Utopia Talk - Politics - Iran war: The US has the upper hand

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Utopia Talk / Politics / Iran war: The US has the upper hand

murder
rank Sun May 17 18:53:58
... with the blockade of Iranian shipping, and Iran has no means of countering that locally.

I am the only one who is surprised that Iran hasn't taken the fight globally? Unmanned surface vessels are dirt cheap (especially if you steal the vessels themselves) and commercial ships are big fat vulnerable targets.

Is there some obvious reason that I'm missing why Iran couldn't or wouldn't want to do that?

-

Seb
rank Sun May 17 19:14:04
Murder:

No need to when they can just blockade the straits.

Paramount
rank Sun May 17 21:43:38
Why hasn’t Iran attacked hospitals, schools, kindergartens, synagogues, medics, and journalists in Israel?

Isn’t Iran terrorists?

TheChildren
rank Sun May 17 22:38:51
russian state visit china soon

murder
rank Mon May 18 18:23:55

"No need to when they can just blockade the straits."

That's a losing battle if their oil can't make it out. Like I said when Russia first invaded Ukraine, the key to winning is to stretch the other side thin. The US Navy isn't that big and they can't be everywhere at once. Force them to be.

Right now the US is inflicting a crippling blockade on Iran virtually for free.

By diverting a small amount of manpower and resources to other parts of the world, Iran can raise the cost for the US dramatically.

-

Allahuakbar
rank Mon May 18 19:09:33
Why you can never defeat Iran!

https://x.com/GhonchehAzad/status/2056402138750685505

Latest on Iranian state TV:

A woman says that her “mahr” (the groom’s financial obligation to the bride in Islamic marriage) is a Shahed drone.

The presenter laughs and says twice, “Hopefully it will hit the heart of Tel Aviv.”

Seb
rank Mon May 18 21:17:23
Murder:

"That's a losing battle if their oil can't make it out."

Not really. They can last months, and the damage that will do to the global economy is immense and far outweighs attacking ships globally. Plus they can put production facilities out of operation on a longer basis: that's their escalation threat.

They have pipelines iirc through central Asia and Russia - but that's not really the issue.

They can try and wreak havoc globally, but I don't think that really helps them and I think they realise that. They US isn't going to relent on the basis of military costs.

Seb
rank Mon May 18 23:19:06
The best way for them to get the US blockade lifted is the rest of the world freaking out about oil supply.

Blowing up ships elsewhere isn't going to change anything, and while nobody else wants to join the US in the quagmire, they'd certainly get involved in escorting ships against drone boats.

murder
rank Tue May 19 03:37:53

You seem to think that the US can simply declare where the war is and is not fought. Iran attacking US shipping anywhere at sea is part of the same war. If other nations attempt to intervene, then they have joined the war.

Seb
rank Tue May 19 17:56:56
Murder:

Uh no. I'm saying that I don't think that it is in Iran's interest to attack global commercial shipping.

It's a pinprick compared to their choke hold over the strait; it won't be enough to get the US to weaken its blockade in the Indian Ocean; and it's just as likely to drag other countries into the war on the US side (which at very least defeats the purpose of trying to stretch the USN away from the straits).

What the US declares is irrelevant.

At the moment, Iran just needs to wear Trump's patience down until he concedes the key points, declares victory and fucks off home. They've pretty much got their strategic victory. According to Jonathan Powell, that's what they normally do. They don't bang the table, they just wear you down over time.

Armed conflict doesn't help them achieve that.

show deleted posts

murder rank	Sun May 17 18:53:58 ... with the blockade of Iranian shipping, and Iran has no means of countering that locally. I am the only one who is surprised that Iran hasn't taken the fight globally? Unmanned surface vessels are dirt cheap (especially if you steal the vessels themselves) and commercial ships are big fat vulnerable targets. Is there some obvious reason that I'm missing why Iran couldn't or wouldn't want to do that? -
Seb rank	Sun May 17 19:14:04 Murder: No need to when they can just blockade the straits.
Paramount rank	Sun May 17 21:43:38 Why hasn’t Iran attacked hospitals, schools, kindergartens, synagogues, medics, and journalists in Israel? Isn’t Iran terrorists?
TheChildren rank	Sun May 17 22:38:51 russian state visit china soon
murder rank	Mon May 18 18:23:55 "No need to when they can just blockade the straits." That's a losing battle if their oil can't make it out. Like I said when Russia first invaded Ukraine, the key to winning is to stretch the other side thin. The US Navy isn't that big and they can't be everywhere at once. Force them to be. Right now the US is inflicting a crippling blockade on Iran virtually for free. By diverting a small amount of manpower and resources to other parts of the world, Iran can raise the cost for the US dramatically. -
Allahuakbar rank	Mon May 18 19:09:33 Why you can never defeat Iran! https://x.com/GhonchehAzad/status/2056402138750685505 Latest on Iranian state TV: A woman says that her “mahr” (the groom’s financial obligation to the bride in Islamic marriage) is a Shahed drone. The presenter laughs and says twice, “Hopefully it will hit the heart of Tel Aviv.”
Seb rank	Mon May 18 21:17:23 Murder: "That's a losing battle if their oil can't make it out." Not really. They can last months, and the damage that will do to the global economy is immense and far outweighs attacking ships globally. Plus they can put production facilities out of operation on a longer basis: that's their escalation threat. They have pipelines iirc through central Asia and Russia - but that's not really the issue. They can try and wreak havoc globally, but I don't think that really helps them and I think they realise that. They US isn't going to relent on the basis of military costs.
Seb rank	Mon May 18 23:19:06 The best way for them to get the US blockade lifted is the rest of the world freaking out about oil supply. Blowing up ships elsewhere isn't going to change anything, and while nobody else wants to join the US in the quagmire, they'd certainly get involved in escorting ships against drone boats.
murder rank	Tue May 19 03:37:53 You seem to think that the US can simply declare where the war is and is not fought. Iran attacking US shipping anywhere at sea is part of the same war. If other nations attempt to intervene, then they have joined the war.
Seb rank	Tue May 19 17:56:56 Murder: Uh no. I'm saying that I don't think that it is in Iran's interest to attack global commercial shipping. It's a pinprick compared to their choke hold over the strait; it won't be enough to get the US to weaken its blockade in the Indian Ocean; and it's just as likely to drag other countries into the war on the US side (which at very least defeats the purpose of trying to stretch the USN away from the straits). What the US declares is irrelevant. At the moment, Iran just needs to wear Trump's patience down until he concedes the key points, declares victory and fucks off home. They've pretty much got their strategic victory. According to Jonathan Powell, that's what they normally do. They don't bang the table, they just wear you down over time. Armed conflict doesn't help them achieve that.
	show deleted posts

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