Utopia Talk - Politics - Musk: "SpaceX worth

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Utopia Talk / Politics / Musk: "SpaceX worth > rest of Earth"

murder
rank Fri Jul 10 18:50:11
"Elon Musk once again captured investor attention with a blunt claim on X. He said SpaceX "will be worth more than the rest of Earth" if the company accomplishes its long-term goals."

People keep giving this guy their money.

The government keeps giving this guy OUR money.

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murder
rank Fri Jul 10 18:53:15

"If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it." -- Joseph Goebbels

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Forwyn
rank Fri Jul 10 19:44:20
Yes, an interplanetary organization can easily outstrip one planet at scale. This is simple mathematics.

Seb
rank Fri Jul 10 20:11:17
Forwyn:

Lol. So stupid.

Firstly and most importantly Space X isn't an interplanetary company. It hasn't reached the moon yet. So this is like a fusion startup saying it should be valued as a kashardev I civilization because that's their ambition to produce planetary level of electricity and have a monopoly on that and all economic activity on the planet. Cool, nice, but really all they have is some useful tech and services, and insane ambitions.

Secondly, such a valuation or even one based on an expectation of such but discounted for risk, is based on the idea that SpaceX is in a position to capture most of the value chains involving the planet. This is like e.g. American Airways claiming it's value should exceed that of the US because it has the ability to travel to all the other continents on earth. Er, no. That's not how it works. It's not even on track to be a company that could capture all value chains on another planet (say mars). They don't have any of the technologies actually needed to address the technical challenges of settling Mars. Indeed just getting there is likely the easy part.

Thirdly Do we really expect the value of Mars to exceed the value of earth on Earth stock exchanges? Think about what that actually means? How do you actually get capital to Mars or Martian derived capital back to earth? You can basically think of space travel like a giant fucking capital controls mechanism that can't be got around; even if we imagine a future where the internal economy of Mars is a big as an OECD country, which isn't likely.

Finally. Cool, SpaceX is burbling on about how they will perfect the technology to get to Mars, ergo they should be valued greater than the whole value of the Earth economy. But where is their moat? Ultimately there will be fast followers, many of which will be Chinese and likely rapidly outproduce SpaceX if there's that much value, and their likely response to SpaceX trying to claim it owns Mars is just to forcibly remove SpaceX. To earth, if they are nice. To the local biomass reclamation facilities is not.

murder
rank Fri Jul 10 20:32:47

"Yes, an interplanetary organization can easily outstrip one planet at scale. This is simple mathematics."

So you're expecting a more than 8 billion humans in space?

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show deleted posts

murder rank	Fri Jul 10 18:50:11 "Elon Musk once again captured investor attention with a blunt claim on X. He said SpaceX "will be worth more than the rest of Earth" if the company accomplishes its long-term goals." People keep giving this guy their money. The government keeps giving this guy OUR money. -
murder rank	Fri Jul 10 18:53:15 "If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it." -- Joseph Goebbels -
Forwyn rank	Fri Jul 10 19:44:20 Yes, an interplanetary organization can easily outstrip one planet at scale. This is simple mathematics.
Seb rank	Fri Jul 10 20:11:17 Forwyn: Lol. So stupid. Firstly and most importantly Space X isn't an interplanetary company. It hasn't reached the moon yet. So this is like a fusion startup saying it should be valued as a kashardev I civilization because that's their ambition to produce planetary level of electricity and have a monopoly on that and all economic activity on the planet. Cool, nice, but really all they have is some useful tech and services, and insane ambitions. Secondly, such a valuation or even one based on an expectation of such but discounted for risk, is based on the idea that SpaceX is in a position to capture most of the value chains involving the planet. This is like e.g. American Airways claiming it's value should exceed that of the US because it has the ability to travel to all the other continents on earth. Er, no. That's not how it works. It's not even on track to be a company that could capture all value chains on another planet (say mars). They don't have any of the technologies actually needed to address the technical challenges of settling Mars. Indeed just getting there is likely the easy part. Thirdly Do we really expect the value of Mars to exceed the value of earth on Earth stock exchanges? Think about what that actually means? How do you actually get capital to Mars or Martian derived capital back to earth? You can basically think of space travel like a giant fucking capital controls mechanism that can't be got around; even if we imagine a future where the internal economy of Mars is a big as an OECD country, which isn't likely. Finally. Cool, SpaceX is burbling on about how they will perfect the technology to get to Mars, ergo they should be valued greater than the whole value of the Earth economy. But where is their moat? Ultimately there will be fast followers, many of which will be Chinese and likely rapidly outproduce SpaceX if there's that much value, and their likely response to SpaceX trying to claim it owns Mars is just to forcibly remove SpaceX. To earth, if they are nice. To the local biomass reclamation facilities is not.
murder rank	Fri Jul 10 20:32:47 "Yes, an interplanetary organization can easily outstrip one planet at scale. This is simple mathematics." So you're expecting a more than 8 billion humans in space? -
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