Utopia Talk / Politics / Blame Trump for oil prices?

Habebe rank	Fri Mar 27 05:57:58 Absolutely this war is impacting energy prices. He has also done things to mitigate it, waived sanctions, opened up venezuela, pushed for US to drill baby drill etc. The Ukraines response? Blow up oil refineries. I mean, I get it, they don't want the Russkies to profit with this price spike, but they also know they also know this is throwing fuel on a fire.
Sam Adams rank	Fri Mar 27 06:20:03 Blowing up important russian refinerys is always a good idea.
Sam Adams rank	Fri Mar 27 06:23:31 Basically here is your pyro flow chart. Should I set x on fire? Is x Russian? Yes... Set on fire. No... Continue flow chart to other steps.
Habebe rank	Fri Mar 27 07:17:26 Is the timing the best?
Forwyn rank	Fri Mar 27 07:59:41 While I am critical of pre-war Ukrainian government and their justification to prevent the secession of eastern states, all else equal, they should absolutely strive to prevent excess profits from flowing to the Russian war machine if they want to force the best concessions. That's just a strategic fact
jergul rank	Fri Mar 27 11:22:49 The problem here is externalizing costs. Ukraine does not care about energy prices because it is not footing the bill. Western support is warping Ukraine's cost benefit analysis. Hungary is playing this correctly imo. Dont blow up things we need or there will be a price to pay. The cost is not longer externalized. Ukraine has to decide if it wants to pay the price. Somthing to think about the next time interest rates increase to dampen inflationary effects of increased energy prices. As to the actual damage. Russia is repairing things faster than Ukraine can break them. Nice touch using Polish and baltic state airspace for some attacks though. Given that targets are right by the border. Perhaps Russia will be incited to interdict drones in those neighbouring countries. That would work great for Ukraine, but for nobody else. Long term? Its reaching a point where Russia may not be able to afford having an Ukrainian State on its frontier. Not without a proper and permanent regime change. That is why the hype is causing issues. The war was never existential for Ukraine. But it might become existential.
Sam Adams rank	Fri Mar 27 12:28:45 "Russia is repairing things faster than Ukraine can break them." "Its reaching a point where Russia may not be able to afford" Lol jergul thinks jergul is full of shit. Literally a paragraph apart.
jergul rank	Fri Mar 27 12:32:46 So sad that sammy does not understand that words can have different contextual meaning. But I suppose I can afford to offer him the chance to reread and try to understand #reedingizherd4sami
Sam Adams rank	Fri Mar 27 13:12:37 So what meaning did you think you had when you tried to play off ukraine as weak in paragraph 1 and then tried to make them sound scary and threatening in paragraph 2?
murder rank	Fri Mar 27 13:44:23 "The Ukraines response? Blow up oil refineries." You'll have to excuse them for not taking your energy bill into account. -
jergul rank	Fri Mar 27 13:45:53 Revanchism. A simmering Ukraine is just waiting for the Baltic States to draw Europe into something really stupid. Betting that Europe+Ukraine with tactic US support will do way better than Ukraine with tactic Euro and US support. Drones gracefully coasting through Poland, then the Baltic States before striking targets just inside Russia a pertinent reminder of that potential. So, yah, its reaching a point where Russia will think it is forced to permanently end hostile Ukrainian potential. The template Ukraine is aiming for is Israel. A highly militarized loose cannong acting with unconditional support from its allies (You supplied Israel with 8000 tons of munitions and equipment in the first two weeks of the current conflict for reference).
murder rank	Fri Mar 27 13:46:31 "The problem here is externalizing costs. Ukraine does not care about energy prices because it is not footing the bill." Ukraine wouldn't care anyway because the cost to Ukraine of not doing it is Ukraine. The warped perspective is external. -
jergul rank	Fri Mar 27 13:47:33 Murder I am fine that Ukraine does not care about that. Its more that it is not taking its own energy bill into account either. Why would it. Somebody else is paying that bill. Maybe we should not pay exactly that bill. So as to encourage Ukraine to look at a bit bigger a picture.
jergul rank	Fri Mar 27 13:48:18 Relevant to Norway. We are covering a lot of Ukraine's energy expenses.
jergul rank	Fri Mar 27 13:49:44 Ukraine is not in an existential struggle...yet. Unless you mean the Trashistan aspect of demographic and economic destitution, but on those terms it has already lost.
jergul rank	Fri Mar 27 13:50:53 The regime is certainly in an existential struggle because it is gone as soon as the war ends. Maybe you are conflating Zelenskiy with Ukraine?
murder rank	Fri Mar 27 13:53:52 "Its more that it is not taking its own energy bill into account either." It wouldn't matter anyway. Ukraine doesn't have to worry about energy bills (it's own or yours) if there is no Ukraine. You don't seem to understand what it means to fight for survival. -
murder rank	Fri Mar 27 13:56:15 "Ukraine is not in an existential struggle...yet." Of course ... because Russia is currently only trying to secure 1/3 of the pie after it's previous meal. Clearly they don't intend to eat the whole thing. -
jergul rank	Fri Mar 27 14:08:08 Murder Why would it want to? Ukraine remains its own best deterrent. Sure you could take Ukraine, but then you would have Ukraine. It would be like Israel permanently keeping forces in Gaza, or the US in Afghanistan.
jergul rank	Fri Mar 27 14:10:58 There is in other words a natural limit to how much Russia can absorb. Mostly what it is already talking about. Imaginably also Kharkiv, Odessa and Kiev. The rest forms two distinct Maidan triangles where it would be a nightmare.
murder rank	Fri Mar 27 14:12:29 "Why would it want to?" Why did they want it before? Why did they want all of Eastern Europe before? Evidence that they want it is that they took it. Further evidence is that they are currently trying to retake it. -
Sam Adams rank	Fri Mar 27 14:20:45 "we didn't actually want the thing we tried but failed to take" Western 4 year olds and soviet adults on the same level.
jergul rank	Fri Mar 27 14:43:40 Murder Why did the US want all of Western Europe and pretty much everywhere else for that matter? Russia's ideal solution was not to take Ukraine, but ensure that Ukrainian domestic and foreign policies met minimum Russian criteria. Crimea was always going to be a special case. It would be like you giving up Pearl Harbour. Ukraine decided to play hardball in the name of unicultural maidan nationbuilding. Ballzy given that Ukraine was never a mono-ethnic state. It gambled and lost. The trashistan outcome is inevitable. The question that remains is how much will be trashistan and if revanchism is a realistic option for the country at a later date. So what if Russia wants regime change there and will pursue that until an accomodating regime decides it has had enough of war. Is that not the established norm of how things should be done? But with that said. Russia is still horribly wrong. It should not have escalated even though Ukraine decided to play hardball. Reinventing the red menace was bad for everyone and I do not begrudge supporting Ukraine (well beyond the energy stuff. Targetting oil is stupid and it does not impact on Russia's ability to wage war at all. The war is fought in rubles and regardless, Russia has a huge trade surplus). But the war was lost for Ukraine when the 2023 offensive failed. We are just watching it play out.
jergul rank	Fri Mar 27 14:52:01 https://archive.fo/er92n Link is legit. Used to bypass paywall.
TheChildren rank	Fri Mar 27 15:43:33 magas xcell at 5 d cheess aye they is kno wut they is do
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