Utopia Talk / Politics / Ukraine can do no wrong

jergul large member	Fri Sep 22 04:58:36 Seb It is getting worrisome. Please find one thing the Ukrainian regime has done since 2013 that you find highly questionable. If Ukraine can do no wrong, then you have a deep religious conviction and discussing with fanatics is always trite and boring. Just something, anything. There has to be a falsification metric. Something Ukraine can do that you would not support. As to the rest. I did not see any new contribution in your last post, so I think we will just have do agree to disagree.
Seb Member	Fri Sep 22 05:40:12 jergul: "It is getting worrisome. Please find one thing the Ukrainian regime has done since 2013 that you find highly questionable." Sure. First send me a picture of you standing on the subway with your face painted purple and your head shaved. You don't get to set people random irrelevant challenges. We were discussing whether it would be wrong for Ukraine not to have elections in March next year. I have set out my arguments, and have pointed out my position and reasoning is widely shared by various international bodies that oversee elections and safeguard European electoral norms. My views are not weird and unaccountable (unlike yours) or divergent from mainstream thinking on this matter as to require some explanation like reflexive support for whatever Zelensky does that then requires falsification. I don't know why you want to look at other, irrelevant, things Ukraine may or may not have done wrong - but it is not a discussion I'm interested in having with you. It would just be another transparent diversion.
jergul large member	Fri Sep 22 06:23:13 Seb It is a highly relevant request. The post Maidan Ukraine was a fledgling democracy with a very high corruption rating nationally and many, many internal frictions. The challenge here is for you to establish that you have falsification criteria. You do not blindly support Ukraine at any cost. It ultimately goes to good faith discussion. Is there any reasoning with you, or are you just a religious fanatic engaged in a jihad?
jergul large member	Fri Sep 22 06:26:56 It also goes to repriocity. You constantly invite me to say something bad about Russia and I always oblige you. Because why not? There are lots of bad things to say about Russia.
jergul large member	Fri Sep 22 06:31:42 I am incidentally not the only person here that suspects you may have more than a few religious overtones to some of your convictions. I am just asking you to play the devil's advocate (as an academic, that should be 2nd nature to you) and find something. Anything.
jergul large member	Fri Sep 22 06:34:53 Conformity is incidentally not a western humanist virtue. It belongs to time periods predating the modern era. Normal is not good in intellectual debates.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Fri Sep 22 06:37:36 Seb "I don't know why you want to look at other, irrelevant, things Ukraine may or may not have done wrong" Say you find out that Jergul has a BSc in Russian history and language, in other words, is a Russophile with an accredited degree. Would that explain his antics around Russia?
Seb Member	Fri Sep 22 06:40:14 Jergul: "The challenge here is for you to establish that you have falsification criteria. You do not blindly support Ukraine at any cost." Yes, and the bit I'm confused here is why I need to falsify every stupid, irrelevant and unnecessary theory you come up with. Stop with the deflecting and whattaboutery.
Seb Member	Fri Sep 22 06:43:00 Nim: "Would that explain his antics around Russia?" It might. But Jergul has a string of double standards and incoherent policy positions that invites such an explanation. Meanwhile jergul wants to move the subject into some other random thing Ukraine has done badly, when we were discussing whether it should open negotiations for surrender of further territory and whether its government was illegitimate.
jergul large member	Fri Sep 22 06:43:58 What deflection and whataboutery? What part of the thread title and agree to disagree did you not understand?
jergul large member	Fri Sep 22 06:50:36 Nimi You have mail Seb I am pretty sure your perception of my double standards are objectively unfounded. The issue is mostly that I don't virtue signal and you never enquire more deeply into my critique of things you agree with. That is a problem. You should intellectually challenge thoughts that confirm your bias too. In this case, it warps your perception of what I am actually saying.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Fri Sep 22 06:54:16 "But Jergul has a string of double standards and incoherent policy positions that invites such an explanation." That is true, but he has been very consistent in providing "nuance" on every matter pertaining to Russia. In that regard he is whatabouting consistently against the west and western ambitions. Be it Iran, Syra, China, Russia. Of course the contents will reveal hypocrisy on specific issues. But the man is a hypocrite. He will argue incessantly against rural living, then buy a farm. He has 3 children and preaches for everyone else to have fewer. And like these are the details we know about his personal life, I am sure there are many more instances. Am I the only one paying attention??!?
jergul large member	Fri Sep 22 06:59:06 Let me help you. We know that with the establishment of the CoE, England's catholic past was physically destroyed. In retrospect, we might think it would have been better if many of those heritage sites had been preserved. This despite the many wrong-doing of the Catholic church globally throughout time. For better or for worse, the USSR played an important role in Ukrainian history and many Ukrainians were instrumental parts of that project, while many others sacrificed their lives or have relatives that did so during what was called the great patriotic war. Ukraine today is erasing all reference to both sacrifice and involvement. Can you see that this might be overreach, at least from some future, retrospection?
jergul large member	Fri Sep 22 07:04:21 Nimi You are not paying very much attention. My arguments against rural living relate to the limitations and dangers it holds for young people. Sadly, I am no longer young. There is no inconstency to my buying a farm and perhaps I might even contribute to making it better and safer for the young people here anyway. I have never said that people should have less children. I think everyone in the West should have as many children as they like (and that in developing countries, support should be available so people do not need children for practical reasons and thus can also follow their inclinations). But there are some fucking huge upsides to generally decreasing population pressure on this generation ship we call home. Stunning that you cannot see that.
jergul large member	Fri Sep 22 07:08:38 I am happy to discuss myself here. But you might want to recognize the irony of citing whataboutism as that topic is now whataboutjergul :).
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Fri Sep 22 07:11:48 Jergul Do you think it is an overreach when people take down statues of confederate generals in the USA?
jergul large member	Fri Sep 22 07:19:24 I do. National amnesia is not a virtue. Though I do not feel strongly about it. Statues of individuals are not important. I have no issue with Ukraine taking down statues of individual Soviet leaders and would support taking down those prone to hero worship.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Fri Sep 22 07:21:22 I am not getting into that discussion again, I topped the thread I was taking about, all your arguments were about it being bad for the environment. You then added, specifically, it being bad for young women. "I have never said that people should have less children." Another bald faced lie. Apart from continuously talking about 400 million being some "optimal" population level, you have repeatedly said literally those things and things to that effect, have children, but why not 2 instead 3, why not 1 instead of 2". Is pretty much a verbatim quote by you. That is in addition to the passive glimmer in your eyes reading about collapsing birth rates. Just stop it. "Stunning that you cannot see that." I don't believe in conspiracy theories and have a completely different view. This planet isn't a ship, it's increasingly obvious it _is_ the life raft. And you are sharing it with all kinds of crazy people who get into really heated arguments and several of them are holding hand grenades.
jergul large member	Fri Sep 22 07:21:56 Truth and reconciliation is founded on the principle of collective memory, not erasure. Pretending is never happened is not a good solution.
jergul large member	Fri Sep 22 07:27:46 Nimi How do you read my saying people should think about how many children they want meaning I think they should have less children than they want? "I think everyone in the West should have as many children as they like" I stand by that as my consistent view. Now, if you want to discuss what actually bothers you about it then sure. Let me formulate it for you: Nationally, birthrates vary by social and cultural strata. This means that society will change for the worse unless we standarize birth rates more. Some demographics really need to step up their game. The abortion thing is different. None of us think abortions are a good idea. Lets leave it at that.
jergul large member	Fri Sep 22 07:28:53 Dont quote me out of context again please if you wish to engage in a good faith discussion. I am happy to play dogpile too if you like. I warn you that my smugness while doing that will vex you to no end.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Fri Sep 22 07:31:42 "jergul large member Fri Sep 22 07:19:24 I do. National amnesia is not a virtue." Very sad, that you didn't provide the nuance you always have in store for Russia, here: http://utopiaforums.com/boardthread?id=politics&thread=88556 "National amnesia is not a virtue." History isn't the same as the narrative for your national ethos. People should be encouraged to be selective about the latter. Like really.
Paramount Member	Fri Sep 22 07:37:19 From the other thread ”Ukraine cannot offer protection of polling stations against air attack” Ukraine only needs to stop shooting their rockets so that there is no risk of their rockets falling down on polling stations, on markets, or on churches and other civilian buildings.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Fri Sep 22 07:40:48 "Truth and reconciliation is founded on the principle of collective memory, not erasure. Pretending is never happened is not a good solution." What a spectacular cart before horse scenario 1,5 years into the Russian invasion of Ukraine :) "How do you read my saying people should think about how many children they want meaning I think they should have less children than they want?" Not what you have said though. And the totality of all the things you have said on the matter is pretty clear and pointing in one direction. "discuss what actually bothers you about it then sure." I am just confronting the spreading of misinformation and dangerous ideas. I mean as I have said, even recently, all these anti-life ideas are floating around in the most liberal and woke of brains. Even abortion and trans-sterlization. It is evolutionary self-purging to hold ideas anti-thetical to the survival of your lineage. With that said, I am just explaining to seb, that you being a hypocrite has a distinct pattern and not exclusive to Russia topics.
Daemon Member	Fri Sep 22 08:27:28 It does not matter what you think Ukraine has done wrong, the Russian invasion is still not justified. In this way this thread is a waste of time. If Ukraine loses this war, it will not justify the Russian invasion and Putin remains a criminal and a mass murderer. If NATO falls apart then Russia will attack more European countries after Ukraine, I have no doubt about it. I'm no friend of the Ukraine, before the invasion I did not care much about the Ukraine. In a way I still don't care much about the Ukraine. But I care very much about the criminal Russian imperialistic invasion and I want to see it fail and I want to see Putin liquidated by his own people.
Paramount Member	Fri Sep 22 08:44:35 From their viewpoint it is justified. Just as the invasion of Iraq, the invasion of Vietnam, or the bombing of and the partition of Serbia or the bombing and the destruction of Libya was justified by the Americans and the Brits.
Daemon Member	Fri Sep 22 09:05:54 Paramount, sure it is justified from an imperialistic viewpoint. But that's not a viewpoint that I will accept. And you should not accept that either.
jergul large member	Fri Sep 22 09:16:42 Nimi Such loaded language. Its almost like you are emotionally invested. Gauge your audience. Never be emotionally engaged (an ideal. We all slip up sometimes). Your perceptions of hypocracy simply shows us the tint of your reading glasses. Do I think you or seb are hypocrites? Not really. I make certain assumptions about why people post here and what draft version their posts are. You both post crazy assed shit here in contradiction to your lives all the time. Sure, you could view it as well thought out hypocracy. Or you could think of it as the first draft of thoughts you and seb want to explore and have challenged. Either perspective is wrong as the truth is somewhere in the middle. But one version has vastly more faith in humanity. Daemon Indisputably. No one is trying to justify the Russian invasion. It is permanently wrong and Russia should be permanently punished for it. So, sure, a waste of time. But a fun waste of time. Exactly like all the other discussions in this forum.
jergul large member	Fri Sep 22 09:27:48 I would also add that I dispute that hypocracy is a bad thing. The duality of man. Every good thing has strong mismatching elements making up a whole. Using a claim of hypocracy to undermine an argument is an axiomatic adhom debating fallacy. It is simply not relevant in most cases. Consistency is a virtue. It is nice that there is coherence to an argument. So that, you know, you don't come across as batshit crazy.
obaminated Member	Fri Sep 22 10:52:54 I thought it was already accepted as fact that jergul is a "pro rus bot" or at least was at some point in the past. It was sorta proven back in June when Wagner marched on Moscow and the internet was entirely silent from the pro rus bot crowd because they were not given any instructions or talking points. anyways, jergul does follow the talking points of pro rus bots that exist in large numbers on reddit and YouTube. Like. Literally he either gets the same talking points or he follows the crowd. The only talking point I never saw jergul parrot was to call Ukraine a terrorist state for using drones to bomb Moscow. But that never gained any traction. The current talking point for pro rus bots boils down to "Ukraine has a lot of skeletons in its closet and the west wouldn't support it as much if the west knew about them" also followed with "Ukraine cannot be allowed to suspend elections, if they do then the west must stop supporting them" and what a shock, jergul is hitting the same talking points. Not sure if he is still actively paid by the Russian government to spread pro rus propaganda on the internet but his consistently parroting the same talking points at the same time is uncanny.
obaminated Member	Fri Sep 22 10:55:04 post script - we can extrapolate from the current talking points that Russia is fully aware they are going to lose this war if the west continues to support Ukraine.
jergul large member	Fri Sep 22 11:15:04 Obam You seem very informed of rusbot talking points. Are you some kind of sleeper agent, or is your role simply to discredit the West through the force of oddities in you internet persona?
obaminated Member	Fri Sep 22 11:41:37 Stop wondering jergul, your betters will tell you what to focus on.
jergul large member	Fri Sep 22 11:49:56 Obam Since you missed our last rusbot meeting (where were you, brat/bro, I missed you :(), I will give you the new party line/algorythm The reason sanctions on Russia should be permanent is due to the irreversable nature the invasion created. Most parts of what Russia currently holds will never be returned because the people there do not want to be returned to Ukraine any more. If we dispense with Trump's plan to end the war in 24 hours and Ukraine's maximalist goals as equally unrealistic (Ukraine's goal can only be met by regime change in Russia), then the exit is referenda. Russia orchastrated this and should forever be punished for it.
Seb Member	Sat Sep 23 01:12:03 Well. Black sea fleet HQ better move.
obaminated Member	Sat Sep 23 01:35:12 Further proof that long term, Russia is doomed and as such they desperately need to convince the west to stop supporting Ukraine because ukraine's arsenal and striking capabilities will only increase.
Paramount Member	Sat Sep 23 03:14:31 I’m sure that Russia will just sit there and watch as Nato attacks them.
Seb Member	Sat Sep 23 06:57:48 Paramount: It has so far. And what's it going to do? It's got it's arse handed to it with the seats Wests cast offs. It's in no place to study a conventional war with the west. And a nuclear one would end with Russia's destruction. So, what are its options? It's pretty clear now (even jergul admits) that it is merely prolonging the war to do as much damage to Ukraine as possible because it has no better options. At this point it would be a mercy for Russia if NATO directly took over security responsibilities for Crimea and Donbass with international observers from a country Russia trusts like China. It's not like they can use Crimea as a naval base anymore.
Seb Member	Sat Sep 23 06:58:26 Time for a new screen protector
murder Member	Sat Sep 23 07:10:23 This wasn't the result of some subsonic missiles, was it?
jergul large member	Sat Sep 23 09:51:15 Seb Attacking a Soviet era command facility is unlikely to have caused casualties. It has a massive bunker complex. A case of showmanship to mold perception. Unfortunately, in this case molding the perception that Russian brass is in the line of fire, just as common frontline soldiers are. So ultimately, just a teambuilding excersize for the Russians. A bad idea in that sense as the war will be won or lost on frontline soldier moral. From a military standpoint, it would have been better to attack something less photogenic, but with direct relevance to the southern offensive and with a higher chance of actually causing serious harm to Russian command and control. But the PR component of the war is also very important. Sometimes Ukraine has to improve Russian frontline soldier morale to convey the impression of success to its Western backers. Obam Ukraine is passed the highwater mark on weapons, ammunition and soldiers. Seb BRICs+ members are the only barriers to the use of tactical nukes if we discount Russia not wanting to use them for doctrinal and moral reasons too. Ukraine is not under a nuclear umbrella. Russia has other options. It could for example actually go on a war footing, declare martial law and mobilize like Ukraine has. But why? It is likely to achieve an acceptable outcome (from its perspective) through attritional warfare anyway. At less cost and with less disruption of Russian society and economy. At this point, it would be a mercy if Ukraine and Russia started talking. Murder What success rate is Ukraine citing against rofl@subsonic missiles? Complex saturation attacks monopolizing extreme amounts of satelitte and signal capacity can hit a target now and then. But I will moderate my views. I never imagined UAVs being used enmass in combination with rofl@subsonicmissiles to help overwhelm air defence capacity. Increased utility for a 1 million dollar cruise missile compared to a 20k drone is quite small. Cost is a placeholder for complexity and relative volume of production limitations.
Paramount Member	Sat Sep 23 10:28:15 ”And what's it going to do? ” It could give the US and Britain an ultimatum. The next Nato missile that hits Russia will be viewed as a declaration of war. Then it will be up to the US and Britain to decide whether they want a direct war or not. Russia could destroy Britain and much of the US if it comes to it and need be. The problem with the americans and the brits is that they don’t listen to what Russia is saying. Or, they may listen with one ear but their arrogance and belief in that they are untouchable/invincible prevents them from grasping the meaning of anything. Russia been warning you about expanding Nato to Ukraine for years. Did you listen? No. Now Russia been warning you for over a year that your proxy war against Russia risks resulting in direct confrontation between Nato and Russia. Are you grasping it? No. You keep brushing it aside thinking you are untouchable and that they don’t mean what they are telling you because they are too weak or unwilling to do anything about it. Russia's patience is not infinite. Russia can also decide it has to advance to the polish border to put an end to Nato’s attacks on Russia. The Ukrainian army is no longer what it was in 2022. Even then it was no match for Russia. It got pulverized, Ukrainians willingly threw themselves into a meat grinder thinking WHY NOT because the US/Britain told them they would win. Now it has been destroyed more or less and the morale is now very low and they are dissapointed with you and angry at Poland. If you still want to keep attacking Russia when Russia is at the polish border you will then have to do it from Poland I guess. To the last Pole or to the last Brit, what will it be? Advancing to the polish border, is this something that Russia prefer? No, they would prefer that Nato comes its senses and accept that Ukraine will be a neutral country. But the US/Britain won’t give them any other option than to advance to the polish border. And the US/Britain will let it escalate to a nuclear war because the leaders in the US and Britain have lost their minds. ” At this point it would be a mercy for Russia if NATO directly took over security responsibilities for Crimea” Why is it that you and Nato is so horny about Crimea? Why do you want Crimea so badly? If you want to steal Crimea from Russia I think you will first need to survive a couple of thousand nuclear missiles. If anything remains after that then I guess you can try to make a claim on Crimea if it’s still worth having by then.
jergul large member	Sat Sep 23 10:35:39 Para It would be up to Ukraine to decide if it wanted a direct war between Russia and US/UK or not under the ultimatum scenario you designed. What do you think Ukraine would want? I am pretty sure Russia really, really does not want to face insurrections of a scale it would if it advanced as far as you suggest. That is one way Russia could really lose the war long term. Russian occupation is constrainted by Ukrainian demographic composition as much as it is by frontline fighting. Huge areas of Ukraine are unoccupiable over the medium term.
obaminated Member	Sat Sep 23 10:37:59 http://www..._image_of_the_consequences_of/ Please note jergul's argument that it was a waste of time and a glorified PR attack. What are pro rus bots saying? "yeah that old empty building was flexing on US for far too long. it was about time to bring it down." ... "spin it from what? is there confirmed information out there that someone was in the building?" ... "yes - Russia promptly announces death of its higher commanders whenever it happens. They have been doing that since start of the SMO - we do not have such announcement mow. Its only pro US crowd throwing BS around" ... "Post 586 about Ukraine wasting 7 nato missiles hitting a nonessential building with zero influence on the frontlines. I get it that during the last 4 months Ukraine have nothing to be happy about but this attack is not gonna help the force drafted soldiers that are getting slaughtered by artillery in the trenches. Maybe they should have targeted an ammo dump or supply line instead of this propaganda ops" .... I think you guys can now see why its all but confirmed that jergul gets the same talking points memos as these pro rus bots. And it happens everytime something significant happens. You can go to reddit, go to that sub and see pro rus bots say a consistent talking point phrased and various ways, come over here and see jergul repeat the same talking point. And it's easy to determine which is a pro rus bot based on account age and activity. A lot of them went inactive when Wagner turned on Russia because apparently Wagner had a pro rus bot farm running for pr.
Paramount Member	Sat Sep 23 10:46:20 ”It would be up to Ukraine to decide if it wanted a direct war between Russia and US/UK or not under the ultimatum scenario you designed.” But if the US and Britain wants to avoid a direct war with Russia, they could then collect all the missile launchers that they have supplied to Ukraine. Then the decision won’t be Ukraine’s.
jergul large member	Sat Sep 23 10:51:01 Para So the ultimatum is actually "Disarm Ukraine or we will declare war"?
Paramount Member	Sat Sep 23 10:59:56 ” I am pretty sure Russia really, really does not want to face insurrections of a scale it would if it advanced as far as you suggest. That is one way Russia could really lose the war long term.” That may be true. But what if Russia do what Israel does – build walls and barbed wires around Ukrainian cities to contain the people inside. Russia would naturally control the outside, the border to neighboring countries, and the airspace. The Ukrainians would then be free to do what they want inside of the walls. They could live their lives in peace if they chose to do so. But if any Ukrainian objects to it, or tries with anything, then Russia could just bulldoze their homes or shoot a missile at them.
jergul large member	Sat Sep 23 10:59:58 Obam Stating the obvious is going to have mulitple people doing it. Flip it. How fucked would Ukraine be by now if hitting facilities with soviet era hardened command and shelter bunkers mattered? Do you feel the Russian strike on the Ukrainian GRU HQ was a huge and dramatic Russian success, or was it a pointless punitive attack that wasted an asset that could have been used elsewhere? My actual argument was that the important PR event (and PR is tremendously important to Ukraine's war effort) not only has opportunity costs, but is actually a teambuilding exersize that boosts Russian frontline soldier morale.
Paramount Member	Sat Sep 23 11:02:46 ” So the ultimatum is actually "Disarm Ukraine or we will declare war"?” Or, stop attacking Russia or we will respond in kind. The best way to stop the attacks would be to disarm Ukraine, which is what Russia is doing. The US/UK could help if they want to avoid war.
jergul large member	Sat Sep 23 11:02:47 Para Why in God's name would anyone want to emulate what Israel has done except on a scale magnitudes larger? You answered your own question.
jergul large member	Sat Sep 23 11:04:11 So the war starts 2 minutes after Russia gives the ultimatum. An ultimatum that is impossible to comply with is simply a short prewarning of what you will be doing no matter what.
Paramount Member	Sat Sep 23 11:08:20 Russia could give the ultimatum directly to Biden and Sunak so that Ukraine won’t know about it. Then it is up to them to collect the missile launchers from Ukraine or not. It could be tricky but if they really want to avoid a direct war I think they can do it.
jergul large member	Sat Sep 23 11:10:41 Para Biden and Sunak do not have people in Ukraine that could collect the launchers. Even if they did, how do you expect that to happen? A CIA agent walks up to a HIMAR operator as says "carkeys please"?
murder Member	Sat Sep 23 11:32:11 "What success rate is Ukraine citing against rofl@subsonic missiles?" I don't know, but that's not even remotely relevant. Anyone can claim whatever they want to, but rofl@subsonic missiles get through. That should have always been obvious since if they didn't, the most well funded military force in the world wouldn't waste their money on them.
jergul large member	Sat Sep 23 11:55:06 Murder Complex saturation attacks work. They get through. But not cost effectively. The Crimean raid a case in point. If we discount PR, then you saw a 5 million dollar attack damage an old building of historical note. I say that because Russia will repair it and it will cost more money because skilled artisans will be doing a lot of the repair work. The missiles do have their uses beyond that. Pinpoint strikes against savages. You know, that kind of warfare. But they are too slow and lack survivability. They will always have a role now that we see how UAVs pair nicely with them. This means cruise missiles can be used after peacetime stockpiles have been depleted and missile density is based on current production (which can never be high). But most well funded military forces in the world are putting a lot of money into hypersonic (terminal phase) for a reason too. Exceptionally expensive missiles need to have exceptionally high survivability.
Paramount Member	Sat Sep 23 11:59:33 Russia will finish this war http://youtu.be/GC_H1Y1GOGY
murder Member	Sat Sep 23 12:29:17 Even antiquated cruise missiles have tiny radar cross sections. Well selected targets and well planned missions make them very hard to intercept. I know you believe in magic Russian air defenses, but insisting that every time Ukraine blows something up it's the result of a saturation attack is silly. Ukraine has a limited supply missiles of all sorts. And even with magic air defenses, Russia can't possibly have layers of air defense defending every point on the map.
murder Member	Sat Sep 23 12:33:42 Comrade Macgregor is having a bad day. :o)
jergul large member	Sat Sep 23 12:40:22 Murder Well planned missions are by definition saturation attacks. Remember the context for rofl@subsonic missiles. Tomahawks versus Syrian bases. Missiles were hitting targets, but just not very effectively. There is a reason the US fired 57 of them. The airfield opened for operations again the next day. Nothing magic about Russian air defences except their depth and coverage. Ukraine has the same thing using more and more Western hardware. The scramble now is for affordable air defence missiles, high survivable cruise missiles (supersonic maneuvrable terminal phase), cheap cruise missiles (aka moped motor drones), and volume production of the conventional types (which means streamlining and more production lines). Swarm tactics is more an advance that lessens the administrative overhead in preparing and planning complex saturation attacks.
jergul large member	Sat Sep 23 12:44:45 Ukraine's desire for F-16s goes to the affordable part. Its current fighters are ill-suited to drone interception and there has been several incidents where the drone ended up downing the fighter. It is not actually very affordable, but it is more flexible. I am not bashing Ukraine. Russia also uses fighters for air interception duties versus drones.
jergul large member	Sat Sep 23 12:55:14 Here is a more academic presentation on why I think it is time for Ukraine to start talking: http://for...ing%20the%20damage%20will%20be Oh and Obam, when have I ever called for arms support to Ukraine to lessen? Thinking it will does not mean I think it should.
murder Member	Sat Sep 23 13:13:38 "Remember the context for rofl@subsonic missiles. Tomahawks versus Syrian bases. Missiles were hitting targets, but just not very effectively. There is a reason the US fired 57 of them. The airfield opened for operations again the next day." Because warheads only do so much damage, and there were multiple targets to destroy. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Shayrat_missile_strike
Seb Member	Sat Sep 23 13:14:56 Paramount: Ukraine has Western missiles, we can't control them. Russia has long armed the enemies of the west. Bombs that blew up in London used explosive manufactured in the Soviet Union. Russia can only make that ultimatum in the knowledge that they will have no choice to follow through; and that the west had no ability to meet it. If it was taken seriously, the only reasonable move would be an immediate nuclear counterforce strike on Russia.
jergul large member	Sat Sep 23 13:25:32 Seb By counterforce, you mean pre-emptive, right?
jergul large member	Sat Sep 23 13:50:57 Murder Like I said, not very effective. Though ty for documenting the use of cluster munitions in the attack. I had not thought about that before. I am just saying why I started to think in terms of rofl@subsonic missiles. Not enough bang for buck. Fair enough in low intensity conflicts, but in high intensity ones, you will run out of missiles due to how they have to be used. My view is moderated somewhat by the emergence of complex attacks using very affordable cruise missiles (20k drones with moped sounding engines). It helps bring down the average cost of vehicles used in complex saturation attacks. 10 mostly (if not all) defunct aircraft is not that great. At least now you will understand how Russia gets its kill tally for Ukrainian aircraft. It too also counts defunct aircraft laying about. ukrain inherited 1000nds from the USSR.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Sat Sep 23 13:54:02 Just so this doesn't disappear in this captivating discussion you are having. Jergul is not some dime a dozen rusbot. He in fact holds a BSc in history and Russian language. That is a commitment level you people need to acknowledge and respect. He is not LARPing on this one, it's real.
jergul large member	Sat Sep 23 14:03:27 Rofl@fuzzystudies even if true. I will accept the use of the authority adhom only in matters pertaining to trawling. ================== Russia repeated it is ready for talks (but no ceasefire) without precondition. It thinks the first step now is for Ukraine to unban talks with Russia. Nothing will come of talks in forever, but they should start. Even if all they talk about first is POW welfare or some such.
jergul large member	Sat Sep 23 14:07:49 Rada*
Rugian Member	Sat Sep 23 14:29:21 Human beings are not meant to live in the cold and darkness of the Arctic. It drives men mad after so long. That's the only explanation I have for jergul's lifelong Russophilia. He could have been paid to be a professional Russbot, but as a committed patriot he happily does it for free.
obaminated Member	Sat Sep 23 14:30:52 I mean. He did compare his country to North Korea in a desperate attempt to compliment Russia.
jergul large member	Sat Sep 23 14:45:40 Ruggy My love-hate relationship is more with the USA. You are like having a very disappointing child that still is very good at many things. Russia is interesting because of its complexity. Russians of my generation and older have almost-human qualities. You think they are like us, but sometimes the differences are stupendously great. The great trick is recognizing when it is happening and not bumble along thinking all is cool. But what I will not do is kow-tow to conformity and lose a sense of nuance. Things often happen for reasons. It is good to examine those reasons instead of goose-stepping into a good-evil narrative. Knowing more about why something was done never justifies what was done. It simply means knowing more. A normal, balance understanding of Russia is extreme only from the perspective of an extremist. What is up with your life-long Russophobia. Seb I get. Russia and the UK have been bickering like children for decades as both try to punch above their weight in memory of past imperial glory. But an American? Common. You should barely be able to find Russia on a map, let alone be emotionally invested in hating it. Obam What are you on about now? NK indisputably has more policy independence than Norway. The US is not the culprit in that saga. It would be the EU.
jergul large member	Sat Sep 23 14:59:19 Here Russia's invasion and occupation of Russia is irreversably and irredemable wrong because it is irreversable. Weapon aid should continue and we should make all efforts to increase all forms of aid the moment Ukraine decides to talk with Russia. I mean, like, send stuff our active units need to get Ukraine the best possibly outcome from talks. I am talking unsustainable levels of aid. Which answer why it cannot start now. We cannot sustain the level of aid I want. Sanctions on Russia should be permanent and its assets frozen permanently (not stolen. Expropriation of Sovereign assets without compensation will destroy the global economic order). This because the irreversable effect of the invasion and occupation. Permanent punishment for permanent harm. I let the Ukrainian counter offensive play out. It was Ukraine's one shot at a decisive breakthough that would let it restore its territory by force. I was fine with that. But the attempt failed. And I do not think it likely further attempts can succeed (I accept arguments that disagree here. The fog of war is too thick for any of us to know for sure what the future entails). That is some odd shit russophilia if you ask me.
jergul large member	Sat Sep 23 15:05:08 Let me add that I always thought it pretty unlikely that Ukraine could succeed and that its maximalist goals are out of practical reach to some extent (Crimea is existential for Russia and sadly, Russia is a nuclear power). Or hubris to think maximalist goals achievable. I dont think Russia can be beaten on those terms. In practical terms, they pass to many nuclear thresholds. But significantly more land gains towards the 2014 line of contact was possible if the spring offensive had succeeded.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Sat Sep 23 15:32:19 "jergul large member Sat Sep 23 14:03:27 Rofl@fuzzystudies even if true. I will accept the use of the authority adhom only in matters pertaining to trawling." What do you mean "even if true"? It's true, as per your linkdin and the dm you sent me. And it doesn't make you an authority, it just explain a lot of things. It is also a backhanded compliment about your commitment to the Russian hegemony.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Sat Sep 23 15:37:07 Rugian "He could have been paid to be a professional Russbot, but as a committed patriot he happily does it for free." Thank you! You get it, what I was trying to say, this isn't a LARP, it is real. Jergul is at his most honest when talking about Russia. He is not trolling, not being contrarian or trying to provide nuance for the sake of humanity, peace and understanding, it is a genuine commitment and fondness for Russia. The consistency on this matter for over 2 decades, while he will say contradictory/hypocritical things on literally every other topic is proof of this.
jergul large member	Sat Sep 23 16:03:45 Nimi A sunk cost fallacy? I invested some time into something way back when, so therefore it is in my interests that Russia remain a signficant player along the lines of say the UK so that my investment remains relevant? Well, that is one way of looking at it. Another would be to hope for complete collapse so I can do the Nansen-Quisling thing and get those sweet, sweet aid moneys to finance my humanitarian work. Anyone who has been to Russia has at best a very ambivalent relationship with the place. It has cultural highpoints, but its lowpoints are geeze, irredeemably low. I am fine with your perspective however. A nuanced, balanced view is always viewed as extreme by extremists. A bit sad the insistence on compliance and unity. But that is a facet of our mordern world. Everything is tribal these days. Fair enough. You do your tribe, I will continue to observe and laugh at you :).
jergul large member	Sat Sep 23 16:10:49 What contradictions and hypocracy? You mentioned a few. I explained why the tint of your glasses is warping your perspective. Are you in need of illumination on other topics too?
jergul large member	Sat Sep 23 16:12:38 Laugh at you was an overstatement. I will continue to be amused covers it better :)
jergul large member	Sat Sep 23 16:18:13 Bypassing this is incidentally an example of your confirmation bias. "Russia's invasion and occupation of Russia is irreversably and irredemable wrong because it is irreversable. Weapon aid should continue and we should make all efforts to increase all forms of aid the moment Ukraine decides to talk with Russia. I mean, like, send stuff our active units need to get Ukraine the best possibly outcome from talks. I am talking unsustainable levels of aid. Which answer why it cannot start now. We cannot sustain the level of aid I want. Sanctions on Russia should be permanent and its assets frozen permanently (not stolen. Expropriation of Sovereign assets without compensation will destroy the global economic order). This because the irreversable effect of the invasion and occupation. Permanent punishment for permanent harm. I let the Ukrainian counter offensive play out. It was Ukraine's one shot at a decisive breakthough that would let it restore its territory by force. I was fine with that. But the attempt failed. And I do not think it likely further attempts can succeed (I accept arguments that disagree here. The fog of war is too thick for any of us to know for sure what the future entails). That is some odd shit russophilia if you ask me." Is a supposed rusbot holds that position, then maybe something is wrong with my definition or rusbot is one way to go. Does not compute with my bias. Ignore. Is another. We all have cages in our minds. Sad to see how contraining yours are. Generational trauma is to blame perhaps.
jergul large member	Sat Sep 23 16:26:49 I am also warning you based on what I know about Russia and Russians of my age. Russia will happily turn Ukraine into a broken husk ay considerable cost to itself if that is the only way it can reach a semblance of its objectives. In that sense, every day of fighting brings Russia closer to reaching its goal. Now, unless you believe there is a turnaround, or that Ukraine is inflicting a 5:1 cost on Russia, then continued conflict serves Russian interests. Russia can be shamed into holding talks, then shamed into having talks with substance, but that will take a while. Ukraine is currently playing into the Russian playbook and time matters. Why is that a good idea?
jergul large member	Sat Sep 23 16:31:23 And finally, I may LARP some things more than others, but Westphalian peace is the thing I LARP the least. In case you are looking for a red thread.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Sat Sep 23 17:05:27 The sunk cost fallacy is the emotional and ideological investment that people like you did with the Soviet union and communism. People like you liter this continent and Scandinavia in particular, you know, people who viewed DDR as a model state. It was always a Russian project.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Sat Sep 23 17:24:09 "Jergul large member Sat Sep 23 16:18:13 Bypassing this is incidentally an example of your confirmation bias." I don't obsess over single statements, but the totality. You understand that one piece of data against a theory, doesn't invalidate the theory? Despite what Karl Popper said, that isn't how models, data or science actually works. That would actually be retarded. This is especially true when dealing with people, who can engage in proactive manipulations and deception, even on themselves, say contradictory things etc. and so on. Oh definitely Russia was wrong to invade and they should be punished! And then spend 18 months undermining that statement, every day several times a day, every way you can. Come on man! Are you trying to convince us you are so unrefined in your Rusboting that you can not make performative meaningless statements to give an air of balance? Why Jergul, trying to deceive us? You sneaky fucker.
Seb Member	Sat Sep 23 17:30:34 Jergul: Yeah. Nuclear power tells you that they are going to nuke you unless impossible criteria you cannot control happens - if that were taken seriously, your only option is an immediate attempt to disarm them. In reality such a threat would lack such credibility, the actual response would be to surge all your SSBNs to sea, and then very publicly ship a single cruise missiles to Ukraine. And then when Russia did nothing (they aren't going to end the world over a single cruise missile), very publicly ship another one. And then just go back to doing what we have been doing (and what Russia has done itself) throughout the entire cold war.
Seb Member	Sat Sep 23 17:34:54 Jergul: "Crimea is existential for Russia and sadly" Except as clearly demonstrated, Ukraine has put Crimea beyond use for Russia and look, Russia still exists and so does Ukraine. Russia would like to think that Crimea is some kind of existential talisman. What Ukraine is teaching it through a painful Socratic dialogue conducted in high explosive, shattered hulls and the blood of Russian admirals is that actually this is a bit of self-delusions that Russia needs to grow out of. Crimea is a bit of Russian history, and while it might be a bit painful for Russia to accept it isn't part of Russia, actually Russia is perfectly fine living without it. But pain can bring growth.
jergul large member	Sat Sep 23 18:31:24 Nimi I am not that old. My formative years rotated around how exactly the USSR would kill me. I grew up on pretty close to the Soviet frontier remember. Relief of its passing is part of the reason for why I though visiting post perestroika russia was interesting. How was your military service btw? How many years did you train to defeat invasion from the East or die trying? I tapped out on 4 formally and about after 12 if you think informal work has merit. Where did you serve? Seb I was just questioning your word choice. You do have a slight issue with overly sanitizing your language. I had also pointed out to para that the ultimatum was more a declaration of intent. I counted 11 military vessels in port on the satelitte imagery from the HQ strike. So, no. If that is the case, then all of Ukrainian port and river cities are no longer under its control. Because, well, what happened to the Ukrainian navy? I would be stunned if a Russian admiral was actually killed and would congratulate Ukraine of a stunningly successful attack. How did that happen when nuclear grade shelters were literally feet away? It will be very painful for Russia to accept losing Crimea. Past the point of using nuclear weapons painful. At some point, you should recognize that Russian perceptions decide when it will use nuclear weapons. I frankly agree with you. Crimea is not really worth it. But our views dont matter as we dont have the authorization to launch nuclear weapons.
murder Member	Sat Sep 23 20:43:57 1. Russian language 2. Russian history 3. Studied in Russia 4. Interest in Russian military equipment and tactics A picture emerges.
jergul large member	Sat Sep 23 20:45:19 I am not currently a CIA analyst if that was what you were alluding to.
murder Member	Sat Sep 23 20:46:21 Of course not the CIA. :oP
jergul large member	Sat Sep 23 20:48:48 You would be surprised. What agency would you think is interested in recruiting people with significant knowledge of Russia?
jergul large member	Sat Sep 23 20:53:33 You see the flaw in your logic, right? This guy is obviously a Russian agent. He knows sooo much about Russia. Why would a Russian agent put effort into learning stuff about Russia? Why would that be his target? Sigh, I welcome our Chinese overlords if what I have seen in this thread is the best western minds can produce.
murder Member	Sat Sep 23 20:55:58 Well Norway shares a border with Russia, so I assume the Norwegian Armed Forces have a strong interests in analysts specialized in Russia.
murder Member	Sat Sep 23 20:57:16 "You see the flaw in your logic, right? This guy is obviously a Russian agent. He knows sooo much about Russia." Jumping to conclusions ... so maybe not an analyst. :oP
jergul large member	Sat Sep 23 20:59:14 I should hasten to add that I do not know shit about people under 30 in Russia. I have no idea how they think. I have a couple decades where my musing have value. After that, the Russians I kind of understand how they think will fade into retirement or death. Right now, they happen to be decision-makers, so my ruminations have some value. From a know thy enemy perspective if nothing else. As if a two-bit power really matters. Next up, lets study the intecracies of the British Royal Family.
jergul large member	Sat Sep 23 21:05:46 Of course there used to be a great interest in Russia. The problem is two decades of vacuum where we left shit to entrepeneurs selling floors and pundits writing travelogues. We made ourselves stupid and blind. You can see a lot of stupid and blind in this thread. It does not matter if Russia is a two bit power, but we are sort of promoting its status. Getting Russia right matters these days.
jergul large member	Sat Sep 23 21:10:49 I could have told you from day one Russia would not react excessively for as long as Ukraine never got enough to actually win the war. That is Russia's red line and the West has obliged by not crossing it. We could have sent F-16s last year for all Russia would care beyond complaining about "prolonging war". There is a reason it went for a risky decapitation strike instead of a broad expansion in the east from the get-go. It knew a longer war would become awkward due to Western support.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Sun Sep 24 06:40:43 "How was your military service btw? How many years did you train to defeat invasion from the East or die trying? I tapped out on 4 formally and about after 12 if you think informal work has merit. Where did you serve?" You are overselling a mandatory military service. This was over in practice when I was called up, I was ready for duty however, I had to wait over a year to get in, since I am born in september all the good stuff was taken for someone with my scores. It was not that important for me, to wait yet another year before going to university. And nobody else thought it was important either. I am making up for it now by owning "assault weapons of war" and being a hunter. I am just saying that everything about you around Russia and Sovietunion, even China makes sense for someone who knows this part of the world is full of old nostalgic communists, despite their mandatory military service credentials. If you are not one, it is very odd that practically everything you say is according to expectation and congruent with all the other socialist ideas you have. One may think this is odd, since neither Russia or China are communist, but they are the counter force to capitalist America. Which is the fundamental never changing ideological center, you people can't stand America. I have lost count of the times you have whatabouted America, despite me giving European examples counter to Scandinavian policy. Really knee jerky response to challanging Scandinavian way of life, "yea, well what about America! What a horrifible existence!".
jergul large member	Sun Sep 24 07:26:04 Nimi: "oh, I have not served my country" butbut whataboutyourwhataboutamerica? A double whatabouotism. Nice! Everything I say makes sense from a nuanced, thinking man's perspective. I can see why you might struggle with that perspective The US is the premier global player. There are many interesting reflections to be made about what it does and does not do. Much of my critique is against the "best of all possible world's" mentality many Americans have. Are they truly living in the best of all possible worlds? You are also conflating what I think will happen with what I want to happen. I am personally very fond of America, but its duality is incredibly vexing at times. And yes, it really, really should stop invading countries for constructed reasons. But the US has not done that for a while (2003), so that is kind of old news at this point.
jergul large member	Sun Sep 24 07:32:23 Lets put it another way. What country do you think the 20 last shows or movies I have watched are from? Or the last 20 books I have read for that matter. Now if I had answered Russia, you draw a conclusion to feed your bias. Well, it is not Russia. I would say the USA, but I have a nagging feeling there are some UK authors and series in the mix too. Answer: US (and prolly some UK stuff too. I dunno and am too lazy to check).
jergul large member	Sun Sep 24 07:39:18 I get what you are trying to do. I am obviously a secular humanist with some intellectual pretensions, so it serves your interests to equate that with a diehard, oldschool communist of the kind that went extinct from around the invasion of chekoslovakia in 1968. You really should update your material. You have your agenda and it is incompatibal with secular humanism. So why not go for the guilt by association argument? Something will surely stick. Well, you do amuse me. I will give you that :).
	show deleted posts