Utopia Talk / Politics / SVB

Rugian Member	Fri Mar 10 09:56:10 Uh oh.
murder Member	Fri Mar 10 10:00:08 Uh oh indeed! WTF is SVB?
Rugian Member	Fri Mar 10 10:04:53 "Silicon Valley Bank is an American commercial bank. SVB is on the list of largest banks in the United States, and is the biggest bank in Silicon Valley based on local deposits. It is a subsidiary of SVB Financial Group. ... On 9 March 2023, shares of SVB Financial plunged more than 62% after the company proposed a share sale to shore up its balance sheet which had suffered a $1.8 billion loss on Treasuries due to rising [interest rates.][25][26] Trading of SVB shares was halted before market open on 10 March.[27]"
murder Member	Fri Mar 10 10:12:07 So they are just not going to allow people to sell their shares? That's just crazy enough to work!
Rugian Member	Fri Mar 10 10:14:47 Murder Please note those paper-only losses on SVB's existing Treasury holdings. Those are unrealized losses caused by those holdings having inferior interest rates compared to new Treasury issues. This is why taxing unrealized gains is so stupid. Gains aren't gains until they're realized.
Sam Adams Member	Fri Mar 10 10:53:55 Taxing unrealized gains is indeed retarded. SVB has assets of 200B... roughly 1% of us bank assets.
Sam Adams Member	Fri Mar 10 12:00:10 http://pbs...aIAIxBIf?format=jpg&name=large Lol
Rugian Member	Fri Mar 10 12:00:25 SVB is dead. "Silicon Valley Bank Closed by Regulators Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. takes control of tech-focused lender following run on deposits" http://www...e-sources-say-11de7522?mod=mhp
Rugian Member	Fri Mar 10 12:01:02 Lol Sam At least they were focused on the important things.
Rugian Member	Fri Mar 10 12:04:58 This shit is going to be systemic though. Rising interest rates hurt the asset values of anyone that has bonds or real estate on the books. Gonna be a ton of investment companies with stressed balance sheets pretty soon.
TheChildren Member	Fri Mar 10 13:26:29 chaina ghost buildins r a bubble and da companiez r going bust. chaaina banks will then follow suit. ..... but ofc just as always da westoids r gaslightin. da first bank that collapses, is another westoid bank in da real world.
murder Member	Fri Mar 10 15:40:39 Magoo PhD @HodlMagoo I just triggered a Finance Bro by saying: Not your Bank not your money. ============================== That doesn't make a damn bit of sense but lol anyway. :o)
Y2A Member	Fri Mar 10 21:54:14 sam and rugian falling for a short bs "diversity" blurb likely written by some irrelevant hr/marketing person. it's like they really believe the bs being sold to them by "conservative" media.
Y2A Member	Fri Mar 10 21:57:34 but yeah, clusterfuck.
murder Member	Fri Mar 10 23:36:25 Jim Cramer @jimcramer JP Morgan is a fortress http://twitter.com/jimcramer/status/1634222320398086145 =========================== Oh no!
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Sat Mar 11 15:42:27 lol http://twi...?s=46&t=CYhWz3k7xEhK_08avnT4-w SVB was named as one of the top banks of America, by Forbes like 5 days ago. The institutional bankruptcy is so much deeper and worse than this one bank.
murder Member	Sat Mar 11 17:00:43 That is chef's kiss. :o)
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Sat Mar 11 17:06:46 I am seeing it now, how diversity equity and inclusion hollowing out merit and skill will manifest. Things will break/bankrupt “out of the blue” that were audited as best in class, top of the line, top 10 whatever a week earlier. It will be slow at first and then all at once, can’t bail out everyone!
Pillz Member	Sat Mar 11 17:12:26 Elon Musk tweeted out that he is open to Twitter buying SVB
earthpig GTFO HOer	Sun Mar 12 00:40:19 So here's something fishy. "Fintech startup Brex received billions of dollars in deposits from Silicon Valley Bank customers on Thursday, CNBC has learned. The company, itself a high-flying startup, has benefited after venture capital firms advised their portfolio companies to withdraw funds from Silicon Valley Bank this week." https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/10/fintech-brex-got-billions-of-dollars-in-silicon-valley-bank-deposits-thursday.html The VC bros told their people to pull $ from SVB b/c of the MBS and bond devaluations caused by rising rates (JPOW's congressional testimony last week changed rate hike expectations from the then-new 0.25% a pop to 0.5% a pop). So an engineered bank run? Maybe? Cool. Do those VC bros stand to gain a great deal by Brex taking on all these deposits? How much $ do the VC bros have invested in Brex? "Other companies including JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley and First Republic also saw heightened inflows Thursday, as SVB’s stock tanked amid VC-fueled concerns of a bank run." "VC-fueled"... or VC created? IDK, call it a conspiracy theory. Sure. You can fault SVB for using customer deposit money for long-term non-liquid investments. Yes. If someone lends you $100 ("deposits it with your bank") with the understanding being that they can call that loan due at any time ("withdrawal from their checking account"), and you turn around and buy **10 year** treasury or mortgage bonds with it? Hmmm. I'll connect the final dot there, I know Rugian gets this and some others, and others do not. You invest $100 in a piece of paper for 10 years, paying 3% per year. So each year you get back $3, and at the end of year 10 you get your $100 back. You think you could sell it at any time for about $100, because hey there's some value in that $3/yr, and you're 4 years into it, so 6 years until that full $100 comes back, the other alternative is being at year 0 of 0. So there's some re-sale value of that piece of paper. Then pappa JPOW comes and raises rates. Someone can get a new piece of paper at 6%, otherwise the terms are the same. Ain't nobody gonna pay anywhere near $100 for your 3% piece of paper, when they can spend that same $100 and get a 6% piece of paper. So now your "$100" piece of paper isn't worth that, it's worth like $70. And when a shit ton of your customers show up to withdrawal money from their checking accounts? Whelp, they deposited $100 with you, and you purchased that $100 piece of paper, but it's only worth $70 now. BTW: for reporting/compliance/etc purposes ("stress tests" to ensure you're "sufficiency liquid" & are being a good shepherd of your customer's deposits, bla bla) , you don't have to update the nominal values of your pieces of paper. You can keep saying your $100 @ 3% piece of paper is worth $100, even when anyone can buy a fresh brand new $100 @ 6% piece of paper as a substitute good. It's like getting to say your 6 month old gallon of milk is still worth $5 when someone comes along to ensure your finances are in order. OK, so there's my off the cuff commentary 24 hours in. Let's see how stupid this post makes me, 3 or 6 months from now. :)
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Sun Mar 12 06:09:46 What I am hearing/reading is that SVB had a pretty big investment portfolio, 57% of total assets compare to 24% for your average bank. 78% was in mortgage backed securities which is more than twice that of JPM. So, they had a lot of exposure to interest rate and had not hedged against it all. Incompetent risk management is the story I am hearing.
Paramount Member	Sun Mar 12 12:31:10 Maybe George Santos works as risk analyst at SVB.
Sam Adams Member	Sun Mar 12 19:33:35 Another VC/crypto bank, about half the size of SVB, Signature out of NY, failed now too. Glad i didnt go anywhere near this industry. All the complexity of banks, few of the lessons learned.
Sam Adams Member	Sun Mar 12 19:35:11 Speaking of which i should move some serious money into government bonds i think. Before the fed gets spooked and lowers rates?
murder Member	Sun Mar 12 22:46:44 From the same side of the aisle that holds disaster relief hostage and has repeatedly threatened to destroy the US economy by defaulting on our national debt ... ============================== David Sacks @DavidSacks We’ve reached a point of political division where it’s fine to root for members of another tribe losing their bank deposits—even though you would protect members of your own tribe in the same situation. Be careful what you wish for because the shoe may soon be on the other foot. http://twitter.com/DavidSacks/status/1634972668536717313 ================================= He'll ask for it, but don't expect him to practice empathy after he takes his bailout.
murder Member	Sun Mar 12 22:50:09 I don't see the feds lowering rates any time soon. They are determined to take back the leverage that workers have gained the past couple of years.
murder Member	Sun Mar 12 22:54:55 http://twitter.com/MeidasTouch/status/1634777100350783489
murder Member	Sun Mar 12 23:21:48 "Libertarians" screaming for big government intervention is lol funny.
Pillz Member	Mon Mar 13 09:53:00 Dozens of smaller banks had trading halted. SVB and a second bank hsve been bailed out. The US is a fucking joke.
Sam Adams Member	Mon Mar 13 11:14:45 You could move to russia and bank there.
Sam Adams Member	Mon Mar 13 12:21:33 Markets moving sideways today. Panic over i guess.
murder Member	Mon Mar 13 12:38:55 Bank stocks are down hard. It kind of smells of crypto bros trying to crash the US financial system to pump their shitcoins. Just one more reason to ban crypto.
Paramount Member	Mon Mar 13 14:02:15 So it is three banks in five days now.
murder Member	Mon Mar 13 14:51:47 Which is the third bank?
Paramount Member	Mon Mar 13 15:05:23 Silvergate Capital?
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Mon Mar 13 15:32:11 murder SVB had gone balls to walls in long term US T-bills, they were exposed to tradi fi interest rates up to their nose with practically zero hedging of those risks. The reason crypto is pumping is because consensus now is that there will be no rate hike in march. A lot of rate sensitive stuff pumped based on that assumption.
earthpig GTFO HOer	Mon Mar 13 18:12:51 "Speaking of which i should move some serious money into government bonds i think. Before the fed gets spooked and lowers rates?" JPOW's "Coming of Age" was characterized by a Fed chair that halted rate hikes too early under public/media/political pressure, which was largely blamed for the stagflation of the 1980s. So I suspect he will error very very far in the other direction, perpetually being MORE spooked by being seen as another <guy before Volcker). Rather, he wants to be another Savior Prophet Chair Volcker. I actually know fairly little of Fed history -- that's the version I'm given to understand from listening to JPOW himself speak. I do not think 0 bps Fed rate hikes are in the near future. We just went from 0.25% a pop to possibly 0.5% a pop last week. I think going from 0.5% to 0.25% would be the next thing, not an actual rate drop, just a decrease in the increase.
Paramount Member	Tue Mar 14 13:44:40 King Dotcom explains why US banks are failing: US banks were provided with interest free money by the US Govt / FED for years to prop up the stock markets and to buy Govt bonds. The undocumented rule is that those banks which buy more Govt bonds get preferential treatment to access free money. The US banking system has become a tool for the US Govt to create the illusion of a strong economy by pumping the markets with Govt printed money and using banks to raise more debt. That only works for a limited time because the more money is printed the higher inflation rises. When inflation got out of control the US Govt / FED had to stop the interest free flow of printed money to US banks and increase interest rates. Banks which got used to making big profits by manipulating the market with free Govt money started to struggle without the regular fix. The US Govt bonds that US banks bought, including with depositor funds, to qualify for more free printed money are now toxic assets with the increase in interest rates and the demand for US treasuries drying up globally. That's what created the current crisis for US banks. In short, US Govt driven market and debt manipulation are to blame. President Biden said today that investors / shareholders of failed US banks will not be compensated because it’s their fault for making bad investments. In reality they are victims of the US Govt Ponzi scheme. In my opinion the US financial sector is in terrible shape, US markets are highly manipulated, US Govt bonds are now considered a toxic asset with international demand drying up and the future outlook for the US economy couldn’t be more dire. The total collapse is inevitable. http://twi...?s=61&t=C7YI8upxCqhyhPMRv9y0zg
murder Member	Tue Mar 14 14:45:17 Clearly an international criminal is the place to go for the lowdown on the banking system.
Sam Adams Member	Tue Mar 14 18:52:02 "King Dotcom explains" Rofl. My dog just took a shit with more brains.
Paramount Member	Wed Mar 15 02:15:20 Did I say King? Lol I meant Kim.
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