Utopia Talk / Politics / Israeli strike on Iran: Pick the date

murder Member	Wed Oct 16 06:34:34 Are they even going to retaliate before the US election? Netanyahu wants Trump to win, so I think he strikes days before the election to put Kamala in a bind. I'm going to say Saturday night Oct 26th.
Rugian Member	Wed Oct 16 06:47:58 (CNN) The Biden administration sent a letter to the Israeli government demanding it act to improve the humanitarian situation in Gaza within the next 30 days or risk violating US laws governing foreign military assistance, suggesting US military aid could be in jeopardy. The Sunday letter, jointly written by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, is addressed to Israeli Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant and Minister of Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer. It marks a significant new step by the US to try to compel Israel to facilitate the delivery of humanitarian aid into Gaza. http://www...an-situation-letter/index.html Just more pro-Islamic culkoldry from our "president" in order to sabotage Israel's war efforts. Nice Anyway, October 23.
murder Member	Wed Oct 16 06:48:59 Any significance to that date, or just a gut feeling?
Rugian Member	Wed Oct 16 07:28:18 Just a guess. We're starting to see detailed strike proposals, so figure it's going to happen sooner rather than later.
jergul large member	Wed Oct 16 08:03:13 Its going to be completely devastating. We all saw how Russia knocked Ukraine out of that war in that highly hyped 3 day missile and bomb attack. Expect the same type of regime changing, peace seeking outcome that history shows short aerial incursions force. /s.
jergul large member	Wed Oct 16 08:04:41 No worries though. I can always trust you lads to hype the crap out of Israel's very limited intermediate range force projection capabilities.
Paramount Member	Wed Oct 16 08:49:29 I think the plan is to wait until after the election because he is going to get a better deal with Trump. Trump is going to join in on the attacks himself and destroy all of Iran's energy facilities and military assets, because "Iran was trying to kill Trump".
murder Member	Wed Oct 16 11:43:18 "Its going to be completely devastating. We all saw how Russia knocked Ukraine out of that war in that highly hyped 3 day missile and bomb attack. Expect the same type of regime changing, peace seeking outcome that history shows short aerial incursions force. /s." Wrong thread or ...?
Rugian Member	Wed Oct 16 11:58:05 Jergul's going through the five stages of grief over the Islamic Republic's inevitable wrecking. That was him in the anger stage. Bargaining should be coming up pretty soon here.
jergul large member	Wed Oct 16 12:26:30 Murder Correct thread. Countries are quite robust and Iran is twice (or more. Depends on how you measure) Ukraine's size. Israel cannot do anything meaningful in the grand scheme of things. At least not without using nukes. Ruggy Lulz. Yes. Wrecked. That is what it going to happen. Israel definitely can do that from 1000 miles away. /s.
kargen Member	Wed Oct 16 12:35:17 If it is going to include drones and/or aircraft then I'm guessing November first. That is when we have the next new moon. If not on the first then somewhere near there. I'm still thinking industrial accident at the nuclear facilities rather than missiles.
jergul large member	Wed Oct 16 13:00:49 The only interesting thing is really if Israel gauges its showmanship correctly. Too little is impossble given how we will hype it not matter what it is. Too much is anything that trigger a new round of tits for tats. On topic question. If Israel wants to give it a serious go, then it will either trigger a tit-for-tat on purpose before the election. But that lets Iran be kingmaker again. Elect trump by responding before the election, or waiting until after the election to give Harris a boost. Or...wait until after the election and hope Trump with follow up Israel after it does something seriously escalatory.
jergul large member	Wed Oct 16 13:02:03 (incredibly escalatory is anything that triggers an Iranian nuclear test).
Sam Adams Member	Wed Oct 16 13:29:05 Nov 1
murder Member	Wed Oct 16 13:43:50 "Correct thread. Countries are quite robust and Iran is twice (or more. Depends on how you measure) Ukraine's size. Israel cannot do anything meaningful in the grand scheme of things. At least not without using nukes." We're predicting dates, not effectiveness. We already know that it's going to be toothless response. But Iran's size is meaningless. Take out their oil production, attack their ports, and destroy their missile and drone production, and Iran is in trouble.
Sam Adams Member	Wed Oct 16 15:48:51 We are so big... we can't fail... attack strait ahead right into their spears. Jergul, advisor to xerxes, thermopylae pass, 480 BC.
jergul large member	Wed Oct 16 16:10:34 Yah, that is pretty much how I expect the spin doctoring to go. Israel will win a battle of Marathon no matter what it does.
Rugian Member	Wed Oct 16 17:25:50 jergul Let's be fair though. Israel could win an actual Battle of Marathon and you'd still be on here claiming that Iran was the victor.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Thu Oct 17 01:31:10 Israel has been conducting operationa inside Iran for years and the Islamic republic has just not said anything. They would have lies about Haniyeh if they could. The reason for this is that they don’t have any effective response, especially not after both Hamas and Hezbollah have been rekt. Expectation already high, hearts of the faithful heavy. The first response, was effective in sensibg a messge to those that needed to know, but publicly it was shrugged. The up coming attack will not be ambigious. Either the Islamic republic responds, then the saw they are sitting on, moves forward. Or, they don’t respond and the saw moves backwards. Either way the saw is going further up their anus. Israel can then focus on destroying Hamas and Hezbollah. Which, if you go back, I said you only need to destroy those two, to hasten the demise of the Islamic republic. Like clock work, everything I expected has unfolded. The Islamic republic supporters are in a highly emotional state, some of them have realized they are ao far behind, others are a bit suicidal and think they should drag the USA into the war, some of them are content with the recent missile attack. Destroy Hamas and Hezbollah and it is gg. Again I can cite you their own analysts and translate the desperation, ranging from suicide attacks, to hijacking and trying to shoot down passenger planes. And those the least deluded, because they have realized how far back they are in capabilities and that to cite one of them “either Hezbollah wins, or it is over”. Not survives, wins.
murder Member	Thu Oct 17 05:52:19 I'm afraid that you're bound to be disappointed.
jergul large member	Thu Oct 17 06:42:11 Ruggy Lets be fair and note that you are projecting what I said. Mark my words, not matter what happens, you will claim it a huge game changer. Like nimi, who thinks something has somehow changed with Israeli operations in Lebanon and Gaza. Iran is on the cusp of something see. Or is it only nimi that sees? Fair enough that Israel is punching way above its weight. But its weight without uppunching is about that of Sweden. You tax dollars at work! They make a difference!
obaminated Member	Thu Oct 17 12:54:08 Probably early next week. Netanyahu wants to get trump in office and will do what he can but he can't be obvious about it. Meaning he won't do a strike on Iran days before the election, it'd be too obvious. He does a strike somewhere between 20-25 and it's far enough away from the election for him to have plausible deniability about alterior motives but close enough to force Harris and trump to take and focus on the israeli/Islamic terrorism war which will be on voters minds on election day. It won't matter. I'm pretty certain trump is going to be win in a landslide. The whole polling system which claims the race is nearly tied, with trump slightly ahead, is flawed because it fails to take into account how many people are going to vote trump but won't say it publicly because the liberal establishment has successfully brainwashed its drones into turning any trump supporter into a facist/racist/sexist pariah. I know plenty of people at the agency I work at who are 100% voting trump for a myriad of reasons but none of us say it around the office or after hours because it isn't worth the headache and potential HR bullshit blowback we would get from the obligatory Karen's who "don't feel comfortable working with someone who thinks that way". Which has happened to a colleague.
murder Member	Thu Oct 17 18:09:57 "I know plenty of people at the agency I work at who are 100% voting trump for a myriad of reasons ..." Racism and misogyny aren't a myriad of reasons. It's just two.
obaminated Member	Thu Oct 17 18:19:19 Believe it or not, no one I know is voting for trump for racial or misogynist reasons. I know it's hard for you to comprehend people voting for someone you disagree with for reasonable and philosophical reasons.
kargen Member	Thu Oct 17 20:01:12 Israel was also punching up in 1967 and three countries had to beg for their land back.
murder Member	Thu Oct 17 22:31:05 "Believe it or not, no one I know is voting for trump for racial or misogynist reasons." Right. Just for reasons that would get them reported to HR. ;o)
murder Member	Thu Oct 17 22:31:48 "Israel was also punching up in 1967 and three countries had to beg for their land back." They should have kept the territory.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Mon Oct 21 01:24:55 Israel destroyed 4 countries militaries *bordering* it, when those regimes had the backing and support of their people to wage war to destroy Israel. The Islamic republic does not have the backing of it’s people, at best 15%. There are so many variables against the Islamic republic, summarized in how slow they have been to react, how poorly the alliance is coordinated. The Islamic republic never wanted or imagined a direct confrontation with Israel, so there are no contingencies, no plans and no coordination to that effect. Funny enough the decision by Trump to take out Suleimani, and the tepid response is what emboldened Israel to hit more and more IRGC commanders. The issue was raised back then as dangerous, but given the lack of openness about failure, it was not taken seriously. Now every halfwit regime supporter os pointing that exact moment out as when it became evident the Islamic repiblic was “resonable” and for whatever reason, not willing to act on the 45 years of Jihadi slogans. This past year, that mentality has evolved to now tell people to shut up with the slogans, you are raising expectations.
murder Member	Fri Oct 25 19:28:40 Israel launches strikes on military targets in Iran, escalating Mideast wars http://apn...20f63542d158ad5999c481e421da00
murder Member	Fri Oct 25 19:32:14 I got the date right, but the time of day wrong. :oP
murder Member	Fri Oct 25 19:34:32 DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — Israel launched airstrikes early Saturday on what it described as military targets in Iran in retaliation for a ballistic missile assault Oct. 1, officials said. There was no immediate information on damage in the Islamic Republic. The attack, threatened for weeks by Israel, comes as the Middle East sits on the precipice of a regional war more than a year after an initial attack by the militant group Hamas on Israel. In the time since, Israel has launched a devastating ground offensive in the Gaza Strip and an invasion of neighboring Lebanon, targeting militants long armed and aided by Tehran. Israel’s military described the attack Saturday as “precise strikes on military targets in Iran,” without immediately elaborating. “The regime in Iran and its proxies in the region have been relentlessly attacking Israel since Oct. 7 ... including direct attacks from Iranian soil,” an Israeli military statement said. “Like every other sovereign country in the world, the State of Israel has the right and the duty to respond.” In Tehran, the Iranian capital, the sound of explosions could be heard, with state-run media there initially acknowledging the blasts and saying some of the sounds came from air defense systems around the city. A Tehran resident told The Associated Press that at least seven explosions could be heard, which rattled the surrounding area. The resident spoke on condition of anonymity for fear of reprisals. International flights began diverting around western Iran as news of the strikes broke, flight-tracking data showed. Meanwhile, state media in Syria described its air defenses as targeting “hostile targets” there as well. Iran has launched two ballistic missile attacks on Israel in recent months amid the ongoing Israel-Hamas war in the Gaza Strip that began with the Hamas attack on Israel on Oct. 7, 2023. That initial attack killed some 1,200 people and saw 250 others taken hostage back to the seaside enclave. In the time since, more than 42,000 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza, according to local health officials who don’t delineate between civilians and combatants. Israeli military operations in the West Bank in the time since have killed hundreds more. Israel also has launched a ground invasion of Lebanon and a series of punishing airstrikes that have rattled that country. The strike Saturday happened just as U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken was arriving back in the U.S. after a tour of the Middle East where he and other U.S. officials had warned Israel to tender a response that would not further escalate the conflict in the region and exclude nuclear sites in Iran. White House National Security Council spokesman Sean Savett said in a statement that “we understand that Israel is conducting targeted strikes against military targets in Iran” and referred reporters to the Israeli government for more details on their operation. Two U.S. officials said the U.S. was notified by Israel in advance of the strikes. They said there was no U.S. involvement in the operation. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss an ongoing operation. Israel had vowed to hit Iran hard following a massive Iranian missile barrage on Oct. 1. Iran said its barrage was in response to deadly Israeli attacks against its proxy in Lebanon, Hezbollah, and it has promised to respond to any retaliatory strikes. Israel and Iran have been bitter foes since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Israel considers Iran to be its greatest threat, citing its leaders’ calls for Israel’s destruction, their support for anti-Israel militant groups and the country’s nuclear program. Israel and Iran have been locked in a yearslong shadow war. A suspected Israeli assassination campaign has killed top Iranian nuclear scientists. Iranian nuclear installations have been hacked or sabotaged, all in mysterious attacks blamed on Israel. Meanwhile, Iran has been blamed for a series of attacks on shipping in the Middle East in recent years, which later grew into the attacks by Yemen’s Houthi rebels on shipping through the Red Sea corridor. But since Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack, the battle has increasingly moved into the open. Israel has recently turned its attention to Hezbollah, which has been firing rockets into Israel since the war in Gaza began. Throughout the year, a number of top Iranian military figures have been killed in Israeli strikes in Syria and Lebanon. Iran fired a wave of missiles and drones at Israel last April after two Iranian generals were killed in an apparent Israeli airstrike in Syria on an Iranian diplomatic post. The missiles and drones caused minimum damage, and Israel — under pressure from Western countries to show restraint — responded with a limited strike. But after Iran’s early October missile strike, Israel promised a tougher response. http://apn...20f63542d158ad5999c481e421da00
jergul large member	Fri Oct 25 20:33:34 Murder Very impressive!
murder Member	Sat Oct 26 03:57:42 "Very impressive!" Not really. The strike appears to have been extremely limited, and so irrelevant to the US election. This won't put Kamala in any kind of bind, or help Trump. I basically just pulled the winning number out of a hat.
jergul large member	Sat Oct 26 04:44:27 Lucky is a quality Napoleon preferred his general's to have. Yah to the rest. The only interesting thing about the strikes is how finely tailored they are. Ideally just under the limit that would trigger an Iranian tit-for-tat. Hopefully Israel got that part right.
jergul large member	Sat Oct 26 04:44:42 generals*
murder Member	Sat Oct 26 04:52:03 I suspect that this is just another "look we can hit you" strike. Supposedly they targeted Iranian missile and drone production facilities. We'll see if there was any significant damage.
jergul large member	Sat Oct 26 04:58:06 Thanks for not spinning the crap out of whatever Israel claims it has done. I don't know what "significant" could even look like. Iran is a large, populous and heavily industrialized country.
murder Member	Sat Oct 26 06:25:15 Significant meaning destroying the facilities they targeted, and whether they targeted enough of them to dent Iran's ability to produce more missiles and drones.
Paramount Member	Sat Oct 26 08:52:02 ” Israel launched airstrikes early Saturday on what it described as military targets in Iran” What hospitals and kindergardens would that be?
Paramount Member	Sat Oct 26 09:51:28 Israel: ”our strike will be precise, powerful, devastating and surprising!” Really? What attack? No one noticed anything. Most likely Israel hit a sheep farm that was disguised to look like a missile facility. Iran has numerous of these ”dummy targets” …chicken farms, sheep farms etc across its country. The strike wasn’t surprising either. Everyone knew it was coming.
Paramount Member	Sat Oct 26 09:55:46 Anyhoo… Iran does now have the right to defend themselves.
Asgard Member	Sat Oct 26 13:03:30 Interesting Iran attacks israel, unprovoked - according to Paragay, Israel has no right to respond, and Iran had every right to do so. Israel attacks in retaliation - according to Parafag, Iran has a right to respond, and israel had no right to do so. I would like to hear Parabuttraped’s logical reasoning but I know there aren’t any.
Asgard Member	Sat Oct 26 13:09:49 Also something interesting, I noticed that whatever Iranian media says, Jergul repeats. Iranian TV: “Haha, no damage, everything else is propaganda Jergul: “Haha, no damage, everything else is propaganda” I would have thought that the renowned education system in Scandinavia teaches critical thinking.
Asgard Member	Sat Oct 26 13:11:56 That’s also a very interesting point, I remember that when Israel said there was very little damage in Iran’s attacks, both Jerfuck and Parafuck claimed the damage was huge, relying solely on Iranian and Russian propaganda. So weird…
Asgard Member	Sat Oct 26 13:13:47 I’m still waiting for Parasisay to explain how the IDF chief of staff is still alove, because he laughed his ass Off claiming he was dead, relying on Hizballah propaganda Will he? No? Huh…
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Sat Oct 26 13:26:48 “Asgard Member Sat Oct 26 13:09:49 Also something interesting, I noticed that whatever Iranian media says, Jergul repeats.“ lol indeed, this has occurred to me as well. The dumbest Islamic republic supporters work at IRIB, the public service broadcast system. Anyway, the targets hit according to Axios was 12 missile fuel sites, all S300 around Tehran, a drine factory and a nuclear research site in Parchin.
Asgard Member	Sat Oct 26 13:59:33 Uea So let’s assume for the sake of argument, that Israel did in fact do a lot of real damage, like kill off Iran’s air defenses- Iran has only one choice: laugh about it and say Israel did nondamage. They will never ever admit any real damage was done. And that is what their TV and newspapers will say. Just like Russia does whenever Ukraine does something awesome. And fools like Parafapp and Jerdiot will fall for it
Paramount Member	Sat Oct 26 14:42:55 Assgay: ”Iran attacks israel, unprovoked” Israel attacked Iran first when they attacked Iran’s embassy building in Syria. Iran’s attack was a response to Israel’s attack. A retaliatory self defense attack. Israel has now chosen to continue to attack Iran. Iran has the right to continue to defend itself. They will have to destroy all of Israel now. Particularly all hospitals, schools, every home where the Israeli terrorists live in, and every kindergarden where there is a Israeli command centre, and all of Israels infrastructure of terror. Israel can nuke Iran if they wish. No one would care. They can do it either before Iran destroys Israel, or try to do it afterwards, when there nuclear facilities and shit already been hit.
Paramount Member	Sat Oct 26 14:58:43 By the way, Assgay… why have you not gone to Lebanon to defend yourself?
jergul large member	Sat Oct 26 15:19:54 Asgard I do not follow the Iranian media, so perhaps you should be worried. Its not good when the truth has an opposition bias. We know from Ukraine that seriously degrading air defences is hideously difficult and takes years, not months, days, or hours, so the assumption has to be that "nope, the IDF did not do that". Do you have any other cope cages you would like to share with us, or are you willing to accept the counter strike was performance art calibrated carefully to avoid further escalation? You do have a PM that really, really wants to stay out of jail after all. That is all you really need to know about the necessity of ongoing combat operations.
jergul large member	Sat Oct 26 15:23:16 Para: hush. We have enough frontline reports by now to know that Asgard is making the correct moral choice to avoid military service.
Asgard Member	Sat Oct 26 15:24:58 If you ever read anything I wrote here you would know I want Bibi in jail more than anyone. But how is that at all relevant to Iran? Brainless
Asgard Member	Sat Oct 26 15:26:52 Are you talking about me personally? I’m already above reserve duty age, and I was never a Combatant in the IDF, merely a warehouse drone
Asgard Member	Sat Oct 26 15:30:44 Oh and you are right, I am worried - it seems Norwegian media is owned by the Russians who deliver Iranian propaganda. Worrying indeed. Stay safe Jergul
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