Utopia Talk - Politics - Iran has huge missile arsenal,

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Utopia Talk / Politics / Iran has huge missile arsenal,

williamthebastard
rank Thu May 28 17:20:17
Iran is regaining access to vast quantities of missiles stored in underground facilities, new satellite imagery analyzed by CNN shows, casting doubt on US President Donald Trump’s claims of having all but obliterated Tehran’s arsenal. During the war, Israeli-US strikes put many of these complexes out of commission by blocking their entry points, trapping a large portion of Iran’s launchers and crippling its ability to fire missiles. Now, using just bulldozers and dump trucks, Iran is undoing the effects of a strategy that involved an enormous amount of Israeli-US firepower. The Pentagon stands by the success of its campaign. CNN’s Tamara Qiblawi reports, with analysis from Thomas Bordeaux.

http://edi...nearths-missile-arsenal-digvid

williamthebastard
rank Sun May 31 12:57:32
Iran is poised to fire far more long-range missiles at Israel and other Middle Eastern nations after rapidly digging out its buried arsenals – an effort that highlights the limits to US bombing strategy, experts said.

But satellite images reviewed by CNN show how Iran has used simple equipment such as bulldozers and dump trucks to counter those costly campaigns — suggesting that Tehran’s missile capabilities can’t be destroyed just by targeting tunnel entrances, experts said.

CNN found that Iran has now unblocked 50 out of the 69 tunnel entrances struck by the US and Israel at 18 underground missile facilities.

Iran has repaired other parts of the bases as well, including roads that the US and Israel bombed to prevent missile launchers from using them. Satellite images show almost all these craters have now been filled, and at two sites, even repaved.

As Iran recovers its missiles, and restores functionality to its missile bases, analysts are concerned that the continued threat posed by this arsenal is being underestimated, especially given the dwindling supply of US missile interceptors.
“You have to use very sophisticated, very expensive weapons to do this kind of damage, and the recovery is very low tech – it’s just bulldozers.”

http://edi...pened-us-strategy-bombing-invs

Hrothgar
rank Sun May 31 18:37:17
It's almost like this "war" was thought up over lunch amongst people with such a high level of ignorance and arrogance that they could not conceive of plan A failing. (killing a tyrant that immediately leads to government collapse and empowerment of more friendly forces)

With WMD use out of the question, everything that came after was just grasping at straws with the limited power that air only dominance allows - which is a very short lived type of control. As soon as the airpower is withdrawn, the opposing forces on the ground can go about their business unhindered. This is an obvious scenario, and one the leaders of Israel and the US were utterly foolish to ignore.

Once again, Trump's admin proves itself buffoons in the most egregious ways. The most complete and immediate US strategic loss of any conflict it's engaged in during it's history.

IF somehow Iran gives up it's nuclear program and doesn't project direct control of the Strait in the coming months, I'll change my opinion. But right now, there are no signs of such, and we're 99.999% more likely to just end up with some shitty Trumpian agreement that's far worse than what Obama worked to put in place a decade ago.

murder
rank Sun May 31 19:52:32

I imagine that there will be no agreement, and Trump will just keep bombing the nuclear sites on a regular basis.

-

williamthebastard
rank Sun May 31 19:58:06
Until Iran says, youve spent billions on bombing a dead cess pool while we were busy building nuclear missiles 1000 miles away that are now aimed at Washington and Tel Aviv.

murder
rank Sun May 31 20:43:56

Iran should not be able to build nuclear sites or missile sites without satellites spotting it.

Not to mention all the Israeli spies they have running around.

-

williamthebastard
rank Sun May 31 21:02:13
Israel isnt this fantastically clever country that teaches agents to be indistinguishable from Iranians - Iran has always had a quite well protected Iranian-Jewish population.
Its like saying Scotland is amazing because there are some/many scots that speak with a London dialect.

I dont think your belief that the USA will be immediately aware of any of the most covert military secrets in Iran is likely for one second.

williamthebastard
rank Sun May 31 21:12:46
We saw with NK and Bush that US rhetoric regarding nukes can switch in 30 seconds from "you are the axis of evil and we will destroy you" to "Hi buddy, wanna go for a beer?"
...when the US suddenly realized that NK had nukes

Seb
rank Sun May 31 23:45:34
Murder:

They have sites already. Ones too deep to hit.

And those underground train tunnels and launch shafts seem to work fine too.

As for the material at Fordow, if it isn't scattered (and it might well not be), enriched uranium is normally stored as solid uranium hexafluoride in steel cylinders (it sublimes at 60c) and 5g/cm^3 density.

So 400kg is only about 80 litres in volume.

I don't think even highly enriched UF6 can go critical: this stuff is eminently portable if it's intact. Nice steel cylinders weighing a few kilos you can likely carry in a few hundred backpacks trips with no worries because it's low activity alpha emitter thats entirely shielded by the cylinder itself.

What you are worried about is if nice convenient storage flasks are there that can be quietly accessed and removed by a few determined spelunkers over several months without being spotted.

jergul
rank Mon Jun 01 09:05:13
The whole idea behind the raid to grab it all was that the uranium is highly transportable.

Incidentally, the whole idea that Iran can no longer produces missiles and drones is wrong.

Some manufacturing capacity is also deep underground.

Seb
rank Mon Jun 01 12:48:00
Jergul:

I actually cut and pasted the details from a chat where I was explaining exactly why I wondered if the "rescued air-man" might have been part of a "Dien Bein HEU" op, or at least early reconnaissance: how badly damaged? Are the canisters intact or is it, as Trump now describes it, radioactive dust.

I would suspect the new deep facility at Nantz isn't for enrichment.

I think there will be some really interesting stories in a few decades of exactly what went on.

It's very difficult to tell too much, but Trump's escalation after the air-man was rescued seemed a negative reaction. That would tend to suggest there was a wider mission that failed or got derailed, but difficult to say really. Low confidence.

What I would say is that I think Iran has retained much of its capacity to cause havock in the region, plus effective defacto control of the straits from now on. This can be maintained when with reduced missile and drone capacity; and I don't think it will be hard for them to replace production capacity and stocks.

Meanwhile, the US has heavily depleted it's munitions, fucked off its allies, and failed to turn its tactical success into any kind of ensuring strategic advantage.

williamthebastard
rank Mon Jun 01 18:58:24

Iran is closing the strait after Israel started murdering people in Lebanon again. I suppose we have to face the fact that the strait is going to be shut down regularly for as long as Trump owns the USA.

Also interesting that Iran now makes zero distinction between the US and Israel, so any time Israel starts killing people again, the US gets punished.

williamthebastard
rank Mon Jun 01 19:01:08
Which is perfectly sane, since the US is the one country in the world that can tell Israel to stop, as Israel is utterly dependent on milking US tax dollars to wage war.

Paramount
rank Mon Jun 01 20:13:31
It is not Trump who owns the US. It is Israel. The tiny hats pedo mafia.

Paramount
rank Mon Jun 01 20:35:04
Trump doesn’t care, because the talks were BORING!

President Donald Trump on Monday shrugged off the possible collapse of peace negotiations with Iran, telling CNBC, “I don’t care if they’re over, honestly.”

“I really don’t care. I couldn’t care less,” Trump told CNBC’s Eamon Javers in a phone interview midday Monday, saying he thought the protracted discussions “started to get very boring.”

https://ww...ions-oil-israel-interview.html

Paramount
rank Mon Jun 01 20:36:00
In his call with CNBC, Trump said he wasn’t worried about oil prices, which spiked following the report earlier Monday in Iranian state media.

“I think the oil will be dropping like a rock in the very near, you know, the very near distance,” Trump said.

Paramount
rank Mon Jun 01 20:44:42
PRESIDENT TRUMP
We don’t need them. We don’t need NATO. They were very, very weak and very sad. What they said, they said we’ll help you as soon as the war is over. NATO, Europe has lost its way. They have a tremendous immigration problem, and they have a tremendous energy problem, because all they want to do is build windmills all over the place, so anyway.

- -

It’s not because we want to build windwills. It is because the US pedo mafia attacked and destroyed Europe’s energy infrastructure, the Nord Stream pipelines, and then lobbied/pressured Europe to cut itself off from cheap Russian energy.

jergul
rank Mon Jun 01 20:58:59
Seb
How is Dude 44 Bravo doing anyway? When should we expect the ticker tape parade?

I still suspect the rescue was a smokescreen to cover the debacle. Widely successful even. Who is comparing the botched HEU attempt with Carter's failed hostage rescue? Nobody.

show deleted posts

williamthebastard rank	Thu May 28 17:20:17 Iran is regaining access to vast quantities of missiles stored in underground facilities, new satellite imagery analyzed by CNN shows, casting doubt on US President Donald Trump’s claims of having all but obliterated Tehran’s arsenal. During the war, Israeli-US strikes put many of these complexes out of commission by blocking their entry points, trapping a large portion of Iran’s launchers and crippling its ability to fire missiles. Now, using just bulldozers and dump trucks, Iran is undoing the effects of a strategy that involved an enormous amount of Israeli-US firepower. The Pentagon stands by the success of its campaign. CNN’s Tamara Qiblawi reports, with analysis from Thomas Bordeaux. http://edi...nearths-missile-arsenal-digvid
williamthebastard rank	Sun May 31 12:57:32 Iran is poised to fire far more long-range missiles at Israel and other Middle Eastern nations after rapidly digging out its buried arsenals – an effort that highlights the limits to US bombing strategy, experts said. But satellite images reviewed by CNN show how Iran has used simple equipment such as bulldozers and dump trucks to counter those costly campaigns — suggesting that Tehran’s missile capabilities can’t be destroyed just by targeting tunnel entrances, experts said. CNN found that Iran has now unblocked 50 out of the 69 tunnel entrances struck by the US and Israel at 18 underground missile facilities. Iran has repaired other parts of the bases as well, including roads that the US and Israel bombed to prevent missile launchers from using them. Satellite images show almost all these craters have now been filled, and at two sites, even repaved. As Iran recovers its missiles, and restores functionality to its missile bases, analysts are concerned that the continued threat posed by this arsenal is being underestimated, especially given the dwindling supply of US missile interceptors. “You have to use very sophisticated, very expensive weapons to do this kind of damage, and the recovery is very low tech – it’s just bulldozers.” http://edi...pened-us-strategy-bombing-invs
Hrothgar rank	Sun May 31 18:37:17 It's almost like this "war" was thought up over lunch amongst people with such a high level of ignorance and arrogance that they could not conceive of plan A failing. (killing a tyrant that immediately leads to government collapse and empowerment of more friendly forces) With WMD use out of the question, everything that came after was just grasping at straws with the limited power that air only dominance allows - which is a very short lived type of control. As soon as the airpower is withdrawn, the opposing forces on the ground can go about their business unhindered. This is an obvious scenario, and one the leaders of Israel and the US were utterly foolish to ignore. Once again, Trump's admin proves itself buffoons in the most egregious ways. The most complete and immediate US strategic loss of any conflict it's engaged in during it's history. IF somehow Iran gives up it's nuclear program and doesn't project direct control of the Strait in the coming months, I'll change my opinion. But right now, there are no signs of such, and we're 99.999% more likely to just end up with some shitty Trumpian agreement that's far worse than what Obama worked to put in place a decade ago.
murder rank	Sun May 31 19:52:32 I imagine that there will be no agreement, and Trump will just keep bombing the nuclear sites on a regular basis. -
williamthebastard rank	Sun May 31 19:58:06 Until Iran says, youve spent billions on bombing a dead cess pool while we were busy building nuclear missiles 1000 miles away that are now aimed at Washington and Tel Aviv.
murder rank	Sun May 31 20:43:56 Iran should not be able to build nuclear sites or missile sites without satellites spotting it. Not to mention all the Israeli spies they have running around. -
williamthebastard rank	Sun May 31 21:02:13 Israel isnt this fantastically clever country that teaches agents to be indistinguishable from Iranians - Iran has always had a quite well protected Iranian-Jewish population. Its like saying Scotland is amazing because there are some/many scots that speak with a London dialect. I dont think your belief that the USA will be immediately aware of any of the most covert military secrets in Iran is likely for one second.
williamthebastard rank	Sun May 31 21:12:46 We saw with NK and Bush that US rhetoric regarding nukes can switch in 30 seconds from "you are the axis of evil and we will destroy you" to "Hi buddy, wanna go for a beer?" ...when the US suddenly realized that NK had nukes
Seb rank	Sun May 31 23:45:34 Murder: They have sites already. Ones too deep to hit. And those underground train tunnels and launch shafts seem to work fine too. As for the material at Fordow, if it isn't scattered (and it might well not be), enriched uranium is normally stored as solid uranium hexafluoride in steel cylinders (it sublimes at 60c) and 5g/cm^3 density. So 400kg is only about 80 litres in volume. I don't think even highly enriched UF6 can go critical: this stuff is eminently portable if it's intact. Nice steel cylinders weighing a few kilos you can likely carry in a few hundred backpacks trips with no worries because it's low activity alpha emitter thats entirely shielded by the cylinder itself. What you are worried about is if nice convenient storage flasks are there that can be quietly accessed and removed by a few determined spelunkers over several months without being spotted.
jergul rank	Mon Jun 01 09:05:13 The whole idea behind the raid to grab it all was that the uranium is highly transportable. Incidentally, the whole idea that Iran can no longer produces missiles and drones is wrong. Some manufacturing capacity is also deep underground.
Seb rank	Mon Jun 01 12:48:00 Jergul: I actually cut and pasted the details from a chat where I was explaining exactly why I wondered if the "rescued air-man" might have been part of a "Dien Bein HEU" op, or at least early reconnaissance: how badly damaged? Are the canisters intact or is it, as Trump now describes it, radioactive dust. I would suspect the new deep facility at Nantz isn't for enrichment. I think there will be some really interesting stories in a few decades of exactly what went on. It's very difficult to tell too much, but Trump's escalation after the air-man was rescued seemed a negative reaction. That would tend to suggest there was a wider mission that failed or got derailed, but difficult to say really. Low confidence. What I would say is that I think Iran has retained much of its capacity to cause havock in the region, plus effective defacto control of the straits from now on. This can be maintained when with reduced missile and drone capacity; and I don't think it will be hard for them to replace production capacity and stocks. Meanwhile, the US has heavily depleted it's munitions, fucked off its allies, and failed to turn its tactical success into any kind of ensuring strategic advantage.
williamthebastard rank	Mon Jun 01 18:58:24 Iran is closing the strait after Israel started murdering people in Lebanon again. I suppose we have to face the fact that the strait is going to be shut down regularly for as long as Trump owns the USA. Also interesting that Iran now makes zero distinction between the US and Israel, so any time Israel starts killing people again, the US gets punished.
williamthebastard rank	Mon Jun 01 19:01:08 Which is perfectly sane, since the US is the one country in the world that can tell Israel to stop, as Israel is utterly dependent on milking US tax dollars to wage war.
Paramount rank	Mon Jun 01 20:13:31 It is not Trump who owns the US. It is Israel. The tiny hats pedo mafia.
Paramount rank	Mon Jun 01 20:35:04 Trump doesn’t care, because the talks were BORING! President Donald Trump on Monday shrugged off the possible collapse of peace negotiations with Iran, telling CNBC, “I don’t care if they’re over, honestly.” “I really don’t care. I couldn’t care less,” Trump told CNBC’s Eamon Javers in a phone interview midday Monday, saying he thought the protracted discussions “started to get very boring.” https://ww...ions-oil-israel-interview.html
Paramount rank	Mon Jun 01 20:36:00 In his call with CNBC, Trump said he wasn’t worried about oil prices, which spiked following the report earlier Monday in Iranian state media. “I think the oil will be dropping like a rock in the very near, you know, the very near distance,” Trump said.
Paramount rank	Mon Jun 01 20:44:42 PRESIDENT TRUMP We don’t need them. We don’t need NATO. They were very, very weak and very sad. What they said, they said we’ll help you as soon as the war is over. NATO, Europe has lost its way. They have a tremendous immigration problem, and they have a tremendous energy problem, because all they want to do is build windmills all over the place, so anyway. - - It’s not because we want to build windwills. It is because the US pedo mafia attacked and destroyed Europe’s energy infrastructure, the Nord Stream pipelines, and then lobbied/pressured Europe to cut itself off from cheap Russian energy.
jergul rank	Mon Jun 01 20:58:59 Seb How is Dude 44 Bravo doing anyway? When should we expect the ticker tape parade? I still suspect the rescue was a smokescreen to cover the debacle. Widely successful even. Who is comparing the botched HEU attempt with Carter's failed hostage rescue? Nobody.
	show deleted posts

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