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Utopia Talk / Politics / Crypto ER
murder
Member
Sun Jun 19 15:55:12
Dylan LeClair @DylanLeClair_

Absolute comedy.

@solendprotocol
, a supposed “decentralized” lending protocol built on Solana has “voted” to take over a whales account with emergency powers to eliminate the chance of forced liquidation.

“Decentralized” in name only.

http://twitter.com/DylanLeClair_/status/1538539508462931970
murder
Member
Sun Jun 19 15:59:13

Frédéric Bastiat @BTCHodler4

What? They vote to steal his funds?

http://twitter.com/BTCHodler4/status/1538543688543940608


Yes, yes they did.

Habebe
Member
Sun Jun 19 16:06:02
Private wallets. Everyone sees their value now.
murder
Member
Sun Jun 19 16:09:30

If they did, we wouldn't keep seeing these stories damn near daily.

Habebe
Member
Sun Jun 19 16:10:26
Ok, many people now see their value.
nhill
Member
Sun Jun 19 17:44:30
Yep, locking your tokens in a smart contract is the same as giving up your private keys. You have to be aware of the counterparty risk there. Most "decentralized" protocols are simply controlled by monetary interests because we don't have Proof of Humanity yet, which would actually decentralize the voting process.

This person gave up their coins to the Solend contract, and now they have lost them.

But, to be fair, they were already lost. He overleveraged his position and got liquidated. This vote is to perform the liquidation off-chain so it doesn't drain the on-chain liquidity pools.

It makes sense, to a degree. The guy wasn't getting any coins back due to his own decisions in not providing collateral on the decentralized margin call. What's left is a matter of process.

I don't like the precedent here, personally, but he lost already no matter what happened.
nhill
Member
Sun Jun 19 17:46:07
>What? They vote to steal his funds?

This is a misunderstanding. They voted to liquidate his funds in a different manner compared to the usual liquidation process. He lost his funds by taking out too big of a secured loan on them, and the funds lost enough value to initiate a margin call.
nhill
Member
Sun Jun 19 17:48:48
This one is a bit more click-baity than the usual problems with these "decentralized" protocols that allow single entities to accumulate enough governance tokens to centralize it.

The saddest instance I've seen of this was a decentralized insurance protocol voting to NOT payout the insurance people bought to secure their LUNA funds.

The protocol had a vote and people voted to act as if LUNA didn't get liquidated. Everyone that purchased insurance lost, and the insurance providers won. The protocol itself lost completely, as it died shortly after the exit scam.
nhill
Member
Sun Jun 19 17:53:11
There is a another tragedy brewing here, though, now that I look into it deeper.

He got liquidated at $21 per $SOL. $SOL now trades for $34.

The best course of action would be to allow him to survive the liquidation since they haven't even executed it yet.

They're going to make a killing liquidating the $SOL for $30+. Despicable action. Technically it makes sense (because it did hit his liquidation price, so they own the funds now as per the smart contract and terms of service), but it would not hurt them at all to give this person back his collateral and allow him to pay down the loan.

I hope they do right by that.
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Sun Jun 19 18:02:14
Sanity check: when we say "things are so early" we really mean it's *too* early. You have to be a degenerate on some deep level to turn "real" money into monopoly money and "farm" a variety of other monopoly "currencies" on websites with wizard cats and 8bit games. Fortune favors the bold :)
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Sun Jun 19 18:03:15
Full disclosure, the bold and the brave also get rekt a lot more.
Habebe
Member
Sun Jun 19 18:20:23
What was that GoT's quote.

Not too many really great knights live a long life. Nor many shitnones either. There are a few in the middle.

Something to that effect.
nhill
Member
Sun Jun 19 18:22:46
Yep, I tried to emphasize that (see my thread series from last year, titled, "Another reason NOT to invest in crypto") from the getgo. I don't recommend it for investing, but I do find it valuable exploring the frontier and getting a feel for what's going to coalesce in the future. All the hacks and rugs have shown us this is the Wild Wild West.

This is why I emphasized risk management, diversification, and owning your own private keys (or vetting the smart contracts to which you entrust your digital assets).

But most of all, I emphasized not going ape into it. The entire market often corrects -70% or more, which equates to about -99% for the majority of alt coins.
nhill
Member
Sun Jun 19 18:23:40
"#PlatypusNFT Minting Soon

Priority Sale: 27 Jun, 3pm UTC; price: 250PTP
Public Sale: 28 Jun, 3pm UTC; price: 500-200PTP (Dutch-auction)
Total supply: 10K
Save the Date & catch your Platypus hero!"

This is a mint to check out Nimatzo, not sure how crowded it'll be. But around $30-50 to create utility for your farms.
jergul
large member
Sun Jun 19 18:52:36
"we don't have Proof of Humanity yet"

We do actually have that. But we dont have it in a form that can be monetized in a ponzi scheme without running foul of criminal law.
nhill
Member
Sun Jun 19 18:59:49
Yes I understand the previous paradigm quite well, I helped build it :)
nhill
Member
Sun Jun 19 19:04:06
Talking about the future here, my man. But if we want to shoot the shit talking about my time as a programmer at a core financial software provider (most work was white label licensed for various entities), I’m down. You should see the gross encryption schemes employed by many banks core software. It was truly remarkable how naive it was.

Thankfully we don’t have those issues as the new paradigm has strong encryption by default. Wait until I regale you with the story of us obtaining a world class certification by cheating on it. I only learned of it after I had left, but I have first hand accounts. ;)
nhill
Member
Mon Jun 20 09:34:02
The latter story is pretty interesting and very sad. There's a global entity (worth over 150B) that provides certification services to allow banks to connect to another over the web (instead of through SWIFT, although that underlies). The web banking software for the company needed to obtain that certification to meet an RFP (request for proposal).

Since the certification was an API test (basically they provided endpoints and you had to go through each workflow, such as transferring billions from one bank to another). My boss decided that it'd be easier to reverse engineer the response/request flow answers instead of fixing all the bugs in our web software that was causing us to fail the certification.

So the company ended up obtaining a "safe banking" billion dollar certification for the software by not actually fixing bugs that was causing the failure, because it was a jumbled mess of a codebase, by "passing" the test. Last I checked they still had the certification.

This is the type of the iceberg, some of the dirtier stuff of which I was made aware I couldn't type in a public forum.

Crypto, does indeed, fix this. A similar certification that would be made in the next paradigm would require smart contracts being executed-- you can decompile smart contracts and verify that the logic is being executed properly instead of this naive request/response method.

People like you, jergul, have no idea how bad the current state of financial infrastructure is (in every country, we took on tons of European contract too), because you've never seen the duct tape holding it all together.
nhill
Member
Mon Jun 20 09:36:09
An RFP, in case anyone's unfamiliar, is a request businesses put out to a group of other businesses. The receivers have to prove they meet the specifications in the proposal and then provide a quote for how much the service would cost.
nhill
Member
Mon Jun 20 09:41:46
So by meeting the standards of the request without having to spend development work on it allowed my boss to provide an undercut on the quote and obtain the contract.

Of course, like most stuff in financial services, these are essentially handshake deals made on a golf course.

At that company, the software developers were mainly for show-- basically they showed us off when giving people tours ("and here's our engineers") but the department was so underfunded and undertooled that we didn't accomplish much of anything. In fact, the entire industry was so bad, that when I took our core banking piece of software and converted it to modern technology (through a wrapper layer, because nobody wanting to touch the core which was written in an ancient language, COBOL), the resulting software obtained national awards and recognition for bringing the industry forward. Of course, my former boss took all the credit and went on a national speaking tour talking about how "he" did it, even though I soloed the whole thing.
nhill
Member
Mon Jun 20 09:43:15
The kicker is that essentially all I did was provide lip gloss for a still completely broken core software that was running on mainframes in the banks. The "encryption" running on this core software wasn't actually encryption, it was obfuscation and very easy to crack.
nhill
Member
Mon Jun 20 09:45:22
The layer I put on top of it had enhanced security, in the sense that I talked to a microservice layer which was fully RSA encrypted. But all that did was reduce the surface area to the microservice layer which was talking to the same piece of shit core software.

And you wonder why I went into crypto? Lol. So much financial inefficiency and insecurity will be solved with crypto. Wait and see, I make very few sweeping predictions and don't strike out on them.
nhill
Member
Mon Jun 20 14:12:46
"If 3AC did get its positions bailed out, we’ll probably see a face-ripping rally over the next couple weeks, like +40-50%. Most people stopped buying (DCA) waiting for their positions to get flushed down the toilet."

One qualifier for this: 3AC is probably not the only big fund in a precarious position, it's most likely the only one we know about. If other turds float to the surface, we'll have the same demand shock happen again and it'd probably go to new lows as people bail out of their swings.
jergul
large member
Mon Jun 20 14:27:53
nhill
I have no issues with blockchain technology. Its the ponzi scheme monetization attempts I find ludicrous.

Ludicrous in a big picture kind of way. Like in a 27% of all crypto is held by 0.1% of investors kind of way.

I recognize that it is very possible to do well in the seams between the 0.1% and the idiots. Which you have done. Kudos.

I have wondered your trigger. Complete and utter disillusionment fits :).
Habebe
Member
Mon Jun 20 14:37:10
Jergul, I think you have some legitimate gripes there.

NFT tech, in my limited knowledge of it seems great. But there is clearly a romanticized view of it IMHO where something has value just because it uses that technology. Im talking about the bad art here.

The ownership tech is great but the underlying assets often seem dumb. In the same manner that the internet is a great technology that changed the world, but there are plenty of shitty websites that have existed.
nhill
Member
Mon Jun 20 14:52:44
jergul, ah okay, well now I understand your position better! We are in agreement there. Most of crypto is obfuscated ponzi schemes with no path to a recurring revenue source or to justify a security offering.

I'm hoping to spot at least a few with long-term staying power, but I admit I'd have to have some luck to do so because over 99% will be gone or made irrelevant within years. Part of the excitement is navigating the various chains and trying to spot the potential, knowing that there's a high probability of abject failure from a hack, rug, or unsustainable design.
nhill
Member
Mon Jun 20 14:53:18
I was particularly interested in efforts to make a crypto-native reserve currency (still am). There was a project last year that tried and failed spectacularly (Olympus DAO). The whole goal is to make the crypto reserve the deepest liquidity pair (since all crypto offerings have native pairs due to how automated market making algorithms work) and one people use by default. Unfortunately the team had good ideas but lack of execution, made some sloppy coding and operational mistakes and went bottoms up. Investor confidence in the protocol developers is the #1 thing a native reserve will need, without that it's pointless. But I digress :)
nhill
Member
Mon Jun 20 14:55:14
Stablecoins are still the dominant reserve currency in crypt. Just like in the real world, so it makes sense, but I do think crypto can innovate on the dollar without needing "the power of the US military backing it". The power of code can be more powerful and predictable than our military ;)
nhill
Member
Mon Jun 20 14:58:20
That said, I'm talking about token offerings here, and I understand you are more specifically excited about blockchain tech. The tokens are important part of the ecosystem right now in order to incentivize projects (and also facilitate transfers), but eventually it'll mature beyond that.
nhill
Member
Mon Jun 20 15:02:01
"NFT tech, in my limited knowledge of it seems great. But there is clearly a romanticized view of it IMHO where something has value just because it uses that technology. Im talking about the bad art here.

The ownership tech is great but the underlying assets often seem dumb. In the same manner that the internet is a great technology that changed the world, but there are plenty of shitty websites that have existed."

The underlying assets are dumb because JPEGs were an easy way to utilize the ERC721 standard, which supports metadata that can easily point to a URL.

That said, NFTs like CryptoPunks and EtherRocks will always have some significance as the first NFT projects to gain wide adoption. They have true collectible value as they are part of history. The rest are mostly copycats, but there are some good art projects if you dig deep under the pile of shitty pixelated art projects.
nhill
Member
Mon Jun 20 15:04:00
Similar to art in the real world, you can collect ones from artists you like and pieces you find attractive. Or you can be a sophisticated art collector and purposely target pieces with a legitimate thesis of being collectible, stripped free of all the silliness (discord communities, free t-shirts, etc).
McKobb
Member
Mon Jun 20 16:49:25
too bad 90% of all mints are plagiarized garbage money grabs. and NFT's was sold as a way to give artists a way to protect their works lol
nhill
Member
Mon Jun 20 16:56:06
Growing pains, but yes. Rarible has been good to artists, for example, but hasn't picked up as much steam as the money grabs on OpenSea.

There are many artists able to support themselves through rarible. Just have to tolerate the get rich quick money grabs until they get regulated out or the ecosystem begins to self-regulate.
nhill
Member
Mon Jun 20 16:57:05
And I mean the original 1/1 works on Rarible, not the money grabs they also have listed ;)
Habebe
Member
Mon Jun 20 17:04:46
Nhill, Yes we agree, there are some good pieces of art. But from what Ive seen, its mostly overpriced. (even for art) and mass produced junk.

The best jpegs NFTs Ive seen are for niche fans. If your really into TMNT or classic NES rpg's for example, yeah it's cool to get some NFTs for community art.

But that's just my opinion. The bad is over shadowing the good, and the prices seem insane, even for art standards.Which is a wierd market place to begin with IMHO.

Habebe
Member
Mon Jun 20 17:06:17
And I get it, it started as a way to promote the tech and has collectible one day nostalgic value.

It just seems to have gotten abused IMO to absurdity.
nhill
Member
Mon Jun 20 17:14:28
Yes, it has. It went through a massive speculation phase which led to thousands of copycat projects springing up. Hopefully that cycle is mostly dead. But there'll always be projects where the art is just a badge for admission. Sometimes the shitty art is the "badge of honor" for people, like those ugly ass bored apes. But if you own an ape you get into exclusive clubs and events, so people pay a lot for it. Because a lot of people got rich in crypto.

Seeing an NFT sell for 50ETH seems like a lot to us, at $50,000, but there are ETH-natives (early adopters in 2015, I was not one of them) that ETH is like kid money to them because they have thousands, sometimes millions of ETH tokens (they only cost $10 back then, and was easier to mine). The prices in USD seem wild, but to them it's not a big deal. If you can create a project where you're able to attract 10,000 crypto natives, the price is going to go up very quickly.

Not saying that's a good or bad thing, just that's how it works. Personally, I'm not a fan of JPEG NFT projects. But remember, those aren't all the ERC721 standard can do. Just an early example.
McKobb
Member
Mon Jun 20 17:16:59
it's a supply side issue imo. people have built up a lot of crypto wealth with few, if growing, avenues to spend it.

enter NFT's to relieve the pressure, gain acceptance and market confidence? hmmm not so much. regardless it is in no way an 'art' vehicle it is sold as, just another grift
nhill
Member
Mon Jun 20 17:18:53
It's a technology experience growing pains, just like every other major technological shift of the past century. You may remember email.
nhill
Member
Mon Jun 20 17:21:56
The way you can look at it, in terms of personal computing, is that crypto is in the phase where the antivirus software hasn't been developed or disseminated widely.
nhill
Member
Mon Jun 20 17:28:01
You will eventually be able to install software into your wallets that will look for nefarious and suspicious code paths, and prevent you from executing them. Some wallets have this in rudimentary form already. Standards will be developed and enforced automatically through code. Remember how people didn't trust putting credit cards on the internet for shopping? Then they came out with the "Verisign Secured" stuff and boomers began to trust it?

Time is a flat circle. :p
Habebe
Member
Mon Jun 20 17:37:39
FYI both robinhood and Webull now offer wallets.
jergul
large member
Mon Jun 20 19:00:41
I have been excited about blockchain since I realized the tech could track - in real time - every datapoint on ocean caught fish at an individual fish level. This is pre-bitcoin. Hence my initial interest in token creation.
nhill
Member
Mon Jun 20 20:54:28
Great use case. Sneakers too.
nhill
Member
Tue Jun 21 15:32:29
http://coi...iased-nft-minting-on-avalanche

Article about the Platypus mint I mentioned above.
nhill
Member
Tue Jun 21 15:33:17
Had a hard time finding this thread because murder made it and I thought he didn't care about crypto. Wow murder. One of us now! :D
nhill
Member
Tue Jun 21 15:41:05
http://uto...hread=90053&time=1655670868788

Last thread to keep the chain less broken. (was already broken many threads ago, but I try to keep them linked for some scraper software I run to save these)
nhill
Member
Thu Jun 23 09:41:51
"Assets: $400m. Debts: $2b. Net worth: minus $1.6b"

Seeing unverified reports that this is the final balance sheet for 3AC. Insane. Apparently they had what was originally around 10 billion worth of Bitcoin (on leverage, still unsure the principal amount) with a liquidation price at $24,000, and they never thought the price would get there.

Their BTC liquidations pushed the price straight down from $24,000 → 19K or wherever it settled. No wonder the selling looked so orderly and persistent.

Pretty crazy that they were banking billions on BTC never being in a bear market again. His thesis was that we were starting a "supercycle" where BTC never dips more than 50% because of all the institution money in it.

Turns out it was their institutional money that got us to the local bottom.

I'm assuming other funds are insolvent and getting liquidated, and 3AC is just the first we've seen. But seems like all institution money is mixed to a degree (from all the chains of collateralization and loans), so there's bound to be contagion. Hopefully nobody of their magnitude.
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Thu Jun 23 17:44:25
The frontier claims another fool searching for gold.
murder
Member
Thu Jun 23 18:05:48

"Pretty crazy that they were banking billions on BTC never being in a bear market again."

They probably confused BTC for a store of value. ;o)

nhill
Member
Thu Jun 23 21:31:25
Haha. It is a store of value over long timeframes (for now, but has only about 10 years of significant trading history, may not always be), but that doesn't preclude extended periods of volatility, nor does that insulate one from a bear market.
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Fri Jun 24 18:12:27
Looks like Goldman is going to buy the assets of Celsius.
murder
Member
Fri Jun 24 18:19:19

That is weird.

nhill
Member
Fri Jun 24 20:04:30
They are probably getting them for a nice OTC discount. We're close enough to a bottom that it'll work out as a long term hold.

I don't think we've seen max pain yet. S&P500 just filled the futures from last week gap today. Going to get dumped hard soon IMO. Crypto will follow.
LazyCommunist
Member
Mon Jun 27 03:23:17
Crypto is useless!!

http://nitter.net/latimes/status/1540356576862621699

Three months after opening, this crypto-themed restaurant is no longer accepting crypto as payment.
nhill
Member
Mon Jun 27 16:49:28
PTP with a nice relief rally. +129% in the last two weeks.

Minted my NFTs, if you want one Nim, the public mint is tomorrow.

I didn't get anything rare, 4 commons! Rugged by random numbers :(
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Mon Jun 27 17:18:46
Hear this, Solana is releasing and Android Web3 smartphone.


http://solana.com/news/saga-reveal
nhill
Member
Mon Jun 27 17:22:09
Hmm, looks like OVOM created the phone and Solana paid them a bunch of money to pre-install the software they choose.

Pretty low-effort endeavor but I wouldn't expect them to make real hardware, so understandable.
nhill
Member
Mon Jun 27 17:23:12
Market response appears to be commensurate with the amount of effort. Around +18% from news, not bad, but not much to write home about since most coins had relief.
nhill
Member
Mon Jun 27 17:24:56
Looks like they rebranded the OV1 phone that has been in development for years. Was supposed to be a privacy and security oriented device.

Installing bloatware is not a great way to build up a relationship with the security community.
nhill
Member
Mon Jun 27 17:25:42
But I like the precedent of phones being web3 native.

That needs to happen to ease the user experience, glad Solana got the ball rolling here.
nhill
Member
Tue Jun 28 09:20:09
$PTP, +176% in the past 10 days. :D

I averaged down to $0.11 with my infinite bid. Waiting to buy more if it makes new lows, otherwise, I'm just going to keep generating vote escrow for now.
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Tue Jun 28 19:23:12
Nomnomnom, I made my first buys at 0,15 :)
nhill
Member
Wed Jun 29 16:13:50
Noice
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Thu Jun 30 10:55:36
What is your conservative target for PTP? TDeflation of leverage has me thinking a couple of times about market cap, when one thought that 100 million market is easy peasy in 2021, the same will not fly now.
LazyCommunist
Member
Thu Jun 30 11:42:47
I no longer say that crypto is useless

http://www...y-hack-experts-say-2022-06-30/

SEOUL, June 30 (Reuters) - North Korean hackers are most likely behind an attack last week that stole as much as $100 million in cryptocurrency from a U.S. company, three digital investigative firms have concluded.

The cryptoassets were stolen on June 23 from Horizon Bridge, a service operated by the Harmony blockchain that allows assets to be transferred to other blockchains.

Since then, activity by the hackers suggests they may be linked to North Korea, which experts say is among the most prolific cyber attackers. U.N. sanctions monitors says Pyongyang uses the stolen funds to support its nuclear and missile programmes.
Habebe
Member
Thu Jun 30 11:43:56
A glimmer of hope, eh?

ETH looks bad on the charts

Coinbase delaying pulling $ out of it.
nhill
Member
Thu Jun 30 14:25:09
Nim

I like that train of thought, and you're right. Those trillions wiped out of capital market aren't coming back until we see some easing from the fed (2023-2024 is my guess). I would cut valuations across the board about 50-70%, considering the high beta nature of crypto and S&P being down 20-40% (20 now but I think we'll see worse).

So a reasonable max target for me on $PTP would be around 30 million mkt cap (~200% from here), while taking partial profits at 20 million mkt cap (assuming we get another cycle here while the system is deleveraged).

Right now I'm staking all my $PTP (including the farmed) for vote escrow. I've been averaging down the past 3 months to where my average price is around $0.30 now. I got one of the NFTs where you can unstake your $PTP without losing *all* of the escrow.

I plan on parking my stables here for a while provided they continue to be stable and reliable developers. The nice thing about $PTP is it's flying completely under the radar despite handling the Great Stablecoin Depeggings better than Curve, the incumbent.

Plus the NFTs show they are willing to try new things and continue to innovate. It's pretty rare to find a protocol that is truly something new like Platypus with its coverage model (the ingenious part of that model is that deposits and withdraws are the same as trades, so they can do single-sided staking with reduced risk surface, is very clever)
murder
Member
Thu Jun 30 15:53:39

Bitcoin is down again. I wonder what happened now.

nhill
Member
Thu Jun 30 16:05:41
It's holding the June range still, this is not unusual volatility.

But I wouldn't be surprised to hear about more crypto hedge funds being liquidated this week, which will bring us down to $12,000 a Bitcoin by my estimates
nhill
Member
Thu Jun 30 16:12:12
My plan is still to see a bottom form in July. That doesn't make be bullish, we'll probably wick down and then crab for a year. Probably won't see new highs in crypto total market cap until late 2023 depending on what the fed does.
nhill
Member
Thu Jun 30 19:20:40
http://cryptohayes.medium.com/number-three-511f334d8fae

New Hayes drop
nhill
Member
Thu Jun 30 19:45:35
And, once again he’s beating the same drum I stipulated last year when rejoined the forum. None of this would have happened in DeFi because it’s fair, transparent, and resilient.

We’re learning. :)

Crazy to me that people don’t understand this potential to remove corruption and insolvency risk from the financial system.
nhill
Member
Thu Jun 30 19:46:43
When you remove trust from the equation and rely purely on transparent lending standards executed by impartial computer code, you get a better outcome. This is the lesson to be learned. Don’t let the media proclaim the failure of these centralised companies is evidence of the shortcomings of the good Lord Satoshi. For he saved those who deserved saving.

*chefs kiss*
nhill
Member
Thu Jun 30 19:49:04
Surely the Fed or another central bank could bail out these hedge funds and companies, but these entities dealt in crypto. These entities are not part of the club of TBTF financial institutions, and shall therefore die an ignoble death. But let us not shed too many tears, for we have learned through these trials and tribulations that the promise of a new decentralised financial system has weathered yet another test.

Man has a way with words
nhill
Member
Thu Jun 30 20:04:28
There’s a strong bid on BTC right now, market makers liquidated late shorts it looks like. Expecting more down after this reverse flush
nhill
Member
Thu Jun 30 22:58:49
Nailed it. Down 6% in the past 3 hours since the reverse flush.
nhill
Member
Thu Jun 30 23:00:55
Always a bit sad seeing people getting their money taken from them like that from market makers. But there's a simple solution, stop fking using leverage, get your private keys and coins on-chain and chill the fk out.

Everyone trying to catch falling knives out here is getting chopped up.

I'm angry and sad at the same time, albeit mildly so at this point after repeating myself for years.
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Fri Jul 01 05:40:33
Nhill
Thanks for the feedback. Gonna catch up with Hayes later.

I gonna try to however frequent/infrequent trade BTC et. al and use the profits to buy PTP. This is my plan to march through the drudgery of the macro environment. You got any better ideas? :)
murder
Member
Fri Jul 01 15:08:01

Bloomberg @business

Crypto broker Voyager Digital is temporarily suspending trading, deposits and withdrawals

http://twitter.com/business/status/1542958258448699394

nhill
Member
Fri Jul 01 15:59:50
>I gonna try to however frequent/infrequent trade BTC et. al and use the profits to buy PTP. This is my plan to march through the drudgery of the macro environment. You got any better ideas? :)

It sounds good. I don't have any better ideas, but were I to undertake this I would tweak the strategy a little bit.

1. Keep taking profits in stablecoins, and deposit those in Platypus (or Echidna/Vector, see #3 below).

2. Use that stablecoin bag to average down $PTP, with a 0.01 increment. $PTP is $0.20 right now, and the presale price is $0.08, so I'd plan on at least 12 equal sized buys.

From there, I'd do one of 2 options.

3a. Stake the $PTP to earn vote escrow to boost your yield.

or:

3b. Farm your stables on vectorfinance.io or app.echidna.finance and convert your $PTP rewards to ecdPTP or xPTP (you can convert on TraderJoe if the peg is under 1PTP or convert on the dApp if it is over or equal).

Vector and Echidna can boost your $PTP yield because they have a bunch of vote escrow. But you are taking on another layer of risk. It's up to you if you're okay with that. I haven't seen any red flags from either Echidna or Vector, but I trust Vector more because it was developed by a DAO, not a venture capital funded team.

I'm sticking with Platypus because I have bigger yields than Vector & Echidna (accumulated more vote escrow per tvl than them), but, even if I didn't have the vote escrow, I would prefer to only have to trust 1 layer (see: autofarmer exploits).
nhill
Member
Fri Jul 01 16:05:52
The play here is the bribes. Once protocols can bribe people with tokens to get their vote from the vote escrow, there will be a new source of constant buying pressure over time. I don't think it'll explode upwards like a lot of people do, but having a new source of buying pressure when the protocol is so undervalued (understandably so in the current market conditions) is always a good thing.

The biggest risk are the usual ones. e.g. smart contract risk: it's an anon dev team. They've open sourced & verified their contracts, so that mitigates it a bit.

But the biggest risk to me, ironically, is Avalanche. 3AC were huge into the Avalanche ecosystem, and subnets are met with a lot of skepticism right now. The $AVAX chart is fugly (as are most alt L1s right now, but I think AVAX is one of the worst). $PTP is leveraged $AVAX as it doesn't have any other significant liquidity pools.

The other risk of Avalanche is what we discussed about a few months ago. There's no actual need for more than one L1, and the market will converge upon a single parent chain over time. But that's more of a tail risk that is years away. The L1s will duke it out for a while.
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Fri Jul 01 16:48:27
Yes the tweak suggestion is good. I will just keep it to PTP staking as well.
nhill
Member
Fri Jul 01 16:55:45
Sounds good! And, as usual, try not to keep all your eggs in one basket (aka contract). Nothing is safe. :)

But PTP is my primary play through the bear market. Once it plays out (i.e. bribes released, profits taken), I'll spread it out more by moving the profits elsewhere (but I'll keep the stables there). Even now I don't go over 50%. Don't want to get wiped out by one hack. I'd lose 6 figures if Platypus got hacked or exploited. That would be painful, but I'm taking on extra risk because of the bear market opportunity (and a general dearth of anything else that has similar potential right now).
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Fri Jul 01 17:32:14
Good to be reminded. You know I fought an urge to not retire my PTP stable farm and send it over to Anchor protocol. Yikes! I can't help the fully degenerate ideas that emerge in my head, I can only use reason and principles to filter them. So when LUNA imploded it became another lesson, reinforcing good practice in risk management.

PTP seems like a good bet, very low marketcap, proven idea, ambitious plans. Hmm, where have heard that before... Stay frosty ;)
nhill
Member
Fri Jul 01 17:36:38
I am wondering if Wonderland will make a resurgence this next cycle. As far as I can tell, they've been heads down since the Sifu fiasco but haven't really released much. Their intent now is to be a VC DAO, and sponsor development of new projects. But so far they've all been duds.

Not that I'd touch it with a ten foot pole at this point, more mild curiosity than anything. :)

Glad you skipped the whole Anchor fiasco. I never got around to it either, the guaranteed 20% yield threw up a yellow flag to me, as it wasn't paid out in farming rewards, so, like, where was it coming from?

The market taught us a good lesson there. "If you don't know where the yield is coming from, YOU are the yield." ;)
nhill
Member
Fri Jul 01 17:41:30
http://www...iles-for-chapter-15-bankruptcy

3AC officially is bankrupt. RIP. More coins for the rest of us now :P
nhill
Member
Fri Jul 01 22:30:07
Chuck hasn't posted since he bought Ethereum at 3.1K :(

Tried to impart that the bottom for ETH was maybe going to be ~$1400 and to dollar cost average (and to not use more than 10% of investment on it). I was close, the bottom was $1700 in 2021.

Hope he listened and isn't embarrassed for getting rekt so he decided to stop posting here.

I specifically made threads trying to discourage investing in crypto (while encouraging usage) but it does bother me a lot if someone loses money as a result of what I said.

Hope he took profits at 4K last year. Would have been a nice +20% trade (better than the S&P).

But I guess we don't know until he comes back. IIRC he starting gambling on random coins he found on Coinbase.
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Sat Jul 02 08:53:08
I got the impression Chuck had done pretty well in life financially and he wasn't throwing around that much. It has crossed my mind that he vanished around that time, so who knows.
nhill
Member
Sat Jul 02 20:38:00
He vanished very soon after he bought it. His last post is in this thread:

http://utopiaforums.com/boardthread?id=politics&thread=88125
nhill
Member
Sun Jul 03 00:56:07
I posted a taste in the other thread, but here's my diversified crypto-only portfolio (I keep 50% of my net worth in traditional capital markets, in assets I have already posted last year: http://m1.finance/oEYys02lZzC1 this is a long term hold through the recession):

stSOL-BTC 2% (18.60% APR)
stNEAR-NEAR 2% (21.65% APR)
ABNBC-BNB 1% (18.43% APR)
superfluid ATOM-OSMO 10% (34% APR)
PTP 20% (provides APR for cash in the form of stablecoins, currently 38% APR from acquired $vePTP relative to amount of stablecoins)
DPX-ETH 1% (39.54% APR)

65% Coins Staked on PTP:
=======================
20% USDC (centralized)
10% USDC.e (centralized)
9% MIM (decentralized)
5% USDT (centralized)
5% USDT.e (centralized)
3% DAI (it's mainly wrapper of USDC, not truly decentralized)
3% sAVAX (crypto)
3% BTC.b (crypto)
2% YUSD (decentralized)
2% FRAX (USDC wrapper)
2% MONEY (decetralized)

This is how I am positioned across about 30 wallets (to account for all the NFTs) to absorb the bottom, at which point I will deploy my stables into farms.
nhill
Member
Sun Jul 03 01:04:14
^this is a probable ticket to wealth, but it'll still require careful planning and undertaking an unusually large smart contract risk for the asymmetric risk / reward opp. is why I keep 50% minimum in traditional capital markets, because these types of opportunities make a 65% shave still more than enough to live off.

again not financial advice, simply sharing how I will be positioning at the bottom. I wouldn't recommend copying it, but it may provide inspiration for similar strategies. Please share any iterations ;)
Nimatzo
iChihuaha
Sun Jul 03 07:38:21
What is your reasoning for BNB?
nhill
Member
Sun Jul 03 10:26:30
Binance is hiring over 2000 positions. They won the bear market in terms of cashflow. I've come to the conclusion that exchange run chains are a good candidate for diversification.

I went back and forth between FTM and BNB. May still find an FTM position, as I'm sure Andre Cronje will come back sometime and it'll explode again just like last time he ghosted FTM for a couple years.
nhill
Member
Sun Jul 03 10:31:01
FTM isn't an exchange run chain, obviously. I went back and forth between a more decentralized chain, such as FTM, and an exchange-run chain. BNB is also actively working to increase their level of decentralization (more so than the other exchange chains), & I support that.

The worst thing about BNB is that it attracts most of the on-chain scams in crypto because it was the first ETH fork with cheap gas. But we saw at the tail end of the double top last year that FTM entered that game with the 20+ TOMB forks that basically all rugged. Scammers will go where the audience is, so, even though BNB hosts by default last cycle, it may not be the case. And if we let scammers scare us away from technology, they win. It's a weird balance to strike nonetheless.
nhill
Member
Sun Jul 03 23:43:50
And if you look at closing costs (not absolute bottoms), it had the worst first two quarters since 1962 if you look at traditional metrics (closing costs) which I find to be bullshit as events happen on different time frames and don't neatly fit into "quarters".

Ironically this recession does fit into quarters neatly as it's so intensely liquidity related, which naturally revolve around quarterly bonus and performance structures for hedge funds (e.g. "I'll pay it off by the end of the quarter").
nhill
Member
Sun Jul 03 23:44:38
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