Utopia Talk / Politics / Begun the Curve wars have

Nimatzo iChihuaha	Sun Jan 02 12:41:16 http://uto...hread=89032&time=1641146809134
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Sun Jan 02 12:41:30 Nimatzo iChihuaha Sun Jan 02 12:40:31 I heard about the airdrops. I bridged over FTM yesterday and managed to buy some more :) Been saving jewel in the bank. About CRV, it has come and gone off my radar. How big are you going? As you know, I have some extra liquidity lying around now :P
nhill Member	Sun Jan 02 13:11:52 5% allocation for now! It's a blue chip DeFi, not a small cap, so I put more weight to it. My max position is usually around 10%, and I reserve that for L1s. But as we covered this past week, I'm fluid with it to capitalize on opportunities like $JEWEL. Waking up this morning with almost a million dollars paper profit on $JEWEL was a nice surprise. The nice thing about Curve is it's matured a lot, so the emissions are starting to put a lot of buying pressure on the token right when protocols want to buy it. Really nice design to the tokenomics.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Sun Jan 02 13:31:18 Ok ok. Thing is I had CRV on my buy list like in september, then it blew up and I though ok well that was that boat, "forgot" about it. No pussy footing around this time :) About Tarot, you view it as less degen? I know Harry Yeh openly promoted it on Tomb Discord and twitter, that has dismantled some skepticism for me.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Sun Jan 02 13:31:55 "Waking up this morning with almost a million dollars paper profit on $JEWEL was a nice surprise." I bet :)
nhill Member	Sun Jan 02 13:41:44 I'm okay with Tarot. They've been around for a while now, and are a fork (verified the code) from Impermax, and audited and well managed project. The only flag for me is that they are anon, but, sans a bug or backdoor, really the dev team can't do much other than crash the price of $TAROT by draining the protocol wallet of its liquidity. Since I'm not farming Tarot, I'm only lending CRV, I'm not exposed to that risk. Impermax has been out for over half a year without any problems and a 90 security score on CertiK: http://www.certik.com/projects/impermax That said, we already know audits guarantee nothing. :) I'd rate it a 6/10 for safety-- 5/10 being average in this case.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Sun Jan 02 13:52:56 I have opted for Beefy with my MIM, even as it is an autocompounder, but they have been around for a long time, but am putting Tshares on tarot. "we already know audits guarantee nothing." :,( I have gotten a "free" NFT out of that ordeal from Pod town.
nhill Member	Sun Jan 02 17:23:44 Yeah beefy is legit. They are one like 10 chains or something, pretty impressive. I actually found out about FTM initially when they added FTM support on beefy. My first FTM investment was the TOMB-FTM autocompounder on beefy a long time ago (pre-exploit). :')
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Mon Jan 03 05:36:03 Well, klima has shit the bed. Though I guess OHM did as well before it recovered. Given the unique underlying asset, strong social sentiment and Mark Cuban as an Advisor I can see a future bounce in the price once the protocol matures and they market more aggressively. This point there is no sense in selling. Lesson learned.
nhill Member	Mon Jan 03 11:41:07 Oh wow, yeah it did. Down to $200 now. :( I exited around $800 as I was trying to consolidate the amount of OHM forks I held. Didn't make much profit on it. I took a bit on the way up and the rebases helped, but I probably only made a few % overall. I think a lot of people are, like me, rotating out of the OHM forks for now. the buzz around projects like DeFi Kingdoms are vacuuming up the liquidity. For example, I ate my $WAGMI position early December for it. But that's kinda the point of the reserve currency, keeping it there until you spot an opportunity. Even though I don't think the reserve currency use case is going to be primary going forward, I still like the narrative. :) The way I see it is we have seen the first wave of the OHM forks, now it's time for a bunch of them to die and winners be crowned! Then I bet we'll experience a second wave of rotation. The only one I'm holding through is $VAL because it's trading below risk-free value.
LazyCommunist Member	Mon Jan 03 15:19:48 It's all a lie http://mob...log/status/1477634870167834625
nhill Member	Mon Jan 03 16:16:33 This guy's an idiot. They can still be sold, just not on OpenSea. Apparently he has no idea what the word decentralized even means, lol. Nothing OpenSea can do will prevent the sale or transfer of the NFT on the blockchain (the decentralized part).
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Mon Jan 03 18:38:49 Been burning the candle from both ends, ended up crashing in bed at 16.00 lol, woke up now after midnight. So... FTM -> moon ONE/JEWEL -> moon CRV -> Lift off Even Atom has shown signs of life lately. :) You probably know about this site, but just in case. It aggregates all your Defikingdom holdings. A user created it. http://kingdom.watch/ The "decopupling" narrative is alive again. Some even predict more of it for 2022. Who knows, but whoever is hodling BTC and ETH is have a very boring time right now :P
nhill Member	Tue Jan 04 00:49:05 Some more FA: http://moneywithcarter.substack.com/p/q1-2022-thesis "Been burning the candle from both ends, ended up crashing in bed at 16.00 lol, woke up now after midnight." Sounds familiar... :) I dig kingdom.watch for sure. That's how I track my overall returns with all the heroes and such! Most of it is still paper money for now (especially the heroes which are NFTs), but I have been taking regular profits and spreading them to other projects (e.g $CRV).
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Tue Jan 04 07:22:10 I skimmed it, will do a deeper read later today!
nhill Member	Tue Jan 04 09:49:38 $JEWEL can't stop, won't stop. $22!
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Tue Jan 04 10:08:52 Which is great, because OHM is getting rekt and I am afraid that TIME is also going down the shitter. I gotta let TIME, while I am in the green!
nhill Member	Tue Jan 04 10:23:32 'Tis a fair action. I derisked my $TIME bags out, too. Too much drama w/ my bag and spotting better opportunities. The $TIME chart can be deceiving as it doesn't account for rebases. Here's a chart to see the actual value of $TIME+rebases: http://www.tradingview.com/x/n0lZGHa2 Looks like it's sitting on HTF support right now, and if that breaks, probably another 30% leg down from here. It may bounce from here, but good to get some profits pared off either way!
nhill Member	Tue Jan 04 10:26:57 What's crazy is that the first $TIME I bought was around $500 on that chart (now $110,842). Epic trade. I bought within an hour or two of the stealth launch (first 500 addresses to hold IIRC). Wish I would have loaded up. I had no idea at the time, so only bought 1 at the time. But I could have made a million dollars on around a $5000 investment, had I seen this coming.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Tue Jan 04 10:28:08 How does that work, 11K?
nhill Member	Tue Jan 04 10:30:32 That $wMEMO chart above? It's the wrapped version of $MEMO, so it increases in value on each rebase instead of increasing in quantity. Basically the wrapped version of $OHM tokens reflect the rebases in their price. Easier to track for tax purposes and such.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Tue Jan 04 10:36:39 Oh right I see. Didn't notice it said wMEMO.
nhill Member	Tue Jan 04 10:36:44 This is why I say the rebases are mostly smoke and mirrors. They are necessary from a protocol perspective (as in, it's the way they distribute rewards from the treasury), but they obfuscate the true value of the token. The wrapped versions fix this.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Tue Jan 04 10:45:51 But that does not look right. So holding wMEMO over the same time period from december, you would still have done better dollar wise that MeEMO?!
nhill Member	Tue Jan 04 11:06:31 They are both the same-- wMEMO just has a dollar value attached to it because people have made liquidity pools for it, whereas $MEMO doesn't have a dollar value, it has an index value shown on http://app.wonderland.money/#/dashboard And you can multiple your $MEMO by the index value to see how many $TIME you own. So, for example, the index value right now is 8.46. I bought and staked my first $TIME at $500 when the index was at 1.00. So that means if I convert my first $MEMO back into $TIME, it's now worth 8.46 $TIME. So I paid $500 initially for 1 time, but the rebases turned it into 8.46 $TIME, and the new value of $TIME is $3000. So it's appreciated 5X and rebased 8.46X, meaning my initial $TIME has increased in value 42.3X. $wMEMO does this all automatically and is what is used when you want to provide $TIME as collateral or have liquidity for the staked version.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Tue Jan 04 11:57:40 Haha it looks so deceptive, but of course I was not thinking right.
nhill Member	Tue Jan 04 12:04:29 I've only recently wrapped me head around it tbh :D
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Tue Jan 04 12:15:37 Ok now I have "too much" stable coins and everything nice has already mooned. I don't have the balls to buy Jewel at 22 lol, but that would be the one position I have that I would mind having more of. Maybe with a jewel stable coin pair. I should look into to $VAL since it is trading so low. That article was interesting, I am set on the L1's he predicts. I have read a few predictions like that and I see some reoccurring predictions, which may reinforce each other: DAOs, the decentralized stable coins, IBC, and the Dani masterplan. You know what I don't hear anyone talk about? Polkadot and the para chains.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Tue Jan 04 12:19:46 Which is weird, there seems to be at least on the surface a unique aspect to it with the para chain auction to bid for slots on Polkadot. But maybe that isn't so cool at least in the short term.
nhill Member	Tue Jan 04 13:16:56 I don't know too much about Polkadot, but, from what I do know about it, I'm bullish on it for 2022. $SOL is probably the most tired coin right now, not so bullish on it medium term. I think $NEAR and $FTM will continue to close the gap there.
nhill Member	Tue Jan 04 13:18:41 > I should look into to $VAL since it is trading so low. It's basically trading at the value of it's treasury and the treasury is in stablecoins. Pretty easy buy right now. The market has basically priced the protocol right at treasury value, so, in other words, literally anything they do would make it bullish. And the DAO is very ambitious: http://vote.vikings.finance/#/
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Tue Jan 04 13:23:30 With it being on Avalanche, I feel like I have no choice, but to start a small position :D
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Tue Jan 04 13:36:01 How big have gone with VAL?
Habebe Member	Tue Jan 04 13:52:53 I have to start going over these again, I do still read here more than I post but come income tax I want to dabble a bit. Plus trying tonget my brother in law to take money he would probably gamble away on lotto to crypto. I figure he would get a similar thrill and worst case scenario the odds have to be better than lottery. Even I might buy a Powerball though, 584 million? That's still like 400 million lump sum.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Tue Jan 04 14:00:29 One of my guilty pleasures in crypto is lurking the trading channel of any token/project's discord, when when the token is doing bad/dumping. It's an endless stream of emotions, denial and trolling. lol
nhill Member	Tue Jan 04 14:02:58 > How big have gone with VAL? Just 0.5% now, but aiming for 1%. Too small of a market cap to buy a lot at once so I'm still accumulating. This one could realistically do a 100X if they deliver on the DAO plans (would only put the mkt cap at 100M). Long road to go... it's only a month old, but the potential is there.
nhill Member	Tue Jan 04 14:05:25 Habebe Good to hear from you! :) Allocating capital to a quality project w/ good team and tech is much safer than buying a lotto ticket, but there's no guarantees. Just be sure to diversify, it's the wild west out here. I just got into necc after launch and it already got exploited. Not a mortal wound, but certainly a less than auspicious start. But yeah. Don't want all your eggs in one basket for sure.
nhill Member	Wed Jan 05 15:58:47 And speaking of hacks, someone hacked Harmony One, their staking delegates had about $5M worth of crypto stolen. I sold at 0.29 (the $ONE I had in my DFK LP)
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Wed Jan 05 16:30:07 Not the Jewel? Everything is going down right.
nhill Member	Wed Jan 05 16:37:57 I kept the $JEWEL side, and plan on converting the USDC to $JEWEL once it starts to bottom. Some cascading liquidations right now, not looking good short/medium term here, but $JEWEL should bounce hard once it settles. Just might be a dead cat this time around...so I'm loading for a rocket ship. Eyeing these three ranges: http://www.tradingview.com/x/1qX9yOZu
nhill Member	Wed Jan 05 16:39:40 I'll probably sell that theoretical bounce, though. Still have most my $JEWEL in the gardens and bank. Just sold the $ONE half of my $JEWEL-$ONE pair.
nhill Member	Wed Jan 05 16:41:07 (not sell everything, just the bag I converted from $ONE -> $USDC -> $JEWEL)
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Wed Jan 05 16:48:43 I sold boo ealier and upon your hack news also ONE. But diamond hands kept me from selling more stuff :) look at FTM.
nhill Member	Wed Jan 05 17:00:29 Nice, FTM is bouncing hard. Hope it can sustain the momentum!
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Wed Jan 05 17:02:51 But I have goofed again :P sold too much ONE so I don't have enough for gas fees lol and now I have to send over ONE and of course with the turmoil and panic transactions everywhere it will take 100 years...
nhill Member	Wed Jan 05 17:12:04 http://harmony.supply/
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Wed Jan 05 17:14:55 Thanks! Noticed there have been a lot of failed transactions on Harmony lately and DFK has been very sluggish as well?
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Wed Jan 05 17:17:28 The faucet has exceeded daily limits. It's ok though, I sold the ONE (which is what got me here in the first place lol), there is no panic, so I can wait for the transaction to be validated.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Wed Jan 05 17:20:50 But dam, FTM does not give a fuck it seems. The decoupling I wan't to believe it's real :D There is a trifecta of of people brewing, Andre, Harry and it seems also Dani.
nhill Member	Wed Jan 05 17:28:35 Re: faucet. Darn! Seems like a lot of capital is rotating out of $BTC and $ETH into the quality L1s. Once liquidity gets spread out enough we'll see more decoupling! Harmony has been having RPC server issues for months now...it's annoying. DFK uses the Graph for its subgraph blockchain queries, and Graph doesn't scale well at all. Not sure when projects will learn their lesson, but at the AMA they said they have a new API developed that doesn't rely on Graph and is much faster. We'll see once it hits beta.
nhill Member	Wed Jan 05 17:31:46 $ATOM and $NEAR showing relative strength here, too. Love to see it. $ONE also bouncing here, might have a nice spring developing, but I'm hanging back until knowledge of the hack disseminates more widely.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Wed Jan 05 17:59:52 Sweet the gas fees dropped so low I could swap a little jewel for one. Now I can put the jewel in the bank. I am also not in a hurry, but chances are the DFK hype will carry ONE through this. But I already made so much gain on this, no need to be greedy :)
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Wed Jan 05 18:06:49 730 million USD in liquidation last 24 hours. That is the strange thing, leverage was at an ATH high! Which seems strange, normally leverage isn't this high when BTC is crawling and bearish?
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Wed Jan 05 18:09:46 A lot of greedy fucks were loading up for a massive rally, and got rekt. Well unless they were leveraged in some select alts.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Wed Jan 05 18:10:25 htts://cryptoquant.com/overview/btc-market-indicator/8529?window=day
nhill Member	Wed Jan 05 19:09:33 http://coinalyze.net/snapshot/WUN-7ECn Not seeing a whole lot of confluence on the perps. More long accounts than shorts, funding rate positive, but more stablecoin-margined contracts than coin-margined. Clearly people are bearish, as, even in a long position, if you're stablecoin margined, you're probably scalping.
nhill Member	Wed Jan 05 19:11:50 That suggests to me that this is a relief rally that will trap some liquidity before they flush it down the toilet. Question is how long the relief will last, and how much I should risk off at the top. I'm up to my tits in $JEWEL right now.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Thu Jan 06 05:17:48 Yea things are balancing on the knife edge now. Been looking at some TA's, a theory is that there is critical point around 39k for BTC. Falling below that is invalidating the inverse head and shoulder pattern on the weekly. It's not my own, but I have tried to mirror it here: http://www.tradingview.com/x/9FcJp4JU/ A lot of market FUD in air now, raising interest rates, tech stocks eating massiv dick. Gold is up. New covid strains pop up every month. Ever grande fud is the herpes of market FUD, it never really goes away lol :) I sold all the jewel that was paired with ONE, still have the Jewel-ETH pair and the Jewel that had been farmed thus far in the bank. Sold it into UST. Largest position is still FTM, have not made any more moves beyond selling BOO yesterday and the original principle some days before at 2.49. It seems to still have momentum. Unfortunately LUNA (another large position) is locked in Astroport until start of feb, but I am not as worried about LUNA as it is hopium for large parts of Asia :) it has shown to be pretty resilient and quick to recover. So just gonna have to cope that one.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Thu Jan 06 09:19:57 Higher probability for a narrow quad 4. Commodities have peaked. - McCullough So the question is is crypto gonna be largely range bound, then it makes sense to keep farming some stuff beside stables, or do more people need to get rekt. If you look at the charts the patterns look at lot like in may-june.
nhill Member	Thu Jan 06 10:28:21 http://pbs...JDG9?format=png&name=4096x4096 Yeah, it looks pretty similar :) If the fractal replays, we have another month or so before a true recovery. Looks like the whale bids are in the 39K range for BTC, which would match the fractal for the day 35 spring in that picture. Let's see. I'm happy either way. My portfolio is above break even from BTC all time highs thanks to $JEWEL. The difference between now and May-June is that in May-June there weren't any alts to play. This time around we have some safe havens. :)
nhill Member	Thu Jan 06 10:37:30 My guess for the bottom is ~$3000 ETH and ~$38000 BTC. The bids are too deep once we hit 39K to fall very far. Of course, the bids could change or be spoofed. In that case, may God have mercy on our souls.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Thu Jan 06 10:50:41 So from a risk management perspective have you done any reallocation? I am currently 35% stables. The ONE hack looks like the market is taken that in stride. Don't you feel like hacks and their effect on the price are the flip of a coin? Sometimes you eat dirt, sometimes it's meh. You would think hacking validators, the heart of the network, would cause some panic? Followed by Fed FUD and dumping, but pretty much nothing has happened with the price, I think, that wouldn't have happened from the market dumping. *shrugs* You are very correct we do have options now and the decoupling is emerging in some manner. The common denominator is the high risk aspect. Anyway, this is the first dumpage I have managed to stay ahead of, not through any analytical skills of the market or TA, but by simply curbing my own greed and taking cues from my own emotions. If I am getting euphoric and think I am so smart, it's time to sell some stuff. Thanks for the advice about being liberal with taking profits :)
nhill Member	Thu Jan 06 11:13:55 Sure thing! It's always tough to take profits. Fighting the FOMO and emotions is most of the game. :D I haven't done any serious reallocation. I've been taking profits on both $JEWEL and $MAGIC but rebuying on the dips here. Also took profits on $METIS. I'm still ~10-15% stables, though, as I bought some more $JEWEL last night with my profits. It's my stablecoin right now ;) The number of new wallets on Harmony One is exploding, so it looks like that buoyed up any potential selloff from the validator hack. What concerns me is that they don't know how it happened. I usually sell on news of a hack/exploit and it almost always works out. Both $ICE and $TOMB I sold after their exploits and it ended up saving both position. After the $TOMB exploit I sold at 0.7 FTM and then rebought at 0.3 FTM, for example. This one doesn't appear to be a good decision, but hack + overall market selloff was enough for me to take the chance and sell the bag. The way I look at these situations is that selling my bag is like paying an insurance premium. Maybe I'll get a payout from it, maybe not. But at least I had peace of mind. :)
nhill Member	Thu Jan 06 13:12:19 Well I guess $JEWEL got offended at me calling it my stablecoin, as it just popped 8% since I said that, lol.
nhill Member	Thu Jan 06 13:16:58 These are the best times to pay attention to relative strength on the dip. $MANA $ONE $ATOM $NEAR $AKT $MATIC $FTM $SCRT are all showing good relative strength. I have all of those except $MATIC right now. Well, I don't have $ONE directly, but $JEWEL tends to correlate on the swings up, and is showing relative strength on its own.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Thu Jan 06 13:32:46 Well I bridged over the assets from my BOO sell off over to DFK >:)
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Thu Jan 06 13:53:06 I got some stuff on osmosis DVPN, Osmosis and Atom. I unbonded them this morning, just in case, if things keep up like this I will put them back. I added the MATIC pair to DFK.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Thu Jan 06 14:00:08 Announcement on vikings finance. You can wrap your staked VAL and then stake the wsVAL and get paid dividends. I believe this is something they are talking about over at Wonderland as well. Bullish :D
nhill Member	Thu Jan 06 14:31:26 Yeah, at 1.7M market cap, I think $VAL is going to be a banger! Already breaking ground in the OHM-fork ecosystem. There's a reason a held this one through, but dumped all the other forks (including Wonderland). :) Always look for those asymmetric risk/reward ops! The fact that all of it's treasury is $MIM (or $MIM-$VAL) made it the easiest thing to buy during the selloff. Nice on Osmosis. I love that DEX. I have some DVPN, OSMO, LUNA, ATOM, and AKT on there. Felt like a fool holding and accumulating AKT and ATOM for half of last year, but it's finally paid off. Up 30% now, after being down bad, -50%, at the worst. The nice thing about farming is I've been farming OSMO the whole time so it balanced out all the bag holding I did. :D I got rekt with necc. I actually only bought their stablecoin and staked it for dividends off bonds...but it lost its peg so I'm down -60% on a stable, and they are shutting down the protocol to relaunch it later in the year. Cool protocol though, still bullish on it if they can get the kinks worked out. Most of the $NEAR action is happening on Aurora now. I think native $NEAR is overlooked right now. I've had bags on ref.finance for about half a year (native NEAR) and they are starting to pop. Specifically the OCT-NEAR LP (along with the ref farm token) has been showing strength. But Aurora is really cool. It's the first EVM chain that has free gas as far as I'm aware, so having something like necc on Aurora would have been awesome for people wanted to leverage trade with small accounts, but not use a CEX.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Fri Jan 07 09:48:45 I bit the bitter pill and cut KLIMA loose, bridged over the remains to Aurora, put it in the Aurora-Tri pair. Impressive buying pressure on ONE and ATOM. NEAR related tokens and FTM are also holding strong.
nhill Member	Fri Jan 07 10:11:36 Sucks, but usually it's the right decision. I moved some capital into $REGEN on Osmosis last night. It's my new green crypto allocation :p
Habebe Member	Sat Jan 08 18:19:42 Damn, Etherium looks cheap at almost 3k!
nhill Member	Sat Jan 08 19:07:18 Ethereum* And yes, 3K is a nice deal. :) Won't be at these levels for very long, IMO.
nhill Member	Sat Jan 08 19:09:35 "nhill Member Thu Dec 30 15:34:03 Also bidding $wsVAL Entry price: $86.76" +12% while BTC and ETH dumps. What will $VAL do in a bull market? Imagine the smell.
nhill Member	Sat Jan 08 19:10:07 wsVAL Price now: $97.36 :)
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Sat Jan 08 19:11:37 No quad 4 concerns?
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Sat Jan 08 19:13:05 I am very happy with VAL :D, also with ONE and JEWEL, I still do not understand how that validator hack just did not register at all.
nhill Member	Sat Jan 08 19:18:01 Definitely have quad 4 concerns on trending basis, but right now there's too much liquidity at these levels for me to be concerned short term. But I'm going to be taking profits and allocating to stable farms more heavily going forward until we see how it shakes out.
nhill Member	Sat Jan 08 19:22:29 As for the $ONE validator hack, the market doesn't seem to care, but I do. Not going to allocate heavily into $ONE until I see a good post-mortem and see that they have the technical chops to diagnose and fix the problem. It may rally, but if the bug/exploit/hack happens again, then I can't imagine it holding. Who knows, might be a delayed dump as people wait for their tokens to be released from validators? Either way, there's L1 allocations like $FTM and $NEAR that have same or similar upside without this looming risk.
nhill Member	Sat Jan 08 19:27:28 I suspect a lot of the price action is from people buying $ONE to play DeFi Kingdoms.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Sun Jan 09 01:17:22 Considering leverage is still the same, there must be a lot of short positions. Time for a short squeeze? :D
nhill Member	Sun Jan 09 03:38:58 Not yet, but if we grab that liquidity around 39K, it'll be rekt city!
nhill Member	Sun Jan 09 03:44:03 Decoupled or not, the majority of fiat ingresses into $BTC. So $BTC determines whether or not crypto is in a bull/bear market for now. Things like $JEWEL would normally be trading for 2-3X the current value if we were in a bull market. It's admirable how much it has maintained it's fiat-denominated ground despite the lack of significant liquidity on CEXes. This is bordering on a medium term bear market so far, much akin to the May-July action. Fractals rarely play out this cleanly, FWIW. I think it's more likely that price decouples from that fractal than it continues replicating it.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Sun Jan 09 10:09:30 I panic sold everything into canned tuna and beans.
nhill Member	Sun Jan 09 13:35:31 Oh no. Another one bites the dust :( P.S. Dry beans keep better than canned ;)
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Sun Jan 09 13:50:39 Scammed even in buying beans. Didn't do my research! I put some more in trisolaris. Mostly in the USDT pair and some in the near-tri pair. Still 22% pure stables. Let us see what Monday brings.
nhill Member	Sun Jan 09 16:40:36 Haha. Nice. Trisolaris has had some nice farming conditions lately, relative to the rest of the market. This was a weird pullback for me so far. Normally I'd be highly allocated to stables but I'm using $JEWEL as my stable...staked in bank for the $CRYSTAL airdrop, and possible gen0 raffle.
nhill Member	Sun Jan 09 16:43:20 I really hope we can push Bitcoin into the 39K range to catch all those bids, should they be real. That much liquidity injected into the market would buoy up the ecosystem for a few months, and absorb all the sellers, then trigger a short squeeze once sell side bids dry up. Otherwise, I think we'll simply range until it gets pushed down there. It's too tempting for the exchanges to not grab the liquidity.
nhill Member	Sun Jan 09 17:22:43 http://www.tradingview.com/x/cK6KbMl8 Bidding $DPX @ $2898 Just an entry, plan on averaging into this one. With necc failing, I'm looking for a new options trading position.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Sun Jan 09 17:26:46 Ranging is good though imo, since that is what the alts need to move up. All these recent gains in our favorite alts took place while BTC was ranging, after it took a massive nose dive. I am good with either scenario tbh, which I guess you are too and that is why you have not moved to stables :) Either BTC ranges and the alts keep having a party and we are liberal in taking profits, or we dip to 38k have a massive liquidity fueled rally that keeps up the steam for a bit longer. But can you see a third scenario, where the rally from 38k doesn't last that long and comes back down to these levels?
nhill Member	Sun Jan 09 17:30:07 > But can you see a third scenario, where the rally from 38k doesn't last that long and comes back down to these levels? Yes, if there's a general macro risk off (quad 4), that is what I'd expect to happen. Which is why I'll probably be liberal taking partial profits early in the rally. > I am good with either scenario tbh, which I guess you are too and that is why you have not moved to stables :) Indeed!
nhill Member	Mon Jan 10 11:56:50 Crazy volatility right now. Really looks like someone's trying to claim that liquidity around 39K but the market simply won't let them. $NEAR $TRI $REGEN $ATOM holding down the fort for me now. Got my first $JEWEL dip around $15 that I was looking for an entry into.
nhill Member	Mon Jan 10 11:58:51 $VAL cares not because the treasury is in stables. Still up ~10% but not moving much in either direction. If this keeps dumping, $VAL might be the best safe haven. Stable on the downside, crypto on the up.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Mon Jan 10 12:44:14 Yea I have been watching VAL closely, it is unfazed by the volatility. Chances for rugs and bugs are low, so definitely an option. "Really looks like someone's trying to claim that liquidity around 39K but the market simply won't let them." How/what does mean in practical terms?
nhill Member	Mon Jan 10 13:26:14 Talking about orderflow. I like to use http://coinlobster.com/combined.html and group the price by $1000. There's about 3000 BTC worth of liquidity in the $38,000-$39,000 range. That's dangling fruit for all exchanges to grab, as they get a cut if those orders are filled (and the people that placed the orders will be pleased to get a fill). Below that, there's not many bids to be seen, and the 38-39K range has more bids than asks in the 42-43K range. These are just the pieces of the puzzle. But what happens if we wick into 38-39K is there's enough liquidity to match the ask side at 42-43K. Fuel for the fire, all it takes is a strike of the match and we're back to 50K.
nhill Member	Mon Jan 10 13:27:46 http://tradingriot.com/orderflow-trading/ Start here^
nhill Member	Mon Jan 10 14:07:07 One caveat: As mentioned in the article, these bids can be spoofed. I'm operating under the assumption that they are real, otherwise, we're fucked.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Mon Jan 10 14:18:23 Powerful tools, this and footprint charts. So when you say the market won't let them, is the implication manipulation, or are you talking in terms of the composite man?
nhill Member	Mon Jan 10 14:26:43 The composite man most represents what I mean, but I wouldn't rule out the former. Orderflow is another trading method with it's own tools (like footprint charts) that is worth learning. Some people do well specializing in just that. Myself, I dabble in everything I can (TA, FA, Orderflow, etc) and then look for confluence.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Tue Jan 11 09:27:51 It is very appealing to my sensibilities to use a wider range of tools to find confluence rather than specializing with one set. I have too little experience, but I imagine that this process provides better precisions?
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