthpig GTFO HOer	Mon Oct 03 14:25:45 " Some officials said Russian corpses had already been cleared away and prisoners removed. But locals offered another explanation: that Russian forces had left the city on Friday in an orderly fashion. “They got on their tanks, and drove out,” said Tanya, riding her bicycle back to the bomb shelter, where she still spends the nights with 15 others. " I'd guess the local Russian commander negotiated with the Ukrainian commander that if allowed to retreat, they wouldn't destroy any more stuff in the city.
jergul large member	Mon Oct 03 14:35:27 EP Not that kind of situation (very fluid with many independent Ukr units involved) and also the timeline is wrong. Russia was free to just drive out of the miniature pocket on Friday. It aint Iraq.
Habebe Member	Mon Oct 03 15:59:06 Hmmm AP: Russia stole at least $530 million worth of Ukrainian grain. The AP and PBS used satellite imagery and marine radio transponder data to track three dozen ships making more than 50 voyages carrying grain from Russian-occupied Ukrainian ports to the Middle East.
Habebe Member	Mon Oct 03 16:04:56 Elon proposed a reasonable compromise basically saying, we all know Russia's referendum was a sham, lets get legit peace keeping forces and let them vote for self determination. The responses show you how brainwashed people are by the drums of war.
Seb Member	Mon Oct 03 16:19:34 Habebe: Dude, you know, however nice you are able him, he's got going to fuck you.
jergul large member	Mon Oct 03 16:30:18 Habebe He did not say peacekeeping forces. He said UN monitored referenda. The outcome of those are not given at all and would almost certainly result in territorial losses to Ukraine beyond Crimea.
jergul large member	Mon Oct 03 16:33:19 Its part of why invasions and occupations are bad. Facts on the ground change irreversably. There is no way to get a referenda result that you would have in january 2022 or january 2014 for that matter. Referenda now would just reward Putin for bad behavior. Perhaps not as much as he wants, but some reward anyway.
jergul large member	Mon Oct 03 16:35:25 The best case is a frozen conflict were the eventual outcome is determined by relative prosperity. Will rejoining Ukraine make people better off?
Habebe Member	Mon Oct 03 16:52:59 "He did not say peacekeeping forces. He said UN monitored referenda." He later said something to the effect of "Or peace keeping entity of your choice"
Habebe Member	Mon Oct 03 16:56:47 No, I’m suggesting voting under UN (or pick your most trusted entity or country) supervision There it is. Paraphrased close enough. Yeah, it's not ideal, but it beats the alternative.
Habebe Member	Mon Oct 03 18:05:16 "F--- off is my very diplomatic reply to you," Ukraine's outgoing ambassador to Germany, Andrij Melnyk, wrote in response to Musk's tweet. "The only outcome is that now no Ukrainian will EVER buy your f…ing tesla crap. So good luck to you." Ungrateful savages. They turn on someone so quick. UkraineX: How Elon Musk’s space satellites changed the war on the ground From artillery strikes to Zoom calls, the tech billionaire’s internet service has become a lifeline in the fight against Russia. Savage hubris.
jergul large member	Mon Oct 03 18:35:54 There is an expectation of absolute loyalty to Ukraine. Understandable as Western messaging has indicated that is the case. But that is the outspoken ambassador is it not? The guy who called the German FM something or another?
Sam Adams Member	Mon Oct 03 18:36:52 "Elon proposed a reasonable compromise" No. Here is an actual reasonable compromise. Russia keeps crimea and lnr dpr. Putin and his top officers will not be executed and are given personal immunity. Russia pays ukraine 500 billion in reparations for war crimes Russia pays NATO 100 billion in reparations for nuclear threats. Some sanctions are removed.
Habebe Member	Mon Oct 03 18:48:08 Im ok with most of that. The US should get 5% of Gazprom.
Forwyn Member	Mon Oct 03 19:59:23 "Here is an actual reasonable compromise." Actually fair
murder Member	Mon Oct 03 22:05:06 "No. Here is an actual reasonable compromise. Russia keeps crimea and lnr dpr." No, here is a reasonable compromise. Russia gets the fuck back to its own side of the border and stays there. Any Ukrainian national who wishes to join Russia can do what Elon did when he was no longer happy in California ... pack their shit and move.
murder Member	Mon Oct 03 22:06:50 Elon Musk was never helping. He was marketing Starlink and securing yet more taxpayer dollars. The US government should revoke every contract he's got and ground him.
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