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Utopia Talk / Politics / Cryptocurrency Corner
nhill
Member
Fri Aug 06 00:46:39
Looks like the infrastructure bill is more likely to pass with the crypto amendment:
http://twitter.com/JStein_WaPo/status/1423461677589270535

I'm sure we'll see a temporary selloff if it passes as is. But overall, it'll be a positive move for cryptocurrency if it passes. I'm rooting for it. If it passes, this is a stepping stone to legitimize cryptocurrency. If it doesn't pass, the price will pump. It's a win-win scenario from me as I'm up over 5% on my Ethereum trend trade, but overall I'd rather lose money and see legitimacy solidified. Only trade with 1-6% of crypto anyways. And most my money is invested in the stock market.

As for trading:
I am out of my day trades. I'm waiting for the infrastructure news before I scalp a day trade. I have a trend trade on $ETH right now from $2631.

Trading Performance June 29th-July 21nd:

BTC: +13.9%
nhill: +8.4%
S&P 500: +3.2%

Bitcoin is beating me because of that massive pump that liquidated shorts. I was short at the time, but I don't leverage. Didn't get liquidated. But it fucked up my performance temporarily vs $BTC. Still beating the S&P 500. >:)

I'll get it back.
nhill
Member
Fri Aug 06 00:47:00
Previous thread: http://uto...hread=88424&time=1628212999738
nhill
Member
Fri Aug 06 00:52:55
All my trades are timestamped and documented. Feel free to audit them.

My crypto portfolio that I posted here:
http://uto...hread=88360&time=1626794705376

Is up +33% currently from time of posting. BTC is up +22% from time of posting.

This is the portfolio:

30% $ETH
15% $BTC
10% $LINK
10% $SOL
10% $MATIC
5% $CRV
2% $1INCH
2% $BNT
2% $ICP
2% $KAVA
2% $KNC
2% $LRC
2% $NEAR
2% $REN
2% $UMA
2% $ZRX

If someone wants to make diversified low risk long term gains without trading, this is a good choice. Not financial advice, merely educational. The more important part is understanding why I composed it this way:

$ETH: Despite BSC, Polygon, and other chain competition it has ~6x more quality projects than both combined.
$BTC: Hedge. Slow, boring, but the most guaranteed.
$LINK: Critical to all things.
$SOL: Best $ETH competitor.
$MATIC: Best $ETH leverager.
$CRV: Most solid DeFi project.

The rest are a mix of novel use cases with decent tokenomics.

You have to diversify the altcoins. Some will go to zero, some will go up 10-50X. It's a game of extraordinary outcomes.

BTW: At this point I'm replacing $SOL with SFTM. Fantom is the better competitor.
nhill
Member
Fri Aug 06 00:53:08
$FTM, that is.
Habebe
Member
Fri Aug 06 01:24:40
My portfolio is 100% Blockbuster video, Waiting for a comeback then Doge to the moon nigga!
Habebe
Member
Fri Aug 06 01:24:53
My portfolio is 100% Blockbuster video, Waiting for a comeback then Doge to the moon nigga!
nhill
Member
Fri Aug 06 01:27:40
May Godness have mercy on your soul.
Habebe
Member
Fri Aug 06 02:04:53
Fun fact, therenis still a blockbuster video, the last one in Washington State somewhere.

They've turned it into a niche nostalgia store with all the movie memorobillia from the previous stores/what they've collected.Probably make a great stop on a road trip.

Seen it on cinnemassacre with Jamea Rolfe (best known as the angry video game nerd)
Habebe
Member
Fri Aug 06 02:08:58
Correction, its in Bend Oregon.
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Fri Aug 06 03:25:01
Remember that the analog eras closest thing to a streaming service was, mailing DVD’s to your physical mailbox. Then when you were done with them you sent them back.

Those were truly dark days.
nhill
Member
Fri Aug 06 13:25:48
Shorting BTC @ 42804
nhill
Member
Fri Aug 06 13:28:10
> Remember that the analog eras closest thing to a streaming service was, mailing DVD’s to your physical mailbox. Then when you were done with them you sent them back.

I've been getting exclusively digital movies since 2005. I'd order them from Netflix and then download to watch. Return them right away. Best of both worlds.

If it's really good, you know, something like Blade Runner, I'll purchase it. I own Blade Runner on DVD, HD-DVD, Bluray, and Bluray 4K. :)
nhill
Member
Fri Aug 06 13:31:24
I have $42800ish as strong resistance here. But this is an epic pump, so I'm going to be cautious and stop out early. This is a day trade hedge.
nhill
Member
Fri Aug 06 13:35:58
http://i.imgur.com/JZCBDH7.png

^trading plan. Can see my stop loss and take profit zones.
Habebe
Member
Fri Aug 06 13:53:51
Nimatzo, I used gamefly back in the day. Also, Blockbuster online did let you order movies online with a subscription, BUT you could return them in person and pick out a "free" replacement on site.
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Fri Aug 06 13:56:26
Right, but for ETH the road to 3k looks wide open. We need another decent pump and we are gonna get there. As you said yesterday :) I have a long position from 2773 that I am looking to close.
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Fri Aug 06 13:58:26
Where is chuck? His ETH position is going to rise from the dead now :)
nhill
Member
Fri Aug 06 14:16:03
My Ethereum trend trade it up 11.2%. Going to let this baby fly.

We’re coming for you Chuck!
nhill
Member
Fri Aug 06 22:41:57
Almost stopped out on my Bitcoin trade :o

Came within 6 dollars. Probably will get stopped out but that’s part of the game. My risk was hedged. :)
nhill
Member
Fri Aug 06 22:52:46
Yup! Stopped out for 1.32% loss. May your wins always be bigger than your losses.
nhill
Member
Fri Aug 06 23:56:15
Shiiit. Looks like I got stop hunted. :)
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Sat Aug 07 05:33:18
Indeed. I close my trade at 3042.

I will past this in from the last thread, so we don’t forget, I am really interested in how to go about this more seriously and learn:


”Trade: 0-72 hours (on avg).
Trend: 3-14 days (on avg).
Tail: 14+ days.

More to come. Trying to introduce techniques slowly.
***

Another key to successful trading is learning how to be long and short at the same time with different allocations.

It seems counterintuitive, but in reality your hedging risk on different time frames and reducing the overall volatility on your portfolio.

It's also an effective mental model to prevent panic selling or buying. As your tail trades, you make extremely rarely. Your trend trades are infrequent. Your day trades are frequent.

Having different accounts for each also helps. I use a different wallet for each time frame.”
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Sat Aug 07 05:37:58
The bill is a bit daft in its’ details. On the other hand, what is are the marlet consequences of legislation that can’t be complied with? I have trouble imagining, uncertainty is always bad. But of you are certain it will be toothless? What are they gonna do, force wallet developers under threat of fines to spy on wallets?
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Sat Aug 07 05:59:46
Nhill
Also, what defi strat/service are you using on the Binance chain?
nhill
Member
Sat Aug 07 13:00:20
> Also, what defi strat/service are you using on the Binance chain?

I'm using beefy.finance to stake $CAKE and $XED.

$CAKE is the PancakeSwap token. PancakeSwap is a solid project doing a lot of fun novel things, like lotteries, NFTs, and prediction markets.

Based on their pace of development, I'm sure they will keep coming up novel and fun ways to use the $CAKE token.

That said, it's my smallest DeFi allocation, because it's a farm token. You can lock up your crypto and earn it on their syrup farms. Therefore, it's an inflationary token that is dependent on future development for significant price appreaciation.

The other one is the $XED/$BNB liquidity provider pool. Basically I'm providing liquidity for people to exchange $XED and $BNB and obtaining transactions fees in return.

I chose $XED because it's a low market cap NFT project that is targeting gaming. Right now you can play others in CS:GO for crypto money, and join various ladders.

"Play against friends for real money

Like a poker night - double the fun by playing for real money. Each player puts credits (minimum $0.5) in a pool which will be distributed to the winners. Seriously fun!"

It's an extremely early stage project, so I don't have a huge stake (but twice as much as $CAKE). Find more details here:

http://www.exeedme.com/
nhill
Member
Sat Aug 07 13:08:46
> The bill is a bit daft in its’ details. On the other hand, what is are the marlet consequences of legislation that can’t be complied with? I have trouble imagining, uncertainty is always bad. But of you are certain it will be toothless? What are they gonna do, force wallet developers under threat of fines to spy on wallets?

In the end, it'll be like most tax laws in the United States. Some people will voluntarily comply due to fear of an extensive audit, but most people making under ~$300,000 won't care unless their accountant insists. Many of these things are going to be simply impossible to track. If I mine crypto into my wallet that I've never transacted with anyone, then there's no way they could find it in an audit.

Tax laws in the USA primarily reward accountants which have a whole slew of new courses and such to take if this passes, and punishes people that are either paranoid (want to leave no possibility of failing an audit) or honest.

This one is no different. A lot of people will voluntarily follow the letter of the law for peace of mind, but the vast majority will not be enforced due to the complexity.

In the end, only exchange transactions will be meaningfully enforced. Everything else will be voluntary.
nhill
Member
Sat Aug 07 13:17:26
> I will past this in from the last thread, so we don’t forget, I am really interested in how to go about this more seriously and learn:

Here's how it's playing out for me right now. I didn't signal these as tail and trend trades here. I did signal ETH at $1750 before I started going fractal. But I never mentioned my $FTM trade. Currently:

Tail Trade: $ETH $1750.
Trend Trade: $FTM $0.24.
Day Trade: None.

I put a trailing stop on the tail trade. No stop on trend (manually managed to avoid stop hunters). Stop loss on day trade.

Once you get used to this paradigm you can start to manage risk multidimensionally. Like the rally yesterday, I did a Bitcoin day trade short to cap off my gains and hedge a downturn. Using this technique I can also close my positions when I go to bed without fully closing them. Very useful if you want to do something like staking, and here's why:

Say I have $20,000 worth of $ETH staked at 50% APY. $ETH goes up $200 in price and I don't want to lose those gains. But I also don't want to unstake and lose the yield. Wat do? Well I can short $30,000 worth of Bitcoin.

I didn't sell my Ethereum, but I hedged my exposure to the downside and I can go to sleep. $ETH/$BTC is less volatile and generally leans $ETH.

So I can go to sleep with my staked Ethereum and if the price crashes I can use the money I made on my short Bitcoin position to increase my Ethereum stake.

It's almost impossible to lose with this strategy.
nhill
Member
Sat Aug 07 13:27:10
The only way I could lose with that strategy is if Ethereum crashed but not Bitcoin. But if you look at the liquidity for Ethereum most of it comes from Bitcoin. Therefore, they move in concert. Most of the liquidity for Bitcoin comes from stablecoins. That's why people say Bitcoin defines the trends, and Ethereum/Alts follow it. It's true from a liquidity standpoint. Alts get their liquidity from Ethereum usually. Ethereum gets its liquidity from Bitcoin. Bitcoin from USD.

That essentially makes Ethereum a leveraged Bitcoin position, and alts an even higher leverage.

That explains all the price action you saw in the crash. $BTC went down the least because its liquidity is tied to USD. Ethereum went down a bit more, because its liquidity is tied to Bitcoin (which went down). Alts went down the most, because their liquidity is tied to Ethereum.

So it ends up being a cascade effect.

Generally, though, the macro trends favor Ethereum over Bitcoin. Will Ethereum ever stand on its own, tied to USD? That's the important question to ask. If Ethereum switches to getting its primary liquidity from the dollar, its price will explode. Of course, that switch itself would be gradual.

This is another reason why I think Bitcoin is a bad long-term investment vs Ethereum. It has nothing but downside, and Ethereum has nothing but upside (underdog effect).
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Sat Aug 07 15:09:48
With that hedging startegy, why not short ETH directly? They move in concert, but ETH is more volatile, wouldn’t that match the eventual loss from liquidation better than BTC?
nhill
Member
Sat Aug 07 15:24:42
You have to consider how risky it is. Because you can see it as a leveraged Bitcoin position, you risk losing bigger if the market moves unexpectedly.

I like to hedge with lower vol instruments, because, overall, I'm more confident in the market going up than down.

There's no right answers. It comes down to your risk tolerance and overall strategy. The key is understanding the general principles and tailoring your own methods.
nhill
Member
Sat Aug 07 15:58:48
Shorting BTC @ 43900
nhill
Member
Sat Aug 07 16:05:58
Oops, didn't realize the price was delayed. Been messing with coinalyze that apparently has a delay compared to TradingView. It said 43900, but if you actually look at when I posted it was higher. 43978 was the fill price in my order book.
nhill
Member
Sat Aug 07 16:17:18
Not feeling good about this one. Close @ 44300
nhill
Member
Sun Aug 08 13:00:19
Buying ETH @ 2988
nhill
Member
Sun Aug 08 13:00:58
(TF: Trade)
Habebe
Member
Sun Aug 08 13:30:42
2988 seems at the high end of Eth, doesnt it?
nhill
Member
Sun Aug 08 13:42:12
Depends on your time frame. It was $3189 last night, we $2988 was the support level from the last rally.

As I said above, I'm doing trades on three different time frames now.

I still have my Trend trade (3-14 days) open on Eth from $2631.

This one is a day trade from $2988. I think we can pump back up a few percent from here and take a scalp.

But I would not be a long term investor at this price. My last long-term purchase was $ETH at $1750 which I signaled here weeks ago.
nhill
Member
Sun Aug 08 13:44:54
Since this is a day trade, I'll have a tight stop loss on it. I'm will to book a quick loss when scalping. I'm usually 50/50 on scalps, but I make sure my wins are, on average, bigger than my losses.
nhill
Member
Sun Aug 08 14:19:05
Buying again @ $2950
nhill
Member
Sun Aug 08 14:35:09
Closing @ 3000
nhill
Member
Sun Aug 08 15:10:08
+1.1% profit on that one. Will do it again around $2950 if we get there.
nhill
Member
Sun Aug 08 19:34:58
Buying ETH @ $2954
nhill
Member
Sun Aug 08 20:03:08
Shorting BTC @ $43104
nhill
Member
Mon Aug 09 00:07:12
Shorting again @ 43763
nhill
Member
Mon Aug 09 00:08:04
Closing ETH @ 2963
nhill
Member
Mon Aug 09 00:08:37
There's some multidimensional trading for ya. Let's see how this rides now.
nhill
Member
Mon Aug 09 00:19:35
I'm short from 43433 on BTC, and going to sleep. I have a trend trade on Ethereum from $2631.

S/L 44018
TP 42787
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Mon Aug 09 05:50:41
I spoke some with my crypto uncle this weekend. He has a way to high apetite for risk, especially for his age, he is almost 50. He is all in, "this can not fail" and unfortunately unaware that the people he is listening to, can afford exposure and risks that he can not. This BTC whale allegedly has 150 000 BTCs, taken at face value, he probably has plenty of assets in the physical world, that if BTC for some reason went to zero, he would be fine.

Fortunately his wife is a very intelligent woman and she acts as a break on the insanity. Though I also told her, my uncle could very well stand here in 10 years time and say, I FUCKING TOLD YOU SO DIDN'T I! What he lacks in brains he makes up for in energy and charisma :)



Nhill
Maybe there is something I do not get about the ETH question I asked. In that scenario, the idea is that the short position, should it come in to play, will cover the liquidation costs. We can safely assume that BTC will not move as much as ETH either way. Perhaps there are is some fundamental thing I am not seeing here. Instinctively I want to say I don't want to be exposed to the same crypto, but then again they move in concert, we are actually betting on it with that strategy. I can't explain the instinct. What would be an unexpected move in this scenario (ETH collateral ETH short) that would carry more risk?



I did some bad trades yesterday, the last one:
in 3057, patience and luck has rectified yesterdays mistakes, I was expecting us to test 3100 range again, but yesterday. I shouldn't cry over missing out of 2900, but I will anyways :,,(
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Mon Aug 09 06:43:52
I am sorry for all these question, but remember, it is your own fault :). But also, a receipt that the things you say are validated, either as the block chain settles transaction at new prices or that I read up else where.

Trade: 0-72 hours (on avg).
Trend: 3-14 days (on avg).
Tail: 14+ days.

Are the same indicators applicable to each of these?
nhill
Member
Mon Aug 09 07:31:28
Closed at 44018
nhill
Member
Mon Aug 09 07:33:45
I’m not quite up yet for the day, just letting the dogs out. But I’ll address those questions soon.
nhill
Member
Mon Aug 09 11:40:48
Nim

You're thinking about this properly. Hedging staked ETH with a short ETH position would work properly also.

The reason I like to short with lower vol instruments like Bitcoin is because I like to have a tight stop loss on my shorts.

If I have a 1.2% S/L on my ETH short, it's more likely to get stopped out by stop hunters than a 1.2% S/L short on Bitcoin.

So the solution to prevent this? Well I could account for the volatility and set a 1.5% S/L when shorting Ethereum instead. But this means each time I get stopped out I lose more, then. And because my general thesis is that it's more likely to go up over time, I feel like those losses would accumulate.

I don't mind being stopped out on my shorts at all. It's capping my risk so it served its purpose.

Let's talk more about being stopped out, as that's the important part here.
Losing a few thousand dollars on a short position (which would be offset by my Ethereum long position, because Ethereum is mostly leveraged Bitcoin) is like paying an insurance premium against a downturn.

Now, a lot of this is stylistic and no right answers. Long ETH Futures / Short Spot is another technique you could do for a similar style but ETH-only. But I don't trade on centralized exchanges so that's not an option for me.
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Mon Aug 09 15:34:22
So are you always running a short position on BTC as a hedge for your defi collateral as insurance?

I guess with Defi based on the APY you could calculate whatever premium you think you need to pay to make money, but also hedge your bet. I understand the concept, trying to figure out in practice how it is done.
nhill
Member
Mon Aug 09 15:59:53
Buying ETH @ 3070

It's a bull market until proven otherwise.
nhill
Member
Mon Aug 09 16:02:31
> So are you always running a short position on BTC as a hedge for your defi collateral as insurance?

I'm usually running a small short position, but often put in a bigger position after a big rally to hedge the downside.

And yes, you can calculate the APY therefore risk premium for the protection. So basically you can make it so you probably won't gain much money on the downside, but you can take the profits from the short position and fill up the DeFi allocation. Like refueling. Otherwise you just eat the premium.
nhill
Member
Mon Aug 09 16:13:34
Actual trading like I'm signaling here isn't very important to me. Just doing it for fun. The real frontier in crypto is DeFi. I'm all over that shit.

Got stakes in Fantom, Heco, Solana, Polygon, Ethereum, Optimism, BSC, Ergo, and more to come...there's one blockchain (Dero) in particular that I'm anticipating it exploding soon, and is up over 100% since I started using it 30 days ago.
nhill
Member
Mon Aug 09 16:16:46
Not that I care about the price appreciation. It's a tangentially metric for validation in having an eye to pick good projects. The benefits of being on the cutting edge is you can sift through the new projects pretty quickly.

The downsides is hacks and rugs are common, so it's not for the faint of heart, and I can't imagine being able to do it safely without being able to read code. I'm sure people do it, but I've been saved by rugs & hacks by seeing sloppy code and avoiding it.

Although I have a project get hacked two weeks ago for the first time. It was audited and looked like good code, but hacked nonetheless. I need to learn from that mistake and see what I missed there.
nhill
Member
Mon Aug 09 16:43:12
"Trade: 0-72 hours (on avg).
Trend: 3-14 days (on avg).
Tail: 14+ days.

Are the same indicators applicable to each of these?"

Well, they are different time frames, so I would say that the timeframe matters more than the indicators. To me, outside of macro factors, the only thing that matters when I make a trade is price, volume, and volatility.

Price includes various support and resistance levels to me. But those s/r levels guide my position entry times. As in, I'll take profits as we hit a higher level, and load up when we hit a lower one (in a bull market). I picture it in my head as a train letting off some steam to cool down the engine, and then stoking the heat again. :)

Some indicators may help me read price, volume, and volatility better (e.g. Bollinger Bands), but I try to not focus on the indicators as much as what they are saying about price, volume, and volatility.
nhill
Member
Mon Aug 09 16:45:27
Selling ETH here @ 3110
+1.3% profit

Still have an open trend trade from $2631 which is up 18.2% now.
nhill
Member
Mon Aug 09 16:46:25
Now the short premium I paid last night is balanced out. -1.3% shorting it last night. +1.3% doing a day trade long today. The world is in balance again!
nhill
Member
Mon Aug 09 16:49:56
"OsamaIsDaWorstPresid
Member Fri Jul 16 11:45:39
"ICP: $34.76" rofl ure buyin dat crap aftar it crashid from leik 500 rofllllll"

$ICP is now at $56.58. Up 62% since I posted it.

You can see why people like Osama stay poor. They simply want to hate on things while life passes them buy and their money grows at a snail pace.
nhill
Member
Mon Aug 09 16:52:36
Oh $ICP is actually $63 now. My chart wasn't fully loaded. So it's up 81% since I "stupidly" said it was a good investment.

Guess stupid makes you stupid rich. ;)
nhill
Member
Mon Aug 09 17:10:47
Shorting BTC @ 43762
nhill
Member
Mon Aug 09 17:11:36
45762, I mean.
nhill
Member
Mon Aug 09 17:12:40
S/L 46134
T/P 45077
nhill
Member
Mon Aug 09 17:59:59
Stopped @ 46134
nhill
Member
Mon Aug 09 19:01:59
Shorting @ 46203

One of these days...
nhill
Member
Mon Aug 09 19:02:50
I'm not revealing my S/L here ~.~
nhill
Member
Mon Aug 09 19:07:23
Stopped @ 46500

This baby just keeps pumping!
nhill
Member
Mon Aug 09 19:18:18
Buying ETH @ 3148
nhill
Member
Mon Aug 09 19:28:46
Closing @ 3158. Open interest is cratering, I'm not sure where this will move now.
nhill
Member
Mon Aug 09 22:33:55
Buying ETH @ $3111
nhill
Member
Mon Aug 09 22:44:46
S/L 3093
T/P 3160
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Tue Aug 10 08:38:07
I fucking knew it, but didn’t have the balls to hold for longer.

Today’s trade
In 3115
Out 3153


Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Tue Aug 10 08:39:37
Do you see a huge retracement before 4k?
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Tue Aug 10 08:49:11
3200 is near the 100% milestone from 1650. So maybe my question is about to answer itself.
nhill
Member
Tue Aug 10 09:00:22
Closing @ 3165
nhill
Member
Tue Aug 10 09:11:34
I wasn't at my computer for $3200 this morning, would have been nice to book a bigger gain.

Nim

This will come down to Earth eventually. My current projection is somewhere around the $2600-$2900 range. That would be a healthy correction and allow some big entries. I'm sure a lot of liquidity is waiting for a good entry.

But I don't see any reason for it to happen soon.

People are still net short on this rally, and they have been since August 5th (I found a new tool, coinalyze, that helps you see this). IMO, we need more FOMO to be triggered & people to go net long before the correction can happen. The whales like to bait in liquidity with a nice bull trap before really dumping.
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Tue Aug 10 09:28:24
Coinalyze, I will have to look at that. This is fun way beyond what I had imagined, addicting. Funny you should say FOMO, because I have been suffering from this for over a month :)

What does it mean ”Net short” in some more detail: People are still hesitant and putting most/alot of the money on this going bearish?

nhill
Member
Tue Aug 10 09:52:35
Buying ETH @ 3124
nhill
Member
Tue Aug 10 10:14:39
Closing 3149
nhill
Member
Tue Aug 10 10:21:49
Nim

http://coinalyze.net/snapshot/JAXMK7Kr

Here's an example of the charts I look at on Coinalyze.

Actually, I hadn't checked it today, but it looks like people are now longing.

I think a correction is due.

Notice the Long/Short accounts global ratio here. The ratio flipped long this morning. So people are starting to get infected with FOMO.

Now, the worst thing we can do is talk in absolutes. The global long/short accounts ratio just means how many accounts are long/short, but not the amount of money in them. A $10 account is the same as a $10,000,000 one, so it's a manipulatable metric.

That's why I'm pairing it with those 4 other metrics, to get a more complete view. But again, nothing is absolute. To me, it looks like more people are longing. Open interest is increasing, as are margin contracts. That tells me people are longing for leverage.

We're ripe for a big wick to liquidate some longs today.
nhill
Member
Tue Aug 10 10:32:01
Closing my trend trade for 17.8% gain.

Open @ 2631
Close @ 3100
nhill
Member
Tue Aug 10 10:52:06
Small starter position (25%) short ETH from 3130.
nhill
Member
Tue Aug 10 11:26:39
Rounding it out at 3097.
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Tue Aug 10 11:28:16
I did some home work on those indicators. Very useful stuff.
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Tue Aug 10 12:15:53
I looked a bit more on those indicators on the daily chart for BTC.

Agg funding rate and long/short ratio are no where near what they have been, looking back all the way to december. They are not even where they were at this price a few months ago.

On the other hand, open interest is very high, far higher than every before, despite a drop in the recent days.

Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Tue Aug 10 14:05:02
Second trade
in 3075
out 3077

I got scared :( suddenly got the feeling we were going down, in flames!

Third trade of the day (waiting to close)

in 3095

Since I have the FOMOs badly and a total noob, I actively trace all my trades.
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Tue Aug 10 14:07:12
*3090
nhill
Member
Tue Aug 10 15:39:36
It's always good to hold yourself accountable like this. Win some / lose some, but you're more likely to learn from your mistakes when you share them publicly!

I'm hanging onto my short for now. There's a lot of FOMO I'm reading in the charts that I think will get flushed over the next few days.

My timeframe for this short is a trend trade (over 3 days). Although shorts always have a smaller leash so I may close it earlier. That's just how I'm thinking about it. I'll probably still do some long day trades as we ride the waves down (if all goes according to plan).
nhill
Member
Tue Aug 10 16:00:38
Nim

The biggest thing I'm seeing is that volume is down and open interest is down, but the price is going up.

That would happen if short sellers were covering their positions. So the buying we are seeing now may not be organic. It's not good to see open interest decrease as the price is going up. Regardless of the origin of the purchase (short cover or actual purchase), this means fewer and fewer buyers are entering the market.

I'm hanging onto my short until I see some real bullish signs. Looks like a dead cat bounce.
nhill
Member
Tue Aug 10 16:04:22
That said, the worst thing you can do as a trader is think you know what is going on from these metrics. They are all easily manipulated, so we can only go off what we think is most *probable* to happen.

If you can get the "most probable" nailed down, you can become profitable in the long run.

Even though I had a string of like 8 losses a couple weeks ago, I understand that's okay. Not changing my process because a coin happened to flip tails 8 times in a row.

Although I am adding new tools. I could have avoided being short when I was if I was using these, as you can see the conditions were ripe as hell for a short squeeze. I had no idea at the time.
nhill
Member
Tue Aug 10 16:04:38
Sometimes you eat the chart, and sometimes the chart eats you. ;)
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Tue Aug 10 16:17:22
Thank you jesus, it reached 3160, I'm good.

The reason I have not shared all my mistakes is because most of them were just stupid, like honestly. Most of my bad trades were on the app, not even using my noob "analysis" of the charts and impulsive. What is the next stage of FOMO? If there is one, it is an impulsive "oh shit I hope it's not too late!" And then of course, it was too late.

One thing though, I have only had those 4k's to trade with. It isn't 4k that is 1% of 400 000 Euros. So, my ability to lower average price, has been limited. Since a week I am only using 50% each trade, so I can have 1 shot at lowering. I have had to balance that out with patience and the conviction that we are in a bulls market.

I will share my more thought out mistakes from here on :) but to give you an idea, I am not near the comfort level of stop loss orders, because I have no one strategy I need to follow this manually. Right now, it is mostly based on the general trend, and the levels of resistance I plotted, with some aid of fib. rets. mostly to visualize the bands. With a healthy dose of risk aversion.

All in all I have slowly lost ETH buying power with those 4k Euros, but I guess this is to be expected in this kind of upward trend. If I am jumping in and out, of course I can't capitalize on every %. I am 31,7% plus right now in cash while ETHs value has risen 80-85% during the same period. So, that isn't great I feel, but what would have been good?

In light of the above, I see the benefit of going fractal as you called it and hedging and so on. It all quickly becomes overwhelming though. I probably always knew, but I better appreciate the fact that managing money is a job. The day trade, the trend, the tail, the DeFi services. A lot of knowledge and work goes into figuring those things out. But on the up side, it is very fun and I am learning and I can see I am making progress.
nhill
Member
Tue Aug 10 16:25:08
Shorting more ETH here at 3161
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Tue Aug 10 16:32:41
I forgot to mention one thing. You Nhill. I get information from you, even if that has been like 1% of what you are doing and sharing, you are correct more often than not and it has of course influenced my trading broadly. Copying trades does not work, things move too fast too often with Crypto. I have paid more attention to the bigger stuff and the tools to figure it out myself.

And sometimes I probably don't know that I made a mistake, or that the thing that I think is a mistake, wasn't a technical mistake, but just how it goes, a probable outcome that didn't go your way. I'm a level 1 Trader!
nhill
Member
Tue Aug 10 16:42:28
Thanks for the kind words. :)

It's a complicated craft and hard to articulate it all. Plus I'm learning new things each day, so I try to pepper things in here slowly either as I learn or things I learned a while ago.

Many people trade for decades and still are learning things. The important part is that you seem to enjoy it and are willing to learn. Once you get to the point of either being right >50% of the time, or making sure your wins are bigger than your losses even if still 50/50, then you are on your way to making consistent returns.

The goal is always increasing knowledge for me, even if paying a premium in the short term like I did getting rekt on the short squeeze to from $35,000-$48,000 a couple weeks ago.

Since then, I've been studying to figure out where I went wrong and that's how I landed on Coinalyze. It shows very clearly why the setup was ripe for a short squeeze and that I was taking on more risk than I thought.
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Tue Aug 10 17:17:17
Hey you remember that osama guy trolling you, as we hit the opportunity of a lifetime perhaps, ETH @ seb 1700 USD? Yea that didn't age well.

80% on the ETH I bought at 1780! Nhill upwards of 90%!! Nuclear bomb level pwnage right there. LOL

Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Tue Aug 10 17:17:56
seb=sub
nhill
Member
Tue Aug 10 17:27:34
Lmao, yup, and he said I was going to get rekt buying Internet Computer at $36. Now it's $71.

Osama == owned. Some people simply aren't going to make it to the next level, and will lament their way to the old folks home.

But, but, Ponzi Scheme! U don't understand the pricing of assets. I can sense their tears from the future already. :')

Number go up.
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