Utopia Talk / Politics / (War) MAGAlomaniac enters the chat

murder Member	Mon Oct 03 22:14:16 Imagine Elon Musk being a total piece of shit.
murder Member	Mon Oct 03 22:15:47 Really who could have ever predicted this?
murder Member	Tue Oct 04 01:11:58 Anyway Ukraine is still smacking Russian forces everywhere where they actually stand and fight. Right now Russian forces seem to be retreating pretty much anywhere they are challenged.
jergul large member	Tue Oct 04 02:11:28 Ukraine has been pushing at least in probe strength almost everywhere. A general offensive before the mud sets in and Russia begins deploying forces released by legislative change. On the whole, Russia seems to have avoided deploying mustering forces piecemeal and is trading ground for time.
murder Member	Tue Oct 04 02:18:31 Maybe we can speed this up. They can give up all the ground and keep all the time. ;o)
Habebe Member	Tue Oct 04 02:24:25 All while shipping out shit loads of grain to the ME. Me thinks that will be more important than the news is covering it at the moment.
jergul large member	Tue Oct 04 02:38:52 Ukraine has not actually established the grain has been expropriated without compensation. Frankly, what was Russia as an occupying power supposed to do? Have the grain rot in the fields?
jergul large member	Tue Oct 04 02:40:07 There are way too many 20-somethings generating meme quality propaganda in Kiev. Though I get that it beats frontline service :D.
jergul large member	Tue Oct 04 07:13:24 120k conscripts for november. 7500 less than a year ago. Going to units not fighting in Ukraine. 127500 concripts from fall 2021 are being released and put into the reserves. For some, this will work out to a few weeks furlough before being mobilized, given contracts and sent to brigades and divisions earmarked Ukraine. 3000 Kadyrovs have arrived and are settling into positions in the SE. They are well equipped and well trained. We now know how Russia plans to organize this. It can realistically put in 100k freshly trained troops every 6 months It still means that Russian units will be understrength for another 6 months Tank division now (BTGish) -> soon (of full strength in 6 months) 2 -> 4 (of 7) tank battalions 1 -> 3 (5) mounted infantry bat 2 -> 4 (6) recon coy 1 -> 3 (5) spg bat 2 -> 4 (6) SAM bat It denotes the end of the Battalion Tactical Groups as an organizational form.
murder Member	Tue Oct 04 08:00:41 "We now know how Russia plans to organize this. It can realistically put in 100k freshly trained troops every 6 months" I don't know where they are going to put them because at the current rate they are going to get dog walked right out of Ukraine in a matter of months.
jergul large member	Tue Oct 04 08:20:32 This had definitely been a good month for Ukraine. Look at the bright side. Russia was finally forced to partially mobilize. There is however a downside. Russia has finally partially mobilized. But there is a silver lining. Russian tactical nukes are most likely redundant. Nukes or partially mobilize seemed to be a binary choice.
Seb Member	Tue Oct 04 08:37:15 I think we need to do a "downfall bunker" video with excerpts of jergul's posts as the text.
jergul large member	Tue Oct 04 08:54:32 Seb We could more easily do it with yours. Ukraine is winning only if you accept the Russian borders that show Ukraine deep within Russian territory. Otherwise, it remains Russia who is deeply within Ukraine's lands.
jergul large member	Tue Oct 04 08:55:49 For reference, the Germans advanced 75 km deep during the battle of the Bulge :).
Seb Member	Tue Oct 04 09:00:51 So... under your definition, when Ukraine is back at its borders, that's a dead heat? Sounds like the people who claim the US won Vietnam. See what I mean about zero sum thinking.
Habebe Member	Tue Oct 04 09:12:17 Seb, I mean, Considering Russia is claiming chunks of the Ukraine it really wouldn't be zero sum. And lets face it, Russia pays to had the region's (donbas and whatever) plus Crimea. So Ukraine at its borders would clearly be the Ukraine up a bit. Jergul, Now do the important math, the expense. That tracker isn't as conclusive as I thought. NYT was more thorough and had it at $54 Billion in May (US).
Habebe Member	Tue Oct 04 09:13:01 Pays= has had.
jergul large member	Tue Oct 04 09:29:33 Seb Ukraine will be way down if fighting reaches the Russian frontier. Ukraine figures on infrastructure damages at about 100 billion a month. Noth Vietnam won the Vietnam war and spent 40 years trying to recover from that victory. I doubt it ever would have recovered with refugee policies similar to what Ukraine enjoys. Point is, you have to view Ukrainian advances in context. It is far from regaining the territory it lost and god only knows who much of its stuff it just burned through. Successful, sure. But at a price. Basically all-out offensive to grab land before everything turns to mud and the Russian force build-up becomes manifest.
jergul large member	Tue Oct 04 09:31:01 habebe Excess energy prices will cost the EU about 500 billion in 2023. Direct and indirect costs of the conflict are already in the single digit trillions for Ukraine and the West.
jergul large member	Tue Oct 04 09:31:13 in 2022*
Habebe Member	Tue Oct 04 09:33:45 The US really needs to partially nationalize Natural gas to offset costs. Maybe a windfall tax, fucking something.
Habebe Member	Tue Oct 04 09:39:41 I know Euros tend to get upset when Usians bitch about cost everything, but our politicians love spending our money everywhere else but here. When we see nations that offer free HC, schooling etc. Pay a fraction of costs for something in their back yard while we are told we cant afford such things but we can afford to fund some war in a country Ill never see, yeah, we get a little salty. And Sebs tries to explain what a bargain it is.....hogwash.
murder Member	Tue Oct 04 12:33:49 Special Kherson Cat @bayraktar_1love ANTONOVSKY BRIDGE /25 No one likes Antonovsky bridge New strikes on the bridge ~ 16:45 local time http://twi...33184?cxt=HHwWgIC8pf-a4eMrAAAA
jergul large member	Tue Oct 04 12:38:01 Through cannonball fire, but the bridge was still there. Oh say can you see... ;D
murder Member	Tue Oct 04 12:38:20 "When we see nations that offer free HC, schooling etc. Pay a fraction of costs for something in their back yard while we are told we cant afford such things but we can afford to fund some war in a country Ill never see, yeah, we get a little salty." Talk to your party. We absolutely can afford healthcare and such. Republicans just don't want to.
murder Member	Tue Oct 04 12:48:00 That bridge is swiss cheese ... and not just from today. From Sept 24th ... http://twitter.com/2uwmp/status/1573553465401409540 I mean the Russians can use it if they want to.
Sam Adams Member	Tue Oct 04 12:50:48 Seeing a lot of photos of burnt out russian t62s lately. Rofl What are these 300k recruits going to use if the russian dictatorship cant even properly suply the current crop?
Habebe Member	Tue Oct 04 12:51:59 Murder, Your party controls the entire federal government.
jergul large member	Tue Oct 04 12:52:06 By a lot, you mean 2?
jergul large member	Tue Oct 04 12:54:45 Murder you see the problem right there. Himars cannot damage the structural supports. Punching holes in it just means you have to keep punching holes in it for a couple hundred k per hit.
murder Member	Tue Oct 04 13:46:22 I wouldn't expect any heavy equipment to try to cross that bridge.
murder Member	Tue Oct 04 13:53:15 A few trucks tried to make it through a couple of days ago which I assume is why it got hit again. http://twi...ove/status/1576587129618329601 It's really not advisable.
jergul large member	Tue Oct 04 14:01:04 In Norway, we still use sheets of plate armor cut out from the Tirpitz to cover underground pipe repairs. http://www...er-ligger-tirpitz-70-aar-etter
Sam Adams Member	Tue Oct 04 14:44:53 Thanks england for saving you from Tirpitz
Sam Adams Member	Tue Oct 04 14:53:25 Anyway i see a lot fewer propaganda posts from pillz. Whats the matter? Havent destroyed 514 ukrainian soldiers, 14 units of military vehicles, and 4 unicorns lately? Lol Maybe the lies are obvious even to your lesser intellect now that the ukraine is breaking through russian lines all over?
nhill Member	Tue Oct 04 14:57:44 He's busy doxxing swordtail as escapism from Russia's decline ;)
jergul large member	Tue Oct 04 15:05:09 Sammy Tirpitz was moored 5 km from where I am sitting. The bombing raids to get it after it moved to Tromsø was a bigger inconvenience than a crippled battleship repurposed as a stationary battery. War was almost over anyway (nov-44). How cool would it have been to take it as a prize after the war and refitted it? Norway with a major surface combatant :D.
Sam Adams Member	Tue Oct 04 15:34:22 Does seem like a waste of a fine ship. Though its ultimate fate would have been towed to bikini and nuked had it survived the brits.
Pillz Member	Tue Oct 04 17:01:07 Other than the fall of Lyman there hasn't been very much to post. AFU armour continues to go up in smoke at an alarming rate. Seems like the Lyman offensive was costly. I'm waiting for Russian troop surge, I doubt anything will happen any time soon.
Habebe Member	Tue Oct 04 17:07:07 I think Ukraine took some other city this morning. They do have momentum on their side at the moment. But they are also a bunch of assholes who see the world suffer for a scrap of land only they care about. Their cocky hubris may be their downfall.
murder Member	Tue Oct 04 17:18:34 "AFU armour continues to go up in smoke at an alarming rate. Seems like the Lyman offensive was costly." You keep saying this but Ukraine keeps advancing. Something there shouldn't add up for you.
jergul large member	Tue Oct 04 17:44:57 A force can lose a lot of armored vehicles, but still maintain momentum for a while. See Russia in Feb/March for details. Not really such a bad idea. It speeds up the point in time where Germany has to ok the re-export of Leopards, or the US has to start supplying Abrams M1A1s from storage depots.
jergul large member	Tue Oct 04 17:47:18 Sammy Tirpitz would have missed Bikini. The type of damage would take a long time to repair and precludes towing to the other side of the world (its bow was pretty much blown off. Germany just filled the front of the vessel with concrete and called it a day).
jergul large member	Tue Oct 04 17:56:55 Habebe Too bad about Kosovo though. Turns out you can just unilaterally declare independence, then hang around as countries in the world slowly decide to recognize you. 100 countries currently do, though 15 have withdrawn their recognition. Blatant hypocracy is always a big Western problem.
jergul large member	Tue Oct 04 17:58:44 The provinces Russia annexed first declared independence, then asked to join Russia. The referenda question was formulated to reflect that in the two provinces that had not yet declared independence.
Habebe Member	Tue Oct 04 18:12:04 Jergul, I have a hunch governments around the world are about to start recognizing the Maduro government. They just released 5 American oil executives after 5 years in jail. Gas is over $5 a gallon, I smell a legitimate government from thousands of miles away.
Habebe Member	Tue Oct 04 18:13:45 We may even start seeing fluff pieces in our totally not propaganda media about how Venezuela and Maduro are good actually and very much capitalist.
jergul large member	Tue Oct 04 18:27:54 Interesting. "On 8 October 2008, the UN General Assembly voted to refer Kosovo's independence declaration to the International Court of Justice; 77 countries voted in favour, 6 against and 74 abstained. The ICJ was asked to give an advisory opinion on the legality of Kosovo's declaration of independence from Serbia in February.[36] The court delivered its advisory opinion on 22 July 2010; by a vote of 10 to 4, it declared that "the declaration of independence of the 17th of February 2008 did not violate general international law because international law contains no 'prohibition on declarations of independence'" Turns out declaring independence does not violate international law. Interesting. I did not know that. Kosovo did not have a referendum in 2008 either, so those are obviously not needed and are just advisory. The things we learn. Now, when Seb gets up, we can hear about how Kosovo is an exception due to several years of violence and an inability to reach concensus. Very different from Ukraine and donbas 2014-2021 when there was no violence and lots of consensus. I am just illustrating the hypocracy btw. My position on Ukraine has not changed :).
jergul large member	Tue Oct 04 18:33:01 Dissolution of larger entity (check) Violence over a long period (check) Nato/Russian intervention respectively (check) Failure to reach concensus (check) Unilateral declarations of independence (check) Requests to join Nato/Russia (check) Hmm. Funny how extremely different those situations must be given our response to those obviously completely different things.
murder Member	Tue Oct 04 18:40:38 "Blatant hypocracy is always a big Western problem." Maybe factor in genocide.
jergul large member	Tue Oct 04 18:48:51 10k civilians and 3.5k military is pretty much a normal ratio. Or did you mean factor in cries of "genocide"?
Habebe Member	Tue Oct 04 18:57:31 http://youtu.be/ieaS3jvZS9Q March 7th, Zelensky seemed open to negotiating around Musks terms. He didn't say refferendums but he spoke of talking and figuring out a way of what to do with Ukrainians who want to stay in Ukraine in those areas. Now it's a "Russian talking point".
Rugian Member	Tue Oct 04 18:58:41 "The things we learn. Now, when Seb gets up, we can hear about how Kosovo is an exception due to several years of violence and an inability to reach concensus. Very different from Ukraine and donbas 2014-2021 when there was no violence and lots of consensus." When you're right you're right. The West's actions on Kosovo were a complete clusterfuck, and a major reason why any sort of post-Cold War "rules-based international order" was doomed to fail (if the West can't obey their own rules, then why should Russia have to?)
jergul large member	Tue Oct 04 19:00:22 Habebe Musk is going for leverage. Can Ukraine even fight without twitter?
Habebe Member	Tue Oct 04 19:08:00 Jergul, He won't pull starlink, but it clearly has been an invaluable asset. Twitter too for that matter.
Habebe Member	Tue Oct 04 19:08:47 There are more Ukrainian flags on Twitter than anywhere in the world.
Pillz Member	Tue Oct 04 19:12:04 I have another 16h night But Ukraine is getting lit up across the board
jergul large member	Tue Oct 04 19:13:09 He might start charging for starlink and twitter though. I was more thinking Ukrainians might work themselves into a boycott twitter move.
murder Member	Tue Oct 04 19:16:31 "He might start charging for starlink and twitter though." He already charges for starlink.
jergul large member	Tue Oct 04 19:19:18 Not for Ukraine.
murder Member	Tue Oct 04 19:22:47 No he charges US taxpayers for that.
Habebe Member	Tue Oct 04 19:56:35 Starlink had previous contracts with starlink. As I understand it the US paid some, $80 million he donated. Its crazy how Murder loves giving the Ukraine an unlimited line of cresit, but hates that Musk only donated $80 million and was reimbursed for some costs.
murder Member	Tue Oct 04 20:03:31 Musk didn't give shit.
Seb Member	Wed Oct 05 03:47:48 "Oh no, however can we tell the difference between a bloody civil war and an act of blatant colonial aggression"
Seb Member	Wed Oct 05 03:49:23 "They are the same and indistinguishable in law and phenomenology - confound it"
Seb Member	Wed Oct 05 04:08:19 Rugian: Counterpoint: it was the Russian's that fucked Kosovo. There is a tension in the post WWII system between the stated aims regarding human rights and international law, and realpolitik. The end of the cold-war - an ideology based conflict between Russia and the US - ought to have meant the demise of realpolitik. Institutionally, Russia has never let go of it's idea of a sphere-of-influence which shorn of the ideological buttressing of there being two competing models for the global economy and national/international governance amounts to "Wait, the UN is about guaranteeing Russia an empire". It isn't. The UN post war system was always specifically about dismantling empire. What happened in Kosovo is how such conflicts are supposed to be managed - through democracy and diplomacy first, but military intervention by the Security Council when it descends into crimes against humanity and regional destabilisation. It is in fact Russia that undermined the system by systematically blocking the system from addressing these threats to global security and human rights in an attempt to build a coalition of allies that would help Russia continue to perpetuate it's idea of a European sphere of interest for Russia - culminating in this current war. The idea that if only the west had not intervened in Kosovo, this war would not be happening is bollocks. Had Serbia been able to hold onto Kosovo by ethnic cleansing - that would only have validated and provided precedent for Russia's desire to do the same (cf. Chechnya) in what it considered it's near abroad. And yes, it is a matter of hypocrisy that the US has not used the US system to reign in its allies like Israel and Saudi Arabia. We should be.
jergul large member	Wed Oct 05 04:24:26 Do you see your massive hypocracy Seb, or are you blind to it?
jergul large member	Wed Oct 05 04:27:46 The idea is incidentally that Kosovo established that regions can inilaterally declare independence without it being contrary to international law, that referanda are irrelevant to that process, and that such a country can then choose its own path as it slowly awaits international recognition.
Habebe Member	Wed Oct 05 04:33:54 "Do you see your massive hypocracy Seb, or are you blind to it?" Have you ever known Sen to admit he was wrong? Ive met walls that are less stubborn.
Seb Member	Wed Oct 05 05:05:25 jergul: Big difference from regions declaring independence, and "little green men". The evolution of the Kosovo crisis is very different. Western involvement started through the UNSC resolution 1199 after the displacement by the Serbian forces of 250,000 civilians by the Serbian forces who were trying to ethnically cleanse the place. There was no declaration of independence by the Kosovan govt prior to that (and indeed the KLA was considered a terrorist organisation). Trying to disguise a land grab as equivalent by sending your armed forces in with proxies (and then stupidly boasting about it afterwards) to stage manage all of this is geopolitical trolling that should not be fed.
murder Member	Wed Oct 05 06:08:38 I can't believe that we're even having this ridiculous discussion. Kosovo gained recognition because handing the Jews back to the Nazis just seemed like a really bad idea. Let me first begin by saying that I think intervening in Kosovo was a bad idea, not because it divided Serbia or butthurt Russia, but because fuck muslims, and fuck terrorist affiliated muslims even more. But it is asinine to pretend that Kosovo would be independent today absent Serbia's policy of genocide. There is no equivalence between Ukraine's eastern oblasts and Kosovo. Ukraine is trying to regain control of it's territory and put down armed militias ... and Russian soldiers pretending that they aren't. Serbia was engaged in a policy of ridding its land of an undesirable part of its population. The only similarity is that Ukraine is going to be forced to do the same because as long as ethnic Russians are inside the borders of Ukraine, Ukraine is at risk of Russian invasion. Blame Russia.
jergul large member	Wed Oct 05 07:02:13 Seb There is no UNSC resolutions authorizing Nato attacks on Serbia and there is no UNSC resolutions authorizing Russian attacks on Ukraine. Both attacks set the conditions for declarations in independence in the breakaway territories of Kosovo, Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporgumdigum. It has been established by international courts that declaring independence is not contrary to international law, just as requesting to join other entities is firmly a firmly established principle (most later US states requested statehood in the US federation to name but one of many examples). Murder The number of donbas civilians killed before 2022 surpasses those killed in Kosovo. International courts did not find that genocide had been commited in Kosovo. And more Donbas residents fled to Russia before 2022 than fled Kosovo. Claims of genocide are less true than Ukrainian forces active in Donbas before 2022 had a high number of national sosialists in the military groups active there. ============= What is the problem with just admitting that Kosovo did indeed create the most unfortunate of precedents?
jergul large member	Wed Oct 05 07:04:32 Would it surprise anyone to learn I was against Nato attacks in the 90s? Consistency is indeed king :).
murder Member	Wed Oct 05 07:12:29 "The number of donbas civilians killed before 2022 surpasses those killed in Kosovo." First of all I don't know that to be true. But it doesn't matter. There was no policy to rid donbas or any other place of ethnic Russians. "International courts did not find that genocide had been commited in Kosovo." But it did. "And more Donbas residents fled to Russia before 2022 than fled Kosovo." More Ukrainians have fled Ukraine ... something that you have highlighted with what seemed like glee ... so I guess we can conclude that Russia is conducting a genocidal war. "Claims of genocide are less true than Ukrainian forces active in Donbas before 2022 had a high number of national sosialists in the military groups active there." I don't care if every single member of the Ukraine armed forces is a Nazis and engages in Auschwitz themed orgies. It is not illegal to be a Nazi, so again that is irrelevant. No amount of mental gymnastics are going to alter the facts of this war or the actions of the Serbs in Kosovo and elsewhere.
murder Member	Wed Oct 05 07:15:50 "What is the problem with just admitting that Kosovo did indeed create the most unfortunate of precedents?" Well for starters because it didn't. What did was allowing the Soviets to control all of eastern Europe at the end of the second world war. If we had chased the Soviets back across their own borders, a lot of bad shit could have been avoided these past 75+ years. No doubt to be replaced with other bad shit, but still.
Seb Member	Wed Oct 05 07:17:48 jergul: Trust you to zero in on the procedure rather than substantive. Yes, we know the procedures were not followed - my entire point is that it is Russia (and the useful idiots like yourself that follow in the wake) that have decided that the point of the UN system is not to never again allow the crimes of the NAZIs to be repeated, but actually to guarantee the right for those crimes to be perpetrated provided they are done strictly and only within the national borders of the country doing it.
Seb Member	Wed Oct 05 07:19:20 And if we don't follow those procedures "oh no, how ever can we tell the difference between Serbia being prevented from committing genocide against the Kosovans and Putin invading Ukraine! He's taken the cap badges of his soldiers and they all claim to be Russian speaking Ukranian patriots! Alas, no!"
jergul large member	Wed Oct 05 07:21:00 Murder It did not. There were trials. 3 people got 22 year sentences. None were convicted of genocide. You trouble is that exactly zero mental gymnastics are required. Kosovo set a horrible precedent that seriously questions if break away republics declarations of independence and subsequent voluntary annexation are contrary to international law. Advisory referenda were indeed fatally flawed, but rather besides the point. Kosovo also establish referenda are by no means required for declarations of independence. That the Nato and Russian attacks are by definition illegal does not matter even if they were both crucial in forming facts on the ground to allow independence to take place.
jergul large member	Wed Oct 05 07:25:44 Seb Not abiding by Westphalian principle simply provides the legal framework for anyone to peel away territories from nation-states. Kosovo became independent. Yay. But then, so did Donetsk, Luhansk, Crimea, Kherson and Zaporwhatever.
jergul large member	Wed Oct 05 07:27:11 http://en....vo_declaration_of_independence At least Spain has the luxery of being consistent.
Seb Member	Wed Oct 05 07:45:17 jergul: "simply provides the legal framework for anyone to peel away territories from nation-states." No it doesn't. That is a false binary choice you are making. Serbia sought to create facts on the ground, and the conflict they ignited is what led to Kosovan independence (though Kosovo was demanding politically to be an independent nation within Yougoslavia since before I was born). The lesson here should be "do not try to resolve ethnic tensions with violence or bad shit happens that eventually forces the neighbours to step in". Your argument is "no, just let ethnic majorities exterminate the minorities, it is our only viable choice, the 17th century was rosy." This is mad, bad, and nobody should have anything to do with it.
jergul large member	Wed Oct 05 07:50:50 Ultimately, recognition comes by countries recognizing the change in status. For Russia, that recognition is implicit. Who has broken off diplomatic relations with Russia after the annexation? The sanction regime was already so tight that punitive measures are limited to avoiding excessive self-harm. There is no room for tightening the regime. Weapon supplies to Ukraine are also curtailed by self-interests. What can be sent without seriously impacting on military readiness has already been sent. Conversely, lets pretend Russia decided to reverse the annexation. Who thinks sanction relief and a cutback on supplies to Ukraine are an appropriate response to such a de-escalatory move? *crickets*, right?
jergul large member	Wed Oct 05 07:55:26 Seb What is false about breakaway territories declaring independence ruled to be not contrary to international law? Lots of legal experts warned this would come back to bite us in the ass in 2010 when it happened. The ruling was 6-4, so even the judges had serious misgivings at the time. Shouting genocide is as valid as shouting neo-nazis in terms of justifying an attack. Did not happen and you and Russia both are equal in not having a UNSC resolution behind your respective attacks, so they are illegal by definition. Show some humility and consistency.. Admit Kosovo was wrong and in particular, its declaration of independence was wrong.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Wed Oct 05 07:55:40 >>Seb Member Tue Oct 04 08:37:15 I think we need to do a "downfall bunker" video with excerpts of jergul's posts as the text.<< *cough* http://www.captiongenerator.com/make-a-hitler-reacts-video
jergul large member	Wed Oct 05 08:02:31 At least get the timing right. Say as the BEF started pushing North in 1940 into Belgium to liberate Dutch and Belgian territory the German had just captured :D.
Seb Member	Wed Oct 05 09:07:08 jergul: "Who thinks sanction relief and a cutback on supplies to Ukraine are an appropriate response to such a de-escalatory move?" If they got out of Ukraine completely, sure. But to try and freeze the conflict? No way. Russia has been nibbling at the edges of the European security system pretty much continually since the end of the Cold war because its interpretation of the end of the cold war has oscillated between: "Cool, we are no longer in ideological rivalry, so there is no basis for America or Western Europe to oppose us having an Eastern European empire anymore" to "The fact you won't let us act like Eastern European is our empire means you hate us and want to destroy us". "What is false about breakaway territories declaring independence ruled to be not contrary to international law?" The fact that the breakaway wasn't conducted in a structured, political fashion but by an invasion by a bunch of Russian military and mercenaries - which Putin has even admitted to. You are the last person standing it seems that wants to try and pretend that what happened in Crimea, DNR and LNR was regions declaring self determination, not an invasion. "Shouting genocide is as valid as shouting neo-nazis in terms of justifying an attack." No it is definitely not. http://en....incinerated%20before%20burial.
Seb Member	Wed Oct 05 09:17:58 Oh I am sorry jergul, it was Crimes Against Humanity , not Genocide. His genocide indictment was Bosnia. Of course, the reason he wasn't charged with Genocide in the case of Kosovo is that they didn't have the evidence to substantiate the mens rea as they did in Bosnia.
murder Member	Wed Oct 05 09:41:56 "Conversely, lets pretend Russia decided to reverse the annexation. Who thinks sanction relief and a cutback on supplies to Ukraine are an appropriate response to such a de-escalatory move?" There is one and only one de-escalatory move, and that Russia getting the fuck out of its neighbors yard.
jergul large member	Wed Oct 05 09:48:39 Seb So absolutely no reason for Russia to reverse the annexations, we agree? Nato has certainly been nibbling at the edges of the Russian security system pretty much continually since the end of the Cold war. Russia has been quite helpful at times. Most notably for not blocking the Libyan intervention. The international courts made no distinction on the form of independence declarations, but simply noted doing so was not contrary to international law. Oh, Russia definitely attacked Ukraine and shaped conditions on the ground that made declarations of independence possible. But then, so did Nato in the case of Kosovo. Crimes against humanity is just a blanket name for a group of crimes. It sounds very omnious if left undefined. "including murder, forcible population transfer, deportation and "persecution on political, racial or religious grounds" For what 3 people were actually convicted of. The actual ruling for Bosnia: "On 26 February 2007, however, in the Bosnian genocide case, the United Nations International Court of Justice (ICJ) found that there was no evidence linking Serbia under the rule of Milošević to genocide committed by Bosnian Serbs in the Bosnian War. However, the court did find that Milošević and others in Serbia did not do enough to prevent acts of genocide from occurring in Srebrenica.[29] On 22 November 2017, an International court in The Hague found General Ratko Mladić guilty of one count of genocide, five counts of crimes against humanity and four counts of violations of the laws or customs of war. He was found not guilty of one count of genocide and sentenced to life imprisonment." For Sbrenica where 8k killed.
jergul large member	Wed Oct 05 09:51:55 Ultimately, its crap like kosovo that sort of limits global enthusiasm for Ukraine. Self-serving and arbitrary application of international law might feel good for the golden billion, but the rest of the planet does not really buy it.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Wed Oct 05 10:31:43 It's been more than 2 hours and still no Hitler reaction video. You guys are just not very serious about this.
Seb Member	Wed Oct 05 10:50:11 jergul: "So absolutely no reason for Russia to reverse the annexations, we agree?" Russia's annexation decree is utterly irrelevant in and of itself. It is merely part of Putin's stage management of domestic politics and legal system. The only thing that matters externally is withdrawal from all areas taken since 2008. If they do that, then yes, we should reduce sanctions. We should not be providing rewards for something that has no relevance. It lets Russia create arbitrary "de-escalatory" steps that have no practical consequences on the ground and exist entirely within the borderline fictional construct of Russias domestic legal system, and secure rewards for it. That is madness. By all means you can focus on whether or not Russia has formally annexed the territories or not. What matters is Russian forces out of the territory. " at the edges of the Russian security system " Only because Russian security system is predicated on the idea of having an imperial periphery. "Oh, Russia definitely attacked Ukraine and shaped conditions on the ground that made declarations of independence possible." Russia precipitated the crisis in Ukraine (to a great degree, fabricated it) to justify creating a client state, and then later annexation. It did not intervene to try and resolve it. Serbia precipitated the crisis in Kosovo. NATO intervened to resolve it. The problem is not "unilateral declaration of independence" which only came well after facts on the ground that were created by the war that Serbia unleashed. Ukraine should be allowed the chance to re-establish itself through a political process. The unilateral declarations by Russian proxies installed and maintained by Russian forces should not be regarded as an established fact. Self serving and arbitrary application of international law is exactly what Russia has been doing all along. The only reason there was not a UN mandate for the intervention in Kosovo was because Russia said it would veto it because Milosovec was a Russian ally. The UNSC has a specific mandate to intervene in situations like Kosovo. The limits of Russia's ability to impose realpolitik over international law depends on its power. We are seeing now it is powerless.
jergul large member	Wed Oct 05 11:28:38 Seb On the contrary. The annexation triggers all kinds of legal obligations and will cost Russia a pretty mint. Since 2008? Are you tacking on breakaway regions that have declared independence elsewhere too? Russia has formally annexed the territories on their request after they had declared independence. Nato is indeed a US imperial periphery to use your terms. The crisis in Ukraine was precipitated by the Maidan revolution that lacked regional support in the East. Kosovo actually started with seperatists attacking Serbian security forces. "The KLA formed in the early 1990s to fight against Serbian persecution of Kosovo Albanians.[51] The KLA initiated its first campaign in 1995 when it launched attacks against Serbian law enforcement in Kosovo. In June 1996, the group claimed responsibility for acts of sabotage targeting Kosovo police stations, during the Kosovo Insurgency." Wiki. Nato attacked Serbia. Russia attacked Ukraine. Neither had an UNSC resolution sanctioning the attacks, so both are illegal. Not hard concepts to understand. And since then, Kosovo, South Ossetia, Abkhasia, Crimea, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporpffta have declared independence. Some of them have also asked and were granted joining Russia. You could just admit Kosovo was a huge mistake you know. You know, to have a consistent framework to operate under. It is way easier for me to hold a consisten position over time as I dont base it on if I like the people that are attacking or not.
Seb Member	Wed Oct 05 13:11:10 jergul: "On the contrary. The annexation triggers all kinds of legal obligations" Only inside Russia. The rest of the world does not recognise them referendums, so there is no need to bribe Russia to walk them back. Russia trying to figure out how to offer the only meaningful concession (withdraw) within its legal system is an issue for Russia to solve internally, not a thing for us to negotiate. "Nato is indeed a US imperial periphery to use your terms." No it isn't. This is all predicated on the idea that somehow we can't spot the fact that DNR and LNR were the result of a Russian invasion and takeover. "The crisis in Ukraine was precipitated by the Maidan revolution that lacked regional support in the East." That's the Russian cover story, but Putin has helpfully admitted he sent his own forces in from the get go, and these "Russian patriot militas" were actually Spetznatz. You are the only one pretending we can't tell the difference between these and must treat them as equivalent.
Seb Member	Wed Oct 05 13:12:34 The idea that Kosovo opened the door for Russias aggression is a joke. Many of the frozen conflicts predate Kosovo. All it does is provide a basis for useful idiots such as yourself to pedal Russian talking points about false equivalence.
jergul large member	Wed Oct 05 13:21:35 Seb Kosovo showed that advisory referenda are not required for declarations of independence. Why on earth would Russia withdraw from what it considers its own territory? Kosovo was the result of a Nato attack. DNR and Luhansk is the result of a Russian attack. The lack of support for the Maidan revolution is some eastern regions is well established. Ukraine was at a juncture between east and west. Then the revolution/coup happened. They are equivalent sadly. Perhaps you should just admit that Kosovo was a horrible mistake. Kosovo opened the door for regions to declare independence under the cover of armed attacks from outsiders. Why I a useful idiot? I think Nato's attack on Syria and Russia's attack on Ukraine are both travesties. You are the one struggling here seb.
jergul large member	Wed Oct 05 13:21:57 Nato's attack on Serbia rather*
jergul large member	Wed Oct 05 13:24:17 What frozen conflicts predate Kosovo (which began in the early 90s)?
Sam Adams Member	Wed Oct 05 14:57:44 http://mob...arr/status/1577743417089703942 Even russians are starting to understand that their army is a shadow of lies. When was the last time we saw a russian made missile strike beyond the frontlines? Only iranian weapons are used for that these days. The "russian bear net" bomber radio is pretty inactive. Artillery videos from russian propaganda accounts are way down. I think russia is finally running out of ammo. Lol@pillz.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Wed Oct 05 15:03:51 ”What frozen conflicts predate Kosovo” Israel vs all Arab states?
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