Utopia Talk / Politics / Hezbollah: The Finding Out

murder Member	Mon Sep 23 19:31:32 Lebanon says Israeli airstrikes kill at least 492, residents flee from south > Israel says it struck about 1,600 Hezbollah targets > Hezbollah says it fired rockets at Israeli military posts > Lebanon says 492 people killed, deadliest day in decades JERUSALEM/BEIRUT, Sept 23 (Reuters) - Israel's military said it launched airstrikes against Hezbollah sites in Lebanon on Monday, which Lebanese authorities said had killed 492 people and sent tens of thousands fleeing for safety in the country's deadliest day in decades. After some of the heaviest cross-border exchanges of fire since hostilities flared in October, Israel warned people in Lebanon to evacuate areas where it said the armed movement was storing weapons. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu sent a short video statement addressed to the Lebanese people. "Israel's war is not with you, it's with Hezbollah. For too long Hezbollah has been using you as human shields," he said. Families from south Lebanon loaded cars, vans and trucks with belongings and people, sometimes multiple generations in one vehicle. As bombs rained down, children crammed onto parents' laps and suitcases were tied to car roofs. Highways north were gridlocked. "I grabbed all the important papers and we got out. Strikes all around us. It was terrifying," said Abed Afou, who was with his family, including three sons aged 6 to 13 and several other relatives. They sat in traffic as it crawled north. They did not know where they would stay, he said, but just wanted to reach Beirut. Some people escaped on foot. People carrying small bundles of belongings trekked northward on the beach near the Lebanese town of Tyre. Nasser Yassin, the Lebanese minister coordinating the crisis response, told Reuters 89 temporary shelters in schools and other facilities had been activated, with capacity for more than 26,000 people as civilians fled "Israeli atrocities". After almost a year of war against Hamas in Gaza on its southern border, Israel is shifting its focus to the northern frontier, where Iran-backed Hezbollah has been firing rockets into Israel in support of Hamas, also backed by Iran. Israel's military said it struck Hezbollah in Lebanon's south, east and north, including "launchers, command posts and terrorist infrastructure." The Israeli Air Force struck approximately 1,600 Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon and the Bekaa Valley, it said. Lebanon's health ministry said at least 492 people had been killed, including 35 children, and 1,645 wounded. One Lebanese official said it was Lebanon's highest daily death toll from violence since the 1975-1990 civil war. The fighting has raised fears that the U.S., Israel's close ally, and Iran will be sucked into a wider war. Saudi Arabia expressed deep concern on Monday and urged all parties to exercise restraint, state news agency SPA reported. A senior U.S. State Department official said the United States does not support a cross-border escalation between Israel and Hezbollah and that Washington was going to discuss "concrete ideas" with allies and partners to prevent the war from broadening. Israeli officials have said the recent uptick in airstrikes on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon is designed to force the Iran-aligned group to agree to a diplomatic solution. The U.S. official, briefing reporters in New York on condition of anonymity, pushed back on the Israeli position, saying the Biden administration was focused on "reducing tensions ... and breaking the cycle of strike-counterstrike." CONFLICT 'PEAK' Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant said Monday marked a "significant peak" in the nearly year-long conflict. "On this day we have taken out of order tens of thousands of rockets and precise munition. What Hezbollah has built over a period of 20 years since the second Lebanon War is in fact being destroyed by the IDF," he said in a statement, referring to the Israel Defense Forces. On Monday evening Israel launched a strike on Beirut's southern suburbs aimed at senior Hezbollah leader Ali Karaki, the head of the southern front. Hezbollah later said he was safe and had moved to a secure location. But Hamas' armed wing said its field commander in southern Lebanon, Mahmoud al Nader, was killed in an Israeli air strike. Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari said in a statement that Israeli strikes had hit long-range cruise missiles, heavyweight rockets, short-range rockets and explosive drones. In response, Hezbollah said it launched dozens of missiles at a military base in northern Israel. Sirens warning of Hezbollah rocket fire sounded across northern Israel, including in the port city of Haifa, and in the northern part of the occupied West Bank, the military said. About 60,000 people have been evacuated from northern Israel because of the cross-border fighting. Gallant said the campaign would continue until the residents had returned to their homes. Hezbollah for its part has vowed to fight until there is a ceasefire in Gaza. Hagari said Hezbollah put weaponry "inside Lebanese villages and civilian homes, and intended to fire them toward civilians in Israel while endangering the Lebanese civilian population." Hezbollah has not commented on the assertion that it has hidden weapons in houses, which Reuters could not independently verify, but it has said it does not place military infrastructure near civilians. The strikes have redoubled the pressure on the group, which last week suffered heavy losses when thousands of pagers and walkie-talkies used by its members exploded. The operation was widely blamed on Israel, which has not confirmed nor denied responsibility. In New York, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said Israel wanted to drag the Middle East into a full-blown war by provoking Iran to join the Israel-Hezbollah conflict. "It is Israel that seeks to create this all-out conflict," he told journalists after his arrival in New York to attend the U.N. General Assembly, saying the consequences of such instability would be irreversible. http://www...ah-targets-lebanon-2024-09-23/
Sam Adams Member	Mon Sep 23 22:28:40 "Hezbolla is currently being commanded by all the people who last week didnt rate a pager" Lmao
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Tue Sep 24 04:31:06 Apparently the IDF has LIDARed every inch of southern Lebanon, they know where all the burrows are.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Tue Sep 24 12:44:06 In the other thread I mentioned an Israeli raid in Iran. Just watched another debate/interview with Mehdi Nasiri (journalist) who used to be chief editor of a major conservative hardline newspaper. He is a serious reformed conservative and he mentions the reference (the previous show) and says it took place recently in Isfahan, with two dead atleast. The debate http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=iQh1NdajADo I believe these two deaths blamed on a gas leak in an IRGC workshop is the alleged Israeli raid. http://www.rferl.org/a/isfahan-irgc-israel-gas-leak-deaths/33098236.html
Sam Adams Member	Tue Sep 24 17:50:34 http://pbs...AAA_GU6?format=jpg&name=medium Silly question... is Nasrallah actually a mossad agent?
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Thu Sep 26 04:29:02 So, reading between the lines, the Islamic Republic's foreign minister stayed in New York to, according to him, meet with several other ministers (Blinken?). Additionally, there are reports that Hezbollah has asked the Islamic Republic to join the fight. However, Khamenei gave a vacuous speech, repeating 40 years of slogans. Instead of declaring war on Israel, he reminisced about the hardships of the Iran-Iraq war, ultimately stating that "Israel has already lost" and that Hezbollah will prevail. lol :) Today, the feeble Biden administration is calling for a ceasefire. Listen, if I (and many others) had figured out years ago, based on publicly available information, that the Islamic Republic is a wet paper tiger, these past 10 months have only reinforced that belief. We’ve seen their capabilities are far weaker than what was once theorized by the skeptics. So, why, oh why, is the Biden administration still talking about a "regional war" and trying to save the axis of terrorists? These guys have the NSA, CIA, satellites, and god knows what else, surely they must have know far earlier than I did, surely, they must have even more convincing and damning supporting evidence? SOMEONE EXPLAIN THIS BULLSHIT!
Sam Adams Member	Thu Sep 26 10:03:42 "Today, the feeble Biden administration is calling for a ceasefire" True but at least also calling for hezbollah to fall back to beyond the litani. So 3/10 skill level on biden-harris.
Sam Adams Member	Thu Sep 26 12:03:29 Hezzies since the pager attacks: 1500 kia, 5000 wia. Israel, 0 kia 10 wounded lightly. Lmao this is one of the great beatings in military history. Not quite the scale us-iraq or cortez-aztecs but just as lopsided.
jergul large member	Thu Sep 26 12:50:46 8.6 billion divided by 1500 = 5.5 million per Hezb killed cost for US taxpayers.
Rugian Member	Thu Sep 26 13:34:40 We're a $25,000,000,000,000 economy. We can afford it.
Rugian Member	Thu Sep 26 13:36:34 Unfortunately the usual pro-terrorist retards have chimed in: " Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez @AOC Israel’s pager attack in Lebanon detonated thousands of handheld devices across of a slew of public spaces, seriously injuring and killing innocent civilians. This attack clearly and unequivocally violates international humanitarian law and undermines US efforts to prevent a wider conflict. Congress needs a full accounting of the attack, including an answer from the State Department as to whether any US assistance went into the development or deployment of this technology." ---- Bernie Sanders @BernieSanders Much of the carnage in Gaza has been carried out with U.S.-provided military equipment. Why on earth would the U.S. approve another $20 billion arms sale to Israel? I will move to block these weapons. Not another nickel for Netanyahu’s illegal war. ---- Ilhan Omar @IlhanMN Agree. We should not send another dime to fund the genocide. Netanyahu’s reckless disregard for civilian lives in the pager attack in Lebanon is yet another example of why we need to cut off military aid. ---- These people should receive pagers for Christmas.
obaminated Member	Thu Sep 26 13:46:27 It's not even the kill ratios that matter. We killed way more viet kong than they killed us and we still had to give up. It's the fact that Israel has taken out hezbollahs leadership. Yes. Gotta laugh at the leftist pro Palestinians crying about one of the greatest strikes in modern history. I suppose those terrorists will resort to carrier pigeons now.
murder Member	Thu Sep 26 17:13:13 "Today, the feeble Biden administration is calling for a ceasefire. Listen, if I (and many others) had figured out years ago, based on publicly available information, that the Islamic Republic is a wet paper tiger, these past 10 months have only reinforced that belief. We’ve seen their capabilities are far weaker than what was once theorized by the skeptics. So, why, oh why, is the Biden administration still talking about a "regional war" and trying to save the axis of terrorists? These guys have the NSA, CIA, satellites, and god knows what else, surely they must have know far earlier than I did, surely, they must have even more convincing and damning supporting evidence? SOMEONE EXPLAIN THIS BULLSHIT!" Hezbollah and Hamas are useful levers for the US to achieve its foreign policy ... meaning forcing a two state solution. The Biden administration isn't worried about a regional war, it is worried about Israel eliminating those levers by wiping out Hamas and Hezbollah. What is promised to Israel in exchange for a two state solution? Peace. If Israel achieves peace by destroying the Hamas and Hezbollah, then what is their incentive for agreeing to a two state solution?
obaminated Member	Thu Sep 26 20:33:44 Remember when jergul predicted this invasion was gonna be over in a couple months because the hamas attack didn't merit more than a response that placated the people of Israel and nothing more? Has jergul ever been more wrong? Maybe his prediction that the Russia Ukraine war would be over in a year.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Fri Sep 27 04:25:59 "Has jergul ever been more wrong?" He does not understand biological evolution, that is by far the most fundamentally wrong thing he has ever said. But this one is a bit special, because it was a carbon copy of what the axis of resistance own "analysts" *genuinely* thought, including all their leftist cheerleaders. You guys know that all the *Iranian* leftist, living in exile (whose compatriots the Islamic republic slaughtered in the 80's) went and voted in the presidential elections for Saeed Jalili (encouraging everyone to do the same), dubbed the Taliban candidate? Because they figured he would be much tougher on Israel. Such is the nature of a piece of shit rat fuck, they will sacrifice family and kin for their cultist objectives. Anyway first it was Israel will never go into Gaza with ground forces. Then, Israel doesn't have the will or capability for a prolonged conflict. Then they were celebrating blowing up poultry farms. Only as the conflict went into 10 months and after the IRGC failed missile strike, did reality start dawning. But as you see Jergul is now here, after Israel has made falafels out of his beloved Hezbollah: Waaaaa millions of dollars waaaa!
jergul large member	Fri Sep 27 04:30:42 Obam You are wrong on all counts. I did not give a timeline for either conflict, I simply thought Israel would limit its excesses to 10000 killed civilians in Gaza. I forgot to factor in that Israel's PM goes to jail once the conflicts end, so of course he will keep on rolling. Nimi Cool story, bro.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Fri Sep 27 06:15:09 jergul large member Thu Oct 19 17:58:18 Sat Oct 07 11:44:20 I think Israel will extract an acceptably disproportionate toll on Palestinian civilians and militants. Certainly in the 1000nds. Tack on a few punitive strikes against Iran in Syria if you like. But beyond that? Too many hostages and prisoners of war to expect a dramatic escalation. I don't get your problem. Hamas and Israel have been in a state of war for like forever. The only big thing that has happened is that this hamas operation was sort of successful. Most fail. Most civilians will be fine. Israel has tons of shelters. So now the IDF gets to mop up, then do some punitive incursions and bombings inside Gaza. Business as usual once we look beyond the profound embarrassment. ============= Note the timestamp.
jergul large member	Fri Sep 27 07:42:24 Or what I just said in other words. Yepp, I forgot the Isaeli PM will go to jail when the war ends, and would rather see the hostages die than suffer that fate. Silly me. I did not think it would escalate beyond a 10:1 ratio because hostages would die in the cross fire if it escalated beyond that. I still see no flaw in my logic beyond forgetting Netanyahu's legal troubles. You really hate that I am usually right. By my count, spectacularly right 8 time of 10. :).
obaminated Member	Fri Sep 27 11:14:50 Wow. Jergul is that guy whose girl catches him fucking another girl and immediately starts gaslighting and saying it wasn't him or it never happened. And he genuinely thinks he will be believed.
Sam Adams Member	Fri Sep 27 11:35:43 Israel just bombed the shit out of hezzy hq, probably killing Nasrallah. Lol poor jergul.
Sam Adams Member	Fri Sep 27 11:56:37 I should change that to possibly. Lots of rumors going around about who precisely got schlonged but the idf clearly goatfucked a large hezzy gathering(and the apartment complexes of human shields the hezzies thought would shield them lol)
jergul large member	Fri Sep 27 13:27:58 Lol literally poor sammy. http://www...leases/z1/20240912/html/d3.htm
Sam Adams Member	Fri Sep 27 13:59:39 Back to probably on nasrallah. Lol jergul dont be butthurt that you were wrong. Its ok to be wrong. Just learn from it, as a man does.
obaminated Member	Fri Sep 27 14:01:28 Lol. Jergul reduced to completely ignoring the topic at hand and resorts to a failed attempt at trolling.
jergul large member	Fri Sep 27 14:11:48 Sammy I am wrong 2 times of 10 and am fine with that. Asked and answered by the way. I did not factor in the Israeli PM going to jail when the conflict ends. A factor that obviously weighed heavier than the mere lives of hostages. Obam It is on topic. Who is paying for Israeli operations? You think a pissant country of 10 million could do anything like this on its own? Enabling has a price of course. 1.5 million per dead on Lebanese territory.
obaminated Member	Fri Sep 27 14:14:53 Jergul is now trying to argue US support for Israel is unfair and isn't sustainable. Lol. Just like Ukrainian resistance wasn't sustainable.
jergul large member	Fri Sep 27 14:20:04 Obam Of course it is sustainable. Your retiremens money will go way before aid to Israel will. lol@you thinking Ukraine can sustain the conflict.
jergul large member	Fri Sep 27 14:21:10 And perhaps it is unfair, to yourself and future generations. That however is no skin off my teeth.
obaminated Member	Fri Sep 27 14:21:56 Jergul, you have been wrong. Constantly. The whole Israel hamas thing should have been enough for you to quietly leave the thread. But no. You still think you got it right. Which is more sad than funny because it's reveals how delusional you are with yourself.
jergul large member	Fri Sep 27 14:32:22 Asked and answered obam. No shame in underestimating how cynical Netanyahu is. I am fine with your kneejerk tribalism. But that ride costs money. I checked. Drawdown on SS reserves started last year and will run dry in 2034. Then you will have a true pay as you go system where dollars in equals dollars out. Reducing benefits to 80% of what it is today. I am sure many retired people can happily take that reduction. While others will have to beg on street corners. Sad. Very sad.
Sam Adams Member	Fri Sep 27 14:32:28 "I did not factor in the Israeli PM going to jail when the conflict ends." Weak excuse. "You think a pissant country of 10 million could do anything like this on its own?" Dont neglect the IQ difference. Israel with its mean iq of 115(highest of all nations by far) can do things vastly more capable than an equivalent size of even the US. defeating the 80 iq palestinians is trivial. The incompetent biden admin has been holding israel back in fact.
jergul large member	Fri Sep 27 14:35:47 Sammy Nimi kindly found a quote. I thought there were too many hostages for Israel to do more than inflict a suitably disproportionate toll on the Palestinian people. And Hamas of course I suppose. Turns out I was wrong. For I had not factored in Netanyahu going to jail once his PM immunity ends.
jergul large member	Fri Sep 27 14:38:12 80 IQ is about that of the greatest generation that won wwii.
jergul large member	Fri Sep 27 14:44:49 http://www.worlddata.info/iq-by-country.php Israel is ranked 42.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Fri Sep 27 14:58:26 Jergul is trying to rescue his failed prediction with another one: Netanyahu will go to jail. lol It’s very similar to 12.5% by 2020.To which Jergul said: I had no idea the USA would defend their financial power, recklessly printing money. Who could have predicted that? Not the master of linear assumptions. Eventually the heat the death of theuniverse will defeat Israel and the USA, and Jergul can claim victory! Anyway, for about a day rumor has circulated that Nasrallah has been hurt in an Israeli strike. Hezbollah has not commented. That must surely be a good sign?
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Fri Sep 27 15:07:48 “I thought there were too many hostages” You have a broken sense making software, that is why you couldn’t tell ass from hand. You failed to abstract at a higher level “an entire nation held hostage” vs 200 individuals. Then you counted on Netanyahu not having a spine and doing what was painful, but necessary. You were literally “thinking” like a woman. Not in a good way.
Sam Adams Member	Fri Sep 27 15:24:46 Jergul do better.
jergul large member	Fri Sep 27 16:19:53 Nimi Netanyahu's legal troubles are a matter of public record. I have also not predicted he will go to jail, in fact avoiding jail is one of the main personal points of the conflict. Public debt will not defeat Israel as it a main funding priority for the US and will likely remain so for as long as there is a two party system. Obam's pension on the other hand will suffer a pretty hefty cut as the US transitions to a true pay as you go system once the current surplus is burned off by 2034. Tribalism is fine. Just own it and recognize the price tag even if you think it worth paying. Israel was certainly going to inflict a suitably disproportionate price on Gaza anyway. Held hostage how exactly? And how has that changed beyond fuelling Hamas support amongst the Gazan population? A known factor. The only way out of the impass is to fully and permanently occupy gaza with boots on the ground. Which I favour. I just think Israel is too big a pussy to actually do that.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Fri Sep 27 16:35:19 "Held hostage how exactly?" ...It doesn't need explanation. It shouldn’t. If you're genuinely confused and seriously asking this, there is no formal language with which words could form logical argument that could clarify things for you. My honest advice: stop wasting your mental energy on this. Don’t even bother thinking about it, let alone forming opinions. Just relax, play EVE Online, indulge yourself when you feel like it, and enjoy your life.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Fri Sep 27 16:45:07 CNN is now citing Israeli sources that Nasrallah may have indeed been the target of a strike. Hezbollahs own sources have been very quite. All praise to Elohim, may he strike dead the enemies of Israel, for they are the enemies of life, the worshipers of death.
obaminated Member	Fri Sep 27 18:47:38 http://www...omised-striking-Hezbollah.html Yep. He was the target. Whether or not he is dead is yet to be confirmed but no one from hezbollah was claimed he is alive or dead. And they haven't shown any proof of life. Big if true.
Sam Adams Member	Fri Sep 27 23:16:29 This beating of hezbollah is going down as one of the great beatings in military history. Since the pager attack started has israel suffered a single kia yet?
Sam Adams Member	Fri Sep 27 23:17:34 I am impressed.
jergul large member	Sat Sep 28 03:53:16 Held hostage assumes "forced to inaction". While Israel was acting in a suitably disproportionate manner. You mind is broken, budy.
Sam Adams Member	Sat Sep 28 06:59:35 Nasrallah confirmed taken out. Seb is your hero corbyn doing ok? This must be very hard on him.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Sat Sep 28 07:19:47 Every street around Khameneis residence was closed off last night.
murder Member	Sat Sep 28 10:10:42 Nasrallah found out. Hezbollah is finding out. Lebanon is finding out. Iran is finding out. :o) This is a small taste of what happens when a superior power has enough of slap fighting with a far weaker opponent. I hope Israel wrecks Hezbollah down to the last man and does the same to Hamas, and doesn't let Joe Biden save either of the two terrorist organizations.
murder Member	Sat Sep 28 10:15:46 Khamenei is in hiding. It seems like Iran may be a little worried. :o)
jergul large member	Sat Sep 28 11:04:24 Nobody aint going to do nothing this close to an election, Israel just got 8,7 billion. Though doing something would just involve delaying the next US tribute payments to Israel slightly.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Sat Sep 28 13:12:17 IRGC general KIA in Beirut.
murder Member	Sat Sep 28 13:16:15 That's a shame. :o)
obaminated Member	Sat Sep 28 14:09:58 Lol jergul. Your beat down these past few days reflects the beat down on hezbollah. It's like poetry. It rhymes. Israel is going to the mattresses and people like you who thought "oh. It's not a big deal that a bunch of Muslims attacked, raped, pillaged and kidnapped a bunch of concert goers." Were so fucking wrong and every rational person in the world knew it was the last straw. But Lunatics like you. Seb. Fagfish. Paramount. You didn't understand it. Sad. Enjoy watching the world course correct by wiping out these scum bags and you having no recourse but to accept it and then find a new cause to virtue signal for. :)
murder Member	Sat Sep 28 15:01:24 "Israel is going to the mattresses and people like you who thought "oh. It's not a big deal that a bunch of Muslims attacked, raped, pillaged and kidnapped a bunch of concert goers." Were so fucking wrong and every rational person in the world knew it was the last straw." It was the equivalent of like a dozen 9/11 attacks, so it should not come as a surprise that Israel reacted like it's an existential threat.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Sat Sep 28 15:57:31 Indeed, but not even a dozen 9/11s fully captures the shock wave it sent, Israel is the size of New Jersey. Anyway. I feel like the Islamic republic needs to respond to this. Right? Hezbollah going up in flames like this, I never imagined it. That is 40 years of investments, the crown achievement, gone in two weeks. Is there any Hezbollah even left? All their leadership are either dead, blind or in wheelchairs. They have no leadership, no coms network to organize whatever is left of their arsenal. Welcome to the churn.
jergul large member	Sat Sep 28 18:05:43 Obam Sounds mostly like you dont have any private pension savings. You should start saving massively. Perhaps not retirement savings in stocks. Our oil fund head tells us to expect the fund to contract as much as 50% in the medium term. He knows shit. Murder It was a pretty massive security failure. Hamas should not have been able to capture the border crossings. Not sue you want to per capita security incidents. Me stubbing my toe is the local equivalent of at least 3 9-11s on a per capita basis.
jergul large member	Sat Sep 28 18:08:25 Nimi Rationally, Iran would employ strategic patience until it firmly secures nuclear ambiguity. Though I am surprised you think Israeli operations will end Libanese or Gazan insurgencies/resistance. It is not usually the end result of Israeli escalation.
obaminated Member	Sat Sep 28 18:37:40 Do you feel this jergul? This is defeat. Enjoy your weekend.
jergul large member	Sat Sep 28 18:38:45 I accept your abject surrender Obam.
murder Member	Sat Sep 28 19:25:26 Hezbollah apparently fired a missile at Jerusalem. Maybe they trying to destroy the Al-Aqsa Mosque so the Jews can rebuild their temple. :o)
Rugian Member	Sat Sep 28 19:33:21 "Maybe they trying to destroy the Al-Aqsa Mosque so the Jews can rebuild their temple. :o)" New Israeli policy: for every Jew that dies at the hands of a Muslim, one stone is removed from the al-Aqsa walls. Let's do it Bibi!
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Sun Sep 29 05:43:55 Jergullegubbe We are so far down the road, buddy, and you are like stuck way back there. Patience run thin, capital of runs dry, time runs out. This isn’t a sandbox game where you have infinite tries! Instead of boring you with facts that will either go over your head or bounce against that thick and calcified brain of yours; prepare to be disappointed.
jergul large member	Sun Sep 29 06:00:38 Nimi Awww, I hurt your feelings. I hope you feel better soon!
murder Member	Sun Sep 29 11:47:46 And now the Houthis. :o)
Sam Adams Member	Sun Sep 29 12:23:56 The IDF is the last fragment of logic in the modern world. Neville biden could learn something.
Paramount Member	Sun Sep 29 15:27:26 Israel assassinated the previous leader of Hezbollah in 1992 and thought that it had won or that they had struck a decisive blow to Heabollah. But what happened? Nasrallah became the new leader and Hezbollah grew stronger and the Israeli colonial occupation forces was forced out of Lebanon in 2000, and then Hezbollah defeated Israel again in 2006. Hezbollah is an indigenous national resistance organization. You can’t defeat it. They will have a new leader, learn from their mistakes and become better, i.e level up, as they did after its previous leader was assassinated in 1992. Nasrallah's Death Mourned by Lebanese Christian Leaders "The symbol is gone, the legend is born, and the resistance continues," http://www...an-leaders-legend-born-1960747 Hezbollah was allied with Christians and fought ISIS and al-Qaida. While the US and Israel was allied with al-Qaida in Syria. The US and Israel are literally still today fighting and killing the enemies of ISIS and al-Qaida.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Sun Sep 29 16:06:45 Jesus christ paramount, you are so fucking lost. This wasn’t the assassination of 1 leader, it was the complete destruction of the entire command and control structure of Hezbollah. 99% of Hezbollah leaders are dead, blind or invalid for life. Their arsenal reduced to scrap. This isn’t going be solved by leveling up as much as rolling a new character and starting with the tutorial again.
murder Member	Sun Sep 29 16:31:15 "Hezbollah is an indigenous national resistance organization. You can’t defeat it." Literally the only thing standing between us and a Hezbollah and Hamas free world is Israel's appetite for negative publicity. They just need to keep in mind that negative publicity blows over pretty quick.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Sun Sep 29 16:49:26 That is a very bizarre statement, while at the same time Paramount is denigrating the indigenous multi-national resistance that Islamic State was against 100 years of colonial meddling. They, briefly, erased the western manufactured Sykes-Picot border between Iraq and Syria. They made videos commemorating the event. I am not saying this to insult you paramount, but you are a clueless moron. You have no idea what you are talking about and you are either unable or unwilling to do the home work.
obaminated Member	Sun Sep 29 21:20:37 It's called cope nim. Jergul and Paramount are desperately coping over what's happening because they have no instructions as to how to react to it. Give them a few days and they'll get marching orders to follow.
Seb Member	Mon Sep 30 02:55:02 Nim: Sure, it's hard to see Hezbollah coming back. But also as Israel appears poised to launch a land invasion of southern Lebanon, it's worth reflecting it is doing so to fight (and hopefully finish off) a paramilitary group formed to fight the the last Israeli occupation of Southern Lebanon. Is there grounds to think, in the long term, this is going to achieve a lasting change? Israel doesn't use it's victories wisely, it tries to reward itself by believing they legitimise it's annexations and ongoing occupation which are driven by self interest. And then when it becomes unsustainable - the dissonance between overwhelming military dominance and supposed security threat requiring occupation - then comes the Netenyahu policies of accomodation of terrorist groups and marginalisation of more peaceful ones to ensure they have no legitimate counter party to negotiate with. It's a strategy that requires constant war to just stand still and maintain settlement policies. And before you start wittering on about my comments on the risk of regional war, the fact that Israel could turn on Hezbollah after enough progress on Hamas it's precisely why there was a strong incentive on Hezbollah to move first. Nasrallah overestimated his strength. The question is, does Iran want to repeat that mistake? You may be right that they accept a strategic defeat. I still think that's a heck of a risk for them. And a heck of a risk for the west if they don't. Meanwhile, the war that actually matters is the one going on in Ukraine.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Mon Sep 30 04:35:34 It’s the Islamic republic that will have a hard time coming back, without it there is no Hezbollah. I am not going repeat all the things I have said elsewhere throughout the year regarding the challange the Islamic republic are and were facing before Hamas and Hezbollah were destroyed and how these groups and a foot hold in the levant was the core of 40 years of investment, emotionally and financially. All gone. It doesn’t matter what the Islamic republic does, the equation has not changed from last time, they are straddling a saw. You move the saw forward or backward, makes no difference. Last week one of their analysts was saying “we need to build our own silicone”. Which is, ok great idea, 40 years too late. “But also as Israel appears poised“ Israel appears very intelligent. If a land incursion is in their favor they will do it, if not then not. I have no idea if they will accept a strategic defeat, what I do know is that they are straddeling a saw, and the saw is already deep up their ass. Their problems started with Suleimani as I have said before. You have this regime that talks like a crazy unpredictable person, I don’t care about the consequences, (like Yemen). However, where the rubber meets the road, they are a calculated and rational actor. This is what the response to Suleimani and april 2024 showed. We talk the talk, but will not walk the walk. Which is a good thing for everyone. And thos eas EXPLICITLY the message given in an interview by Ali Hajizadeh (general of IRGC missile forces), where he want into some detail about the reasoning and rationalization after Suleimani assassination; we would lost 20k people and thrown the country back 20 years, “it made no sense”. Discussions neither Hamas nor the Houthis are having, and that the people of Gaza and Yemen are paying for. Anyone expecting or desiring anything else (a rational Islamic republic) is a socipath who wants to sacrifice the Iranian people and their future. The paramounts and Jerguls of this world, plenty of such “people” on the Iranian left. Filth, human scum. For all the things I could admonish you for, you are not one of those people.
Seb Member	Mon Sep 30 05:54:19 Nim: "If a land incursion is in their favor they will do it, if not then not." I think they are very tactically accomplished, but I think - like Putin - they are terrible at strategy. They are losing support in the US and Europe. Without that support, the ability for the US and EU to ignore and exempt Israel from the rules imposed on the rest of the world will eventually cease. Israel can defeat a military threat, so long as it remains integrated into the West supply chain and military alliances. The failure of Iranian retaliation was as much a success of the US, UK and Jordanians.
Seb Member	Mon Sep 30 06:08:05 Another fact: 60% of current Hamas fighters are orphans from the last conflict. Doing the same thing over and over again and expecting something different isn't sane.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Mon Sep 30 06:19:41 "this is going to achieve a lasting change?" So far Israel has done exactly what I ordained :) I said, you do not need to attack the Islamic republic directly, they are already destroying themselves. You only need to destroy Hamas and Hezbollah. That would be the end of 40 years of slogans, investments and chants. And if it took them 40 years to figure out "we need to manufacture our own chips". What the fuck are we talking about? There are so many things I have heard recently from the horses mouth. Like, apparently there are no contingency plans in the Islamic republic, hence why it took 2 weeks for them to attack Israel. They have no plans to act on. Remember I told you how they viewed the Iraq war, they want the war as a side thing. It just complete the Islamic revolutionary doctrine to have some for of Jihad going on. They have viewed the fight again "Satan" even further removed. They would build these groups like the Houthis, Hezbollah et al, and just give them money and missiles. It has never been on the table to get directly involved. Like I said, their commitment level does not match the rhetoric. Now you have all these devastated young idealists to deal with. To their credit (including Nasrallah) many of them understood and are on record, saying that the response after Suleimani was a dangerous turning point. The second being accepting the Chinese brokered peace deal with the Saudis. The Saudis were smart, they realized going up again the Islamic republic would not be worth it for them, they have far more to lose. They swallowed their pride and neutralized them through diplomacy. These are massive setbacks, in my view it is GG. Islamic republic is not recovering to where can pose a legitimate threat to Israel. Of note is that, several of their devastated analyst, have tried to shift gear, "our war is with the US, we shouldn't kid ourselves" and things like "it would be a thousand times easier to inflict damage on the USA than Israel". So, there is that route, but it sounds even dumber and would hasten their demise even quicker. Maybe with a Harris presidency, there is a chance.
Seb Member	Mon Sep 30 07:19:56 "That would be the end of 40 years of slogans, investments and chants" This is the point where we disagree. It won't (except perhaps in Iran) because those are rooted in the entirely understandable desire for those scared by war to seek revenge, and those who live under oppression to seek autonomy. It might help Iran move beyond Shia fundamentalism, but this will no more solve Israel's fundamental dilemma (which was not created by Iran) any more than detente with Egypt and Jordan and Saudi has. The dilemma is: How does it maintain itself as a democracy and maintain peace while also seeking to annex the west bank and gaza, without resorting to genocide. The only answer they have had to date is to sustain perpetual low-level crisis. In fact, military victory exacerbates that tension by resolving the "crisis" they need to justify their continued oppression of the Palestinians. The last time that this happened, they all but cultivated Hezbollah and Hamas as partners in this dance (whatever the opposite of interlocutor would be). Bibi was an architect of that strategy, which he pursued all the way up to October the 7th. I predict he will do the same again. Anything to avoid losing control of the west bank and gaza and addressing the issue of the illegal settlements.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Mon Sep 30 07:40:28 "It might help Iran move beyond Shia fundamentalism, but this will no more solve Israel's fundamental dilemma (which was not created by Iran) any more than detente with Egypt and Jordan and Saudi has." This is, secondary to my analysis, which is focused on the fate and future of Iran and the entity occupying it. When the Islamic republic goes away, there is no clear contender to take on the mantle of the 70 year fruitless enterprise to finance a militant Palestinian struggle. Maybe one will emerge, maybe one will relapse, I doubt it. The tragedy of the Palestinians has been that nobody actually give a fuck about them, they have been used as pawns, unfortunately turned into these psychotic trouble makers. I do not share the cynical view, the track record of Israel so far has been, you give us peace, we give back your land. That has so far not been tried regarding the Palestinians. If we get there and a general meek and mild Palestinians population are not given the dues, I will go out on the streets and chant from the river to sea. With that said, the Abraham accords have been paused, not scuttled. Jordan, once a mortal enemy, helped defend Israel against Iranian drones, the Jordanian princess was one of the pilots on the air that night. I am optimistic regarding Israelis, Arabs and Iranians ability to stop killing each other. It's a low bar tbh. Look at Egypt, they still hate Israel, they are just not trying to kill them anymore. I think it is achievable.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Mon Sep 30 07:45:47 "to sustain perpetual low-level crisis." He does not have the mandate, anymore than they had the mandate to wage war against Egypt and occupy Sinai after a peace deal or as they vacated Gaza settlements. This is speculation that has no anchor in any historical priors or coherent with Israeli culture and society. It's possible that the nature of Israeli society and Jewish culture suddenly shifts to this predatory, opportunistic scumbag without any care for human suffering that you are describing. I have my doubts.
Rugian Member	Mon Sep 30 08:17:54 "the track record of Israel so far has been, you give us peace, we give back your land. That has so far not been tried regarding the Palestinians." It has been tried before, and the Palestinians have consistently rejected every attempt. Barak offered them 90% of Gaza, Judea, and Samaria, and in response he got the Second Intifada. Sharon withdrew Israel from Gaza, and he was immediately awarded with Hamas taking power there. Neither the Palestinian people nor their leadership want peace. It's so maddening - we're talking about a people who have been completely defeated by Israel in multiple wars, yet the only peace that they'll accept is total victory with all of their demands satisfied. The rest of the world should have told them to eat shit and become realistic decades ago. But the global elites are run by Sebs who have a weird obsession with Palestinians and holding Israel to an impossible standard.
murder Member	Mon Sep 30 08:34:47 "If we get there and a general meek and mild Palestinians population are not given the dues, I will go out on the streets and chant from the river to sea." You may want to get started with the chanting, because Israel isn't giving the Palestinians shit unless the US strong arms them into doing it. Israel is tiny to begin with. Allowing an independent Palestinian state which all but cuts Israel in two is a no go.
Seb Member	Mon Sep 30 11:38:21 Nim: Then we are talking about different things, because I don't really care that much about Iran as it's further away and has less of an impact. Regime change there would be good and useful. But the fundamental problem from a European/Mediterranean perspective is the long term instability created by the failure of Israel to make peace. But as I said, thats very much second order compared to Ukraine and Russia.
Seb Member	Mon Sep 30 11:41:13 Rugian: "Barak offered them 90% of Gaza, Judea, and Samaria" Not really, because he excluded internal contiguity, control of borders, airspace and mineral and water rights under the land. Whatever that is, it's not really a state. More like a long term rental agreement, with Palestinians tennents to Israel as landlord.
Seb Member	Mon Sep 30 11:44:41 "Sharon withdrew Israel from Gaza, and he was immediately awarded with Hamas taking power there." Again, withdraw is doing heavy lifting there. He destroyed all the infrastructure, maintained control of the border, instituted a "diet" - not just a sick joke, they actually calculated the calorific intake the population required to set quotas on imports. And he facilitated the Hamas take over by preventing Fateh from getting supplies and letting Iran continue to arm Hamas. This being deliberate: precisely so he could say exactly what you are saying now. Bibi has followed the same policy and been utterly explicit about it on the record. It's amazing you still keep saying this stuff and expect to be taken seriously.
Paramount Member	Mon Sep 30 12:20:55 ” the complete destruction of the entire command and control structure of Hezbollah. 99% of Hezbollah leaders are dead, blind or invalid for life. Their arsenal reduced to scrap. This isn’t going be solved by leveling up as much as rolling a new character and starting with the tutorial again” It will not be done over night, dumbo. But they will rebuild/reorganize, learn and level up. As they have done previously. Also, don’t you think that Hezbollah has prepared for the loss of senior commanders? People in Hezbollah likely know what to do.
Sam Adams Member	Mon Sep 30 13:08:18 "they actually calculated the calorific intake the population required to set quotas on imports." Well ya, palestinians take all the sugar to make amateur rocket fuel.
Sam Adams Member	Mon Sep 30 14:03:33 Heavy artillery bombardment and helo activity along border, IDF is either going in on the ground or making it look that way, lebanons official army appears to be trying to withdraw without fighting.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Tue Oct 01 04:15:55 Parastupid "But they will rebuild/reorganize, learn and level up." O..o..ok. Whose paying for that, you? Your boy friend? lol :) "don’t you think that Hezbollah has prepared for the loss of senior commanders?" You are still in the denial phase. You still do not understand what has happened. Don't worry you will eventually.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Tue Oct 01 04:23:08 Rugian "It has been tried before, and the Palestinians have consistently rejected every attempt." I think I was not clear enough. What I meant was that "the give us peace we give back your land", that has worked everywhere else has not been attempted *by* the Palestinians, or rather applied to that conflict. This would require the Palestinians to do what Egypt did. They have not.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Tue Oct 01 04:32:43 Seb: "Then we are talking about different things." No, Seb, we are not talking about different things. You are trying to depart from the topic I opined on 10-11 months ago and on which I have now turned out to be so correct I surprise myself. What I foretold, with a great degree of certainty, was how the Axis of Resistance in general and the Islamic Republic in particular would behave. Meanwhile, you were saying there was a real risk of regional war, specifically because the Islamic Republic would feel compelled to go "all in" over the crazy things that the militant groups they sponsor would do. It was never a question of "caring" or "not caring," because I don't care how much you care. Analysis was made, statements were given, and predictions unfolded. That is all. I'm sure there is plenty to disagree over, but my prediction of how the Islamic Republic would behave is not one of them. Additionally I have said and maintain that the losses the Islamic republic would/has now incurred, to its prestige, honor, investments losing Hamas and Hezbollah would hasten its doom. The costs it has extracted from the people of Iran, the hatred they feel towards them, I could write an essay of the risk and threats facing Iran. It is over. I will be surprised if there is an Islamic republic, one that is causing trouble in the region 5-10 years from now (I said it). The fallout has already started. I am however very pessimistic to how process will unfold. A bright future for Iran I do not see, regardless. Massive risks, but I think at this point the *collapse* itself is inevitable. "Failure of Israel to make peace." We can disagree here. I already addressed this; you have it ass-backwards. The enemies of Israel had to come to terms with her existence and accept it. Once they did, there was peace. So, I take that history and then see that the Palestinians have never accepted this because they always had a sponsor willing to use them for their own influence in the region. I simply say, let’s try something different, but not really that different. Once the Palestinians have no one willing to sponsor their armed struggle, only negotiation and peace will remain. "But as I said, that's very much second order compared to Ukraine and Russia." The Islamic entity (right now occupying Iran, in some other time and place, another geography) has its own agenda and is only allied with Russia because it has no choice. It's a multi-front war, and thankfully we do not need to send a single soldier to fight—the Ukrainians and Israelis do that; they just need weapons. Besides, we need to increase our production. The equation of alternative costs presents me with no dilemmas here. The absolute worst problem we have, which goes beyond the Israel-Palestine issue, is that our societies have been infiltrated by Islamists, and we have large constituencies of people who were celebrating the massacre of Israeli civilians. They present an additional front, a fifth column. Fuck them; I will not yield an inch to them. The only thing that can save the Islamic Republic (and by save, I mean keep it on life support for a while longer) is the West. There is a historical opportunity, at low cost to the West, to change the course of Iran and neutralize a major source of evil and trouble in the Middle East. Keep pressuring the Islamic Republic; do not pressure Israel (aside from the optics) to stop. Maintain the carrot for good behavior and leave the Iranian people out of it as much as possible. There are many voices in Iran, even conservative ones, calling for change, and some are even discussing capitulation. Discord has reached new heights.
Seb Member	Tue Oct 01 09:14:27 Nim: Nim, right now, I'm talking about Israel. Earlier, we were talking about the risk of a wider regional conflict and why Biden Admin was urging restraint. Gently, I'd point out that since that conversation started, we've had disruption to commercial shipping due to the Houthis getting involved, limited Iranian retaliatory strikes in Syria, Iraq and an attempt to hit Israel, a ground invasion of Lebanon, and now the US is claiming intel of an imminent ballistic missile attack on Israel. So while your claims that Iran and proxies would avoid going all-in seem so far born out (though in the case of Hezbollah, over confidence rather than lack of confidence seems the bigger driver in their restraint), it's far far from being the case the we are not seeing an escalatory spiral. Whether you agree or not what we have now counts as a regional conflict or a series of limited bilateral ones is, I think, a matter of semantics. I'm not that interested in what this presages for regime change in Iran. It could be a good thing, potentially. Depends on who takes over. However, what I do see is more widespread disruption on Europe's periphery, distraction from the crucial conflict that will determine the trajectory of geopolitics (Ukraine), and that these are likely to persist as Israel has no serious plans to end the instability other than trying to militarily suppress it - which has in the long term, continually failed in the sense that it erupts (and can be provoked to erupt, so weaponised) by our main strategic rivals at the worst possible time. As it likely is now. Iran being taken off the board, if it pans out that way, doesn't really seem to help. That's my perspective, as a European. Your deep and special interest with Iran isn't a framing I share, and so while you want to talk mostly about that, I'm afraid I'm thinking about this from the other end.
Seb Member	Tue Oct 01 09:27:18 Incidentally, to understand where I'm coming from, ask yourself whether the US sees Iran as a major strategic rival, or a source of regional threat to allies to be contained and managed in the context of a strategic rivalry with China and to an increasingly lesser extent Russia? I think it is very much the latter. Even in the context of the "axis of evil" GWOT era, the fundamental idea was "we need to wipe the board clean these distractions so we can focus on China and Pacific". Whether that was "Project for a New American Century" or the "Pivot to Asia" is just two different admins spin on the same grand strategy.
Paramount Member	Tue Oct 01 12:02:25 Nimatzo ” O..o..ok. Whose paying for that, you? Your boy friend? lol :)” More likely your family members and relatives in Iran. Haha
Paramount Member	Tue Oct 01 12:28:23 And perhaps even you yourself, if you send moneys back to your relatives in Iran, like all refugees do. They come to Europe, work, and send their moneys back home. Haha
Hrothgar Member	Tue Oct 01 13:04:10 Iran just launched a bunch of missiles on Israeli civilian areas in some sort of payback for Hezbola's suffering.
jergul large member	Tue Oct 01 13:25:59 Hrothgar I am pretty sure Iran's targetting is way more nuanced than "civilian areas".
Rugian Member	Tue Oct 01 13:34:15 Of course you would think that jergul.
jergul large member	Tue Oct 01 14:10:26 Ruggy You should think that too if you could be rational for a minute. Iranian planners: Lets target that park! Uhm why not the Mossad HQ? Dont be stupid. Target park! That is how you believe the thinking goes?
jergul large member	Tue Oct 01 14:12:35 There is a real cost to underestimating your opposition you know.
jergul large member	Tue Oct 01 14:17:31 This is what Iran says it targetted: "Iran’s IRGC says it targeted 3 Israeli military bases in missile attack From CNN's Leila Gharagozlou Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said it targeted three Israeli military bases around Tel Aviv during a wave of missile launches Tuesday, according to the semi-official Iranian media outlet Mehr News." CNN. Now, why dont you roll out a massive civilian death toll to disprove the idea that Iran was targetting military bases?
Sam Adams Member	Tue Oct 01 14:31:52 The death toll is 0. All iranian missiles aimed for something important were shot down. Those badly aimed and aimed at nothing were not intercepted. Lulz poor soviet bloc jergul again
jergul large member	Tue Oct 01 14:52:16 Kewl that you believe that Sammy. Though if you had known math, you would think something in the region of 10 missiles hit within the CEP of what they were aiming for.
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