Utopia Talk / Politics / Return of the Russians

Pillz Member	Thu Jan 26 10:58:57 Jergul - what are you referring to exactly? SAMs?
Pillz Member	Thu Jan 26 11:09:16 To follow up on Nim's war footage comment: I don't bring up the war often, but when it is brought up I don't shy away from it any. I don't have to say much though, because to date I've never met someone who believed Canadian or US media on the situation. It's like after corona everybody decided they won't believe this grand lie. Refreshing.
LazyCommunist Member	Thu Jan 26 11:56:13 We defeated the Nazis once before with these tanks, now we will do it again! http://twi..._en/status/1618564448582774784
jergul large member	Thu Jan 26 12:21:25 Pillz Yes. SAM suppression videos and air defences/aircraft "working" are subject to a higher level of censor. So less video drops. But part of it is also electric grid defence. SAMs that could be working behind the line of contact are protecting Odesa instead.
Pillz Member	Thu Jan 26 12:38:52 My analysis wasn't based off of videos. It was based off of the MoD's daily updates, which are by no means comprehensive, I understand. I hadn't considered increased censorship of air force operations. However since the MoD's running tally of AFU material losses isn't reflecting unannounced air strikes on SAMs, I assume it's the later reason is more applicable here (SAMs being transferred from the front for infrastructure and logistics defense)
jergul large member	Thu Jan 26 12:54:56 Yepp, sorry, I misunderstood what you were using as source material. By all accounts, Russia does not do hunter-seeker missions versus ground targets. An aircraft knows its target before taking off. So Ukrainian air defences are still feared close to the front, even if air defence volume has suffered from diversions to rear area defence.
Pillz Member	Thu Jan 26 14:18:53 I would imagine that if they can strike up to half a dozen radars per day, they'd be contending with SAMs or have the same artillery/MLRS capabilities to target them as with radars? Or is counter battery radar system/anti radar system usage disassociated from SAM placement?
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Thu Jan 26 14:36:52 Pillz This is whay I said: ”I have you down as someone who actually leaves "edgy" comments on snuff videos.” Words only someone who has read comments on snuff videos can say. I am not judging you for watching them, you illiterate imbecile.
Pillz Member	Thu Jan 26 15:00:50 'I have you down as someone who actually leaves' Youre asserting that you think, literally, that I leave '"edgy" comments on snuff videos.”' Which I am telling you I do not, by telling you I don't even watch snuff videos. Simple. You, illiterate imbecile that you are, demonstrate again that your English proficiency is pathetic, and have no idea what the fuck you said. You weren't making a comparison between my posts and those of snuff videos, but asserting that I post on them. And then you fucking decide to re-read that, quote it, and double down on your fucking ESL bullshit?
Pillz Member	Thu Jan 26 15:02:20 Youre 0 for 2 and I haven't even taken a turn. You need to step off you dumb little shit colored swede.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Fri Jan 27 03:35:57 There was no war footage comment you moron. You can screech all you want that “I don’t understand English”, makes it more hilarious. Let us review the post again in full, so that pillz slippery grasp of his own language is clear: “I have you down as someone who actually leaves "edgy" comments on snuff videos. *At least* you[‘re] writing style is that of a chat bot that was trained with snuff video comments.“ In other words what you watch or don’t is irrelevant because you talk and behave like the kind of cancer that leaves edgy comments at snuff video sites. It’s called hedging, in the event that someone would do the obvious thing that you just did and simply deny the act. Your shit talking skills are that of a retarded chimp. The only correct choice here was to ignore what I said/me, but like an easily manipulated chump, hook line and sinker. What the fuck was all that I “can’t be fucked” talk? Anyway, it is a record of some sort, I laid into Rugian so hard, his boyfriend’s ass got hurt and he had to ride into defend him. Gonna note that down as a kind of achievement.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Fri Jan 27 03:38:07 lol I try to correct something and I still type it wrong. your*.
jergul large member	Fri Jan 27 03:52:20 "Your shit talking skills are that of a retarded chimp" That may have been an unintended compliment. Nobody beats chimps at poop throwing. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0veiTgUQLKw
jergul large member	Fri Jan 27 03:53:04 Backhanded compliment* Literally :D
murder Member	Fri Jan 27 16:37:44 Mother fucking Pillz! You didn't work "Tanks for nothing!" into the title. >:o(
Paramount Member	Fri Jan 27 17:41:27 I found this comment on a youtube video: According to Israel Intelligence Russian losses....... 23 planes, 56 helicopters, 200 drones, 889 tanks and armored vehicles, 427 artillery pieces, 12 anti-aircraft systems, 18,480 dead, 44,500 wounded, 323 captured. number of soldiers in the field 418,000, reserve 3,500,000 a massive influx of salarymen from abroad was observed in the Wagner unit Ukrainians lost 302 planes, 212 helicopters, 2750 drones, 6320 tanks and armored vehicles, 7360 artillery pieces, 497 anti-aircraft systems, 157,000 dead, 234,000 wounded 17230 prisoners, the number of soldiers on the ground 734000 mobilization for the filling of military units in the amount of 100,000 soldiers is underway.. 234 dead NATO soldiers (officers, instructors, operatives, US GB,) 2458 dead NATO soldiers (Poland, Germany, Lithuania...) 5360 dead mercenaries data from ............. 14.01.2023. accuracy of Israeli intelligence +/- Take with a grain of salt. - - So if the jews are telling the truth, the ratio is 1:8.5 8.5 Ukrainians killed for every Russian killed.
Pillz Member	Fri Jan 27 22:06:09 "Now go back to suppressing the joy you feel watching dead soldiers," I end there. 0/3 didn't even read the rest of your post.
jergul large member	Sat Jan 28 06:47:45 https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PEA2510-1.html A long read. Worth it.
jergul large member	Sat Jan 28 06:47:57 http://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PEA2510-1.html
murder Member	Sat Jan 28 07:17:27 "A long read. Worth it." TL;DR Surrendering Ukraine to Putin.
jergul large member	Sat Jan 28 07:23:53 That outcome was discussed and dismissed as utterly unrealistic. You do know of the Rand organization, right?
jergul large member	Sat Jan 28 07:30:32 But you are in one sense right. It also dismisses Ukrainian war goals as utterly unrealistic. The problem I suppose is that Ukraine needs a total victory that is unachievable. Any lesser outcome is likely to lock Ukraine into a failed state spiral that can be averted only for as long as its economy remains on massive western life support.
murder Member	Sat Jan 28 07:31:24 Except that every single thing they say leads exactly there.
murder Member	Sat Jan 28 07:34:26 The whole thing is a Russian propaganda piece.
jergul large member	Sat Jan 28 07:42:23 The truth has a Russian bias? That is a new one :D. Look, Ukraine cannot achieve its goals without massive and direct Nato involvement. You think the West is chickenshit for not doing that. Fair enough. The West is chickenshit. And Ukraine cannot achieve its goals.
murder Member	Sat Jan 28 07:57:33 "The truth has a Russian bias?" What truth? You linked to a straight up piece of 100% bullshit. According to just the first few paragraphs of this bullshit ... 1. The US needs a quick end to the war. 2. Any action that the US could take to end the war quickly with a positive outcome is ruled out. Yeah this is going to be a tough nut to crack. Furthermore it turns out that the entire concept of nuclear deterrence is lie. 1. Russia may use nukes regardless of consequences. 2. The US/NATO could not respond in kind because it risks spiraling out of control. 3. The US/NATO could not respond with conventional military means because it risks spiraling out of control. 4. The US/NATO could not respond through economic or diplomatic means because it risks spiraling out of control. Gee I wonder what options are left? So if Russia does use nukes, the only option is to surrender. But that would be bad because it would set a bad precedent so instead we need to surrender before Russia gets desperate enough to use nukes. And since any and all potential responses to Russian aggression must be ruled out for fear of the conflict spiraling out of control ... I guess we may as well dissolve NATO and surrender all of Europe to Russia. Surrender Taiwan too because China may go nuclear if we don't. This piece couldn't be more transparent.
murder Member	Sat Jan 28 07:59:46 In fact that piece is so full of pro-Russia bullshit that it almost sounds like one of you war posts verbatim.
murder Member	Sat Jan 28 08:45:43 btw if anyone is wondering what Ukraine would get from the proposed negotiated surrender of it's territory and it's right of self-determination ... it would be another toothless security "guarantee" like they got when they gave up their nukes. These two must've been working right out of the Kremlin.
jergul large member	Sat Jan 28 09:47:40 Murder That is the key problem. Ukraine's only hope for a sustainable victory is significant kinetic involvement from Western powers. The paper justifies assumptions that it is not in US interests for the conflict to escalate to that level, so, well, yah. So, unless you have weighty arguments why it is in US interests to go to war against Russia, then it is what it is. Not propaganda. Just the normal Russia gets into a war and fucks things up, then slowly ends up grinding down the opposition anyway. Not do get into tactics and hardware (those things are seldom important, but Russia has found a niche for the http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BMPT_Terminator Designed for urban combat in light of experiences in Chechnya, it turns out it is actually very good at supporting MTBs in forest areas. A tactical game changer in sense that Ukrainian small team efforts in forest glades no longer seem particularly viable, which means areas north of Sivetsk are once again under serious Russian threat. The thing is basically just an old t-72 with a new remote controlled weapon system (4xATGM, 2x30mm, 2x40mm grenade launcher with 800 grenades total). A beast in the orderly rows of Ukrainian fir plantations (which almost all of the forests are).
jergul large member	Sat Jan 28 09:53:52 A Korean solution is the most likely outcome btw. All the fighting is just about where that highly militarized line is going to run. My guess is about where it is now, give or take a few thousand km2 (less than 3% of Ukraine's territory plus minus to this or that side).
jergul large member	Sat Jan 28 10:15:17 A jergulmap. My guess of what Russian territorial ambitions amount to. About half of it is just a bufferzone + as short a line of contact as possible. So no biggie, but a nice chunk of land outside of core provinces it could consider returning to Ukraine is some far future date when that might make sense. http://gyazo.com/75d4d9d960ae8dced98c3e08043a27fb I do not think Russia will make it close to that far. But Ukraine and Russia both certainly have dreams.
Pillz Member	Sat Jan 28 11:47:53 Ukraine won't be able to maintain a defensive line in 12 months time
jergul large member	Sat Jan 28 12:45:05 Pillz I dont think Russia wants to move deep into insurgent territory and will limit fighting to where it has at least 25% support (ie 50% indifferent, 25% pro each side). I am not sure where that goes as evacuations are quite good at pulling out pro evacuator civilians. So its dynamic. A buffer zone is fine though. Resistance is not much trouble in areas close to the line of contact due to higher troop density. Ukraine does not really need to hold a line, just urban strongpoints. Bypassing those is not really viable.
Pillz Member	Sat Jan 28 19:41:38 I don't see the situation in the east freezing until Russia is on route to Odessa. I expect they'll continue to advance, admittedly slowly, for as long as it takes to get their beachhead back. I also don't know that insurgency is much of a concern the longer this goes on.
jergul large member	Sat Jan 28 20:07:03 Pillz A Dnipro crossing in force is impossible based on any reasonable projection. The logistics of supply are just not feasible. Even if possible, Odesa would still be behind 3 almost unsurmountable geographical barriers. Insurgency is definitely a concern. Even in relatively pro-russian areas. Its not worth the headache and for what end anyway? Reconstruction costs are daunting as is. Why borrow more trouble in areas with little Russian language or culture?
Pillz Member	Sat Jan 28 21:18:39 All fair points. But even after the Kherson withdrawal, there was talk of Odessa and Kherson. All indications point towards a significant shift in momentum for Russia in the near to medium future. I don't think any of us really know how the AFU is going to look in 6 months, let alone 12. But Russia just stopping seems unlikely. I don't think insurgancy is a big issue the longer this goes because I expect Russia to offer evacuation for Ukrainian nationalists, and I expect that they'll be investing more resources into counter insurgancy operations (searching minor settlements for weapons etc). But we'll see I guess.
Pillz Member	Sat Jan 28 21:22:55 Russia could very easily open up another front in the north, the preparation is being laid for something anyways. It would only take a well executed operation with a relatively small force to preoccupy a significant chunk of AFU reserves and add unnecessary and vulnerable complications to logistics trains. There are still a lot of ways to bleed the Ukrainians. And eventually this is an army that will fold.
jergul large member	Mon Jan 30 07:12:34 Well, the Abrams will be built new because the US does not want Russia getting hold of the depleted uranium armour. This year or next, so definitely next year or the year after at the earliest. Anybody can do the fortify built up area thing and do it without resupply beyond what smugglers bring in. Sure, it is a high casualty scenario, but doable if Ukraine wants to play it that way and is forced to by adverse circumstances otherwise.
Daemon Member	Mon Jan 30 08:19:13 Pillz will laugh like an idiot as usual, but other may find it interesting: http://euobserver.com/opinion/156649 The European Court for Human Rights (ECHR) has made a landmark ruling recognising Russia's occupation of Eastern Ukraine since 2014. The finding, part of the Court's decision on the admissibility of Ukraine's case against Russia, has far-ranging consequences. The ECHR announced on 25 January that Russia was in "effective control" of separatist regions of Eastern Ukraine from 11 May 2014. In doing so, the court has formally acknowledged the inter-state character of the conflict and Russia's culpability for human rights abuses. (...)
jergul large member	Mon Jan 30 09:02:17 Well, acknowleging the conflict began in 2014 does clarify matters. Not all of the clarifications are to Ukraine's benefit. For example, why was it so ill prepared for a Russian escalation, or how much of its heroic defences are based on bunker systems constructed over the course of 8 years? What can we expect as Russia slowly clears the "Maginot" line and Ukraine is forced to defend more adhoc positions without pre-placed supplies and equipment? Questions like that.
jergul large member	Tue Jan 31 05:53:31 Seb Well, Russia's economy only grew from 56% (2021) to 67% (2022) of the UKs (gdp nominal terms). Looks like you did not completely implode in 2022 after all :).
Rugian Member	Tue Jan 31 06:08:50 "A Dnipro crossing in force is impossible based on any reasonable projection. The logistics of supply are just not feasible." *laughs in US ACOE*
jergul large member	Tue Jan 31 06:14:45 Ruggy Sending in the ACOE is a "reasonable projection" to you? Besides, dont they have fires, floods, icestorms, and gridfailures to deal with first at home?
jergul large member	Tue Jan 31 06:16:34 The problem is incidentally not building something to cross the Dnipro. It is keeping that something intact to sustain further operations on the opposite side of that major water barrier.
Seb Member	Tue Jan 31 06:20:54 Jergul: And that under the most sympathetic conditions for the outcome you were uncertain would happen - a govt intent on policies that would crash both the economy and the pound. Which I think rather proves my original point.
jergul large member	Tue Jan 31 06:34:50 It also proves my point. Using nominal as a gold standard can be misleading. The Russian economy did contract last year for all Russians. But since there was both inflation and a stable currency value, its nominal gdp increased quite significantly (from 1,77 to 2,13 trillion).
Seb Member	Tue Jan 31 08:14:28 jergul: I'm not really sure, in context, that really was your point: we were talking about the impact of sanctions as I recall and the relative sizes of the two economies. I pointed out that what you professed to be sufficiently possible was actually rather radically impossible. And so it was.
Seb Member	Tue Jan 31 08:14:29 jergul: I'm not really sure, in context, that really was your point: we were talking about the impact of sanctions as I recall and the relative sizes of the two economies. I pointed out that what you professed to be sufficiently possible was actually rather radically impossible. And so it was.
jergul large member	Tue Jan 31 08:37:36 That was really my point. I just chose the UK as a comparative example because it was struggling (and still is according to the IMF with a significant contraction expected in 2023). Nothing is radically impossible in the FIAT world btw. Not sure why you think the sterling is too big to fail.
Seb Member	Tue Jan 31 09:56:44 Jergul: We were having a discussion about the impact of sanctions on Russia. We had in fact talked (perhaps not in that thread, I forget) about how Russia was using currency effects (e.g. payments in roubles) to hide the impact. Indeed you'd cited the strength of the rouble as evidence of the lack of impact of sanctions. So it seems odd that your post was merely just a point about PPP Vs Nominal. There's nothing that would really stop any fiat currency falling. My point was for Sterling (or in PPP terms, to underlying economy) to collapse as dramatically as would be required to meet the scenario you were entertaining a plausible degree of possibility over required some extreme black swan event. As it happened even a fairly extreme black swan of the BoE hiking interest rates, engaging quantitative tightening, and a govt that not only pursued an insane fiscal policy but also decided to go about creating and announcing said fiscal policy in the most insane way possible (practically designed to scare the markets shitless) still didn't cause it come about. Not remotely.
jergul large member	Tue Jan 31 11:23:09 Seb Yes, we were. Doomsayers were saying "look at inflation" Look at how Russian economy is collapsing". I pointed out that actually, because of inflation, the Russian economy would grow significantly in nominal terms because its currency retained (actually gained) value. This turned out to be perfectly correct. The UK had a shitfest. I said if they keep fucking up, the economy will be on track to become smaller than Russia's. Mildly trollish I know. There is nothing "not remotely" about the chance that the relative value of two minor currencies might fluctuate within the range I said. This is not only true for the Sterling-Rouble, but also the Norwegian and Swedish currencies. The Swedish kroner lost a comparable amount of value to the Norwegian kroner in the same year. Both Norway and Russia have enough hard currency to inflate their currency values to any level they like frankly. Day to day value is set by supply and demand. If the State buys up a lot of domestic currency, then the value goes up. No black swan required.
jergul large member	Tue Jan 31 11:25:50 Yes, you heard it here first. Some dude in a crazy forum predicted that the Russian economy would grow significantly in 2022. Turns out the dude was entirely correct. Have you actually even heard it said by anyone else?
jergul large member	Tue Jan 31 11:33:21 Anyways, it looks like Ukraine is doing Hordor tactics (hold the door) to hold anything it can without much thought of force preservation while it awaits miracle weapons that will turn the tables somehow. I am not sure that is smart.
Pillz Member	Tue Jan 31 12:31:03 So the same thing they've been doing the entire time It looks like the whole sector around Bakhmut is about to collapse according to reports from both sides. Although 8 tanks were sent by the AFU. First report of AFU tanks in 3 weeks
Sam Adams Member	Tue Jan 31 13:52:36 "It looks like the whole sector around kiev is about to collapse according to reports" Pillz 1 year ago. Lol
LazyCommunist Member	Wed Feb 01 02:53:41 WW3 is coming, stop Biden before all Americans will have to die in nuclear fire, stop him, please!!! http://www...ge-weapons-sources-2023-01-31/ U.S. readies $2 billion-plus Ukraine aid package with longer-range weapons -sources The USAI funds would go toward the purchase of a new weapon, the Ground Launched Small Diameter Bomb (GLSDB) made by Boeing Co (BA.N), which have a range of 94 miles (150 km).
jergul large member	Wed Feb 01 03:07:05 Not actually being made by Boeing. What Boeing suggests is that it can take old HIMAR missiles from US stockpiles and slap on SDBs from US stockpiles to get GLSDBs. The concept has been tested, but this would be the first contract to make them.
Seb Member	Wed Feb 01 07:40:44 Jergul: Looks more to me like what they have been doing throughout: hold the line while Russians expend vast resources. Wait for Russia to deplete itself. Undertake shaping actions to get the Russians - now with deleted reserves - to commit forces to a particular area at expense of another area. Leverage shorter inside lines to attack at points of vulnerability created by Russian commitments.
jergul large member	Wed Feb 01 08:10:07 Seb Well, if you include Mariopol as part of Ukraine's incredible plan to wear down Russia as it always has done, then sure. The casualty and equipment loss ratio right now is nowhere near in Ukraine's favour. As what happens when 80% of casualties are caused by arty/airpower and Russia does 10 times the air sorties and anywhere from 3-9 times the arty salvoes.
jergul large member	Wed Feb 01 08:12:36 The window for an orderly pullback from Bakmut is closing fast if not closed already.
Seb Member	Wed Feb 01 08:31:47 I remember how the Ukrainian army had been decisively broken in the futility of trying to defend popasna in the sevrodonetsk pocket. Only a few months later they pushed the Russian forces all the way out of Kharkiv etc. You sound a little like MacNamara here.
jergul large member	Wed Feb 01 08:47:12 Rather MacNamara than Bakmut Bob. Attrition is not a question of breaking decisively, but whittling away by a 1000 shrapnel cuts. Himars pushed Russia out of Kharkiv. The Dnipro is a major water barrier. Ukraine cannot safeguard the bridges it holds either if Russia decides they need to go. Frankly, I think Belarus is only leverage keeping the crossing open. Hence Russia giving Belarus S-400ds and Iskander regiments with missile reserves along with stationing its own troops in the country. Not much Ukraine can do besides expand the fighting to more European countries if the bridges go boom.
jergul large member	Wed Feb 01 08:50:23 Hehe, well the promise of heavy tanks and IFVs may also be keeping the crossings open. No reason Russia would not want more hardware in the bag before it draws the strings shut.
Seb Member	Wed Feb 01 09:19:25 Or maybe you are over estimating Russias ability to cut the Dnipro.
jergul large member	Wed Feb 01 09:29:31 Seb Nope. It is trivial. Problem with the HIMARs was the payload. 85 kg (50kg TNT equivalent) had to riddle the bridge with literally scores of hits to render it inoperable. 300kg TNT equivalent warheads would do the job with a single good hit. The problem is safeguarding Belarus before leaving Ukraine with nothing better to do than invade it. The opportunity is more kit in the bag by waiting for Western tanks to be deployed East befor closing the sack.
jergul large member	Wed Feb 01 09:39:23 That is the problem, eh? Failure to defeat Russia or to enter serious negotiations with Russia has the Dnipro as the natural boundary between the two hostile states. Neither can really do much on the other side if things get really serious. It would be different if Ukraine was not so heavily reliant on Western supplies. Cherniv-Sumy-Kharkiv-Poltava would have been somewhat self-sufficient and have armaments production, fuel supplies and repair facilities 30 odd years ago for a war more like wwii when we might even question if Russia could take out the bridges reliably.
jergul large member	Wed Feb 01 10:11:39 Perhaps I am too McNamara, but the numbers don't add up. EU has helped train 30 000 Ukrainians since November. Impressive, right? Well, at the same time, Russia has trained 300k mobilized and 150k have just finished conscription service so are ready for contracts (if military PR works) or mobilization (same contract, but obligatory, if military PR does not work). So 450k. We can make all the noise we like about "helping", but it is obvious that Ukraine has to do the heavy lifting itself. Training is just an example of how much lifting it has to do to keep up with Russia.
Seb Member	Wed Feb 01 10:29:24 Jergul: I suspect the difference can be accounted for by the quality of the training.
jergul large member	Wed Feb 01 10:37:39 Seb I suspect you would be wrong. There are assumptions at the basis of Western military training that simply are not true for Ukraine. We dont really know how to fight against massed arty and without having usuable airpower. When speaking about forming the battlefield, remember that it has been formed for a fight Russia is simply better prepared for. The big flaw (lack of an NCO cadre) has for the most part been resolved by promoting soldiers with aptitude proven in combat. Russia suddenly has 10s of thousands of soldiers with aptitude proven in combat. The Huffha about convicts in a squad lead by a couple professionals describes an emerging NCO culture quite well btw.
jergul large member	Wed Feb 01 10:39:28 You can also read this from way lower officer losses. Junior officers no longer have to expose themselves quite as much to provide direct leadership for individual soldiers or squads.
LazyCommunist Member	Thu Feb 02 12:32:44 Yes, many "Russians" die in the waves of attacks. But !!!! Many of them are criminals and were only a burden on Russian society. So it's really a win-win situation if they die while throwing the enemy out of the new Russian territories! http://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1621095382771175426.html
LazyCommunist Member	Thu Feb 02 12:42:50 Time for jergul to organize a protest against the Norwegian regime, spending the money of the people for the Ukrainian nazis and satanists is a crime against humanity, what if they build new bio weapon labs with your tax money? http://www...id-ukraine-pm-says-2023-02-02/ Norway will increase the spending from its sovereign wealth fund in the coming years to fund military and civilian aid to Ukraine, Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Stoere told parliament on Thursday.
jergul large member	Thu Feb 02 13:02:46 "Multi-year commitment" Not how gov budgets work. I suspect the amount per year to be rather underwelming.
Pillz Member	Thu Feb 02 15:44:48 Manufacturing entirely new missiles and new tanks. Seems Washington is preparing to arm a post-war Ukraine, not supply them to fight the war they're in now.
obaminated Member	Thu Feb 02 15:46:19 Hot take from "home by christmas" pillz
jergul large member	Thu Feb 02 15:56:16 I was sort of interested to see if the large HIMAR missiles could actually penetrate Russian air defences reliably. I guess we will never know, but concerns about survivability was the reason for small diameter bombs instead. Besides, the US has very few 100ds, not thousands of the larger missiles in its arsenal.
LazyCommunist Member	Fri Feb 03 07:41:05 Oh jergul that sounds great. But they have build 500000 of the M26 missiles, how do you know they have only a few hundred left????
jergul large member	Sat Feb 04 04:15:34 LC Unguided?? You think Ukraine wants and needs unguided long range missiles? Check again for the guided versions for the few 100d number. The M26 engines are the ones to be repurposed for the small diameter bombs.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Sat Feb 04 09:08:06 Russian economy to outgrow UK and Germany in 2023 http://www...mid-energy-crisis-and-raging-w Apparently you can’t kick the world largest energy producer out of the energy market.
Paramount Member	Sat Feb 04 11:17:43 Two-thirds of Britons now support future referendum on rejoining the EU Two years after the UK transitioned out of the European Union nearly two-thirds of Britons now support a referendum on rejoining. A Savanta survey for The Independent also shows that the number of people who oppose another vote has fallen, with less than a quarter of voters now against a referendum. http://www...rendum-rejoin-eu-b2250813.html It looks like the Brits are ready to give up their independence again.
murder Member	Sat Feb 04 17:18:33 In the end the Conservative Party is going to have been a boon for the EU. The UK will end up rejoining without all the extra privileges it had before.
Rugian Member	Sat Feb 04 17:44:58 Two-thirds of Britons are idiots (assuming that poll is accurate). There was always going to be a transition period where the UK recalibrated its international trade relations. On top of that, COVID shut down the country for a substantial portion of the period since Brexit. There is no reason why a country as large as the UK can't thrive economically without giving up its national sovereignty to a bunch of Brussels bureaucrats. It wouldn't surprise me if British media was mostly claiming otherwise though.
obaminated Member	Sat Feb 04 21:14:54 It's pretty surprising that independent countries would willingly give up their independence like that. Uk isn't Puerto Rico for fucks sake.
murder Member	Sat Feb 04 22:18:13 No more surprising than individual states giving up their independence. You give something up but get something more valuable in return.
LazyCommunist Member	Sun Feb 05 06:46:43 Pillz???????? http://twitter.com/AnitaAnandMP/status/1621945982383538180
Rugian Member	Sun Feb 05 07:47:10 ^ Probably won't be of much help against the spring offensive, in which Russia gains 15 square miles of occupied territory, only to lose it four months later after Ukraine is gifted with F-35s and Gerald R. Ford carriers.
Rugian Member	Sun Feb 05 08:01:51 "No more surprising than individual states giving up their independence. You give something up but get something more valuable in return." I don't know about you, but I'd be hard-pressed to find a currently-independent country that looks at our politics, Congress, President, permanent bureaucracy and military/security/intelligence agencies, and thinks "yeah, I'd love to be governed by that."
Pillz Member	Sun Feb 05 09:50:11 Russians have entered the northern point of Bakhmut. Ukrainian military sources suggest an evacuation is imminent. Azov nazis claim to be preparing a defense, probably the last attempt to hold. Watched a hilarious YouTube video that was breaking down western tank capabilities and their potential impact on the war. Then he started a hypothetical where Ukraine might receive thousands of tanks and IFVs. Then he brought the audience back to earth and reminded them there are hardly even 500 tanks left in Europe in total Lol
Pillz Member	Sun Feb 05 10:17:50 Also, the majority of western tanks in Europe (Leopard 2A4 and A5) are roughly equivalent to the T-72B3M in terms of armour and firepower. However major optics upgrades have not taken place for most tanks. This means the T-73B3M has better thermal optics with about 50% more range. It's not even clear yet whether modernization will be undertaken on the majority of Leopard 2s before they're sent to the Ukraine.
pillz Member	Sun Feb 05 11:02:53 There may only be 500 or so tans in operational condition, but I took a moment to compile all modern western tanks in europe: 2A4: 674 (479) 2A5: 625 (124) 2A6: 564 (394) 2A7: 141 (97) Leopard 2 (other): 132 Leclerc: 406 Challenger 2: 158 (~250 including mothballed) Ariete: 200 Germany, nonspecific: 259 Brackets are numbers after removing Greek and Hungarian fleets since neither country is going to send tanks to Ukraine.
Sam Adams Member	Sun Feb 05 11:57:09 Pillz spent 5 months crying about 8 himars launchers. Now pillz is like "500 tanks wont matter".
Pillz Member	Sun Feb 05 12:28:47 2A4s and 2A5s are roughly equivalent to T-72B3Ms. Russia has plenty of those. Most of the hundreds Ukraine received so far were also similarly spec'd soviet tanks equivalent to the T-72B3 or T-62MVs Russia is also using on the lower end on the spectrum. Ukraine already had the largest operational and moth balled fleet in Europe when this kicked off a year ago. Where is that fleet now? Where are the polish tanks? What difference do you think a few hundred outdated or low-end western tanks will make? Where are your HIMARS?
LazyCommunist Member	Mon Feb 06 11:59:37 jergul you MUST stop this in the parliament! http://abc...3-billion-aid-ukraine-96918360 Oil-rich Norway is looking to donate 75 billion kroner ($7.3 billion) to Kyiv as part of a five-year support package that would make the Scandinavian country one of the world’s biggest donors to war-torn Ukraine, the Norwegian government said Monday. Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre said the money would be split evenly between military and humanitarian assistance over five years, broken down to 15 billion kroner ($1.5 billion) annually. The proposed aid package will be put to a vote in parliament.
jergul large member	Mon Feb 06 12:05:34 LC Ukraine is budgeting a 38 billion USD shortfall this year. 1.5 billion barely registers. Get a grip man :).
Pillz Member	Mon Feb 06 14:17:47 All the highways to Bakhmut are cut off. There's just country roads and open fields left now. Looks like game over for the Bakhmut-Siversk line. Russia also putting pressure on the Kharkov. Ukraine says they expect a large Russia offensive within 10 days.
LazyCommunist Member	Tue Feb 07 12:36:46 I can hear you NATO Nazis laugh out loud, but these numbers simply show that Russia will do everything to win this war, even ruin its own economy. You can't win! http://www...old-to-cover-budget-shortfall/ In the wake of the Russian attack on Ukraine, the West imposed sanctions. This now has consequences for the Kremlin’s budget. In January, Moscow drew on its gold and currency reserves in Chinese yuan to cover gaps in the national budget. A total of 2.27 billion yuan (around 309 million euros) and 3.6 tons of gold were sold, the Russian Ministry of Finance announced on Monday, according to the state news agency TASS. “The funds thus obtained were transferred to the state budget account to cover the deficit,” it said in a statement. The January hole in the state budget was estimated at 1.76 trillion rubles (23 billion euros). 59 percent more than in the previous year A total of 3.1 trillion rubles (around 40 billion euros) was spent, which corresponds to an increase of 59 percent compared to January of the previous year. The ministry has not given any reason for the additional spending. Russia has been waging a war of aggression against neighboring Ukraine since February 2022. The West has therefore imposed severe economic and financial sanctions on Moscow. State budget revenue from the oil and gas business fell by 46 percent compared to January 2022. According to the Ministry of Finance, Russia currently has reserves of 10.4 billion euros, 307.4 billion yuan and 551.2 tons of gold.
murder Member	Tue Feb 07 19:30:37 Imagine the Russians looking at China and the EU and deciding that they would rather become vassals of China.
LazyCommunist Member	Fri Feb 10 05:42:42 This thread is titled "Return of the Russians" and indeed many of them are now coming home having done their duty! Some are afraid of these prisoners who are allowed to go home after 6 months of fighting for Wagner. But doesn't war change people? Fighting for Russia can only make you a better person, 6 months in war is a better therapy than 20 years in prison. Our citizens should give these heroes a real chance and stop complaining so much!! http://www...rcenary-group?CMP=share_btn_tw But a video released last month showed several dozen former convicts – among them murderers, drug dealers and domestic abusers – now heading to their home towns in northern Russia, supposedly having earned pardons by surviving six months in Wagner’s ranks in Ukraine. In interviews, those who knew Salmin said they feared running into the same man who once terrorised their home town and may now have been made untouchable by his association with Prigozhin, one of Russia’s most notorious figures. “We started seeing him in town a few weeks ago,” one local resident who has known Salmin for many years told the Guardian. “He is a dangerous man, we all know what he did to his friend. I told my kids not to run around alone in the coming days. It wasn’t just what he did to his friend, he stole from people, got in many fights and was harassing girls. He drank a lot, used drugs and was violent.” “We don’t want such people back in Pikalevo,” said the person, who asked not to be identified for fear of retribution. “What kind of hero is he?”
LazyCommunist Member	Sat Feb 11 13:40:48 Why would you be so stupid to believe your own government? We all know that the USA is nothing but a bunch of liars! Half of our tanks lost, ridiculous! http://www...s-partners-are-key-to-defense/ Wallander was asked specifically about Russia's invasion of Ukraine. She said Russia's ground capabilities "have been significantly degraded," with tens of thousands of casualties and the probable loss of half of its main battle tanks.
jergul large member	Sat Feb 11 14:08:23 LC That is one of the reasons I sort of think the West wants the war to drag on. Ending it now on terms the regime can project as a victory allows the regime to use increased production rates, replacement and expansion needs combined with 500k youngish combatveterans (and counting) to give and almost rediculously enhanced Russian military by say the year 2026. You can say what you want, but combat operations is darwinist in terms of stripping away tactics, manpower and equipment that does not work, leaving what does to dominate the future armed forces. So, yah. Fighting until Russia losses the capability to bounce back and renew its forces based on what it has learned. Otherwise, all we are watching is Russia slowly dimilitarizing Nato.
	show deleted posts