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Utopia Talk / Politics / Cryptocurrency Corner
nhill
Member
Thu Aug 19 13:50:00
Eat a dick, haters!
nhill
Member
Thu Aug 19 13:50:38
Selling my ETH here at 3120. What a beautiful pump.
Rugian
Member
Thu Aug 19 14:00:41
Biden's coming for your Bitcoins. Lololol
nhill
Member
Thu Aug 19 14:06:11
Was a bit worried we wouldn't see follow through, but this looks like it has more juice. Buying back in $3140!
nhill
Member
Thu Aug 19 14:06:57
I don't have any Bitcoins. And the IRS already said they won't enforce the bill lmmmmmao. Owned again Rugbug.
nhill
Member
Thu Aug 19 14:08:10
Number go up >:)
nhill
Member
Thu Aug 19 17:18:12
Selling 3154
nhill
Member
Thu Aug 19 17:34:27
Trading Performance June 29th-Aug 19th:

BTC: +30.9%
nhill: +63.2%
S&P 500: +2.6%

Killin' it lately. LETS GO!!
nhill
Member
Thu Aug 19 17:38:03
Nim

You can also apply these principles option trading in the regular market.

I started option trading the major indexes and commodities last month, almost always with a long bias. I don't use much money, just enjoying the game. If I told you the % gains I made in the last month you wouldn't even believe it. But options giveth and options taketh. Risky stuff.
nhill
Member
Fri Aug 20 00:21:29
Buy 3215
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Fri Aug 20 05:21:54
Well, this isn’t really a contest, but I did better than BTC, +40,3% in that same period. Though you are probably only spending a fraction of the time I am, effeciency wise you are perhaps doing 1000% better ;-)

Yea, this isn’t really a contest, but I am very happy. I have ow come into a profitable win/lose ratio. The first rule is to presetve capital, rather than make a profit, which I think is the thing that has saved me here from flunking early. And the more money I made, the more careful I have become.

To your comment about options, NO! This is addicting in a bad way now, I can’t go to sleep, the FOMO has set in real hard. I have been reading and realized ”swing trading” or something in that time frame is what I need to do. From what I understand all the same principles, tools and indicators apply, regardless of time frame, what is your opinion on that?

I don’t want to hodl, but I do not have the time for day trading, which is a full time 8+ hour workday. What do I do?
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Fri Aug 20 05:48:04
Here is my main problem, I do not understand risk management (the name of this game), other than staring at the screen and cashing out early and instead trading often, scalping and when the opportunity is there, surfing momentun. But this kind of ”risk management” while it has been proftiable isn’t doable with a job.
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Fri Aug 20 05:56:33
As you can understand, my style of risk managment also makes me miss the bigger trends.
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Fri Aug 20 07:02:27
The algo just went to 100% ETH.
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Fri Aug 20 07:03:07
Nevermind it's back again to 16%, strange. It was at 100% just a few seconds ago.
nhill
Member
Fri Aug 20 12:41:20
The UI might have had a glitch, but you can track the actual algo transactions here:

http://eth...ce30242c4a2a1c022ed155ed5fba83

Looks like it's still cautiously long ETH with about 33% capital.

Remember, the purpose of this algo is to prevent drawdowns, not to make money. It's marketed to institutional investors that are scared of crypto's volatility.

So if it has any ETH, that means it's a decent time to buy (according to the model). If it has 100% ETH you are probably safe taking out leverage.

But, overall, it's only one tool in my toolbox.

The biggest way I've been using it is simply not buying when it is 100% USDC because that means the algo has identified a big risk.

Other than that, the usual tools (ranges, coinalyze, price, volume, volatility) still guide my process. The algo's more of a sanity check.
nhill
Member
Fri Aug 20 12:44:00
> Well, this isn’t really a contest, but I did better than BTC, +40,3% in that same period. Though you are probably only spending a fraction of the time I am, effeciency wise you are perhaps doing 1000% better ;-)

Haha, no, it's awesome that you outperformed me. I'm super proud! And don't sell yourself short, this isn't an easy game. I love seeing my peeps succeed.

My problem was I took a huge loss on the short squeeze, so I've spent a lot of time analyzing that. If I had been long instead of short there, I'd have doubled my trading money. :) And now I can see why it was primed for such a short squeeze, so next time I'll be ready. >:)
nhill
Member
Fri Aug 20 13:33:15
Taking profits and shorting ETH @ 3240
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Fri Aug 20 13:50:17
I have not done better than you! You are 60% and I am 40%. In that light and considering the time spent, this really isn’t a contest. You left me in the dust, not even tryingz. lol :)
nhill
Member
Fri Aug 20 14:51:08
Oh I thought you meant +40% over BTC, for a total of +70%.

But outperforming a highly manipulated asset trading it is impressive nonetheless. Lot of people fail at that for a long time before they succeed. :)
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Fri Aug 20 15:35:54
Thank you, it means a lot coming from you :) it would have been very lonely, I am lucky I have someone to talk to and learn from. Like, who knew that after 20+ years of coming here discussing feminism, gender theory, immigration and god knows what else.

I would have never done this if it wasn't for you. I remember when I told you about my uncles friend and them day trading, 50% commission on the profits. I remember you said, it depends on how well they can do compared to doing it yourself. I had zero confidence, but now in hind sight, for that deal to have been better, they would have had to do 80%. Which I don't think is impossible, just not very likely!
Habebe
Member
Fri Aug 20 16:03:57
"Thank you, it means a lot coming from you :) it would have been very lonely, I am lucky I have someone to talk to and learn from."

Geez buy him dinner first.
nhill
Member
Fri Aug 20 16:35:06
Haha. It's all love in the Crypto Corner, Habebe! <3

My pleasure, Nim. Many are missing out on such a big opportunity, glad at least a few here won't.
nhill
Member
Fri Aug 20 16:46:24
> I have been reading and realized ”swing trading” or something in that time frame is what I need to do. From what I understand all the same principles, tools and indicators apply, regardless of time frame, what is your opinion on that?

Oh I missed this question.

Yeah for swing trading you just need to target a good entry point. That's really my preference. Swing trades are usually 3-14 days, but in crypto things move fast.

http://i.imgur.com/6klOVFz.png

Here are some swing trades mapped out on $ETH the past few weeks.

I hit on 3/4 of those.

These ones are 2-3 days in length as things are still moving fast, but once the market settles, 3-14 days is more normal.

You can also try to swing to the downside, but those move faster and are harder to time.

But, anyways, $ETH went up about 20% in that time period. A good long-only swing trader would have increased their account by 45% in that same period.

Of course, identifying the entry and exit points is the hard part. I rarely get the full move on my swing trades, but even capturing just half (and assuming long-only) of the swing would outperform holding.

When I'm actively trading, I trade on 3 time frames, the day trade, the swing trade, and the long-term trade. I still haven't sold my bag of $ETH that I bought at $1750. I'll probably hold it for a year or more, unless things start to crash again.
nhill
Member
Fri Aug 20 16:59:10
Shorting 3295, avg short entry 3268
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Fri Aug 20 17:03:55
Habebe
You know the expression, yadda yadda teach a man to fish yadda yadda and so on? Well Nhill taught me how to fish. Do you know how many noob questions he has answered? The least I can do is thank him. I can actually quantify his value in my life in USD, literally.

Nhill
I will dive deeper into this and try to educated myself more on risk management.
nhill
Member
Fri Aug 20 17:34:30
One of the best things you can do for risk management is to swing trade. As you get used to getting a feel for strong and weak markets, the chance of you experiencing the occasional 60-85% correction becomes pretty much 0. As you know to exit your positions early.

That's how I was able to avoid the majority of my pain earlier this year. I posted shortly before the big crash saying I was 50% in stablecoins, and then the next day posted as being 95% in stablecoins. Then I was able to load up on the bottom again.

If I was HODLing, I would still be underwater, but my overall account value has been up all year. Had some bad moments like when I shorted Bitcoin around 35K, but was able to recover from that in the past few weeks.

When you trade, you'll have some bad streaks, but crypto has such a fat left tail (huge risk of black swan events), it'll all pay off over time. At least that has been my experience.
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Fri Aug 20 18:07:09
Right, fat tails, like when suddenly huge volumes come from nowhere and drive the price up 4-5% in a day. And this is all because it is the gold rush of the wild west, in general there is a lot of upside. Just don't stray into the badlands (shitcoins and scams) and carry a gun (manage the risks).
nhill
Member
Fri Aug 20 19:56:44
You got it. :)
Habebe
Member
Fri Aug 20 20:27:19
Nimi, Yeah, no I get it, Im just fucking around.
nhill
Member
Sat Aug 21 14:45:06
Nim

Here's a good post detailing many of the patterns we've spoken about here, and some we haven't:

http://www...er-Master-This-Education-Post/
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Sat Aug 21 15:59:35
I have looked at a bunch of those articles, but none that summarized the important details this well. Many thanks.
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Sun Aug 22 11:31:04
Bought ETH 3172, falling wedge :)

Very caution though, the last time we fell to this level, we spent a little time here and then fell down below 3100.
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Sun Aug 22 13:10:29
Dam it I started building legos with my son and forgot all about this :)

ETH
Bought 3172
Sold 3158
nhill
Member
Sun Aug 22 13:58:21
Be careful trading solely on one pattern. They are other signals, but I'd also confirm with other signals. I'm still shorting from $3268, this has been a multi day plan and still paying off.

I think the last pattern was more of a bearish pennant than a falling wedge, but the two are hard to distinguish.

Have fun with the legos!
nhill
Member
Mon Aug 23 02:58:48
That was a big Sunday pump. I'm holding onto my short position, but missed out on this move. No problem. It didn't fit my parameters for a trade. Will see if I can figure out how to fill that gap. But my assessment is still more of a pullback than a little 5% hit. Who knows!
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Mon Aug 23 04:00:23
Yea, I missed most of it, managed to squeeze some money out of ADA and almost do 1% today all in all. I struggled with a couple trades not making any money. Too nervous to let any long positions go for any amount of time unsupervised. The drawback is that I get in the way of myself and jump out at the first sign of trouble, consider that my first position with ADA yesterday started at 2.59!
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Mon Aug 23 04:00:48
today = yesterday
nhill
Member
Mon Aug 23 04:30:01
It's a tough time right now. We had a massive rally for weeks but I'm seeing signs of it cooling off, finally. Which is a good thing. Markets that go straight up without any corrections along the way, tend to go straight back down.

This week might actually be a big up week, as last week stalled out and everyone (including myself) shorted. I was worried about shorting because the setup was too obvious (which means a short squeeze can happen). But I don't give it much longer than a week before a -10% week or more.

My thought is the first real pullback will finally give the laggards an entry point. Many refuse to enter a position until after a correction, so that would be bullish.
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Mon Aug 23 04:50:49
Yes I have noticed things are difficult right now, this is good for me to experience. If I am to do a royal fuck up, it is now. A side ways period followed by a huge drop is the trial of fire I feel.

My ”uncle crypto” has gotten the same signals from his friends, for what it is worth. My sister and her husband are also getting into crypto, a speculative amount of money, but I told them to wait right now.

The summary of my experience (going back to work tomorrow), I think I could day trade for a living. I won’t, atleast not right now. If that is to happen then it will be with this money currently used, I will not put more money into the day trade pile, instead make that pile grow seperated from the rest of my finances. It is a basic way for me to manage the risks of my relatively low skill level :) I still consider that I have been lucky and made most my money in a crazy rally. Final exam awaits.
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Mon Aug 23 06:06:49
I have been listening to a crypto podcast "What is money". He had a guest on that said something that made sense to me, this guest was detailing his life making money. He said, "an entrepreneur sees opportunity in everything, an investors sees the risks in everything". If there is a personality type that goes with those, I fit into the latter. Sometimes I voice my concerns on this forum about the existential risks, like any day now the world may retrace back to some more uncivilized level ;-)

I am hedging my bet on crypto, with a hunters rifle and canned food. lol :)

***
Which brings me to something you said. You said you hedge your crypto with rare earth minerals. Rare earth minerals are needed for tech, crypto is tech. But if this specific tech fails, the chance of all tech failing is zero, so rare earth minerals are a good bet in this current paradigm to balance the more speculative and specialized use of the minerals. Is that the gist of it?

nhill
Member
Mon Aug 23 18:36:48
"Which brings me to something you said. You said you hedge your crypto with rare earth minerals. Rare earth minerals are needed for tech, crypto is tech. But if this specific tech fails, the chance of all tech failing is zero, so rare earth minerals are a good bet in this current paradigm to balance the more speculative and specialized use of the minerals. Is that the gist of it?"

Yes, that's a big part of the thesis. Rare earth materials are necessary for tech innovations, particularly around energy. Crypto fuels the demand for it, but pretty much anything futuristic requires an influx of rare earth.

I use the $REMX ETF to diversify my interests, and have been for a while. It's up over 100% the past year, and doesn't show much sign of slowing down.

It does have around 15% exposure to China because a lot of rare earth comes from there, so that's the big risk/opportunity now.
nhill
Member
Mon Aug 23 18:39:01
My favorite prepper hedge is salt. I have hundreds of pounds of salt stored up.

People think gold will trade in worst of scenarios...lol. ok. Everyone will want salt and I don't hear anyone talking about it. It's always gold, guns, and ammo in the prepper communities.

But guess what was used as a currency before all those? ;)
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Tue Aug 24 06:41:32
That is fucking brilliant my friend. Salt, of course! It is so easy that it is obfuscated by shine and novelty of gold and guns.
nhill
Member
Tue Aug 24 09:13:10
Indeed. :)
nhill
Member
Tue Aug 24 09:13:52
Short finally back in profit now too :D
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Tue Aug 24 09:35:23
I'm gonna buy a speculative amount of Cardano 2,7. Been listening to stuff and I think Cardano can double at least in this market cycle. I am not saying anything about the code and stuff, I trust you. Just from making money perspective I think it can be made.

You know the student has to rebel against the teacher in some way :)
nhill
Member
Tue Aug 24 10:09:53
Haha, I absolutely think Cardano could double or event triple from here. I'd just make sure to secure your bag when it does. Because, IMO, the smart contract release won't live up to hype and there'll be a nasty sell the news event.

But I also didn't think $DOGE would still have above $0.10 with such shaky technical foundations, so I've been wrong with my tech-first thesis before.

It's what I know best, so I stick to it. I feel confident parking my money in a platform where I know the underlying tech is great because, time and time again, eventually investors and traders come to the same conclusion and it pays off big time.

But investing based on social sentiments is an idea I love but have never been good at. Maybe that can be your forte? Then we can learn from each other. :)
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Tue Aug 24 10:42:52
"just make sure to secure your bag when it does."

Yea I will probably stay careful and sell when/if it hit 4-5. At least half of it at that time. Will keep an eye on the news about it.

"But investing based on social sentiments is an idea I love but have never been good at. Maybe that can be your forte? Then we can learn from each other. :)"


Who know :)? But it is funny because I have been having the thought lately. What if it is the social sentiment one(s) that ushers the broader acceptance? Building on your sentiment, don't short a cult. Apple comes to mind as a story like that. The whole thing around Steve Jobs, the cultish and loyal consumer base and the fact that they indeed ushered in some major changes in consumer electronics and behavior.
nhill
Member
Tue Aug 24 13:24:02
Going to err on the side of caution here and close my ETH short from $3268 for a profit of 2.6%

Open @ 3268
Close @ 3184
Profit @ +2.6%

Awesome to book a gain on the short side in a bull market. >:)
nhill
Member
Tue Aug 24 13:24:50
I think we'll keep dropping but it can just as easily pump me underwater so I'll count my blessings here.
nhill
Member
Tue Aug 24 13:41:46
"Who know :)? But it is funny because I have been having the thought lately. What if it is the social sentiment one(s) that ushers the broader acceptance? Building on your sentiment, don't short a cult."

I think social sentiment is a necessary component, but it's also more ephemeral. In the end, if you don't have quality tech to back up the sentiment, the market will *eventually* find out.

It's like an overvalued company in the regular stock market, like Gamestop with a 5500 forward P/E ratio.

It was valued at around 25B earlier this year. Of course, that was all based on social sentiment. It's since dropped 10 billion in value, and I can all but guarantee within 5 years from now it will be down another 10 billion in value. As they don't have the fundamentals to support such a high market cap.

It's the same with crypto. $DOGE has a $38B market cap right now. It's all the rage.

But earlier this year it had a $90B market cap and before it got hyped it had about $1B market cap.

But the tech underlying it is garbage. They have some runway now to fix fundamental issues (the most fundamental being that it was coded as a joke with an infinite unpredictable supply), but nobody w/ an eye for quality projects would put it in the top 10 projects. Right now it's #7.

But, what social sentiment is good for is trading or investing on a medium term. You can ride the hype wave and make insane profits.

Investing in tech, however, hasn't failed me yet, but sometimes I have to be patient for a year or two before it pays off. The market finds value eventually.

For example, look at $CELL. I told y'all about it months ago and it was around $0.45 at the time. I didn't know when it would get discovered but I knew it was solid tech. Well now it exploded to $1.94 this week (back down to $1.29 now, but it's a long term play).

The other one I pointed out was $DERO, in terms of tech. It still has a lot of room to grow but it's almost doubled since I pointed it out here. Same with $FTM. I gave that here at $0.24, now it's $0.55. $SOL I think was around $35 when I shared it. Now it's over $70.

And the cool thing is I don't feel any need to sell these, even after they've all doubled. Because I'm confident in the tech!
nhill
Member
Tue Aug 24 13:42:30
That's not to argue one way or another, just pointing out the differences in style.

I'd love to get better at social sentiment trading and make some killer medium term plays like $ADA. But I'm not there yet. :)
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Tue Aug 24 14:03:04
No you are correct, the underlying tech can’t be garbage. To go with the same example, Apple doesn’t produce garbage. But it also doesn’t need to be excellent of the best in sime niche that is ’t relevant for the ordinary consumer/user. Integrity and security, those can never be compromised of course. Thing is, I don’t really know what is wrong with Cardano’s code. I am talking in general terms :)

I guess my point is that social sentiment is important for building a brand and brands are important for spreading this and increasing acceptance. Of course there are many ways for such brands to be built, I look forward to watching brands rise in a de-centralized and organic way.
nhill
Member
Tue Aug 24 14:22:44
There's nothing wrong with it, per-se. It's not very high quality in my personal assessment, but let's ignore that.

Their biggest advancement so far is what? Nothing really. Their biggest upcoming feature is what? Smart contracts. Well, there are dozens of L1 and L2 chains with smart contracts already.

What does Cardano do well? I honestly don't know. Other than building a cult around some random dude that knew Vitalik back in the day (Charles Hoskinson), not much.

How much TPS? AFAIK around 300. Well $SOL can do 50,000 TPS.

How much does the gas cost? For $ADA around $0.40 at time of writing. $SOL costs about $0.008.

How long until transaction finality? Around 3 seconds. $SOL? 0.4 seconds on average.

And remember, this is all *theoretical*. $ADA might not even be able to fulfill these promises! Who knows, it doesn't even work yet, lol.

$SOL has been working for almost a year now and fulfilled all of its promises. It has a suite of industry leading dApps, a great codebase, and industry backing.

$ADA has...? Empty promises (so far) and some dude that hung around the Ethereum foundation when it started up.

Technically speaking, it's not even fair to compare the two. $SOL is superior in every regard by virtue of the fact that it works.

I'm sure that $SOL will exceed $ADA in market cap within 3 years. And considering it's the better tech with a cheaper price, it's almost a no brainer.
nhill
Member
Tue Aug 24 14:35:07
IMO investing long term in $ADA over $SOL is akin to investing in pets.com over Amazon in the tech bubble.

Yeah, shipping books is boring, they didn't have that much name recognition. Yeah pets.com had flashy commercials you saw on national TV (including the largest TV spot in the world, the Super Bowl) and did something cool and novel, like shipping you all your pet supplies, instead of Amazon which was really only one layer removed from magazine shipment.

But once the bubble burst, you see who was standing. The company with the better business plan and fundamentals.
nhill
Member
Tue Aug 24 14:44:24
The biggest problem I have with $ADA, and, this is not a knock on you, but a conclusion I reached prior to my knowledge of your dabbling in it, the biggest problem I have is that no one I talk to about it can tell me *any* valid fundamental reason why they invested in it.

To me, it represents ignorance of the crypto ecosystem and susceptibility to being marketed the shiniest toys (e.g. $DOGE) without even knowing how they work.

The only reason this can happen right now is because crypto is so early and only about 500,000 people in the world (and I'm being generous here) actually understand how it works. And because it's so non-user-friendly (by design, for now), they have no way to test it themselves.

But that won't always be the case. There will be a time here soon where people will be able to sign into a (most likely wrapped) dApp and see the practical differences very easily. And, at that point, how many users are going to go with the option that can only handle 300 transactions per second, is 80X more expensive, and 3X laggier?

Sure, tech isn't the only thing that matters. But when one technology blows another out of the water by such a huge margin, it begins to matter very quickly.

Imagine if Apple suddenly only released phones that were 3x slower than Android phones, but raised the price by 80X? That's how ridiculous the comparison here is, but, because it's not obvious, they can get away with it. :)
nhill
Member
Tue Aug 24 14:50:14
Now, Ethereum is much more expensive than both $ADA and $SOL, yet I still support that project. Seems like a contradiction, but it's not. $SOL/$ADA are PoS, and $ETH PoW, so we'd be comparing Apples and Oranges on a cost and performance basis.

You sacrifice speed and price for network security with Ethereum. And, considering we are talking about financial fabric, security is a pretty damn good selling point.

I'm actually more interested in Ergo than Ethereum now. Pay attention to this one. It's PoW by design (Ethereum was PoW haphazardly, as proven by ETH 2.0), and has some great optimizations that make it a better tech than Ethereum. However, it's still extremely early. Ethereum's network effects will take at least half a decade to erode, IMO.

But I have no problem seeing things on 5-30 year time horizons. You gotta if you understand crypto and how it's going to revolutionize the world.
nhill
Member
Tue Aug 24 14:54:01
Bought ETH @ 3218
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Tue Aug 24 15:01:35
Well, I am not qualified to question the things you are saying. I don't want to overplay this comparison since there are so many other more significant differences. One of the main criticisms of people still do this day is that Apple is overpriced. The thing is, it is also objectively true. You can get a much quicker and cheaper computer than a Mac. A technically superior machine :)


nhill
Member
Tue Aug 24 15:21:25
Right, but you also get intangibles with Apple products, such as AppleCare+, and a build quality and design that is unmatched in the laptop industry.

Don't get me wrong, the Apple cult has definitely been a huge driver. But the high build quality, support system, and design aesthetics is what I like about them and keeps their clientele satisfied. The fundamentals, if you will. :)

I'm typing this to you on an M1 MacBook Pro, and you literally *can't* get a better laptop than this for my uses. The M1 processor (Apple only tech) allows me to code without a power cable for the first time in my life. My last MacBook Pro would die within an hour, this one can last like 4-5 hours of coding. (I built a Manjaro Linux desktop box for my desktop computer, but use Apple laptops)

But yeah, the analogy does break down at some point when comparing computer builds to crypto blockchains.

My point, though, is that Cardano has zero advantages. Unlike Apple that has novel tech (like the M1 processor and TouchBar, etc.), Cardano has, quite literally, nothing in its favor, lol.
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Wed Aug 25 03:06:10
Well I'm not gonna argue with you, because I would only be arguing with other people words :) I have not given this stuff enough consideration, but I will try to do it holistically. I think as you say that tech isn't everything and my general sentiment is that, it is actually unlikely that the dominant protocol of the future, will be the most excellent one technically. The brand is going to matter a lot and the fact that Cardano has branded itself as The Academically peer reviewed protocol and focusing on emerging markets(Ethiopia is a big one), makes it unique. But those things only have value, if people value those things, social sentiment and stuff. I think the academic connection will carry a lot of weight with institutional actors and the emerging market with people who value social justice and equity. That makes me think ADA has a lot of potential, that the product is more than the sum total of the technical aspect.

But the margin of error for the things we say are high, this is very early in the gold rush :) how many generation in are we?
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Wed Aug 25 05:02:57
Don't even believe me when I start a post with "I won't argue with you", because the next sentence will be me arguing with you. hahah :)

I respect your opinion on this, enough that I am aware that it makes me extra critical reading about Ada. I mean you are right, Solana is technically superior, by a lot. But when will those things become an issue? ADA already is better than ETH on the specs and ETH is supporting a huge network. Besides all these protocols are being improved and evolve. My point is SOL having these wonderful specs, now, maybe isn't the race that needs to be won, now. I understand one does not diminish the importance of network scalability and performance, but these things can be improved further down the line? Even without ADA just consider them as honest general question about this space.

I guess my thought boils down to, what does the process look like for building the next financial platform that will revolutionize the world. It can't be garbage tech I agree. Is it really garbage though? Be fair! :)
nhill
Member
Wed Aug 25 17:13:38
> Is it really garbage though? Be fair! :)

It's hard to say how good Cardano is because it still hasn't been released as a dApp platform. Right now all you can do is send and receive. The code for the upcoming smart contract release is messy and verbose. We'll see how it works in the wild.

Sam Bankman-Fried backs Solana so it has a cult leader of its own + the tech to back it up. :)

But $ADA is the hype train to ride for now. They conveniently don't have a product so it's in the infinite hype stage. Good time to swing trade, and I know a bunch of traders online that are all over it. But, being traders, they will almost certainly sell before or shortly after the mainnet release.

Having better specs as underlying technical infrastructure for a whole new digital fabric is more important than you think.

Brand is good for investing and community, but actually using and building on top of it? So few people actually use these blockchains (even big projects only have 10,000-30,000 users), and those that do are highly proficient early adopters from a technical standpoint.

The other thing Solana has going for it is their Smart Contracts are built in Rust, a great programming language. Cardano went their own route and made a new language calls Marlowe, but it can be embedded in Haskell & JavaScript.

If you surveyed developers, I'm 90% sure Rust would be the preference out of the three. Although Marlowe does have a custom visual editor that makes it appeal to non-programmers, so it could obtain traction that way (skeptical, as I've seen these types of promises, e.g. the NoCode movement, fall flat over and over again).

In the end, both Solana and Cardano are good trades. Lot of momentum behind them at the moment. Long term, I see Solana surpassing Cardano. It has a year's head start and technical superiority, but we'll see!
nhill
Member
Wed Aug 25 18:32:56
All that said, there's plenty of room in the market for both projects!

I'm elaborating some of the risks that made me decide against Cardano for the time being. I do have a bias against Cardano mainly because Charles Hoskinson is leading the project, and I've researched him heavily and don't think he's the sharpest knife in the drawer.

I don't want to see the ugly crash if they don't live up to promise. But, if they do live up to it, perhaps it'll be more of a pullback and continuation.

One of the advantages Cardano has is we don't have any real numbers demonstrating how it works in a production capacity (as it isn't in production yet). So, the sky's the limit for now!
nhill
Member
Wed Aug 25 23:36:15
Buying more ETH @ 3152, avg price 3184
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Thu Aug 26 04:59:58
Well nhill, I trust you in this space. You are honest, but perhaps most importantly don't carry a big ego. You explain to the best of your ability, openly declare bias and always hedge what you are saying. Like a true investor! ;)

I will have a speculative position in SOL for the same amount as my ADA. Now is probably not a great time since the great retracement seems to have started (?!), even though on the given time horizon it probably will not matter. I will wait for it to bottom out I guess.
nhill
Member
Thu Aug 26 11:41:38
Thanks, good to hear! I hope I'm wrong about Cardano but glad you have a hedge in place. If Cardano faceplants, $SOL will go to the moon. If Cardano succeeds, $SOL will also go up with it (at a slower rate), because it demonstrates the viability of alternative L1 chains w/ smart contracts.

So it's a good choice! $SOL is actually doing pretty good today, too. Good timing :)
nhill
Member
Thu Aug 26 11:46:49
I hope this is a big retracement. Even though I have a long trade on Ethereum, the a bull case is a retracement to around $2900 and see an influx of new money from there to push us above $3500.

There's not enough demand right now around $3400 to push us much further, we need to entice new buyers. :)

But I'm keeping my $3184 trade on for now. Tired of getting burned missing unexpected pumps, so I locked in the short side profit and flipped long.
nhill
Member
Fri Aug 27 01:35:37
How's that $SOL working out for ya? ;)
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Fri Aug 27 04:06:38
Haha, yea I saw that yesterday, you know how lucky I was buying at 69 (lucky number)! Already covering the poor performance of ADA :))))

Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Fri Aug 27 11:00:19
Today was Adas turn while SOL held it's ground. SWEET BABY JESUS I'M RICH-ER! Doesn't sounds as powerful when you say it like that. I know I know, easy come easy go, this dam retarcement just wont happen.

The financial service market is about 20 trillion USD in value. Do you have any idea how much of that could potentially migrate over to the blockchain?
nhill
Member
Fri Aug 27 14:34:38
Selling ETH @ 3231, profit +1.4%
nhill
Member
Fri Aug 27 14:35:48
"Haha, yea I saw that yesterday, you know how lucky I was buying at 69 (lucky number)! Already covering the poor performance of ADA :))))"

Awesome!

"The financial service market is about 20 trillion USD in value. Do you have any idea how much of that could potentially migrate over to the blockchain?"

Anything the runs on code in the current financial service market can be migrated to the blockchain.
nhill
Member
Fri Aug 27 16:27:10
Shorting 3280
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Fri Aug 27 16:49:18
"Anything the runs on code in the current financial service market can be migrated to the blockchain."

How much money is that do you think?
nhill
Member
Fri Aug 27 17:12:59
A quadrillion or more. It's hard to estimate these things, but derivative contracts alone could have nearly a quadrillion dollars worth of total value locked.

Derivatives are already migrating to the blockchain, slowly.

Then you consider things like the stock market and, perhaps, the real estate market (through non-fungible tokens proving ownership) migrating to crypto, you can easily hit a quadrillion dollars.

That's about 500x up from here. Still early.

But projects will come and go. The majority of these early projects will probably go to $0. That's why I put a lot of research into things before diving into them, and always diversify through many projects at one.
nhill
Member
Sat Aug 28 14:36:00
Closing @ 3224

Profit +1.7%
nhill
Member
Sat Aug 28 14:37:02
Sol over Ada still looking pretty good here. But the big winner today has been my Raydium I tied up in a SOL-RAY LP. Up 37% :o
nhill
Member
Sat Aug 28 14:52:23
Shorting 3230. Still not much demand at these levels.
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Sat Aug 28 16:17:23
Nice! I am slowly diversifying my stuff here to let this ride on a longer time frame. And rehabilitating from this summer of day trading ;-)
nhill
Member
Sat Aug 28 20:24:51
Good stuff!

Shorting $3280 again.
nhill
Member
Sat Aug 28 22:05:34
Closing 3230, +0.7%
nhill
Member
Sat Aug 28 23:12:51
Buying 3169
nhill
Member
Sun Aug 29 01:57:20
9 profitable trades in a row during chop! Ethereum has barely moved but I've book about +30% this month.

http://uto...hread=88443&time=1628634454160

Starting to get a feel for the market, but the structure can change on a dime. No guarantees on future calls. :)
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Sun Aug 29 08:38:47
9 strike combo, never gets old :)

I decided to cash out earlier from Ada and sol. 6% and 34%. Hoping to get back in at a discount!
nhill
Member
Sun Aug 29 14:30:08
Closing 3222, profit 1.6%

10 strike combo now ;)

Good job booking those gains. Things definitely look like they are losing steam here. I wouldn't be surprised to see SOL and ADA make at least 1 more big pump.
nhill
Member
Sun Aug 29 19:05:45
Buying 3224, looks like it's holding up here.
nhill
Member
Sun Aug 29 20:43:18
BTW if you're looking for the next $SOL, IMO it's $FTM. Can get it for under $1 right now, I expect it to be $10+ by the end of next year. I recommended it here at $0.25, and it's up to $0.62. Don't sleep on these! ;) I put a lot of research into the L1 chains, and $SOL & FTM are my favorites. I think $SOL is better tech-wise, but plenty of room for $FTM.
nhill
Member
Sun Aug 29 23:37:42
Oh hey, look at that. It's at $0.75 now. lol
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Mon Aug 30 05:02:48
Right FTM is on my list of thing to read about :)

Also RAY that you mentioned. I am loitering the crypto market right now, since I do not have the time to actively trade and manage to money, I am all stable coin atm. Waiting for the right entry, then I am going to buy RAY and FTM, SOL and ADA. It probably doesn’t matter in the long run, but if there is a good chance for retracement, then why not buy cheaper :) that is the theory!

Here are 4 that I want to looking into, glad to hear your thoughts if you have the time.

AR
BAND
REN
LUNA

The 3 first one are from my uncles cryptosphere, the last one LUNA/TERRA, I admit, I just liked the name :P and put there on the to read list. It might be a total shitcoin for all I know.
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Mon Aug 30 10:10:48
FTM is going crazy today. Grats :)
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Mon Aug 30 10:59:17
I was lucky and managed to catch some of that FTM and RAY momentum :) pretty sweet couple of trades.

FTM buy 0,8437
Sell 0,873
+3,4%

Buy again 0,8702
sell 0,88
+1.1%

RAY buy 11,688
Sell 12
+2,6%

In about 30 minutes! When lady luck smiles at you with some momentum, you gonna catch it and ride that baby. That is all the "time in market" I can stomach. In and out like a Ninja!
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Mon Aug 30 11:09:38
The red trade of this session:
SOL
Buy 106,29
Sell 105

-1,2%
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Mon Aug 30 13:55:34
Bought SOL 109,88

It's a disease.
nhill
Member
Mon Aug 30 14:06:19
Haha. Nice! Selling Ethereum at 3340.

11 in a row on here! What a great time.
nhill
Member
Mon Aug 30 14:08:06
+3.6% on that trade.

FTM has pumped so hard it’s crazy. What do I do with all this money lol. I was expecting $1 by end of year but looks like it might be by end of week!
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Mon Aug 30 14:34:46
You use it to make MOAR! :)

I closed SOL as it was going down for 1.7%. Should have gone home earlier!


Today was awesome, hope we get another one >:)
nhill
Member
Mon Aug 30 14:50:44
Haha, well I'm going to continue farming my $FTM. I bet it'll be up to $10 by end of next year and it's farming a yield, so I have no reason to touch it.

Yes, today was the best day I've had in crypto since the crash! Beautiful day. $SOL to the moon, $FTM to the moon, $RAY not far behind.

My only big loser was my $AVAX-$XAVA experiment, but I had a fraction of my total DeFi money over there. Just experimenting with the Avalanche chain.

Trading Performance June 29th-Aug 30th:

BTC: +36.7%
nhill: +75.5%
S&P 500: +5.6%
nhill
Member
Mon Aug 30 15:12:54
Shorting 3343...might be getting greedy here, but that was an epic pump and I expect some sort of pullback.
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