Utopia Talk / Politics / Ukraine: Russia finally captures Bakhmut

murder Member	Tue May 16 08:33:19 Not really. I just needed a title for the war thread and couldn't think of anything clever. Sorry. ;o)
jergul large member	Tue May 16 08:35:03 Well, Ukraine is still holding 3% of the town, so captured is indeed a very slight overstatement. Entirely in keeping with the spirit of the forum.
murder Member	Tue May 16 08:36:43 Any day now.
jergul large member	Tue May 16 08:45:03 When do you reckon Ukraine with capture Artemovsk? It currently has a 3% foothold in the town. Do you think the vaunted counter offensive will be able to take the rest of the town?
murder Member	Tue May 16 09:39:36 I reckon whenever we meet our obligations under the Budapest Memorandum.
TheChildren Member	Tue May 16 11:15:09 da town is useless. da real reason why da fightin is takin place there is coz everything else around it, is mud. mud where u sink up 2 ur knees in it. heavy equipment and u sink down 2 ur chest. this is why da fightin is takin place in da city. coz da grounds r paved and not muddy, da soil is not muddy. so da fightin naturally gravitated 2 that area by both sides. not coz da town is super important or shit. its just that urban warfare was doable there. nobody wants 2 take that town coz its useless rubble by now. fakenewsmedia understands nottin but i think they deliberately give u idiots this story that russia is failin becoz da ghost is personally protectin da town from russian incompetence...
jergul large member	Tue May 16 12:57:47 Para There is evidence one kinzal or iskander warhead intercepted on the 12 may. The patriots intercepted at least two things (or self destructed), but it was a complex attack, we dont know what those two things were.
Paramount Member	Tue May 16 13:15:16 Okay.
Paramount Member	Tue May 16 14:05:31 Moscow launched several 1 dollar dummy drones, and the patriot system started to engage them, revealing its position. Then Putin dropped his Kinzhal on it. Patriot got destroyed. See 1:22 and then 1:30 when Putin drops his Kinzhal on da Patriot. http://youtu.be/oepttcw5fMQ
TheChildren Member	Wed May 17 00:00:32 no chance in da hell any mach 2 missiles can stop mach 8 or mach 10 missiles. da math dunt match up. 1 mach is like 1200 or 2000 miles an hour. ur literally talkin about a human sayin he can intercept supaman. get outta here, da math dunt match up.
Seb Member	Wed May 17 03:50:00 Head on, that's not an issue.
jergul large member	Wed May 17 07:41:02 Well, documented ground explosion along with damage to one or more of the Patriot platform seem to prove Ukrainian claims on effectiveness are greatly exaggerated. Though fitting for Patriots pedigree of exaggerating its effectiveness significantly. I think I am going to land on Patriots having anti iskander/kinzal capability sometimes, but only with high missile expenditure (each missile has a low kill probability)
Seb Member	Wed May 17 07:54:28 jergul: Damage to one element of a patriot battery (they split the components all out). "each missile has a low kill probability" You can't infer that. If you launch 5 missiles at one target, only one will hit. You don't know that the PK is less than 100%, but you know that there is only a 5% likely that an individual PK is less than 45%
Seb Member	Wed May 17 08:29:28 Or something like that. Trying to do this while listening to a meeting.
murder Member	Wed May 17 10:21:55 "I think I am going to land on Patriots having anti iskander/kinzal capability sometimes, but only with high missile expenditure (each missile has a low kill probability)" It never ceases to amaze me that a seemingly intelligent individual has convinced himself that Russian weapons ... often warmed over Soviet era weapons ... are superior. Apparently the US in particular but also other western nations spend endless amounts of money year after year, decade after decade, researching a developing weapons that Russia can defeat by simply slapping a new paint job on an old system and claiming it's new.
jergul large member	Wed May 17 11:56:47 Murder What far superior? Ukrainian Soviet block stuff has a 0% chance of shooting down ballistic missiles. Patriot missiles (newest block) can do this under controlled conditions against hypersonic missiles on parabolic trajectories. Seb Likely more than one element of the battery. Its not like they are hard to find. Of course spread out.
Pillz Member	Wed May 17 20:53:14 http://www...tanks-in-ukraine-as-artillery/ Yes, Russia Is Using Ancient Tanks in Combat in Ukraine. But Not as Tanks. The surprising resurgence of the Soviet-era T-54 has taken a new twist. Headshot of Sébastien RoblinBY SÉBASTIEN ROBLINPUBLISHED: MAY 16, 2023
Pillz Member	Wed May 17 20:55:05 Utopia is now low intensity again due to me imploding the kingdom. But now there are two where before there was one. Anyways, just got off the phone with Putin and we will be raising the flag on Kiev on the 4th of july
Seb Member	Thu May 18 02:21:09 Jergul: We have one documented impact. And we know it's not the radar. US states the unit is still functioning and doesn't need to be withdrawn. So one non-critical element is what fits the available evidence. Khinzal is over rated. It's just an air launched ballistic missile with very limited manoeuvring and we know patriot can handle longer ranged (i.e faster) BMs. Sure making them air launched creates challenges if you are trying to do theatre defense because you can do attacks from weird vectors potentially for ING you at attempt intercept at right angles, but if you are doing point defence that's much easier - the relative motion transverse to the patriots direction of travel is limited and timing detonation isn't too challenging these days as it was in 1990s. Kinzhal isn't something like zircon. If I read the newspapers, they are claiming to have intercepted another round of attacks last night.
Seb Member	Thu May 18 02:27:26 "Patriot missiles (newest block)" They could do that in the 90s - scud re-entry speed was over Mach 5. True the iskander is a bit faster and so is the Kinzhal. But c. Factor 1.5-2. Radar fuses have got better still.
Seb Member	Thu May 18 02:32:06 Basically, the "unstoppable" hypersonic weapons are SCRAM jet manoeuvring cruise missiles. They fly flat trajectories, they require much more advance notice to be able to intercept, you have a difficult detection and tracking problem, and they can change direction in flight ruining your intercept solution. Hypersonic glide vehicles are also a pain (though less so). A blastic missile travelling at less than Mach 10 on a fixed trajectory isn't much of a problem if you have a point defence system close to the target.
jergul large member	Thu May 18 15:09:05 Seb They could not do it in the 90s. The US just claimed to have hit scuds. Fully debunked by Israel. Why would the US need to withdraw unhit components of the system? Patriots may be able to shootdown Kinzal missiles with enough missile expenditures (given a low kill likelihood), but that remains unproven. It can deal with Iskanders slightly more effectively. But sure, lets overhype the patriots again. It is the missile systems legacy to be highly overhyped.
Seb Member	Thu May 18 15:51:20 If they'd taken out the radar, the unit would be inoperable and need repairs. Sure. Unproven - Russia claims it fired six kinzhals (it disputes the figure of 18 saying not even a third). Where are impacts then? You've only got one and that could conceivably be an interceptor missile failing at launch. It's happened before. Here's the fact of it - Russia shot a bunch of missiles none of them hit anything important. And only the day before yesterday you were stridently arguing that you could count fixed wing drones that crash because they can't really do autonomous flight as examples of the efficiency of a layered air defense. The thing that's overhyped is the Kinzhal.
Seb Member	Thu May 18 15:53:42 As for patriot, though the US exaggerated efficacy there are examples of successful intercept. Enough to mangle the warhead, but fragmentary warheads still leave over a ton of material traveling at Mach 5. That leaves a crater.
Seb Member	Thu May 18 15:54:48 I mean that's why actual theatre BM defence missiles are htk not fragmentary.
jergul large member	Thu May 18 20:16:05 Seb It would need a new radar element if that was damaged or destroyed. It would still literally be true that the total system was only damaged, not destroyed. You have forgotten how the DoD lies. I have not. Where are the impacts? Well, Ukraine is prosecuting the 6 young people that separately shared footage on the attack on telegram. Its almost like Ukraine is using media blackouts to manage information flows and perceptions. http://new...HOFEtZ1Z8_H3psLbRfab3wq3vV-owC We know for a fact that Ukraine burned off more than 30 missiles over the course of a few minutes. That is the only thing we know for a fact. To me, this is a very strong indication that Ukraine attempted to preserve patriot assets by shooting and praying. It certainly did down some missiles in a complex attack involving several missile types and drones.
Sam Adams Member	Thu May 18 22:59:16 This must be very hard for jergul.
Seb Member	Fri May 19 01:35:21 Jergul: I see. So on your view the firm public statements that the attack was defeated and no meaningful damage done, combined with the complete lack of evidence to the contrary, is in fact a strong basis for asserting the contrary? "We know for a fact that Ukraine burned off more than 30" Against 18 tracks. Let's say they just used the patriots against the missile element of the attack that's 6 Kinzhal, 9 Kalibr and 3 s-300s 30 Vs 12 - say 3:1 against kinzhals and 2:1 against the cruise missiles and s-300. That sounds expected ratios.
jergul large member	Fri May 19 02:38:47 Sammy Why hard for me? I have been saying modern air defences equals lulz against airpower and missiles for decades now. Ukraine and Russia are proving this to be true. Seb Wow, you believe Ukraine releases like that still? I think Russia targetted the launchers, not the other components in a Patriot system. Specifically because it forces Ukraine to use or risk losing the missiles on hand. I have no idea how many launchers were supplied per battery, but it looks like 6 from what we know. So 10 platforms per system. There is no SOP ratio for using Patriot 2s versus hypersonic missiles. Just launch and pray. 2 per hypersonic launched at 4 second intervals is SOP for Pat 3s. Russia claims it destroyed 5 launchers and 1 radar. While within the realm of "damaging system", so there is a Venn diagram overlap between what the US and Russia is saying, this is likely also an exageration. I think the truth is somewhere between the claims. Some Russian missiles were shot down, some were not, but missed target for other reasons, some hit patriot elements. Not that the hits matter. Ukraine is not going to run out of system elements, it is going to run out of missiles. It is not sustainable for a Patriot system to expend all missiles on hand every time it is attacked.
Seb Member	Fri May 19 03:30:38 Is 18 an unreasonable number for an attack? We've seen attacks of that size. Why believe Russia would seek to attack patriot launchers with less than a large attack? You are just making up arbitrary reasons to select parameters that favour your narrative. "Russia claims it destroyed 5 launchers and 1 radar" We know that's unlikely true - osint folks have been tracking radar emissions. You couldn't hide a radar going down. 5 launchers based on what? You can't really hide that. I doubt it will run out of missiles.
jergul large member	Fri May 19 05:12:40 Seb 18 is an unreasonable number of Kinzhal missiles. They are high survivable. 6 seems about right if the goal is to force Ukraine to expend all of its missiles to protect the launchers and radar. Other missile types and drones were also used. As would be if the idea was to mount a complex attack. Radars are not up 24/7. Osing folks in Ukraine would go to jail if they tracked and published patriot radar emissions and informed the world when those were turned off. But sure, feel free to share your osint source that habitually informs us when Ukraine turns off their air defence radars. 5 launchers based on what Russia said. You know, the same level of evidence you are using when you rely on what Ukraine has said. 10k patriot missiles of all types for 240 launchers, of those, 1000 are upgraded or production PAT3s.
Seb Member	Fri May 19 05:38:21 jergul: 18 doesn't refer to Kinzhals though. It was 6 Kinzhals, 9 Kalibrs, 3 S300s and 6 shaeeds. The air defences would need to engage them all. "Osint folks in Ukraine" They aren't. They use raw data from commercial SAR carrying satellites to detect and localise radar emitters. "5 launchers based on what Russia said." We would have had footage of at least 5 very large ground explosions. We have 1. The idea that this can be supressed is implausible. "10k patriot missiles of all types for 240 launchers, of those, 1000 are upgraded or production PAT3s." You are assuming that all the missiles reported to be launched are PAC-3 / that there are no other missile defence systems in use around Kiev.
Seb Member	Fri May 19 05:44:33 Bottom line is, it's entirely plausible the attack involved 18 missiles. 18 missiles would not be a surprising number in a volley. It would certainly be consistent with your claim the Russian's were targeting the Patriot batteries. It is clear most of those did not cause substantial damage*, in contrast to prior attacks. It is clear that a missile, or at least a substantial part of one, impacted and damaged one element of a PAC system. It is clear c. 30 missiles were launched by Kiev's air defences. It is not clear they were all from patriot systems - and it would be surprising if other elements of Kiev's air defences were not used. It would be surprising if there are c. 4 to 6 other ground impacts that were not captured and shared. The ability to suppress this kind of information is. On that basis, it would appear that a substantial number of Russian missiles were shot down. *whether to their intended target or something else it hit accidentally
jergul large member	Fri May 19 06:57:22 Seb Ok, link me up to osint giving data on Ukr air defence radar downtimes. I am not assuming only Pac 3s were used. I am sure a substantial number were shot down. Patriots can deal with s-300ds and anything can deal with lol@subsonic kalibrs and drones. We already know about 75% of those fail to reach their targets in defended airspace. Not worth discussing anymore. We saw 30 odd launches in a very short window. Kalibrs and drones were unlikely to have been targetted in that window. The 30 odd launches were almost certainly Patriot missiles exclusively and almost certainly were targetting a s-300 kinzhal mix. Ukraine is remarkably good at suppressing information when that serves its purposes. The country has been under martial law for a while. Ukraine admits to 1 damaged, Russia claims 6 destroyed. The truth is in between somewhere.
Sam Adams Member	Fri May 19 09:52:57 There were 6 kinzhals. We can be reasonably sure of this, as it is claimed by both sides. Ukrainian sources came out first, saying they shot down 6. Shoigu the next day put out a press realease saying kinzhals destroyed 6 targets. We know there was some mix of other missiles. We know all or all but 1 failed to reach their target. So at least 5 kinzhals were shot down, failed on their own, missed, were decoyed etc... with being shot down the most likely scenario. We dont know what combination of air defense was used, some patriots were fired. This is a pretty impressive showing of NATO air defense... and is obviously quite improved vs the version that fought sadams scuds in 1991. Also rumors going around that the russian flight squadron that was schwacked the other day was shot down by patriots. Sounds like the public domain figure for range is quite a bit less than its actual range. Muhahaha.
jergul large member	Fri May 19 10:09:29 "We know all or all but 1 failed to reach their target." You do? How? We know the 30 missile barrage was all patriots against kinzhals or s-300ds. We also know the Patriot mix was in part unsuited to shoot down kinzals. This suggest a desperation move to preserve patriot assets. Or where you thinking Ukraine only has PAT3s? Buks and s-300ds engagement envelopes against targets they can hit take place earliers. It is exactly the same showing as agains Saddams scuds. Claims are taken as true by the guilable. Rofl at you buying the rumours Pats are shooting down things way outside their engagement ranges.
Paramount Member	Fri May 19 10:23:40 Ukraine shot down 8 of all 6 Kinzhals with a single shot.
Sam Adams Member	Fri May 19 11:13:40 "You do? How?" Lack of evidence despite the vast opportunity for evidence. Pwnt.
TheChildren Member	Fri May 19 11:27:19 like da uyghur genocide lies... 7 years later, not a single shred of evidence, mass fleeing refugees, not a single video of graves, in fact, wealth and life xpentancies increased in dat region as well as population!!! thousands of tourists r now visitin dat province and millionz of videos on tiktok and other sites... pwned urs a propaganda nation. and u messed up bad coz now everybody knows what lie, chjeat and steal is.
Paramount Member	Fri May 19 11:41:17 If you are an american and have a faint heart, don't click this. http://twi...tatus/1650149926943203331?s=20
jergul large member	Fri May 19 11:47:49 Sammy What vast opportunity for evidence? Ukraine arrested the 6 people that uploaded launch imagery (sentencing guidlines are 8-10 years). Like I said, Ukraine has been under martial law for a while. It may one day revert back to a democracy with civil liberties, but right now, it is being ruled by emergency powers.
jergul large member	Fri May 19 12:05:11 I would tie movement on F-16s to Patriot issues. Western air defences rely heavily on airpower. Patriot systems are supplemental. One thing is clear. The Ukrainian way of trying to shoot down Kinzhals and s-300s is prohibitivly inefficient. Frankly, you need aircraft to keep Russian aeroplanes from getting into Kinzhal launch range in the first place. The missile itself may have a range of 700 miles. http://www...hal-missile-is-not-hypersonic/ Not a horrible source. The main thing it forgets is that airlaunched Kinzhals have low air resistance at high altitudes. Its peak speed is therefore higher than its terminal velocity as air density lower has slowed it down.
murder Member	Fri May 19 14:23:41 "Like I said, Ukraine has been under martial law for a while. It may one day revert back to a democracy with civil liberties, but right now, it is being ruled by emergency powers." Some people call it being at war.
obaminated Member	Fri May 19 14:36:15 Yeah it's pretty funny that jergul keeps phrasing it as if the ukranian government decided to implement martial law for no reason.
jergul large member	Fri May 19 14:55:54 Murder and Obam Perhaps you see the problem with a perpetual war then? "Sure Ukraine is a crackpot dictatorship, but only until the war ends" will ring hollow at some point. But the point is that while Ukraine is at war, a lot of liberties we take for granted do not exist. Sammy's assumption of "if it happened, we would know" is false.
murder Member	Fri May 19 15:03:39 I see a problem with Russia attempting a land grab and destroying Ukrainian cities.
jergul large member	Fri May 19 16:05:20 We all see problems with Russia invading and occupying parts of Ukraine. I would be interested to hear your idea on minority rights in a post conflict Ukraine. That is sort of the big kicker. To be fair, the West and Ukraine are also contributing to destroying Ukrainian cities. We would contribute more, but sadly, most of our industrial base is in China.
murder Member	Fri May 19 17:01:03 "We all see problems with Russia invading and occupying parts of Ukraine. I would be interested to hear your idea on minority rights in a post conflict Ukraine. That is sort of the big kicker." My view is all Russians get the fuck out ... lest Russia have another or the same excuse to invade again. I think all eastern European nations should expel every Russian in their countries.
jergul large member	Fri May 19 17:39:15 Murder Well, the problem there is we frown on ethnic cleansing and citizenship rights are generally independent of ethniticity. In international law, the right to self-determination is based on where people actually are. So, unless you want to justify Russia's war, perhaps moderate your viewpoint somewhat?
jergul large member	Fri May 19 17:47:58 Any imaginable peace treaty that reasserts Ukrainian Soveregnity over non-crimean space would see most of the areas Russia currently occupies become demilitarized special regions with very specific protections of minority rights. Fair enough to defend against a war of aggression, but there are elements of self-determination rights for minority groups in majority in some areas that cannot be ignored. So, yah, there are things to talk about.
jergul large member	Sat May 20 05:05:29 Many explosions in Kiev last night. Whatever happened on the 17th seems to have significantly degraded Ukrainian air defences. Degrade in this sense does not have to mean destroyed. The patriot system may be waiting for more missiles, may be in process of repositioning, or may have repositioned, but did not want to activate system for whatever reason. Or possibly even just human error. Radar was offline because a wrong button was pushed or not pushed. Or the system has been damaged.
jergul large member	Sat May 20 05:13:03 I personally think Ukraine threw everything + the kitchen sink at the 17th May attack. So Buk, 300ds and Patriots are waiting for missile resupplies no matter what. The reason for this I think is Ukraine being very uncomfortable with static air defence platforms like the Patriot. Its Soviet era system survival into the 2nd year of conflict is attributable to mobility. An yah, the Patriot system was definitely damaged (more than one platform damaged or destroyed).
murder Member	Sat May 20 08:53:33 "Well, the problem there is we frown on ethnic cleansing and citizenship rights are generally independent of ethniticity." Yeah well we camn always choose to smile instead. "In international law, the right to self-determination is based on where people actually are. So, unless you want to justify Russia's war, perhaps moderate your viewpoint somewhat?" I'm not a lawyer and I couldn't care less about such nonsense. I don't feel the need to get into legalese or word games, and I don't feel the need to be consistent. I know the bad guys when I see them and I have no problem inflicting on them what I wouldn't inflict on others. There's nothing that could be said or done to justify Russia's aggression. "Any imaginable peace treaty that reasserts Ukrainian Soveregnity over non-crimean space would see most of the areas Russia currently occupies become demilitarized special regions with very specific protections of minority rights." Really? I can imagine a treaty where Russia is forced to stay on it's own side of the border, and areas currently occupied by Russian forces are armed with short range nuclear missiles to make sure they don't forget. "Fair enough to defend against a war of aggression, but there are elements of self-determination rights for minority groups in majority in some areas that cannot be ignored." They do have the right to self-determination. They can self-determine to pack their shit and move across the border.
jergul large member	Sat May 20 10:11:26 Murder Well, Sovereignity, borders and aggression are also artificial constructs defined by international law. The Romans would have called the SMO "Ukrainian pacification campaigns" and noone would have thought less of them for it. You and Zelenskij can both imagine many things, but a treaty needs Russia to sign it. My point is that there are ways to increase to overlap between what Russia will accept and what Ukraine will accept from nothing to perhaps a small sliver. A partially frozen conflict is not in Ukraines interests. Russia could care less from a developmental perspective at least. The economic pivot away from the West is permanent. High military spending is a given for decades to come. Russia has to renew its hardware regardless. Military payrolls and important part of why its economy is doing okish.
jergul large member	Sat May 20 10:13:20 Oh, and Wagner says it fully controls all of Bakhmut as of noon today. This frees up a lot of artillery supplies.
Paramount Member	Sat May 20 11:04:51 ”My view is all Russians get the fuck out ...” My view is that the white man should leave north america and return the land to the natives. Eastern Ukraine has historicaly had a Russian speaking population. Ethnic Russians been living there like forever. The cities were founded by Russians. It is Russian. ”Ukraine” is the western parts of the land. ”There's nothing that could be said or done to justify Russia's aggression. ” Yes there is. After the US led coup, Ukraine and Ukrainian neo-nazi groups started to attack and kill its own people. When the peace talks failed, Russia had to intervene in order to save and protect lives and to secure a secure future for the people. All people has the right to live in peace and security.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Sat May 20 12:35:14 All the Wagner drama was a ploy to confirm Western propaganda about a demoralized Russian army in disarray.
obaminated Member	Sat May 20 16:12:26 Took them 6 months to capture a town whose population prior to the war was 70k. I'm not sure how successful that would be considered.
murder Member	Sat May 20 18:33:11 "Well, Sovereignity, borders and aggression are also artificial constructs defined by international law." No I'm pretty sure all those things predate "international law". "You and Zelenskij can both imagine many things, but a treaty needs Russia to sign it." No, they just need to cleanse the land of Russians.
Turtle Crawler Admin	Sat May 20 23:26:46 The Wagner videos weren't for the west, they were for Russians, where they play really well. A smarter military strategy trades territory for time and position, but that's not how the Ukrainians ran the war, pumping everything into the city, that makes it's loss quite significant.
Seb Member	Sun May 21 01:47:19 Turtle crawler: You say that, but essentially it fixed the entire Russian offensive and a good chunk of Russia's reserves. And the Ukrainians have built up their offensive capabilities which haven't been deployed.
pillz Member	Sun May 21 01:57:45 "You say that, but essentially it fixed the entire Russian offensive and a good chunk of Russia's reserves." No it didn't seb. All it has done is eat up fix Wagner. Russian offensives have been continuing at various levels of (lower) intensity in Zaporozhia, Avvidka, and in Kharkov. Ukraine also hasn't built up anything and you know it.
jergul large member	Sun May 21 07:26:04 Seb The great russian offensive declared by the West that then failed when the West determined the offensive that happened did not meet the objectives the West had set for it? What Russia has actually been doing is probing (basically recon in force) most of the line of contact to leverage its artillery advantage. Offensive actions have been limited to capturing individual fields (Ukrainian agricultural land has treelines around them. That is where trenches typically are) to improve fighting positions. But this is micro maneuvres. There are 3 exceptions to this, one of them is bakhmut, the second Adievka, the third Marinka. Vuhledar was just Russian vehicles getting caught in the gray zone by antitank mines. As for fixing and degrading at Bakhmut. Here is Wagner's list of Ukrainian forces that have been involved: http://www...nian_units_that_were_fighting/
Paramount Member	Sun May 21 07:47:25 I must login to confirm my age in order to see that link.
jergul large member	Sun May 21 07:49:14 Well, log in and confirm your age then Or any age above 18. You may as well follow that subredit anyway.
jergul large member	Sun May 21 07:50:47 http://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/new/ Scroll down 20 posts or so.
jergul large member	Sun May 21 07:53:34 The Ukrainian advances on the flank were pretty obviously to cover the withdrawal from Bakhmut. That is the only way to understand quick Russian advances in Bakhmut recently. Ukrainians were falling back fast once the city had become unblocked. So not a bad extraction at all, though at a cost as these things always are.
Paramount Member	Sun May 21 10:42:55 I miss da days when u could just surf the web as a free and independent human being. Nowadays, u need an account everywhere, u need to give up your email and sometimes your phone number, bank account and your face and fingerprints.
jergul large member	Sun May 21 11:03:19 You can surf that link without an account. But you cannot read the comments. I would have taken you for a reddit guy btw. Colour me surprised.
Sam Adams Member	Sun May 21 11:05:12 Congrats russia. You did it! 9 months to take a town. Clap clap.
jergul large member	Sun May 21 12:43:45 Sammy Why did it fall though? I thought Ukraine had enough forces to mount a spring counter offensive (still 10 days left until summer. I am sure it will make it). Holding Bakhmut should have been trivial.
Sam Adams Member	Sun May 21 12:57:38 Why? Because the ukrainian army isnt good. 1 tenth the gdp of russia and in existence for only about 8 years... relying mainly on the handouts of NATO that is being cautious to not provoke a nuclear conflict. The fact that the entirety of russias armed forces took 9 months to take a town defended by the ukraine... thats the funny part. At this rate youll take kiev in about 600 years.
jergul large member	Sun May 21 13:05:35 Sammy By the entire Russian army, you mean Wagner? Even the entire Wagner was not committed to Bakhmut. It still has activities in Africa and the ME :). Kiev is not the goal. Grinding Ukraine to dust is pretty evidently the plan. And why not? It leverages superiority Russia has. The odd part is that Bakhmut fell at all once Ukraine decided to defend it in earnest. It should have had the reserves to keep Russia at bay. The counter offensive that unblocked the city was fine, but why so little, so late?
jergul large member	Sun May 21 13:06:35 The only thing the counteroffensive did was allow Ukraine to pull out of Bakhmut in more or less good order.
Paramount Member	Sun May 21 14:12:16 Wagner defeated Nato’s army in Ukraine. ”took 9 months to take a town” Ukraine kept sending its soldiers into the meat grinder for 9 months until they ran out of people to send. Why would Russia try to stop that? All that Wagner/Russia had to do was to kill them with artillery. Russia is no hurry, and I don’t think they wanted to ”interupt an enemy when it is making a mistake”. Life expectancy in Bakhmut for new recruits was like 4 hours.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Sun May 21 14:56:59 Did you just do a montage post of things Jergul has said over the last 3 months? You son of a bitch, you’re hired!
jergul large member	Sun May 21 15:36:05 Nimi :D. Para I don't know what the objective truth is, but I am pretty sure Russia those points to be the case. It is irrefutable that Wagner bought the Russian military a lot of time. Russia had to deconstruct is BTGs and restore regular brigade formations in so far as that is possible without mobilization.
Paramount Member	Sun May 21 15:36:41 I got it from Douglas MacGregor. But I remember I have seen Jergul saying similar things: That Russia don’t want to interupt Ukraine when they believe Ukraine is making a mistake.
Paramount Member	Sun May 21 15:51:21 Or maybe I got it from Jergul and then I heard Douglas MacGregor saying something similar. ”Kiev is not the goal.” - Jergul According to MacGregor Russia may see it neccessary to advance to the Polish border, in order to put an end to the influx of weapons. But MacGregor has also said repeatedly that Russia does not want to occupy/rule/govern western Ukraine.
Paramount Member	Mon May 22 13:16:59 Someone left a commemt in a youtube video i just saw: Why is Bakhmut called a Meat Grinder? Who was decimated in Bakhmut: Brigades: 45th Brigade 43rd Brigade 26th Brigade 28th Brigade 62nd Brigade 63rd Brigade 53rd Brigade 60th Brigade 24th Brigade 57th Brigade 30th Brigade Advance Rubizh Brigade Advance Azov Brigade Advance Uragan Brigade Advance Spartan Brigade 109th Brigade 116th Brigade 119th Brigade 241st Brigade 93rd Brigade 77th Brigade 46th Brigade 4th Brigade 17th Brigade 61st Brigade of Jaegers Special Forces and Spetsnaz Regiments: 5th Assault Regiment 8th Regiment of Special Forces Kraken Battalions: 122nd Battalion 68th Battalion 214th OPFOR Battalion 49th Rifle Battalion 15th Mountain Assault Battalion Omega Border Guard Donetsk 8th Regiment of the UDAR UAVs: Shershen Adam Karlsen Terra Skala Madyar Khartia Kep Seneka WASP Legions: Dudaev Battalion Georgian Legion Mansur Battalion Shamil Battalion Gonor Normandy Legion Most of these battalions have suffered more than 70% casualties just against PMC Wagner. The twenty five brigades listed above represents a force of at least 50,000 men (assuming only 2000 men in a reduced brigade) and as many as 125,000. At least 9 battalions and 5 regiments — that is 4500 and 5000 additional troops respectively. Do the math. If Ukraine deployed 134,500 troops to the battle for Bakhmut, 70% casualties means that Ukraine suffered as many as 94,150 killed and wounded.
Paramount Member	Mon May 22 13:20:41 Ukraines commander in chief killed/injured Commander-in-chief of Ukrainian Armed Forces said to be in critical condition after being wounded Valery Zaluzhny, the Commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces is reportedly in critical condition after being wounded. The suspected state of health of the senior Ukrainian military figure was announced by the Russian war correspondent Andrei Rudenko on his Telegram channel today, Saturday, May 20. He posted: “Rumors continue to circulate around the sudden disappearance of Valery Zaluzhny, the head of the AFU”. “As a media personality, Zaluzhny was constantly in the lenses of the Ukrainian and Western media. He is second only to Zelenskyy in the intensity of his TV appearances”. “However, since May 8 no one has seen Zaluzhny. General Naev is present at all the events which require the personal participation of the Commander-in-Chief”. “Even at the regular meeting of the heads of the military departments in Ramstein, where the critical issues of the supply of weapons and ammunition necessary for the upcoming counterattack were discussed for Ukraine, Zaluzhny did not participate even in the online format”. “According to our source in the AFU leadership, General Zaluzhny is alive but is in critical condition at the main military clinical hospital, where the fight for his life continues, including the participation of foreign specialists”. “On May 8, Zaluzhny was seriously wounded while at one of the control points of the Eastern grouping of the AFU in the Dnipropetrovsk region when he was checking the readiness of formations and units for a counterattack”. “During a missile strike on military infrastructure in the Dnipropetrovsk region, this control point was struck by a precise hit from a Russian cruise missile. As a result, a large number of high-ranking Ukrainian military officials, including General Zaluzhny, were killed and wounded”. “Information about Zaluzhny’s wounding was indirectly confirmed by the fact that on May 10 his wife, Olena, was seen driving from Novogospitalna Street to a Kyiv military hospital, where she spent more than four hours”. “To prevent panic among the AFU leadership and Ukrainian servicemen, information about Zaluzhny’s serious injury and critical health condition is being withheld. The Ukrainian special services were tasked with demonstrating Zaluzhny’s activity in every way possible while the fight for his life was going on”. “Hence the appearance in the media of all sorts of ‘useless’ interviews supposedly recorded recently or photos from the holiday of the Commander-in-Chief in Cyprus”. “You will agree that this is not a very good time to rest when preparations for the coming counteroffensive are in full swing. And the loss of Bakhmut is not a good situation either”. http://eur...condition-after-being-wounded/
pillz Member	Mon May 22 13:22:20 in 3 more months the next 50,000 will be ready, its OK
Paramount Member	Mon May 22 13:28:56 ” On May 8, Zaluzhny was seriously wounded ” If true, that’s five days after the drone attacks on Kreml, Moscow.
williamthebastard Member	Tue May 23 04:36:51 Is bringing the war into Russia a way to end this? It seems like drastic measures are needed, i.e. a focus on ending this war, else it'll end with 5% of the russian population being male and 0% of the ukranian
williamthebastard Member	Tue May 23 04:40:09 I would think it might be tactically possible to bring low level war into Russia at a level that cannot provoke nukes etc. but could really disrupt shit
jergul large member	Tue May 23 07:56:26 WtB What Ukraine does not want to provoke is a Russian mobilization. Mobilization releases all kinds of resources that are currently not available for the SMO. Demographic factors matter, but not in the way you think. Ukraine's fertility rate is currently ludicrously low. In the region of 0.55 (replacement rate is generally 2.1). ============= Well, looks like Russia believes the Bakhmut format is in its favour. It is moving to repeat the operation in Avdievka. The speed is due to arty munition flows. What went to bakhmut is now going to Avdievka. Arty munitions is the limiting factor for Russian pushes (not probes. Those use tanks as surrogate arty to bolster whatever artillery support is available).
Rugian Member	Tue May 23 08:01:13 "Well, looks like Russia believes the Bakhmut format is in its favour." Oh good. If they move as speedily as they did in Bakhmut, they'll be in command of eastern Ukraine by 2047.
jergul large member	Tue May 23 08:10:31 Ruggy Territory is more or less irrelevant strategically. For it to matter, Ukraine would have to want peace once territorial mileposts were passed. Such mileposts may exist (capturing Kiev for example), but those are not attainable for Russia. So the demilitarization of Nato continues. We are never going to replace reserve stock sent to Ukraine. We will eventually replace some of the front line material sent Ukraine. Does it matter? Well, yes. Ukraine shows that wars are fought with what you have. Everyone is dipping deep into cold war reserve material. Russia will eventually replace a lot of its reserve stock because that is what Russia does. Will Nato? Nope. Good for the US perhaps as you have more hardware stored away. M1A1s work good enough in a pinch. But for everyone else, standing force material = total force material. I am sure you will send us some old Abrams if we need them :).
Pillz Member	Tue May 23 09:58:35 Americans I've spoken to think this was a significant sign that the Russian boarder is open and a full scale invasion is coming!
Paramount Member	Tue May 23 12:46:43 The incursion has been taking care of. Looks like an Ukrainian stunt that costed lives for no real reason. What where they expecting? I doubt they expected to live longer than a day. Ukraine seems fond of throwing people into the grinder.
Rugian Member	Tue May 23 14:55:30 Jergul I'm really curious as to why you think Russia's purchasing power for new equipment exceeds NATO's. NATO members are stepping up their military spending and they have a sugar daddy (the US) who owns a metric fuckton of surplus equipment that it can offload to them. We have the ability to manufacture more artillery shells and Javelins if need be. Meanwhile, Russian GDP is now basically on par with Brazil, its operating under global sanctions, and its military-age population is getting absolutely chewed up in Ukraine (200,000 casualties so far and counting). Bottom line, I'm not worried about the West's equipment to arm itself.
TheChildren Member	Tue May 23 15:00:42 "Who was decimated in Bakhmut: Brigades: 45th Brigade 43rd Brigade 26th Brigade 28th Brigade 62nd Brigade 63rd Brigade 53rd Brigade 60th Brigade 24th Brigade 57th Brigade 30th Brigade Advance Rubizh Brigade Advance Azov Brigade Advance Uragan Brigade Advance Spartan Brigade " >> damn!!!
jergul large member	Tue May 23 15:22:23 Ruggy Well, part of it is backlog. Russia will have lots of crap it can and will repair and refurbish even after the conflict ends. Another part is active production lines for refit and new production. It is building for itself, so vehicle production cost payrolls support employment and fall under Russian tax regimes. Russian vehicles are also far cheaper to build, repair or refit. Most of all, Russia has the will to rebuild deep reserves. Nato will be mostly like you. "I am sure the US has something we can use if our standing forces need more materiell" Nato countries will buy and renew what they need for their standing armies, but will lose the deep reserves so critical to Ukrainian resistance. The old stuff, dusted off and put into combat with not much less efficiency than modernized equivalents. 22 600 confirmed Russia dead as of 12 of May. An understatement for reasons, but not by much. You can gauge the willingness to arm by what Taiwan is getting. There is a country that will really need to fight with what it has. How many millions of shells have you given it?
Seb Member	Wed May 24 01:41:29 Only jergul could look at the high failure rate of Russian equipment under combat conditions, the string of prosecutions in Russia for fraud by companies and procurement folk, and how a substantial chunk of Russia's new and best kit basically wound up being abandoned in he field due to logistical failures and come to the conclusion Russia can re-arm. The modernisation agenda of the last decade or so was clearly a monumental failure. Why do you think another one will be any better?
jergul large member	Wed May 24 02:13:48 Seb What does anything you wrote there have to do with re-arming? I take it that you agree in substance, but are merely arguing it does not matter.
Seb Member	Wed May 24 03:16:17 Jergul: Russia isn't going to successfully win an Arms race with Europe or the US. I mean look, it just spent a decade modernising its military with full access to global supply chains for high tech components; much of it didn't work as advertised (and probably never did) or had no maintenance, the logistics weren't there to support it, and it's being stalemated by a fraction of Europe's stocks, mostly stuff that's obsolete,expiring or mothballed. And that's after 15 years is military cutbacks and a couple of decades of peace dividends. But European countries are ramping up defense spending (Germany doubled its budget), there's dedicated focus on rebuilding arms supply, Poland is seriously rearming, and Finland's joined NATO. The idea the Russian invasion is demilitarising NATO is nonsense.
jergul large member	Wed May 24 04:03:41 Seb Russia has been under heavy sanction since 2014. I see no chance at all that Nato will build deep reserve stockpiles of hardware. Sorry.
Seb Member	Wed May 24 04:50:06 And under even heavier now. All that shows is that the idea that Russia is going to be able to re-build it's Feb 2022 military capacity is deeply implausible - and we know that was insufficient.
Paramount Member	Wed May 24 08:26:47 So what is the status of Russia? Either they suck, are weak, stupid, and can’t defeat the West, or they are compentent, strong, intelligent and will conquer the West. Which is it? Pick one. You can’t say they are both of the above.
jergul large member	Wed May 24 11:54:16 Seb You have mentioned nothing that relates to Russian post hot conflict force reconstruction. It will not rebuild its Feb 22 capacity of course. The BTG was a placeholder anyway, but a complete failure. Russia will rebuild, then expand its capacity on the brigade and division format. None of this gives deep reserves of course. But after force reconstruction, Russia will begin to replace T-72s B3 (obr. 202x) and MTLBs with new stuff and put those old things into deep storage. I have to say, the mtlb is a great surprise. What a robust and versatile platform. You can bolt anything to it and it trundles along without issue. Critical to logistics in a wider sense. Both Ukraine and Russia do. Originally produced at the Kharkiv tractor plant.
	show deleted posts