Utopia Talk / Politics / Hormuz

Habebe rank	Sat Apr 04 03:04:48 This is the important factor...I mean genuine regime change seems implausible. But, they are drastically weakened in regards to military equipment and capacity, but if we don't secure Hormuz this leaves them with massive leverage. This is my assessment at, correct me if I'm wrong.
Pillz rank	Sat Apr 04 03:16:39 You can't take the straight and hold it without remaining in a permanent state of war with iran for eternity.
murder rank	Sat Apr 04 04:49:14 That's why Trump wants Kharg Island. He wants to take it so he can trade it back in exchange for Iran's highly enriched uranium and the reopening of the strait. -
jergul rank	Sat Apr 04 10:58:45 Iran is slowly opening up the strait under a tariff regime for non-hostile shipping. So its not really about opening up the strait. It is about opening up the strait in a way that does not benefit Iran.
Average Ameriacn rank	Sat Apr 04 12:49:57 I think that the new Board of Peace will soon engage to reopen the Street of Hormus. Some very strong ntaions among it: Flag of AlbaniaAlbania Flag of ArgentinaArgentina Flag of ArmeniaArmenia Flag of AzerbaijanAzerbaijan Flag of BahrainBahrain Flag of BelarusBelarus Flag of BulgariaBulgaria Flag of CambodiaCambodia Flag of EgyptEgypt Flag of El SalvadorEl Salvador Flag of HungaryHungary Flag of IndonesiaIndonesia Flag of IsraelIsrael Flag of JordanJordan Flag of KazakhstanKazakhstan Flag of KosovoKosovo Flag of KuwaitKuwait Flag of MongoliaMongolia Flag of MoroccoMorocco Flag of PakistanPakistan Flag of ParaguayParaguay Flag of QatarQatar Flag of Saudi ArabiaSaudi Arabia Flag of TürkiyeTürkiye Flag of United Arab EmiratesUnited Arab Emirates Flag of UzbekistanUzbekistan Flag of Vietnam
Pillz rank	Sat Apr 04 14:26:24 The US's closest allies, Iraq and Al-Qae- I mean Syria.
Sam Adams rank	Sat Apr 04 18:28:36 Well we once were allied with civilized nations like Canada. But then they elected far left pussies so we had to ditch them.
williamthebastard rank	Sat Apr 04 18:50:38 Two concurrent headlines today April 4 (Reuters) - Iran attacked ​an Israel-affiliated ‌vessel with a ​drone ​in the Strait ⁠of Hormuz, ​setting ​the ship on fire French-owned container ship safely passes through Strait of Hormuz as Iran’s chokehold continues
Sam Adams rank	Sat Apr 04 19:09:42 Ahhh a reward for the filthy french siding with the russians and iranians. If only it was flammable we should probably set it on fire.
williamthebastard rank	Sat Apr 04 19:13:55 Shhh moronic little lump of coal and go put some more orange make up on
Sam Adams rank	Sat Apr 04 19:25:13 Lol don't be mad that we might set your dildo shipment of fire.
jergul rank	Sat Apr 04 19:47:32 Yepp, like I said earlier. Both the US and Iran have negative control of the strait. Both can close it anytime they like.
williamthebastard rank	Sat Apr 04 21:43:26 Pedo-csam's Trumpian expertise in all things reminds me of brain-dead fake martial arts on Youtube. He should devote his tactical expertise and high IQ to starting his own martial arts channel. "if sumwun truhs to robs u at guns poynt, jump in teh air so he dunt see were u ar. tehn grab teh gun wiht ur muoth and shake it. the crimnal wil go flyn in teh air." - Master Csam
Habebe rank	Sat Apr 04 22:39:18 Jergul, For Euros, the question is who is the lesser of two evils, as no one else really has the ability to control the straight.
Seb rank	Sat Apr 04 23:35:34 Habebe: For Europeans? Any objective analysis would say Iran is the lesser of the two evils. The US is threatening to invade European territories, Iran is not. The US has a history of economic extortion to force Europeans to change policy. Iran has to some extent, but the US already has a lot of leverage. Iran is more predictable and stable in policy outlook. Iran wants to destroy Israel, but it can't. So that's not really an issue at the moment. And exec if Iran does want to destroy Israel, this is less important to Europe than the US wanting to invade Greenland and re-normalise economic relations with Russia. Europe would like to peel Iran away from Russia, but the US fucked that strategy when it walked away from JCPOA.
Habebe rank	Sun Apr 05 01:15:43 Seb, TBH, In regards to the straight of Hormuz, I came to the same conclusion. With all it entails, it may be shortsighted though, Trump has 2 more years.
jergul rank	Sun Apr 05 03:10:53 Habebe Is that the question? I thought the question was how to open the strait. But otherwise, you are the aggressor here. Appeasing Trump over Iran would just have him set his sights on something different. For example Canada or Greenland.
Habebe rank	Sun Apr 05 04:00:52 I don't take seriously threats to traditionally friendly nations.
jergul rank	Sun Apr 05 11:26:26 Why would Trump think Canada and Denmark are friendly nations? They have things he wants.
Seb rank	Sun Apr 05 14:32:43 Habebe: You ought to. We do. And that affects how we see the US. Because the issue isn't trump. It's people like you who vote for him and then support and acquiesce his threats. That means we don't think "only 2 more years left" we think instead the US is a violent, criminal threat and Trump is a symptom not an aberration.
Rugian rank	Sun Apr 05 14:46:35 Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!! Open the Fuckin’ Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell - JUST WATCH! Praise be to Allah. President DONALD J. TRUMP
jergul rank	Sun Apr 05 15:11:25 An oldie but goldie. The three pillars of US force projection: 1. Be reasonable, or we will be compelled to use force. 2. If we can't have it, we will break it. 3. Now look what you made us do. Note that this also works for spouse abuse. Coincidence? I think not.
jergul rank	Sun Apr 05 15:19:51 Just a reminder of the noob numbers in Iran. Israel + US combined have 8000 strikes. Russia used 7500 JDAM equivalents in march alone. Not including missiles, artillery, atgms and drones of various types and ranges. It is like I said. 3 effimate mene slapping towards each other at the maximum range of their reach.
jergul rank	Sun Apr 05 15:32:50 (I am also not counting Israel's landgrab sideshow in Lebanon. Which is within range, so the numbers are better there).
Habebe rank	Sun Apr 05 16:08:04 Seb, I never voted for Trump. You can think that all you want, but evidence seems clear. Understanding Trump is to know he likes.to inject uncertainty into everything....art of the deal. I was strictly speaking of Hormuz in regards to Trump having 2 more years. I genuinely think a lack of understanding causes alot of problems between the EU and US.
Habebe rank	Sun Apr 05 16:08:22 EU+UK* and US
williamthebastard rank	Sun Apr 05 16:18:42 He didnt even fucking write art of the deal, for gods sake. He paid an author to invent a narrative that makes him look good He is a clear and present danger and your fantasies mean nothing to us. Worse, as Seb emphasized but you skipped over, the people he represnts are a clear and present danger. There is not a seconds doubt that the csam adamses will do nothing but beat their scrawny little chests and holler Murca if the US starts killing canadians or europeans. Thank you for your attention to this matter.
williamthebastard rank	Sun Apr 05 16:56:52 I have to ask, since that kind of coping mechanism is so foreign and weird to me: you know he didnt write that book. Since you know that, why do you invoke it as proof of his psychology? It baffles me. The author has related countless times that he could hardly even put together interviews or discussions with Trump and had to make basically all of it up. That means that the only psychology that is possible to derive from that book is his motives for wanting an author to make up a good narrative about him. Thats just a basic, logical, scientific analysis of the facts on the table. So since you know this, since you know it doesnt reflect his thoughts at all, how do you manage to skip past all that in your analysis?
Habebe rank	Sun Apr 05 17:45:39 Wtb, Do you not think he often injects intentional uncertainty into his actions. No need to write muliple replies its a simple question with no need to go on in rants most ppl wont read anyway.
williamthebastard rank	Sun Apr 05 17:57:31 It would be shockingly irresponsible and cruel to inject uncertainty as to whether he's going to start a war with Canada or us, but you skipped over the uncomfortable question, as you always do.
williamthebastard rank	Sun Apr 05 18:00:43 The way you always skip over the blindingly obvious details and run away make me, sadly, think youre just dishonest. I want to think youre not one of the csam adams magas who enjoy cruelty for the sake of it, and I still dont think you are, but you seem to be just as willing to use dishonesty and cowardice as them.
Habebe rank	Sun Apr 05 19:08:32 So short and sweet, what is the uncomfortable question?
Habebe rank	Sun Apr 05 19:31:38 You interpret me to avoiding some of your statements/questions as if I read them. Some of your points just seem inane and pointless. Like someone else writing the book, the fact is he uses the technique described in his book that he touts regularly.
Seb rank	Sun Apr 05 22:35:18 Habebe: I don't think it's intentional, no. I think he's just nuts and aggressive. He's not particularly successful in business as a genuinely calculating strategic mastermind would be.
williamthebastard rank	Sun Apr 05 22:49:12 "Like someone else writing the book, the fact is he uses the technique described in his book that he touts regularly." Gutless and dishnoest coward, I repeat: that would be shockingly irresponsible of a world leader to lead millions of people in friendly allied countries in uncertainty as to whether he's going to start killing their people in a war. Now off you go and run rabbit run from this childishly simple fact too.
williamthebastard rank	Sun Apr 05 22:56:38 Also, its a complete fantasy that he's playing 4D by creating cruel and dangerous uncertainty for other friendly allies - "uncertainty" that leads the rest of the Western world to actively send troops and equipment in preparation for a possible war as assessed by the rest of the western worlds military advisers, costing us millions of our tax euros that we could be spending on schools and hospitals. He causes complete uncertainty because he himself hasnt got clue what he's going to do next. All his decisions are spur of the moment gut emotions, because he's convinced he has a genius gut.
Habebe rank	Mon Apr 06 00:25:24 So, IDK if Id call it 4d chess, "Never let them know your next move" Would you be shocked to find out that Trump was irresponsible? FYI I did an AI question "I'll search for information about "The Art of the Deal" and Trump's use of uncertainty in negotiations. Yes, "The Art of the Deal" does discuss injecting uncertainty, and Trump actively uses this as a central negotiation tactic. From the book: Trump describes a tactic he calls "keeping many balls in the air," which makes it difficult for the other party to determine what really matters (Apurchasingd) . By overloading negotiations with multiple issues, he keeps opponents uncertain about which ones are deal-breakers, forcing them to make concessions on multiple fronts (Apurchasingd) . How Trump employs this in practice: He often flip-flops or sends mixed signals as a calculated tactic—one day belittling a counterpart with insults, the next day praising them as a great leader (The F Rant) . As he himself said: "I may do it… I may not do it. I mean, nobody knows what I'm going to do" (The Daily Economy) . Trump's "structured choice" tactic juxtaposes the clarity of one choice (the one he promotes with bravado) with the ambiguity of the alternative (the unpredictable threat he might employ) (MIT Press) . This creates maximum uncertainty about consequences while making his preferred option seem clearer. Trump advises negotiators to feign disinterest to determine how desperate the other party is: "To speed up negotiations, be indifferent. That way you'll find out if the other side is eager to proceed" (MIT Press) . The uncertainty isn't accidental—it's a deliberate pressure tactic to keep opponents off-balance and extract more concessions." The question was "Does the art of the deal talk about injecting uncertainty and does Trump dp this"
jergul rank	Mon Apr 06 00:28:53 Undermining trust that way sounds like a great way to go bankrupt multiple times. It fits!
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