Utopia Talk / Politics / Nobody believes the Sebs

LazyCommunist rank	Thu May 28 16:38:38 But even it it was the truth there are millions of men waiting to join the fight until total victory. Half a million means nothing to us!!! https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4g44gprnnvo Almost 500,000 Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine war, GCHQ says 23 hours ago Almost 500,000 Russian soldiers have been killed since it launched its fullscale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, according to the UK's largest spy agency. The numbers were revealed by GCHQ director Anne Keast-Butler in her inaugural public speech as she set out the threats facing the UK and the measures she believes need to be taken to confront them. The spy chief warned the UK is at a "moment of consequence" with Russia "relentlessly targeting" critical infrastructure across the country. She also blamed the Kremlin for a string of espionage plots on British soil and, more recently, waging an undeclared 'hybrid war' against the UK and other Nato countries. While both Kyiv and Moscow have regularly published estimates of the other side's losses, they have been reluctant to detail their own. However, in February, President Volodymyr Zelensky said Ukraine had lost 55,000 soldiers since 2022. BBC News Russian has been counting Russian war losses together with independent outlet Mediazona and a group of volunteers since February 2022. A list is kept of named individuals whose deaths we were able to confirm using official reports, newspapers, social media, and new memorials and graves. The BBC has so far been able to confirm the names of 223,539 soldiers and officers, killed fighting for the Russian side in Ukraine. The real death toll is believed to be much higher, and military experts we have consulted believe our analysis of cemeteries, war memorials and obituaries might represent 45-65% of the total. Speaking from Bletchley Park, the home of code-breaking during World War Two, Keast-Butler singled out Russia for "targeting critical infrastructure, democratic processes, supply chains and public trust". The Kremlin has denied the allegations. Keast-Butler also warned Russia and China are investing heavily in space, for both peaceful and military purposes. GCHQ is working tirelessly to fend off cyber attacks, she said, as well as counter what she called "reckless sabotage and assassination attempts". She added: "In the face of such aggression and chaos, GCHQ is working tirelessly with intelligence and defence partners to degrade and reduce the Russian threat." The Kremlin, which denies the allegations, has been blamed for the murder of former KGB officer Alexander Litvinenko after radioactive polonium was slipped into his tea at a London hotel in 2006. It was also blamed for the attempted assassination of a former Russian military intelligence officer, Sergei Skripal, in Salisbury in 2018, after the lethal nerve agent Novichok was smeared onto his front door handle. More recently, since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine and the UK's ongoing support for Ukraine, Moscow has been accused of waging a "hybrid war" against Western countries. In her speech, the GCHQ chief added: "As we remain steadfast in our support for Ukraine, Putin is going backwards on the battlefield." Hundreds of so-called Russian "shadow fleet" vessels have also entered UK waters since the prime minister threatened to intercept them earlier this year, a BBC Verify analysis suggested.
Paramount rank	Thu May 28 17:53:30 Was it not 1 million a couple of months ago?
LazyCommunist rank	Thu May 28 18:18:36 Don't remember, can you link to it?
Paramount rank	Thu May 28 18:58:39 One Million Russian Casualties Nearly one million Russian troops have been killed or wounded in the country’s war against Ukraine, according to a new study by CSIS https://ww...slower-growth-truckin-and-more
LazyCommunist rank	Thu May 28 19:16:08 GCHQ is only counting killed soldiers, not killed and wounded. But I can nevertheless use your link to confuse people on X and facebook, thank you!
jergul rank	Thu May 28 19:46:19 The bbc-mediazona number is pretty robust. I suppose we should be greatful the GCHQ speech only doubled available data because anyone can say anything they like in speeches.
Seb rank	Thu May 28 20:15:03 Paramount: OP figure = dead Second link you posted = dead + wounded Jergul: It clearly isn't robust at a total, only a minimum that is certain to be exceeded. The idea the BBC would be in a position to identify 100% of all Russian war-dead to a named individual is pretty preposterous if you think about it. 45%-65% puts the range then between 497k and 344k. At the upper end, in line with the GCHQ figure.
jergul rank	Thu May 28 21:42:14 In line with something someone said in a speech. We should all know by now how stunningly unreliable those are because they lie. The number is certainly significantly less than 500k or the speech would have given a higher inflated number. It is not a minimum either. The method begs duplicate registered dead for the same person due to for example variations in spelling, errors in dates, or conflating residence with place of birth. The information on each soldier is as publically available as it would be in the UK and internet scrubs as good as catching each person as it would be in the UK. We live in a social media driven information age, buddy. 223k to 350k would be the jergulmath number. A range suited also to how much we should automatically deduct from Western claims. Not that it matters. Russia is not the party busifying people to desperately shore up combat losses.
Sam Adams rank	Thu May 28 23:06:02 "Russia is not the party busifying people to desperately shore up combat losses. " Ahahahahahahaha Poor jergul goes from "we will take keeeeev in 3 days" to "we only suffered a quarter million kia(which is still the russian cope figure lol)"
Seb rank	Thu May 28 23:39:46 Jergul: "The number is certainly significantly less than 500k or the speech would have given a higher inflated number." Not necessarily: it could just be the upper end of what they think it's plausible. GCHQ is signals intelligence, MoD are normally the ones briefing on casualty figures. I would not be surprised the source for GCHQ is the BBC/Media watch figure extrapolated as suggested. 235k is certainly an undercount - the question is only by how much. "The information on each soldier is as publically available" We know that this is not true because there's plenty of complaints in Russian social media about Russian govt lying about individual deaths. "We live in a social media driven information age, buddy." Sure, but that's not a convincing argument that every death would be discoverable. Not everyone has a social media account, not every death leaves a social media footprint. "Because social media" is not at all a convincing argument for the BBC being 100% of deaths than "surely their obits would be in the Times". If you have 223 as a number, that's obviously incredible.
jergul rank	Fri May 29 07:48:41 Sammy How is winning in Afganistan, Iraq, or Iran going? Did Iran unconditionally surrender yet? Like that is something your president actually said. As opposed to 3 days. Ukrainian KIA are at least double and probably more than what Russia is suffering. Whatever that number is. Very sad, but Russia is still net up men of military age by millions. It is not the country getting depopulated. How you ask? Glide bomb, missile, drone and artillery superiority. The side with glide bomb supremacy is always the side inflicting most casualties dummy. You know that. Seb It is a wish and dream number given in a speech for propaganda purposes. My range estimate is correct.
jergul rank	Fri May 29 07:52:54 223 is within range because there are overcounting factors baked into the method and there are also variances in how killed are counted that can deflate the number. Is a car accident in the SMO zone a "killed" for example? Or a murder? Or any other non-combat related death you can imagine.
jergul rank	Fri May 29 07:59:14 Also, the comparison to the mediazona method is not "the Times" in the UK. It is comprehensive media and internet scrubs combined with physical visits to cemetaries. You think that happening in the UK would miss many people killed? Well, then you are in CT territory along with anyone who believes that the West is hiding all kinds of Nato deaths in Ukraine by attributing to heart attacks, accidents or strokes Nato deaths that in fact were caused by Russian strikes. Oh, so many Nato people killed. It cannot possibly be counted /s.
Seb rank	Fri May 29 10:18:38 Jergul: " a car accident in the SMO zone a "killed" for example? " Yes. A death or wounding of a soldier in a deployment is still counted: a soldier unavailable for combat. Cf. casualties from disease that are historically counted as casualties. It's not about scoring points. "Ukrainian KIA are at least double and probably more than what Russia is suffering" Hmm unlikely. Russia spends more time on the offensive, and it's tactics on the offensive trend to involve taking loads of casualties. "You think that happening in the UK would miss many people killed?" Yes I think it probably would, but also the UK is a small, dense population; Russia is huge and sparse and they draw a lot of folks from piss poor regions with shitty infrastructure. Then there's the political repression, censorship etc. it isn't an open society. And as I said we know perfectly well that circulating on telegram and others are various groups of people who think their kids are dead but the govt refuses to confirm. So yes, I would be surprised indeed if you could approach 100% confirmation of actual deaths in this way.
jergul rank	Fri May 29 10:34:48 Seb Funny how "non-combat related deaths" are a feature of Western reporting statistics that simply do not apply to Russia in your mind. The whole Syrski scheme is to prioritise the creation and manning of assault brigades. Odd if that is inherently more condusive to manpower losses that demonstratably are close to catastrophic for Ukraine. You know, the country that not only has mass mobilization, it is also compelled to literally round up people on the streets through busification. Yah, at least twice as many KIAs for Ukraine than for Russia and probably significantly more. But feel free to postulate how Russia handing over 1000 dead Ukrainians to receive 35 Russian corpses in exchange proves Russia is losing way more than Ukraine. Not a one time thing btw. The exchange ratios are habitually in that range. Russian internet penetration is in the high 90s, just like in the UK. Strawman. Nobody is claiming 100% confirmation. Just something significantly about 50%. Way closer to 90% than 50%. Remember, the metric mediazona/bbc uses also has overreporting issues. My estimate is correct.
Seb rank	Fri May 29 11:04:54 Jergul: I'm not sure what you are trying to say "a feature... do not apply to Russia". When we talk of French casualties in the march to Moscow, it includes deaths from disease etc. When we talk of British casualties in Crimea, we include death from diseases etc. When we talk about casualties in WW1 and WW2 again we include diseases, accidents etc. So why wouldn't we include it in the Ukraine war? " You know, the country that not only has mass mobilization, it is also compelled to literally round up people on the streets through busification" Ukraine's issue seems to be attraction and retention (record AWOLs, collapse in volunteers). Regarding bodies, Russian bodies tend to stay in Russian controlled territory in the first place, drones being a significant source of lethality and there's plenty of evidence Russia misclassifies Russian bodies as Ukrainian in these exchanges (I would not be surprised that a lot of this is linked to chronic under reporting by Russian front line units; Russian war bloggers complain of this kind of corruption). Meanwhile there's plenty of evidence that Russian losses are starting to effect the economy with significant labour shortages. It's interesting though, you'd think the same robust methods used by BBC/Media watch would work even better in Ukraine.
Seb rank	Fri May 29 11:08:34 "Russian internet penetration is in the high 90s" Which isn't the same as social media usage of course. The idea that because someone uses the internet, or their family members do you'll be able to determine with 100% accuracy that they have died in a war seems unrealistic to me.
jergul rank	Fri May 29 12:38:26 https://ww.../crime-and-defence/the-fallen/ Yawn. Yes, you talk about non-combat related deaths everywhere, all the time /s. Ukraine's problem is soldiers getting killed. It leads to all kinds of retention and recruitment problems for would be patriots. Remember the lineups of 2022 and early 2023? I wonder what dampened their enthusiasm...well besides the high likelihood of dying of course. Russia is still net up by quite a few million people as the result of its invasion, occupation and annexation. Labour shortages have to do with a heightened demand for labour.
jergul rank	Fri May 29 12:39:47 In sum, my estimate is correct. Your thoughts are cope.
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