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Utopia Talk / Politics / Midterm results #3
habebe
Member
Thu Nov 10 23:00:52
Ask me about my butthole!
McKobb
Member
Thu Nov 10 23:01:53
gay
habebe
Member
Thu Nov 10 23:03:55
McCarthy has already started prepping for investigations.

Now remember though, subpoena power is questionable, only the DOJ can enforce it and it has recently made examples of people (Gannon & Navarro) so we will see if they hold up that standard.
McKobb
Member
Thu Nov 10 23:10:10
what makes you think he will be speaker?
habebe
Member
Thu Nov 10 23:34:42
I didn't get into that can of worms, but I'm just dayong he is giving interviews saying what I posted.

Personally I'm a Massie guy.
Y2A
Member
Thu Nov 10 23:57:08
You will be REPLACED.

http://en....ylvania_gubernatorial_election
tumbleweed
the wanderer
Fri Nov 11 18:35:46
current standings

House:
- 211 R to 200 D (called as of now)
- 221 R to 214 D (the future, if no lead changes)

Senate, still 3 seats in solid doubt, whoever gets 2 takes it (the D's look like they'll get it to me)
habebe
Member
Fri Nov 11 18:42:04
8 pm drop of AZ ballots, but TBH That may be AZ time so That's like 11-12

Maloney called, he lost his seat, which is part of the strong GOP results localized to NY.

It was his job to win Democrat house seats nationwide. He jumped out of a +5 D seat to a +10 and STILL lost.
tumbleweed
the wanderer
Fri Nov 11 18:42:38
i still assume Kari Lake will win Gov in AZ... but hopefully not the Jan 6er Sec of State candidate (Finchem)

Trump failed to get his traitors into Gov/Secs of State of PA, GA, WI, & MI so that's nice
habebe
Member
Fri Nov 11 19:04:33
TW, I dont think it will matter if that independent state legislature case prevails it will be up the state congress, no?

Nevada is projected* as a GOP win/flip.

Lake should win, IDK if it's enough to bring up Masters or not since he is down over 4% last I checked.
tumbleweed
the wanderer
Fri Nov 11 21:45:57
“Nevada is projected* as a GOP win/flip”

by whom?

CNN -has- projected Kelly (D) for AZ so 49-49
jergul
large member
Fri Nov 11 21:48:38
What are tht two remaining. Georgia (of course) and?
tumbleweed
the wanderer
Fri Nov 11 21:50:41
Nevada
tumbleweed
the wanderer
Fri Nov 11 21:52:46
pretty sure a lot of Vegas votes are still out there that could put the D on top

...and no cheating is ever suspected in Vegas
murder
Member
Fri Nov 11 23:05:49

Cortes Masto (D) is trailing by fewer than 900 votes in Nevada.


murder
Member
Sat Nov 12 00:02:04

"Ask me about my butthole!"

Every time I open this thread and read that I think of Aeros. :o)

habebe
Member
Sat Nov 12 00:48:49
TW, Sorry for the confusion, Lombardo (R) was called for Governor* of Nevada, thats the flip.

I forget where I seen it tho.
tumbleweed
the wanderer
Sat Nov 12 00:56:20
yeah, the (D)Gov conceded, he was losing 47% to 49% or something

he had lots of COVID governing baggage, so a possible reason the Senate candidate doing a bit better & possibly able to win
habebe
Member
Sat Nov 12 01:05:40
Masters lost, Laxalt holds on by 1k votes at 95%.

If Kari Lake doesn't win the election won't be viewed as legitimate.

Too many shenanigans already.

The rest are seen as tight but oh well.

Now there is fraud and then there is gaming the system. Do you check for signatures for only one side? Do you crash the cameras for hours?

I got $100 that says voters will flip shit if Hobbs is declared a winner.
Y2A
Member
Sat Nov 12 01:58:46
masto is less than 1k votes away, they might not even need GA
habebe
Member
Sat Nov 12 02:33:25
Yeah, it's extremely possible we are exactly where we started.
murder
Member
Sat Nov 12 15:51:09

"Now there is fraud and then there is gaming the system. Do you check for signatures for only one side? Do you crash the cameras for hours?"

There are Republicans on the scene throughout the process.

Dukhat
Member
Sat Nov 12 15:58:52
Maestro will win. Outstanding ballots are way too dem.
murder
Member
Sat Nov 12 16:03:54

We should have a good idea when they put out the latest numbers tonight.

tumbleweed
the wanderer
Sat Nov 12 19:01:44
D's have flipped another seat where the R incumbent was chased off for impeaching Trump & replaced w/ a MAGA loyalist

(Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D) over Joe Kent (R) in WA)


if the Dems keep the House (still unlikely, but possible) it would be really bad, as would help Trump win 2024 which is the one thing that must not happen
obaminated
Member
Sat Nov 12 19:28:27
Bad take. Trump is being blamed for the poor performance of the GOP. Going after DeSantis was also a bad decision. He is attacking the governor of Florida who won in a huge landslide and maintained a distance from him for the election.
tumbleweed
the wanderer
Sat Nov 12 20:23:00
the piece of garbage regenerates, but yes, please finally dump him

—-

CNN has called NV for the Dems, so they’ll keep Senate regardless of GA runoff
murder
Member
Sat Nov 12 20:23:47

"Going after DeSantis was also a bad decision."

No it wasn't. That outrage was contrived. The Republicans criticizing Trump are going to criticize him no matter what he does or says because they are trying to erode his support.

murder
Member
Sat Nov 12 20:28:28

"CNN has called NV for the Dems, so they’ll keep Senate regardless of GA runoff "

So now the real opponent in Georgia is Joe Manchin. :o)

habebe
Member
Sat Nov 12 20:34:38
TW, Yeah, it was looking less and less likely he would hold on.So we're back to late summer estimates with a narrow house and stagnant Senate.

The blame lays at McConnels feet. Rubio has even come out to question his leadership.

He would rather see Democrats win than Trumpian candidates. McCarthy will likely remain, there isnt an immediate replacement, he has good plans going forward with investigations etc.
tumbleweed
the wanderer
Sat Nov 12 21:36:37
it’s McConnells fault for not impeaching Trump & for the makeup of Supreme Court that knocked out Roe v Wade

(Trump & abortion is why Rs failed)
Y2A
Member
Sat Nov 12 22:36:51
What's cool is that now that the Dems have the Senate, winning the GA seat will be easier for Warnock as the Repubs will be demoralized and the smarter ones will no longer have an excuse to vote for CTE Walker.
murder
Member
Sat Nov 12 22:56:30

Unless Democrats get complacent.

obaminated
Member
Sun Nov 13 00:29:35
Gop will win Georgia and Manchin will again be the make or break vote in the senate.
habebe
Member
Sun Nov 13 01:11:36
"(Trump & abortion is why Rs failed"

I don't think the data supports that.

We do know that early, harvested mail votes were primarily democratic, in states where that was banned (IE FLA) Democrats did poorly.

Trump's home state even, well known in FLA did really well.

Abortion didn't energize Dem base to the polls, it energized them to collect signatures.

Now the data is incomplete, but more and more that's the image that is coming through.

Ironically, Mitch still has a role to play, next month (the 7th?) That NC case goes before the SC, it isnt a sure thing, but it looks VERY promising, Garret/Thomas and my favorite Gorsuch are shoe ins I think.

Roberts is funny. He has a habit of overlooking things he sees as a "technicality". Remember the Wyoming Natives case? Anyway you split it they legally had jurisdiction.

Anyway, the GOP controls 25 state congresses completely and hopefully can model copy Desantis's election reforms around that.
tumbleweed
the wanderer
Sun Nov 13 02:16:12
not sure where you’re getting this harvested/signatures thing, not many States mail a ballot unless you ask for it, and if you ask for it you probably intended to vote
habebe
Member
Sun Nov 13 02:23:32
"not many States mail a ballot unless you ask for it"

10 do. (Some say 9)

35 allow covid as an excuse, which means anything goes.

All places where Dems outperformed are near exclusively via mail in early ballots.

PA for example had over 70% of Fetts votes come in long before his debate.Coincidence?

McKobb
Member
Sun Nov 13 02:25:37
>>PA for example had over 70% of Fetts votes come in long before his debate.Coincidence?

source?
habebe
Member
Sun Nov 13 02:44:55

http://www.electionreturns.pa.gov/



556,750 mail-in and absentee ballots were returned as of October 24.

http://www.inquirer.com/newsletters/pa-senate-race-debate-mail-voting-mehmet-oz-john-fetterman-20221005.html?outputType=amp

The exact amount will difficult to pinpoint, but regardless about 600k+ votes had been cast before the debate. Mailnin ballots favored Fett like 4 to 1, probably greater numbers of early not turned in election day.

Fett won by early mail in votes.

I mean, Im not knocking it, obviously it was a good strategy and Trump's impact of being anti mail in votes but letting mail in voting to thrive was a bad combo.

It's funny you don't see any Democrats complaining about the popular vote this time around either?

That's how bad Republicans did compared to expectations. They won the popular vote so far by abput 5 million and couldn't win the Senate. Nobody expected that.

I mean not winning the Senate, maybe, but the pop vote? Strange.
Dukhat
Member
Sun Nov 13 02:53:38
Habebe makes stuff up way too much. Typical repub. choses a conclusion and then tries to find out-of-contect “facts” to fit it.
habebe
Member
Sun Nov 13 02:58:55
Fett won 70% (73%, I rounded) of early mail votes prior to the debate (Oct. 25th)

Cites are there.

This won him This election. I mean the man is LITERALLY MENTALLY RETARDED. But sure argue itnwas candidate qualiry.
Paramount
Member
Sun Nov 13 03:21:58
” Democrats keep control of the Senate with win in Nevada
The final blow to the GOP’s majority ambitions came Saturday, when Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto was projected to win”

- WaPost


What happened? The republicans were poised to win. Did the democrats cheat again?
habebe
Member
Sun Nov 13 03:32:11
Paramount, Not cheat, as in anything illegal. But different strategy Mixed with built favorability.

GOP actually has won more votes, but in our Republic it really matters WHERE thise votes are cast.Im not knocking that system, I prefer it btw, its usually Dems who cry over the popular vote.

1. 1/3 of the Senate re elects every 2 years. 2016 was a REALLY good year for Republicans whoalready hold like 2/3 of this round of Senators.

2. Democrats KILLED it on early mail in ballots. The GOP deployed a flawed strategy of encouraging election day voting only while allowing Dems several months to vote.

Florida greatly limited early mail in votes and it worked great.

Technically the GOP is still in a more favorable position post election, but expectations were high and the dems outmanuevered them (legally) on when/how to vote.

To stay relevant the GOP needs to limit mail in votes like FLA or encourage early voting themselves.

williamthebastard
Member
Sun Nov 13 04:09:27
I love how theyre all hiding behind "how we marketed our product was why we went bankrupt" instead of the obvious truth: "most people think our product is horrible"
williamthebastard
Member
Sun Nov 13 04:10:47
Everything isnt about surface fluff. Sometimes content still matters.
habebe
Member
Sun Nov 13 04:13:09
William clearly knows nothing oast what he sees on marxist tv.

Explain Florida?
habebe
Member
Sun Nov 13 04:13:44
Or the general discrepancy between in person and early mail votes.
williamthebastard
Member
Sun Nov 13 04:14:54
idiot lol
williamthebastard
Member
Sun Nov 13 04:15:36
But keep selling a product that is going out of style faster than Twitter and blaming it on the packaging.
habebe
Member
Sun Nov 13 04:15:48
Yes, for all the talk of European education your greatest achievement is debating homeless men.
williamthebastard
Member
Sun Nov 13 04:17:03
I dunno, I rather thought that doing work for ISS and having my texts floating around in space right now was cooler, but you pick what you pick
habebe
Member
Sun Nov 13 04:17:27
So William cant explain how there are FAR more GOP politicians in the US than democratic.

Or how the GOP even in these midterms actually won thenpooular vote by millions. But in his slow mind that means more people like democrats.
williamthebastard
Member
Sun Nov 13 04:18:02
Just dont call me a fanboy. This is what happens every time you do that

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w23oPQdnNH8
williamthebastard
Member
Sun Nov 13 04:19:12
You know your arguments are BS before even writing them. Thus, you are not debating, you are anti-debating and I, of course, do not waste time trying to debate anti-debaters.
habebe
Member
Sun Nov 13 04:21:05
Well, what would you call it when your obsessed with Americans way of lives and our politics and we couldn't care less about yours?

Beat around the bush all you want, your obsessed with America.

And you still cant back up your arguments.

Except maybe against homeless men.
habebe
Member
Sun Nov 13 04:23:16
So, deflection.

Wtb "Makes vold claim" , asked to back it up.

"Well, uh, its not a real debate, I cant be bothered,"

So a man who regularly debates the homeless (admitted) doesnt have time to suppoet any of his baseless claims.

Gotcha.
williamthebastard
Member
Sun Nov 13 04:23:29
lol
Dukhat
Member
Sun Nov 13 04:26:43
Republicans use to have a huge early-voting advantage until Trump decided he wanted to try to cheat to win the last election and told Republicans to vote on election day instead and then have his packed courts cancel the early vote.

Habebe's argument is just a stupid extension of that.

If Trump told them to vote early this time, the dems might not have had a mail-in vote lead (which was smaller this time anyways because the pandemic is over).
habebe
Member
Sun Nov 13 04:49:14
Dukhat, It's quite the opposite.

Trump's/GOP insistence on in person one day voting long term is terrible for their chances.

Unless they can pull a FLA and limit mass early mail votes. Which easily lead to the greatest landslide victory of any major state.
habebe
Member
Sun Nov 13 04:49:44
Or step up their own early mail in voting game.

Either way.
williamthebastard
Member
Sun Nov 13 06:48:15
"The problem is, we aren't good enough at conveying our message, thats why our figures are tanking. We need to get better at identifying our target segment and communicating with them about things that matter to them" - Blockbuster Video
Rugian
Member
Sun Nov 13 07:03:09
Habebe doubling down on the stupid I see.

Yes, McConnell didn't help with some of the races. But Trump is the asshole sucked up party donations and then sat on his mountain of cash while his candidates were struggling in the general campaign.

And yes, Trump does get out the vote from his supporters. That pales in comparison to the tens of millions of voters who are absolutely disgusted with his BS and will never vote for him again, even if that means supporting the anti-democratic far-left racist Democratic Party instead.

You want to ditch Mitch, then fine. And yeah, it would be stupid for the GOP to regress to the days of being led by neocon fuckheads; no one wants to see that happen. But Trump needs to fuck off and go away if the GOP wants any chance of avoiding permanent minority status.

habebe
Member
Sun Nov 13 07:11:46
Rugian, Who is in charge of making sure they win the Senate? Mitch.

Who failed because he would rather not support Trump linked candidates?

Explain Murkowski to me. Either way we had votes to get judges through and he spends oodles of cash to not have a more Trumpian candidate.

Im not saying Trump should run in 24, but he sure as fuck could have helped this round to bring out the base.

Mule piss Mitch is too old. Rubio? IDK, he is ok, he definitely isnt my favorite, but leadership isn't about that, its strategy and fundraising.


And I 110% will double down on the Floridian method of banning ballot harvesting and limiting early mail votes.
habebe
Member
Sun Nov 13 07:13:44
My gripe with thr Trump method is he encouraged limited options for GOP, but they did nothing while the Dems pushed voting for months early, one day voting cant compete with that.
Rugian
Member
Sun Nov 13 08:02:14
You need to stop deluding yourself with this fantasy that there was some massive pro-Trump voter base that stayed at home during the midterms. That straight up doesn't exist.


Yes, McConnell shouldn't have wasted resources in Alaska. But some of his decisions were absolutely reasonable. Why would he fund the campaigns of candidates who had explicitly declared that they would oppose him if they won?

But at the end of the day, he did far more than Trump to help the party in the midterms. Trump boosted shitty candidates in the primaries, then did practically nothing to help them in the general. He siphoned off donations to the RNC funding arm by insisting that everyone send money to his PACs instead; then he did fuck all with that money, because he wants to keep it for his own 2024 run. Selfish prick.

Trump didn't care at all about the GOP winning the midterms. He only cared about purging the party of any non-Trump loyalists during the primary season. The difference in both attention given and funds disbursed between the primary and general seasons couldn't be more stark.

He attacked popular GOP figures both before and after the election. He celebrated when non-Trumpist GOP candidates lost the general elections. He insists that the GOP's talking points should focus not on policy or what the party can offer to the country, but solely on how 2020 was a FAKE ELECTION that he rightfully won.

No one outside the diehards is attracted to that message. No one.

So go ahead habebe. Let Trump tear down DeSantis and Youngkin, and boost more shitty idiot candidates whose only qualifications center around their willingness to cry FAKE ELECTION, and run again in 2024. See how well that works out for ya.
habebe
Member
Sun Nov 13 08:15:30
"You need to stop deluding yourself with this fantasy that there was some massive pro-Trump voter base that stayed at home during the midterms. That straight up doesn't exist."

Trump brings out the numbers, he always has. The problem is he inspires massive hate voters as well.

We seen lower than expected turnout by Republicans and higher early mass.votes by dems.

"But some of his decisions were absolutely reasonable. Why would he fund the campaigns of candidates who had explicitly declared that they would oppose him if they won?"

Lets say that is the case, his personal squabbles cost us the Senate. JD Vance won by huge margins despite him, Masters nust barely lost by a few thousand votes, same in Nevada.

"Trump didn't care at all about the GOP winning the midterms. "

Oh, yeah, cant deny that.

"He insists that the GOP's talking points should focus not on policy or what the party can offer to the country, but solely on how 2020 was a FAKE ELECTION that he rightfully won."

We agree this should be abandoned.

Midterms is only about bringing out die-hard base voters.

"So go ahead habebe. Let Trump tear down DeSantis and Youngkin, and boost more shitty idiot candidates whose only qualifications center around their willingness to cry FAKE ELECTION, and run again in 2024. "


Where are you getting this? Because I said Mitch should have funded GENERAL ELECTION candidates that only lost by the tiniest margins, because he didn't like those candidates.

Mitch and his in fighting cost us gaining the Senate.Period.

Want a more centrist? Sure put Rubio in, Mitch did well in the past, but he clearly lost his edge.

Youbgkin, Desantis and Lake are the future nof the party.
Rugian
Member
Sun Nov 13 08:24:26
Habebe

You don't seem to appreciate just how much money McConnell actually spent to try and win the elections.

----

McConnell’s PACs Put Money Where Trump’s Mouth Is

By Marc A. Thiessen
The Washington Post

November 04, 2022

In Pennsylvania, Trump-backed nominee Mehmet Oz was trailing Democrat John Fetterman in every poll. McConnell-aligned PACs swung into action, spending nearly $57 million, which has helped Oz cut Fetterman’s lead to less than one point.

Trump has spent a measly $3.4 million.

In Wisconsin, Sen. Ron Johnson (R) was trailing his Democratic opponent Mandela Barnes in almost every poll in September. McConnell-aligned PACs have spent $24 million helping Johnson reverse his fortunes and open up a four-point lead.

Trump has spent nothing to help one of his most loyal Senate supporters.

McConnell’s first responsibility was to defend territory the GOP already held in these four states. Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Wisconsin were always going to be expensive fights. But the $32 million McConnell’s PACs has had to spend in Ohio to rescue Vance has siphoned critical resources away from efforts to widen the electoral map and flip Democratic seats.

As a result, SLF has had to make difficult choices about where to invest. McConnell’s team decided to devote $38 million to Georgia to help Herschel Walker — whom McConnell also endorsed in the Republican primary — regain a seat that had been previously held by Republicans. (Trump has spent just $3.4 million there.) They invested another $25.5 million in Nevada to help Adam Laxalt, whom McConnell also supported in his primary. (Trump has spent just $1.95 million.) They also invested $16 million early on in New Hampshire to help pro-Trump candidate Don Bolduc unseat vulnerable Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan (Trump has spent nothing), but had to pull out to divert resources to other tight races.

If the Republicans’ Senate candidate in Ohio had a 19-point lead like their gubernatorial candidate, McConnell-aligned PACs would have had another $32 million to spend in places such as Arizona, where Trump’s handpicked nominee Blake Masters is trailing the well-funded and popular Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly. (Trump has spent just $3.6 million there.) But Republicans fell just short in the past two Senate cycles in Arizona, and Georgia and Nevada seemed like more promising investments. They could have stayed in New Hampshire, or supported surprise insurgents such as Tiffany Smiley in deep-blue Washington state, where she’s running an unexpectedly strong race against Democratic incumbent Patty Murray. Bailing out Vance has had a high opportunity cost — forcing McConnell’s team to spend money on defense that could have been spent on offense.

Another difference between Trump and McConnell: McConnell-linked groups have been on the air since August. MAGA Inc. did not even begin booking airtime until October. McConnell was backing Trump’s candidates early, while Trump provided too little, too late.

It’s possible that Tuesday will see a red wave so powerful that it will sweep all these Republicans into office. But if Republicans fall short, it will be because Trump chose weak candidates who needed massive outside support — and then failed to support them. If the GOP does take back the Senate, it will be because McConnell-aligned PACs saved Trump’s nominees — something they should remember when they take their oaths on Jan. 3.

http://www...t-money-where-trumps-mouth-is/
Rugian
Member
Sun Nov 13 08:26:31
God fucking damn it. Ignore above post, see this one:

---

McConnell’s PACs Put Money Where Trump’s Mouth Is

By Marc A. Thiessen
The Washington Post

November 04, 2022

If Republicans take back the Senate next Tuesday, thank Mitch McConnell.

Through his super PAC, the Senate Leadership Fund (SLF), and other affiliated groups, the Republican leader has led an extraordinary, quarter-of-a-billion-dollareffort to rescue struggling Trump-backed Senate candidates — while the former president sits on a $92 million war chest and spends almost none of it.

McConnell-aligned super PACs — including SLF, American Crossroads and Faith & Power PAC — have invested a whopping $238 millionso far in seven key Senate races. How much has Donald Trump spent? He has raised an eye-watering $161 million this election cycle. But his super PAC, Make America Great Again, Inc., has spent a grand total of … $14.8 million on Senate races. To put that in perspective, MAGA Inc.’s total spending across the country is less than McConnell-aligned PACs have spent in any individual race in which they are engaged.

So, while Trump issues Truth Social missives attacking McConnell and his wife, he is quietly depending on the “Old Crow” to bail out the candidates he endorsed — and on whom Senate control now depends.

Take Ohio, where Trump’s endorsement helped J.D. Vance win the Republican nomination for the Senate seat being vacated by Rob Portman (R). After Labor Day, Vance was in deep trouble. His second quarter FEC report showed he had just over $600,000 cash on hand, and significant primary debt. He was statistically tied in a race for a seat that Portman had won by more than 20 points. His Democratic opponent, Rep. Tim Ryan, was driving up Vance’s negatives — and he had no money to respond.

McConnell-affiliated PACs stepped in big time. They spent $32 million supporting Vance, who has managed to raise just $6.9 million on his own — compared with $44 million raised by his opponent. Thanks to McConnell’s help, Vance has eked out a 2.3-point lead in the FiveThirtyEight average — far behind Ohio’s Republican Gov. Mike DeWine, who is leading his Democratic opponent by 19 points and thus requires no massive super PAC bailout.

How much has Trump spent to help Vance? A lousy $2.3 million — a pittance in a state with several expensive media markets. If Vance pulls out a victory, he will have McConnell to thank.

The same is true in North Carolina, where Trump’s endorsement helped Rep. Ted Budd secure the GOP nomination over more mainstream candidates. McConnell-aligned PACs have spent almost $38 million supporting Budd, who holds a 3.2-point lead in the FiveThirtyEight average.

Trump has spent nothing in the Tar Heel state.

In Pennsylvania, Trump-backed nominee Mehmet Oz was trailing Democrat John Fetterman in every poll. McConnell-aligned PACs swung into action, spending nearly $57 million, which has helped Oz cut Fetterman’s lead to less than one point.

Trump has spent a measly $3.4 million.

In Wisconsin, Sen. Ron Johnson (R) was trailing his Democratic opponent Mandela Barnes in almost every poll in September. McConnell-aligned PACs have spent $24 million helping Johnson reverse his fortunes and open up a four-point lead.

Trump has spent nothing to help one of his most loyal Senate supporters.

McConnell’s first responsibility was to defend territory the GOP already held in these four states. Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Wisconsin were always going to be expensive fights. But the $32 million McConnell’s PACs has had to spend in Ohio to rescue Vance has siphoned critical resources away from efforts to widen the electoral map and flip Democratic seats.

As a result, SLF has had to make difficult choices about where to invest. McConnell’s team decided to devote $38 million to Georgia to help Herschel Walker — whom McConnell also endorsed in the Republican primary — regain a seat that had been previously held by Republicans. (Trump has spent just $3.4 million there.) They invested another $25.5 million in Nevada to help Adam Laxalt, whom McConnell also supported in his primary. (Trump has spent just $1.95 million.) They also invested $16 million early on in New Hampshire to help pro-Trump candidate Don Bolduc unseat vulnerable Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan (Trump has spent nothing), but had to pull out to divert resources to other tight races.

If the Republicans’ Senate candidate in Ohio had a 19-point lead like their gubernatorial candidate, McConnell-aligned PACs would have had another $32 million to spend in places such as Arizona, where Trump’s handpicked nominee Blake Masters is trailing the well-funded and popular Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly. (Trump has spent just $3.6 million there.) But Republicans fell just short in the past two Senate cycles in Arizona, and Georgia and Nevada seemed like more promising investments. They could have stayed in New Hampshire, or supported surprise insurgents such as Tiffany Smiley in deep-blue Washington state, where she’s running an unexpectedly strong race against Democratic incumbent Patty Murray. Bailing out Vance has had a high opportunity cost — forcing McConnell’s team to spend money on defense that could have been spent on offense.

Another difference between Trump and McConnell: McConnell-linked groups have been on the air since August. MAGA Inc. did not even begin booking airtime until October. McConnell was backing Trump’s candidates early, while Trump provided too little, too late.

It’s possible that Tuesday will see a red wave so powerful that it will sweep all these Republicans into office. But if Republicans fall short, it will be because Trump chose weak candidates who needed massive outside support — and then failed to support them. If the GOP does take back the Senate, it will be because McConnell-aligned PACs saved Trump’s nominees — something they should remember when they take their oaths on Jan. 3.
habebe
Member
Sun Nov 13 08:38:17
I skimmed it, will read later, my show is about to drop its 100th episode.Theyve put it off for a week and an extra day (ucanbeatvideogames)

For the most part we are not that far off, we agree Trump can't win 2024. Id like to see him as a campaigner, but he is a loose cannon.

I think Desantis is the most electable nationwide candidate, but he will need Kari Lake IMHO.

Desantis can't handle the media like she can. He carefully chooses what media is there and is susceptible to gotcha moments, Lake is a fucking pitbull.

Also,, Masters was picked by Thiel mote than Trump.

That said it's clear Trump is already primarying Desantis and Youngkin, that's the reason for the attacks IMHO.

tumbleweed
the wanderer
Sun Nov 13 12:10:31
hey, Rugian & I are on the same side, it must sicken him :p

Trump also spent some money trying to oust popular R governor Kemp in the primary (w/ donations given to him to 'stop the steal' & biden)

his TV lawyer defended him not spending much of his war chest by saying his real value was the rallies (where he talks about himself & bathes in the admiration & has never stopped doing since 2015... -everything- he does is selfish)
tumbleweed
the wanderer
Sun Nov 13 12:30:20
in fact, one of his many rallies right before election day was in Iowa... no one needed his help there, it was all for his 2024 run... putting his idiot despised face out there as much as possible right before midterm voting
Habebe
Member
Sun Nov 13 12:37:30
He barely did support rallies. He should have blanketed Pennsylbama for OZ.

Hopefully Desantis can come to bat for Walker. The current seat doesn't mean so much, but keeping GA in GOP hands is for thenlonger term.

As far as I can see, both candidates suck, atleast Walker is likeable.
murder
Member
Sun Nov 13 19:40:44

"Hopefully Desantis can come to bat for Walker."

That would be funny. Trump would not handle that well.

Habebe
Member
Sun Nov 13 23:03:40
Rugian, In short I see your problem with Trump is that he is willing to sacrifice the party for his own self gain, your not wrong. But clearly Mitch will do the same.

He spent some money, and lost, Alaska is the very telling case.
tumbleweed
the wanderer
Sun Nov 13 23:24:30
Murkowski will probably win with the ranked choice system given the stench of Trump on Tshibaka

just like Palin torpedoed the House seat
murder
Member
Mon Nov 14 12:03:21

How do these states count so many ballots on election night and then slow to a damn crawl after midnight? Election day was almost a week ago and states are still counting ballots and some aren't nearly close to done.

Habebe
Member
Mon Nov 14 12:17:19
Murder, The prevalance of mail in votes, vote curing and late votes.

CA lets people vote something crazy like a week after the election as long is it post marked early enough.
tumbleweed
the wanderer
Mon Nov 14 12:28:07
signature verification is likely the biggest time sink... also something that needs removed, there can't possibly be consistent judging

identification is needed, just not that method... put the smart people to work inventing a whole new system, where all can easily & securely vote
Habebe
Member
Mon Nov 14 12:53:28
Florida verifies signatures and counted all votes in a day.
tumbleweed
the wanderer
Mon Nov 14 20:26:25
no they didnt, minimally overseas votes would’ve been out still


CNN is calling it for Hobbs over ‘soft focus’ Lake... if Lake hadn’t stupidly attacked John McCain she probably would’ve won
Y2A
Member
Mon Nov 14 20:45:07
Kari Lake goes down....

http://twitter.com/patriottakes/status/1568669416359079938

"they are rapists"

....................../´¯/)
....................,/¯../
.................../..../
............./´¯/'...'/´¯¯`·¸
........../'/.../..../......./¨¯\
........('(...´...´.... ¯~/'...')
.........\.................'...../
..........''...\.......... _.·´
............\..............(
..............\.............\...
Y2A
Member
Mon Nov 14 20:45:31
cunt
Habebe
Member
Mon Nov 14 21:08:57
Yeah, out of all the elections, I'm not convinced lakes election wasnt rigged.

They pulled a Nixon for starters. Theybhave camera's to watch the counting that mysteriously had all 28 of Washoe County just broke at the same time....

Im not saying definitely, but much like Nixon, Im skeptical.
tumbleweed
the wanderer
Mon Nov 14 21:27:22
Washoe County Is Nevada and the cameras weren’t what was providing election security, just bonus ‘entertainment’


the swing-state election denying governor candidates failed, Lake just came closest, Trump is garbage, exit polls had him at 39% approval

plus she called McCain a loser and told his fans to get out at an event days before election, which would’ve been noticed locally in AZ (I hadn’t heard of it til now)... a dumb and pointless move. He was AZ’s senator, and non-cultists don’t hate him.
Habebe
Member
Mon Nov 14 21:28:32
That said, in this environment, I see no good coming from pulling a Trump/Stacey Abrams and fighting it.

Take what wins you got and work with it.

But come on, 28 cameras all broke at the same time?#Nixon-moment.
Habebe
Member
Mon Nov 14 21:29:27
My bad, Nevada. Ok NV seems sketchy.
tumbleweed
the wanderer
Mon Nov 14 21:52:10
they didn't break, it lost internet connection & they weren't the security cameras which worked fine

and Abrams is not comparable to Trump

-----

"Arizonans know BS when they see it."
~ Kari Lake, 24 mins ago

i'm guessing she won't go quietly... she was claiming voter fraud even -before- her primary too ready to Trump it up after that one if she lost (& claims to have evidence but won't show the 'fake news' media)
Habebe
Member
Mon Nov 14 22:04:21
Word on Twitter is Trump is announcing Lake as his running mate for 2024.

I meanbOd be down for an election autopsy and see if there is any shenanigans past the blocking vote extension, but if there isn't good evidence, just drop it, even if it was stolen ust go with what you can prove.
Habebe
Member
Mon Nov 14 22:06:08
I was under the impression the timer still aired on a black screen.

IF* that's true it wasn't the internet connection.
tumbleweed
the wanderer
Mon Nov 14 22:21:53
livestream cams aren't part of the process so doesn't matter what they did


here's what Kari Lake looks like w/o her lens filter (w/ Meghan McCain gloating):
http://twitter.com/MeghanMcCain/status/1592334805550927872
Y2A
Member
Mon Nov 14 22:40:24
so sweet, suck it Rugian:

http://twitter.com/katiehobbs/status/1592343418315079682

Katie Hobbs
@katiehobbs

Governor candidate, AZ

La democracia vale la espera.

Gracias, Arizona.

Me siento honrada y orgullosa de ser su próxima gobernadora.

Translate Tweet
9:27 PM · Nov 14, 2022
·Twitter Web App
Habebe
Member
Mon Nov 14 23:14:57
"livestream cams aren't part of the process so doesn't matter what they did"

Neither are presidential recordings, but it seems odd Nixon has a few minutes missing.


I mean, legit, would it be a bad thing to have as many vote counts filmed as possible?
tumbleweed
the wanderer
Tue Nov 15 00:24:03
not if the workers will get death threats from cultists

plus the cultists & cult leader misrepresent what's being seen, like this photo currently on Trump's social media feed:
http://sta.../original/161fff88a987e96b.jpg
i don't know what's happening, but i'm certain it's not mass fraud in front of tons of people & a camera

Trump also put out that GA 'suitcase' video over & over claiming it showed mass fraud when his own DOJ investigated & repeatedly told him nope, nothing
murder
Member
Tue Nov 15 01:07:04

"if Lake hadn’t stupidly attacked John McCain she probably would’ve won"

Governor, Arizona:

Katie Hobbs (D)
1,267,241
50.4%

Kari Lake (R)
1,247,859
49.6%


Ariz. Attorney General:

Kris Mayes (D)
1,234,664
50.1%

Abraham Hamadeh (R)
1,231,577
49.9%


Ariz. Secretary of State:

Adrian Fontes (D)
1,299,784
52.4%

Mark Finchem (R)
1,178,588
47.6%


Lake has more votes than any other Republican in the state, so I don't think shitting on McCain had anything to do with it. It's possible that demographics have tilted slightly in favor of the Democrats, or Democrats got a higher turnout, or some issue like abortion or Jan 6th convinced a sliver of independents that the GOP is dangerous and voted accordingly.

Y2A
Member
Tue Nov 15 01:26:37
Just keeps getting better when you dig into the races:

guess who won after this primary?

Electoral history
2022 Washington's 3rd congressional district blanket primary results[8]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Marie Gluesenkamp Perez 68,190 31.0
Republican Joe Kent 50,097 22.8
Republican Jaime Herrera Beutler (incumbent) 49,001 22.
tumbleweed
the wanderer
Tue Nov 15 01:54:58
Tulsi Gabbard endorsed Kent, Laxalt, Bolduc, Masters, Dixon & Lake... she’s the kiss of death
Habebe
Member
Tue Nov 15 02:32:38
Murder, 20k votes? Easy answer.

GOP has flawed voting strategy, I think it cost them ALOT.

Dems have MONTHS to vote, often they sign a form and circle a name and someone takes it to a drop box.

GOP almost entirely votes on one day for a few hours. That's a dumb strategy on the GOP end.

They are handicapping themselves while letting Dems pop steroids.

The solution is to limit good use OR if you cant beat them, join them and exploit it to the umpteenth degree.

Go to Wal-Mart's, churches, local football games,Trump rallies hire models to gather signatures etc. And fund it like your election depends on it.
murder
Member
Tue Nov 15 07:47:38

Explain this ...

Arizona voters approve extending in-state college tuition breaks to noncitizens

PHOENIX — Arizona voters have approved an initiative to extend cheaper in-state college tuition to some noncitizen students, cheering supporters who hope the measure’s passage Monday will help spark momentum for wider immigration reform in Congress.

The Associated Press called the race for Proposition 308 after the latest round of vote releases gave it a big enough lead that the AP determined it could not lose. Arizona joins at least 18 other states, including California and Virginia, that offer in-state tuition to all students who otherwise qualify regardless of immigration status.

“This shows there is bipartisan broad consensus about immigration solutions,” Rebecca Shi, executive director of the national American Business Immigration Coalition Action, said earlier in the day, anticipating the proposition’s success.

The measure was referred to the ballot by Arizona’s Legislature and repeals some parts of an earlier initiative that banned in-state tuition for noncitizens. It will allow all students regardless of immigration status to pay in-state college rates as long as they attended Arizona high schools for two years and graduated.

Advocates say tens of thousands of future noncitizen students who have been in Arizona for years could potentially benefit from the proposition in a state where an estimated 275,000 migrants are living without authorization.

The measure will allow qualifying noncitizen students to pay the current in-state undergraduate tuition of $10,978 per academic year at Arizona’s state universities. Those universities do not have a specific rate for noncitizens brought to the U.S. as children, but officials say more than 300 students are currently paying a non-resident rate for Arizona high school graduates that is 150% of in-state costs.

Community college students will also benefit.

The vote is a turnaround from 2006, when Arizona voters rode a widespread wave of anti-immigrant sentiment to bar students who entered the U.S. without authorization from getting in-state tuition and other financial benefits, even if they lived here most of their lives.

Subsequent years saw other anti-immigrant measures.

The Arizona legislature in 2010 passed the so-called “show me your papers” law that allowed law enforcement officers to to check the immigration status of residents during routine stops. Denounced by activists as racial profiling, the law was partially struck down by the U.S. Supreme Court two years later.

Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio, who immigration advocates accused of racial profiling, was later elected out of office and found guilty of misdemeanor contempt of court for ignoring a 2011 court order to stop the patrols. Then-President Donald Trump in 2017 issued a presidential pardon for that conviction.

Although concerns about security along the U.S.-Mexico border remain high in Arizona, advocates say that attitudes have changed somewhat concerning young people brought to the U.S. by their families when they were small children.

Supporters said they now hope approval of the measure will encourage Congress to consider wider immigration reform.

“I’m proud of Arizona and how far we have come,” said Bob Worsely, a retired Republican state legislator and co-chair of the coalition that backed passage of Proposition 308.

Volunteers in recent months knocked on millions of doors and sent out millions of text messages to assure the measure’s passage.

Hazel Villatoro, who attended schools in Arizona her whole life after her parents brought her to the United States from Mexico when she was 1, said Proposition 308 will change her future.

“I will now be able to achieve my dream of becoming an anesthesiologist,” said Villatoro. “I want to thank the voters of Arizona for doing the right thing.

Many Arizona business owners say it makes sense to make sure the brightest young people remain and seek jobs in the state, whatever their immigration status, especially with worker shortages in some sectors.

“Proposition 308 is not only the right thing, but also the smart thing,” said John Graham, president of Sunbelt Holdings, an Arizona real estate management, investment and development firm, and board chairman of the Arizona State University Foundation.

On other ballot initiatives, Arizona voters rejected one of the three referendums placed on the ballot by Republican state lawmakers that would limit the citizen’s initiative process. The defeated measure would have allowed the Legislature to make changes to voter-approved laws if one part of it was declared to be illegal. Two others referendums changing the initiative process were called Monday night.

http://www...on-citizens-in-state-college-/

murder
Member
Tue Nov 15 07:54:06

Proposition 308

Allow certain non-citizen students to receive in-state college tuition

Expand in-state tuition rates 51.3%

Maintain current tuition rules 48.7%


Also Arizona voters rejected an amendment that would've tightened voter ID requirements ...

Proposition 309

Require in-person voters to show unexpired photo ID, and require mail-in voters to submit affidavit of identity

Require ID 49.5%

Do not require 50.5%

http://www...sults/arizona/ballot-measures/

Habebe
Member
Tue Nov 15 08:00:15
Easy, low informed "voters" having a harvester talk them into signing stuff.

Why do you think magazine subscriptions are still a thing?
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