Utopia Talk / Politics / holy shit uk

Sam Adams Member	Mon May 12 21:41:15 Is this real? http://x.com/10DowningStreet/status/1921894529671545117 That cant be real can it? England... the land of sebs... throwing away his entire ideology and doing something right? Nope i dont believe it. Cant be real.
Seb Member	Tue May 13 01:18:26 Every govt since New Labour have said something like this. And then they wind up making a bunch of exceptions because an ageing population requires immigration. It'll go the same way. Govts need to be honest about tradeoffs, not appeal to stupid people like Sam by pretending they don't exist.
Seb Member	Tue May 13 02:36:09 Let's look at that twitter thread line by line and see how it will go. "For too long businesses were actively encouraged to bring in lower paid people rather than invest in our own people" This isn't actually true though. Successive govts have introduced policies designed to force improved training, but in any case the primary barrier is demand and low pay, largely in public sectors like social care where the labour price is effectively or directly set by govt which refuses to pay higher. The result is locals don't want to do the job. For some other sectors, such as medial work, the domestic labour supply is again predominantly set by govt in terms of the number of places available in training post degree. "We are raising the skills threshold to degree level" An interesting choice. The govt is also pledged to massively increase house building, but there's insufficient labour force to do so and not enough time to train one up (and also not a lot of young Brits interested in going into such jobs as there are higher paid jobs they can do). The Reform attack line here will be "so you want British kids to do shit, low skilled jobs while the globalist elite take the best ones?" "We are increasing the immigration skills charge" So, for social care where we have a shortage of 100,000 workers, the proposal is to not only cut the labour supply in the hope wages rise high enough to attract young Brits, but also simultaneously make extract a cut from social care firms making it harder to extract wages. At the same time budgets for social care will be pressured by local spending cuts. And their election manifesto was to fix social care. Hmm. I can see some small contradictions here. "And for the first time, adult dependents on those routes will also be required to have a basic understanding of English." Totemic. No real evidence that this is a major problem (other countries have mandatory language lessons for people after they arrive - this will just stop people making the UK a destination, which if you are prepared to ignore the economic consequences of trying to shut down visa based jobs, fine, I guess. "Care workers from overseas have made a huge contribution, but too many have been subject to abuse and exploitation. We’re moving away from our dependence on overseas workers" The social care firms will need to use other visa routes, so that really just adds friction without changing the outcome. Lovely to say "we are moving away from our dependence" but actually they have no such plans: * No new funding to raise wages * No plan to cut demand (put old people with senile dementia on the mountain to be taken by the wolves or winter?) * No plan to handle the bed-blocking issue (no social care to discharge very elderly acute patients to) * No clarity on where domestic labour supply will come from for this sector. I'm short, no, that aren't moving away from the dependency so they'll be faced with the inevitable dilemma: health and social care crisis driving a huge swing to reform or find a way around these new immigration policies to hire immigrants. "We’re rolling out Digital IDs and eVisas for all overseas citizens. Making it easier for Immigration Enforcement Officers to track down and take action against those who try to stay here illegally." Good idea, but will only work if rolled out to the whole citizenship (over stayers pretend they have citizenship - its proof of citizenship you need, not proof of having a visa, which you have already in the form of biometric permit - digitising this is trivial and won't change much). The bulk of net migration is still from people legally entering, not a lack of people who legally entered failing to leave. In short, a set of incoherent policies that predictably appeal to folks like Sam that sunny actually understand how the economy works. Net migration is set to shrink over the coming years anyway, so they may be able to claim some credit on that front; but the impact on social care and house building will be significant and likely cause the other govt objectives to fail. One way or another they drive disenchantment and people towards reform, who will suffer the same defeat. The choices are really quite simple: Higher public expenditure to pay for higher labour costs in health, social care; inflation from higher construction costs; or accept migration. Until someone has that conversation with the public rather than pretending the dilemma doesn't exist, you'll get this pattern of every incoming govt promising to crack down in migration then backing off.
Seb Member	Tue May 13 02:36:12 Let's look at that twitter thread line by line and see how it will go. "For too long businesses were actively encouraged to bring in lower paid people rather than invest in our own people" This isn't actually true though. Successive govts have introduced policies designed to force improved training, but in any case the primary barrier is demand and low pay, largely in public sectors like social care where the labour price is effectively or directly set by govt which refuses to pay higher. The result is locals don't want to do the job. For some other sectors, such as medial work, the domestic labour supply is again predominantly set by govt in terms of the number of places available in training post degree. "We are raising the skills threshold to degree level" An interesting choice. The govt is also pledged to massively increase house building, but there's insufficient labour force to do so and not enough time to train one up (and also not a lot of young Brits interested in going into such jobs as there are higher paid jobs they can do). The Reform attack line here will be "so you want British kids to do shit, low skilled jobs while the globalist elite take the best ones?" "We are increasing the immigration skills charge" So, for social care where we have a shortage of 100,000 workers, the proposal is to not only cut the labour supply in the hope wages rise high enough to attract young Brits, but also simultaneously make extract a cut from social care firms making it harder to extract wages. At the same time budgets for social care will be pressured by local spending cuts. And their election manifesto was to fix social care. Hmm. I can see some small contradictions here. "And for the first time, adult dependents on those routes will also be required to have a basic understanding of English." Totemic. No real evidence that this is a major problem (other countries have mandatory language lessons for people after they arrive - this will just stop people making the UK a destination, which if you are prepared to ignore the economic consequences of trying to shut down visa based jobs, fine, I guess. "Care workers from overseas have made a huge contribution, but too many have been subject to abuse and exploitation. We’re moving away from our dependence on overseas workers" The social care firms will need to use other visa routes, so that really just adds friction without changing the outcome. Lovely to say "we are moving away from our dependence" but actually they have no such plans: * No new funding to raise wages * No plan to cut demand (put old people with senile dementia on the mountain to be taken by the wolves or winter?) * No plan to handle the bed-blocking issue (no social care to discharge very elderly acute patients to) * No clarity on where domestic labour supply will come from for this sector. I'm short, no, that aren't moving away from the dependency so they'll be faced with the inevitable dilemma: health and social care crisis driving a huge swing to reform or find a way around these new immigration policies to hire immigrants. "We’re rolling out Digital IDs and eVisas for all overseas citizens. Making it easier for Immigration Enforcement Officers to track down and take action against those who try to stay here illegally." Good idea, but will only work if rolled out to the whole citizenship (over stayers pretend they have citizenship - its proof of citizenship you need, not proof of having a visa, which you have already in the form of biometric permit - digitising this is trivial and won't change much). The bulk of net migration is still from people legally entering, not a lack of people who legally entered failing to leave. In short, a set of incoherent policies that predictably appeal to folks like Sam that sunny actually understand how the economy works. Net migration is set to shrink over the coming years anyway, so they may be able to claim some credit on that front; but the impact on social care and house building will be significant and likely cause the other govt objectives to fail. One way or another they drive disenchantment and people towards reform, who will suffer the same defeat. The choices are really quite simple: Higher public expenditure to pay for higher labour costs in health, social care; inflation from higher construction costs; or accept migration. Until someone has that conversation with the public rather than pretending the dilemma doesn't exist, you'll get this pattern of every incoming govt promising to crack down in migration then backing off.
jergul large member	Tue May 13 03:38:09 The UK is following the same plan as the US. Make the country less attractive to immigrants by sucking and blowing more.
Seb Member	Tue May 13 04:21:06 Pretty much. They did actually try that explicitly for a while. So you had the DCMS promoting the UK as a tourist destination in the same countries where the Home office was also running publicity campaigns about how shit the UK was for migrants. Sam is basically the same intellectual calibre and sensibilities of Home office top staff.
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