Utopia Talk / Politics / And here goes Kherson

Seb Member	Fri Nov 11 01:45:54 Sounds like the retreat is going well.
habebe Member	Fri Nov 11 01:57:42 Didn't Russia flee Pierson a few days ago?
habebe Member	Fri Nov 11 01:58:05 Fucking autocorrect. Kherson*
jergul large member	Fri Nov 11 01:58:57 How many days did Ukraine pause fearing a trap after Russia formally announced the withdrawal? The third major fall-back without major issue. Russia has a knack for retreating it seems :D.
habebe Member	Fri Nov 11 02:26:30 Jergul, Why do you think that is? Just good at minimizing bad engagement, or something more clever?
jergul large member	Fri Nov 11 02:29:22 Very low footprint (not actually very many troops along the line of contact) combined with Ukraine struggling with anything other that setpiece battles.
jergul large member	Fri Nov 11 02:32:17 That was unfair. Ukraine did fine in feb-march in terrain suited for patrols romping about with portable anti tank weapons. But that is as decentralized as fighting can be and relies heavily on individual initiative in very small scale engagements.
Seb Member	Fri Nov 11 02:44:22 Jergul: "The third major fall-back without major issue. Russia has a knack for retreating it seems :D." Asside from retreating from Territory they just claimed to be Russia forever, there's numerous reports of kit being abandoned, troops bombarded at crossing points etc.
Seb Member	Fri Nov 11 02:46:21 Ukraine's strategy is to corrode Russian forces, then threaten to flank and gradually squeeze the Russians out. If the front collapses, woo. If not, keep probing It's clearly working.
jergul large member	Fri Nov 11 03:13:19 Seb There is a political cost, but Russia actually has undefined territorial boundaries. It annexed political entities that had previously claimed Ukrainian territory, but it does not follow that Russia is also claiming sovereignity over the same areas. Russia is just doing an Israel in terms of not defining what its actual territory is. Quite a lot of what has gone down has been taken out of the Israeli playbook. Ask Palestinians how stable their electricity supply is. Is it clearly working? Barely anyone lives in the areas Ukraine has recaptured. You should read "Dead Souls". It gives an important perspective on former imperial russian areas. It is often not about the land, it is about the people. Fighting may very well continue until the last Ukrainian leaves for Europe. To coin a phrase.
jergul large member	Fri Nov 11 03:19:17 I have mentioned it before, but the conflict is comparable to Israel's stuff. Recognized refugees. Palestine - 5.6 million Ukraine - 5.4 million As a reminder: Israel - Russia Palestine - Ukraine Arab States - The West
Seb Member	Fri Nov 11 04:34:01 Casuistry doesn't win wars jergul.
jergul large member	Fri Nov 11 04:58:29 Seb You think Israel's success in its ventures has not been comprehensively studied? Russia has been copy-catting the ambiguity Israel has turned into an artform for quite some time. Nobody is going to win this war. It was obvious from the onset that Russia would take a heavy economic and political hit. It has always been about who loses the least.
Paramount Member	Fri Nov 11 05:35:36 It is not a retreat. It is called an elastic defense.
jergul large member	Fri Nov 11 05:49:32 Its a retreat.
jergul large member	Fri Nov 11 05:59:17 Russia says it is done pulling back across the river.
williamthebastard Member	Fri Nov 11 06:31:16 I dunno about being good at retreating, reports are that theyre fleeing in chaos and getting hammered at the same time
jergul large member	Fri Nov 11 06:44:11 You know you are on a limb when you sound like Trump Wtb. But sure. Ukraine controls the area. Lets see the pictures of destroyed columns and captured ammo dumps.
williamthebastard Member	Fri Nov 11 06:49:39 Lol. Heres the source: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wtnps4IymH4
williamthebastard Member	Fri Nov 11 06:50:54 That means exactly what I said: Thats a decent source, a top Swedish general, but I have in no way claimed its proven fact.
williamthebastard Member	Fri Nov 11 06:54:27 Translation: "We actually don't know what's going on, but there are many reports that the retreat has turned into chaos, this well-organized retreat thety were talking about hasnt seemed to pan out. At the same time, Ukraine is pushing forward and using a lot of artillery, according to indications. I suspect heavy russian casualties will ensue"
jergul large member	Fri Nov 11 06:56:23 Well, why dont we wait for Ukraine to show us pictures of its tremendous war booty, destroyed russian columns, and 100ds if not thousands of prisoners and corpses? Fleeing in chaos and getting hammered at the same time would have those things as byproducts.
williamthebastard Member	Fri Nov 11 06:56:56 Of course we wait for more evidence before claiming its fact. Duh
jergul large member	Fri Nov 11 07:00:49 The retreat is done, the bridge blown by the russians. All that remains is for Ukraine to advance with more than recon troops. In sum: Russia has been withdrawing for weeks (the first comments about it began three weeks ago) and has pulled out civilians, stockpiles, some light industry (a uniform factory to name a concrete example) and its troops. Ukraine was wary of being drawn into a trap, so put very little pressure on Russia after probes were comprehensively whacked a couple weeks back. So, until we have evidence of the opposite, it seems Russia remains good at retreating.
williamthebastard Member	Fri Nov 11 07:02:41 yawn
williamthebastard Member	Fri Nov 11 07:05:12 The guardian agrees with the general, I see. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i7v3-3HBCKA
jergul large member	Fri Nov 11 07:08:34 Well, dont make extra-ordinary claims without extra-ordinary evidence. If you are being trite, then expect a trite response. It really is all about the logistics. Ukraine simple did not have the bulk of its arty in range. Sure it can showcase a single volley launch of 70km+, but the volume has a effective range of below 20km. 70km ranged weapons are not immune to countermeasures if there is time to put them in place. Russia had weeks to prepare. So a single volley of missiles and a few MATVs on the march and you and your general surmise a retreat in anarchy. Myoptic much?
jergul large member	Fri Nov 11 07:11:38 And just to pre-empt. Edgelord "I did not actually say" is BS.
williamthebastard Member	Fri Nov 11 07:13:47 It wasnt an extraordinary claim in the slightest, it was quite adequately backed up with a decent source and the triteness most definitely comes from you, not to mention the sounding like Putin/limb stuff. You're vaguely amusing when you project all your nonsense, and a little more when you sit there in the dark envisioning yourself as an expert at every topic in the universe, but in general, boring.
jergul large member	Fri Nov 11 07:20:59 Wtb Au contraire. I have zero opinions on sports. It gives me a lot of time for other things. Just realize we live in a propaganda bubble, so have to think carefully through what you are being spooned. The war is horrible for Russia, but a complete disaster for Ukraine. Sure, Ukraine has retaken a part of a region and secured its southern flank. A great victory. Mikolajev and Odessa are safe. It is a huge deal. But pay attention. The population is gone. Look at the size of the crowds. Will they ever return? Who the hell knows.
jergul large member	Fri Nov 11 07:22:36 You source started off with "I dont fucking know", then spouted a bunch of unfounded BS. Just take the win. No need to invent shit.
Seb Member	Fri Nov 11 07:27:05 jergul: What's your point, exactly? Would they be better off not resisting and just letting the Russian tanks roll all the way to Kiev?
jergul large member	Fri Nov 11 07:41:36 Seb Of course not. I do however believe that the first step is accurate information. There is no basis for ending the fighting without it. Zelinskij's relative inexperience shows in terms of the 2nd step. It is actually desirable to end the fighting. On what terms is the question. It is still too early, stuff has to play out more. But do we really want 8 years of it? Who does continued fighting benefit once an equilibrum is established?
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Fri Nov 11 08:46:13 Jergul "But do we really want 8 years of it?" This is a great question, the obvious answer is no, but maybe we need it? Maybe we need a few years of energy rations and global famine. And maybe after those years, someone can tell us what a woman is exactly.
Seb Member	Fri Nov 11 09:07:28 jergul: "But do we really want 8 years of it? Who does continued fighting benefit once an equilibrum is established?" Well, as you say, neither side believes they have reached such a stalemate.
murder Member	Fri Nov 11 09:30:25 "Russia has a knack for retreating it seems" They should stick to what they're good at.
murder Member	Fri Nov 11 09:32:25 "But do we really want 8 years of it?" We're barely 8 months into it. Settle down.
murder Member	Fri Nov 11 09:46:44 jergul would've been a hoot during the 2nd World War. "Won't the US entering the war just prolong it?" "The Nazis can't be defeated. We should just accept their territorial gains." "Sure it looks like their eastern and western fronts are collapsing, but they are just grinding down the allies. We should sue for peace while we still can." "This war has been going on for years. Who benefits from prolonging it further?"
jergul large member	Fri Nov 11 09:50:44 Murder Too bad you are leaving Ukraine to do the fighting alone. It sort of screws up your analogy. You are lend-leasing like it is 1940.
Pillz Member	Fri Nov 11 10:11:55 Ignoring comments by wtb and Seb since they're retarded I am curious as to why jergul doesn't seem to expect Russia to retake Kherson in the coming months?
jergul large member	Fri Nov 11 10:17:18 Pillz Why? Even assuming mobilization to the degree required, it would still leave Russia with the same supply problems that lead to it retreating in the first place. Under such an optimistic mobilization plan, Russia would do better isolating Kharkiv city with the intent of swapping Kharkiv for western kherson during peace negotiations. I personally dont think either is realistic. A significantly larger chunk of Donbas maybe.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Fri Nov 11 10:35:20 There we go Pillz, you are now officially the last one riding this bus :)
murder Member	Fri Nov 11 10:36:13 Russia is just getting started retreating. It's just a matter of time until Crimea is isolated.
murder Member	Fri Nov 11 10:38:33 "You are lend-leasing like it is 1940." Lend-leasing was extremely effective. I know Russians are eternally grateful. ;o)
williamthebastard Member	Fri Nov 11 10:50:11 The Ukrainians are, thats for sure. Theyre like, hell, you want us to try out new weapons for you on the Russians? Hell, yeah, give us everything you've got
murder Member	Fri Nov 11 10:55:29 I was referring to WWII lend-leasing to Russia. ;o)
williamthebastard Member	Fri Nov 11 11:43:59 Theyre claiming lots of dead russians as they begin to roll into the streets
williamthebastard Member	Fri Nov 11 11:46:01 Theyre also claiming many thousands of russians failed to flee and are now trapped. We shall see.
williamthebastard Member	Fri Nov 11 11:47:14 They're now speculating that reports of russians changing into civilian clothes may in fact be russians who got trapped there after they blew up the bridge
Pillz Member	Fri Nov 11 11:51:49 Lol @ jergul Seems to me it becomes less difficult for Russia as time goes on. And it seems pretty obvious that the entirety of the Ukrainian-Russian border is at risk, Kharkov at a minimum. Another report this week of Ukrainians trying to cross into Russia...
williamthebastard Member	Fri Nov 11 11:59:40 "There are dead Russian soldiers just everywhere. Some have been lying there for days, some for weeks. It's terrible." - Cmd. Alex Gorgan
williamthebastard Member	Fri Nov 11 12:03:36 Or, in Jergulese, "A highly coordinated and well-organized tactical relocation"
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Fri Nov 11 12:16:06 "Or, in Jergulese," Haha. Ok now do me :D
Pillz Member	Fri Nov 11 12:49:07 Lol @ retard wtb "The Kremlin about the abandonment of Kherson. 1. Kherson region remains a subject of the Russian Federation. There is no change in her status. 2. The Russian Federation has no regrets about accepting it into its composition. 3. The position of Ukraine makes it impossible to achieve the goals of the SMO by peaceful means. 4. SMO in Ukraine will continue. The SMO may end once its stated objectives have been achieved." Lol :o) Total retreat! Crimea by Christmas! Moscow by July 4th!
jergul large member	Fri Nov 11 18:15:52 Wtb You poor man. Try to leave the propaganda bubble you live in and wait for evidence. I actually said "Russia is gud at retreating". Stop being so sad, mkay?
jergul large member	Fri Nov 11 18:31:27 Ukraine has captured a helicopter I saw. Russia boobytrapped an abandoned tank it detonated when Ukraine tried to tow it away (tow - heh, see what I did there). Giving the Ukr tank crew a proper scare I am sure. I also saw a few hundred kg of captured ammunition. About 1/3rd of the prewar population seems to have remained in the former occupied areas. People seem happy to have been liberated. There are just not very many of them. "Russians hiding as civilians" is likely propaganda aimed at supporting the narrative of absolute 100% support by the Ukrainian population while still being able to detain suspected collaborators.
jergul large member	Sat Nov 12 01:04:33 Not to mention the 3 or maybe 2 POWs. One of them might be the one of the other two.
Paramount Member	Sat Nov 12 02:29:56 ” Russians hiding as civilians” Ukrainians been killing civilians so now they have to say that it was Russian soldiers in civilian clothing.
habebe Member	Sat Nov 12 04:42:44 That seems plausible. There njustnisnt anyway around killingnl civillians if engaging in this sort of war. I think both sides just propaganda slam then other "OMG they killed women and kids" Now individual calls/strikes, can be viewed as more or less just.
Hrothgar Member	Sat Nov 12 09:52:04 Lots of rumor, propaganda, guess work, copium here for both sides over the last 9 months... I just go look at the map of who controls what area and that tells all the truth I need to know of the reality of the situation at the moment.
jergul large member	Sat Nov 12 10:04:46 Hrothgar That is a pretty good perspective to have.
Pillz Member	Sat Nov 12 19:48:20 Except that until today, Hrothgar has been regurgating NAFO propaganda. And maps still don't tell much of the story.
Seb Member	Sun Nov 13 17:13:44 Ukraine appear to have staged San amphibious landing and fought half way up the kinburn peninsula - potentially flanks a chunk of the new defensive lines Russia has placed. Reckon the forces freed up from Kherson can be redployed to zapahorisa. Chip chip chip.
jergul large member	Sun Nov 13 17:30:22 Just politically motivated liberation of a marsh bird sanctuary. Last part of Mikolayev not liberated. Not militarily relevant at all.
jergul large member	Mon Nov 14 03:33:53 What is up with Russia getting blamed for a sledgehammer execution performed in Kiev? Is the idea that there is a 5th column that focuses exclusively on executing Russia traitors or something?
Paramount Member	Mon Nov 14 04:43:41 It is very convenient for Ukraine to blame killings and destruction of civilian houses on Russia. But Ukraine itself has probably killed a lot of civilians with Russian ethnicity, and they have probably been shelling civilian houses themselves.
Habebe Member	Mon Nov 14 04:57:07 Everybody knows of the world famous Russian sledgehammer regimen. Led by Chief Cho’gall the Ogre-Mage.
Seb Member	Mon Nov 14 05:39:33 Jergul: Not a springboard for a new axis, but military significant in a couple of ways. The area is outside Russian arty and air defence - Ukrainians have fire control over it. Currently there are no Russian forces defending from attack in that direction. And while Ukraine can't e.g. use it to send an armoured column info Crimea, if the Russians don't build defences, it can be used to raid supply lines. So Russia either has to build a bunch of further defences, guard more carefully its supply lines to the fortifications, or invade and hold the peninsula. It fits with the Ukrainian approach to date of making Russia split and spread themselves while threatening their supply lines.
jergul large member	Mon Nov 14 05:47:29 Seb Russia reports is sank 3 zodiacs, killed 20 Ukrainians and drove off the raid. Raids with zodiacs are inconsequentional beyond whatever the raiders can accomplish in a couple hours. But sure. Russia will prolly have to keep using a few 100d reservists to garrison the 3 tiny villages in the area.
jergul large member	Mon Nov 14 05:50:10 You may note I am ignoring your random guess work about Russian troop dispositions.
Seb Member	Mon Nov 14 07:22:43 Jergul: "Russia reports is sank 3 zodiacs, killed 20 Ukrainians and drove off the raid." Source? It's not random, the Russian fortification work has been ongoing for months and documented in all sorts of OSINT. We can only conclude from you aren't aware of them.
jergul large member	Mon Nov 14 07:34:54 Seb Some Russian source. http://www...ram_channel_claims_a_sabotage/ So Russia is not building tank baricades and dragon teeth is a swampy bird sanctuary and you therefore conclude the villages are not held?
jergul large member	Mon Nov 14 07:43:57 It amazes me how much you are willing to hype non-events. The raid is clearly politically motivated so that Ukrainian authorities can claim the entire mykolayev oblast has been liberated. About half of the swamp is technically part of mykolayev. Zodiacs I know. I used them many times a day freighting tourists from ship to shore sightseeing on Spitzbergen for a couple seasons. http://www...!8m2!3d80.0300313!4d14.4832769 The furthest north I have ever been. Walruses use the island for sunbathing. Disgusting creatures laying covered in their own poop :D.
Hrothgar Member	Mon Nov 14 09:24:11 I would think the last things Ukraine leadership feels like it needs to achieve is "politically motivated" empty victory. That tactic is solidly within Russia's playbook, true. But Ukraine already has all the motivation they can handle by virtue of defending their homeland and taking back large swaths of formerly occupied land over the previous months. Last thing Ukraine needs to keep the people at home in the fight emotionally is some empty pointless swamp. If they are fighting there, they have a strategic reason, likely attempting to shape Russian defenses in a way they perceive as being favorable long term.
jergul large member	Mon Nov 14 09:31:29 Hrothgar Oh, they love crap like that. I doubt they are fighting in the swamp. Just a raid in zodiacs. They were there for a few hours at most. And will probably be back later. Just long enough to plant a flag or two. They certainly brought enough of those when they liberated Kherson.
Seb Member	Mon Nov 14 13:42:28 Hrothgar: Yeah, I think that. Most likely a diversion - force Russia to tramp around in swamps during winter under Ukrainian guns to ensure no one is using it as a base to attack supply lines.
obaminated Member	Mon Nov 14 13:51:59 Kherson sounds like the name of an NFL RB
jergul large member	Mon Nov 14 14:31:49 Seb Just for the lulz, how many Ukrainians to you think tried to land?
Seb Member	Mon Nov 14 18:12:40 jergul: "tried to land" supposes you take at face value the Russian post on telegram that says a few zodiacs got shot up, rather than the other Russian telegram that says the town was taken. We will see in the morning. But I agree with Hrothgar - they wouldn't have done this for propaganda. It's about diversion and forcing the Russians to deploy more troops to defend the peninsula and be mucking around in the marshes in areas under the ranger of Ukrainian guns in order to ensure their supply lines are protected. You can do that with 40 men on a raid, or hundreds of men grabbing a town. The area was - reportedly - not overstaffed with Russians (and largely of the cannon fodder quality). The message is "no, you have to put professionals into the marsh to be shot at by artillery".
jergul large member	Tue Nov 15 01:43:39 Ukrained does everything with an eye on propaganda. Some of the things also have military relevance. Raiding a marsh is not one of those things. Just look at you trying to spin a platoon to company sized raid (your numbers) to an act of military brilliance.
murder Member	Tue Nov 15 03:46:34 Well they are going to propaganda the Russian back across the border.
jergul large member	Tue Nov 15 04:25:30 Murder More we than they if it indeed happens. Unsurprisingly, Ukraine would be comprehensively fucked at all levels without our aid surpassing total Russian defence spending.
Seb Member	Tue Nov 15 04:37:40 Oh look, Russia has set up new defensive line across the peninsula: http://twi...?t=lIYdpXVhjf0KgPzr6aOgTg&s=19 In range of Ukrainian artillery on the north/west bank. "So Russia either has to build a bunch of further defences, guard more carefully its supply lines" "It's about diversion and forcing the Russians to deploy more troops to defend the peninsula and be mucking around in the marshes in areas under the ranger of Ukrainian guns" Ho hum.
jergul large member	Tue Nov 15 05:04:35 Check the time stamp. Defences from two weeks ago. The raid is irrelevant to its construction. The whole river line is in range of Ukrainian arty on the north-east bank. Of course Russia is garrisoning the spit. There are like 3 villages there. It might have as many as a few 100d second line troops there. The raid was militarily irrelevant and served only propaganda purposes. Which you have heavily bought into.
Seb Member	Tue Nov 15 06:10:18 So rather than being concentrated in a couple of towns, they are now sitting in trenches, in a marsh, during winter, under bombardment. The fact the line was prepared in October isn't so much a point.
jergul large member	Tue Nov 15 06:25:55 Seb You keep on saying random things as if they have significance. The raid has changed nothing in the Russian defensive posture. Why would it? Russia has built defences that anchor the river line in the event of an all out Ukrainian offensive. It can take up fighting positions there if the need arises at some future juncture.
Pillz Member	Tue Nov 15 09:32:51 Lol @ seb and murder Go back to watching your wives get dicked down by your sons fathers faggots
McKobb Member	Tue Nov 15 09:58:24 Goloshchapov Konstantin Veniaminovich is on the run. :P
LazyCommunist Member	Tue Nov 15 10:20:10 Even the blacks fight on our side, the world stands with us in our holy war against nazi satanic ukrainians! http://www...r-foreign-minister-2022-11-14/ LUSAKA, Nov 14 (Reuters) - Zambia has asked Russia to explain how one of its citizens who had been serving a prison sentence in Moscow ended up on the battlefield in Ukraine, where he was killed, Zambia's foreign affairs minister said on Monday. Stanley Kakubo said in a statement that Russia had notified Zambia about the death in September of Lemekhani Nyirenda, but did not provide details. The Zambian student was serving a jail sentence at a medium security prison on the outskirts of Moscow after being convicted of contravening Russian law, Kakubo said, without specifying the offence that occurred in April 2020. "The Zambian government has requested the Russian authorities to urgently provide information on the circumstances under which a Zambian citizen, serving a prison sentence in Moscow, could have been recruited to fight in Ukraine," Kakubo said. It was not clear how the prisoner was recruited and by whom. Reuters could not independently verify the details surrounding his death. "He was serving the prison sentence when he was conscripted into the army to go and fight in Ukraine but we don't know who conscripted him," the student's father Edwin Nyirenda said. Russia's defence ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the circumstances of his journey to Ukraine and subsequent death. The 23-year-old, who was studying nuclear engineering at a university in Moscow, was convicted and jailed for nine years and six months, according to Kakubo. His father said Lemekhani was jailed for drug trafficking while doing a part-time job as a courier. According to Edwin Nyirenda, his son was given a parcel, which contained drugs and the police were not able to identify the person who gave it to him. Kakubo said further details would be provided once official communication was received from the Russian authorities on the circumstances surrounding the Zambian's death. His remains have been transported to the Russian border town of Rostov in readiness for repatriation to Zambia, Kakubo added. "We just received a message from a man we do not know in Russia who told us that there was a will, which our son left and we should travel to Russia," Nyirenda said. The family said they were planning to go to Russia to identify the body.
McKobb Member	Tue Nov 15 10:51:23 That's sad
Pillz Member	Tue Nov 15 11:13:07 Because he volunteered to join Wagner Boohoo
McKobb Member	Tue Nov 15 11:20:17 were you born sad, little girl, or did you daddy make you that way?
Pillz Member	Tue Nov 15 11:52:02 ^ proudly drinks lead contaminated water
McKobb Member	Tue Nov 15 12:13:27 meh, i expected better
murder Member	Tue Nov 15 15:04:45 "Go back to watching your wives get dicked down by your sons fathers faggots" Ummm ...
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