Utopia Talk / Politics / Embarrassing: Ukraine invades Russia II

murder Member	Sun Aug 18 13:02:59 No really, it's no big deal. Russia is used to being invaded after starting a war with its neighbors.
Seb Member	Sun Aug 18 16:11:08 Jergul: "You hyped a village under threat because you lost sight of the big picture." You describe this as hype? "Sounds like the Koronevo is about to fall." This is what I mean by being prickly - overreact much to the driest possible sentence. Think you are a bit over-invested in your narrative. As I happen I think it is you that is missing the big picture. The way to deal with the FABs is to be able to use western long range strike weapons against the bases the planes operate out of - this has been a no-no for NATO because Russia says western weapons being used to attack Russian soil would be an escalation. Here we are, with western weapons being used to attack Russian soil with nary a peep from Russia against the west. That's the big picture here. That and the fact that Putin can no longer freeze the conflict on his terms, with the West simply pulling support. He has to either re-conquer Kursk, which means he can't move quickly after Trump wins, or provide a concession.
jergul large member	Sun Aug 18 16:23:41 Even mentioning this or that village hypes its importance. You might as well say "Seems Ukraine destroyed a Russian tank" The bother of typing out that sentence overaccentuates the importance of the incident. The way to deal with FABs is by creating an access denial space beyond the frontlines. Mediocre range cruise missiles cannot achieve that because Russia has strategic depth. Ie aircraft have far greater range than missiles. Invading Kursk with whatever weapons is a clear escalation. So was Russia's push into Kharkiv from the North for that matter. The Russian response will likely be akin to fighting until Ukraine surrenders unconditionally. It made the trajectory worse.
jergul large member	Sun Aug 18 16:29:04 I understood your subtext. Kursk now lets the demilitarization of Nato continue on a broader platform. Maybe, but the escalation the West really has to worry about is Russian arms supplies to future enemies of the West. We have certainly proven how inconvenient that is by doing it to Russia.
Seb Member	Sun Aug 18 17:18:52 Mentioning that a town that Ukraine has spent a couple of days encircling and trying to capture is about to be captured is hyping it now? I think you need to take a chill pill jergul, your interferences are way off. Nobody needs your permission to simply observe specific events. "The way to deal with FABs is by creating an access denial space beyond the frontlines" Access denial by means of blowing up runways and migs. "aircraft have far greater range than missiles" longer sortie times means lower sortie rate and higher cost. Plus the Russians don't seem to be so good at moving planes before bases get blown up "Invading Kursk with whatever weapons is a clear escalation." Yes, and yet WW3 hasn't happened. Would it happen if they were allowed to target so into Russia with strike weapons? I think that's very hard to believe now. "The Russian response will likely be akin to fighting until Ukraine surrenders unconditionally" I don't think the Russians are in a position to ever achieve that, and certainly the west isn't going to accept an unconditional Ukrainian surrender. That's never been on the table. A negotiated peace remains the only option, and this strengthens, not weakens Ukraine's hand. That's the other big picture you are missing. This makes it impossible for Western deal makers like Trump of Scholz to push Ukraine into accepting a deal on Russian terms
Seb Member	Sun Aug 18 17:21:40 "Russian arms supplies to future enemies of the West." Yes, it would be terrible if Russia sold explosives to terrorists, or air defence missiles to Iran etc. etc. But I don't really think we need to worry about Russian arms exports. Aside from demand reducing, they seem to be bigger importers at the moment.
jergul large member	Sun Aug 18 21:15:59 Seb I did not know you wrote nafo fan fiction. Or did you just forget the quotation marks from the nafo fan fiction you are citing? http://www...41533%2C34.93661066996485&z=14 The insignificant village is not encircled, about to be encircled, or close to being captured. I think you should stop projecting. You have many fights with many posters. One or more of them must have got to you. But that is a burden you need to carry on your own shoulders. Take a chill pill, touch some grass. What part of strategic depth dont you understand? There are no V-weapons that can fix this. Russia has tons of airports outside of mediocre missile range. Catching a plane or 3 while Russia adjusts is just an anectdotal tick-tock victory. Access denial in depth is the solution. Maybe send Ukraine the 24 patriot missile complexes it wants (so 100 launchers or so). You are hellbent on demilitarizing Nato anyway, so why not take the plunge and at least give Ukraine what it really needs. Attritional collapse is like bankrupcy. It happens slow, then all of a sudden. What is on the table besides eventually accepting the terms Russia dictates? The only real question is how rigerous Russia's terms will be. Kursk will make them worse. The no red lines matter bites both ways. I would be very careful getting the west embroiled in an Iraq or Afghanistan adventure for the next couple of decades. It would be a shame to lose a carrier because whatever country suddenly had serious anti shipping capability with proper ISR.
murder Member	Sun Aug 18 23:43:02 "Kursk now lets the demilitarization of Nato continue on a broader platform." I try to give you the benefit of the doubt, but you make it hard to ignore that you are a Russian fanboy, a Putinist, and straight up anti-west. The demilitarization of NATO? NATO has only grown stronger from the day your boy launched this war, and Russia has only grown weaker. The gap between the military capability of NATO and Russia has grown to the point where .. well, to the point that there are Ukrainian troops on Russian soil. Russia's only defense in any conflict is nuclear, and that bluff grows more ridiculous by the day.
TheChildren Member	Mon Aug 19 00:02:47 wooooowwww http://www...sed_entry_to_a_couple_because/
murder Member	Mon Aug 19 00:06:11 Wrong thread?
jergul large member	Mon Aug 19 03:36:11 Murder *shrug*, we would never have been in this situation if we and Norway in particular did what I wanted. The stupid, stupid foreign interventions instead of retaining and strengthening Norway's invasion defence. 5 million rounds of 155 would have been trivial. That is what Norway by rights should have had in storage with a properely dimensioned military tasked with doing what it should do. For example. But no. We had to support wierd US shit out of theater instead. More than 50% of Norway's ground force's hardware has been sent to Ukraine. We cannot fight with things in order books that will be delivered North of 2030. Maybe. Your problem is you cannot deal with true patriots. Not everyone can be a bonofide wetback you know. That aint a nationality.
jergul large member	Mon Aug 19 04:28:25 TC I saw the number you were quoting. 6000 in Kursk, 4000 in Sumy supporting (in addition to Sumy's normal troop levels). At this point, it seems a large number, but within the realm of possible.
murder Member	Mon Aug 19 05:10:09 "But no. We had to support wierd US shit out of theater instead." Such as where? Where did Norway fight? I'd rather not shit on the Norwegian Armed Forces, so lets not get ridiculous. Norway doesn't have 5 million 155mm rounds because they don't want them. They can be produced. You just have to want to. "More than 50% of Norway's ground force's hardware has been sent to Ukraine. We cannot fight with things in order books that will be delivered North of 2030. Maybe." Fortunately you don't need to worry about fighting anyone because Ukraine is busy tying up and demilitarizing the only threat on your frontier. "Your problem is you cannot deal with true patriots." Now I'm confused. Are you Norwegian or Russian?
jergul large member	Mon Aug 19 06:21:13 Murder Yes, the concept of patriotism bothers you. You understand its negation. Patriots elsewhere must be beaten down because their values are empty and meaningless. Elsewhere including Texas for example. Silly person. I grew up with the spectre of a Soviet invasion. Conscription service, then learning Russian because *reasons* Not great Russian, but enough to know and more importantly to learn stuff. Russia is totally in the wrong for invading and occupying Russia. Way worse than America's adventure because it is so irreversable. There is no mechanism that will give a equitable outcome, not even falling back on the principle of self-determination and referenda as population transfers have totally mucked with the balance of who lives where. Of course we did not need 5 million rounds of 155. The artisan soldiers did not need them. That volume is for mass mobilization and invasion defence. You know, like Ukraine is doing. The pivot toward expeditionary operations fundamentally changed the Norwegian military for the worse. It became an artisan force of select specialists amusing themselves at low risk for medals and hefty pay packages. It started with Kosovo to Afghanistan, to Iraq (Norwegian special forces were used for laser illuminating targets. Not enough of those in the US military back then. So anyway, we are trying to pivot back, but the institutional resistance is ludicrous. Invasion defence means officers and their families have to move to garrison towns in the North instead of their cosy homes in Oslo to which they have become accostomed. So sad. What hardship. Ukraine could have won. Maybe. If Russian morale had collapsed. The only route. Even effective sanctions would only be punitive, they would not change the trajectory on its own. But the stupidity of gambling on a decisive win. Ukraine should have taken the march-22 deal for precautionary reasons. Encouraging Ukraine to bail out of the deal was criminal global politics (break Russia, isolate china...profit! Many Ukrainians will die, but that is a sacrifice we are willing to make). The best course now is to keep Russia under sanction forever and permanently maintain its shift to the East and South. Ukraine would be wise to get a settlement as fast as possible. Russia punishes delay by increasing its peace conditions.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Mon Aug 19 06:31:34 lol@jergul Like 5 times I have made a joke about Russia's performance and you have gone all ACTHUAALLYY! Not sure who you think you are fooling with your vehement denial about the emotional dog you have in this fight. It is about as convincing as the theater the North Koreans put up for tourists, to assure them everything is just normal and dandy. The saddest part of that is that the North Koreans themselves do not understand how pathetically obvious it is that, things are not normal at all. It's pathetic.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Mon Aug 19 06:37:00 Jergul has no real understanding how to calibrate what is and isn't a hype. Remember how stoically he told us what would and wouldn't happen after October 7th? That was not a normal reaction, and neither is him having a melt down admonishing seb for "hyping" the fall of a Russian village. It is bizarre at first sight, but medication (on and off) would explain the behavior.
jergul large member	Mon Aug 19 06:57:27 Nimi I am only telling you what any reasonably informed Western analyst knows. Ukraine is screwed. You know why? Because costs do not matter to Russia. Russia is neither under or over performing. It is simply grinding down Ukraine's ability to fight. Sad to see you in such a state of denial.
jergul large member	Mon Aug 19 07:00:58 Also, stop projecting. It is known you self-medicate. I only hope that with age you have learned that a professional medication regime will assist you better with your inner demons.
Seb Member	Mon Aug 19 07:44:03 Jergul: Depends whose map you prefer - that are fighting northeast of the Western part and the Eastern part is showing as Ukrainian on others. Interestingly on most maps it appears to have two labels (divided by a river), maybe someone got excited. The train is on the wrong side. Point stands, about the driest possible comment. You are trying to justify the prickliness you display whenever Russia is on the backfoot. "What part of strategic depth don't you understand?" The part where you think pushing air bases further away from the front line is somehow not going to have any impact whatsoever. "Maybe send Ukraine the 24 patriot missile complexes it wants" Well yes and I mentioned the goal of the Kursk op in part being to extend air defences, but then you started moaning about FABs. Alas, jergulian logic FABs are apparently unbeatable - you can move in air defence, and the only way to defeat them is to move in air defence. This is not hype at all. "The no red lines matter bites both ways." Yeah, and with Russia engaging in sabotage operations in Europe, from use of chemical weapons that expose the general public to blowing up weapons dumps, and the fact they've never really been deterred from providing weapons to Western enemies, though to the decision to attack Ukraine in the first place, I think the ship has long sailed. Russia says and acts that it is conflict with the West, let's take them at their word. "country suddenly had serious anti shipping capability" Does Russia have serious anti-shipping capability?
murder Member	Mon Aug 19 08:38:29 "Does Russia have serious anti-shipping capability?" Russia sunk an entire navy with a single pack of cigarettes. :o)
Paramount Member	Mon Aug 19 08:52:55 ”the decision to attack Ukraine” There was no decision to ”attack Ukraine”. Donbas held a referendum to be free from the Kiev regime’s oppression and Kiev’s artillery shelling and to join the Russian Federation. Russia then entered Donbas (which after the referendum became a part of Russia) to defend the civilian population from Ukraine's aggression and to kick Ukraine and NATO out of Russia. It is purely a defensive military operation. It is NATO and Ukraine who decided to attack first Russians in Donbas and then Russia itself.
Paramount Member	Mon Aug 19 08:58:46 It should also be an embarassment for NATO that after 2 years of fighting they have still not defeated neither Donbas-militia or Russia who are supposedly weak and incompetent and are using old and rusty equipment from the ww2.
TheChildren Member	Mon Aug 19 09:20:17 it is clear now that this mission is pure propafunda and useless by itself. wut does this accomplish. they cant conquer russia. they xchanged suicide 4 a months worth of propafunda in da media..."loss of face" and shit. lies dunt matter. wut matters is reality. it is now clear wut is going on. just out: 3rd bridge in da region is destroyed. so da claim is, they have 440km holdin...yet these bridges r nowhere near that deep inside kursk but still got destroyed... does that sound logical 2 anyone? these bridges r destroyed 2 slow down any counter attack. its clear as day and night. so in other words, they expectin massive attack or alrdy facin such and they r in da withtreat and takin out infrastructures 2 slow down shit. doesnt sound so much "winnin" does it
jergul large member	Mon Aug 19 10:25:12 Seb We will agree to disagree on those points.
TheChildren Member	Mon Aug 19 23:43:18 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jlXeRB3JxQ8 dammmmm
jergul large member	Tue Aug 20 07:22:27 One thing worth remembering about red lines. From a regime perspective, fighting has been taking place on Russian soil since it illegally annexed part of Ukraine. In that sense, there is nothing special about the Kursk border area. The escalation portion is mainly due to activating a frontline. Similar to what Russia did North of Kharkiv. Thinking the regime cares more about karkov border area than it does any random strip of frontline is probably a mistake unsupported by facts on the ground (that have seen an almost casual response to Ukrainian advances as Russia in turn continues to advance on a wide front elsewhere). If you want to cross red lines, then heavily targetting major urban centers is the way to go. That is what the regime cares about when push comes to shove.
murder Member	Tue Aug 20 07:38:41 Then Russia should be OK with NATO weapons striking deep inside Russia, since they've been used all over the Russian occupied territories.
jergul large member	Tue Aug 20 08:13:12 In a red line sense? Sure. Russia already thinks it is at war with Nato. The self-deterrence has more with avoiding Nato dimilitarization and worries that the Houthis might get weapons capable of truly shutting down the red sea than it does any fear of Russia using nukes. I truly think the main US concern is how too heavy involvement will play out if Korea or Taiwan heats up. In addition to the tit-for-tat conscequences the next time it tries an Iraq styled invasion (if that is even possible any more).
jergul large member	Tue Aug 20 08:14:25 Tack on to that the need for capabilities to help out Israel with whatever troubles it will get itself into.
jergul large member	Tue Aug 20 08:15:49 But if you want to help Ukraine, then give it the 24 Patriot missile systems with 100 launchers that it actually needs.
Seb Member	Tue Aug 20 10:27:34 Jergul: "Russian soil since it illegally annexed part of Ukraine. In that sense, there is nothing special about the Kursk border area." One can argue that, but it is clear * Neither* Russia or NATO follows that logic with regard to use of Western weapons.
jergul large member	Tue Aug 20 10:42:20 True enough. Russia uses very few Nato weapons on its own recognized sovereign soil. What Nato thinks is, well, a clamour of thoughts. Ukraine is using 4 decent brigades in Kursk. Where else do you think Russia would prefer those brigades to be? A sparsely populated border region? The donbas urban-industrial conglamorate (a network of urbanized settlements with soviet architecture backed by fortifications)? Londonderry? Other suggestions?
TheChildren Member	Tue Aug 20 10:54:58 any guess how long those bridges wuld set back? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dbTnUA3ncHk lol alrdy crossed
Seb Member	Tue Aug 20 12:09:51 Jergul: Russia was issuing dire years about what *would* happen *if* NATO weapons were used to attack Russia on Russian soil after stormshaddows blew up ships and the naval hq in Crimea. I would suggest that although Russia considers it and other bits of Ukraine Russian soil, it knows NATO does not, and intends the threat to be read by NATO as a deterrent against providing Ukraine the means to attack what NATO recognises to be Russia; which hitherto had been NATO policy, then amended to "bombing a little bit into Russia"; now to "sure, drive our tanks all over their stupid faces", paving the way towards "shoot up air bases and air defence with storm-shadows, ATACMs and JDAMs as far as you can reach".
Seb Member	Tue Aug 20 12:11:07 It's a mistake to overead what is clearly an agreed ambiguity. We disagree on what's Russia, sure. But we know what they meant.
Seb Member	Tue Aug 20 12:14:30 I think Russia would prefer them to be thrown against their defences to attrite then with minimum cost. The more Putin makes it clear he doesn't give a shit about Russian regions, the more they won't give a shit about him. "Pah, let the khokhol's shit all over the border regions, they and their people are nothing to us" is not the killer position you think it is.
jergul large member	Tue Aug 20 12:36:24 Seb So sort of like what is going on in Kursk then? Even David Axe thinks Ukrainian losses are twice as high as normal. Nah. Nato simply does not want to disarm itself to the point required. We see that most clearly with Patriot launchers. Why exactly is Ukraine not getting 24 systems (a 100 or so launchers)? Through reasons vary amongst the many Nato voices.
Sam Adams Member	Tue Aug 20 15:34:07 http://x.com/Liveuamap/status/1825994101554065420 Beautiful fire/explosions. Burn russia burn.
Dukhat Member	Wed Aug 21 01:19:17 Jergul always tries so hard to find “facts” that fit his pre-arrived conclusion. Terminally online people are truly brain-dead.
jergul large member	Wed Aug 21 02:45:24 Dukhat Projection runs strong with you. Anyway, give is a shot. Why in your opinion have we not given Ukraine the 100 patriot missile launchers it desperately needs?
jergul large member	Wed Aug 21 03:06:42 Look, its not hard to understand. Ukraine has not been about "winning" since the counter offensive failed. It is about inflicting costs on Russia. Which is fair enough, if not cynical. The problem is balancing the costs. When, if ever, does the cost paid become greater than the cost inflicted in relative terms? I dunno myself. Too many stakeholders, too complicated. Too many diverging interests. For example, Europe weakening itself to support Ukraine. Is that a cost for the US, or is it a means to solidify the US position as the leader of a free world by curbing a would be competitor?
jergul large member	Wed Aug 21 06:06:09 Following units: · 22nd Mechanised · 54th Mechanised · 61st Mechanised · 88th Mechanised · 116th Mechanised · 80th Air Assault · 82nd Air Assault · 95th Air Assault · 101st Territorial Defence · 103rd Territorial Defence About 10k across the border in Kursk.
murder Member	Wed Aug 21 07:40:43 "For example, Europe weakening itself to support Ukraine." Europe is not weakening itself. It is freeing itself from its main and only external threat and its dependence on Russia. Whatever the cost of supporting Ukraine, it is cheaper than having to beat back Russia with their own flesh and blood. Whatever the cost, it is cheap than the combat and destruction occurring on their own soil. This is not a cost, it's an investment. Ukraine alone is absorbing the cost.
jergul large member	Wed Aug 21 07:57:49 Murder Europe is objectively weaker. But you answered my question. It is not a cost the the US, it is a means to solidify the US by curbing a competitor. At least you your opinion.
TheChildren Member	Wed Aug 21 08:02:53 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oYN9WB5x8yM from ur own propafunda channels
TheChildren Member	Wed Aug 21 08:06:21 well at 10k-15k soldiers http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XUOwyhCzsJk 4k+ losses... that like wut, 35% of ur armiez gone in 2 weeks? and wut has they gained so far, can nimdiot xplain this 2 us.
Rugian Member	Wed Aug 21 08:16:43 "Which is fair enough, if not cynical. " How dare you use that word. Ukraine is both the unambiguous victim and underdog in a war of aggression, invasion, and conquest being waged by its neighbor. Yet for them to open a new front against the enemy in an attempt to break the current stalemate, a perfectly legitimate military strategy that everyone from Sun Tzu to Eisenhower has recognized the virtues of, that is "cynical" to you? Let me ask you this bro. Who is more cynical, Ukraine or the asshole who has spent decades constantly trying to gaslight everyone on this board by... ...denying that Russia was continually meddling in Ukrainian politics during the 2000s - early 2010s ...denying that Russia was involved in the poisoning of Yushchenko ...denying that Russia was behind the "spontaneous" Crimean independence/annexation decision ...denying that Russia was the driving force behind the conflict that emerged in Donetsk and Luhansk ...denying that pro-Russian forces were the ones that shot down that plane ...denying that Russian military capabilities are absolute dogshit and incapable of overrunning Ukraine on a non-geologic timescale All you ever do is lie and throw out bullshit and attempt to muddy an issue. You're not a reliable source and no one believes anything you say. Know that.
Rugian Member	Wed Aug 21 08:17:37 Oh and by the way, according to you the area that Ukraine is marching around in is completely empty and strategically worthless. So what's the "cynical" play there exactly?
jergul large member	Wed Aug 21 09:16:38 Ruggy Cynical because everyone with any sense knows Ukraine's last best shot at winning was the counter offensive. It failed. Now it is just about imposing costs on Russia in convenient ways. The cynical point is about the war in general. Wanna be less cynical? Send Ukraine the 100 Patriot launchers it has asked for and desperately needs. Amazing how poorly you understand the former USSR. That goes for every point you had there. Also, revisionist much? The area is not worth destabilizing most of the Donbas aglomorate. Russia is pushing into built up areas there that should be Bakhmut difficult to take. All issues are muddy. Except for the one where Russia was absolutely wrong to invade, occupy and annex parts of Ukraine. Way worse than anything the US has done in my lifetime. It must be fun to live in your 1950s black white world. I get why nuance troubles you.
jergul large member	Wed Aug 21 09:35:47 *Of course Russia influenced Ukrainian politics before Maidan. *God knows who poisoned Yushchenko. The man himself blames a close associate tied to pro European political groups. According to wiki. Skripal is prolly the discussion you are thinking about. Seb was trying to blame Putin personally, I think it was an unsanctioned security force thing, though putin certainly would not mind. Just imagine a competent CIA 1960s and you get what my view is. Russia had already occupied Crimea. I think the refereda were probably representative, but that does not matter as their legitimacy can never be established. Donbas was a budding civil war Ukraine would have been able to put down if Russia had not heavily supported the insurgents. I disputed the intent aspect. A single buk launcher on loan to insurgents could certainly screw up target ID as a launcher without the battery support elements can be pretty rudamentary. I did not think Russia or Russian service members shot it down. Rather insulting to Ukraine your thoughts on the Russian military. Why has Ukraine not won yet if you are correct?
Paramount Member	Wed Aug 21 09:59:06 Russia has the right to do whatever it wants if they are concerned about their national security or if any of their interests are under threat. Ask the British, the Yanks, and the Zionazis. Russia isn’t doing anything wrong.
Sam Adams Member	Wed Aug 21 22:28:43 "About 10k across the border in Kursk." Lulz. Glad to see you agree with my assessment, though it took you 2 extra weeks
jergul large member	Thu Aug 22 01:16:23 It also took Ukraine 2 extra weeks. Ukrainian troop numbers should slowly double or triple as lines and logistics solidify. The fly in the ointment. A frontline held by a few thousand now has to be held by a few 10s of thousands.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Thu Aug 22 03:01:06 Jergul "Because costs do not matter to Russia." You really don't understand how things work, do you? This may resonate in the patriotic circles you frequent, but in the real world, costs always matter — or you die. Just ask Tsarist Russia, the Greek Junta, or any authoritarian regime in history that built an image of power and strength, took on too many costs, and eventually collapsed under the strain. You can already smell it in the Islamic republic, their Jerguls have all but given up trying to Jergul the facts. Mind you many times these are calculated risks and cost taking, you are just relying on too many Jerguls to make the linear prognosis and well, ya kinda miss the mark by a lot. And then you die. My position is the same as it was: 1. This will/is a challenge for Ukraine. 2. We should give them all the help they need/want as long as they are willing to fight. 3. This is about fighting Russia, not necessarily helping Ukraine. I have not changed. And of course I will chose my words carefully, no matter how small or insignificant, they are another brick in the wall of the information war. Our America friends may feel different, that is arguable, but they have some degree of separation. You Euros (jerguls and paramounts) are traitors.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Thu Aug 22 03:02:39 I forgot Salazar and Estado Novo. I had waited for an opportunity to reference him :/
Paramount Member	Thu Aug 22 04:58:18 ”This is about fighting Russia, not necessarily helping Ukraine” Nimatzo is ready to sacrifice half a million lives and more just so that he – not literally he himself of course, because Nimnazio would never risk a fight himself (remember that he and his family ran away from his homeland to a socialist(!) country, because Nimatzo and his family would never want to stand up and fight, which is why he is here now – advocating that someone else (the Ukrainians) has to fight Russia, because ”the US empire must expand to cover all of the world”. Nimatzo is a pitiful person. An enemy to humanity. He is the type of character who at the end of a movie when he is removed from the world of the living – then the entire cinema audience is cheering and applauding out of uncontrollable joy and relief. For reference, see the Burlington bar reactions on youtube. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n5wm3fY5pCY
jergul large member	Thu Aug 22 05:41:35 Nimi Costs do not matter to Russia relatively speaking. A normal person would read that as inferred. Are you going autistic on us? That would help explain your dumpster dives down rabbit holes with CC. Ukraine needs 100 Patriot launchers. Why are those not being delivered? My position is there same as your 3 points. Except you are using corporate fuzzy speak. 1. This is an unmitigated disaster for Ukraine. 2. We should help Ukraine more in the way we have. 3. This is about inflicting costs on Russia. Let me say it again: 100 Patriot launchers. Ukraine needs those to cover the front lines and protect what is left of it energy deliver capabilities.
jergul large member	Thu Aug 22 05:51:56 "Information war". That is where we differ. Who gives a fuck about that? We need to know that how bad Ukraine's trajectory is. Otherwise why demilitarize Nato to support Ukraine with what it truly needs to fight with dignity. There is nothing dignified about being hit by FABs. Order books will eventually rearm Nato countries, but that will take decades, not years. Demilitarize is the correct term. We have chosen to support Ukraine. That means support elsewhere has to be limited for quite a number of years. So no adventures in Iran, NK, or Taiwan. That is the price we are paying. The risk of something going really wrong somewhere else and not having the hardware to respond to it with overwhelming force.
jergul large member	Thu Aug 22 05:54:49 Make no mistake, our hardware is being burned and worn out under the worst possible of conditions. We would get way more bang for buck using it ourselves under air superiority conditions. But it it what it is.
murder Member	Thu Aug 22 08:15:57 "That means support elsewhere has to be limited for quite a number of years. So no adventures in Iran, NK, or Taiwan." WTF were you planning on doing in Iran, NK, or Taiwan?
murder Member	Thu Aug 22 08:24:14 Just to be clear, the US is not sending troops into Iran, NK, or Taiwan. Not today. Not a decade from now. And therefore, neither is NATO ... which really would have no business being involved in any of that anyway. The US may possibly conduct strikes in Iran or NK, and may well take on the Chinese Navy and Air Force in the vicinity of Taiwan, but we're no sending ground troops into any of them. Conditions for that are simply not favorable.
jergul large member	Thu Aug 22 08:48:32 Murder If you want to frame it like that, then it is an arsenal of democracy problem. What you send to Ukraine cannot also be sent to Israel, Taiwan, and or South Korea. But in any event, there should be no problem sending Ukraine the 100 Patriot launchers it urgently needs. What is your theory on why that has not happened?
murder Member	Thu Aug 22 09:00:42 "What is your theory on why that has not happened?" The same reason we deny most of their requests. Our leaders don't want to. I mean Ukraine requested tanks and F-16s, and we sent them ... 31 M1A1 Abrams tanks even though we have a surplus of ~ 5000 tanks. 0 F-16s even though we have a massive surplus with it being slowly phased out. What can I say? Joe Biden is a douchebag.
Turtle Crawler Admin	Thu Aug 22 12:19:10 They say production of Patriot missiles is the limiting factor. They could have a thousand launchers, but they don't have the missile production to use them. It looks like Russia doesn't feel threatened by this offensive so they aren't making any significant changes. If the US sends a thousand tanks then they will just be atritted slowly by drones. It's not really a tank war except when the front line is undefended and they can do some larger push.
jergul large member	Thu Aug 22 18:00:52 TC Kind of scary that missile production can only support 32 launchers facing intermittent raids. I personally think Ukraine needs significantly more to allow for system attrition nearer the frontlines. Russian FABs have to be stopped for Ukraine to have any hope of maintaining a ground force skill and morale differential in its favour (if indeed those still exist)
jergul large member	Thu Aug 22 18:12:03 Murder You have the same trouble Russia has. The vehicles in storage need to be refitted. Most in storage are M1A1s For airforce. Well, the F-16s need pristine concrete runways. They are quite finnicky. I have no idea how Ukraine plans to use them operationally at all.
Dukhat Member	Thu Aug 22 18:20:07 You don't need to use patriots for everything. It's for the high-value targets. To kill the Jerguls and Turtle Crawlers, you only need normal bullets and old artillery shells. They'll run right into them.
obaminated Member	Thu Aug 22 18:37:08 http://www...ght-Putin-against-Ukraine.html This accurately depicts russias invasion of Ukraine.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Fri Aug 23 07:36:12 Murder "What can I say? Joe Biden is a douchebag." A pussy too. But to give the devil his dues, there is also the idea that had they gone peddle to the metal from the start, there was always the fear of Putin going nuclear. But there has been a cost to slowly giving Ukraine the things they wanted to. Now is the the time to surge the support, let Ukraine take back as much as it can and then force a peace deal on more favorable terms. The USA has not given the Ukraine anything that has in any way made it broken elsewhere. Even those fancy HIMARS and ATACMS, the fuel has a best before date. If they are not used, they have to be sent back to the factory and that has a cost. Instead Ukraine gets to shoot them at Russia.
Pillz Member	Fri Aug 23 08:19:02 Dickat forgets the lack of artillery shells
Paramount Member	Fri Aug 23 10:39:07 You will have to defeat Russia on the battlefield first if your plan is to ”force a peace deal” on them that is unfavorable for them. And if you want to defeat Russia you will likely need to bring the nukes out. If Russia agrees to a peace deal, it will likely be a deal that is favorable for them. And in that case the deal will likely not be ”forced” upon them, but something they agree to.
Paramount Member	Fri Aug 23 13:22:27 Ukrainian losses in Kursk region: 5137 troops killed and wounded 69 tanks destroyed and disabled 27 infantry fighting vehicles 55 armored personnel carriers 350 armored fighting vehicles 5 Surface to air missile launchers 3 Patriot systems 3 Himars 2 Buk missile systems 1 Tunguska air defence system 1 Crotale missile system (only 10 of these in the world. France sent two to Ukraine. One of them is now DESTROYED so now there are only 9 left).
Paramount Member	Fri Aug 23 13:42:17 If Zelenskyj withraws from Kursk now it will be a spectacular humiliation. The loss of morale will never be recoverable and Zelensky will be finished, more or less. If the Ukrainian forces dig in, then Kursk will be their grave. It will be difficult for Zelenskyj to supply these troops as Russia will target the supply convoys with drone attacks, and the entrenched troops will die by FAB’s and then Russian special forces will mop up the remaining forces. This will also mean a defeat for Zelenskyj.
Paramount Member	Fri Aug 23 14:06:01 the article reads poorly trained recruits contribute to loss of Ukrainian territory on Eastern Front commanders say and we read that some you new Ukrainian soldiers refuse to fire at the enemy, others according to commanders struggle to assemble weapons to coordinate basic combat movements a few have even walked away from their posts abandoning the battlefield all together and um we have a quote from a frustrated Battalion commander of the 47th Brigade apparently on its way to Kursk now some people don't want to shoot, they see the enemy in the firing position in trenches but don't open fire that is why our men are dying when they don't use the weapon they are ineffective From video transcript: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=esb1moQHOVo If true, it doesn’t sound very good for the Ukrainians.
Paramount Member	Sat Aug 24 01:43:10 ”a few have even walked away from their posts abandoning the battlefield all together people don't want to shoot, they see the enemy in the firing position in trenches but don't open fire ” Just like the Afghans, the Ukrainians has realized that fighting the US empire’s war is not something that they want to do. They rather walk away or die than fight for the US mafia leaders.
Paramount Member	Sat Aug 24 14:34:34 Today is the Ukrainian Dependent Day. They celebrate the 10th anniversay of being dependent on the USA.
Paramount Member	Sun Aug 25 02:19:46 * Ukrainian Dependence Day
Paramount Member	Mon Aug 26 08:52:35 It’s depressing, isn’t it?
Turtle Crawler Admin	Tue Aug 27 18:46:35 Are there any good summaries of the damage of the last few days of missile strikes? So little reporting.
TheChildren Member	Wed Aug 28 01:13:41 http://www...nts/1f2wlgm/honest_by_mistake/ is by design is why yall neva hearin bout da true casualties of this conflict is why habebe neva heard of chinese cars or phones be4 until chinese cars r da best in da world now is why yall neva heard of chinese reforestations or why rugian dont know wut da biggest gamin title 2 come out this summer is, despite every corner of da world hyped up 4 this (biggest release kid) or why yall readin fake shit bout camps, lie cheat and steal and neva mentioning da truth
murder Member	Wed Aug 28 05:31:31 I can't believe that this thing is still going on 3 weeks later. God the Russians are disorganized. The Russians must have hired the former Police Chief of Uvalde schools to organize their forces in Kursk.
murder Member	Wed Aug 28 05:34:04 I have to assume that eventually Ukrainian forces are going to get bored and go home, since they clearly aren't going any further.
jergul large member	Wed Aug 28 05:56:17 Murder Well, right now, Ukraine is using maneuvre formations. It will want to rotate them out at some point. Preferrably before they become static formations. Still something to be gained. A portion of the contact line is semi-isolated. I can see Ukraine wanting to nab that, then set up defensive lines along the two rivers inside Russia proper. Not sure why you think Russia should have surged capacity to defeat, instead of block the incursion. Is that not what Ukraine wanted it to do? Attritional warfare with incremental advances remains the template Russia prefers because it is a template that works for them.
Paramount Member	Thu Aug 29 10:12:50 Russia doesn’t even have to shoot them down. Ukrainians are crashing and destroying the planes themselves! U.S.-Made F-16 Fighter Jet Crashes in Ukraine Kyiv recently received six of the planes to boost its fight against Russia, a key symbol of U.S. support A Ukrainian F-16 fighter jet was destroyed in a crash on Monday, according to a U.S. official, just weeks after the first of the American-made aircraft arrived in Ukraine. Initial reports indicate the jet wasn’t shot down by enemy fire, although the incident occurred during a massive Russian missile barrage across the country on Monday, the official said. Rather, the crash was likely a result of pilot error. http://www...rash-4f6d66f6?mod=hp_lead_pos2
TheChildren Member	Thu Aug 29 14:39:12 welp that didnt last long...
TheChildren Member	Thu Aug 29 23:41:45 http://www...cern-escalation#comment-stream they sayin it got taken out... but by "friendly fire" which prolly means da opposite happened
Paramount Member	Fri Aug 30 00:23:30 Kyiv, Ukraine CNN — A top Ukrainian pilot was killed when a US-made F-16 fighter jet crashed The Ukrainian Defense Forces do not believe pilot error was behind the incident, the source added. Pilot Oleksiy Mes, known as “Moonfish,” was killed in the crash while “repelling the biggest ever aerial attack” by Russia against Ukraine, said the source, adding that the pilot was buried on Thursday. http://edi...ne-f16-crashes-intl/index.html
murder Member	Fri Aug 30 07:43:59 I'm going to guess that the pilot and an air defense system crossed paths while trying to shoot down incoming missiles and drones.
jergul large member	Fri Aug 30 08:07:56 I am going to guess human error created a context where the friend or foe id system failed miserably.
TheChildren Member	Fri Aug 30 08:53:41 da story is, he was flyin and then suddenly they lost all contact seems kinda obvious wut happened
Rugian Member	Fri Aug 30 09:25:34 Why are you guys talking about a single lost F-16? According to Alexander Mercouris, the Ukrainian front is in a state of total collapse at the moment! http://m.youtube.com/@AlexMercouris/videos I mean, sure, it's the exact same message he's peddled in his 300 other videos on the subject in the last year, but that doesn't detract from how seriously we should all be taking this. Slava Rossiya
jergul large member	Fri Aug 30 11:32:50 Things have certainly heated up. Russia claims to have inflicted losses on 67 combat brigades over the last week. Ukraine has around 100 of those. Indicative of lots going on. Russia usually claims some 40 combat brigades have been engaged over a typical week.
jergul large member	Fri Aug 30 11:40:14 As to territorial gains. Does 25km2 a day matter much? Ukraine has strategic depth and very mobile fallback capability (virtually every squad has access to a civilian car. Negligible military value, but they can always just drive away instead of getting cut off). The frontline in donbas could move 50 km West and it would make little practical difference. So, sure, Russia is making slightly larger incremental gains these days. That in itself matters little.
Paramount Member	Sat Aug 31 00:21:05 Oops Ukraine's air force commander dismissed after F-16 crash Aug 30 (Reuters) - President Volodymyr Zelenskiy dismissed Ukraine's Air Force Commander Mykola Oleshchuk on Friday, according to a presidential decree. The dismissal was announced just a day after the Ukrainian military reported that an F-16 jet crashed and its pilot died while repelling a major Russian strike on Monday. He did not give a reason for dismissal but mentioned that personnel must be protected, and that there was a need to strengthen the command level. The Ukrainian military did not provide a reason for Monday's crash but said the jet came down while it was approaching a Russian target. http://www...ir-force-commander-2024-08-30/ ” said the jet came down while it was approaching a Russian target” So the F16 crashed into a Russian missile?
Paramount Member	Sat Aug 31 00:35:15 “We need to protect people. Protect personnel. Take care of all our soldiers,” Zelenskyy said in an address minutes after the order was published. He said Ukraine needs to strengthen its army on the command level. The dismissal came on the same day that Oleshchuk directed scathing criticism at a lawmaker who is deputy head of the Ukrainian parliament’s defense committee for her claims that the F-16 was downed by a Patriot air-defense system. Ukraine has received an unspecified number of the U.S.-made systems. Mariana Bezuhla cited unnamed sources for her claim and demanded punishment for those responsible for the error. Oleshchuk accused Bezuhla of defaming the air force and discrediting U.S. arms manufacturers and said that he hoped she would face legal consequences for her claims. “The truth will win,” Bezuhla posted on X shortly after the dismissal order was published. http://www...-air-force-commander-f16-crash ”The truth will win” As long as the truth is not antisemitic or as long as the US is not discredited.
TheChildren Member	Sat Aug 31 10:43:11 what is da latest they been sayin da offensive is completely at stop now... youtube comments so prolly not super accurate lol
jergul large member	Mon Sep 02 09:27:40 Russia continues to make incremental gains over a pretty wide front. It is starting to look like Ukrainian reserves have been significantly drained. Frontlines are held not only by troops on the line, but by troops and other assets (extra drones, arty ammunition etc) that are released to counter any advance. Russia's advances can only be explained by significant shortfalls on assets available to counter.
Turtle Crawler Admin	Thu Sep 05 17:43:18 Russia now has enough iskander production (50+ a month?) that their local commanders can order strikes without having to go to HQ. These ballistic rockets go fast so there isn't much warning. Apparently a ton of soldiers died in training (600+?) because the time between the air raid siren and impact was too low.
jergul large member	Thu Sep 05 17:50:46 The Kinzals are that fast for deep penetration attacks. An iskander hit a hotel used by the military close to the frontline where distance more than speed gave little reaction time. Releasing iskanders to field control seems to have some effect versus various kinds of rocket launchers including HIMARs and the tracked version.
murder Member	Thu Sep 05 21:00:22 cont here ... http://www...hread=93205&time=1725587951390
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