Utopia Talk / Politics / Trump surrenders to Putin

murder rank	Fri Nov 21 05:41:30 Trump's full 28-point Ukraine-Russia "peace" plan The full plan 1. Ukraine's sovereignty will be confirmed. 2. A comprehensive non-aggression agreement will be concluded between Russia, Ukraine and Europe. All ambiguities of the last 30 years will be considered settled. 3. It is expected that Russia will not invade neighboring countries and NATO will not expand further. 4. A dialogue will be held between Russia and NATO, mediated by the United States, to resolve all security issues and create conditions for de-escalation in order to ensure global security and increase opportunities for cooperation and future economic development. 5. Ukraine will receive reliable security guarantees. A U.S. official told Axios this would be an explicit security guarantee for Ukraine from the U.S., the first time that has officially been on the table during these talks, though the proposal does not offer further details on what it entails. 6. The size of the Ukrainian Armed Forces will be limited to 600,000 personnel. Note: Ukraine's army currently has 800,000-850,000 personnel, and had around 250,000 beforethe war, according to a Ukrainian official. 7. Ukraine agrees to enshrine in its constitution that it will not join NATO, and NATO agrees to include in its statutes a provision that Ukraine will not be admitted in the future. 8. NATO agrees not to station troops in Ukraine. Note: NATO countries including France and the U.K. have been working on separate proposals that would include small numbers of European troops on Ukrainian soil after the war. This plan appears to disregard that possibility. 9. European fighter jets will be stationed in Poland. 10. The U.S. guarantee: The U.S. will receive compensation for the guarantee; If Ukraine invades Russia, it will lose the guarantee; If Russia invades Ukraine, in addition to a decisive coordinated military response, all global sanctions will be reinstated, recognition of the new territory and all other benefits of this deal will be revoked; If Ukraine launches a missile at Moscow or St. Petersburg without cause, the security guarantee will be deemed invalid. 11. Ukraine is eligible for EU membership and will receive short-term preferential access to the European market while this issue is being considered. 12. A powerful global package of measures to rebuild Ukraine, including but not limited to: The creation of a Ukraine Development Fund to invest in fast-growing industries, including technology, data centers, and artificial intelligence. The United States will cooperate with Ukraine to jointly rebuild, develop, modernize, and operate Ukraine's gas infrastructure, including pipelines and storage facilities. Joint efforts to rehabilitate war-affected areas for the restoration, reconstruction and modernization of cities and residential areas. Infrastructure development. Extraction of minerals and natural resources. The World Bank will develop a special financing package to accelerate these efforts. 13. Russia will be reintegrated into the global economy: The lifting of sanctions will be discussed and agreed upon in stages and on a case-by-case basis. The United States will enter into a long-term economic cooperation agreement for mutual development in the areas of energy, natural resources, infrastructure, artificial intelligence, data centers, rare earth metal extraction projects in the Arctic, and other mutually beneficial corporate opportunities. Russia will be invited to rejoin the G8. 14. Frozen funds will be used as follows: $100 billion in frozen Russian assets will be invested in US-led efforts to rebuild and invest in Ukraine; The US will receive 50% of the profits from this venture. Europe will add $100 billion to increase the amount of investment available for Ukraine's reconstruction. Frozen European funds will be unfrozen. The remainder of the frozen Russian funds will be invested in a separate US-Russian investment vehicle that will implement joint projects in specific areas. This fund will be aimed at strengthening relations and increasing common interests to create a strong incentive not to return to conflict. 15. A joint American-Russian working group on security issues will be established to promote and ensure compliance with all provisions of this agreement. 16. Russia will enshrine in law its policy of non-aggression towards Europe and Ukraine. 17. The United States and Russia will agree to extend the validity of treaties on the non-proliferation and control of nuclear weapons, including the START I Treaty. Note: New START, the last major U.S.-Russia arms control treaty, is due to expire in February. 18. Ukraine agrees to be a non-nuclear state in accordance with the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. 19. The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant will be launched under the supervision of the IAEA, and the electricity produced will be distributed equally between Russia and Ukraine — 50:50. 20. Both countries undertake to implement educational programs in schools and society aimed at promoting understanding and tolerance of different cultures and eliminating racism and prejudice: Ukraine will adopt EU rules on religious tolerance and the protection of linguistic minorities. Both countries will agree to abolish all discriminatory measures and guarantee the rights of Ukrainian and Russian media and education. (Note: Similar ideas were incorporated into Trump's 2020 Israel-Palestine peace plan). All Nazi ideology and activities must be rejected and prohibited. 21. Territories: Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk will be recognized as de facto Russian, including by the United States. Kherson and Zaporizhzhia will be frozen along the line of contact, which will mean de facto recognition along the line of contact. Russia will relinquish other agreed territories it controls outside the five regions. Ukrainian forces will withdraw from the part of Donetsk Oblast that they currently control, and this withdrawal zone will be considered a neutral demilitarized buffer zone, internationally recognized as territory belonging to the Russian Federation. Russian forces will not enter this demilitarized zone. 22. After agreeing on future territorial arrangements, both the Russian Federation and Ukraine undertake not to change these arrangements by force. Any security guarantees will not apply in the event of a breach of this commitment. 23. Russia will not prevent Ukraine from using the Dnieper River for commercial activities, and agreements will be reached on the free transport of grain across the Black Sea. 24. A humanitarian committee will be established to resolve outstanding issues: All remaining prisoners and bodies will be exchanged on an 'all for all' basis. All civilian detainees and hostages will be returned, including children. A family reunification program will be implemented. Measures will be taken to alleviate the suffering of the victims of the conflict. 25. Ukraine will hold elections in 100 days. 26. All parties involved in this conflict will receive full amnesty for their actions during the war and agree not to make any claims or consider any complaints in the future. 27. This agreement will be legally binding. Its implementation will be monitored and guaranteed by the Peace Council, headed by President Donald J. Trump. Sanctions will be imposed for violations. Note: This is the same general structure Trump proposed to govern the Gaza peace agreement. 28. Once all parties agree to this memorandum, the ceasefire will take effect immediately after both sides retreat to agreed points to begin implementation of the agreement. https://ww...ne-peace-plan-28-points-russia
Pillz rank	Fri Nov 21 07:52:41 Ukraine is lost. Just a matter of how much land you want to give to russia by the end of it.
Hrothgar rank	Fri Nov 21 08:07:50 Pillz still thinks Russia is winning 4 years later. This all just a matter of how bad Russia lost at this point. With an independent, EU member Ukraine, Russia has utterly lost it's goals of the war. And it's very telling that there is disappointment in Ukraine they aren't likely to keep all of their original boarders considering that wasn't even a pipe dream when this all started.
Seb rank	Fri Nov 21 14:31:18 I think this deal is going nowhere. Ukraine isn't going to agree to abandon it's strongest defensive position, get rid of its army and its ability to strike Russia. And Europe isn't going to agree to let Russia rejoin the global economy or unfreeze russian assets either. That would leave Russia to continue to build military strength and, from a secured position in Ukraine, pivot to the baltics. I'm not even going to even consider American security guarantees, other than to note: why would anyone compensate the US for guarantees after it so conspicuously didn't follow through on the Budapest ones? If US security guarantees here were real, we'd be talking about NATO membership. As we are not, it's clear they aren't real guarantees in the eyes of either the US or Russia - so why would anyone pay anything for them?
Rugian rank	Fri Nov 21 14:38:30 "Ukraine isn't going to agree to abandon it's strongest defensive position, get rid of its army and its ability to strike Russia. And Europe isn't going to agree to let Russia rejoin the global economy or unfreeze russian assets either." I like how you think that either Europe or Ukraine are in a position to dictate terms. If Europe wanted a seat at the negotiating table, they shouldnt have spent decades intentionally underinvesting in their militaries in explicit violation of their NATO treaty obligations. No military capacity to support Ukraine equals no say in how Ukraine turns out.
Forwyn rank	Fri Nov 21 15:42:56 No point in this proposal is particularly damning; there is give and take on both sides. But selective self-determination extremists will continue to screech about unrealistic goals.
Paramount rank	Fri Nov 21 15:43:23 If EU really wanted to help and Ukraine and defeat Russia they would have put troops in Ukraine and attacked Russia. But all they can do is to talk tough and cry at the USA. Also, if the US were really interested in defeating Russia they too would have attacked Russia. But the Americans are pussys.
Rugian rank	Fri Nov 21 15:47:11 Paramount More like, American military resources are not infinite and the Pacific is where they have the most value.
murder rank	Fri Nov 21 16:47:36 Why is anyone even paying attention to Trump? The US is anon-participant in the war. I don't even know why Zelenskyy takes his calls. -
murder rank	Fri Nov 21 16:49:40 It's funny how quickly Trump's tough guy "we're going to sanction the Russians" crap faded away once nobody bought it. Now he's not even pretending anymore. He just rolled over and let Putin rub his belly. -
Seb rank	Fri Nov 21 16:52:57 Rugian: "I like how you think that either Europe or Ukraine are in a position to dictate terms." I like how you think the US is, given you no longer even provide military aid. Sure your can stop letting Europe even buy US military kit. That's about it.
Seb rank	Fri Nov 21 16:54:11 Forwyn: "No point in this proposal is particularly damning" Clueless take. Russia could reinvade the moment Ukraine implements it and have a good chance if taking the rest of the country.
Seb rank	Fri Nov 21 16:59:30 "This agreement will be legally binding. Its implementation will be monitored and guaranteed by the Peace Council, headed by President Donald J. Trump. Sanctions will be imposed for violations." I wouldn't trust the Trump to honour this even if there was a dead-man's switch that would kill his entire family if he failed to act; let alone whomever succeeds him. America has already proven its bad faith on his by failing to follow through on the Budapest accords.
murder rank	Fri Nov 21 16:59:53 Everyone seems to have missed this, so I will highlight it ... 4. A dialogue will be held between Russia and NATO, mediated by the United States That's Trump saying the quiet part out loud. -
Forwyn rank	Fri Nov 21 17:04:17 "Russia could reinvade the moment Ukraine implements it and have a good chance if taking the rest of the country." They could do that with any agreement that doesn't mandate full Russian disarmament, which is not on the table unless it follows a nuclear war.
Pillz rank	Fri Nov 21 17:04:30 Hrothgar repeating the same denial and cope for 4 years because it reality strings
Forwyn rank	Fri Nov 21 17:08:32 "failing to follow through on the Budapest accords." The UK also signed the Budapest accords. "This all just a matter of how bad Russia lost at this point." 10,000 Ukrainian soldiers about to be fully encircled in Myrnohrad and systematically picked off building by building, as has happened repeatedly over the last several months: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LkPu_cBiDYc
Seb rank	Fri Nov 21 17:21:03 Murder: Yeah I caught that too, but it's not really surprising and NATO has been quietly upskilling and transferring US functions to European partners since the last year of the Biden admin. Including before he lost which is interesting in some ways. Forwyn: "They could do that with any agreement" No, they couldn't do that if Ukraine maintained it's army, ability to strike deep into Russia, and chain of fortified positions. The cost of attrition to make minute advances at the moment is immense for Russia and it would take decades with no obvious route to a major breakthrough. That's why Russia wants all of those gone as part of the deal, so it can then reinvade after Ukraine's been castrated. Re Budapest: Yeah, which is why the UK proposals now involve putting boots on the ground and tangible tripwires that would force escalation. But the UK isn't asking Ukraine to disarm on the vague promise of support either. It wouldn't be credible even with the much stronger guarantee we are now offering. The US on the other hand is asking for Ukraine to significantly weaken itself *and pay* for guarantees of the same nature as the Budapest accords. You have to admit it is not a compelling pitch even if you had a president with the same moral clarity and balls on this kind of issue as the likes of Regan. But those days are long gone, and coming from the US now it's a joke, and from Trump it only merits a blank stare.
Seb rank	Fri Nov 21 17:26:56 The difference between European peace proposals is they are based on making Ukraine strong enough to resist further Russian aggression itself, with European guarantee as extra; rather than weakening it in exchange for a guarantee. But you know what, this is the third attempt the clown car that is the Trump admin have put together in this space. It's as likely to succeed as the first two and it's somewhat daft to get too sucked into it. Ukraine's and Europe will play along for a bit negotiating the Americans demands down, then Putin will humiliate the US in some way or another (her can't resist, and to some degree that's the whole point of these exercises: demonstrate how the US needs Russia to get things done, not the other way around, and can be ignored).
Pillz rank	Fri Nov 21 17:31:50 "The cost of attrition to make minute advances at the moment is immense for Russia and it would take decades with no obvious route to a major breakthrough." Cost is immense, yes. 3-5 years, this is over. Not decades. The Ukrainians can not hold, seb. This isn't political. It is just reality. We've watched identical Ukrainian mistakes for 4 years. The same steady Russian advances. And it's *accelerating*, because the AFU hasn't got manpower. Unless you plan to send a million man army to hold the front, they don't have decades.
jergul rank	Fri Nov 21 18:20:06 Seb Collapse is like bankrupcy. First slowly, then all of a sudden. There is a very real risk Ukraine's ability to resist will decrease substantially very soon. For Ukraine, the best day for a peace agreement was yesterday. It has been that way for a while.
jergul rank	Fri Nov 21 18:27:08 As to the point themselves, this is probably something Russia would agree to, but unhappily. Some of it is pure fantasy incidentally. Ukraine cannot affort a 600k strong army in peacetime. It could barely afford a 200k army before 2022 and its economic outlook is much worse now.
jergul rank	Fri Nov 21 18:28:31 The point of including it in a deal is to ensure compliance over the short term and remove revanchist options in the next year or so.
Paramount rank	Fri Nov 21 18:34:30 Ukraine made a mistake back in 2022 by listening to the Americans and the Brits. If Ukraine had signed the agreement that they were negotiating together with the Russians in Istanbul, Ukraine would have been better off today and hundred of thousands Ukrainians would still be alive.
TheChildren rank	Fri Nov 21 18:40:04 is lost is like wut everybody been sayin since 2023... was lost then, is still lost now. aint no world reality where it gets unlost yall just didnt wanna believe it. where them wunderweapons now. all being paraded in moscow thats where but no worries, they will reject then da whole circus will begin a new.
TheChildren rank	Fri Nov 21 18:44:05 everybody who knew wut going on, been sayin it. douglas been sayin it 4 years. but da sam adams put there hands on there ears and screamed see nottin, hear nottin, dunt wanna know nottin. now here we are.
Seb rank	Fri Nov 21 18:55:27 Pillz: Still a better option for Ukraine though isn't it? Because we both know Russia will attack them again, so it's fight now with what they've got, or fight again when the terms are even better for Russia. Jergul: Even if you are correct, dismantling their ability to resist still won't make sense if there's literally nothing but Donald Trump's word that Russia won't invade again, which they will. It's fight now, or fight later weaker and having dismantled all the systems of support and all pressure on Russia removed.
Seb rank	Fri Nov 21 18:56:02 Pillz: Still a better option for Ukraine though isn't it? Because we both know Russia will attack them again, so it's fight now with what they've got, or fight again when the terms are even better for Russia. Jergul: Even if you are correct, dismantling their ability to resist still won't make sense if there's literally nothing but Donald Trump's word that Russia won't invade again, which they will. It's fight now, or fight later weaker and having dismantled all the systems of support and all pressure on Russia removed.
jergul rank	Fri Nov 21 19:15:23 The framework deal has been set for the next 3 years. It means that Russia will keep any advances it makes in two oblasts at the very least. Do you really want to bet Odesa on me being wrong?
Pillz rank	Fri Nov 21 19:58:38 "Still a better option for Ukraine though isn't it? Because we both know Russia will attack them again, so it's fight now with what they've got, or fight again when the terms are even better for Russia." What? They haven't got options other than those Russia agrees to, else the present situation continues. And the current situation is very unideal for Ukraine. So the number one problem facing Ukraine right now is manpower. The second problem is equipment and supplies. The third problem is logistics. So Ukraine's manpower problem comes from the fact that one they don't have enough people. Two people are well aware of the fact that they're certainly going to be sent to their deaths. So desertion rates are incredibly high. And this has been spoken about by both Ukrainian reporters and Ukrainian soldiers, Ukrainian officers, even Ukrainian politicians. I think in some publications have mentioned it. Desertion. What we saw in Myrnohad a couple of weeks ago was a bunch of Ukrainians being told, hold, supplies will get there when they get there, while they're on radio saying we have no ammunition, we have no bullets, we have no water, we have no food. And Ukrainian officer, whoever on the other end just told them, stop being bitches and wait. Russia, who intercepted this, dropped a bunch of leaflets, "surrender, we won't hurt you", and they surrendered. This is something that repeats again and again and again. I posted in the last thread we had on Ukraine. Mark Rubio saying that the life expectancy for anti-air defense systems in Ukraine is two to three weeks and this has been a problem for two to three years. So that's your second problem is equipment. Ukraine has a lot of drones. It doesn't have much of anything else and there's not much more anybody can send it. and when you do, if you do, Russia has made it a point of policy to seek out and destroy it and apparently they're succeeding, as if we didn't already know that. So a lot of drones means that Ukraine does a good job of defending relatively wide open spaces and tree lines. But they can only cover so much space with so many drones at once. And urban fighting is really not a strong suit for drones, because buildings provide All sorts of obstacles and cover. Additionally, fog - Russia has for the last month now been advancing under the cover of fog. So Ukraine's number one advantage, or they're only saving grace. I don't know if we'd call it an advantage as both sides utilize drones to a great degree, is neutralized by fog, as you can't really drop mortars on people you can't see and you can't fly FPV drones into people you can't see them. Last, so if you struggle to conduct effective counter operations in urban environments, and your short on manpower, which again, very important defending urban environments, and your strategy. and et cetera, et cetera. And to continuously pour men and resources into urban theaters, you're going to be expanding manpower at a far higher rate than you would be if you slowly and steadily withdrew and maximized the effectiveness of your drones as Russians advanced. But the Ukrainians do not do this. They hold and they reinforce. This is not only bad because of the exponential loss in troops that they suffer as a result of casualties, but also the troops they lose as a result of the absolutely dismal moral of this inspires. Then we have the logistics problem. So, yes, it's quite advantageous for Ukraine to be able to strike Russian infrastructure, and occasionally Russian logistics, like military logistics, specifically. But Russia has far greater ability to impact Ukrainian logistics. Additionally, it's a lot harder to reinforce and resupply a theater through one road or one highway or one stretch of open fields than it is to resupply a crescent moon shaped front. Additionally, the Russians are very quick to capitalize when they capture hubs that can be used to move troops forward. They do so essentially immediately. As we've seen videos of lately undercover or fog, so the Ukrainians have a difficult time either identifying or determining the composition. The transition of the force that's moving through and or entrenching itself. Additionally, from what we can gather, urban resistance by Ukrainian forces is not well organized, which makes sense. Because once Russians start slipping in, you probably don't have anyone close enough to you to actually defend your flank. So it just breaks down into platoons fighting their own independent little battles of resistance on small commie blocks or trying to go building to building. to withdraw to somewhere safer. resupply in these environments becomes difficult. We have multiple videos of Ukrainians and Russians capping each other after pretending to be Ukrainian or Russian when they run into each other on the streets. Given the fact that yes, and we want to say that this is economically and politically and socially unfeasible for Russia to maintain. But the fact of the matter is that Russia is currently and will forever be able to field more manpower than Ukraine. It's also got a population that relative to Ukraine anyways is increasing. Now, as I've posted about in the other thread, we're coming up on a part of the war that I guess we should have all known was coming, but I don't think we ever expected it to get here. The last, I call it the line of cities. It's just a string of four cities connected by a straight highway. These are all giant cities by Ukrainian standards. Two of them are particularly large. And the first is already now being assaulted. Further south, we've got, we've got into the point where, if we wanted to look at Ukrainian's defense against Russian encroachment, as layered through the major settlements that they decide to make their last hands on, we're at the The last line here in the south, like the...after the Povrosk and Myrnohad and a couple of other cities for their east and south of that, you've got 30 to 60 kilometers of flat, essentially unoccupied, indefensible terrain for most of the front. Now, we would think that this is a great thing for Ukraine because of what I said earlier. These are the kinds of terrains that drones excel at. Unfortunately, drones don't really have that kind of range. And so, your drone operators are going to be exposed to overwhelming force and fire. You can inconvenience the Russians, but this phase of the war is pretty much done. It'll be slow, but there's nothing to stop it. Now, we're going to circle back to those cities I mentioned, and the fact that Ukraine not really great at urban resistance and the fact that this is going to be a large number of cities. That means there's an incredible number of troops and equipment and supplies that are going to be. and that means that that's going to take away a significant amount of reinforcements and supplies from other theaters along the front, like the one I just mentioned, which is going to be difficult to hold to begin with. Do we want to imagine that Ukraine can just hold these cities for the next three to five years? Long enough for all these negative stacking effects on the Russian economy and Putin's sphere of influence to take hold and force a change in Russian policy here? Because what's more likely to happen is that we see a cascading collapse. That's very, very costly. And that cascading collapse is not limited to the wide, open, fucking plains of Eastern Ukraine. And it's not limited to just slovansk and and the other cities. But it extends the entire length of the front, all the way to Karkov. And this isn't going to be one giant sweeping red motion across the map, but it's going to be a series of cascading failures. And unfortunately, due to the composition of Ukraine geographically, it's urban geography and natural geography. These small cascading collapses add up to vast, vast swaths of territory that are going to have to be seated, just like we saw when Ukraine had their very successful counteroffensive against Russia in the fall of 2022. Only the reason it was so fast in fall of 2022 is because the Russians had the sense to withdraw as quickly as possible and Ukraine's demonstrated no such sense despite four fucking years of practice. Anyways, if we wanted to extrapolate a little bit from the historical data available from the last four or so years of this war. Within the next three years, Slovansk falls. And within five, Russia has taken three entire oblasts and is working on a fourth and fifth. We're not going to count kherson because that's static for the time being. Anyways, I'm sure that one of you is going to tell me exactly how wrong I am, and that Russia is definitely losing this war, and Ukraine is going to hold forever with the invincible might of leopards and Abrams behind it, but I guess we'll find out.
murder rank	Fri Nov 21 20:30:39 "Because we both know Russia will attack them again, so it's fight now with what they've got, or fight again when the terms are even better for Russia." Especially since this has already happened. Also, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, are not safe if Russia is not defeated in Ukraine. -
jergul rank	Fri Nov 21 20:32:19 Russia defeated in Ukraine is not on the table murder.
murder rank	Fri Nov 21 20:38:05 Of course it is jergul. Just as surely as the Axis could be defeated. It just takes want to. -
TheChildren rank	Fri Nov 21 20:40:05 so wut, tough luck 4 little chuahania lol
jergul rank	Fri Nov 21 20:45:36 Murder Yepp, like I said. Not on the table. For the record, I dont think Germany or Japan would have been defeated if they had nukes.
jergul rank	Fri Nov 21 20:46:11 Maybe Italy. It might have folded, even with a nuclear arsenal.
Pillz rank	Fri Nov 21 21:07:37 After Provosk/Myrnohad we reach Dobropillya. Then we hit the T-0504 highway. That is the fastest and most direct route to resupply Slovyansk & the other 3 cities. One of just 2 highways. And between Dobropillia and the highway is nothing. Fortunely for the AFU, this means Dobropillia lends itself exceptionally well to defense by FPV drone. Provided weather cooperates. Unfortunately for Ukraine, still just a matter of time. On the bright side, Dobropillia is very isolated, and defensible by drones as a result. Unfortunately
Pillz rank	Fri Nov 21 21:08:37 Huh
Pillz rank	Fri Nov 21 21:11:07 "Of course it is jergul. Just as surely as the Axis could be defeated. It just takes want to." Hrothgar levels of cope :o
Seb rank	Fri Nov 21 21:47:21 Pillz: And the future situation under the agreement is even less ideal. I can see Ukraine agreeing to a settlement based on the contact line. But to lose the strong defensive positions, their military, prohibition on foreign troops and no security guarantees; they know that Russia will attack again and they'll be in a worse position then than now.
Pillz rank	Fri Nov 21 22:59:21 Again - you're imagining some make believe choice that Ukraine has. They're on track to lose everything east of Pavlohrad and Kharkiv before the next US president takes office. Russia will capture Dnipro and Zaporizhzhia. That's assuming Russia stops there - or more precisely assuming the AFU can hold them at the river. No agreement means the finish line is Poland. So do you want to agree to Russian terms now, or when they raise the flag in Kiev?
Seb rank	Fri Nov 21 23:45:11 Pillz: Right, but again, nobody believes Russia won't actually attack again, and nobody believes the US will honour it's guarantees. So it just means they lose more territory faster if they sign this deal.
Rugian rank	Fri Nov 21 23:49:31 Seb Why not offer a European security guarantee if you don't trust the American one?
murder rank	Sat Nov 22 00:52:01 "Yepp, like I said. Not on the table. For the record, I dont think Germany or Japan would have been defeated if they had nukes." Really? The US gets defeated all the time and we have nukes. The Soviet Union was defeated and they had nukes. Nukes only mean shit to people who want to capitulate. -
Seb rank	Sat Nov 22 01:01:38 Rugian: We have, however this proposed deal explicitly bans foreign troops from being based in defensive positions inside Ukraine greatly complicating that.
Pillz rank	Sat Nov 22 01:28:12 Seb's foreign policy boils down to a self fulfilling prophecy about Russian invasions that is 30 years old and finally come true. And his obvious response is to take this as confirmation of his beliefs and double down
Rugian rank	Sat Nov 22 01:31:08 Seb Russia would not be invading Ukraine again if it believed that it would be fighting a major European army within two weeks of initial incursion. The problem is that no one believes a European deterrent is credible. How many people here believe that the Europe of, say, 2035 will have meaningfully increased military spending (at the expense to social benefits for populations with rapidly growing amounts of retirees), and have the political fortitude to become belligerants in a direct war with Russia? My guess is zero.
Seb rank	Sat Nov 22 01:38:57 Rugian: It won't believe it will be. It will, like this time, believe it can grab a chunk of territory and hold it, sand security guarantees absent concrete commitments on the ground won't be honoured (just as nobody honoured Budapest commitments) because they would require an enormous offensive and currently technology gives huge advantages to the defender. If the goal is to deter an attack, Ukraine must have strong defensive positions, a strong army, long range strike and they only credible security guarantees are those involving troop deployments forcing Russia to fight against a strong, internationalised defensive position triggering conflict. A guarantee based on an international counter offensive launched from outside Ukraine requiring 5-10 times Russian forces is not particularly credible and so will not deter Russia even if it came to pass.
jergul rank	Sat Nov 22 01:40:08 Murder That is because you get into wars all the time that have nothing to do with your existential interests. Seb A revanchist Ukraine is a far more likely threat to any peace agreement (that gives Russia most of what it wants) than Russia would be. Hence the safeguards that keeps Ukraine from using an agreement to renew conflict with Nato forces in harm's way. Now, I get your point. It would be nice if Ukraine could go back in time and accept the 2023 Istanbul agreement. But you are arguing that future Ukraine would think it nice if it could go back in time and accept the 2025 agreement.
Seb rank	Sat Nov 22 01:43:17 Pillz: "Finally"? Russia has racked up a string of invasions and frozen conflicts since the 90s. Ukraine isn't the sudden snap; it's the latest in a long line of Russian interventions to try and maintain dominance over its neighbours.
jergul rank	Sat Nov 22 01:43:39 Current technology does not give an advantage to a defender. It simply makes it hard for defence and attack to concentrate forces and run logistics. Hence Ukraines focus on equipping assault units. In many ways less technically demanding to attack, so poorly trained Ukrainians do better attacking than they would defending. Not that it makes a different. Ukraine takes about 10% of what Russia does in any given week.
jergul rank	Sat Nov 22 01:55:00 It should be mentioned that the roadmap now is first to get Ukraine to agree in principle and then for Russia to agree in princple. Then the details have to be worked out and adjusted. The 28 points are a back of napkin roadmap. There is way too much ambiguity and uncertainty on how each point is supposed to work. For example, the only way Russia will put money into a rebuild fund would be if a significant portion of the funding went to rebuild areas that have been fought over. Ie areas Russia gets to keep.
Pillz rank	Sat Nov 22 03:39:02 Seb A string? One. Georgia. Also your fault.
jergul rank	Sat Nov 22 10:53:38 He is probably counting Chechnya and Dagestan in addition to extralegal killings in the UK. Seb does not really think Russia is a real country, so internal stuff is actually the oppression of other countries that deserve liberation. ========= The damage may already have been done. Some Ukr military bloggers are reporting that soldiers really want a peace deal. And we know that nobody wants to be the last person to die in a war.
Average Ameriacn rank	Sat Nov 22 12:27:46 Even Farage betrays Trump and begrudges him the Noble Peace Prize. All Brits are scum! https://ww...p-ukraine-deal-not-acceptable/ Farage: Trump’s Ukraine deal ‘not acceptable’
Paramount rank	Sat Nov 22 12:42:18 It's not a done deal, or even a deal at all. Like Jergul said, it is "a back of napkin roadmap. There is way too much ambiguity and uncertainty on how each point is supposed to work." It was done in haste by people who knows little about negotiations. (The Duran)
jergul rank	Sat Nov 22 16:04:58 The Donetsk river flow also has to be negotiated. It ultimately supplies Crimea. Or will when the canal system is fixed.
Rugian rank	Sat Nov 22 16:14:47 Jergul is too happy about this. It's stirring a kneejerk reaction in me to hate this deal. Increase military aid to Ukraine by $500 billion immediately please.
TheChildren rank	Sat Nov 22 17:46:35 yea well just rememba, da next proposal is gonna be even worser 4 u reality is hittin hard
LazyCommunist rank	Sat Nov 22 18:01:53 I told you so! Think back to how you got excited about pictures of destroyed Russian tanks and artillery. Think back to how you laughed when you read that 10,000, 50,000, even over 100,000 Russians had been killed. But I told you again and again that none of that matters as long as we can take Donbass away from the Ukrainians! And now that is exactly what will happen. You don't understand the Russian soul. Russia has always been an imperialist country. That was the case centuries ago. And it will always be that way. As long as we can conquer other countries' land, we will make any sacrifice to do so. ANY!
Pillz rank	Sat Nov 22 18:08:59 In that case seb probably also has the Russian invasion of Alawite Syria in kind too
jergul rank	Sat Nov 22 19:20:38 Ruggy It has been going this way since August-23 when the counter-offensive had clearly failed. It looks better for Ukraine than could have been offered. Happy is not the correct word, but nothing good will come of continued conflict for anyone except Norway.
Pillz rank	Sat Nov 22 19:29:47 The AFU is now a more capable and modern military than the militaries of the EU. Lmao Seb sucks https://youtu.be/fTV6xy-hlSk?si=xBmayLMIF20AfIy2 EU training fails at every single level, from refusing to train with drones because 'its too fast and realistic' to failing to provide situationally appropriate medical training. If Russia invaded poland tomorrow seb would be watching his wife take Russian dick by Christmas
TheChildren rank	Sat Nov 22 22:51:33 ^sounds like roided gymrats thinkin modern battle is some roided gymrat doing hardcore benches and blowjitsu rollin on da grounds only 2 realize fast drone nerd is death from above
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